Arizona Redistricting: 5-4 Republican

Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more redistricting maps and election analysis.

Some states such as California have districts that almost never switch parties. In 2006-2010 though, Arizona’s House seats kept switching parties with 6 party switches throughout those years. Before 2006, Arizona had a 6-2 Republican map and after the 2008 elections, it was 5-3 Democratic. After 2010 though, the Republican tide hit here and the delegation shifted to 5-3 Republican. Arizona’s 7th and 8th Congressional District in 2010 also were close to switching parties although Raul Griljava (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) held their respective seats. Why was Arizona filled with competitive districts? They had an independent commission that drew the maps. Although Republicans hold the trifecta by holding the State Legislature and the Governorship, they have no power over redistricting because the commission draws the lines. I drew this map predicting what the commission will draw. Although a few of the districts such as the 5th and the 1st are competitive, I assume that this map will be a 5-4 Republican map. This is fair for Arizona because 5-4 Republican is similar to the partisan makeup of Arizona which leans Republican in most elections. I also strengthened many of the incumbents in this map such as Raul Griljava (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D). My map has 1 Safe Democratic, 2 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Democratic, 2 Lean Republican, and 3 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here are the maps:

Here is a link to Arizona’s current map: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

Also, click the maps if you want the full image

Photobucket

North Arizona

Photobucket

South Arizona

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Paul Gosar (R) Blue

Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 55%

Demographics: 19.2% Native American, 17.1% Hispanic, 59.5% White

Demographics 18+: 16.7% Native American, 14.6% Hispanic, 64.7% White

Old Demographics: 22.4% Native American, 16.4% Hispanic, 58.4% White

Communities: Flagstaff, Prescott, Sierra Vista

Status: Lean Republican

The 1st district does not undergo major changes as it loses Florence and Coolridge in Pinal County. The 1st district picks up all of Cochise County from the 8th district. Cochise County voted 59% for McCain and has large numbers of military members. It also helps make the district more Republican. The 1st district also loses part of Republican Gila County.  Although these changes probably make Gosar’s district a point more Republican, he can still face a tough race. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), the former representative of the 1st district may run. She was one of the few Democrats in a district McCain won to vote against both the Stupak Amendment and the Affordable Care Act. She lost by 6 points which is not a nail biter but narrower than expected. A possibility though is that a Native American candidate may challenge her in the primary.  A possible candidate is openly gay Navajo State Senator Jack Jackson (D) who almost ran for the 1st congressional district in 2006. On the other hand, Kirkpatrick has support with the Navajo Community because she received endorsements in 2010 from many Navajo leaders including Dr. Peterson Zeh, the Navajo Nation President in 2010. This may encourage Navajos, the largest Native American tribe in the 1st district to support Kirkpatrick instead of supporting a Navajo politician for the seat.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District Trent Franks (R) Green

Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 62%

Demographics: 17.6% Hispanic, 72.6% White

Demographics 18+: 14.1% Hispanic, 77.3% White

Old Demographics: 14.2% Hispanic, 78.4% White

Communities: Lake Havasu City, Surprise, Peoria

Status: Safe Republican

The 2nd district undergoes a few changes. It gains conservative La Paz County from the 7th district and keeps the string to the Hopi Reservation intact. The lines there may look convoluted but the Hopi do not want to be represented in the same district as the Navajo so the 2nd district represents them. The 2nd district also retains western Maricopa County which is one of the fastest growing areas in the state. Surprise had 39,000 people in 2000 but has 117,000 today. Most of these newcomers are Republicans and the 2nd becomes more Republican as it loses some Hispanic precincts in Glendale. Franks should have no problems winning reelection in this conservative district.

Photobucket

Phoenix Area

Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District Ben Quayle (R) Purple

Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 55%

Demographics: 19.2% Hispanic, 70.4% White

Demographics 18+: 15.8% Hispanic, 74.6% White

Old Demographics: 14.1% Hispanic, 78.5% White

Communities: Phoenix, Glendale, Paradise

Status: Lean Republican

The 3rd district becomes a point more Democratic as it loses Republican areas in northern Maricopa County such as Cave Creek and Carefree. The 3rd district gains a few Hispanic precincts in Glendale but retains its center in northern Phoenix. Although Quayle won by 11 points in 2010, it was a Republican year and his district is growing more Democratic. Also, Quayle is very conservative and ran an ad saying “Obama was the worst president ever” so his far right views could hurt him against a moderate Democrat in a Democratic year. Jon Hulburd (D) who challenged Quayle last year could run again in 2012 when Obama will probably contest Arizona.

Arizona’s 4th Congressional District Ed Pastor (D) Red

Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 65%

Demographics: 8.1% African American, 59.8% Hispanic, 26.0% White

Demographics 18+: 8.3% African American, 53.2% Hispanic, 32.2% White

Old Demographics: 7.5% African American, 58.0% Hispanic, 29.3% White

Communities: Phoenix

Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district’s lines stay extremely similar to the current ones but there are a couple of changes. The 4th district picks up a few Hispanic precincts from the 3rd district near the intersection of Northern Ave. and Route 17. The 4th also gives a few heavily Hispanic precincts on the eastern Phoenix border to the 5th district in order to make the 5th district more winnable for a Democrat. Besides these minor changes, the 4th district’s lines stay extremely similar to their current form. The district remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

Arizona’s 5th Congressional District Dave Schweikert (R) Yellow

Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 52%

Demographics: 5.1% African American, 4.5% Asian, 30.2% Hispanic, 55.2% White

Demographics 18+: 4.9% African American, 4.7% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 61.2% White

Old Demographics: 2.7% African American, 3.3% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White

Communities : Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa

Status: Lean Democratic

This district undergoes major changes and becomes more Democratic as it loses conservative northern Scottsdale. To compensate for losing northern Scottsdale, the 5th district gains Hispanic neighborhoods in Mesa, Chandler and Phoenix. The less Hispanic parts of Mesa and Chandler are in the conservative 6th district. These changes bring the district’s Hispanic population up to 29% and the 18+ population to 24%. With the addition of the Hispanic areas, the district becomes more Democratic so Democrats have a stronger shot at winning here. Harry Mitchell (D), the district’s representative in 2010 will be 72 at the time of the 2012 election but he may run. If he does not, possible candidates include his son Mark Mitchell (D), the Vice Mayor of Tempe. Arizona Senate Minority Leader Dave Schapira (D) also from Tempe could run here too.

Arizona’s 6th Congressional District Jeff Flake (R) Teal

Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 64%

Demographics: 14.7% Hispanic, 75.1% White

Demographics 18+: 12.1% Hispanic, 78.8% White

Old Demographics: 17.2% Hispanic, 76.6% White

Communities: Apache Junction, Gilbert, Mesa

Status: Safe Republican

The area around Mesa and Apache Junction is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation so the 6th district had to shed population. It grew more Republican as well because it lost western Chandler and western Mesa, both swing areas with a growing Hispanic population. The 6th district also gained the Gila River Indian Reservation which is Democratic but should not alter the political leanings of the 6th district much. Although this district is too conservative to elect a Democrat, the Republicans could face a bruising primary if Jeff Flake (R) retires to run for Senate. The Republican bench is large here and potential candidates include State Senator Thayer Veschoor (R), State Senator Chuck Grey (R), Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (R) or Superintendent of Public Instruction John Huppenthal (R). If Huppenthal ran, he would probably win the primary due to his power as the former Senate Majority Leader but he may want to remain the Superintendent of Public Instruction. Anyway, unless a powerful candidate such as Huppenthal ran who can clear the field, the 6th district will face a large primary.

Photobucket

Tucson Area

Arizona’s 7th Congressional District Raul Griljava (D) Gray

Obama (estimated) 59%

Demographics: 58.0% Hispanic, 4.0% African American, 31.7% White

Demographics 18+: 52.6% Hispanic, 4.0% African American, 37.5% White

Old Demographics: 2.8% African American, 50.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White

Communities: Phoenix, Yuma, Tucson

Status: Likely Democratic

Griljava won by 6 points in a closer than expected race against teabagger Ruth McClung (R) despite his district’s high Hispanic population. I made some changes to his district in order to strengthen him. Also, his district’s current Hispanic 18+ population is below 50% so making Griljava’s district more Hispanic helps boost the Hispanic 18+ population above 50%. It is important to keep the Hispanic 18+ population above 50% because the VRA requires that some districts be not only minority majority but have an 18+ population above 50% too.

Arizona’s 8th Congressional District Gabrielle Giffords (D) slate blue

Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 50%

Demographics: 29.2% Hispanic, 60.8% White

Demographics 18+: 24.7% Hispanic, 65.9% White

Old Demographics: 18.2% Hispanic, 73.9% White

Communities: Tucson, Oro Valley, Catalina

Status: Likely Democratic if Giffords runs, lean Democratic if not

First, I wish Giffords a full recovery from the Tucson shooting last January. If she recovers fully but decides not to return to politics, it is possible her husband Mark Kelly (D), one of the astronauts on the Endeavor will run in her place. Spouses of representatives often replace the representative when the representative is unable to run. Lois Capps (D) in Santa Barbara, Ca replaced Walter Capps (D), Mary Bono (R) replaced Sonny Bono (R) in Riverside County, Ca. Spouses are not always successful though as Stephanie Moore (D) learned when she unsuccessfully ran for her husband’s seat in Kansas. Anyway, if Giffords wants to return to politics, she can run for her House seat or Jon Kyls’ (R) open U.S Senate seat. Even if she does not run for the 8th district, the Democrat here will have a more favorable district. Giffords won last year by 4,000 votes and I removed all of Cochise County which she lost by 4,000 votes. I also removed all her district’s territory in Pinal County which she lost by 1,200 votes. If the election were held under her district’s current lines excluding Cochise and Pinal Counties, Giffords would win by 9,200 votes. Her district becomes even safer and more Tucson centered as it gains part of heavily Hispanic South Tucson from the 7th district and loses conservative areas near Picture Rocks. Although this is not a safely Democratic district, Tucson’s increased clout here will make it easier for Giffords or her replacement to win.

