SSP Daily Digest: 5/17 (Afternoon Edition)

AR-Sen: The White House hasn’t given up on trying to put Blanche Lincoln over the top tomorrow; they’re out with a new Barack Obama robocall on her behalf, saying she’s “standing on the side of workers.” Greg Sargent’s head is busy exploding from all the logical disconnect, since Lincoln’s main argument is that Bill Halter’s union support is an indication of how he’s a tool of Beltway liberals.

AZ-Sen: I know, I know, people pick up and move on from jobs all the time, and you shouldn’t read too much into it. But when your campaign manager and deputy campaign manager depart on the same day, in the middle of a dogfight against an insurgent primary opponent, it’s going to always send up red flags. John McCain’s camp maintains they weren’t fired but are moving over to the national GOP’s fundraising operations.

CA-Sen: This isn’t a good time for Tom Campbell to be cutting back on advertising, with the June 8 GOP primary fast approaching and Carly Fiorina still within striking distance and pitching in a few million dollars of her own. He’s cutting back on TV ad buys for the campaign’s final two weeks (although certainly not going dark) and will be focusing on direct mail instead. This could mean he’s running low on money, feeling confident enough in the primary to start marshaling general election resources… or both.

IL-Sen: I don’t know if it’s much of a sign of strength to release an internal poll that shows you tied, but it seems like the Alexi Giannoulias camp is eager to push back on the meme that he’s somehow been fatally wounded by the Broadway Bank saga. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds Giannoulias and Mark Kirk tied at 44-44. For comparison purposes, they also let it be known that their previous (unreleased) poll, immediately after the Feds’ seizure of the bank in late April, had Giannoulias in much worse shape, down 43-37, so it’s possible the worst of the damage has passed as the story slips down the memory hole.

KY-Sen: Wow, turns out not only Democrats get to whine about Fox News’ selective treatment of the news. Trey Grayson is getting in on the act, griping about Rand Paul’s constant presence on the network and the softball questions he gets thrown. That’d be fine if he were, y’know, not trying to win the GOP primary, where questioning the almighty Fox is an act of heresy. (Ironically, at the same time Grayson was having his press conference to level the charges, Rand Paul was busy appearing on Fox.)

CA-Gov: In the Fix endorsement hierarchy, this probably slots in as “12) The “Oh shit, do I have to accept this endorsement?” Endorsement.” Meg Whitman just got Dick Cheney’s endorsement, fittingly in an op-ed in the Orange County Register. Meanwhile, a new poll from M4 Strategies (on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee) finds Whitman in better shape than the last few polls have: they say she leads Steve Poizner 49-32.

CT-Gov: Yet another pre-convention dropout, as the minor candidates jump out of the way. This time it was on the Republican side, as Danbury mayor Mark Boughton plans to pull the plug on his campaign and sign on as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele’s running mate.

NM-Gov: The Albuquerque Journal polled the Republican gubernatorial primary, which, like many other primaries, has moved into “fast-approaching” territory (on June 1). They find a two-way duel at the top, between former state party chair Allen Weh and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez. Weh leads 31-30, while Pete Domenici Jr. has discovered that you’ve gotta have something more than name rec as a reason to run; he’s lagging at 10. Martinez was also the latest female politician to get the endorsement of Sarah Palin this week, so we’ll have to see if that gives her some momentum to break away.

NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also looked at the Republican gubernatorial primary in their most recent poll. (Recall they released the surprising results of Sue Lowden 30, Sharron Angle 25, Danny Tarkanian 22, John Chachas 3, and Chad Christensen 2 in the Senate primary last week.) They find, to no one’s surprise, that Jim Gibbons’ time is about done. Brian Sandoval leads the incumbent Gibbons, 45-27, with Mike Montandon clocking in at 6.

OR-Gov: One more Republican gubernatorial primary, and this one actually is a surprise: while most pollsters (especially SurveyUSA) have given Chris Dudley a significant edge in Oregon, Eugene-based Lindholm says that Allen Alley is narrowly in the lead. Alley is ahead of Dudley 29-26, John Lim is at 10, and Bill Sizemore is at 4. One caveat: I’ve never heard of Lindholm before today, although they do maintain they aren’t working for any of the candidates in the race. At any rate, maybe there’s some potential for a surprise tomorrow.

