Tag: Virginia Redistricting

• IN-Sen: An unnamed “Democratic strategist” quoted by The Hill suggests that ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (whose name hadn’t really come up before this year) is unlikely to run for Senate. Honestly, I’m not sure if the wankerish Roemer would really excite anyone… but we don’t seem to have a long list of possible names for this race.

• OH-Sen: PPP has another “everyone and the kitchen sink” primary polls, this time of the Republican senatorial primary in Ohio. In this case, the kitchen sink is named “Kenneth Blackwell,” and he comes in first in an eleventy-billion-way test, with all of 17%. I don’t think I’ve even heard Blackwell (last seen losing the 2006 gubernatorial race to Ted Strickland very badly) as a possible contender. Click the link for the other numbers.

• VA-Sen: I’ve got a new name you can root for: Tim Donner, a wealthy television production executive who is considering whether to challenge George Allen in the Republican primary. A spokesman tells Dave Catanese he’s a “couple weeks away” from making a decision. It’s not 100% clear whether he’s a teabagger, but I suspect he is, given that his mouthpiece attacked bona fide teabagger (and hopeless Some Dude) Jamie Radtke for “working in government since she graduated from college,” and because Donner thinks none of the candidates currently running “believe in the concept of a citizen legislature.” That sounds like something a teabagger trying to channel Patrick Henry might say, no? At the very least, we should be hoping he’ll rough Macaca up with a million or few.

• WV-Gov: This was expected, but it’s still an important get: State House Speaker Rick Thompson (D) scored the backing of the AFL-CIO, a key endorsement in what will likely be a low-turnout special primary. (As we noted last week, Thompson also picked up the support of a couple of teachers unions.) The election is May 14th.

• CA-36: Marta Evry at Calitics takes a look at the ActBlue fundraising numbers so far for the key Democrats in the race. The numbers are a moving target, but as of Friday, Janice Hahn had taken in $49K from 200 donors, while Debra Bowen had pulled in $41K but from a much larger 474 donors. Oh, and Marcy Winograd has now achieved joke status, with $1K raised. Also, some teabagger also joined the race, making him the fourth Republican to get in.

• Wisconsin Recall: Some very good sleuthing by Madison TV station WKOW27: The alleged mistress of GOP state Sen. Randy Hopper (the name you can’t forget) recently scored a government job, and Hopper said: “I want to keep my involvement of anything as a private matter. So, I’m going to maintain that.” He didn’t maintain that for very long, calling the station back and denying his involvement with the hiring. I’m not sure Jack McCoy ever got a witness to change his story so quickly – and incredibly. Even better, discovers WKOW, the woman in question got a 35% pay boost over the person who previously held the job. Scott Walker’s government austerity in action.

In other news, Greg Sargent says that GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies is in the field with a survey testing anti-union messages on recall target Alberta Darling’s behalf.

• DCCC: Biden alert! The VPOTUS was in Philadelphia on Friday, raising a cool $400K for the D-Triple-C. A long list of PA pols was in attendance, including ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy and a couple of unsuccessful 2010 candidates, Bryan Lentz and John Callahan. Also nice to see present: Arlen Specter, a guy whose age, brief tenure as an elected Dem, and inglorious exit from office would give him more than enough reason to stay away from this sort of thing forever. Too bad he didn’t have the sense to join our team decades ago!

• Redistricting Roundup:

With the bulk of census data out, redistricting stories are coming fast and furious now.

• Arkansas: Talk Business has copies of a few different congressional maps proposed by various lawmakers, as well as descriptions of some others. Click the link to have a look.

• California: Ugh, gross: One of two finalist consulting firms to help California’s new redistricting commission has hardcore Republican leanings, while two of four finalist law firms are similarly oriented. Of course, this is exactly what you risk when you leave things to a supposedly independent panel (that features a ridiculous level of Republican over-representation).

• Florida: One Democratic consultant thinks that Florida’s population growth suggests that new districts (the state is getting two) could be anchored to regions that would favor two Republicans in particular: ex-LG Jeff Kottkamp and state Sen. Paula Dockery. Kottkamp lost the GOP primary for AG last year, while Dockery dropped out of the gubernatorial primary.

• Iowa: The Hawkeye State’s independent redistricting commission will release its first proposes congressional and state maps on March 31st. (Remember, IA loses a House seat.) As the Des Moines Register points out, “Either chamber of the Iowa Legislature or Republican Gov. Terry Branstad can reject proposals twice. If they don’t like the third, the Iowa Supreme Court decides the boundaries.”

• Louisiana: A bunch more proposed maps have been released by the state lege. Republican state House Speaker Jim Tucker’s plans can be found here, while Democratic state Senate President Joel Chaisson’s are toward the end of this document.

