Tag: 2010 House

I went through the many losing Democratic candidates of 2010 and compared their losing margins to Obama’s 2008 margins.  It started out as an exercise to figure out who I would want to come back for a second run.  In any event, I have ranked them, separated by incumbents, open seats, and challengers to Republican incumbents.  As for challengers to Republican incumbents, I have only listed the top 10 challengers, as well as 9 heralded challengers who underperformed Obama by double digits.  Interesting to note that not a single Democratic challenger to any Republican incumbent outperformed Obama’s margin in his or her district.  

A positive number means the 2010 Democrat outperformed Obama by that much.  A negative number means Obama outperformed the 2010 Democrat by that much.

INCUMBENTS

1. MS-04 – Gene Taylor +31: Could easily win if he came back.

2. AL-02 – Bobby Bright +25: Republicans better be careful how they draw Montgomery districts.

3. MO-04 – Ike Skelton +18: Could win if he came back, but presumably he will not.

4. ID-01 – Walt Minnick +16: Little hope of regaining this seat, with or without Minnick.

5. VA-09 – Rick Boucher +15: Same as Skelton.

6. TN-04 – Lincoln Davis +12: This seat is probably gone for good, with or without Davis.

7. MS-01 – Travis Childers +10: Childers comeback win unlikely but maybe not impossible.

8. TX-17 – Chet Edwards +10: This seat is gone for good.  Edwards lost by 25.

9. GA-08 – Jim Marshall +8: Would love to see Marshall mount a comeback.

10. MD-01 – Frank Kratovil +6: Maryland trifecta needs to draw Kratovil right back in.

11. SD-AL – Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin +6: A shame she is becoming a lobbyist.

12. AZ-01 – Ann Kirkpatrick +4: Kirkpatrick is a strong candidate.  Would love to see a comeback.

13. CO-03 – John Salazar -1: Definitely would like to see him run again.

14. NY-13 – Mike McMahon -1: Same.

15. PA-10 – Chris Carney -1: Same.

16. VA-05 – Tom Periello -1: Same, or even better he could run for Senate.  

17. ND-AL – Earl Pomeroy -2: Doesn’t sound like he plans to run for anything unfortunately.

18. FL-02 – Allen Boyd -3: Primary forced him to vote for HCR, which hurt in the general.

19. OH-06 – Charlie Wilson -3: I dream of Ted Strickland running for this one.

20. SC-05 – John Spratt -3: Too much to hope the old timer would mount a comeback.

21. AZ-05 – Harry Mitchell -4: Would not mind a comeback bid.

22. NC-02 – Bob Etheridge -6: The Choker sealed his own fate.

23. OH-18 – Zach Space -7: Surprisingly large margin of victory for Gibbs.

24. NJ-03 – John Adler -8: Not overly enthused with Adler.

25. NY-19 – John Hall -8: I like Hall, but he’s not the most energetic fundraiser.

26. TX-23 – Ciro Rodriguez -8: Would like to see a new Dem candidate here.

27. TX-27 – Solomon Ortiz -8: Same here.

28. IN-09 – Baron Hill -9: Huge enthusiasm problem for Indiana Dems.

29. NY-24 – Mike Arcuri -9: Arcuri was looking good in the polls.

30. OH-16 – John Boccieri -9: Thought Boccieri would do better than he did.

31. CO-04 – Betsy Markey -10: Pretty solid run by Gardner to beat Markey comfortably.

32. MN-08 – James Oberstar -10: I suspect Cravaack is going to be tricky to take out.

33. NM-02 – Harry Teague -10: Ran into tough candidate in former rep Pearce.

34. MI-07 – Mark Schauer -11: Thought he would do much better than he did.

35. PA-03 – Kathy Dahlkemper -11: Bad result for Dahlkemper against lackluster candidate.

36. NY-20 – Scott Murphy -12: Murphy ended up performing quite poorly.

37. FL-22 – Ron Klein -13: Not that excited about a Klein comeback.

38. IL-08 – Melissa Bean -13: Really amazing and scary that Walsh won this thing.

39. NV-03 – Dina Titus -13: Reid turnout almost pushed Titus over the top.