NY-13: Here’s some interesting cat fud in the primary in the 13th, where GOP state Sen. Andrew Lanza was seen going after GOP candidate Michael Grimm over campaigning at a Memorial Day event. Lanza had been associated with running for the seat himself, and says he’ll back ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in case the odd rumors about a comeback come true.

NY-24: After refusing to commit to his re-election bid back in April after getting pressed from all sides on his HCR conduct, Dem Rep. Mike Arcuri announced today that he will indeed be seeking a third term. (J)

OR-05: After some earlier suspicions that moderate state Rep. Scott Bruun, the NRCC’s preferred recruit, might not even get past teabagging businessman Fred Thompson (no, not the Fred Thompson), SurveyUSA polled the GOP primary and found that Bruun is very likely to prevail. Bruun leads Thompson 46-25, including 52-30 among the “already voted.”

WV-01: Political scientist Boris Shor has attracted some good notices, at 538 and similar places, for his work on extrapolating DW-Nominate-type scores into the state legislatures. Looking at Mike Oliverio’s votes in the West Virginia state Senate (where he’s about as conservative as the average WV Senate Republican), Shor projects Oliverio as the most conservative Democratic member of the House, more so than even Walt Minnick.

CfG: Speaking of Walt Minnick, he was one of only three Democrats to get the seal of good housekeeping from the Club for Growth. Minnick, Gene Taylor, and Bobby Bright all managed to break 50% on the CfG’s scoring system; in fact, Bright got up to 64% positive.

Polltopia: PPP wants your input on where to poll next: California, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, or Washington? PPP’s Tom Jensen is also teasing that another NRSC-backed candidate is in some trouble, in a poll to be released tomorrow. Don’t leave us hanging, Tom!

SSP Daily Digest: 4/9 (Afternoon Edition)

KY-Sen: AG Jack Conway has a new ad up in the Democratic primary, hitting Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo for $57K in luxury travel on the taxpayer dime. That might get some attention, but a potentially more interesting story is about decidedly non-luxurious accommodations: Mongiardo has been staying with his in-laws while he’s on the job in Frankfort. The problem with that? He’s still taking his $30K/yr. housing stipend despite not needing to spend it.

AZ-Gov: Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio is getting kind of like the boy who cried wolf, in terms of his constant expressions of interest in running for Governor that never pan out (the 77-year-old Arpaio been doing so for more than a decade). He’s back in the news today saying he’s looking into the costs of a petition drive, just in case he decides he wants to run this year.

IL-Gov: If your fellow Republican is publicly criticizing you for being too extreme, you’re probably doing it wrong. Moderate ex-Gov. Jim Edgar (the last Illinois governor to finish his term without the law hot on his heels, and a Kirk Dillard backer in this year’s primary) smacked down state Sen. Bill Brady, saying instead that raising taxes (as Pat Quinn plans to do) is the only way out of the state’s budget mess.

MN-Gov: State House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher got a key union endorsement today, from hotel union UNITE HERE. She’s lining up the institutional pieces for the DFL endorsement, which will happen later this month.

PA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel got the endorsement of Planned Parenthood in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania. (With Hoeffel and state Sen. Anthony Williams the only pro-choice candidates in the field, it probably wasn’t a very tough decision.)

HI-01: The DCCC has been hitting Charles Djou for signing the Grover Norquist/Americans for Tax Reform no-tax pledge, although they’re doing so in a roundabout way: they’re saying Djou signed a pledge “that protects tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas” (as the pledge requires opposing the end of any deductions or credits). If the message gets some traction in this testing ground, expect to see more of it in November.

MN-06: Aubrey Immelman is back. The college professor who ran against Michele Bachmann in the GOP primary in 2008 will try again in 2010, saying “I am a single-issue candidate. That is to defeat Michele Bachmann.” He hasn’t said whether he’ll run in the GOP primary again, though, or as an indie in the general (where he’d bump up against IP candidate Bob Anderson).

