Though official census data won’t be published until the end of the year, Election Data Services has released an updated reapportionment projection, based on population estimates published by GIS software maker Esri. To see how things have changed over the years, I’m including EDS’s projections for 2007, 2008, and 2009. Note that in prior years, EDS used several different models for its forecasts, which is why you see two different possibilities for some states in certain years.
| State | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1 | 1 / 2 | 2 | 2 |
| California | 0 | -1 / 0 | -1 / 0 | 0 / 1 |
| Florida | 2 | 1 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 |
| Georgia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Illinois | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Iowa | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Louisiana | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Massachusetts | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Michigan | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 / 0 |
| Missouri | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Nevada | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| New Jersey | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| New York | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 |
| Ohio | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 |
| Oregon | 0 | 0 | 0 / 1 | 1 |
| Pennsylvania | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| South Carolina | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 1 |
| Texas | 4 | 3 / 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Utah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Washington | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The biggest loser here is New York, which, after two straight years of facing only a single-seat loss, is back two a two-seat drop – though only by the narrowest of margins: the Empire State would get the 436th seat in Congress, if it existed. The other clear loser is Missouri, which swaps places with Minnesota – MN hangs on to its final seat, while Missouri now fails to. And Arizona, which last year could have gained either one or two seats, now looks set to pick up just one. Meanwhile, California (0), Florida (2) and Texas (4) all wind up with their higher projections.
EDS also provides a list of states on the bubble, which you can see below:
| Seat # | State | Makes By/ Misses By |
|---|---|---|
| 431 | South Carolina | 42,248 |
| 432 | Florida | 84,802 |
| 433 | Minnesota | 15,643 |
| 434 | Washington | 12,923 |
| 435 | Texas | 38,005 |
| 436 | New York | 29,439 |
| 437 | California | 99,396 |
| 438 | Arizona | 30,157 |
| 439 | North Carolina | 51,588 |
| 440 | Illinois | 75,046 |
In addition to the states on the lists above, EDS also thinks that Nebraska and Rhode Island are also at risk of losing a seat when the final numbers come out in December.
UPDATE: In comments, Nico takes a look back at EDS’s projections for the prior decade and finds that, while good, they still missed a few things. So we are very likely to see some surprises.