Arizona’s 9th Congressional District Vacant Cyan

Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 58%

Demographics: 21.0% Hispanic, 69.1% White

Demographics 18+: 17.9% Hispanic, 72.9% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Communities: Scottsdale, Casa Grande, Marana

Status: Safe Republican

The lines on this map remove Republican areas from the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th district and I combined those areas in the new 9th district. Those areas include northern Scottsdale in Maricopa County, all of Pinal County except for the Gila River reservation and Apache Junction, part of Gila County and Marana in Pima County. This district is too conservative for a Democrat to win but there could be a competitive Republican primary. Possible candidates could be State Senator Steve Smith (R) from Pinal County or State Senator Michelle Reagan (R) from Scottsdale.  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Virginia Bipartisan Map: 7-4 (Updated with Vote Totals)

Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more redistricting maps.

I was reading the recent diary on Virginia redistricting and saw people calling for a 7-4 Republican map. I decided to post this one to see how it works.

Both parties have a voice in Virginia’s redistricting process this year so expect either a quick compromise or a long battle that ends in a court drawn map. The Republicans control the Governorship and the State House but the Democrats control the State Senate. The Republicans hold an 8-3 majority of Virginia’s House seats, 3 of them were won in 2010. The Republicans will want to protect their freshman Robert Hurt (R) and Scott Rigell (R) who won in swing districts as well as Frank Wolf (R) whose district is trending Democratic. Trying to protect them all will be difficult because the Republicans will not want to create a dummymander. Therefore, I drew a 7-4 Republican map that the Republicans will like because although they lose one district, the 2nd and 5th districts are now more Republican. The Democrats should like this plan too because it strengthens the 11th district and creates a new Democratic district. I also ensured that the 3rd district’s African American population exceeded 50%. As for the districts on the map, there are 3 Safe Democratic, 1 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Republican, 2 Likely Republican and 4 Safe Republican.

Here is a link with a map of Virginia’s current congressional districts (after clicking the link, scroll down to the bottom of the page:) http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

A few notes: The “Average 2000-2009” refers to the average performance of Democrats and Republicans in that district from 2000 to 2009. Change does not refer to the average performance; change refers to how well Obama performed in the new district compared to the old one. “Old Demographics” refers to the demographics of the old district in 2000.

Photobucket

Virginia

Virginia’s 1st Congressional District Rob Whitman (R) Blue

President 2008: Obama 143,841 47%, McCain 165,688 53%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 101,210 44%, Republicans 128,630 56%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 6.1% Hispanic, 19.7% African American, 68.8% White

Old Demographics: 18.4% African American, 74.7% White

Status: Safe Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses parts of Newport News and Hampton in the south and losing Democratic Prince William County in the north. To keep population equal with other districts, the 1st district gains Republican leaning rural counties such as New Kent. The 1st district also picks up the Delmarva Peninsula which leans Democratic but the removal of most of Newport News makes this district more Republican.

Photobucket

Hampton Roads

Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District Scott Rigell (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Green

President 2008: Obama 139,807 48%, McCain 152,608 52%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 101,215 46%, McCain 121,240 54%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 5.0% Asian, 5.9% Hispanic, 21.3% African American, 64.2% White

Old Demographics: 21.4% African American, 67.0% White

Status: Lean Republican

I could not do much to strengthen Rigell because I had to keep the 3rd district majority African American so it could not pick up many precincts that voted for Obama and had a low African American population. Anyway, I strengthened Rigell a bit by removing Hampton and most of Norfolk. I also added Republican parts of Chesapeake where Rep. Randy Forbes (R) of the 4th district lives. If he chooses to run in the 2nd, he will have the seniority advantage but more of Rigell’s current district is in the 2nd. Also, Forbes is popular because although Obama won his district, Forbes has won easily in the past few elections.

Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District Bobby Scott (D) Dark Magenta

President 2008: Obama 194,505 69%, McCain 85,991 31%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 123,854 64%, McCain 69,604 36%

Change: McCain +14

Demographics: 51.3% African American, 39.0% White

Old Demographics: 56.0% African American, 37.7% White

Status: Safe Democratic

Scott’s district gets more Republican as it loses all of Richmond and picks up less Democratic precincts from the 1st in Newport News. I kept the district majority African American by picking up African American areas in Suffolk, Petersburg, and Sussex County. Although Scott’s district becomes more Republican, it is still extremely safe for him and majority African American. He should have no problems winning reelection.

Photobucket

Richmond Area

Virginia’s 4th Congressional District Robert Hurt (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Red

President 2008: Obama 133,903 42%, McCain 187,735 58%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 97,669 41%, Republicans 142,126 59%

Change: McCain +17

Demographics: 23.3% African American, 71.1% White

Old Demographics: 33.1% African American, 62.0% White

Status: Safe Republican

Forbes may run here because this district contains some of his current territory in Chesterfield County and some southeastern rural counties. Hurt will run too because his home Chatham is in this district. If Forbes ran, As for Hurt’s district, I strengthened it because the Republicans will try to protect him from a tough race. I removed heavily Democratic Charlottesville from Charlottesville while adding parts of the current 4th district such as Republican Amelia County near Richmond. Hurt should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Virginia’s 5th Congressional District Vacant Eric Cantor (R) ? Yellow

President 2008: Obama 129,143 43%, McCain 175,646 57%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 92,922 40%, McCain 137,356 60%

Change: N/A

Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 10.8% African American, 79.9% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Status: Safe Republican

Cantor’s 7th district is now Democratic so I expect him to run here, although his home is in the 7th district. The 5th district contains much of his current territory by including some conservative rural counties near Richmond such as Goochland, Hanover County in the Richmond exurbs, Spotsylvania County in the D.C exurbs and the string of rural counties in Central Virginia in Cantor’s current district. The 5th district also picks up some far D.C exurbs though because it represents Winchester and western Loudon County. Cantor used to represent a 53% McCain district that was trending Democratic but his district is now 55% McCain and the rural areas are not trending Democratic. Cantor should be safe here.

Virginia’s 6th Congressional District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal

President 2008: Obama 137,543 46%, McCain 162,585 54%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 102,396 44%, Republicans 130,058 56%

Change: Obama + 7

Demographics: 9.1% African American, 82.2% White

Old Demographics: 10.9% African American, 84.8% White

Status: Safe Republican

Goodlatte’s district becomes more Democratic as it loses heavily Republican Amherst County and picks up Charlottesville. The Republicans will probably want Charlottesville in Goodlatte’s district because it provided Tom Perrellio with his winning margin and more in 2008 and Goodlatte has enough Republicans in his district to offset Democratic votes in Charlottesville. Goodlatte should be safe here.

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District Vacant Gray

President 2008: Obama 186,082 61%, 121,294 McCain 39%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 124,386 54%, Republicans 105,495 46%

Change: N/A

Demographics: 6.7% Hispanic, 34.5% African American, 52.0% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Status: Safe Democratic

Republicans may decide to sacrifice one district in order to protect Robert Hurt and Eric Cantor. The 7th district also helps Scott Rigell (R) in the 2nd district because by losing Richmond, the 3rd district has to pick up African American areas currently in the 2nd district so the 3rd can remain majority African American. Anyway, the 7th district is a combination of the current 3rd, 4th and 7th districts. The 7th contains all of Richmond, all of Henrico County, Chesterfield County’s close in suburbs and Hopewell. In the current map, the Richmond area is split between three districts but the Richmond area now has its own district so Richmond area legislators should like this district. Possible candidates for this seat could be State Senator Donald McEachin (D) who represents part of Henrico County or Henry Marsh (D) who represents some heavily African American parts of the district.

Photobucket

Northern Virginia

Virginia’s 8th Congressional District Jim Moran (D) Slate Blue

President 2008: Obama 178,372 66%, McCain 92,487 34%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 146,592 64%, Republicans 82,791 36%

Change: McCain +7

Demographics: 12.5% Asian, 16.5% Hispanic, 9.9% African American, 57.9% White

Old Demographics: 9.5% Asian, 16.4% Hispanic, 13.4% African American, 57.1% White

Status: Safe Democratic

Moran’s district does not undergo major changes as Moran retains his base in Arlington and Alexandria. His district becomes a few points more Republican in order to protect Gerry Connelly (D) of the 11th district. Moran loses the close in suburbs near Alexandria such as Fort Washington to the 11th District. To compensate for the loss of the close in suburbs near Alexandria, the 8th district gains Democratic parts of McLean, Oakton, Herndon and Tysons Corner. Although Moran’s district is not as Democratic as its current form, Moran should have no problems winning reelection in the general or the primary.

Virginia’s 9th Congressional District Morgan Griffith (R) Periwinkle

President 2008: Obama 111,232 40%, McCain 166,719 60%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 94,587 43%, Republicans 123,531 57%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 3.7% African American, 92.1% White

Old Demographics: 3.8% African American, 93.3% White

Status: Likely Republican

Griffith’s district does not undergo major changes as he loses Alleghany County which usually votes Democratic at a local level. The 9th district had slow population growth so the 9th gained Franklin and Bedford Counties which are both strongly Republican. It is possible Rick Boucher (D) who previously held this district will run again but it will be more difficult for him because of the new Republican counties in the district. Anyway, it was difficult to strength Griffith without creating convoluted lines or making the 6th district Democratic enough for a competitive race.