ND-AL: In the wake of strong numbers from Republican opponent state Rep. Rick Berg, Earl Pomeroy released his own numbers today, and they’re good too. Pomeroy raised $407K (to Berg’s $483K), but Pomeroy’s big advantage is in cash on hand; he’s sitting on $1.6 million.

NY-20: Scott Murphy also posted good fundraising numbers today, as he gears up to face Republican Chris Gibson, who’s only beginning his campaign. Murphy raised $475K last quarter, and has $1.1 million CoH.

OR-05: Here’s a race where I didn’t even know cat fud was a-flyin’. But if his own poll is to believed, it looks like teabagger Fred Thompson (no, not the former presidential candidate) could steal the nomination from prized NRCC recruit state Rep. Scott Bruun (who’s from the moderate suburban wing of the GOP that used to actually be able to win elections in Oregon). Thompson has a poll from GOP pollster John Feliz showing him leading Bruun by 2% (although specific numbers don’t seem forthcoming). Either one would have an uphill fight against Rep. Kurt Schrader in the general.

VA-09: One other fundraising highlight from today sees Rep. Rick Boucher girding for a likely battle against GOP state House majority leader Morgan Griffith. Boucher raised $317K for the quarter, not phenomenal although fine for a cheap media district and better than Griffith’s $104K (though Griffith’s fundraising was condensed into the last few weeks of the cycle, after his announcement). After years of facing nobodies or outright nobody, though, Boucher has built up a huge surplus, and is now sitting on just shy of $2 million CoH.

Vermont: The Green Mountain State is moving up its primary date, in order to comply with national laws intended to make sure that military personnel have time to return their ballots. Gov. Jim Douglas says he won’t veto the new law, passed by the legislature, moving the primary from mid-September to August 24.

Teabaggers: A Univ. of Washington study of teabaggers in battleground states has some interesting demographic information, and also some data about underlying attitudes that confirm what some of us have been suspecting: it’s largely about racial resentment. People who believe the government “has done too much to support blacks” are 36% more likely to back the teabaggers than those who don’t. And of those who approve of the Tea Party movement, only a minority said that they believe blacks to be “hardworking” (35%), “intelligent” (45%), or “trustworthy” (41%). Here’s the money quote from the study’s author:

“While it’s clear that the tea party in one sense is about limited government, it’s also clear from the data that people who want limited government don’t want certain services for certain kinds of people. Those services include health care,”Parker said.

Polltopia: While some people (like Markos) have been feeling more optimistic as the enthusiasm gap between the parties narrows, PPP’s Tom Jensen sees the problem persisting even if it’s improving. PPP finds that if the electorate were composed the same as in 2008, they’d have found the Dems in the lead in their recent polls of OH-Sen, PA-Sen, IL-Sen, and WI-Gov. Instead, though, the LV samples pull in a disproportionate number of McCain voters than Obama voters.

SSP Daily Digest: 2/18

AZ-Sen: John McCain’s various Republican establishment friends keep showing up in droves to give him a boost in his primary fight against J.D. Hayworth. Today, it was the turn for former Tennessee senator and brief presidential primary rival Fred Thompson, who awoke from his slumbers long enough to give McCain the thumbs-up.

KS-Sen: Wow, things are actually happening in Kansas. Not that it seems likely that Democrats are going to be in a position to make either the governor’s or senate races there competitive, but at least they’re filling the holes with credible candidates. In the wake of state Sen. Tom Holland getting into the gubernatorial race for the Dems, now Kansas City-based state Sen. David Haley is making noises about running for Senate. He’ll make a final decision within the month. Former newspaper publisher Charles Schollenberger is already a candidate, but Haley sounds like an upgrade.

