For all of you advanced poll watchers out there, here are some diagnostic tools for seeing whether we’re on track to clear the 50% mark in 10 key states. Long-time SSPers are familiar with the general idea here: take the most important counties and their 2008 presidential numbers, and just perform a simple adjustment ratcheting things down (or up) to 50.
This, of course, is what experts would call “naive extrapolation,” assuming that variation will be identical from county-to-county, and not assuming that various candidates have regional strengths that might cause the numbers to be weighted differently than the presidential map, or that turnout may vary from the 2008 percentages among counties (i.e. counties with large minority populations or college campuses may make a smaller percent of the whole state compared with 2008). (One other problem is that I’m not sure what exactly the AP is going to be reporting tonight, with their decision to end precinct-level reporting. I assume there will still be county-level reporting, though!) With those caveats in mind, here you go:
California
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/48 | 61/37 |
| Los Angeles | 24.4 | 58/40 | 69/29 |
| San Diego | 9.1 | 43/55 | 54/44 |
| Orange | 8.5 | 37/61 | 48/50 |
| Santa Clara | 4.9 | 58/40 | 69/29 |
| Riverside | 4.8 | 39/59 | 50/48 |
| Alameda | 4.6 | 68/30 | 79/19 |
| San Bernardino | 4.5 | 41/57 | 52/46 |
| Sacramento | 4.0 | 47/50 | 58/39 |
| Contra Costa | 3.3 | 57/41 | 68/30 |
| San Francisco | 2.8 | 73/27 | 84/16 |
| Ventura | 2.5 | 44/53 | 55/42 |
| San Mateo | 2.2 | 62/36 | 73/25 |
| Fresno | 2.0 | 39/59 | 50/48 |
Much more over the flip…
Colorado
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| Jefferson | 12.3 | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| El Paso | 11.4 | 36/63 | 40/59 |
| Denver | 11.3 | 71/27 | 75/23 |
| Arapahoe | 11.1 | 52/47 | 56/43 |
| Boulder | 7.2 | 68/30 | 72/26 |
| Larimer | 6.9 | 50/48 | 54/44 |
| Adams | 6.7 | 54/44 | 58/40 |
| Douglas | 6.3 | 37/62 | 41/58 |
| Weld | 4.4 | 41/57 | 45/53 |
| Pueblo | 3.0 | 53/46 | 57/42 |
| Mesa | 2.9 | 30/68 | 34/64 |
Florida
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/49 | 51/48 |
| Miami-Dade | 10.3 | 57/43 | 58/42 |
| Broward | 8.7 | 66/33 | 67/32 |
| Palm Beach | 7.0 | 60/39 | 61/38 |
| Hillsborough | 6.1 | 52/47 | 53/46 |
| Pinellas | 5.5 | 52/46 | 53/45 |
| Orange | 5.5 | 58/41 | 59/40 |
| Duval | 5.0 | 48/52 | 49/51 |
| Brevard | 3.4 | 43/57 | 44/56 |
| Lee | 3.2 | 43/56 | 44/55 |
| Polk | 2.9 | 45/53 | 46/52 |
| Volusia | 2.9 | 51/48 | 52/47 |
| Pasco | 2.6 | 47/52 | 48/51 |
| Sarasota | 2.5 | 48/50 | 49/49 |
| Seminole | 2.5 | 47/52 | 48/51 |
Illinois
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/49 | 62/37 |
| Cook | 38.7 | 64/35 | 76/23 |
| DuPage | 7.6 | 43/56 | 55/44 |
| Lake | 5.4 | 47/52 | 59/40 |
| Will | 5.2 | 44/55 | 56/43 |
| Kane | 3.5 | 43/55 | 55/43 |