Virginia’s 10th Congressional District Frank Wolf (R) Deep Pink

President 2008: Obama 149,174 53%, McCain 132,937 47%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 107,560 49%, Republicans 113,791 51%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 17.9% Asian, 11.0% Hispanic, 6.9% African American, 60.7% White

Old Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 7.1% Hispanic, 6.7% African American, 77.2% White

Status: Likely Republican

Northern Virginia is trending Democratic so drawing Wolf a district that will be safe Republican in the long term is impossible but I drew a district that should protect him for the next few years. I removed the western part of the district around Winchester which leans Republican but I also removed the Democratic parts of Herndon, McLean and Manassas. Although the 10th district is growing quickly, it had to gain a few more areas so it gained some moderate areas near Fairfax City and some conservative parts of Prince William County. Wolf is popular so he should hold this seat. If he retires though, Democrats will have a shot here.

Virginia’s 11th Congressional District Gerry Connelly (D) chartreuse

President 2008: Obama 149,097 60%, McCain 99,321 40%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 105,702 55%, Republicans 88,099 45%

Change: Obama +5

Demographics: 10.6% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 17.4% African American, 46.9% White

Old Demographics: 10.9% Asian, 9.1% Hispanic, 10.1% African American, 66.8% White

Status: Likely Democratic

Connelly faced a tough race last year from Keith Fimian (R) in 2010 which is a high water mark for Republicans. If Connelly could survive in 2010, he can survive any year barring a major scandal. Anyway, I strengthened Connelly so he would not have another tough race. I removed the moderate areas near Fairfax City, Fimian’s home Oakton, and conservative parts of Prince William County. I added Democratic areas near Alexandria and Democratic Manassas. These changes should protect Connelly

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

California Redistricting: The Democrats’ Proposal

Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis and redistricting maps.

Before November 2nd 2010, it appeared that Democrats would control the redistricting process because most polls suggested Jerry Brown (D) would become Governor. Brown did win and the Democrats retained their majorities in the state legislature. They, however, lost control of the redistricting process. The voters passed Proposition 20 which transferred the redistricting power from the state legislature to a 14 member commission compromised of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 independents. The commission must draw districts according to communities of interest which are similar communities based on the residents’ ethnicities, location and income. Also, at least three members of each party must approve the map before it takes effect. Even if Democrats do not control redistricting the way they used to, they will certainly propose some maps to the committee that will protect Democratic incumbents and eliminate a few Republicans who are in gerrymandered districts. Although the Democrats crafted the 2002 map as a bipartisan plan, the lines resemble a Republican gerrymander. For example, San Bernardino and Riverside County both cast narrow majorities for Obama and have about 5 districts between them. A Democrat only holds one of those districts. The Democrat is Joe Baca (D) but his district does not even touch Riverside County. So Riverside County which voted for Obama and has enough people for nearly three districts does not even have a Democratic representative. Also, Orange County voted for McCain by three points and has around 3 million people, enough population for almost five districts. How many Democratic districts cover at least part of Orange County? The answer is only one: the 47th district represented by Loretta Sanchez (D) which covers Santa Ana and Anaheim. Although Democrats worry that the independent commission will carve up districts leaving Democratic incumbents with no familiar territory, Democrats should not be too worried. The commission likely will weaken many Republicans too.

This leads to why I am drawing this map and it is because I am predicting what the Democrats will propose to the commission. Although the commission makes the final decision, both parties will draw up proposals suggesting what the commission should do. For the Democrats, their proposal needs to protect their incumbents, create more opportunities in the Inland Empire and Central Valley while not drawing convoluted lines. Also, my proposal respects the VRA which requires a certain number of minority majority districts in order to ensure minorities are not underrepresented in the House. For example, I made the 15th and 32nd districts with Asian representatives more Asian. I also created three new districts designed to elect Hispanics because California’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly and will need representation. Also, California’s Hispanic population is 36% and there are only 8 Hispanic representatives in 53 congressional districts. The problem is that Hispanic turnout rates are low so districts with a Hispanic percentage of 51% will not have enough Hispanic voters to elect a Hispanic representative. If the district is Democratic but has Republican white voters though, there can be enough Hispanics in the Democratic primary to elect a Hispanic candidate. Some of my districts have low Hispanic populations but the population numbers are from 10 years ago so the Hispanic population should be larger. I also created 29 Safe Democratic seats, 5 Likely Democratic seats, 3 lean Democratic seats, 2 Toss Up seats, 2 Lean Republican seats, 2 Likely Republican seats (these could be competitive in a few years if demographic trends continue) and 10 Safe Republican seats. Safe represents a likely 20%+ win for the listed party, likely represents a likely 10%-19% win, lean represents a likely 5%-9% win and tossup represents a likely 0%-4% win. I wanted to create more seats for the Democrats but I did not want convoluted lines because the commission will reject those. Anyway, here are some helpful links and the maps:

Current maps of California’s congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

A few notes: if you want a better picture of the maps, click on them. Also, the demographics are from the 2000 census (2010 data is not available yet.) Old Demographics means the demographics of the old districts. “Change” represents how the partisan makeup of the district is compared to the old lines.  

Photobucket

Northern California

California’s 1st Congressional District Mike Thompson (D)

Obama 190,394 64%, McCain 101,225 34%

Change: McCain +4

Demographics: 19% Hispanic, 69% White

Old Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 71% White

Communities of Interest: Eureka, Clear Lake, Napa

Status: Safe Democratic

Mike Thompson’s district becomes a few points more Republican with the loss of some Sonoma County towns and the addition of Republican Colusa and Glenn Counties. Those changes are not significant population wise and the Democratic counties of Yolo, Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Humboldt keep this district safe for Thompson.

California’s 2nd Congressional District Wally Herger (R)

Obama 123,563 42%, McCain 164,567 56%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 78% White

Old Demographics: 14% Hispanic, 76% White

Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Yuba City

Status: Safe Republican

The district undergoes some geographical changes but the politics and the demographics of the district do not change much. The district loses Trinity, Colusa and Glenn Counties to the 1st but picks up Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties to the east. Those counties make the district a bit more Republican but it was already safe for its representative who called a right wing terrorist a “Great American.” It also remains compact.

Photobucket

Sacramento Area

California’s 3rd Congressional District Dan Lungren (R)

Obama 144,028 51%, McCain 135,025 47%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 6% African American, 7% Asian, 11% Hispanic, 71% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 74% White

Communities of Interest: Citrus Heights, Folsom

Status: Toss Up

In 2008 and 2010, Democrats believed they had the candidate to beat Lungren but he held onto his seat. He won by seven points in 2010 against Ami Bera (D), a strong candidate in a strong Republican year. 2012 should be a neutral year at best for Republicans so if Bera runs again, he would have a strong chance to win. The district is more Democratic now because the district is entirely in Sacramento. It used to contain some Republican leaning rural counties but by losing those, the district becomes more Democratic.

California’s 4th Congressional District Tom McClintock (R)

Obama 152,125 45%, McCain 181,443 53%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 10% Hispanic, 82% White

Old Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 83% White

Communities of Interest: Roseville, Auburn, Nevada City

Status: Safe Republican

The district appears to undergo major changes by losing some northern rural counties but it actually keeps most of its residents. It becomes more of a Sacramento suburban district than a northern rural district though. It picks up rural parts of Yuba County and retains suburban Placer and El Dorado Counties while losing heavily Republican counties in northeast California. McClintock had a tough race here in 2008 and although the district becomes two points more Democratic, McClintock should be safe.

California’s 5th Congressional District Doris Matsui (D)

Obama 170,519 68%, McCain 75,712 30%

Change: McCain +4

Demographics: 13% African American, 16% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 45% White

Old Demographics: 14% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White

Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove

Status: Safe Democratic

Matsui’s district remains similar to its current configuration. It retains heavily minority and Democratic parts of Sacramento County. The only significant difference is that I extended her district up to the northern Sacramento County border to pick up some Republican areas to weaken the 3rd. Matsui’s district is completely safe for her and she is too popular for a successful primary challenge.

Photobucket

Bay Area

California’s 6th Congressional District Lynn Woolsey (D)

Obama 272,880 76%, McCain 81,299 23%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 76% White

Old Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 76% White

Communities of Interest: Novato, San Rafael, Santa Rosa

Status: Safe Democratic

Besides losing the Mendocino County border and picking up the Sonoma Valley, the 6th district does not  change much. It remains very white and heavily Democratic.

California’s 7th Congressional district George Miller (D)

Obama 213,820 64%, McCain 112,657 34%

Change: McCain +15

Demographics: 11% Asian, 12% Hispanic, 70% White

Old Demographics: 17% African American, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White

Communities of Interest: Pinole, Martinez, Danville

Status: Safe Democratic

Miller’s district becomes less Democratic by losing all of its territory except for Pinole, Concord and Martinez (his home.) I had to move Richmond out of his district to boost the African American population of the 9th district. I doubt Miller will like running under these new lines that now include Lafayette, Walnut Creek and Danville. Even though this is the Democrats’ proposal, they will have to make the lines compact for the commission to even consider the proposal. Anyway, this district is too Democratic for a Republican to win because Obama won 64% here which is higher than his statewide average of 61%. Also, no other representative lives in this district so Miller should not face a primary challenge.