ND-Sen: Kristin Hedger, a 29-year-old businesswoman in North Dakota who lost the most recent Secretary of State race, is floating her name for the Democratic nod in the Senate race. She says she’ll defer to former AG Heidi Heitkamp if she gets in, but is interested in the race if not. State Sen. Tracy Potter is already in the race for the Dems. (And yes, it sounds like she’s aware about needing to be 30 to be a Senator; she’ll be 30 by swearing-in day.)

NV-Sen (pdf): The legacy media keeps treating the GOP primary in Nevada like a two-way fight between Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, but I’m going to keep maintaining that former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is the real one to watch here (seeing as how Lowden gets tarred with the “RINO” label and is especially loathed by the Paulist set). A straw poll conducted during the Clark County Republican Party Central Committee meeting several weeks ago supports that idea, as Angle finished first, with 49 votes out of a total of 202. Tarkanian and Lowden were still, of course, right in the thick of things, at 48 and 46 respectively. In a bit of a surprise, Some Dude named Bill Parson was a solid 4th with 24 votes. (Parson seems to be working the hardcore teabagger angle. And check out the flattop – shades of Bob Conley all around.) Another potential wrinkle for the GOP: Sen. Jim DeMint, self-appointed kingmaker on the extreme right, while speaking at CPAC, wouldn’t rule out supporting third-party Tea Party candidates where the GOP fails to nominate “strong” candidates – and he explicitly mentioned one state: Nevada. Recall that the Tea Party just sprang into existence as an official 3rd party in Nevada, and already have a candidate lined up (Jon Ashjian).

NY-Sen-B: I’m still chuckling over Mort Zuckerman’s trial balloons regarding the New York Senate race… but then, I was also chuckling about Harold Ford Jr. at first too. The super-wealthy publisher Zuckerman has gotten some encouragement from state party chair Ed Cox to look into running. Still, Cox is also encouraging other entrants (like Orange County Executive Edward Diana) as well, even while a number of county-level party chieftains have started lining up behind port commissioner Bruce Blakeman.

OH-Sen: The DSCC is starting to play offense against ex-Rep. Rob Portman, hitting the former Bush budget director, ardent free trader, and all-around consummate insider with a playful new website: “Mr. Portman’s Neighborhood,” conveniently located at the corner of K Street and Wall Street. (Which, seeing as how we spent an inordinate amount of time here thinking about redistricting, only served to remind us of this 2006 article from The Onion.)

UT-Sen: Even though Club for Growth hasn’t settled on which primary opponent to Bob Bennett they want to back, it seems like Dick Armey’s FreedomWorks has made up their minds. They’ll be backing Mike Lee, who despite his conservative legal establishment pedigree (son of former Solicitor General Rex Lee, and former clerk to Samuel Alito) has been reaching out to the tea party platoons.

HI-Gov: Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann is operating in a kind of legal limbo for now, and his gubernatorial primary rival, Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is crying foul. Hannemann has opened a campaign account (which has $2 million in it) and, as such, is listed as running for governor with the state’s Campaign Spending Commission, and he’s actively campaigning around the state. However, despite the state’s resign-to-run law, he’s staying in his current position as mayor, as he doesn’t have to resign until he actually files to run with the state’s Office of Elections.

NY-Gov: This is the weirdest endorsement I’ve ever read (although, where Ed Koch and David Paterson are concerned, I wouldn’t expect anything else); in fact it may be more of a diss than an endorsement. At any rate, I’ll just let Koch speak for himself: “I am for him, in effect, out of sympathy for his being in a Kakfa-esque situation.’ You can’t do this to people, use rumors to destroy them…But I’m not really for him.”

PA-Gov: As he’s been hinting for a few weeks now, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty finally ended his long-shot Democratic gubernatorial bid, plagued by weak fundraising. He’s still looking to move on from his mayoral gig, though, and instead he’s going to run for the state Senate seat being vacated by long-time Dem Robert Mellow. (He’d also apparently considered the Lt. Governor slot, but that option seemed closed after the state party endorsed former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel by a wide margin.) Meanwhile, Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato seems to moving closer to something approaching frontrunner status with another big labor endorsement, this time from the United Steelworkers.