40. NY-25 – Dan Maffei -13: At least as bad a loss as Bean’s.

41. VA-02 – Glenn Nye -13: Mediocre run from mediocre candidate.

42. PA-08 – Patrick Murphy -16: Murphy ran into a tough opponent in Fitzpatrick.

43. FL-24 – Suzanne Kosmas -17: Kosmas really got shellacked here.

44. IL-14 – Bill Foster -17: Number inflated by strong Obama showing.

45. NH-01 – Carol Shea-Porter -18: Shea Porter was never the best fit for this district.

46. OH-01 – Steve Driehaus -18: Chabot beat the polls.  Tough district in midterms.

47. WI-08 – Steve Kagen -19: Kagen the victim of horrible WI enthusiasm.

48. IL-11 – Debbie Halvorson -23: Halvorson ran into a tough candidate in Kinzinger.

49. OH-15 – Mary Jo Kilroy -23: Kilroy never seemed to have much traction here.

50. FL-08 – Alan Grayson -24: Grayson, Hare, and Kanjorski tied for last … perfect.

51. IL-17 – Phil Hare -24: Please don’t run again, Phil.

52. PA-11 – Paul Kanjorski -24: You are the weakest link, goodbye.

OPEN SEATS

1. WV-01 – Mike Oliviero +14: Heated primary probably made the difference.

2. AR-01 – Chad Causey +13: Same here, although Causey lost by a lot more.

3. AL-05 – Steve Raby +7: Solid run by Raby in very tough district.

4. AZ-03 – Jon Hulburd +4: Probably says more about Quayle than Hulburd.

5. SC-03 – Jane Dyer +3: Very strong run by Dyer in impossible district.  Good tea leaves in SC.

6. KS-04 – Raj Goyle -4: Very professional campaign by Goyle.

7. LA-03 – Ravi Sangisetty -4: Young attorney ran stronger than I expected.

8. TN-03 – John Wolfe -4: Beneficiary of third party taking 10% of the vote.

9. MO-07 – Scott Eckersley -5: Solid run in impossible district.

10. FL-12 – Lori Edwards  -6: Beneficiary of high profile Tea Party candidate.

11. TN-08 – Roy Herron -7: Impressive wins by Fincher in the primary and the general.  

12. AR-02 – Joyce Elliott -9: Dems can take this one back with a better district or candidate.

13. FL-25 – Joe Garcia -9: Garcia burdened by statewide Florida enthusiasm problem.

14. NY-29 – Matt Zeller -9: Decent run by young Zeller in a tough district.

15. OK-05 – Billy Coyle -10: Professional run here from Coyle.

16. KS-01 – Alan Jilka -12: Strong “recruit” in district that is beyond impossible.

17. WA-03 – Denny Heck -12: Meh.  I would have hoped for a better result here.

18. GA-07 – Doug Heckman -13: Credible run against impossible odds.

19. MI-01 – Gary McDowell -13: Disappointing candidate.  Fundraising was slow.

20. SC-04 – Paul Corden -13: Decent, uphill run against Teabagger Gowdey.

21. TN-06 – Brett Carter -13: Mediocre run in impossible district.

22. AR-03 – David Whitaker -14: Pretty well plastered in impossible district.

23. NH-02 – Ann Kuster -15: Overrated run by Kuster.  This is a district Dems should win.

24. IN-08 – Trent Van Haaften -16: Similar to McDowell.  Slow fundraising.

25. IN-03 – Tom Hayhurst -17: Hayhurst not really competitive here.

26. WI-07 – Julie Lassa -21: Bottom fell out of Wisconsin Dem enthusiasm.

27. FL-05 – Jim Piccillo -22: Easy win for Mike “don’t call me Ted” Nugent.

28. MI-03 – Pat Miles -22: Easy win for Justin Amash.

29. SC-01 – Ben Frasier -22: Not a particularly strong run here.  Other SC results were better.

30. CA-19 – Lorraine Goodwin -23: Easy win for Jeff Denham.

31. KS-03 – Stephene Moore -23: Definitely was not the year for a Dem legacy candidate.

32. PA-07 – Bryan Lentz -24: Probably says more about Meehan than Lentz.

33. IL-10 – Dan Seals -25: Dems really, really should have won this one.

34. IN-04 – David Sanders -29: Impressive margin for Rokita.

35. MI-02 – Fred Johnson -31: Bottom fell out in Michigan.

TOP 10 LOSING CHALLENGERS TO REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS

