SSP Daily Digest: 3/13

CT-Sen: The new lovefest between Joe Lieberman and the Democratic Party seems to be reaching the point where they need to get a room. In the wake of yesterday’s endorsement of Chris Dodd, Lieberman is today floating the idea of running in 2012 in the Democratic primary, instead of just as an independent. (Of course, unless Connecticut passes a sore loser law in the next few years, what’s the downside? If he loses the Dem primary again, he can just switch back to CfL one more time.)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The GOP is running out of options for a good challenger to Harry Reid. Former state senator Joe Heck (who lost his Las Vegas-area seat last year) has decided to run in the GOP primary against chronically embattled governor Jim Gibbons instead. (Although if Heck is going against Gibbons, what is Rep. Dean Heller planning to do then?) With ex-Rep. Jon Porter taking the K Street route and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki under indictment, the GOP’s Nevada bench is nearly empty.

PA-Sen: Joe Torsella won’t have the Democratic primary in the Pennsylvania senate race to himself. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, a 35-year-old reform-minded legislator from the Philadelphia suburbs, is now exploring the race. This may be a tea leaf that Rep. Allyson Schwartz isn’t getting in the primary, as Shapiro (who’s in PA-13) would likely run for Schwartz’s seat instead if it were going to be open.

CA-32: EMILY’s List has weighed in in the CA-32 primary, and they’re endorsing… believe it or not… the woman in the race: Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu. Chu’s main competition is state senator Gil Cedillo, who comes in with the endorsement of nearby House members like Xavier Becerra, Linda Sanchez, and Grace Napolitano (Hilda Solis, who used to occupy CA-32, hasn’t endorsed). The district is about 65% Hispanic and 20% Asian.

NH-01, NH-02: We’re looking at a crowded field for Republican opponents to Carol Shea-Porter: John Stephen, who barely lost the primary last time to ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, is eyeing the race, as is Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Businessman Jim Wieczorek also plans to run. Meanwhile, next door in the open NH-02, radio host Jennifer Horn says there’s a good chance she’ll run again in 2010.  

FL-22: State house majority leader Adam Hasner has been launching a series of attacks on Rep. Ron Klein over EFCA… is this a preview of the 2010 race? (It’s a Dem-leaning district, but Klein’s 2008 victory margin wasn’t impressive.)

Votes: Also on the EFCA front, Campaign Diaries has an impressively thorough chart head-counting the positions staked out by all the Democratic senators (and potential GOP votes).

Blue Dogs: After lifting their self-imposed 20%-of-the-Dem-caucus cap to expand to 51 members, the Blue Dogs are talking about growing again, to 56 members. No word on who that might be (although the door’s apparently open to Scott Murphy if he wins).

NRSC: Roll Call is running a story today with the banner headline “McConnell Criticizes GOP for Lack of Diversity.” What’s next? “Sanders Criticizes KFC for Serving Chicken?”

SSP Daily Digest: 3/12

NJ-Gov: Another day, another ugly poll for Jon Corzine. This time, it’s this month’s installment of the Quinnipiac poll. Not much change from last month: Chris Christie leads Corzine 46-37, up a bit from 44-38. This despite 61% of voters not knowing enough about Christie to form an opinion of him!

KY-Sen: Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson may be the guy on the GOP’s wish list for the Kentucky Senate seat, but he said yesterday that he’s running for Senate only if Jim Bunning retires. (What are the odds on that?) Meanwhile, state senate president David Williams is accusing Grayson and Bunning of being in cahoots to shut him out of the race. Good times.

CT-Sen: You gotta love Joe Lieberman, always there to lend a helping hand. Lieberman announced that he’s supporting Chris Dodd for re-election, even though Dodd supported, y’know, the Democrat in the 2006 general. As Lanny Davis puts it, “Being a mensch and a friend is more important than carrying a grudge.”

CO-04: Nice to see that someone can get a job in this economy: Marilyn Musgrave has emerged from months of post-defeat seclusion to take a leadership position with something called the Susan B. Anthony List, apparently a bizarro-world EMILY’s List that supports anti-abortion female candidates for office. (No word on whether Anthony plans to sue to get her name back.) It’s unclear whether this is permanent or Musgrave is staying close to donors until a rematch in CO-04.

KS-01, KS-04: Mike Huckabee (who overwhelmingly won the Kansas caucuses) is wading into the primaries to fill the two safe GOP seats left vacant by the Jerry Moran/Todd Tiahrt scrum for the open senate seat. He’s endorsing state senator Tim Huelskamp in KS-01 and state senator Dick Kelsey in KS-04. RNC member Mike Pompeo is also expected to run in KS-04, while ex-aide to Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger and businessman Tim Barker are already running in KS-01.

Maps: Here’s a nice resource to bookmark, from Ruy Teixeira and the Center for American Progress: it’s a collection of interactive maps showing state-by-state 04-08 and 88-08 shifts, along with piles of 08 exit poll data.

MN-Sen: As if you needed one more reason not to donate to Republicans, the Norm Coleman campaign accidentally made public 4.3 GB of donors’ personal data, including credit card numbers and security information.