• Missouri: Show Me State lawmakers are starting their work on redistricting, but if they don’t have a congressional plan by May 13th, then it’ll get kicked over to the courts. State legislative maps aren’t due until September.

• Mississippi: I’m not really sure I’m getting this: The NAACP is suing the state of Mississippi over its redistricting plans, but the legislature hasn’t even passed anything yet. It seems like this case would fail from the get-go on ripeness grounds (i.e., a court would say that the dispute isn’t ready to be heard because the plaintiff doesn’t have actual maps to complain about), so I’m not really sure what the NAACP’s angle is here.

• Pennsylvania: PoliticsPA talked to some insiders who are crediting Dave Wasserman’s sources and saying that his most recent map is apparently pretty close to the plan that the state’s Republicans are supposedly reaching consensus on. (Maybe both share the same sources, though – who knows?) Click through for all the details. The most salient feature is something a lot of people here have also proposed: a matchup between Jason Altmire and Mark Critz, the two most junior Democrats in the delegation, in order to deal with PA’s loss of a seat.

• Virginia: Lawmakers are potentially looking to release state legislative maps as early as the end of the month – which makes sense, since VA holds its House and Senate elections this November.

We received three entries (so far) in our mini redistricting challenge for VA: from sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. But now Dave Wasserman’s gone and added a new wrinkle: He says that the DOJ might force Virginia to junk its likely compromise map and proceed with two separate VRA seats. What kind of map can you come up with that creates two majority-minority districts in the Old Dominion?

UPDATE: SaoMagnifico has a map in the first thread taking another crack at the “compromise” plan.

(I’m bumping this one up. Not a single map as yet? Come on, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)

So Politico has some details about an incumbent protection map that’s supposedly been agreed to in Virginia:

Members of Virginia’s House delegation unanimously agreed to a redistricting plan that will protect all of their seats and strengthen the three GOP freshmen who ousted Democratic incumbents last November, POLITICO has learned.

The new map, according to multiple sources in both parties who are familiar with the plan, was crafted in the past month chiefly by Virginia’s eight GOP members. But it has received crucial private support from the state’s three House Democrats – notably Rep. Gerry Connolly, who barely survived reelection last November and whose Capitol Beltway-area district would get a Democratic bump.

The delegation is hoping for legislative approval in three weeks when the politically divided General Assembly convenes a special session.

So here’s the contest: Though the details are sketchy, draw what you think this map might look like using Dave’s Redistricting App. Make sure to read the entire Politico piece – most of the details are on the second page. Dave Wasserman has some ideas (here and here), but what are yours?

UPDATE: Looks like we have three entries so far: sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. Whaddya think?

Many other people have posted their virginia maps, so here is mine. With split control of the state legislature, this is an incumbent protection map that locks in the 8R-3D split in the state delegation.

Northern Virginia



VA-08 (Purple)

This remains the most Democratic district in NoVA, and a safe district for Moran. It loses the areas south of Alexandria to the 11th, but picks up McLean, Herndon, and Sterling from the 10th. These areas were the most democratic parts of the 10th, so doing this shores up that district for the Republicans.

VA-11 (Bright Green)

(*full disclosure: I worked as a paid canvasser for the Connolly campaign in 2010, but that hasn’t biased the way I’ve drawn this map. Really. I no longer have any ties to Gerry Connolly or his campaign*)

This once-swing district has now become solidly Democratic, almost as much as the 8th to the north. Gerry Connolly is now safe, one of the few improvements for democrats under this map. It picks up the areas south of Alexandria from the 8th, loses western Prince William (the most Republican part of the district) to the 1st, and loses the most Republican parts of Fairfax County in Oakton, Burke, and West Springfield to the 10th. It now stands as an amalgamation of heavily Democratic Dale City, Woodbridge, and Occoquan in Prince William with the most democratic areas of Fairfax county south of Route 7 (roughly). Also interesting is that Keith Fimian’s home in Oakton is now in VA-10, so if he wants to run for congress again maybe he can try to teabag Frank Wolf.

VA-10 (Magenta)



This was the fastest growing district in Virginia by far, needing to shrink by about 110,000 people in it’s previous incarnation. Previously a slightly GOP-leaning swing district that voted for Obama in 08. Republican Frank Wolf has the district completely locked down due in large part to his ability to secure federal earmarks for projects like the Silver Line DC Metro extension in this area. But after Wolf retires, this district would have been extremely competitive and a fiscally moderate, socially liberal dem might even have been slightly favored here. This redistricting aims to prevent that. The district cedes areas like McLean and Herndon in Fairfax Co that leaned to the Dems to the 8th. It now only has tentacles that reach into Fairfax and eat up basically all the Republican precincts there in areas like Great Falls, Burke, and Oakton. It also gives up the slightly D-leaning swing region of Manassas to the 1st district, and picks up some Appalachian counties from the 6th. I  still haven’t made this district totally republican, as that is almost impossible. It is competitive in the case of a Wolf retirement, but definitely less than before and the Republican running to succeed wolf would have an advantage. And in 6 or 8 years it’s easy to see this district returning to swing status, as the population growth in Loudon County is making it more and more democratic.