1. SC-02 – Rob Miller -1: Another good tea leaf out of SC.  Strong run by cash flush Miller.

2. CA-02 – Jim Reed -2: Did Herger hurt himself with the “proud, rightwing terrorist” incident?

3. MN-06 – Tarryl Clark -5: Decent run by Clark against lightning rod Bachmann.

4. OH-02 – Chili Yalamanchili -5: District has never fully embraced Mean Jean.

5. AL-03 – Steve Segrest -6: Rogers held under 60% again.  Hope Dems go after him in 2012.

6. CA-03 – Ami Bera -7: Good run by Bera fell considerably short.

7. NC-05 – Billy Kennedy -9: Credible run against the loathsome Foxx.

8. GA-03 – Frank Saunders -10: Unheralded Saunders probably knows the 10 commandments.

9. OK-03 – Frankie Robbins -10: Plowed by 50+, but really lopsided district.

10. MD-06 – Andrew Duck -10: Bartlett doesn’t ever seem all that popular here.

WE CAME, WE SAW, WE SUCKED – Heralded challengers who underperformed Obama by double digits.

1. FL-10 – Charlie Justice -36: Huge flop right in my backyard.

2. PA-06 – Manan Trivedi -31: By far the biggest margin of Gerlach’s career.

3. PA-15 – John Callahan -28: Dent cruised to double digit victory.

4. OH-12 – Paula Brooks -23: Brooks gave Tiberi very little trouble.

5. NE-02 – Tom White -23: White was tattooed in district Obama won.

6. WA-08 – Suzan DelBene -19: Overrated run like Kuster’s.  Dems should win here.

7. CA-45 – Steve Pougnet -14: Held Bono Mack to single digits in Obama district.

8. CA-44 – Bill Hedrick -12: Calvert has got to go in 2012.

9. MO-08 – Tommy Sowers -11: Well funded run against Emerson fell well short.

So this is my most ambitious and most speculative exercise to date.  Below are my predictions for the TWO WAY vote in every House race that I expect to be within 20% (plus three pickups in AR-02, LA-03, and TN-06 that I expect to be greater than 20%).  Unlike my previous efforts, this is almost entirely unscientific and subjective, except that I have tried to make a reasonable distribution of margins of victories (not too many close ones, not too many blowouts).  

Overall, I have a net of 25 seats to the Republicans, with 29 Republican pickups and 4 Democratic ones.  Pickups are in bold.  

AK-AL – Young (R) 59, Crawford (D) 40 – Crawford underfunded and AK too red.

AL-02 – Bright (D) 50.3, Roby (R) 49.7 – Bright scrapes by with conservative record.

AL-05 – Brooks (R) 59, Raby (D) 41 – Northern Alabama going red fast.

AR-01 – Causey 50 (D), Crawford (R) 49 – AR Dems able to focus here for lack of other competitive races.

AR-02 – Griffin (R) 60, Elliott (D) 40 – This one was decided by the Dem primary.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) 53, Gosar (R) 46 – Republican field somewhat unimpressive.

AZ-03 – Quayle (R) 59, Hulburd (D) 41 – R+9 open seat too much to ask this cycle.

AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) 51, Schweikert (R) 48 – Rematch of 2008, where Mitchell won by 9.

AZ-08 – Giffords (D) 52, Paton (R) 47 – Paton a strong candidate, but Giffords has lots of $$$.

