Magellan Strategies: (7/18, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8 in parentheses):
Karen Handel: 38 (32)
Nathan Deal: 20 (18)
Eric Johnson: 17 (12)
John Oxendine: 12 (18)
Ray McBerry: 3 (3)
Jeff Chapman: 3 (3)
Otis Putnam: 0 (0)
Undecided: 7 (14)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspapers (7/15-16, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8-13 in parentheses):
Karen Handel: 29 (23)
John Oxendine: 22 (31)
Nathan Deal: 20 (18)
Eric Johnson: 13 (6)
Ray McBerry: 2 (2)
Jeff Chapman: 1 (1)
Undecided: 13 (19)
(MoE: ±5%)
InsiderAdvantage (7/14, likely Republican primary voters, 7/1 in parentheses):
Karen Handel: 24 (18)
Nathan Deal: 16 (12)
John Oxendine: 15 (18)
Eric Johnson: 13 (8)
Jeff Chapman: 6 (6)
Ray McBerry: 3 (3)
Otis Putnam: 1 (1)
Undecided: 22 (34)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Three different polls are out today of the Republican gubernatorial primary (to be held tomorrow). If one thing’s certain, it’s that Karen Handel, the former SoS, is likely to be one of the participants in the runoff. There’s now a pitched battle for 2nd place, between Nathan Deal, John Oxendine (falling out of a solid first just weeks ago), and even state Sen. Eric Johnson (who went on a last-minute TV ad binge).
Handel’s recent success has lots to do with Sarah Palin and Jan Brewer endorsements, but also with a good ad strategy: branding herself the “reformer” and hitting her opponents’ corruption. With Deal having bailed out early from the House to avoid getting nailed on ethics problems, and now with allegations just emerging over the last few weeks regarding linkages between Oxendine‘s regulatory activities as insurance commissioner, and big payouts from those insurers he’s supposed to regulate, the ads wrote themselves.
Pollster.com’s regression lines paint a pretty clear picture of the last few weeks: