Tag: OH-03

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted from DKos)

As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio’s filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.

Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.

Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.

First of all, the list. I scoured official and media resources Saturday morning, so there may be some mistakes. Clean them up in the comments, if you find one…

OH 01 (DEM): Steve Driehaus

OH 01 (GOP): Rep. Steve Chabot

OH 02 (DEM): Steve Black, Victoria Wulsin, William Smith

OH 02 (GOP): Rep. Jean Schmidt, Tom Brinkman, Phil Heimlich, Nathan Bailey

OH 03 (DEM): David Esrati, Jane Mitakides, Charles W. Sanders

OH 03 (GOP): Rep. Mike Turner

OH 04 (DEM): Mike Carroll

OH 04 (GOP): Rep. Jim Jordan

OH 05 (DEM): George Mays

OH 05 (GOP): Rep. Bob Latta, Scott Radcliffe, Michael Reynolds

OH 06 (DEM): Rep. Charlie Wilson

OH 06 (GOP): A Republican candidate filed, could not find a name.

OH 07 (DEM): Bill Conner, Sharen Neuhardt, Jack Null, Thomas Scrivens, David Woolever, Richard Wyderski

OH 07 (GOP): Steve Austria, Dan Harkins, Ron Hood, John Mitchel

OH 08 (DEM): Mort Meier, Nicholas Vonstein

OH 08 (GOP): Rep. John Boehner

OH 09 (DEM): Rep. Marcy Kaptur

OH 09 (GOP): Bradley Leavitt

OH 10 (DEM): Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Cimperman, Thomas O’Grady, Rosemary Palmer, Barbara Ferris

OH 10 (GOP): Jim Trakas, Jason Werner

OH 11 (DEM): Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones

OH 11 (GOP): Thomas Pekarek, Bob Saffold

OH 12 (DEM): Aaron Dagres, Marc Fagin, Russ Goodwin, David Robinson

OH 12 (GOP): Rep. Pat Tiberi, David Ryon

OH 13 (DEM): Rep. Betty Sutton

OH 13 (GOP): Frank Chestney, Frances Kalapodis, David Potter

OH 14 (DEM): Bill O’Neill, Dale Blanchard, John Greene

OH 14 (GOP): Rep. Steve LaTourette

OH 15 (DEM): Mary Jo Kilroy

OH 15 (GOP): Ralph Applegate, Charles Chope, John Diamond, Steve Stivers, Robert Wagner

OH 16 (DEM): John Boccieri, Mary Cirelli

OH 16 (GOP): Matt Miller, Paul Schiffer, Kirk Schuring

OH 17 (DEM): Rep. Tim Ryan

OH 17 (GOP): Duane Grassell

OH 18 (DEM): Rep. Zack Space, Mark Pitrone

OH 18 (GOP): Beau Bromberg, Fred Dailey, Jeannette Moll, Paul Phillips

Now, here is my analysis of the PRIMARY ELECTIONS:

OH-02: This might be the most intriguing primary of them all on March 4th. The Democratic side of the equation might be more competitive than you think, as Steve Black has already raised well into six figures in his attempt to deny Vic Wulsin a second shot at the brass ring. Wulsin has never stopped running from her solid 2006 run, which saw her come within two points of the incumbent.

The incumbent might have been saved by seeing (yet again!) two legitimate Republicans file against her. Both Brinkman and Heimlich have records as elected officials, and both will bring resources to the table. Watch Schmidt escape again with a 35-30-30-5 win.

OH-07: What was thought to be a coronation for state Senator Steve Austria has grown more complicated as time has gone on. Late in the game, former state Representative Ron Hood decided to make the show. Both Harkins and Mitchel have the threat of being serious candidates. Austria is still the bettors’ favorite, and looks good for the general as well.

OH-10: Time will tell if Dennis Kucinich’s vanity run for President will cost him back home. Like Schmidt, he probably benefits from the fact that there is a multi-candidate field in front of him. Cimperman is a city councilman in Cleveland, O’Grady is the mayor of North Olmstead, Palmer has generated some attention, and Ferris has run before (only getting 24% of the vote in 2006). Republicans probably are running one of their strongest candidates in former state rep. Jim Trakas, but this is a district where Kucinich’s closest race (in 2004) held him to a mere 60%.

