SSP Daily Digest: 1/10

CT-Sen: Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy is sounding very likely to challenge Joe Lieberman in 2012, at least if this WSJ piece primarily on Lieberman’s re-election chances is any indication. It quotes Murphy as “definitely considering” the race and says his decision may be only weeks away, given the nature of permanent campaigning these days. Meanwhile, Paulist economist Peter Schiff (whose rather quixotic bid wound up with him deep in third place in the GOP primary in 2010) is saying he’d like to run for office again, but 2012 won’t be the year, citing the likelihood of a Linda McMahon run and his inability to compete against her money. Finally, Lieberman himself has his mind on his money and his money on his mind, too… he’s hungry enough for money that he’s reaching out to his new friends from the No Labels movement and asking them to consider donating to politicians they don’t necessarily agree with. Interesting argument (especially considering that the No Labels people are probably the likeliest people out there to agree with Lieberman).

MA-Sen: Long-time Boston mayor Tom Menino has occasionally gotten some coverage as a possible opponent to Scott Brown in the 2012 Senate race, but he’s taking his name out of consideration, saying he’ll never run for anything but even more terms as mayor. Menino also offered some warnings to potential Dem candidates about the race, saying “There’s nobody that can beat him.” (Recall that Menino caught some flak for not really deploying the Boston Dem machine full-force on Martha Coakley’s behalf during the special election, so it’s unclear whether he’s truly fearful of Brown or just engaging in a little concern trolling on Brown’s behalf.)

MI-Sen: Here’s another indicator (after last month’s PPP poll that had her mired in the 40s) that Debbie Stabenow could have a tough race in 2012, given the right GOP opponent. A Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit News doesn’t include any head-to-heads, but gives her 37/39 approvals, and a 23% definite re-elect (vs. 43% someone new). Of course, the GOP will need to cough up someone more imposing than Tim Leuliette, the only publicly interested candidate so far.

MN-Sen: I hadn’t heard Rep. John Kline (the GOP Rep. in MN-02, who labors in right-wing anonymity thanks to a lot of cover from noisy neighbor Michele Bachmann) get associated with the 2012 Senate race before, and after today, he probably won’t again. He told a talk radio interview over the weekend that his “plate was full.”

MT-Sen: There’s been an uptick in speculation that Denny Rehberg may not run for Senate after all, given that he just landed a slot as not just one of the Appropriations cardinals (regarded by Beltway insiders as the uppermost tier in the House pantheon) but the subcommittee chair in charge of HHS, letting him carry the banner on any HCR repeal efforts. However, he’s still being coy about his 2012 plans (and in fact getting a little meta about the endless Beltway media parsing of political career planning), saying a decision is “down the road… which is similar to around the corner.”

NE-Sen: This has been pretty clearly telegraphed for a while now, but Republican state treasurer Don Stenberg is saying he’s “quite likely” to get into the Senate race. That, of course, would set up a high-profile primary with another statewide GOPer already a formal candidate, AG Jon Bruning. Meanwhile, GOP state party chair Mark Fahnelson removed an image from his personal blog of Ben Nelson inside a red bullseye. In good Republican fashion, he reaffirmed that he himself, in fact, was the victim in all this.

NV-Sen: Hoping for Sue Lowden to be the 2012 Senate nominee for the GOP? Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, because she’s saying she won’t consider running if Dean Heller is going to run (she would do it only if both John Ensign and Heller didn’t run). Rather candidly, she admitted that she had no shot of beating Heller in a GOP primary. Meanwhile, Sharron Angle has decided that, having had a shot at the big time, another run for the state Senate would just be chicken feed at this point. She says that she won’t seek the seat being vacated by resigning former GOP floor leader Bill Raggio (to whom she lost in a 2008 primary), although without saying anything more about another NV-Sen run or a NV-02 run if Heller runs for Senate.

TX-Sen: Here’s another poll showing a Senator who may have a rough go of it in 2012, although in Kay Bailey Hutchison’s case, the real hurdle is likely to be the GOP primary. A Blum & Weprin poll for various Texas newspapers found Hutchison with a 46% approval among all registered voters, and only 56% among Republicans. Hutchison, of course, has not given any indication whether she’s running for another term or not.

LA-Gov: That gubernatorial election is only 10 months away, and Louisiana Democrats still seem to standing around scratching their heads wondering who their nominee will be. With GOP incumbent Bobby “Kenneth the Page” Jindal sitting on a $7.2 million war chest and, while not super-humanly popular anymore, still in positive territory, willing victims do not seem forthcoming. Dems seem most interested in somebody who can self-finance, which would probably be oft-rumored Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard, although other more remote possibilities include losing Lt. Gov. candidate Caroline Fayard, PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell (who finished 3rd in the 2007 primary), retired Gen. Russell Honore (who was briefly the subject of speculation for a GOP primary challenge to David Vitter last year), and even a return engagement from ex-Gov. Kathleen Blanco.

AZ-08: Best wishes to Gabby Giffords for what will no doubt be a long, slow recovery after this weekend’s shooting. Physicians say that she is rapidly improving and may be removed from her breathing apparatus in several days if progress continues.

ND-AL: This has implications for North Dakota’s House seat, but also potentially for the Senate seat in 2012, if Kent Conrad (last seen ramping up to start advertising already) does a sudden turnaround and opts for retirement. Ex-Rep. Earl Pomeroy (who’s 58) is joining DC law firm Alston & Bird and says “I don’t see myself running for office again.”

NM-02: Similarly, Harry Teague has announced that he won’t run again for his old seat or anything else, saying he has no plans to seek another office. The 61-year-old (and independently wealthy) Teague plans to return to his family oilfield business.

Mayors: Another day, another poll showing Rahm Emanuel way in the lead (albeit not out of runoff territory yet). This one’s from Anzalone-Liszt on behalf of the Teamsters, and while it shows Carol Mosely Braun gaining ground (thanks to dropouts from Danny Davis and James Meeks), she’s still far behind. It’s Emanuel 42, Mosely Braun 26, Gerry Chico 10, and Miguel Del Valle 7. (November’s Teamster poll was Emanuel 36, Mosely Braun 13, Chico 10.) Meanwhile, Chico can now boast an endorsement from Rep. Luis Gutierrez, which seems like a bit of a thumbed-nose at Emanuel (who used to be Gutierrez’s neighbor in the House). And on the other side of the country, San Francisco has a newly-minted interim mayor: city administrator Ed Lee, who will fill in for the next 10 months as Gavin Newsom becomes Lt. Governor. The main thing that clinched it for Lee (who will be the city’s first Asian-American mayor) was his promise not to run for the job in the November election. One of Newsom’s last acts was to appoint a new DA in San Francisco, too (to replace the state’s new AG, Kamala Harris): he promoted police chief George Gascon to that job.

WATN?: Where are they now? On the prison bus, that’s where. At least that’s the case with former Republican House majority leader Tom DeLay, just sentenced this morning to three years on conspiracy charges associated with laundering corporate money into campaign donations.