Photobucket

San Francisco/Oakland

California’s 8th Congressional District Nancy Pelosi (D)

Obama 283,378 85%, McCain 41,932 13%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 8% African American, 28% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 44% White

Old Demographics: 9% African American, 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 43% White

Communities of Interest: San Francisco

Status: Safe Democratic

Pelosi’s district picks up a few precincts in the Sunset District but besides that, her district does not change at all.

California’s 9th District Barbara Lee (D)

Obama 275,448 90%, McCain 23,750 8%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 28% African American, 16% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 32% White

Old Demographics: 26% African American, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 35% White

Communities of Interest: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland

Status: Safe Democratic

Lee’s district does change a bit as it loses a few Hispanic neighborhoods in South Oakland. Her district’s population growth was minimal so it needed to pick up people. It moved north into Contra Costa County to pick up Richmond with a large African American population. Although Lee should be reelected, she will want a high African American population. Her district will get 2 points more African American and it will be even more Democratic.

California’s 10th Congressional District John Garamendi (D)

Obama 170,310 62%, McCain 99,929 36%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 12% African American, 11% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 52% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 65% White

Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg

Status: Safe Democratic

Garamendi’s district picks up Vallejo in Solano County. It loses Livermore which voted for Bush in 2004, and the 10th district loses the Walnut Creek area. To compensate for the loss of those areas, the 10th district picks up all of Solano County including heavily Democratic Vallejo. The 10th district picks up heavily Democratic Pittsburg too in Contra Costa County. The 10th district also picks up more Central Valley territory because the population growth in the Bay Area is slower than the rest of the state and I needed to push the districts further east to make sure the districts had equal populations. Picking up Lodi to protect McNerney in the 11th district who won by only one point in 2010 does make the 10th district a couple points more Republican. A 62% Obama percentage is high enough to keep Garamendi safe though. Also, Obama did well in the Walnut Creek area formerly in the 10th district but many of the voters there can swing to Republicans. The Democrats in Vallejo and Pittsburg which I moved into the 10th district usually stick with the Democratic ticket though.

California’s 11th District Jerry McNerney (D)

Obama 117,796 56% McCain 90,747 43%

Change: Obama +3

Demographics: 7% African American, 12% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 47% White

Old Demographics: 3% African American, 9% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 64% White

Communities of Interest: Tracy, Stockton, Modesto

Status: Lean Democratic

At a first glance, it appears that McNerney’s district becomes more Republican because it loses all of its territory in Democratic Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties. McNerney’s district becomes three points more Democratic though with the addition of Democratic parts of Stockton, the removal of Lodi and the addition of Democratic parts of Modesto. I did not want to county split here but for population purposes, I had to do so. McNerney should still face challenges but if he could survive in a more Republican district in a very Republican year, he should win in this new district.

California’s 12th District Jackie Speier (D)

Obama 216,757 74%, McCain 70,939 24%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 28% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 46% White

Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 48% White

Communities of Interest: South San Francisco, Redwood City, Half Moon Bay

Status: Safe Democratic

Speier’s district shifts a bit south. She loses a few neighborhoods in SF but picks up some Hispanic neighborhoods in Redwood City. She also picks up Half Moon Bay and all of rural San Mateo County. These changes do not significantly alter her Democratic district.

California’s 13th District Pete Stark (D)

Obama 196,889 73%, McCain 68,594 25%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 9% African American, 22% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 42% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 28% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 38% White

Communities of Interest: San Leandro, Fremont, Pleasanton

Status: Safe Democratic

Stark’s district gets a few points more Republican with the addition of Dublin and Pleasanton. I did not want to connect Stark’s district with those areas but I had to add them for population purposes. Anyway, the district still stays heavily Democratic and safe for Stark.

Photobucket

San Jose

California’s 14th District Anna Eshoo (D)

Obama 224,972 70% McCain 89,228 28%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 15% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 63% White

Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 59% White

Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Saratoga, San Jose

Status: Safe Democratic

Eshoo’s district becomes a few points more Republican by losing northern Santa Cruz County and picking up western San Jose. Yes, I understand that Tom Campbell (R) held a district in the 1990’s similar to this one. The 14th district has trended Democratic rapidly though in the last ten years and Obama won 70% of the vote here. Eshoo should have absolutely no worries, even if Campbell decided to run.

California’s 15th District Mike Honda (D)

Obama 172,003 70% McCain 69,337 28%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 39% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 40% White

Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 47% White

Communities of Interest: Fremont, Cupertino, San Jose

Status: Safe Democratic

This district becomes more Asian by losing white neighborhoods in San Jose while picking up Asian neighborhoods in Fremont and Sunnyvale. It also picks up a few Asian neighborhoods south of Milpitas. These changes bring the Asian population to 39%. The commission has 5 Asians so I expect they will create some districts that will elect Asians such as this one. Honda is Asian but the Asian population in this district ensures that his successor will be too. Although the district is plurality white, these are 2000 population numbers and the district should have a 43%-44% Asian population now, making it plurality Asian.

California’s 16th Congressional District Zoe Lofgren (D)

Obama 152,658 70%, McCain 62,467 29%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 23% Asian, 40% Hispanic, 30% White

Old Demographics: 23% Asian, 38% Hispanic, 31% White

Communities of Interest: San Jose, Gilroy, Morgan Hill

Status: Safe Democratic

Lofgren’s district does not become less Democratic or Republican but an issue arises. Her district gets a few points more Hispanic and with her district’s growing Hispanic population, she may face a primary challenge from a Hispanic. Lofgren should win though because she is familiar with most of the 16th district’s voters and the Hispanic population is still not high enough to unseat her. If she retires in a few years, Hispanics will have a big chance to elect a representative here. Anyway, she gets new territory in Hispanic Gilroy and Morgan Hill. Her district keeps communities of interest though by staying within the county boundaries.

Photobucket

Central California

California’s 17th District Sam Farr (D)

Obama 194,877 71%, McCain 75,094 27%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 54% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White

Communities of Interest: Santa Cruz, Monterey, Paso Robles

Status: Safe Democratic

Farr’s district becomes a few points more Republican but remains very safe. It is still a compact district containing all of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties while taking a small slice of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses all of agricultural San Benito County to the agricultural 18th district. The 17th picks up Republican leaning Paso Robles because it is in the Salinas Valley which is a community of interest in Monterey County. This also keeps Paso Robles out of the 23rd district.

California’s 18th District Dennis Cardoza (D)

Obama 101,440 55%, McCain 80,417 43%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 5% Asian, 45% Hispanic, 43% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 39% White

Communities of Interest: Hollister, Modesto, Merced

Status: Likely Democratic

Cardoza’s district becomes more Republican because the commission will want it to have compact lines. Thus, it will lose the finger into heavily Democratic Stockton. To compensate for the loss, the 18th district will go over the Diablo Range to pick up San Benito County which is mostly agricultural like the rest of the district and leans Democratic. The district splits Madera County with the 19th which  breaks county lines but western Madera is very similar to the rest of the district so it is a community of interest. As for Cardoza himself, his district is more Republican because he loses his stronghold of Stockton. The district is growing Democratic though, he won strongly in 2010, a very Republican year and the current Hispanic population should be close to 50% instead of 45%. He may face a tough challenge in a Republican year but he seems safe enough.

California’s 19th District Jeff Denham (R)

Obama 100,428 42%, McCain 136,148 56%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 63% White

Old Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 59% White

Communities of Interest: Turlock, Mammoth Lakes, Barstow

Status: Safe Republican

The Sierras and the Mojave Desert used to be diced up between the Los Angeles centered 25th district and the formerly Central Valley centered 19th district so they were not united in one district. They are now part of the new 19th which is probably the most rural district in California now. The 19th loses all of Fresno and the parts of the Central Valley it has are mostly rural and white. Barstow may be far from the northern part of the district but these areas have similar residents. As for Denham, his district was already safe so he should be fine.

Photobucket

           Fresno Area

California’s 20th District Jim Costa (D)

Obama 89,084 59%, McCain 60,278 40%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 7% African American, 9% Asian, 55% Hispanic, 26% White

Old Demographics: 7% African American, 6% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 21% White

Communities of Interest: Fresno, Delano

Status: Likely Democratic

Costa faced a tough reelection bid and I would have strengthened his position but I wanted a district that the commission would approve due to compactness. His district gets a couple of points more Republican but he loses part of heavily Republican Kings County which has more in common with Tulare County which is partly in the 21st district. In his close 2010 reelection, he lost Kings County by more than 20 points. Costa gains more of his base in Fresno County. His district has a minority population of 74% as of 2000. It should be larger now. Nonetheless, since he won in 2010, he should be able to win in any year.

California’s 21st District Devin Nunes (R)

Obama 95,433 41%, McCain 132,702 57%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 5% Asian, 34% Hispanic, 54% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White

Communities of Interest: Clovis, Visalia, Hanford

Status: Safe Republican

With the addition of half of Kings County, the 21st district becomes more Republican. While it loses some Republican parts of Tulare County, it also loses some Democratic parts of Fresno County. Although the district looks less compact than its original form, it still contains similar communities.

California’s 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R)

Obama 81,294 40%, McCain 120,919 59%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 6% African American, 35% Hispanic, 53% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 21% Hispanic, 67% White

Communities of Interest: Shafter, Bakersfield, California City

Status: Safe Republican

The district loses portions of Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo Counties. It is now completely in Kern County and it picks up some Democratic neighborhoods in Bakersfield. This makes the 22nd more Democratic but it is still strongly Republican and more compact.

