Tag: IL-11

After being nailed by the Chicago Tribune over his suspicious Latin American investments, it looks like Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL) might not be running for re-election. According to the Daily Southtown, Weller is certainly sending those signals:

Rumors are circulating that Weller may decide against another term, particularly in light of the bad press he is receiving over his Guatemalan financial interests. Phone calls, I'm told, have been made to his top donors indicating he may be preparing to “hang it up.” His family, after all, lives in Guatemala. That's a long commute.

[…] 

He has not returned phone calls to the media, no matter the topic, for weeks. 

In addtion, The Capitol Fax reports that Weller hasn't started circulating the nominating petitions required for his name to appear on the ballot. 

So who'll step in to fill the void if Weller opts out? Although he's also taken up the habit of not returning phone calls from the media, it's rumored that Joliet bank president Jim Roolf is considering a run for the Republicans. And Emily's List is heavily recruiting state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D-Crete) to enter the race. It's pretty certain that this seat, with a PVI of R+1.1, will be competitive no matter what Weller decides.

(h/t to Faithfully Liberal) 

In a front-page exposé, the Chicago Tribune today delved into the questionable Latin American investments of Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL): 

In 2002 Weller made his first official congressional trip to Nicaragua. Before the year was over, he had bought his first lot and eventually began looking for land he could subdivide into parcels that would attract buyers looking for prime ocean-view property at a relatively low price. It is an unusual investment for a member of Congress, and Weller's foreign land holdings seem far more extensive than any other House member's.

His investment got a boost from the narrowly passed Central America Free Trade Agreement, which Weller pitched in 2005 as a tool to enable businesses in his hard-pressed district to sell tractors and food to Latin America. CAFTA also includes additional legal protection for American investors, including those who have purchased lots from Weller.

What he didn't say was that, while he publicly pushed CAFTA, Weller privately was pursuing his land development, some 2,000 miles away. The House approved the trade pact in July 2005 by only two votes, 217-215.

Besides not mentioning his Nicaraguan investments during the CAFTA debate on the House floor, Weller did not give anywhere close to a complete accounting of them in his required 2005 financial disclosure statement. House ethics rules require representatives to disclose all property they own except for their personal residences.

Although Weller defeated his opponent last year by a healthy 10 points, the district has a PVI of only R+1.1. And while Kerry lost the district by 7 points, Gore came within 2. Weller's ethical troubles should definitely put this seat in play. 

UPDATE (James): And where is Weller to defend himself from the bullies at the Tribune?  The answer: in hiding.

When asked about the discrepancies, Weller’s office first insisted that questions be given to the congressman in writing. After a week passed with no response to the written questions, The Tribune requested to talk to Weller in person. On Thursday afternoon, Weller’s spokesman said he would not answer questions and had no comment.

The congressman missed all recorded House votes in Washington this week. His spokesman said he was out of the city, caring for his 1-year-old daughter.

Currently, the only prospective candidate against Weller is Jerry Weber, the president of Kankakee Community College.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if other local Democrats might be taking a closer look at this race given these recent developments.

(h/t to the Stakeholder and Prarie State Blue)

 

The 11^th District Democrats are pleased to invite you to:

 

 

 

Our first annual organizational dinner on Friday, August 17^th 7:30 PM at Aurelio’s on 310 W. Lincoln Highway in Frankfort, IL.

 

Please join us for food, drink, and a discussion of the state of Democratic politics in the 11^th District.

 

Only $20 to participate in this inaugural gathering.

 

Additional contributions welcome.

 

Expected attendees include 2006 11^th Congressional District candidate John Pavich and presumptive 2008 candidate Jerry Weber

 

 

 

            The 11^th District Democrats is an organization which has recently been created to further the cause of Democratic politics within our district.  Our goal is to help raise volunteers, money, and awareness to aid those running in local, state, and federal elections.   Also, we hope to facilitate coordination between local and county Democratic organizations.  Obviously, in order to build a permanent party infrastructure, we need individuals interested in our cause to actively participate in the process.   To this end, we would be pleased if you joined us at our dinner to learn more about the organization, as well as offer any ideas or suggestions.

 

 

 

Please pay either by cash or check at the event.  Make checks payable to the “11^th District Democrats”. 

 

If you are unable to attend, but still would like to join the organization, please send your contact information to Nikhil Bhatia via email or telephone.  Donations for those unable to attend can be mailed to 580 Butternut Trail, Frankfort, IL 60423.

 

PLEASE RSVP by August 10.

 

Email: nbhatia3@uiuc.edu

 

Telephone: (815) 557-3528.

 

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.