Tag: Research and Polling

Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal (8/23-27):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 47

Jon Barela (R): 41

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±5%)

The good news is: Heinrich is in the lead, unlike his performance in that nasty SUSA poll from a month ago. The bad news is that this is a real race, and one that Democrats cannot afford to take for granted. After pasting the extremely hyped Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White by 11 points in 2008, few thought that Heinrich would be in trouble this cycle against a lesser-known foe. But you can’t ignore the numbers — this is what some would call “striking distance”.

Barela beats Heinrich among independents by 51-45 and takes 33% of the Hispanic vote. Unlike SurveyUSA, though, the unimaginatively-named Research & Polling finds Heinrich up on Barela by 20 points among 18-to-34 year-olds. If you recall, SUSA had Barela running ahead by three points among that demographic.

Meanwhile, we also have some pretty amazing NM-02 numbers:

Harry Teague (D-inc): 45

Steve Pearce (R): 42

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±5%)

I say “amazing” because the general vibes I’ve been getting from from this race haven’t been particularly strong for Teague. Teague trailed Pearce by two points in a PPP poll back in February, but the national (and local) mood has not improved since then. Teague did release an internal poll claiming a one-point lead on Pearce back in April (up from a 10-point Pearce lead a year ago), but we haven’t seen any additional polls until now.

Perhaps one factor moving the numbers for Teague is the $325K ad buy against Pearce by the Defenders of Wildlife. (The New Mexico Independent has their latest ad, if you’d like to watch it.) The fact that Teague is apparently hanging in there while so many frosh Dems are struggling to tread water is pretty remarkable.

Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal (8/23-27, no trend lines):

Diane Denish (D): 39

Susana Martinez (R): 45

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3%)

Woof. Martinez wins a fifth of Democrats (including a quarter of Hispanic Democrats), 38% of independents (vs. 32% for Denish), and edges Denish among women by 42-41.

While Lt. Gov. Diane Denish looked like a solid player for the Democratic bench in New Mexico, Martinez’s cross-over appeal, Democratic disengagement, and the lingering baggage of Bill Richardson’s unpopularity are making this race a much tougher prospect for Democrats than was conceived a year ago.

Note: It’s unclear from the Journal’s article if this poll was of likely or registered voters. For Denish’s sake, let’s hope they were using an LV model…