California’s 23rd District Lois Capps (D)

Obama 183,937 58%, McCain 127,332 40%

Change: McCain +16

Demographics: 27% Hispanic, 64% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 48% White

Communities of Interest: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura

Status: Likely Democratic

Santa Barbara, a liberal university town with an economy based largely on tourism is not too similar to northern Santa Barbara County which is conservative and has an economy based on the Vanderburg Air Force Base and agriculture. Northern Santa Barbara County has tried to split from Santa Barbara County for those reasons. The 23rd district will unite them though because compactness is important. The 23rd also picks up all of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses heavily Democratic Oxnard which brings the McCain percentage up to 40%. In the 1990s, the district was competitive with similar lines but this area has trended Democratic since then so I expect Capps will retain her seat.

California’s 24th District Elton Gallegly (R)

Obama 158,267 55%, McCain 126,731 44%

Change: Obama +8

Demographics: 6% Asian, 34% Hispanic, 55% White

Old Demographics: 4% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 69% White

Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, Simi Valley

Status: Tossup

This district loses the conservative parts of Santa Barbara County and picks up heavily Democratic Oxnard instead. This increases the Obama percentage in the district to 55%. Gallegly is an entrenched incumbent but he is not familiar with the voters in Oxnard. Gallegly could win by winning big margins in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Gallegly keeps hinting he wants to retire so these new lines may convince him to do so. If he leaves, the seats will be hotly contested but I expect the Democrat to win by a few points.

Photobucket

West LA

California’s 25th District Buck McKeon (R)

Obama 139,488 50% McCain 132,660 48%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 9% African American, 5% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 55% White

Old Demographics: 8% African American, 4% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 57% White

Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Victorville

Status: Likely Republican

This district shrinks as it loses rural areas in the desert and eastern Sierras. It still resembles a tossup because Obama barely won it but this district is strongly Republican. Kerry won only 40% here and McKeon is highly popular. When he retires, a strong Democrat against a weak Republican can win here but although this area is trending Democratic, it is still Republican at a local level.

California’s 26th District Darrell Issa (R) Grey

Obama 143,487 49%, McCain 142,232 49%

Change: Obama +8 (the old 49th District.)

Demographics: 5% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 62% White

Old Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 57% White

Communities of Interest: San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad

Status: Lean Republican

Although Issa represents the 49th district currently, this district has most of the old 49th district including his home so I expect him to run here. The district has become more Democratic with the removal of conservative inland areas and the addition of some coastal towns such as Carlsbad which lean Democratic. He does pick up conservative San Clemente in Orange County though. Even though Obama won this district, Issa should have an advantage because he contains most of his old territory. A Democratic candidate such as Nick Leibham could run a strong race here though.

Photobucket

LA Area Zoom out

California’s 27th District Adam Schiff (D) (formerly represented the 29th)

Obama 185,229 68%, McCain 79,728 29%

Change: Obama +1

Demographics: 6% African American, 14% Asian, 32% Hispanic, 43% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 24% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 39% White

Communities of Interest: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena

Status: Safe Democratic

Schiff’s district picks up some Hispanics in a few LA neighborhoods and loses a few Asian areas in the eastern part of the district to the 32nd. The district does not undergo major changes overall. Schiff should have no difficulties retaining his seat.

California’s 28th District Vacant

Obama 123,900 72%, McCain 43,547 25%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 5% African American, 7% Asian, 64% Hispanic, 21% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 31% White

Communities of Interest: San Fernando, Los Angeles

Status: Safe Democratic

No matter what the Democrats or Republicans propose, the commission will probably create a strong Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley due to its high Hispanic population and the lack of a Hispanic representative. This district formerly belonged to Howard Berman (D) but he will probably run in the new 30th District or retire. Regardless, a 64% Hispanic population should be enough for a Hispanic to win. A possible candidate would be rising star Alex Padilla (D).

California’s 29th District Henry Waxman (D) (formerly represented the 30th)

Obama 271,019 76%, McCain 78,109 22%

Change: Obama +12

Demographics: 10% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 69% White

Old Demographics: 9% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 76% White

Communities of Interest: Malibu, Beverly Hills, Los Angeles

Status: Safe Democratic

This district was formerly the 30th District. It looks different though because it loses neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley and towns such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas. The district picks up some of Venice Beach to compensate for the population loss. This helps make the district more Democratic even though this district full of Hollywood liberals was safe for Waxman already.

California’s 30th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) (formerly the 27th)

Obama 193,870 65%, McCain 99,181 33%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 10% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 61% White

Old Demographics: 5% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 44% White

Communities of Interest: Agoura Hills, Chatsworth, Northridge

Status: Safe Democratic

This district changes as it picks up the Agoura Hills and Northridge areas. Although this district is too Democratic for a Republican, there might be a big primary fight here. I am not sure if the Democratic party will like combining the two incumbents but the commission will do it in order to create a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. This district combines most of the white parts of the San Fernando Valley. Although this district contains more of Sherman’s territory, Berman is more entrenched and he has the backing of Waxman. His backing may translate into votes in the parts of Waxman’s old district such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas if Waxman campaigns strongly for Berman. Anyway, this will be an interesting race or Sherman may decide not to run here but run in the nearby 24th instead if Gallegly retires.

California’s 31st District Xavier Beccara (D)

Obama 111,611 81%, McCain 22,567 16%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 7% African American, 17% Asian, 64% Hispanic, 9% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 14% Asian, 70% Hispanic, 10% White

Communities of Interest: Downtown Los Angeles, Clement Junction, Silver Lake

Status: Safe Democratic

Beccara’s district becomes more compact as it picks up areas such as Boyle Heights from the 34th District. It loses a few Hispanics but still remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

Photobucket

Los Angeles Zoom in

California’s 32nd District Judy Chu (D)

Obama 134,143 59% McCain 86,631 38%

Change: McCain +17

Demographics: 31% Asian, 38% Hispanic, 25% White

Old Demographics: 18% Asian, 62% Hispanic, 15% White

Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, El Monte, Glendora

Status: Safe Democratic

The commission will probably create a district where an Asian candidate can win in this part of LA County. The district could be extended into Asian neighborhoods in Diamond Bar but I doubt they will do that because it will create convoluted lines if they want to connect Asian areas in Monterey Park and Diamond Bar. The 32nd district loses Hispanic Baldwin Park but picks up Asian areas near Arcadia. Although Asians are not the plurality in the district, they have higher voter turnout rates than Hispanics so Chu should survive a primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate. Chu’s current district is 62% Hispanic and 18% Asian so the possibility of a strong Hispanic candidate challenging her in the primary looms. The district becomes more Republican because the new Asian areas such as San Marino and Arcadia are not heavily Democratic. Obama’s 21 point win here should be high enough to protect Chu and she should perform higher than Obama among Asians too.

California’s 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Purple

Obama 208,574 90% McCain 20,884 9%

Change: Obama +6

Demographics: 39% African American, 6% Asian, 44% Hispanic, 9% White

Old Demographics: 30% African American, 12% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 20% White

Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Inglewood

Status: Safe Democratic

With the inclusion of Inglewood, this becomes the most Democratic district in California. The district becomes more Democatic. On this new map, it is the most Democratic district in California. Also, I had to eliminate one African American district in LA because it will be difficult for all three African Americans to hold their districts as the Hispanic population grows. Bass’s district’s African American population rises from 30% to 39%. While Hispanics are still a plurality here, African Americans make up the majority of Democratic primary voters so Bass should be safe.

California’s 34th District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Green

Obama 129,907 73%, McCain 44,871 25%

Change: McCain +4

Demographics: 5% Asian, 78% Hispanic, 12% White

Old Demographics: 6% Asian, 77% Hispanic, 11% White

Communities of Interest: East Los Angeles, Downey, Norwalk

Status: Safe Democratic

Yes, I understand this district may be too narrow and too long so the commission may not think it is compact. A district like this is necessary though because if it were more compact around the East Los Angeles area, the Hispanic population would be considered too high and it would be considered packing under the VRA. Many of the Hispanic areas there are around 90% Hispanic. Other Hispanic majority districts would not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic representative if they cannot pick up heavily Hispanic neighborhoods such as East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera and Lynwood. Anyway, Allard’s district is still 78% Hispanic even while picking up less Hispanic Whittier and Norwalk which makes the district a few points more Republican but still safe for Allard.

California’s 35th District Maxine Waters (D)

Obama 174,206 84%, McCain 29,312 14%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 35% African American, 10% Asian, 46% Hispanic, 7% White

Old Demographics: 34% African American, 6% Asian, 47% Hispanic, 10% White

Communities of Interest: Gardena, Compton, Carson

Status: Safe Democratic

The 35th District is now a combination of the current 35th and 37th districts but much of the 37th District is in the new 46th District so Waters has a bit more territory here. Although her district loses her base of Inglewood and picks up Compton and Carson from the 37th District, Waters should win.

California’s 36th District Vacant

Obama 183,287 60%, McCain 115,882 38%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 14% Asian, 29% Hispanic, 49% White

Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 48% White

Communities of Interest: Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Rancho Palos Verdes

Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Republican as it loses most of Venice Beach and picks up Republican leaning Rancho Palos Verdes. This district had similar territory in the 1990s and was very competitive. The territory has trended Democratic very quickly with Kerry performing better than Gore here while Gore performed better than Kerry statewide. Obama’s 60% of the vote here is very close to his statewide average of 61%. The current congresswoman Jane Harman (D) will resign soon. The Democrats though have strong candidates running to including former city councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) and popular Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D). They should keep this district in the Democratic column.