CT-Sen: Blumenthal Crushes Lieberman in Early Polling; Dodd Weakening

Check it. Quinnipiac (2/5-8, registered voters):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58

Joe Lieberman (I-Inc.): 30

(MoE: ±2.5%)

No need to adjust your TV sets — these are general election numbers, not some fantasy scenario where Lieberman tries to win the Democratic primary nomination again. Indeed, he would be foolish to even try, especially if state AG Dick Blumenthal gets into the race. Here’s an eye-popping number for you: among Democrats, Blumenthal steamrolls Lieberman by a devastating 83-9 margin! Of course, Lieberman has four years to try to repair his douche-stained reputation, and who knows if Blumenthal will really pull the trigger. However, with numbers like these, Blumenthal has every reason to finally throw down; this race may be his last real opportunity to wage a Senate campaign.

Meanwhile, Connecticut’s other Senator, Chris Dodd, continues his downward spiral:

A total of 42 percent of voters say they “definitely” or “probably” will vote to reelect Sen. Dodd in 2010, while 51 percent say the “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t” vote for him.

By a 54 – 24 percent margin, Connecticut voters say they are not satisfied with Sen. Dodd’s explanation of allegations that he received preferential mortgage treatment and 56 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for him because of this controversy.

And that’s not all: Dodd’s approval has entered net negative territory for the first time in recent Quinnipiac polling history, with 48% of voters disapproving of his job performance to 41% who still give Dodd their approval.

If John Cornyn is successful in luring Rob Simmons or even a cash-flush self-funder into this race, it’ll be a significant accomplishment for the NRSC. At the very least, attacking this pressure point will force Democrats to reallocate resources to a defensive position — and who knows, maybe lightning could strike.

CT-Sen: Whom Might Rell Appoint?

According to Cliff, the rumor mill has churned out none other than independent Senator Joe Lieberman as a possible Bush nominee to replace disgraced Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez.  However, if you’ve believed all the rumors, Lieberman should have been one or all of the following by now: Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Homeland Security, Ambassador to the United Nations, and George Bush’s running mate in 2004.

But for the sake of exploring every wild-eyed hypothetical, let’s assume that Lieberman answers Bush’s call and gets confirmed by the Senate as the next AG.  At present, Connecticut law states that, in the event of a Senate vacancy, the Governor gets to appoint a replacement.  If Lieberman were to leave, that would put the ball in Republican Gov. Jodi Rell’s court to name his successor.

So, whom might Rell appoint?  The Republican bench isn’t exactly burgeoning with obvious possibilities, seeing as how Rell and her Lieutenant, Michael Fedele, are the state’s only current GOP statewide office holders.  Looking to those with Congressional experience, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson is 72 years old, and appointing current Rep. Chris Shays would almost certainly cause his House seat to fall to the Democrats–an unattractive option for Rell.  If she doesn’t tap someone from the state legislature, there’s always Rob Simmons, who represented a district with a sharply Democratic PVI of D+7.6 from 2000 until his defeat last November.

Of course, Connecticut Democrats, who hold a veto-proof majority in the state legislature, could make this hypothetical moot by quickly ushering in legislation to strip the power to fill Senate vacancies from the Governor.  In such an event, Democrats are not short of potential recruits to bring a bit more sanity to Connecticut’s Senatorial delegation in a special election.  Which one would you like to see nominated?

ME-SEN: Tom Allen Wants To “Re-Defeat” Joe Lieberman

(Partially cross-posted from My Left Nutmeg.)

This is good stuff. Tom Allen is hanging Joe Lieberman around Susan Collins’ neck:

Joe knows exactly what he’s doing in supporting Collins: attempting to retain any shred of his own continued relevance by keeping the Democratic majority in the Senate as slim as possible in what is looking, once again, like a very tough cycle for GOP incumbents across the board.

And Allen knows exactly what he’s doing in tying Collins to Joe: making sure that this “moderate” Republican owns the Bush-Cheney-Lieberman war that she’s done nothing to oppose (see this NPR report on the Allen campaign this weekend), and that the Democratic Party stays strong and united against the Lieberman-GOP nexus. It’s exactly the approach that Maine Dems hinted at when they “welcomed” news of Joe’s endorsement of Collins back in April.

OR-SEN, NE-SEN, NC-03, MD-01: GOP Attempts “Purge” of All Four Dissenters on Iraq

(Cross-posted at MyDD.)

Back in April, in the face of massive public support for a clear timeline to end the war in Iraq, only two Republicans in the House and two in the Senate dared to buck the White House’s pressure tactics and vote for the Iraq Accountability Act. The four were Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD).

Coincidentally, all four are now facing potential primary challenges from the right.

In Nebraska, Sen. Hagel, the most noted opponent of Bush’s Iraq policy in his party, is facing a very real challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning (who even led Hagel in a recent primary poll):

“It’s pretty clear Nebraska voters understand Sen. Hagel is voting with the Democratic Party on the issue that they feel is most important at this time, which is the Iraq war, and that’s troubling to them”

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Sen. Smith is facing the current wrath and potential candidacy of anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore for his perceived lack of partisan loyalty:

“At the national level, Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of defeating Gordon Smith. After all he has done for liberals in Oregon, they still want to take him out, simply because he is a Republican. To them, a Republican in name only is still a Republican. Smith’s political vulnerability is no secret.”