SSP Daily Digest: 11/24

AZ-Sen: So, that anti-earmark stance from Republican leadership seemed to last a whole week or so, until everybody’s attention had moved onto something else (something about sharks attacking people in airport security lines, maybe). Jon Kyl just got a $200 million earmark to settle an Indian water rights case with the government. Kyl’s defense… and one we should expect to hear a lot from both sides of the aisle… is that it’s technically not an earmark (which seems to have a profanity-style you-know-it-when-you-see-it standard).

CT-Sen: Joe Lieberman is hinting at an independent run as the preferred way forward out of his three-possible-ways-to-lose conundrum. In a recent interview, he said “I’ve enjoyed being an Independent so I guess that’s the most natural way to run, but I haven’t decided,” as well as “I don’t meet all the requirements of either party.” Other insiders, or at least the ones Politico is talking to, say that Lieberman’s choices at this point are essentially retiring or becoming a Republican. (One reason they cite is the recent collapse of the CfL “Party,” which failed to get the 1% needed to maintain its ballot place… although that overlooks the fact that the CfL was, several years ago, hijacked by waggish Lieberman opponents).

FL-Sen: The first announced Republican candidate for the Senate in 2012 is both a Some Dude and a familiar face: college instructor Mike McCalister. If the name rings a bell, he got 10% in this year’s gubernatorial primary by virtue of not being either Rick Scott or Bill McCollum. As for temp Sen. George LeMieux, a reported possible candidate, his current status is still “no decisions yet,” albeit “I do feel a calling to serve.”

KY-Sen: Here’s some pointless post-mortem about Kentucky, but it’s the first I’ve heard any major player from Team Blue say that the “Aqua Buddha” ad was a net liability for Jack Conway. Outgoing DSCC Bob Menendez said his main regret was not asking for better briefings about candidates’ ads, and he cited the anti-Rand Paul ad as a particular “killer.”

PA-Sen: The first announced GOP candidate in Pennsylvania has also surfaced, and he’s also on the cusp between Some Dude and whatever’s one step higher than that. Marc Scaringi was a legislative aide to Rick Santorum back in the 1990s, and is currently a lawyer in Harrisburg. (The article also cites one other potential GOP challenger in addition to the usual Jim Gerlach/Charlie Dent suspects: incoming state House majority leader Mike Turzai, whom you might remember weighing and deciding against a PA-04 run in 2010.) As for Bob Casey Jr., he’s running again, although his main concern for the next year seems to be upping his low-key profile.

NY-23: After making some waves yesterday with saying he was at least considering voting for John Boehner in the floor leadership vote, Bill Owens is now just saying he was “blowing off steam” and will vote for her as long as she promises to focus on jobs. (In other words, he probably got a call from leadership explaining the consequences.)

CA-AG: Kind of a foregone conclusion at this point, given his 40,000 vote deficit, but Steve Cooley has just conceded the Attorney General’s race, with Democratic San Francisco DA and rising star Kamala Harris the victor.

KY-AG: Here’s a surprise: after a few weeks of hype concerning a 2011 battle royale between Jack Conway and Trey Grayson for Attorney General, Grayson suddenly reversed course. Rather than run again for SoS, where GOPers were already lining up, he apparently won’t run for anything, other than the sweet embrace of the private sector.

Chicago mayor: One more poll gives Rahm Emanuel a sizable edge in the Chicago mayoral race. He has 39% support in a Chicago Retail Merchants Association poll, followed by Carol Mosely Braun at 12, Gerry Chico at 9, Danny Davis at 7, and His Accidency, Roland Burris, at 2. The real question here seems to be whether Emanuel can win on Feb. 22 without a runoff (which would be Apr. 5).

AR-St. House: Here’s an interesting situation in Arkansas, where Dems still control the state House (albeit with reduced numbers) but an unusual special election is already on tap. Democratic State Rep. Rick Saunders was apparently going to be given a pass to serve another two years despite being term-limited out, because the guy who won the seat in November, GOPer Keith Crass, did so despite being dead. He beat Dem Larry Williams despite dying during the early voting period. Now Saunders says he’ll resign in early January so a special election can be held (in April at the earliest).

Washington: It looks like all the counting in Washington is finally done, with turnout a whopping 71% (thanks to the mail-in nature of the election, which goes a long way toward evaporating the ‘enthusiasm gap’). Patty Murray wound up winning by just shy of 5%, right where UW’s polling put it, compared with the out-of-state robo-pollsters who saw a much closer race. Dems still control both chambers of the state legislature by decent (but not supermajority anymore) margins, after losing 4 seats in the 49-seat Senate and 5 in the 98-seat House. Three races where the Dem trails (Randy Gordon in the Senate, and Dawn Morrell and Kelli Linville in the House) are apparently going to recount, though, by margins ranging from 47 to 194.

Money: The Dems, after getting outgunned on the dark money front in 2010 by a wide margin, aren’t going to be caught napping this time (and this time, unlike 2008, they seem to have Barack Obama’s tacit approval). David Brock (in his quest to become the left’s answer to Karl Rove) is busy revving up his own 527/501(c)(4) type-thing for corraling large donations from undisclosed donors. The good news: they’ve already lined up $4 million in commitments. The bad news: they’re being led by Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (although maybe she’s better behind the scenes than she is as a campaigner).

History: Here’s a great look back from Greg Giroux at Senate cycles where one party was defending more than 10 seats than the other party (as the Dems will in 2012). While the last three times this happened (2006 2008, 1986, and 1980), the defending party got hammered, many of the prior examples showed little movement one way or the other, including 1976, where a number of incumbents of both parties lost (in the post-Watergate environment) but it all balanced out to zero.

SSP Daily Digest: 11/23

AK-Sen: There’s yet another lawsuit coming out of the Joe Miller camp, this one filed in state court. It essentially rehashes claims he’s already made at the federal level, but adds two new allegations: voters without identification were allowed to take ballots in some precincts, and that in a few precincts handwriting samples suggest that the same person completed multiple ballots. Miller’s ultimate goal is a hand count of the entire race, which could delay Lisa Murkowski’s swearing-in past January. The question, however, is starting to arise: who’s paying for all this? None of Miller’s former friends seem interested any more: the NRSC has gone silent, and the Tea Party Express still offers verbal support but isn’t ponying up any money. Only Jim DeMint continues to offer any financial support (with a Joe Miller fundraising button on his Senate Conservatives website).

MT-Sen: This could complicates matters for Denny Rehberg, turning this primary into an establishment vs. teabagger duel. Two right-wing groups, Concerned Women PAC and Gun Owners of America, have already lent their support to businessman Steve Daines, who has already announced his bid for the GOP nod here.

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has to do it all over again in 2012 (this one was just a special election), and rumors are that former Bush administration official Dan Senor, who spurned a run this time, is interested in a run next time. It’s hard to imagine, if Gillibrand could top 60% in a year as bad as this, that Senor could somehow overperform that in a presidential year.

