Tag: Charlie Crist

A key player in Florida changes his tune:

His approval ratings may be sky high, but if Charlie Crist runs for the U.S. Senate, he still could face a serious primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

In an about-face, the conservative Miami Republican said Tuesday that Crist’s candidacy would not deter him from running if he decides to jump into the race. Rubio said that in 25 days he raised $250,000 for an exploratory campaign for the Senate and will make a decision within weeks.

“My decision, which I’ll announce shortly, will not be predicated on what anybody else does,” Rubio said in a phone interview from Washington, where he gave a speech and had meetings this week. He brushed off suggestions that he may run for attorney general, saying he’s passionate about federal issues.

Oh please, oh please, oh please….

• MN-Sen: After the court-ordered opening of the 351 previously rejected absentee ballots, Al Franken’s lead just grew to 312 votes (up from 225 votes after the hand recount). Although the Minnesota Supreme Court still has to rule on some miscellaneous issues (the possibility of some double-counts), these questions affect fewer than 300 ballots, meaning that it is now mathematically impossible for Norm Coleman to prevail.

• RI-Gov: After backing off and saying he wouldn’t decide anything until May, it seems like Lincoln Chafee has turned around again and has officially formed his exploratory committee. He will be “putting together a plan that will lay the groundwork for an Independent campaign for governor in 2010.”

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter has come out firing against Pat Toomey’s likely primary challenge… and he’s already shooting blanks. He had to pull down and revise his attack ad for a factual error. He had accused Toomey of having traded credit default swaps while a Wall Street trader in the 80s (turns out CDSs hadn’t been invented yet at that point). Trying a new tack on today’s Morning Joe, Specter said that Toomey is too conservative to win statewide, accusing him of being “to the right of Rick Santorum.”

• AR-Sen: Looks like Wal-Mart may have sent Blanche Lincoln a cheap Chinese-made horse head for her bed. Lincoln, who supported the Employee Free Choice Act last time it came up, has announced she won’t be supporting it this time around, at least “in its current form.” Even if Franken gets seated and Specter flip-flops again, this probably defers EFCA until after 2010 (unless it passes in a gutted form).

• NV-Sen: John Ensign is making his first speaking appearance in Iowa later this spring. Signs of a presidential run? Possible, considering the paltry lot the GOP has on tap so far. This is of SSP interest primarily because Ensign is up for re-election in 2012 and would leave behind an open seat in this newly blue seat in order to run.

• IL-Sen: Big first-quarter haul for Treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias, the only announced candidate for IL-Sen so far. He pulled in $1.1 million, none of which was from corporate PACs.

• FL-Sen: When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that “I haven’t yet reviewed his work”. Sharp answer! (J)

• FL-Gov: Hey, pallie – you better watch it! Charles Bronson says he’s going to run for governor of Florida if Charles Crist runs for the Senate. And you thought Charles Bronson was dead! Wrong again, pallie! (D)

• FL-02: State senator Al Lawson, who’s primarying Allen Boyd from the left, seems like he won’t be pulling punches in going after Boyd. Lawson (who’s said a few Blue Doggish things of his own in the past) says “From my perspective, a Blue Dog is just a closet Republican,” and is “committed to being a true Democrat.”

• LA-Legislature: There were three special elections in Louisiana legislative races over the weekend (a Democratic senate seat in Opelousas, a Democratic house seat in New Orleans, and a GOP house seat in Baton Rouge suburbs). Despite the GOP contesting all three seats, Democrats held the line in their two open seats (including one to replace Don Cravins, who’s moved to Washington). The candidates in both runoffs will be Democrats, meaning Dems will hold their 4-seat edge in the senate and 1-seat edge in the house.  

• IL-05: It’s special election day in the dark, dark blue 5th. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley faces off against GOP activist (and Minutewoman) Rosanna Pulido and a Green party candidate. In a big surprise, SSP will not be liveblogging the results.

Mason-Dixon for Sayfie Review/PowerPlay (3/30-4/1, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 35

Bill McCollum (R): 36

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems like not that long ago we were looking at a potential Florida senate race between CFO Alex Sink and AG Bill McCollum. With Gov. Charlie Crist sounding more and more like he’s moving to switch over to the Senate, causing the lower ranks on Florida’s political totem pole to gravitate over to the governor’s race, we may now be looking at a Sink/McCollum FL-Gov race instead, and that’s what Mason-Dixon just polled. (In fact, if those numbers look vaguely familiar to you, it’s because Quinnipiac did a head-to-head poll of a Sink/McCollum FL-Sen matchup in mid-January, and that poll also found McCollum 36, Sink 35!)