DE-AL: Republicans had apparently been pinning hopes on wealthy businessman Anthony Wedo in order to help them retain Delaware’s at-large seat, vacated by Rep. Mike Castle and soon to be occupied by Democratic ex-LG John Carney. Wedo won’t be running, though, leaving another (and apparently less wealthy, which would explain the NRCC’s seeming indifference to him) businessman, Fred Cullis, as the only GOP face in the race.

PA-12: Here’s a surprise: state Sen. John Wozniak, a longtime Johnstown ally of Rep. John Murtha and always at the top of the list when successors were discussed, has decided not to run in the special election to replace Murtha. I wonder if that gives some credence to this article from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (not Pittsburgh’s “real” paper, but rather the local mouthpiece for the right-wing Mellon/Scaife crowd), which made some provocative allegations: that both parties were basically prepared to write this depopulated district off, in preparation for its dismantling during the 2012 redistricting process. Rumors are that the GOP wouldn’t launch a top-tier effort and that Murtha’s widow, Joyce, would hold the seat for the three years until its elimination (and, according to the article, “Democratic leaders” say she’s emerged as the leading contender) – so for a key Murtha ally like Wozniak to stand down suggests there’s some truth to this. Notwithstanding this seeming master plan, though, former GOP state treasurer Barbara Hafer and Ryan Bucchanieri remain in the hunt for the Dems.

CA-LG: I’m surprised that San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom would want to give up being executive of a major city in exchange for a do-nothing job with a fancy title, but maybe he sees that as a better stepping stone to becoming Governor someday (although he should ask John Garamendi how that ever worked out). Bolstered by polling giving him a big edge in the LG race, he’s filing a ballot statement to run and is in the process of reassembling a campaign team.

Polltopia: Nate Silver weighs in on the great Firedoglake/SurveyUSA debate of ’10 (with what’s hopefully the last word on the matter), saying that he doesn’t see anything “untoward” going on here, although methodological choices seem to add up to some pro-GOP house effects.

CA-Pres: Giuliani’s lead evaporating?

Whoa. The latest poll from SurveyUSA on the GOP presidential primary race in California shows Giulani’s lead having shrunk from 20% last month to just 2% a mere 5 days after Fred Thompson’s announcement on Jay Leno. If Thompson can pick off California, we could be moving a lot closer to a deadlocked GOP convention.

Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.

Crosstab analysis below the flip.

Thompson leads by 4% with men, but trails 12% with women. The partisan breakdown by gender is huge here: 63% of the likely GOP primary voters were men. Thompson remained completely flat with women since last month, while Romney gained 8% among women.

Among conservatives (58%), Thompson beats Giuliani 31% to 22% (with McCain and Romney trailing at 17% and 16% respectively). Moderates (33%) strongly go for Giuliani (40%). Thompson gains 8% with conservatives.

Blacks (3%) preferred Thompson to Giuliani 35% to 23%. Thompson gains 20% here, more than double his previous numbers.

Thompson leads by 1% among a crucial GOP voter segment, complete idiots people who think Global Warming is made-up, whereas more sensible GOP voters (relatively speaking here) prefer Giuliani by 5%.

76% of likely GOP voters oppose gay marriage, and they prefer Thompson by 1%

Gun owners prefer Thompson by 2%, the gunless go for Rudy by 7%.

Young voters prefer Rudy, and increasing agge correlates with increasing preference for Thompson.

Here’s a really odd one. Giuliani leads among Bush voters (85%) by 2%. Thompson leads among Kerry voters (7%) by 3%. However, those who think Bush is one of the Greatest American Presidents (26%) prefer Thompson by 2%, and those who think he is one of the worst (18%) prefer Giuliani by 6%.

So, why do we care? If Thompson wins CA and the South, and Romney wins the Mountain West, eastern New England, and gives a strong showing in the Midwest (winning IA, MI, and perhaps some of the Great Plains states), and Giuliani does his thing in the Mid-Atlantic, Illinois, and Swing States like FL, MO, OH, and CO, then we could be headed for a deadlocked contest that goes to the convention for a resolution. This would force the GOP candidates to spend money on the primaries rather than saving for the General election. It would also increase the chances of the GOP’s weakest candidate, Mitt Romney, getting nominated and then crushed by the Democratic nominee in the general.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Fred Thompson’s in, and leading the South

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Presidential Matchups in North Carolina

Public Policy Polling is out with another poll.  This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.