MN-Gov: The recount is officially on. The State Canvassing Board, whom you all got to know really well in early 2009, ruled that the 8,770 vote lead for Mark Dayton is less than one-half of a percentage point and that an automatic recount is triggered. The count starts on Monday and should end in mid-December, allowing time for swearing in on Jan. 3 (unless things really go haywire). This comes after a variety of legal maneuvering from both sides, including a fast Minnesota Supreme Court ruling against Tom Emmer, in response to his desire to force counties to comb through voter rolls and eliminate votes that were “excessively cast.” No word yet on whether the Board will honor Dayton’s request for ways to streamline the process (and minimize Emmer’s chances for challenges).

MT-Gov: There had been rumors that Democratic ex-Rep. Pat Williams would seek the Dem gubernatorial nomination (potentially setting up a match with his successor, ex-Rep. Rick Hill), despite being 72 years old. He’s now saying that he won’t. Williams is so old-school that he used to represent MT-01, before the state got smooshed together into one at-large district.

CT-05: Random rich guy Mark Greenberg, who finished third in the GOP primary in the 5th this year (although with nearly 30% of the vote), says he’ll be running again in 2012. Added incentive: he says he expects this to be an open seat as Chris Murphy runs for Senate.

FL-17: Newly elected Frederica Wilson is already challenging the old ways of the House… going after the long-standing prohibition against wearing hats on the House floor. She says it’s “sexist,” saying that women’s indoor hat use is different from men’s. Wilson owns at least 300 hats, she says. (If Regina Thomas ever makes it to the House, maybe the Hat Caucus can gain some momentum.)

MD-01: Recently-defeated Frank Kratovil seems like one of the likeliest losses to run again in 2012, especially since the Dem-controlled Maryland legislature is likely to serve him up a much Dem-friendlier district (as many of our in-house mapmakers have suggested). He isn’t saying yes yet, but says he will “consider” it.

NH-02: Another possible re-run is Ann McLane Kuster, who performed pretty well in a narrow loss to Charlie Bass in the open 2nd. There have been lots of Beltway rumors that her run is imminent, and some are pointing to encouragement straight from the White House for her to try again.

NY-01: We’ve essentially finished the absentee ballot count, and the news is very good here: Tim Bishop, after leading by only 15 last night, is now leading by a comparatively-gargantuan 235 with all absentees counted. However, we’re nowhere near a resolution, as attention now turns to the court battle over 2,000 challenged ballots (Randy Altschuler has challenged 1,261, while Bishop has challenged 790). Still, Bishop’s spokesperson is saying they’re “very confident” that they’ve won this one.

NY-23: Yeesh, Bill Owens is actually saying he might vote for John Boehner for Speaker or abstain instead of Nancy Pelosi when it comes to a floor vote, saying Pelosi is too liberal. (This despite saying he voted for her, rather than Heath Shuler, in the caucus vote.) Also, not that it matters at this point, but this race wound up being closer than the Election Day count indicated: Matt Doheny picked up 1,982 previously-unknown votes in the recanvass of Fulton County, taking Owens’ margin down to 1,795 overall, and making it all the clearer that we owe this victory entirely to 3rd-party bearer-of-cat-fud Doug Hoffman.

Odds and ends: The Fix has a massive list of people considering rematches in 2012, most of which we’ve already dealt with before (including Kuster and Kratovil, above). Other names that we haven’t listed include Brad Ellsworth (either for Gov, Senate, or his old IN-08), Christine O’Donnell in Delaware (not unexpected, since she runs every 2 years anyway), Glenn Nye, and Allen Boyd (despite his losing very thoroughly to Steve Southerland).

AL-St. House: The inevitable realignment at the legislative level in Alabama finally happened, and happened all at once instead of slow drips. Four conservative Democrats in the state House changed to the GOP, bringing the GOP numbers up to not just a majority but a supermajority in one fell swoop. The Madison County (Huntsville) Clerk also announced her switch, too.

CA-AG: At this point, it’s all over but the shouting in the AG race, as Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,000 votes (with 500K votes still left to count). While the AP hasn’t called it, LA Weekly has decided it’s a done deal.

Chicago mayor: Roland Burris has aparently thrown his well-traveled hat into the ring for the Chicago mayoral race, as he’ll need a new job in a week or so. Supporters filed his candidate paperwork yesterday, the deadline for filing (although he has yet to officially say that he’s running). Somehow, I can only see this helping Rahm Emanuel, by further splitting the African-American vote (already divided between Danny Davis and another ex-Senator, Carol Mosely Braun).

Redistricting: There’s been some sudden buzz about switching North Carolina to an independent redistricting commission (which, of course, has to do with the GOP seizing control of the state legislature). In what is not a surprise, though, the GOP has no interest in giving up its newfound power, saying that (despite a recent PPP poll showing wide support for such a commission) there isn’t any time to move on the constitutional amendment that would create a commission (something that they generally supported up until, y’know, this month). Also on the redistricting front, check out the Fix’s latest installment in its state-by-state series, focusing today on Indiana, where GOP control over the trifecta is likely to make things worse for IN-02’s Joe Donnelly (just how much worse, we have yet to find out)… and, if they wanted to experiment with dummymanders, possibly IN-07’s Andre Carson, too.

Demographics: Here’s some interesting demographic slice-and-dice from the Washington Post: Dems increased their vote share in big counties (500K+) from 49% in 1994 to 54% this year, but lost even further in smaller counties, from 43% in 1994 to 39% this year. The districts the GOP won were disproportionately older, whiter, and less educated. And on a related note, check out these maps and the interesting ways they represent population density around the U.S. Note any similarities between these maps and where Democratic votes are concentrated?

CA-AG: Maybe Our Last Update?

Hopefully, this is the last update we’ll have to make about the Attorney General’s race!

We went through and did another county-by-county canvass, and we now have Kamala Harris (D) leading Steve Cooley (R) by 37,662 votes, 4,251,331 to 4,213,669. This count is about 100,000 votes ahead of the SoS.

Again we sync up the estimates, and my estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:

  • Butte: +222; the county reports 18,229 ballots left.

  • Del Norte: -1,002 for votes added since November 8.

  • El Dorado: -1,795 for votes added since November 9.

  • Fresno: -8,687 for votes added since November 12.

  • Imperial: -6,089 for votes added since November 6.

  • Kern: -4,831 for votes added since November 8.

  • Marin: -19,108 for votes added since November 8.

  • Mariposa: -267; this is the county’s “final update.”

  • Nevada: -4,730; the county estimated 4,730 outstanding on November 8 but has added 6,692 votes since then.

  • Orange: -53,404; the county reports 912 ballots left.

  • Placer: +27,956; vote counts have not been updated since November 3.

  • Riverside: -11,300; the county reports 18,400 ballots left.

  • San Diego: -44,970; the county reports 27,000 ballots left.

  • San Francisco: -18,892 for votes added since November 8.

  • San Luis Obispo: -826 for votes added since November 12.

  • San Mateo: -26,812; this is the county’s “final unofficial results.”