California’s 37th District David Dreier (R) (formerly the 26th District)

Obama 128,094 56%, McCain 95,077 42%

Change: Obama +10

Demographics: 7% African American, 9% Asian, 44% Hispanic, 37% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 15% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 52% White

Communities of Interest: Covina, Pomona, Chino Hills

Status: Likely Democratic

The 37th straddles the border between Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. As for the party strength in this district, Obama may have won with 56% of the vote here but if the Republican candidate is extremely popular and can make inroads with Hispanics, he or she could win. David Dreier (R)’s district was eliminated on this map. He could run here because it contains part of his old district with Upland but he is not familiar with the mostly Democratic Covina or Pomona voters so a Democrat could win here with large margins from those two cities. As for Hispanic representation, the district is probably close to 50% Hispanic now. They would not make up the majority of the votes but there may be enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic in the Democratic primary because many of the white voters in this district are Republican.

California’s 38th District Grace Napolitano (D)

Obama 142,359 67%, McCain 67,249 31%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 21% Asian, 60% Hispanic, 14% White

Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic, 14% White

Communities of Interest: Pico Rivera, Baldwin Park, Diamond Bar

Status: Safe Democratic

This district becomes more Republican by losing Norwalk and picking up Diamond Bar. Napolitano lives in Norwalk but she should run here since it contains most of her old district. Also, the district loses Hispanics but the 60% Hispanic population should protect Napolitano.

California’s 39th District Linda Sanchez (D)

Obama 126,006 72%, McCain 46,251 26%

Change: Obama +12

Demographics: 9% African American, 9% Asian, 67% Hispanic, 14% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 10% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 21% White

Communities of Interest: Huntington Park., Lynwood, Lakewood

Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Democratic and Hispanic with the loss of swing areas such as La Mirada and the addition of heavily Hispanic Huntington Park. Sanchez should have no problems here.

Photobucket

Orange/Riverside Counties

California’s 40th District Ed Royce (R)

Obama 125,615 48%, McCain 131,448 50%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 14% Asian, 32% Hispanic, 48% White

Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 49% White

Communities of Interest: La Mirada, Fullerton, Orange

Status: Likely Republican

Royce’s district keeps most of its old territory but expands a bit. It picks up the swing area La Mirada in Los Angeles County as well as Whittier. It loses marginal Los Alamitos. These changes make the district a bit more Democratic. Royce is popular here though so he should win. If Royce retires at the end of the decade though, a Democrat could make this competitive.

Photobucket

San Bernardino Area

California’s 41st District Jerry Lewis (R)

Obama 114,430 43%, McCain 145,829 55%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 5% African American, 23% Hispanic, 65% White

Old Demographics: 5% African American, 23% Hispanic, 64% White

Communities of Interest: Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Banning

Status: Safe Republican

The district grew so it will shed some territory. It lost most of rural San Bernardino County including Barstow and Needles. It also loses Republican leaning Hemet and San Jacinto. It does pick up Republican leaning Rancho Cucamonga though. Rancho Cucamonga is not next to the bulk of the district’s population which is east of San Bernardino and Riverside. Rancho Cucamonga can be considered a community of interest though because it has similar demographics and voting habits with the rest of the district. Also, connecting Rancho Cucamonga to the rest of the district does not create convoluted lines.

California’s 42nd District Gary Miller (R)

Obama 147,589 46%, McCain 170,780 53%

Change: Obama +1

Demographics: 15% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 66% White

Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 54% White

Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest

Status: Safe Republican

Gary Miller’s home is now in the heavily Hispanic 38th district but I believe he will run here since this district contains much of his old territory. The district is now completely in Orange County and it picks up Democratic leaning Irvine. These changes do not change the political composition of the district much though. Miller should be safe.

California’s 43rd District Joe Baca (D)

Obama 106,880 64%, McCain 55,738 34%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 14% African American, 5% Asian, 50% Hispanic, 28% White

Old Demographics: 12% African American, 3% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 23% White

Communities of Interest: Fontana, Colton, San Bernardino

Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Republican and less Hispanic by losing Democratic Ontario and picking up Republican leaning Highland. The district is 72% minority and the minority percentage should be higher now. The Hispanic population of the old district was 58% in 2000 but grew to 66% in 2010 so the Hispanic population of this district should currently be in the high 50’s. That should be enough to protect Baca.

California’s 44th District Vacant (R)

Obama 95,838 62% McCain 54,979 36%

Change: N/A

Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Asian, 48% Hispanic, 33% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Communities of Interest: Ontario, Riverside, Moreno Valley

Status: Likely Democratic

This is the new minority majority district in the Inland Empire which contains Hispanic neighborhoods in Ontario as well as Riverside and Moreno Valley. The district was not Hispanic majority in 2000 but should be in the low 50s now. Although Hispanics may not make up the majority of the voters, they should make up the majority of the Democratic primary voters because many of the whites in the 44th District vote Republican. Also, this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican so the Democrat who wins here should be safe.

California’s 45th District Ken Calvert (R) (formerly the 44th)

Obama 104,697 49% McCain 103,291 49%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 33% Hispanic, 52% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 51% White

Communities of Interest: Corona, Riverside, San Jacinto

Status: Lean Republican

This district at first looks like a pure tossup when considering the vote totals but it leans Republican because Obama over performed in the Inland Empire. Democrats have a shot here though because Ken Calvert (R) is a weak incumbent and won in 2008 only because of margins in Orange County. His district loses Orange County while picking up Democratic Perris and marginal San Jacinto. Although the district gets a point more Republican, it is quickly trending Democratic. Also, Bill Hedrick (D) in 2008 received almost no support from national Democrats but lost by only 2 points against Calvert. If Hedrick runs in a good Democratic year and receives support from national Democrats, he should win.

California’s 46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Obama 149,749 58% McCain 103,370 40%

Change: Obama +20

Demographics: 8% African American, 16% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 42% White

Old Demographics: 1% African American, 15% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 62% White

Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach

Status: Lean Democratic

The district becomes more Democratic with the addition of Democratic areas in Long Beach. The removal of Costa Mesa and most of Huntington Beach helps too. Rohrabacher is popular but even he should not win in a 58% Obama district. Also, the new Democratic voters from Long Beach are not familiar with him so he will not be able to win by getting Democrats in Long Beach to ticket split. An issue with this district is that western Long Beach may not be considered a community of interest with the rest of the district. It should work because it is in the same city limits as eastern Long Beach which is currently in the 46th District and should be a community of interest with the Orange County part of the district. Also, the addition of most of Long Beach makes the district compact and it formerly had a thin line going to Rancho Palos Verdes.

California’s 47th District Loretta Sanchez (D)

Obama 85,661 59%, McCain 57,061 39%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 15% Asian, 62% Hispanic, 19% White

Old Demographics: 14% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 17% White

Communities of Interest: Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove

Status: Safe Democratic

Sanchez’s district does not change much because it is already a Hispanic majority district and it contains similar communities. She picks up more of Garden Grove which may not be the best idea because her 2010 challenger Van Tran (R) is popular there. She should be safe because she won by double digits in 2010, an extremely Republican year and if she were strong then, she is strong now.

California’s 48th District John Campbell (R)

Obama 150,612 46%, McCain 167,583 52%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 8% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 71% White

Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 68% White

Communities of Interest: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach

Status: Safe Republican

Campbell’s district loses Irvine and becomes the coastal district. It picks up Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa. Although the district is narrow, it certainly picks up communities of interest by getting all the beach towns. The district becomes more Republican with the loss of Irvine but Campbell was pretty safe anyway. This district may be open to voting for a libertarian Democrat if they view Campbell as one of the big government Republicans but for now, this district remains Republican.

California’s 49th District Mary Bono (R) (formerly the 45th District)

Obama 116,668 44%, McCain 145,303 55%

Change: McCain +16

Demographics: 23% Hispanic, 68% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 38% Hispanic, 50% White

Communities of Interest: Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Palm Springs

Status: Safe Republican

Bono’s old district contained Moreno Valley and voted for Obama by 5 points. Her district is now more Republican with the removal of Moreno Valley and heavily Hispanic Coachella. Her district picks up Republican Murrieta and Temecula though. Although Palm Springs leans Democratic, Murrieta and Temecula more than cancel out the Democratic votes there.

Photobucket

San Diego Area

California’s 50th District Brian Bilbray (R)

Obama 201,068 59%, McCain 133,105 39%

Change: Obama +16

Demographics: 15% Asian, 11% Hispanic, 67% White

Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 66% White

Communities of Interest: Del Mar, San Diego

Status: Lean Democratic

Bilbray has represented San Diego for a number of years and he is used to running in districts that lean Democratic. His old 50th District voted for Obama by a couple of points. He should lose in this district though because he picks up more of San Diego City including some white liberal areas from the 53rd. This increases the Obama percentage to 59% and that should be enough to beat him. This district also fits the guidelines for the commission by remaining compact and taking in similar neighborhoods. It is possible Susan Davis (D) from the 53rd will run here because her district’s white population may be too small for her and the 50th district contains part of her old district. She ran against Bilbray in 2000 and it will be an interesting rematch. She should win though.