But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:

Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.

Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll.  This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.

First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.

This number has been fairly consistent for a while.  If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.

Next up is Elizabeth Dole.

This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval.  Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%.  She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.

Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor.  Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37.  Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.

Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.

From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results.  I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly.  However, I will talk about their results.

I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status.  However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us.  They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval.  They also show 22% with no opinion.  They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name.  Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising.  It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be.  If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.

With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller.  So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%.  She is in BIG trouble.

Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll.  They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.

Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%

Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%

Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%

Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%

In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton.  But, his real strength is amongst independent voters.  Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.

What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates.  Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem.  Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain?  Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?

All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.

Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men.  This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”. 

Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33! 
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!

There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself.  There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.

A quick personal note to end the diary.  Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday.  The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08  Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.

Presidential Endorsements

This is a diary of Presidential Endorsements that I will periodically update.  It will include those I learn of and I make no pretensions of this being a comprehensive listing.  I welcome comments that update endorsements as the election progresses as I plan to update this diary periodically.  The more eyes we have looking, the more accurate this can be.  I considered piggybacking the 2008 race tracker David set up as adding a line to the bio boxes would not be too time consuming, but will try a diary first.

I am attempting to track Members of Congress, Governors, State Party Chairs, former officeholders, and other politically prominent individuals like George Soros or Donald Trump.

If I missed any candidates in the tabs let me know.  I plan to list the states and sublist by candidate.  Will do Democrats then Republicans.  The primaries are by states so listing by states can show where someone is running strong.

If I am not sure what state someone connects to I will list as unknown under the state of the candidate they’re endorsing until I can place them more accurately.
Unless I can determine their home otherwise, I list anyone connected Hollywood under California, and move them later if I determine where exactly they do in fact live.


Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Artur Davis

-Rep. Terry Everett

-94 & 98 GOP Gov. nominee Winston Blount III
-Rep. Spencer Bachus
-Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears
-Dax Swatek campaign manager for fmr Gov. Bob Riley


-Rep. Don Young


-Raul Yzaguirre – President National Council of La Raza

-Rep. Raul Grijalva

-Rep. Trent Franks

-Senator Jon Kyl
-Rep. Rick Renzi
-Rep. John Shadegg
-Rep. Jeff Flake

-Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff


-Gov. Mike Beebe
-Rep. Marion Berry
-Fmr. General Wesley Clark
-Jimmie Lou Fisher – losing 2002 Gov. nominee
-Mac McClarty – fmr. Chief of Staff for Bill Clinton
-Sen. Mark Pryor
-Rep. Mike Ross
-Rep. Vic Snyder

-Rep. John Boozman


-Sen. Diane Feinstein
-Hugh Hefner – of Playboy fame
-Magic Johnson – Hall of Fame Basketball player
-Rep. Tom Lantos
-Rep. Grace Napolitano
-Gavin Newsome – Mayor of San Fransisco
-Rob Reiner – filmproducer “meathead of All in the Family”
-Filmmaker Steven Speilberg
-Antonio Villaraigosa – Mayor of Los Angeles

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Xavier Bercerra
-Rep. Anna Eshoo
-Steve Martin – a “wild & crazy guy”
-Lorne Michaels – Saturday Night Live producer
-Rep. Doris Matsui
-Paul Newman – actor

-fmr Rep. & St. Sen Leader John Burton
-Seth “Scott Evil” Green – actor
-Don Henley of rock band “The Eagles”
-David Mixner – noted GLBT activist
-Scott Weiner – Board of Directors: Human Rights Campaign

Barack OBAMA
-Jennifer Anniston – actress
-George Clooney – actor
-Tom Hanks – Actor
-Tobey Maguire – Actor