CA-03 – Lungren (R) 55, Bera (D) 44 – R+6 seat too tough in this environment.

CA-11 – McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 – McNerney wins a squeaker.  Bluing part of Cali.

CA-18 – Cardoza (D) 56, Berryhill (R) 43 – Cardoza needs to raise more $$$.

CA-20 – Costa (D) 59, Vidak (R) 41 – No problem for Costa.

CA-44 – Calvert (R) 59, Hedrick (D) 41 – Calvert not taken by surprise this time.

CA-45 – Bono-Mack (R) 58, Pougnet (D) 41 – Bono-Mack prevails in favorable environment.

CA-47 – Sanchez (D) 58, Tran (R) 41 – Have never taken this one too seriously.

CO-03 – Salazar (D) 54, Tipton (R) 46 – Substantial $$$ advantage for Salazar.

CO-04 – Gardner (R) 53, Markey (D) 47 – Tough HCR vote in this district.

CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) 56, Frazier (R) 43 – D+4 district.  Perlmutter has fundraised well.

CT-04 – Himes (D) 56, Debicella (R) 44 – Himes a super fundraiser.

CT-05 – Murphy (D) 56, Caliguiri (R) 43 – Murphy notches relatively comfortable win.

DE-AL – Carney (D) 55, Urquhart (R) 45 – Glad Carney got in the race early.

FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 48 – HCR vote seals Boyd’s fate.

FL-08 – Grayson 50 (D), Webster (R) 49 – Grayson spends huge to win.

FL-10 – Young (R) 59, Justice (D) 40 – Poor Charlie Justice.  Fundraising embarrassing.

FL-12 – Ross (R) 57, Edwards (D) 43 – Once-promising race goes by the wayside due to environment.

FL-22 – Klein (D) 53, West (R) 47 – West has raised tons of $$$, but thankfully Klein has too.

FL-24 – Miller 50 (R), Kosmas (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote for the district.

FL-25 – Rivera (R) 55, Garcia (D) 44 – Rivera had monster first fundraising quarter.

GA-02 – Bishop (D) 56, Keown (R) 43 – Bishop is pretty entrenched in this heavily AA district.

GA-08 – Marshall (D) 54, Scott (R) 45 – Scott starting from scratch in fundraising.

HI-01 – Hanabusa (D) 54, Djou (R) 46 – Djou can beat two Democrats but not one.

IA-03 – Boswell (D) 54, Zaun (R) 45 – Zaun has a lot of catching up to do in fundraising.

ID-01 – Minnick 50.4 (D), Labrador (R) 49.6 – Tough year to rely on crossover votes.

IL-08 – Bean (D) 58, Walsh (R) 41 – This one could be worse.  Walsh is a joke.

IL-10 – Seals (D) 50.1, Dold (R) 49.9 – Seals squeaks by in 20%+ Obama district.

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 53, Halvorson (D) 47 – Kinzinger an outstanding candidate.

IL-14 – Hultgren 50 (R), Foster (D) 49 – Top of the ticket hurts Foster.

IL-17 – Hare (D) 58, Schilling (R) 42 – Schilling raising decent money in D+3 seat.

IN-02 – Donnelly (D) 55, Walorski (R) 45 – Jacky too wacky to win.

IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 52, Van Haaften (D) 47 – Van Haaften a good candidate, but tough district.

IN-09 – Young 50 (R), Hill (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote.

KS-03 – Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 45 – Big fundraising head start for Republicans.

KS-04 – Pompeo (R) 59, Goyle (D) 40 – Way too red for this cycle.

KY-03 – Yarmuth (D) 59, Lally (R) 40 – Lally only semi-serious competition.

KY-06 – Chandler (D) 54, Barr (R) 45 – Barr is a decent candidate, but Chandler should win comfortably.

LA-02 – Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 – Huge Dem lean too much for Cao.

LA-03 – Downer (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 – Easy pickup in Cajun country.

MA-05 – Tsongas (D) 59, Golnik (R) 40 – Golnik has raised some decent $$$.