  • Santa Clara: -18,100; the county estimated 18,100 outstanding on November 10 but has added 18,174 votes since then.

  • Tehama: -1,976 for votes added since November 10.

  • Ventura: -6,142 for votes added since November 11.

  • Yolo: -9,791; the county reports 0 ballots unprocessed.

Therefore, we estimate 428,179 ballots left unprocessed (compared to the SoS’ 671,594.)

The remaining territory is pretty much a wash, with our estimates having Harris gaining 47 votes to pad her margin.

As with last time, the ballots reporting have been more friendly to Kamala than before; she’s doing 0.36% better than we expected her to based on the November 13 canvass and 0.65% better than expected based on the November 8 canvass. Here are the relative swings in each county since the November 13th and 8th updates.

County 11/8 – 11/13 11/13 – 11/17 11/8 – 11/17
San Benito 1.98% 0.00% 1.98%
Alameda 0.75% 0.65% 1.39%
Orange 1.30% 0.05% 1.35%
Nevada 1.42% -0.34% 1.08%
Sacramento 0.70% 0.36% 1.06%
Fresno -0.08% 1.12% 1.04%
San Mateo 0.55% 0.43% 0.98%
Monterey 0.93% 0.00% 0.93%
San Francisco 0.38% 0.30% 0.68%
Inyo 0.64% 0.00% 0.64%
Del Norte 0.00% 0.63% 0.63%
Contra Costa 0.71% -0.18% 0.53%
Ventura 0.12% 0.41% 0.53%
Riverside 0.10% 0.40% 0.50%
San Diego -0.04% 0.51% 0.47%
Merced 0.45% 0.00% 0.45%
San Luis Obispo 0.39% 0.02% 0.41%
Kern -0.03% 0.37% 0.34%
Kings 0.28% 0.00% 0.28%
Santa Barbara 0.28% 0.00% 0.28%
Santa Clara 0.03% 0.23% 0.26%
San Bernardino 0.24% 0.00% 0.24%
Mariposa 0.00% 0.24% 0.24%
Marin 0.18% 0.00% 0.18%
Shasta 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
Tuolumne 0.00% -0.08% -0.08%
Yolo -0.15% 0.00% -0.15%
Los Angeles -0.33% 0.18% -0.15%
Siskiyou -0.16% 0.00% -0.16%
San Joaquin -0.15% -0.02% -0.16%
Imperial 0.14% -0.30% -0.17%
Solano -0.29% 0.00% -0.29%
Yuba -0.35% 0.00% -0.35%
Tehama -0.64% 0.27% -0.37%
Santa Cruz -0.43% 0.00% -0.43%
Amador -0.58% 0.00% -0.58%
El Dorado -0.89% 0.30% -0.59%
Sutter -1.34% 0.20% -1.15%
Tulare -1.38% 0.00% -1.38%

Movers and shakers below the fold.

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Los Angeles 2,135,078 1,135,803 842,854 93,590 49,787 36,946 12,841
Sonoma 138,383 79,052 45,321 35,500 20,280 11,626 8,653
Mendocino 19,097 10,321 6,159 12,358 6,679 3,986 2,693
Marin 102,499 63,668 31,727 7,942 4,933 2,458 2,475
Contra Costa 317,509 169,278 125,519 16,982 9,054 6,713 2,340
Monterey 87,434 47,784 32,266 11,563 6,319 4,267 2,052
Santa Cruz 87,349 54,033 24,218 5,655 3,498 1,568 1,930
Humboldt 35,966 18,011 13,436 13,387 6,704 5,001 1,703
Napa 28,480 14,229 11,711 17,877 8,932 7,351 1,581
San Francisco 254,252 180,762 51,748 2,484 1,766 506 1,260
Solano 109,963 55,825 45,385 5,498 2,791 2,269 522
Imperial 24,344 11,807 10,247 3,097 1,502 1,304 198
Lake 14,980 6,585 6,430 5,372 2,361 2,306 56
San Benito 15,164 7,007 6,759 200 92 89 3
Del Norte 7,878 2,905 4,049 6 2 3 -1
Merced 46,263 18,698 23,540 400 162 204 -42
San Luis Obispo 100,062 37,545 52,335 902 338 472 -133
Sacramento 392,703 176,034 184,727 8,774 3,933 4,127 -194
Orange 842,060 261,964 506,586 912 284 549 -265
Santa Barbara 119,282 51,662 57,104 6,536 2,831 3,129 -298
Tehama 19,093 5,141 11,478 1,023 275 615 -340
San Joaquin 146,789 60,116 71,201 6,844 2,803 3,320 -517
Sutter 23,325 6,849 14,240 1,694 497 1,034 -537
Amador 15,640 4,334 9,238 1,741 482 1,028 -546
El Dorado 73,928 21,681 44,647 2,105 617 1,271 -654
Ventura 247,505 96,609 132,181 6,414 2,504 3,425 -922
Stanislaus 110,462 41,587 59,205 6,980 2,628 3,741 -1,113
Tulare 76,763 22,316 48,368 3,350 974 2,111 -1,137
Shasta 59,536 15,995 37,152 3,400 913 2,122 -1,208
Calaveras 14,501 4,168 8,236 4,918 1,414 2,793 -1,380
Fresno 174,704 62,671 98,351 8,813 3,161 4,961 -1,800
Madera 27,635 8,130 16,872 5,806 1,708 3,545 -1,837
Kern 163,889 44,444 103,680 5,371 1,457 3,398 -1,941
Butte 56,937 20,635 29,626 18,229 6,607 9,485 -2,879
Riverside 455,493 166,883 251,301 18,400 6,741 10,152 -3,410
San Diego 838,571 323,600 435,683 27,000 10,419 14,028 -3,609
San Bernardino 393,156 145,444 207,987 29,000 10,728 15,342 -4,613
Placer 107,703 31,998 66,112 28,056 8,335 17,222 -8,886

SSP Daily Digest: 11/16

AK-Sen: Nothing has really changed with the overall trajectory of the Alaska Senate race, but this is the first day that Lisa Murkowski has been able to claim a “lead” over Joe Miller (even though her victory has become increasingly clear each day). At the end of yesterday’s counting, she had 92,164 votes to Miller’s 90,448. 7,601 were subject to challenge but counted for her anyway (and, if Miller’s lawsuit succeeds, could get reversed), but based on Murkowski’s success at avoiding write-in challenges, is on track to win with or without those challenged ballots.

FL-Sen: George LeMieux, whose year-and-a-half in the Senate is about to expire, is leaving with more of a whimper than a bang, if PPP is to be believed: his approvals are 11/28 (with 61% with no opinion), including 14/24 among Republicans. He’s not looking like he’d have much impact in a challenge to Bill Nelson in 2012, which he’s threatened (which isn’t to say that Nelson is out of the woods, as a stronger Republican will no doubt come along). Among all the appointed Senators, he’s still faring better than Roland Burris (18/57) but worse than Carte Goodwin (17/22) and Ted Kaufman (38/33). (Oh, and if you’re still feeling like we lost out by not having Charlie Crist win the Senate race, guess again: Bob Dole! is reporting that Crist promised him he’d caucus with the GOP if he won the 3-way race. This comes after leaks in the waning days of the race that he’d caucus with the Democrats. Somehow, I expect any day now that Ralph Nader will reveal that Crist promised him that he’d caucus with the Green Party if he won the race.)