Eastern/Central VA



VA-01 (Blue)

This district was Republican leaning in its previous incarnation, however the fact that it is growing more democratic as the population shifts from the shrinking southern areas around Hampton Roads and Williamsburg to the DC exurbs makes it possible that when Wittman retires the old incarnation of this district could go dem. The new incarnation is not that much more Republican, if at all, owing to the need to shore up the 2nd and the 10th. It loses Fredricksburg, previously one of the most democratic parts of the district, to Eric Cantor’s 7th district. It gains the Manassas area from the 10th, and some of western Prince William from the 11th. The 2nd took up some extremely red areas in the Poqouson and York County areas. Overall the shift is maybe a point or two in the GOP’s favor.

VA-02 (Dark Green)



This district was about two points more Democratic than the 1st to the north, allowing Glenn Nye to win in 08. Republicans will want to prevent that from ever happening again, and this map accomplishes that. This district has taken on the City of Poqouson and much of York County, which it needed due to population loss in the Hampton Roads area. These new areas voted 75% for McCain and 80% (!!) for McDonnell. So this definitely means Scott Rigell has a safe seat barring some kind of total implosion.

VA-03 (Dark Purple)

Very little change here. Still safe blue. Due to population loss had to take on the heavily democratic area of Mechanicsville outside of Richmond.

VA-04 (Red)



Very little change here, too. Had to shrink a tiny bit due to population growth, so I gave the town of Emporia to the 5th which needed more population due to the total facelift I gave it plus the fact that the entire SW area of virginia had been losing population. Still a solid red district.

VA-07 (Grey)



This district has gotten a lot more compact now, but it has stayed solidly republican. The area that previously stretched north into the rural areas has been taken out and given to the 5th district. In exchange, the district has gained Fredricksburg from the 1st. And, as previously mentioned, the heavily blue area of Mechanicsville has been given to the 3rd. Overall, the district hasn’t really changed much in terms of partisanship, but it looks much better, IMO.

Western Virginia

VA-06 (Teal)



This solidly republican district has shed a bit of it’s redness in the interest of helping shore up Hurt in VA-05. It has taken on the liberal Charlottesville area and ceded the Lynchburg area. This district has probably become significantly more democratic, although it is still very republican. Goodlatte won by 62% in 2008 and had no major-party opponent in 2010, so he should be safe, but a blue dog might be able to win this seat under open-seat conditions in a good year for dems. Tom Perriello would have a good chance at this seat if it were open, although I personally hope he is senator/governor by then.

VA-05 (Yellow)



This is probably the most changed district in this map. It has lost Charlottesville, previously the most liberal area of the district and home of its soon-to-be-former congressman Tom Perriello. In exchange, it has gained the northernmost part of the 7th, the tiny town of emporia from the 4th, and the city of lynchburg from the 6th. This gave it a little too much population, so I gave some of the westernmost part of the district to VA-09 to compensate for the 9th’s population loss. I may have gone overkill on this district. It was previously a republican leaning district, now it is an extremely safe district that even a blue dog in an open seat in a democratic wave year would have a lot of trouble winning.

VA-09 (Cyan)



Not much has changed here. This was a safe republican district before, and Rick Boucher held out largely due to his personal popularity, so Morgan Griffith doesn’t need much shoring up. The district has been losing population faster than any other district in VA, so it had to take on some areas from the 5th, but these don’t change the basic shape or the partisanship of the district at all.

This map should hold it’s 8-3 partisan composition for the forseeable future. The only thing that could change that is a Frank Wolf retirement, but the 10th is designed pretty much as best as possible to hold in that case. With Loudon county trending Democratic, though, this district should be a top democratic target in 6-8 years. This map has delayed the 10th’s transition to a Democratic target by a few years at least, though.

Some people (including myself) have raised the possibility that Republicans could simply do a mid-decade redistricting once they pick up the state senate in next year’s elections (which I and many other people on here believe is more than likely than not). However, what doing this map has taught me is that it is pretty close to impossible for Republicans to get a better than 8-3 split in congress. The only way for them to do better is to weaken the 10th significantly (and make the 11th more Republican leaning). Wolf could probably hold on in this kind of scenario, but in my view that would make it far too easy for the Democrats to pick up this area once Wolf retires (he is 71 so that may not be long). If they weaken the 10th too much, the Dems could even maybe knock off Wolf in a few years. So there’s not much potential benefit to the Republicans in a mid decade redistricting. An 8-3 split (that could become 7-4 at worst) is pretty damn good for them in a very purple state like VA.