MA-10 – Keating (D) 55, Perry (R) 45 – Don’t think this hyped race will be all that close.

MD-01 – Harris (R) 53, Kratovil (D) 46 – Really tough district for Kratovil to defend.

MI-01 – Allen (R) 52, McDowell (D) 47 – Tough district for Dems to hold.

MI-07 – Walberg (R) 52, Schauer (D) 48 – Schauer barely got by Walberg in 2008.

MI-09 – Peters (D) 55, Welday (R) 44 – Peters has huge financial edge.

MN-01 – Walz (D) 57, Demmer (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Walz.

MN-06 – Bachmann (R) 57, Clark (D) 43 – PPP poll did not bode well for Clark.

MO-03 – Carnahan (D) 56, Martin (R) 43 – Martin has raised some serious $$$.

MO-04 – Skelton (D) 54, Stouffer (R) 45 – Tough race but Skelton pulls through comfortably.

MS-01 – Nunnellee (R) 53, Childers (D) 46 – Wish Nunnellee had to deal with a runoff on Tuesday.

MS-04 – Taylor (D) 57, Palazzo (R) 43 – Taylor very well entrenched in incredibly red district.

NC-02 – Etheridge (D) 58, Ellmers (R) 42 – Don’t think the fisticuffs will have a tremendous impact here.

NC-07 – McIntyre (D) 58, Pantano (R) 41 – McIntyre has gone as far as any Dem to act Republican.

NC-08 – Kissell (D) 54, Johnson (R) 46 – PPP polling suggests Kissell will be OK here.

NC-11 – Shuler (D) 55, Miller (R) 44 – Shuler a very good fit for the district.

ND-AL – Berg 51 (R), Pomeroy (D) 49 – Hoeven coattails carry Berg.

NE-02 – Terry (R) 57, White (D) 43 – Too much to ask for in this cycle.

NH-01 – Guinta (R) 50.2, Shea-Porter (D) 49.8 – Tough year for Dems in NH.

NH-02 – Bass (R) 52, Kuster (D) 48 – Bass has strong polling leads.

NJ-03 – Adler (D) 54, Runyan (R) 45 – Runyan better at pass blocking than politics.

NJ-12 – Holt (D) 56, Sipprelle (R) 43 – Sipprelle has just about matched Holt fundraising.

NM-01 – Heinrich (D) 56, Barela (R) 44 – Heinrich should hold on in Dem district.

NM-02 – Pearce (R) 51, Teague (D) 48 – Tough district, tough opponent.

NV-03 – Heck (R) 52, Titus (D) 48 – Polls show Titus down.

NY-01 – Bishop (D) 54, Altschuler (R) 46 – Altschuler spending scary money.

NY-13 – McMahon (D) 55, Allegretti (R) 44 – Republicans in this district are a mess.

NY-19 – Hall (D) 53, Hayworth (R) 46 – Hall needs to get on the fundraising.

NY-20 – Murphy (D) 57, Gibson (R) 42 – Murphy lucky to have lackluster opponent.

NY-23 – Owens (D) 53, Hoffman (R) 46 – Owens widens lead in re-match.

NY-24 – Hanna (R) 52, Arcuri (D) 47 – Arcuri a poor candidate and Hanna a good one.

NY-25 – Maffei (D) 58, Buerkle (R) 42 – Maffei should be OK against subpar opposition.

NY-29 – Reed (R) 58, Zeller (D) 42 – Easy pickup for the GOP.

OH-01 – Chabot (R) 56, Driehaus (D) 44 – Afraid the awful polls are right on this one.

OH-06 – Wilson (D) 58, Johnson (R) 42 – Wilson has not had any problem in this Appalachia district.

OH-12 – Tiberi (R) 59, Brooks (D) 41 – Big financial edge for Tiberi.

OH-13 – Sutton (D) 55, Ganley (R) 45 – $$$ isn’t everything.  Sutton wins Dem district.

OH-15 – Stivers (R) 56, Kilroy (D) 44 – Kilroy only swept in because of strong 2008 environment.