IN-Sen: Richard Lugar made it official; he’s running for re-election one more time. Lugar, who’ll be 80 in 2012, probably has more to worry about in the Republican primary than he does in the general election, where aspiring Democrats would probably be more interested in the open gubernatorial seat.

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown will probably have a tougher re-election than his initial election, but it’s unclear which Republican he’ll face. The two who’ve gotten the most press are Mary Taylor, the current Auditor and newly-elected Lt. Governor, or Rep. Jim Jordan (a religious right fave from the state’s rural west), but another possibility that the article broaches is long-time Rep. Steve LaTourette, one of the House’s more moderate GOPers left. Either way, if Jordan or LaTourette were to try for the promotion, that would help the state GOP decide which of their seats to vaporize in the redistricting process (although LaTourette’s, in the northeast corner and surrounded by Dem seats, would be much harder to work with). Ohio’s losing two seats, though, and one more Dem seat is on the chopping block, especially since the biggest population losses have come in the northeast — the likeliest outcome seems to be consolidation of districts that sets up either a Dennis Kucinich/Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich/Betty Sutton mash-up.

PA-Sen: The GOP feels like they have a shot against Bob Casey (who won by a near-overwhelming margin in 2006), given the state’s turn toward the red this year. The big question, though, is who? If Tom Ridge didn’t do it this year when it would have been a gimmee, he certainly isn’t any likelier to do it in 2012. Hotline mentions a couple current suburban Reps., Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both of whom have tenaciously held down Dem-leaning districts that would be prime open seat battles if they left. Failing that, the bench looks pretty empty; they cite state Sen. Jake Corman as interested, as well as talk radio host and behind-the-scenes player Glen Meakem, who cited interest in running for 2010 but decided against it.

MN-Gov: Minnesota’s SoS (a Dem, Mark Ritchie) has laid out the timeline for the recount process. The race will be canvassed starting Nov. 23, and presuming a recount is necessary (which it will be unless something weird happens with the canvass, as Dem Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by less than one-half of a percent, triggering the automatic recount provision), the recounting will begin on Nov. 29.

MD-01: Nothing like teabagger hypocrisy at work: freshly elected with a mandate to destroy the federal government, Andy Harris’s first act in Washington was to demand all the free goodies from the federal government that he’s entitled to, so long as other people are paying for them. At freshman orientation, Harris was observed expressing dismay that his gold-plated health care plan takes a month to kick in.

NY-01, NY-25: Here are a couple more updates from overtime. In the 1st, Randy Altschuler’s lead over Tim Bishop is currently 383, but there are more than 11,000 absentees to be counted starting today, and since they’re all from one county (Suffolk), your guess is as good as mine how they break. In NY-25, Ann Marie Buerkle gained a tiny bit of ground as two GOP-leaning counties reported their absentees; she’s now up 729. Dan Maffei’s base, Dem-leaning Onondaga County, is about to start counting its 6,000 absentees. He should make up some ground, but he’ll need to average 56% among the remaining absentee ballots, while he’s only got 54% in Onondaga so far, though.

DSCC: Dianne Feinstein told the press that Michael Bennet is, despite his previous demurrals, going to be the next DSCC chair. Does Michael Bennet know this? He’s still saying no. The rest of the Dem leadership in the Senate (and the GOP, too) was elected without a hitch today, but the DSCC job still stands vacant.

CA-AG: Things keep looking up for Kamala Harris in California, after a torrent of new votes yesterday from Alameda County (where the Dem stronghold of Oakland is). That batch broke 18,764 for Harris, and only 5,099 for Steve Cooley, which may be a decisive moment in the count.

Chicago mayor: Rahm Emanuel is certainly looking like the early favorite in the Chicago mayoral race, courtesy of an Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Teamsters local (who haven’t endorsed yet). Emanuel is at 36, with Danny Davis at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 13, Gery Chico at 10, James Meeks at 7, and Miguel del Valle at 4. Now you may be noticing what I’m noticing, that there’s significant splitting of the African-American vote here, and if you added Davis, Braun, and Meeks up into one super-candidate, they’d be in a dead heat with Emanuel. Well, don’t forget that this election uses a runoff, so chances are good we’ll see a head-to-head between Emanuel and one of the African-American challengers, and the poll finds Emanuel winning both those contests convincingly too: 54-33 versus Davis and 55-32 against Braun.

CA-AG: Things Looking EVEN Better for Kamala Harris

Update: You can check out our spreadsheets, too. We’re about 138,000 votes ahead of the SoS.

I was pessimistic last time about Kamala Harris’ chances, but daman09’s excellent analysis inspired me to do another county-by-county canvass of results with new projections. And as the title would give it away, things are looking MUCH better for Kamala.

Going county-by-county for the most recent updates, Harris now leads by 4,565 votes, 4,141,477 to Cooley’s 4,137,212.

While the SoS estimates 898,458 votes left to process, I estimate about 636,669, using the most recent estimates from individual counties when available and adjustments to the UBR counts where appropriate.

In the counties left standing, I’m conservatively estimating Harris’ weighted performance to be 46.08% to Cooley’s 45.14%, which should be good for another 5,993 votes.

Perhaps most significantly, Harris is performing better in the Abs/Prov/VBMs that have been added. Based on her performance as of our November 8th county-by-county canvass and and the origin of the 1,042,711 tabulated since then, we would have expected Kamala to outperform Cooley by 0.84%, for a margin of 8,707. But instead, she’s actually outperformed Cooley by 2.28%, improving her margin by 23,754.

Her swings in counties are as follows:

County Swing County Swing
San Benito 1.98% Tulare -1.38%
Nevada 1.42% Sutter -1.34%
Orange 1.30% El Dorado -0.89%
Monterey 0.93% Tehama -0.64%
Alameda 0.75% Amador -0.58%
Contra Costa 0.71% Santa Cruz -0.43%
Sacramento 0.70% Yuba -0.35%
Inyo 0.64% Los Angeles -0.33%
San Mateo 0.55% Solano -0.29%
Merced 0.45% Siskiyou -0.16%
San Luis Obispo 0.39% Yolo -0.15%
San Francisco 0.38% San Joaquin -0.15%
Kings 0.28% Fresno -0.08%
Santa Barbara 0.28% San Diego -0.04%
San Bernardino 0.24% Kern -0.03%
Marin 0.18% Sierra -0.00%
Imperial 0.14%
Ventura 0.12%
Riverside 0.10%
Shasta 0.10%
Santa Clara 0.03%

My estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:

  • Butte: +222, per the county update.

  • Contra Costa: -9,411 to adjust for votes added since November 12.