California’s 51st District Bob Filner (D)

Obama 119,277 58%, McCain 82,165 40%

Change: McCain +9

Demographics: 6% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 26% White

Old Demographics: 9% African American, 12% Asian, 53% Hispanic, 21% White

Communities of Interest: Coachella, El Centro, Chula Vista

Status: Safe Democratic

Bob Filner is a popular representative but the commission will create a Hispanic majority district with parts of San Diego.  He has handily beaten back primary challenges from Hispanics though in a 53% Hispanic district. He won with support from African Americans and Asians and he loses many of those voters to the 53rd district. He retains most of his old territory so he may survive. Nonetheless, his district becomes more Hispanic by picking up Coachella and Indio. I have also heard of proposals to connect Imperial County to an eastern San Diego County district. Those areas do not have much in common though and Hispanics need a district in the San Diego area. The district becomes more Republican too though by losing National City and some Democratic neighborhoods in San Diego but remains safe for Filner.

California’s 52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R)

Obama 128,894 44%, McCain 160,825 55%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 5% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 69% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 73% White

Communities of Interest: Poway, San Diego, El Cajon

Status: Safe Republican

The district was already Republican but it becomes even more Republican. It loses most of San Diego City except the northeastern area and picks up Republican leaning Escondido. Hunter should have no problems here.

California’s 53rd District Susan Davis (D)

Obama 116,327 70%, McCain 46,533 28%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 14% African American, 14% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 26% White

Old Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 29% Hispanic, 51% White

Communities of Interest: National City, San Diego

Status: Safe Democratic

Davis’s district gets less white as it loses more northern parts of San Diego and picks up National City. These changes make the district more Democratic but less safe for Davis. She faces the possibility of a primary challenge from a minority candidate. She should survive because many of the voters in the new 53rd are from her old district and whites probably outnumber Hispanics in the Democratic primary. Also, Davis should get support from African Americans and Asians. Filner may give her a primary challenge here though.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Redistricting Louisiana: Deep fried, heavily seasoned and served hot

Drawing from a rather long comment I had on a previous diary, I’ve decided to expand my one part diary on redistricting in the Bayou State to two.

The first part will run through recent developments in state politics and who controls the redistricting process, while the second will include my proposed map for Louisiana’s 6 congressional districts.

In my honest opinion, Louisiana is the state least alike the other 47 states that make up the continental United States.

Administrative subdivisions are called parishes, not counties. It is a civil law state, as opposed to the other 49 common law states.

Politics in the state are no different.

Party labels are very fluid. In state government, there are conservative Democrats – although less so now – and some fairly moderate Republicans, especially for standards of the Deep South.

In the past few months, Democrats have taken a hit, and in Louisiana, it has been no different.

For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans control the state house. There is a Republican governor, and after Attorney General Buddy Caldwell’s party switch last week, the only statewide elected Democrat is Sen. Mary Landrieu.

That leaves the state senate, which currently is split right down the middle, 19 Democrats and 19 Republicans.

This gridlock is a result of party switchers, notably state Sen. John Alario, and a single vacancy.

Redistricting in the state is done by the legislature and the governor and it seems the last chance for Democrats to be at the table, outside the Holder DOJ, is the state senate.

Let’s look at that vacancy.

The 26th district is vacant after Sen. Nick Gautreaux resigned to become Bobby Jindal’s commissioner of the Office of Motor Vehicles.

(Just an aside, this appointment and that of a former independent state senator as the Commissioner of the Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control was smart politically by the governor and is VERY reminiscent of President Obama’s appointments of Jon Huntsman and John Mchugh)

The 26th district includes all of Vermillion parish and parts of Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry parishes.

The district takes in areas of Cajun country west of Lafayette and stretches down south to include Vermillion parish, ending at the Gulf. To better understand the region, the 2000 census reported about a quarter of people in Vermillion speak French or Cajun French at home.

This area is historically Democratic. In the jungle primary in the 2003 gubernatorial election, 3 of the 4 parishes in district 26 were won by Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who would win only 7 parishes and grab only 18% of the vote but squeak into the general election against Bobby Jindal.

This small chunk of Acadiana will decide which party will control the state senate.

After Gautreaux’s announcement that he would resign, Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry, who represents much of the sparsely populated coastal parts of Vermillion and Cameron parishes, entered the race.

Soon thereafter, Democrat Nathan Granger, a member of the Vermillion Parish Police Jury and owner of an oilfield services company, entered the race.

At this stage in the race, both camps have released dueling internals showing each with about a 10 point lead.

Anecdotally, I have heard from a friend from Crowley that the area is swamped with advertisements from Granger and after reviewing campaign finance reports, it appears that is the case.

As of Jan. 31, campaign finance reports show Granger raised about 280k, of which 220k was self-funded, with 100k COH.

Perry has raised 90k and has 30k COH.

Take all this with a grain of salt, but it appears that this Blue Dog might just dispatch a Tea Partier in a very important race for Louisiana politics.

In part 2, the map I unveil will show why Democrats need to have a seat at the redistricting table as I attempt to create a VRA district based in New Orleans that DOES NOT stretch all the way to Baton Rouge.

Redistricting the Virginia State Senate: Can Democrats Maintain a Majority?

The problem: Democrats are going into redistricting with a 22-18 advantage in the Virginia State Senate. They have to either hold on to 21 of those seats or carve out new seats that they can win. The question is, can they succeed? I’ve tried my best to come up with a map that gives Democrats a good chance at holding their majority.

State Map



Click for bigger view.

As you can see, it ain’t pretty. I attempted to maintain as much population equality as possible, trying to keep districts under 1,000 population variance; with districts that are targeted around 194,000 people, this is well within the normal variance allowed for state legislative districts. The Democrats may be able to massage the numbers some more than I was willing to try. To compare, you can see the 2007 results and existing Senate districts at the Virginia Public Access Project.

We’ll start in Southwestern Virginia and work our way around the state.

SD-40, incumbent: William Wampler Jr. (R)

Not much you can do with this part of the state. It’s pretty much the same as the existing district, except expanded a bit to the east to up the population.

SD-38, incumbent: Phil Puckett (D)

Believe it or not, Puckett went unopposed in 2007. Given the extreme shift away from the Democrats that this part of the state has undergone in the past couple years, I can’t imagine that will be the case this year. Again, there’s not much you can do here; the best I could do was stretch the district out to pull in Radford from SD-22.

SD-20, incumbent: Roscoe Reynolds (D)

Reynolds did have an opponent in 2007, but trounced him. I tried to help him out by putting Danville into the district, along with some parts of Pittsylvania County that have a high African-American population. The district’s black population is 25%.

SD-21, incumbent: John Edwards (D)

No, not that John Edwards. This is the one safe Democratic district this far south, as it contains Montgomery County, Roanoke, and not much else.

SD-22, incumbent: Ralph Smith (R)

Smith knocked off the incumbent in a primary in 2007, then barely beat the Democratic candidate. Rather than try to replicate that feat (because, quite frankly, if they couldn’t win it in 2007, they’re not going to win it in 2011), I just dumped all of the Roanoke suburbs into the district, so it will be safe for the Republicans.

SD-23, incumbents: Steve Newman (R), William Stanley (R)

A district had to be eliminated and spirited off to Northern Virginia, and the obvious choice is the existing 19th, as it has some Dem-friendly parts that can be appended to the 20th, and Stanley is the junior-most Senator, having just been elected this month. This is an extremely Republican district consisting of a rural swath of land between Lynchburg and Roanoke.

SD-15, incumbent: Frank Ruff (R)

Another very Republican district dominated by Lynchburg and Amherst County. It stretches down to the North Carolina border because Ruff lives in the very southeastern tip of the district.

On to Southside and Richmond…

SD-13, incumbent: none

This is where the Democrats need to get creative. The 13th used to be Republican Fred Quayle’s district, stretching from Portsmouth to Hopewell; I’ve created a district to replace it centered in Emporia, Petersburg, and the Southside counties with high black populations. In fact, this district is very narrowly majority-black (50.2%). It should be a prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

SD-11, incumbent: Stephen Martin (R) (possibly)

Martin’s residence is just listed as “Chesterfield County” on Wikipedia, and there’s nothing on his campaign website that says where in the county he lives, but this is the district he would run in. It’s a solidly Republican district that takes in Amelia and Nottoway Counties as well as part of Chesterfield.

SD-10, incumbent: John Watkins (R)

Watkins does live in this district. It’s another solidly-Republican suburban Richmond district.

SD-12, incumbent: Walter Stosch (R) (possibly)

Again, Stosch is just listed as being in Henrico County, which is chopped up between four districts. This is an attempt to create as Dem-friendly a district as possible. It’s still a Republican-leaning district, but it’s more likely a 55-45 district than the 60-40 district it is now.

SD-16, incumbent: Henry Marsh (D)

Marsh’s district was drawn to soak up as many black voters as possible. I’ve dropped it down to 51% black, as it loses the southern end of the district, including Petersburg. Still safe Dem.

SD-9, incumbent: Don McEachin (D)

This one loses part of Richmond and gains more of Henrico. Still majority-black, at 52%, and safe Dem.

Now we’re on to my part of the state, Hampton Roads.

SD-1, incumbent: John Miller (D)

Miller barely beat a nutcase back in 2007, so he really needs a better district. I axed the Poquoson/York/Hampton part of the district, gave him all of Newport News, and ran the district up to Williamsburg and across the James River to Surry/Sussex/Franklin. It should make his district much less Republican.

SD-2, incumbent: Mamie Locke (D)

Locke’s district consists of all of Hampton and the southern end of Newport News. Remains majority-black at 53%. Safe Dem.