| McHenry | 2.5 | 40/58 | 52/46 |
| Madison | 2.3 | 42/56 | 54/44 |
| Winnebago | 2.3 | 43/55 | 55/43 |
| St. Clair | 2.3 | 48/50 | 60/38 |
Kentucky
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/49 | 41/57 |
| Jefferson | 19.4 | 64/34 | 55/43 |
| Fayette | 7.0 | 61/38 | 52/47 |
| Kenton | 3.7 | 48/51 | 39/60 |
| Boone | 2.8 | 41/58 | 32/67 |
| Warren | 2.4 | 49/50 | 40/59 |
| Daviess | 2.4 | 53/45 | 44/54 |
| Campbell | 2.2 | 48/51 | 39/60 |
| Hardin | 2.2 | 48/51 | 39/60 |
Nevada
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/48 | 55/43 |
| Clark | 67.3 | 53/44 | 58/39 |
| Washoe | 18.6 | 50/48 | 55/43 |
| Douglas | 2.7 | 36/62 | 41/57 |
| Carson City | 2.4 | 44/53 | 49/48 |
| Lyon | 2.2 | 35/63 | 40/58 |
Ohio
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/48 | 51/47 |
| Cuyahoga | 11.7 | 68/36 | 69/30 |
| Franklin | 9.8 | 59/40 | 60/39 |
| Hamilton | 7.4 | 52/47 | 53/46 |
| Montgomery | 4.9 | 51/47 | 52/46 |
| Summit | 4.9 | 57/42 | 58/41 |
| Lucas | 3.9 | 64/34 | 65/33 |
| Stark | 3.3 | 51/47 | 52/46 |
| Butler | 3.0 | 37/62 | 38/61 |
| Lorain | 2.6 | 57/41 | 58/40 |
| Mahoning | 2.2 | 61/37 | 62/36 |
| Lake | 2.1 | 48/50 | 49/49 |
Pennsylvania
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/48 | 54/44 |
| Philadelphia | 11.9 | 79/20 | 83/16 |
| Allegheny | 10.9 | 53/46 | 57/42 |
| Montgomery | 7.0 | 56/43 | 60/39 |
| Bucks | 5.5 | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| Delaware | 4.9 | 56/43 | 60/39 |
| Chester | 4.2 | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| Lancaster | 3.8 | 37/59 | 43/55 |
| York | 3.2 | 38/60 | 42/56 |
| Berks | 3.0 | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| Westmoreland | 3.0 | 37/62 | 41/58 |
| Lehigh | 2.5 | 53/46 | 57/42 |
| Luzerne | 2.3 | 49/49 | 53/45 |
| Northampton | 2.3 | 51/47 | 55/43 |
| Dauphin | 2.2 | 50/49 | 54/45 |
| Erie | 2.5 | 55/44 | 59/39 |
Washington
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/47 | 57/40 |
| King | 30.3 | 63/35 | 70/28 |
| Pierce | 10.9 | 48/50 | 55/43 |
| Snohomish | 10.6 | 51/46 | 58/39 |
| Spokane | 7.2 | 41/56 | 48/49 |
| Clark | 6.0 | 45/53 | 52/46 |
| Thurston | 4.2 | 53/45 | 60/38 |
| Kitsap | 4.1 | 48/50 | 55/43 |
| Whatcom | 3.3 | 51/47 | 58/40 |
| Yakima | 2.5 | 37/61 | 44/54 |
| Benton | 2.4 | 29/69 | 36/62 |
West Virginia
| County | % of 2008 statewide vote |
What we need to break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100.0 | 50/49 | 43/56 |
| Kanawha | 11.6 | 56/42 | 49/49 |
| Berkeley | 5.2 | 50/49 | 43/56 |
| Wood | 5.1 | 42/56 | 35/63 |
| Cabell | 4.9 | 51/47 | 44/54 |
| Monongalia | 4.7 | 58/40 | 51/47 |
| Harrison | 4.5 | 49/49 | 42/56 |
| Raleigh | 4.0 | 43/55 | 36/62 |
| Putnam | 3.5 | 45/54 | 38/61 |
| Marion | 3.3 | 56/41 | 49/48 |
| Jefferson | 3.2 | 59/40 | 52/47 |
| Mercer | 2.9 | 42/56 | 35/63 |
| Ohio | 2.7 | 51/48 | 44/55 |
| Wayne | 2.2 | 47/51 | 40/58 |
| Fayette | 2.1 | 55/43 | 48/50 |
| Marshall | 2.0 | 50/48 | 43/55 |