  • Imperial: -5,557 to adjust for votes added since November 6.

  • Los Angeles: -55,762 to adjust for votes added November 12.

  • Marin: -19,108 to adjust for votes added since November 8.

  • Monterey: -27,126 to adjust for votes added since November 8.

  • Orange: -43,227, per the county update.

  • Placer: +27,956 to restore the estimates to those on November 6. Placer County has not updated its results since November 3.

  • Riverside: -900, per the county update.

  • San Bernardino: -7,000 per the county update.

  • San Diego: -11,470 per the county update.

  • San Francisco: -10,037 to adjust for votes added since November 8.

  • San Joaquin: -32,279 to adjust for votes added since November 8.

  • San Mateo: -26,812; San Mateo has actually added 34,601 votes since November 8; I’ve now assumed 0.

  • Santa Clara: -9,686 to adjust for votes added since November 10.

  • Santa Cruz: -20,592 to adjust for votes added since November 8.

  • Yolo: -9,791 per the County; the County now lists no unprocessed ballots.

  • Yuba: -1,209 per the County’s labeling of its latest update as “Final.”

Movers and shakers below:

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Los Angeles 2,077,252 1,104,134 822,859 152,751 81,193 60,509 20,684
Alameda 413,545 275,663 106,564 24,500 16,331 6,313 10,018
Sonoma 138,383 79,052 45,321 35,500 20,280 11,626 8,653
San Francisco 245,397 174,177 50,398 11,339 8,048 2,329 5,719
Contra Costa 310,433 165,752 122,421 29,002 15,485 11,437 4,048
Mendocino 19,097 10,321 6,159 12,358 6,679 3,986 2,693
Santa Cruz 87,349 54,033 24,218 7,313 4,524 2,028 2,496
Marin 102,499 63,668 31,727 7,942 4,933 2,458 2,475
Humboldt 35,966 18,011 13,436 13,387 6,704 5,001 1,703
Napa 28,480 14,229 11,711 17,877 8,932 7,351 1,581
Santa Clara 467,447 256,069 170,877 8,414 4,609 3,076 1,533
Solano 109,963 55,825 45,385 5,498 2,791 2,269 522
Monterey 87,434 47,784 32,266 2,344 1,281 865 416
Imperial 23,812 11,583 9,985 3,629 1,765 1,522 244
Lake 14,980 6,585 6,430 5,372 2,361 2,306 56
San Benito 15,164 7,007 6,759 433 200 193 7

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Placer 107,703 31,998 66,112 28,056 8,335 17,222 -8,886
San Diego 806,573 309,842 421,749 60,500 23,241 31,635 -8,394
Riverside 447,756 163,335 248,095 28,800 10,506 15,958 -5,452
San Bernardino 393,156 145,444 207,987 29,000 10,728 15,342 -4,613
Fresno 166,017 59,237 95,001 17,500 6,244 10,014 -3,770
Kern 159,058 42,875 100,947 10,202 2,750 6,475 -3,725
Orange 838,124 260,554 504,483 11,089 3,447 6,675 -3,227
Butte 56,937 20,635 29,626 18,229 6,607 9,485 -2,879
Tulare 76,763 22,316 48,368 6,700 1,948 4,222 -2,274
Ventura 241,363 93,845 129,520 12,556 4,882 6,738 -1,856
Madera 27,635 8,130 16,872 5,806 1,708 3,545 -1,837
Calaveras 14,501 4,168 8,236 4,918 1,414 2,793 -1,380
El Dorado 72,133 21,081 43,705 3,900 1,140 2,363 -1,223
Shasta 59,536 15,995 37,152 3,400 913 2,122 -1,208
Stanislaus 110,462 41,587 59,205 6,980 2,628 3,741 -1,113
Tehama 17,117 4,594 10,321 2,999 805 1,808 -1,003
Sutter 22,671 6,642 13,871 2,384 698 1,459 -760
Nevada 37,088 14,129 19,126 4,730 1,802 2,439 -637
San Joaquin 146,197 59,904 70,919 7,436 3,047 3,607 -560
Sacramento 378,523 169,118 178,844 21,621 9,660 10,215 -556
Amador 15,640 4,334 9,238 1,741 482 1,028 -546
Santa Barbara 119,282 51,662 57,104 6,536 2,831 3,129 -298
San Luis Obispo 99,236 37,257 51,944 1,728 649 905 -256
Del Norte 6,876 2,520 3,562 1,008 369 522 -153
Tuolumne 21,104 6,629 11,962 524 165 297 -132
Mariposa 7,010 2,096 4,051 267 80 154 -74
Merced 46,263 18,698 23,540 400 162 204 -42

CA-AG: I Project Kamala Harris Wins

I put this in the comments of the open thread earlier today, but I’m confident in my numbers to make a proclamation.

As it stands right now, Kamala Harris is up by .2%, or 14,000 votes according to the CA SOS website, which was updated at 8 am this morning.

There are still around 900,000 ballots left uncounted.

Here are the top counties, their outstanding votes, and by how large a margin each county voted for a candidate.

Los Angeles: 208,513 (Harris +13.5%)

San Diego: 71,970 (Cooley +13.8%)

Orange: 54,316 (Cooley +29.2%)

San Joaquin: 39,715 (Cooley +7.6%)

Contra Costa: 38,413 (Harris +13.3%)

San Bernardino: 36,000 (Cooley +5%)

Sonoma: 35,500 (Harris +24.2%)

Riverside: 29,700 (Cooley +19%)

Monterey: 29,470 (Harris +15.2%)

Santa Cruz: 27,905 (Harris +34.1%!)

Marin: 27,050 (Harris +31.2%)

San Mateo: 26,812 (Harris +21.6%)

Alameda: 24,500 (Harris +40.7%!!)

Sacramento: 21,621 (Cooley +2.6%)

San Francisco: 21,376 (Harris +50.4%!!!!!!)

Using some mind numbing number crunching, I project that Kamala Harris takes it home with a net 64,584 from all of the above counties combined.

All of those counties account for around 694,000 of the 898,458 unprocessed votes, or 77% of the uncounted votes.

This means that for cooley to overtake that 64,584 deficit from the remaining uncounted counties, he would have to, on average, win them by around a 32% margin.

While not impossible, I find it highly unlikely for this to occur.  The biggest margin Cooley received from any county that I can see is from Kern, when he got a 36.5% margin.  He is going to have to do better than that with outstanding counties like santa Clara that went for Harris by 18.2%, and has 8,000 more outstanding ballots than Kern.

Unless the last of these ballots go overwhelmingly for Cooley, I think Cooley is a goner, and California will have its first Bi-Racial AG.

Congrats Kamala.  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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CA-AG: Improvement for Kamala

Update: Err. DCal points out a good point that Santa Clara’s reported an extra 86k votes since their last update. That means, well, Kamala doesn’t stand to gain as much. Revised, we’re saying Kamala will gain about 55,000 votes…leaving her about 7,300 short.

Hate to pull the roller coaster on y’all, but I’d rather be realistic than unrealistically optimistic.