OH-16: At the last second, Democratic plans to have an uncomplicated run here were foiled when a longtime city official (Mary Cirelli) got into the race against party-anointed state senator John Boccieri. It is questionable whether the sixty-something Cirelli will present a serious threat to Boccieri, who has the blessing of many county party officials, as well as a formidable war chest. On the GOP side, it is a free-for-all between Matt Miller (who ran tough against the retiring Ralph Regula in 2006), state senator Kirk Schuring, and right-wing talk radio host Paul Schiffer.

THE GENERAL ELECTION IN OHIO:

There are several seats to watch in Ohio. The good news: they are pretty much entirely in Republican hands.

Of the three Democratic freshmen in Ohio, only Zack Space is facing opposition that anyone would take seriously. Even in this race (OH-18), no one sees this as a toss-up. Space wiping the floor with Joy Padgett probably scared off higher-caliber competition. Meanwhile, both Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Betty Sutton (OH-13) face nominal opposition.

Meanwhile, there are first-tier GOP targets all over the map. Principal among these are the pair of open seats in central Ohio: the Columbus-based 15th district and the Canton-based 16th district. Both are swing districts (the 15th a bit more favorable to Dems). Mary Jo Kilroy, after nearly disposing of Deb Pryce in 2006, did not draw a primary challenger. Now she lies in wait, presumably to face GOP recruit Steve Stivers, a state senator who got in after initially demurring from a challenge. Over in the 16th district, Boccieri is the best candidate the Dems could have hoped for, and he will likely benefit from a brutal GOP primary. Expect Schuring to emerge from it. Also expect at least one of these seats to go Democratic in November.

There are also a number of GOP incumbents being looked at. The Cincy metro area sees the two most prized targets in third-term Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) and class of 1994 Rep. Steve Chabot (OH-01). Democrats think that they might have finally found the right candidate for Chabot in the person of state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Of course, they thought that when Roxanne Qualls ran in 1998, and they also thought that when Cranley ran here in 2006. Jean Schmidt, meanwhile, must first survive the GOP primary. If she does (and she is the betting favorite), she will square off most likely in a 2006 rematch with Vic Wulsin. It was one of the closest races in America in 2006, and would promise to be so again, especially since the DCCC is unlikely to be a late arrival in the race this time around.

Other possible races to watch: Judge Bill O’Neill making a run at another Class of 1994 incumbent, Republican Steve LaTourette (OH-14). Democrat Jane Mitakides, who ran a well-funded race in the Dayton-based 3rd district, will take another swing at Republican Rep. Mike Turner. In the Columbus-based 12th district, Pat Tiberi will never be able to rest TOO easy, but he will be a favorite over the Democrats.

The plethora of opportunities for House Democratic challengers in Ohio next year is a topic that both CQ Politics and MyDD’s Jon Singer looked at recently. Between both sources, we can identify no fewer than seven potential offensive targets for Democrats this cycle. The following chart lists each possible targeted district by its PVI, the incumbent’s margin of victory in 2006, and the Kerry/Bush and Gore/Bush margins in 2004 and 2000, respectively:

CD	Incumbent	PVI	’06 Margin	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
OH-01	Chabot	R+0.5	4	49	51	46	51
OH-02	Schmidt	R+13.1	1	36	64	34	63
OH-03	Turner	R+2.9	17	46	54	45	52
OH-12	Tiberi	R+0.7	15	49	51	46	52
OH-14	LaTourette	R+2.2	18	47	53	44	52
OH-15	Pryce	R+1.1	<1	50	50	44	52
OH-16	Regula	R+3.6	17	46	54	42	53

With the exception of the 3rd, these districts have been trending more Democratic on the Presidential level since 2000. Despite shrewd gerrymandering by Ohio Republicans, with the right challengers, each of these seats could come into play.