OH-16 – Renacci (R) 53, Boccieri (D) 46 – Tough HCR vote for Boccieri in this district.

OH-18 – Space 51 (D), Gibbs (R) 49 – Huge Space fundraising edge.

OR-01 – Wu (D) 57, Cornilles (R) 43 – Should be enough Dem votes here for Wu to get by pretty easily.

OR-04 – DeFazio (D) 58, Robinson (R) 42 – Only a D+1 district, but no problem for DeFazio.

OR-05 – Schrader (D)  56, Bruun (R) 44 – Swing district, but Schrader should win.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) 54, Kelly (R) 46 – Republicans failed to land big-time opponent here.

PA-04 – Altmire (D) 55, Rothfus (R) 45 – Altmire in a decent position for re-election.

PA-06 – Gerlach (R) 57, Trivedi (D) 43 – This isn’t the year to finally take out Gerlach.

PA-07 – Meehan 51 (R), Lentz (D) 49 – Meehan financial advantage gets him through.

PA-08 – Murphy (D) 52, Fitzpatrick (R) 48 – Worried about this one.  Fitzpatrick raising $$$ fast.

PA-10 – Carney 51 (D), Marino (R) 49 – Carney a good politician with a strong financial edge.

PA-11 – Barletta (R) 50.4, Kanjorski (D) 49.6 – Kanjorski barely got by in 2008.

PA-12 – Critz (D) 53, Burns (R) 47 – Critz takes the re-match.

PA-15 – Dent (R) 55, Callahan (D) 44 – Tough to take out Republican incumbents this cycle.

PA-16 – Pitts (R) 59, Herr (D) 41 – PPP showed a 9-point race here.

PA-17 – Holden (D) 57, Argall (R) 42 – Holden survived 1994.  He’ll survive this.

SC-02 – Wilson (R) 59, Miller (D) 40 – “You lie!” outburst goes unpunished.

SC-05 – Spratt (D) 51, Mulvaney (R) 48 – Spratt barely holds on.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) 52, Noem (R) 48 – Don’t see the fireable offense for Herseth-Sandlin.

TN-04 – Davis (D) 53, Bailey (R) 47 – Republican internal had Davis up 11 in March.

TN-06 – Tracy (R) 63, Leming (D) 36 – Dems giving this one away.

TN-08 – Herron (D) 50.1, Fincher (R) 49.9 – Strong candidate squeaks by in tough district.

TX-17 – Flores (R) 53, Edwards (D) 47 – R lean of the district finally catches up to Edwards.

TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) 54, Canseco (R) 46 – Moderately competitive race for Ciro.

TX-27 – Ortiz (D) 58, Farenthold (R) 41 – Not much trouble for Ortiz.

UT-02 – Matheson (D) 57, Philpot (R) 42 – Matheson has enormous financial advantage.

VA-02 – Rigell (R) 51, Nye (D) 48 – One of those districts that sweeps in and out with environment.

VA-05 – Hurt 51 (R), Periello (D) 49 – Periello needs Teabagger to draw from Hurt.

VA-09 – Boucher (D) 54, Griffith (R) 45 – Big financial advantage for Boucher.

VA-11 – Connolly (D) 52, Fimian (R) 47 – Fimian ran reasonably strong in 2008, losing by 11.

WA-02 – Larsen (D) 57, Koster (R) 42 – Koster reasonably well-funded.

WA-03 – Heck 51 (D), Herrera (R) 49 – Heck has early financial edge.

WA-08 – Reichert (R) 56, DelBene (D) 44 – Too tough a year to beat Reichert.

WI-03 – Kind (D) 57, Kanapke (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Kind.

WI-07 – Lassa (D) 51, Duffy (R) 48 – Maybe it’s just hard for me to take reality TV stars seriously.

WI-08 – Kagen (D) 52, Ribble (R) 47 – Kagen goes into his pockets to win another tough race.

WV-01 – Oliviero (D) 50, McKinley (R) 49 – Incredibly conservative Oliviero squeaks by.