After combing through the individual county websites and aggregating the information with the latest Unprocessed Ballots Report (UBR), Kamala Harris is actually down 62,258 votes thanks to a large number of votes of San Diego and Orange Counties reporting beyond the latest UBR.

We’ve adjusted the UBR for the new results from each County on top of the latest SoS report – for example, the UBR lists 84,005 votes left to process in the OC, but 29,651 more votes were added in today’s OC update; therefore, we’re using 54,354 ballots left outstanding in Orange. Given all this, we actually project Kamala Harris to pick up 70,612 votes in the ballots left outstanding (again, assuming the same breakdown in the Abs/Prov/VBM ballots as the ballots already counted) – meaning she’d win by 8,354.

But even then, Harris has been outdoing that in the few examples where counties have more fully reporting. I don’t buy into the “bellwether” theory, but consider San Benito. On Saturday, Harris was trailing by 41 votes in San Benito; today, she’s winning San Benito by 226 votes. Just one example, but – if you buy the bellwether theory – a powerful one!

We’ll keep updating as more results roll in – we think a county-by-county update encompasses results more fully than just using the SoS update, and lets us better manage the timeframe issue.

Better yet, not all of Harris’ improvement is attributable to the methodology switch – by yesterday’s method, Harris would lose by only 48 votes!

Movers and shakers below:

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Los Angeles 1,883,468 1,004,737 743,482 322,428 171,999 127,276 44,724
Alameda 329,011 218,539 86,461 108,257 71,908 28,449 43,459
Santa Clara 459,996 251,940 168,327 108,000 59,152 39,521 19,631
Santa Clara 459,996 251,940 168,327 21,526 11,790 7,877 3,913
Contra Costa 236,809 125,361 93,978 85,000 44,997 33,732 11,265
Sonoma 138,383 79,052 45,321 40,000 22,850 13,100 9,750
Santa Cruz 67,290 41,786 18,478 27,905 17,329 7,663 9,666
Marin 83,391 51,689 25,850 27,050 16,767 8,385 8,382
San Mateo 168,055 95,316 59,945 26,812 15,207 9,564 5,643
Monterey 70,549 38,040 26,600 29,470 15,890 11,111 4,779
Mendocino 19,097 10,321 6,159 12,358 6,679 3,986 2,693
Solano 106,516 54,321 43,701 25,522 13,016 10,471 2,545
Humboldt 35,966 18,011 13,436 13,104 6,562 4,895 1,667
Yolo 47,516 25,421 18,162 10,536 5,637 4,027 1,610
Napa 28,480 14,229 11,711 17,877 8,932 7,351 1,581
Imperial 19,488 9,432 8,213 7,953 3,849 3,352 497
Lake 14,980 6,585 6,430 5,372 2,361 2,306 56

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Fresno 127,070 45,013 72,289 79,748 28,250 45,368 -17,118
Orange 798,056 245,400 484,693 54,354 16,714 33,011 -16,298
San Diego 766,960 294,759 402,289 80,000 30,746 41,962 -11,216
Kern 159,058 42,875 100,947 22,953 6,187 14,567 -8,380
San Bernardino 382,526 141,174 202,961 36,000 13,286 19,101 -5,815
Shasta 47,590 12,778 29,737 16,200 4,350 10,123 -5,773
Riverside 444,463 161,930 246,523 28,800 10,493 15,974 -5,481
Sacramento 304,620 135,123 145,080 101,722 45,122 48,447 -3,325
San Joaquin 113,918 46,769 55,184 39,715 16,305 19,239 -2,934
Butte 56,937 20,635 29,626 18,007 6,526 9,370 -2,844
Tulare 70,879 20,762 44,573 7,475 2,190 4,701 -2,511
Ventura 234,659 91,180 126,123 16,648 6,469 8,948 -2,479
Tehama 13,013 3,527 7,798 7,354 1,993 4,407 -2,414
Madera 27,635 8,130 16,872 5,806 1,708 3,545 -1,837
Placer 107,703 31,998 66,112 4,800 1,426 2,946 -1,520
Calaveras 14,501 4,168 8,236 4,918 1,414 2,793 -1,380
San Luis Obispo 93,036 34,907 49,042 8,291 3,111 4,370 -1,260
Stanislaus 110,462 41,587 59,205 6,980 2,628 3,741 -1,113
Sutter 22,671 6,642 13,871 2,384 698 1,459 -760
Santa Barbara 110,837 47,845 53,209 14,537 6,275 6,979 -704
Nevada 37,088 14,129 19,126 4,730 1,802 2,439 -637
Amador 14,112 3,963 8,306 1,741 489 1,025 -536
Yuba 14,555 4,312 8,484 1,209 358 705 -347
Siskiyou 16,827 5,455 9,196 993 322 543 -221
Del Norte 6,876 2,520 3,562 1,008 369 522 -153
Tuolumne 21,104 6,629 11,962 524 165 297 -132
Mariposa 7,010 2,096 4,051 267 80 154 -74
Merced 38,323 15,435 19,618 400 161 205 -44
Inyo 6,649 2,084 3,758 115 36 65 -29

CA-AG: Looking Bad for Kamala Harris

Update: A few more counties have added results, Harris’s deficit has grown to 36,800 votes. This was a result of 85,000 new votes in Orange, 17k in Riverside, and 35.5k in San Francisco. I’ve subtracted these from the “unprocessed” totals, and the new projection says Harris stands to gain 1,500 in the remaining ballots uncounted.

However, there is a time gap between the ballots outstanding estimate and the number of votes counting – more likely than not, we’re overestimating the number of Orange, San Diego, and Riverside ballots outstanding – which of course means that Harris has more upside potential in the remaining ballots.  We’ll keep a close eye on the situation and will update accordingly as more data are released tomorrow.

As of last update, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris (D) is trailing Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley by 22,817 votes out of 7,659,341 counted so far.

According to the Unprocessed Ballot Report (PDF), there are still 2,342,664 ballots uncounted. Sidenote: Don’t you love Debra Bowen and what she’s done with the SoS’s office? Susan Bysiewicz, take notes!

What does this mean?

Well, we can analyze the relative composition of the remaining outstanding ballots, and the news isn’t the best for Harris.

Harris’ statewide weighted average performance for the unprocessed ballots (weighted by the number of votes outstanding) is 45.55% to Cooley’s 45.95%. This is actually a notch down from the 45.64% Harris has received in all counties so far.

This is mostly due to a large number of outstanding ballots in San Diego and Orange Counties. While LA, SF, Alameda, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa will help to offset this, they will be offset by Riverside, San Bern, and also possibly death-by-thousand-cuts in the various counties in the Central Valley.

From this – provided we assume that unprocessed ballots break down the same as the counties they are from thus far – we can estimate that Harris is on pace to fall another 9,486 votes behind Cooley.

For Harris to overcome her 23k deficit, we can also say that Harris will need to do 0.69% better among the uncounted ballots than she has thus far.