Mason-Dixon didn’t poll head-to-heads on a Crist-centered Senate race (either GOP primary or general). However, they did ask whether voters would “consider” voting for him, for which the answers were 17% definitely, 50% consider, and 26% definitely not. There is one note of caution for Crist here, though: he gets an 18% “definitely not” from Republicans (compared with a 35% “definitely not” from Democrats). That could point to a very competitive primary with a more orthodox conservative opponent. With former House speaker Marco Rubio intent on staying in the race and highlighting Crist’s stimulus-loving ways, it seems likely Rubio will be that opponent.

It looks like Charlie Crist won’t be facing a Mack Attack in 2010:

[Connie] Mack [IV], whose father served two terms in the Senate, wrote to Gov. Charlie Crist on Thursday saying he won’t be a Senate candidate. […]

Mack told Crist, “I will be your strongest supporter and champion – regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate.”

If Crist does indeed get into this race, I still expect an anti-Crist to emerge — but will it really be Marco Rubio, or will someone with more spine step up to take on Crist and his Obama-loving ways?

• NY-20: You’ll never believe who Barack Obama endorsed in the NY-20 special election, happening in just a week: Scott Murphy! He sent out an e-mail to more than 50,000 supporters in the district making the case for Murphy. Still no sign of an Obama appearance, though – and this late move comes as House Dems were supposedly “infuriated” at a lack of White House support for Murphy. Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard claims to have been leaked an RNC internal poll showing Jim Tedisco up over Murphy by only 3.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd just dodged a loud, annoying bullet: CNBC host Larry Kudlow has said that he won’t run against Dodd in 2010. Kudlow said, as many believed, that “it was never a serious proposition” in the first place. Dodd still faces less-known but more credible opposition in the form of ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and probably state senator Sam Caligiuri.

• FL-Sen/Gov: Charlie Crist tells reporters that he’s considering forming a Senate exploratory committee even before the state legislature ends its session on May 1. Crist has previously maintained that he would not announce his future plans until after the current session comes to a close. (J) Meanwhile, former state house speaker Marco Rubio is seeming committed to staying in the Senate race even if Crist gets in; he’s been publicly going after Crist on the stimulus and on gambling.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s newest poll is largely unchanged from its last, with Bloombo a shade under 50 and Dems in the mid-30s. But the Dem numbers have improved a little bit, and The Mayor is at his worst approval ratings of his second term (still, 64-28). Will Anthony Weiner’s apparent decision to back off the race allow Dems to rally around Comptroller Bill Thompson? (D)

• NRCC: The NRCC scored a big fundraising haul for its March dinner, with Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as the keynote speaker. They raised more than $6 million, with 95% of the House Republicans contributing.

• TN-03: The Chattanooga Times Free Press takes a preliminary look at the contenders lining up to replace Zach Wamp (running for TN-Gov) in the solidly Republican 3rd. Right now, Bradley County sheriff Tim Gobble is the only formal candidate. (I’m hoping he wins just because of his hilarious name. I’m especially looking forward to the Gobble-Fudge Act. I can also think of a much more obscene-sounding bill involving a certain minority leader.) Tennessee GOP chair Robin Smith, who may be the strongest candidate, is still in the exploring stage. Other possible GOPers include state senator Bo Watson and state rep. Gerald McCormick. The district’s strongest Dem, state senator Andy Berke, seems more interested in a gubernatorial run. One other possibility is that Wamp may jump back into his seat if he doesn’t get traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• MI-11: Could we finally have a legit challenger in our sights to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter? A group of local activists have banded together to draft state Sen. Glenn Anderson for the race (no relation to the six-time Stanley Cup winner). (J)

• FL-Sen: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has formed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat that Mel Martinez is vacating. However, if Crist runs, Rubio will bail to run for Governor, instead. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: This would be pretty serious. Long Island Democratic Congressman Steve Israel is said to be considering a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the NY Times. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Rep. Carolyn Maloney are also openly mulling the race. (J)

• KS-Gov: Looks like Kansas Dems are back to the drawing board not just in terms of the senate seat but also the governor’s mansion. Lt. Gov Mark Parkinson, who will be taking over for soon-to-be-ex-Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has reaffirmed his earlier statement that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s seat in 2010.

• PA-Sen: Glen Meakem, a Pittsburgh-area right-wing internet entrepreneur, was one of the fallback options for a conservative primary challenge to Arlen Specter. He’s backed out of the fray, apparently deferring to Pat Toomey’s renewed interest in the race. (You may remember Meakem as the guy who personally financed those internal “polls” showing John Murtha neck-and-neck with his defrauder challenger last year.)

• RNC: The RNC is transferring $1 million each to the NRSC and NRCC to help them dig out from under the 2008 debt and get back on the offensive. In other RNC news, one of the RNC’s three African-American members, Dr. Ada Fisher of North Carolina, is calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to step down in the face of his increasing, well, ridiculousness.

• Census: Incoming Commerce Sec. Gary Locke says the Census will stay a part of his portfolio at Commerce. It also looks that sampling, which is the real methodological sticking point that’s the source of the political squabble over census management, won’t be used aggressively; Locke said that sampling will be used “minimally, as an accuracy check.”

