Virginia was really bad for democrats in 2010 (what state wasn’t?). The republicans picked up the 2nd, 5th, and 9th. As I am a democrat I usually make maps leaning that way so I decided to make a republican map. This is an 8-2-1 map and preserves the VRA district while weakening only Morgan Griffith and Cantor a bit. It’s not perfect but I think it pretty good. For those who don’t know, in the individual district pictures, light green is new district only, pink is old only, and the darkish green is areas in both.
District 1
Incumbent: Rob Wittman
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 176
Obama: 47.8%
McCain: 52.2%
Dem: 44.6%
GOP: 55.6%
White: 67.2 %
Black: 20.6 %
Hispanic: 6.3%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 45,520
Obama: 48.4%
McCain: 51.6%
Dem: 44.8%
GOP: 55.2%
White: 67.7 %
Black: 19.6 %
Hispanic: 6.8%
The 1st had to lose some population and so it moved a bit, but it is largely unchanged with the exception of taking up a little more of the suburbs in SE Virginia. Likely R
District 2:
Incumbent: Scot Rigell
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -26
Obama: 49.2%
McCain: 50.8%
Dem: 46.4%
GOP: 53.6%
White: 65.7%
Black: 20.4%
Hispanic: 6.0%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -70,482
Obama: 52.4%
McCain: 47.6%
Dem: 49.1%
GOP: 50.9%
White: 62.6%
Black: 21.7%
Hispanic: 6.9%
Nye was elected on the backs of two very poor republican congressmen. While he is young, attractive, and from Philadelphia (awww yeah), with this new district he would not have won in 08. Rigell’s biggest worry is the primary with his donations to Obama and all that jazz. This seat mainly took what district one gave up. Likely R
District 3:
Incumbent: Robert Scott
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -267
Obama: 82.2%
McCain: 17.8%
Dem: 76.9%
GOP: 23.1%
White: 28.9%
Black: 61.0%
Hispanic: 5.3%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -53,960
Obama: 75.7%
McCain: 24.3%
Dem: 28.7%
GOP: 71.3%
White: 36.2%
Black: 53.7%
Hispanic: 5.0%
Mr. Scott would probably be happy with this district as it gets more black and democratic. The district did have to pick up people, and it did this by snaking to as many areas of strength as possible. I have to say it is horrendous looking. The VRA mapping standards I have mixed feelings about… Yes they are good for protecting the rights of minorities. This though? Ugh. Safe D
District 4:
Incumbent: Randy Forbes
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -255
Obama: 48.8%
McCain: 51.2%
Dem: 46.4%
GOP: 53.6%
White: 61.7%
Black: 28%
Hispanic: 5.3%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target:
Obama: 51.0%
McCain: 49.0%
Dem: 48.2%
GOP: 51.8%
White: 57.8%
Black: 33.2%
Hispanic: 4.5%
Randy Forbes is unfortunately a skilled politician. While he wins in a current Obama district easily, I don’t think anyone in the GOP would mind his district getting a bit safer. The only serious challenge he had was his first against Louise Lucas in the 2001 special election. Likely R.
District 5:
Incumbent: Robert Hurt
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 122
Obama: 43.3%
McCain: 56.7%
Dem: 42.7%
GOP: 57.3%
White: 75.1%
Black: 19.5%
Hispanic: 2.7%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -39,711
Obama: 48.5%
McCain: 51.5%
Dem: 47.3%
GOP: 52.7%
White: 71.7%
Black: 21.9%
Hispanic: 3.1%
5 is the most important district. Perriello is not in this district, and half of his base in Charlottesville is gone. Included, however is Rick Boucher. Neither Boucher or Perriello has much to run, as they both have a lot of new constitutions AND the district is 5 points more republican than it was before. Safe R unless Perriello or Boucher run, than Likely R.
District 6:
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -43
Obama: 43.9%
McCain: 56.1%
Dem: 42.8%
GOP: 57.2%
White: 81.5%
Black: 10.9%
Hispanic: 4.2%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -23,285
Obama: 43.2%
McCain: 56.8%
Dem: 42.1%
GOP: 57.9%
White: 81.2%
Black: 11.1%
Hispanic: 4.3%
This close save district remains close to safe. Little changes, mostly just to fill in where other districts no longer are because it was lacking population. Likely R.
District 7:
Incumbent: Eric Cantor
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -601
Obama: 48.1%
McCain: 51.9%
Dem: 43.4%
GOP: 56.6%
White: 68.9%
Black: 14.5%
Hispanic: 8.6%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 25,081
Obama: 46.6%
McCain: 53.4%
Dem: 43.3%
GOP: 56.7%
White: 72.3%
Black: 16.7%
Hispanic: 4.8%
Snaking into Prince William to shore in place of 1 and 11, the partisan numbers actually don’t change all that much as the district loses parts of Richmond. I kept in the most conservative precincts because I figure that’s where Cantor lives. Cantor should be fine. Likely R
District 8:
Incumbent: Jim Moran
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 531
Obama: 68.2%
McCain: 31.8%
Dem: 67.7%
GOP: 33.3%
White: 53.9%
Black: 13.2%
Hispanic: 18.4%
Asian: 11.4%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -27,688
Obama: 68.2%
McCain: 31.8%
Dem: 67.7%
GOP: 33.3%
White: 54.4%
Black: 13.3%
Hispanic: 18.4%
Asian: 10.7%
Almost unchanged, just look at demographics. Safe D
District 9:
Incumbent: Morgan Griffiths
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -196
Obama: 43.4%
McCain: 56.6%
Dem: 45.7%
GOP: 54.3%
White: 88.8%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: -72,764
Obama: 40.3%
McCain: 59.7%
Dem: 43.7%
GOP: 56.3%
White: 92%
The district had to gain people and Griffith’s home of Salem. The district got more democratic by taking in parts of Charlottesville and some of its suburbs to weaken cut Periello’s base in two. Periello resides in this district but might still choose to run in the 5th. Likely R, will move to Safe fairly soon as Griffith’s gains name recognition throughout the district.
District 10:
Incumbent: Frank Wolf
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: -98
Obama: 49.4%
McCain: 50.6%
Dem: 48.1%
GOP: 51.9%
White: 66.9%
Hispanic: 10.7%
Asian: 13.5%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 144,282
Obama: 50.2%
McCain: 49.8%
Dem: 47.2%
GOP: 52.8%
White: 63.8%
Hispanic: 13.5%
Asian: 12.4%
Wolf has won for 30 years straight, usually with ease. His district is now a McCain district but it only moved by about .8%. Lean/Likely R
District 11:
Incumbent: Gerry Connolly
New Stats:
Deviation from Target: 645
Obama: 55.6%
McCain: 44.4%
Dem: 50.5%
GOP: 49.5%
White: 54.4%
Black: 10.2%
Hispanic: 16.9%
Asian: 14.9%
Old Stats:
Deviation from Target: 62,964
Obama: 56.6%
McCain: 43.4%
Dem: 52.3%
GOP: 47.7%
White: 55.0%
Black: 11.1%
Hispanic: 15.4%
Asian: 14.9%
This district becomes more swingy by taking away some liberal territory like Dale City and giving to Eric Cantor. Leans slightly D but I’d call it a toss-up. Connolly would have lost in 2010 with this district.