Here are the top 12 counties that will pad Cooley’s margin:

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Orange 683,073 208,780 416,466 233,196 71,276 142,178 -70,902
San Diego 639,695 246,542 335,071 240,000 92,497 125,712 -33,214
Kern 116,811 31,861 73,293 65,200 17,784 40,910 -23,126
Fresno 127,070 45,013 72,289 79,748 28,250 45,368 -17,118
San Bernardino 341,011 127,276 179,477 99,000 36,950 52,105 -15,155
Riverside 427,254 155,953 236,923 78,100 28,507 43,308 -14,801
Placer 107,703 31,998 66,112 28,056 8,335 17,222 -8,886
Stanislaus 110,462 41,587 59,205 40,430 15,221 21,670 -6,448
Ventura 209,561 81,543 112,402 40,279 15,673 21,604 -5,931
Shasta 47,590 12,778 29,737 16,200 4,350 10,123 -5,773
Tulare 61,150 18,200 38,109 17,204 5,120 10,722 -5,601
El Dorado 51,608 15,335 31,061 17,400 5,170 10,472 -5,302

And where we estimate Harris to get an advantage:

County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Los Angeles 1,883,468 1,004,737 743,482 411,960 219,760 162,617 57,143
Alameda 315,268 207,519 83,738 122,000 80,304 32,404 47,900
San Francisco 176,573 125,063 35,847 67,754 47,989 13,755 34,234
Santa Clara 371,287 203,177 136,071 108,000 59,100 39,580 19,520
Contra Costa 236,809 125,361 93,978 107,000 56,643 42,463 14,180
Marin 83,391 51,689 25,850 38,050 23,585 11,795 11,790
San Mateo 168,055 95,316 59,945 48,102 27,282 17,158 10,124
Sonoma 138,383 79,052 45,321 40,000 22,850 13,100 9,750
Santa Cruz 66,757 41,428 18,356 28,080 17,426 7,721 9,705
Monterey 60,308 32,664 22,522 40,256 21,803 15,034 6,770
Mendocino 19,097 10,321 6,159 12,358 6,679 3,986 2,693
Solano 93,164 47,383 38,272 25,522 12,980 10,485 2,496

The 34 counties we haven’t listed are expected to lose Harris another 23,531 votes, margin-wise.

Again, this analysis is fraught with assumptions, but gives us a useful picture of where things stand. We’re not taking into account any macro influences – such as the possibility of provisional ballots skewing Democratic – here, and given the sheer number of outstanding ballots – 23% of the total cast – much remains uncertain.  

SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Morning Edition)

AL-Gov (Univ. of S. Alabama): Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 48%

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Suffolk): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: Kamala Harris leads Steve Cooley 35-34 in the AG race, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 55-40)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (SurveyUSA for KABC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%; Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%

(Bonus: Gavin Newsom leads Abel Maldonado 42-34 for LG, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 46-44)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PPP): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 45-48)

CA-20 (SurveyUSA for KFSN): Jim Costa (D-inc) 42%, Andy Vidak (R) 52%

(note: this poll population is 37% Hispanic, compared with 67% in reality) (also, the DCCC responded with a poll giving Costa a 47-41 lead, although they neglected to leak the pollster’s name) (UPDATE: The pollster is Bennet Petts & Normington, with the sample over the same 10/21-24 period as SurveyUSA)

CT-Sen, CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Richard Blumenthal (D) 54% (54), Linda McMahon (R) 42% (43); Dan Malloy (D) 48% (49), Tom Foley (R) 43% (42)

FL-08 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alan Grayson (D-inc) 41% (36), Daniel Webster (R) 48% (43), Peg Dunmire (T) 4%

GA-Gov (InsiderAdvantage): Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 47%, John Monds (L) 5%

ID-Gov, ID-Sen, ID-01, ID-02 (Mason-Dixon for Idaho newspapers): Keith Allred (D) 30%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%; Tom Sullivan (D) 20%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 64%; Walt Minnick (D-inc) 44%, Raul Labrador (R) 41%; Mike Crawford (D) 17%, Mike Simpson (R-inc) 67%

IA-Gov (Global Strategy Group for Chet Culver): Chet Culver (D-inc) 40%, Terry Branstad (R) 46%

IL-Gov (MarketShares for Chicago Tribune): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39% (39), Bill Brady (R) 43% (38), Scott Lee Cohen (I) 5%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%, Lex Green (L) 2%

IL-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%, Mark Kirk (R) 36%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%, Mike Labno (L) 4%

KY-Sen (PPP): Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

KY-03 (RiverCity for Todd Lally): John Yarmuth (D-inc) 41%, Todd Lally (R) 37% (note: n = only 239, yet they claim MoE of 4.5%)

LA-02 (Anzalone-Liszt): Cedric Richmond (D) 49%, Joe Cao (R-inc) 32%

MD-Sen (Baltimore Sun): Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 59%, Eric Wargotz (R) 32%

NC-Sen (SurveyUSA for WRAL): Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 53%, Mike Beitler (L) 5%

NC-Sen (Tel Opinion Research for Civitas): Elaine Marshall (D) 34%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%, Mike Beitler (L) 4%

NJ-03 (Monmouth): John Adler (D-inc) 43% (42), Jon Runyan (R) 48% (39)

NJ-03 (Eagleton/Rutgers): John Adler (D-inc) 44%, Jon Runyan (R) 44%, Peter DeStefano (I) 4%

NJ-06 (Monmouth): Frank Pallone (D-inc) 52% (53), Anna Little (R) 45% (41)

NM-Gov (POS for Susana Martinez): Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 50%

NM-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Diane Denish): Diane Denish (D) 45%, Susana Martinez (R) 46%

NY-20 (Siena): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42% (54), Chris Gibson (R) 51% (37)

(The Murphy camp leaked an internal from Global Strategy Group today, although only saying a 3-point lead without specific toplines)

OH-Gov, OH-Sen (Quinnipiac): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43% (41), John Kasich (R) 49% (51); Lee Fisher (D) 36% (34), Rob Portman (R) 53% (55)

OH-Sen (Wilson Research, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Lee Fisher (D) 38%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

OH-Sen (Univ. of Cincinnati for Ohio newspapers): Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman 58%

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Ipsos for Reuters): Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 46%; Dan Onorato (D) 43%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

(Sestak leads 46-42 among RVs, and even Onorato leads 46-43 among RVs)

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Muhlenberg): Joe Sestak (D) 40% (42), Pat Toomey (R) 48% (47); Dan Onorato (D) 39% (41), Tom Corbett (R) 50% (49)

PA-08 (POS for Mike Fitzpatrick): Patrick Murphy (D-inc) 40%, Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 50%

PA-10 (Lycoming): Chris Carney (D-inc) 45%, Tom Marino (R) 39%

SD-Gov (Neilson Brothers): Scott Heidepriem (D) 40%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 43%

VA-09 (SurveyUSA for WDBJ): Rick Boucher (D-inc) 46%, Morgan Griffith (R) 47%

WI-Gov (Mellman Group, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 47%