SD-18, incumbent: Louise Lucas (D)

Maintains the African-American majority (53% black) without the ridiculous stretched-across-a-third-of-the-state shape that it has currently. Most of Portsmouth and part of Suffolk.

SD-5, incumbent: Yvonne Miller (D)

Another majority-black district; it’s the minority-heavy parts of Norfolk, Chespeake, and a few precincts from Virginia Beach. 55% black, safe Dem.

SD-6, incumbent: Ralph Northam (D)

Northam’s district is the white-majority half of Norfolk, the Eastern Shore, and one or two precincts in Virginia Beach. It’s 27% black. Should be pretty safe for Northam.

SD-7, incumbent: Frank Wagner (R) (possibly)

Wagner may or may not live here, I have no idea. He’s somewhere in Virginia Beach. This was an attempt to create as Dem-friendly a district as you can get in Virginia Beach. It’s certainly more diverse than the city at-large; it’s 60% white, 23% black, 7% Asian, and 7% Hispanic. It would still be an uphill climb for a Democrat to win here, but it is at least possible.

SD-8, incumbent: Jeff McWaters (R)

I’m pretty sure McWaters lives here, though. It’s the very Republican Virginia Beach/Chesapeake district.

SD-14, incumbent: Harry Blevins (R) (possibly), Fred Quayle (R)

Again, Blevins lives in Chesapeake, but I have no idea where. Quayle lives in Suffolk, but he’s probably retiring regardless of how the map looks, so that doesn’t matter. This district takes in the white parts of Chesapeake, Suffolk, Portsmouth, as well as parts of Sussex, Southampton, and Isle of Wight Counties. It should be a pretty Republican district.

Okay, that was a lot. Let’s move on to the Tidewater area.

SD-3, incumbent: Tommy Norment (R)

Norment gets a district consisting of a swath of Republican areas between Newport News and the Northern Neck.

SD-4, incumbent: Ryan McDougle (R)

This district actually shrinks, which is a good thing, because it contains some swing counties that I needed for the 17th. It’s centered in the Hanover County exurbs, which are bright-red.

SD-17, incumbent: Edd Houck (D)

A ridiculous snake of a district that attempts to shore up Houck as much as possible. He lives in Spotsylvania, and it stretches from Culpeper in the northwest down to King & Queen and Essex Counties in the southeast.

SD-28, incumbent: Richard Stuart (R)

Northern Neck to Stafford. Actually shrinks, since it used to go all the way up to Fauquier. Should remain in Republican hands; Del. Al Pollard would be about the only candidate to make it competitive, and he lost when the seat was open in 2007.

Okay, two more regions to go. First is the Shenandoah Valley.

SD-25, incumbent: Creigh Deeds (D)

The Deeds district. Pretty much the same as before, should remain safe Dem, as the population is centered in Albemarle/Charlottesville.

SD-24, incumbent: Emmett Hanger (R)

Not much changes here; still a heavily Republican district in Augusta/Rockingham.

SD-26, incumbent: Mark Obenshain (R)

Same as above. Stretches up to Frederick County to pull some territory out of the 27th.

SD-27, incumbent: Jill Holtzman Vogel (R)

JHV narrowly won in 2007, but she’ll be happy with this district; it cuts out the parts that she didn’t win that year (Loudoun and Clarke Counties and Winchester).

And finally, here’s Northern Virginia.

SD-19, incumbent: none

A new district formed out of parts of the 27th and 33rd. The parts from the 27th were won by the Democratic candidate, Karen Schultz. It also takes in the southern end of the 33rd. This is a winnable district for Democrats, but it would likely depend on the candidate quality and the climate.

SD-33, incumbent: Mark Herring (D)

Herring’s district is reconfigured to span Leesburg to Sterling, and Herring should be pretty happy with that.

SD-29, incumbent: Chuck Colgan (D)

Colgan is expected to retire, and I can’t say that’s a whole lot you can do with his district. The areas around Manassas are the most Dem-friendly parts of the old district, but with Del. Jackson Miller, a Manassas native, a likely candidate for the seat, it’s going to be tough for Democrats to hold it.

SD-36, incumbent: Toddy Puller (D)

Puller’s district remains one that stretches from Mt. Vernon to southern Prince William County.

SD-39, incumbent: George Barker (D)

After the 29th, this is probably the most vulnerable district in NoVa. I tried to strengthen it by running it up to inner Fairfax. It might just be a good idea to give up on the 29th and put as much of Prince William in that district, while making the 39th a mostly-Fairfax district.

SD-37, incumbent: Dave Marsden (D)

Marsden’s district, as currently drawn, is intended to be as polarized as possible. Redrawn, it’s centered around Marsden’s home of Burke, so it will be much safer for him.

SD-34, incumbent: Chap Petersen (D)

Chap lives in Fairfax City, and should have little trouble holding down this district.

SD-32, incumbent: Janet Howell (D)

Howell’s district currently stretches from Reston, through Great Falls, and into McLean. This district stretches from Reston around to the southwestern edge of the county. It might be somewhat less Democratic now, but someone’s got to take those Republican precincts.

SD-31, incumbent: Mary Margaret Whipple (D)

This district is currently mostly Arlington, but I decided to stretch it out to Great Falls. You’d think you could unpack these districts more, but it’s tough when all the surrounding territory is Democratic.

SD-30, incumbent: Patsy Ticer (D)

Arlington/Alexandria, probably the most Democratic district in this map.

SD-35, incumbent: Dick Saslaw (D) (possibly)

Saslaw lives somewhere in Fairfax, but where, I don’t know. It may require some precinct swapping to get him in this district. Either way, it’s safe.

So there you have it. I’m not sure if I can answer my question, because there are a lot of variables in play here. The Democrats’ majority is hanging by a thread, and there are a lot of Democrats in tough districts (at least as currently drawn). It’s going to be interesting to see how they proceed.

Handicapping the VA 2011 races in NoVA (Part 1-State Senate)

One of the few states holding elections this year is Virginia, where the entire state senate and house of delegates will be up for reelection in addition to some local races. I will be doing a series of diaries offering my early assessment of how the races here in Northern Virginia could turn out, and what that could mean for 2012. This diary will cover state senate races, Part II the races in the house of delegates, and Part III the local races for offices like County Supervisor. These races seem very down in the weeds, but in a crucial state for 2012 like VA they can give an idea how strong each party is leading up to the presidential election.

The state senate is controlled by Democrats, who took the senate in the 2007 elections. The state senate is currently the last bastion of Democratic control in VA, so taking it back will certainly be the #1 goal of the VA GOP in 2011. The GOP has a fairly easy path towards taking back the senate; they need to flip three seats in order to regain control (a two-seat gain for the GOP would result in a tie, giving tie-breaking power to republican lt. gov Bill Bolling). The GOP could do this by defeating long-serving blue dog senators in extremely conservative districts in the southern part of the state. Many of these senators have been considered so entrenched that they haven’t faced a serious challenge in a while, but OTOH the GOP has had some success in winning against similar incumbents across the south recently. Regardless of what happens in the south of the state, there will certainly be a lot of contested races up here in NoVA, and that is what I intend to cover. The one caveat here is that we don’t know what redistricting will do to many of these districts. I will try my best to make predictions as to what redistricting could do to these races, but as with many races that is a major unknown here.

One of the resources I will be using heavily here are the great maps provided by the Virginia Public Access Project. They have maps down to the precinct level of all statewide and state legislative elections across Virginia available by county, house district, or senate district, not to mention all the other cool stuff that they have (maps of turnout, detailed info on redistricting, fundraising info, etc). I don’t know of any other state that has such a good resource available.

Let’s start with the easiest districts to predict. The 30th, 31st, and 35th are all highly democratic seats that will not be competitive this year. Safe D

Now on to the more interesting districts.

* 32nd District

Areas: McLean, Great Falls, Reston, Herndon

Senator: Janet Howell (D)

2009 Gov: 53% Deeds, 47% McDonnell



2008 Pres: 60% Obama, 39% McCain



2007 State Senate: Uncontested

2011 Elections

We don’t take off odd-numbered years here at SSP, because we know that you don’t, either. There are a handful of bigger races taking place in 2011, but we want to hear about the elections happening in your neck of the woods that most folks aren’t really paying attention to. The Houston Chronicle has a look at a handful of interesting races going on this year, but we know this community can go much further into the weeds. So talk to us, people!

Chicago Mayor: Who’s In, Who’s Out, and Who’s Endorsing Who

It’s been less than a week since Bill Brady conceded defeat to Governor Quinn, but nomination petitions for Mayor (and Aldermen) can be filed starting next Monday, November 15th, and due a week after that, November 22nd.

Last time we discussed this race, it seemed like everyone and their mother was considering running. But since then, the 800-pound-fuckin’ gorilla Rahm Emanuel has jumped in, and is taking up most of the oxygen in the room.

Many people have declared that they’re not running now, but notably:

So who’s actually in?

  • RAAAAHM.

  • IL-07 Rep. Danny Davis

  • City Clerk Miguel Del Valle

  • State Senator James Meeks

  • Daley appointee-turned-critic Gery Chico

  • Cook County Board of Review member Larry Rogers

  • Former US Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, and possibly:

  • Soon-to-be former US Senator Roland Burris

As the Trib suggests, this compressed timeframe might make it hard for any of the candidates to build a true ward-by-ward organization – and candidates may be relying on the aldermanic machines to turn out some votes. Plenty of endorsements have flown around…and can probably be shown visually (we’ll keep this updated as more endorsements roll out). Green for Emanuel, yellow for Chico, red for Del Valle, blue for Davis.