• NH-St. Sen.: It’s all but official: former Rep. Jeb Bradley is downshifting his career, to say the least. Tomorrow he’ll announce his candidacy for the New Hampshire state senate in SD-3. This will be an open seat vacated by a Republican, so it’s not even a potential GOP pickup. (Trivia time: I can think of at least two other ex-Representatives who are currently state senators. Can anybody name them?)

Let’s hope this doesn’t happen:

In what could be a Sunshine State one-two punch, multiple Republican sources are confirming that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is giving serious consideration to running for Senate – and that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) is contemplating resigning from his seat before his term is up next year.

Martinez has already announced he will not run for re-election when his first term expires in 2010. Crist, according to sources, has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas). […]

Sources say most Republicans are waiting on the sidelines because they want to see what Crist does before jumping into the Senate race, and explain further that Sink could be eyeing an open gubernatorial seat in 2010, when Crist’s first term is up.

Wow, okay. So are we to believe that Martinez will bail early and that Crist would appoint himself to the Senate? Martinez’s people are staying mum for now, only saying that the Senator “looks forward to serving out the rest of his term” (hardly a lock-solid promise to stay), and then we have this from Florida GOP Chair Jim Greer:

“A self-appointment — that’s not Charlie Crist. He has far too much appreciation for the electorate to appoint himself to the Senate,” said Greer.

Okay… but what about this scenario (again, from Roll Call):

Florida’s lieutenant governor is a Republican and would appoint Martinez’s successor if he and Crist both resign prematurely.

In other words, a self-appointment in all but name. Pretty skeezy, huh?

Of course, this is all speculative, and I hope that Kraushaar is onto something when his Florida GOP contacts tell him that the possibility of a Crist Senate bid is “remote”. In any event, Greer says that Crist won’t make a decision until the end of the state’s legislative session in May — at the earliest.

Cross posted at draftalex.com.

It’s pretty obvious that people are hoping that Alex Sink tosses her hat in the ring or higher office. The question we hope she’s facing right now is which one: Senate or Guvna?

There are perhaps a few too many calls for Alex Sink to be our Senate nominee.  This morning, Blast Off! even called for her to run for Senate and forget about the governor’s mansion.

At Draft Alex Sink for Governor the bias is pretty obvious. But, think for a second about why running for Senate wouldn’t be as good as a move.

First, just in terms of personality and experience, Alex is perfectly suited to be governor. She’s been an executive- and that’s what a governor theoretically does (just don’t look to Charlie for an example). Dan Gelber, Bob Wexler, Allen Boyd- these men are legislators- damn good ones, if I may. Their skills and interests fit the profile of a Senator more than Alex’s do.

There is a crowded bench already. Alex would have to compete with the likes of Dan Gelber and Chris Korge, maybe Allen Boyd, or even Bob Wexler. Those are some serious players, who could all represent the state well and some will run if she gets in or not. Alex could win the primary and the general, but why go for Senate to when the bench is already so deep, so good.

Winning the senate seat back is going to be tougher than we imagine. Sure, it looks a lot easier than beating Charlie does, but we’re two years out from the election- things change. Charlie should start to look more like a do-nothing, and Mel Martinez might decide to gracefully bow out, leaving the Republicans to nominate someone who could give us more of a challenge. In short, get excited about another Democratic senator, but don’t bet money on it just yet.

While there’s a crowded bench for Senate, there is literally no bench for governor- outside Alex Sink. If Democrats want to stop losing the state, then we can’t cede races like the 2010 gubernatorial. We need to not only nominate a candidate, but we need to nominate a good one. Right now, no other Democrat is really dipping the proverbial toe in the water- no one, not even Rod Smith.

And, there’s my peace.

Under a rule Crist has made, all but the most violent felons, nearly one million in total will once again have the right to vote in florida.  This will have several ramifications on the state, some profound, some superficial. 
  Let’s start with the profound.  First and most importantly of all, this will bring the country one step closer to a world free of jim crow.  While most of the Jim Crow laws are no longer in effect, this rule, which had been written into the state’s constitution for decades, was one of them.  While all felons are obviously not African americans, nationwide there is a clear slant, in many cases due to unfairness in the criminal justice system. 
Another important aspect is that it will be a lot harder for republican operatives to disenfranchise voters, that coupled with a voting machines that have a voting trail (also Crist’s idea) could swing many key florida races to us, but more importantly will restore voting rights and democracy to florida. 
  There’s also the factor of how this will affect dems.  Felons do typically vote towards dems more and while African americans (which voted 84% for Kerry) do not make up the majority of felons, it will help.  Whether this turns the state, or even a single race is yet to be seen, but it could certainly help.  More importantly however, I say we declare Crist-for the time being at least- a democrats republican.  The man restored voting rights people!