• OH-01: The DCCC thinks it has their man to finish what John Cranley started in his challenge to Republican Steve Chabot in 2006. State Rep. and Minority Whip Steve Driehaus, “a Democrat with a history of winning over Republican voters”, has thrown his hat in the ring. On the one hand, Driehaus has a suburban political base that can help wear down Chabot in his strongest territories. On the other hand, Driehaus may lack the broader name recognition of Cranley, who was an at-large councilor in Cincinnati. On balance, though, Driehaus’ resume looks good, and he should prove to be another credible challenger.
• OH-02: No doubt about it; Jean Schmidt is a political time bomb set to go off every six months or so with another bizarre comment about bringing nuclear waste into her district or deriding the outrage over the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown” criticism. Jean Schmidt could very well be the worst politician of the decade, which is the only reason why Team Blue has a shot at winning this R+13 district. 2006 candidate Vic Wulsin is game for a rematch, and while it doesn’t seem to take much to incite Schmidt into inflicting another wound on herself, the Democratic nominee in this district will have to deal with running against the Presidential headwind of a solidly Republican district. A tough challenge, to be sure, but Schmidt is destined to underperform, especially if she gets another primary challenge.
• OH-03: This Dayton-based district was represented by Democrat Tony P. Hall from 1978-2002, but has since been occupied by Republican Mike Turner. Whatever hope Democrats had in sparking an upset last year unfortunately went down in flames after the Democratic nominee, Stephanie Studebaker, was arrested in a domestic dispute just three months before election day. Prosecutor Dick Chema was the last-minute replacement, and perhaps unsurprisingly fell short by roughly 17 points. Given that this district’s Republican lean is less than heavy, a well-organized challenger with a good profile could perhaps do to Turner what Democrat Jason Altmire did to “rising star” Republican Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania last year, who held a similarly Republican-leaning seat with a long history of voting for Congressional Democrats.
• OH-12: Republican Pat Tiberi convincingly repelled Swing State Project hero and near-octogenarian Bob Shamansky by a 15-point margin last November, but he did have to empty his $3 million war chest to do it. Tiberi shouldn’t be able to escape 2008 with a free pass, especially in a trending Democratic district like this one.
• OH-14: Democrats have an eager challenger to Republican Steve LaTourette: William O’Neill, a judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals in Ohio. O’Neill’s recent claim to fame was winning 41% of the vote for the Ohio Supreme Court on a $1 budget in 2006, in principled opposition to the mixing of campaign contributions and judicial service. However, O’Neill claims he won’t be nearly as stingy in his campaign against LaTourette. He intends to raise $1 million for the race, and will resign from the bench on June 15th and has already been in contact with the DCCC, according to comments attributed to him on the Buckeye State Blog. LaTourette, despite some family values hypocrisy and a district trending more Democratic on the Presidential level, has yet to face a top-shelf challenge this decade (no, Capri Cafaro doesn’t count). If Judge O’Neill can bring the noize, this might be another unexpected defense for Republicans next year.
• OH-15: After watching the disappointments of Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell in their four-year campaigns last cycle, I’ve become rather skeptical of the viability of most House rematches, barring special circumstances like scandal (e.g. Pombo/McNerney), and major strategic reorientation (e.g. Hodes/Bass, Boyda/Ryun). But Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy ran a strong challenge against Deborah Pryce last year, which is why I’m somewhat ambivalent about the brewing primary battle between her and fellow Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. Pryce could be on unstable ground in 2008, but we’ll need to sort out our side of the fence first.
• OH-16: At age 82, Republican Ralph Regula is ripe for retirement. But even if this seat doesn’t open up, Democrats plan on making an aggressive challenge after the no-profile, no-money Democrat Thomas Shaw scored a surprising 41.6% against the 34-year incumbent. According to the Buckeye State Blog, State Senator John Boccieri, an officer in the Air Force Reserve and a veteran of four tours in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, is strongly considering a bid for this seat. With a strong electoral track record and an excellent profile, Boccieri could prove to be a top-tier Democratic recruitment in the next cycle.

Seven districts, seven pressure points. Democrats probably won’t win all of them, or even many of them, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be wise to push on all of these targets hard to keep Congressional Republicans focused on putting out as many brushfires as possible.

Race Tracker: Ohio

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.