Rep. Walter “Freedom Fries” Jones’ marked turn away from supporting Bush’s Iraq policy has been the “single issue” encouraging Joseph McLaughlin, an obscure country commissioner, to challenge the seven-term Congressman from a “safe seat” in North Carolina:

“A number of us have become very concerned about his drift to the left, espousing ideas that we don’t think reflect the views of the conservative base back in the district,” McLaughlin said. “Virtually every major vote on the war on terror, he has lined up with the liberals.”

And in Maryland, Rep. Gilchrest is facing a well-organized primary challenge from right-wing State Senator Andy Harris:

“People across the country desire to return to the Reagan values that brought the Republican Party to power – fiscal responsibility, a strong national defense, traditional values and an optimistic view of this country and its role as a world leader,” Harris said.

Primary challenges are wonderful things. In our two-party, big-money system with engineered super-safe districts for incumbents, it’s where the real small-d democracy gets done these days. The more choices for voters, the better. These four potential primaries, as well as the presidential primaries in the early states, will have the added benefit of providing an early look for the entire nation at the direction GOP activists want the Republican party to take on Iraq.

However, this pro-democracy opinion of primaries (especially those where Iraq is a major issue) was certainly not one shared by right-wing and “centrist” politicians, “civil” pro-war pundits, and other members of the “reasonable” traditional media establishment, all of whom happily took part in last summer’s Rove-inspired media orgy demonizing the year’s most significant primary challenge and grassroots movement as nothing but an attempted party “purge.” (Nevermind that the incumbent in question actually promised to quit the party himself before the primary, and then swiftly followed up on it after losing).

So, a question: How many of the following figures who were so quick to see Stalinism in Stamford last August will be denouncing pro-war Republicans for their attempted quadruple “purge” this cycle? Don’t hold your breath:

It’s no wonder that so much time is being given to the Democratic primary in Connecticut, and that so many voices are being heard. The ideological triumphalists proclaim it a great renewal in the Democratic Party, beginning with the glorious purge of Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

William F. Buckley, August 12, 2006

It should be noted that both Cheney and Mehlman pointedly referred to the Lamont win as a “purge,” echoing the seminal anti-Lamont editorial by the Democratic Leadership Council from two months ago which used the term eight times. They were joined in that effort last week by virtually the entire conservative punditry establishment, with everyone from Cal Thomas (“Purge by Taliban Democrats” was his clever innovation) to American Conservative Union chief Patrick Keene (“The purge that began with the McGovernite seizure of the party . . . “) to Foundation for Defense of Democracies president Clifford May (“The August Purge of Lieberman,” a funny historical malapropism; May was trying to echo Soviet Russia, which had an August putsch, not a purge) to Fox’s John McIntyre to a whole host of others decrying Lamont’s supporters as rich, elitist, neo-commie liberals bent on softening us all up for a terrorist attack, apparently just for the pure, America-hating thrill of it.

Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone, August 15, 2006

Meanwhile, the New York Times’s David Brooks lashed out at the “liberal inquisition” unfolding in Connecticut, the type of phenomenon that could be understood “only [by] experts in moral manias and mob psychology.” ABC’s Cokie Roberts sang from the choir sheet this Sunday morning, announcing a Lamont win would mean “a disaster for the Democratic Party.”

Roberts’s ABC colleague Jake Tapper labeled Lieberman’s challenge as a “a party purge of a moderate Democrat”; a cliché repeated constantly among the talking heads. Los Angeles Times columnist Jonathan Chait ridiculed grassroots Lamont activists by suggesting “their technique of victory-via-purge is on display in Connecticut.” Martin Peretz, editor in chief of The New Republic, who in a recent radio interview refused to say whether he actually wanted Democrats to gain control of Congress in November, denounced the “thought-enforcers of the left” supporting Lamont, whom Peretz mocked as “Karl Rove’s dream come true.”

Earlier in the campaign, Washington Post columnist David Broder dismissed Connecticut’s progressives as “elitist insurgents.” Over at the Rothenberg Political Report, Beltway mainstay Stuart Rothenberg was in a tizzy that Lamont’s win would “only embolden the crazies in the [Democratic] party,” the “bomb-throwers.” (Like Broder, Rothenberg opted for terror terminology to describe the democratic process unfolding in Connecticut.)

Eric Boehlert, The Nation, August 11, 2006

“And as I look at what happened yesterday, it strikes me that it’s a perhaps unfortunate and significant development from the standpoint of the Democratic Party, that what it says about the direction the party appears to be heading in when they, in effect, purge a man like Joe Lieberman, who was just six years ago their nominee for Vice President, is of concern, especially over the issue of Joe’s support with respect to national efforts in the global war on terror.”

Vice President Cheney, August 9, 2006