-Michael Douglas – actor

-Rep. David Drier
-Kelsey Grammer – actor
-Rep. Jerry Lewis
-Dennis Miller – comedian
-Fmr. LA Mayor Richard Riordan
-Adam Sandler – actor
-Ben Stein – actor
-fmr. Gov. Pete Wilson

-Chuck Yeager – retired Astronaut

-Rep. Daniel Lungren

-Rep. John Campbell
-Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon


Barack OBAMA
-Frederico Pena – fmr Mayor of Denver and Clinton cabinet member

-Sen. Wayne Allard

-Bob Beauprez – losing 2006 gubernatorial candidate

-Bay Buchanan – political commentator


Christopher DODD
-Sanford Cloud – fmr. Pres. National Conference for Community Justice
-Rep. Joe Courtney
-Rep. Rosa DeLauro
-Stanley Greenberg – Democratic pollster
-Rep. John Larson
-Rep. Chris Murphy

-Rep. Christopher Shays


Joseph BIDEN
-Senator Thomas Carper

-Rep. Mike Castle


-Rep. Alcee Hastings
-Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Robert Wexler

-Jeb Bush Jr., son of fmr Gov Bush

-Rep. C.W. “Bill” YOUNG

-Rep. Ric Keller
-Rep. Ilena Ros-Lehtinen
-Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart
-Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart

-Rep. Ginny Brown-gWaite
-Rep. Tom Feeney
-Dorothy Bush Koch – sister of Jeb & President George Bush

-George P. Bush s/o Gov. Jeb Bush
-Randy Enright – Fla. regional Director for RNC
-Rep. Jeff Miller
-Rep. Adam Putnam


-Rep. John Lewis

-fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes
-Shi Shailendra – Atlanta business leader

-Rep. Jack Kingston
-Rep. Tom Price
-Rep. John Lindner
-Rep. Phil Gingrey


-Sen. Daniel Inouye

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Neil Abercrombie


-Senator Larry Craig
-Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
-Rep. Mike Simpson


Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Melissa Bean
-Governor Rod Blagojevich
-Rep. Jerry Costello
-Matt Damon – actor
-Rep. Danny Davis
-Senator Richard Durbin
-Rep. Luis Guiterrez
-Rep. Phil Hare
-Christine Hefner – CEO Playboy Enterprises
-Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.
-Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.
-Rep. Bobby Rush
-Rep. Jan Schakowsky
-Oprah Winfrey

-fmr. Gov. James Thompson

-Rep. Mark Kirk
-Rep. Roy LaHood
-Rep. John Shimkus
-IL. Sen. Minority Leader Frank Watson

-Rep. Dennis Hastert

-Rep. Donald Manzullo


-Sen. Evan Bayh

-Gov. Mitch Daniels

-James Bopp Jr. – Legal counsel for the National Right to Life Committee

-Rep. Dan Burton
-Rep. Steve Buyer


-Jerry Crawford – noted Dem strategist in Iowa
-Ruth Harkin – wife of Sen. Tom Harkin
-fmr. Gov. Tom Vilsack

-Ed Fallon – fmr. St. Rep. & Dem. Gubernatorial candidate
-Jennifer O’Malley – 2004 Iowa field director for John Edwards

-Joe Earle – Director of Outreach Iowa Christian Alliance

-Andrew Dorr – fmr. political director for Jim Nussle KANSAS

-Sen. Sam Brownback


-Rep. Ron Lewis
-Rep. Harold Rogers
-Rep. Ed Whitfield


-Thomas Boggs – Lobbyist

-Senator David Vitter

-Rep. Rodney Alexander
-Rep. Jim McCrey

-David Duke –  fmr KKK Imperial Wizard


-David Garrity – fmr. DNC member & LGBT activist

-Senator Susan Collins
-Senator Olympia Snowe


-Sen. Barbara Mikulski
-Gov. Martin O’Malley

-Joe Trippi – Howard Dean’s campaign manager in 2004
-Rep. Albert Wynn

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Elijah Cummings

-fmr. Gov. Robert Ehrlich


-Rep. James McGovern
-Rep. Richard Neal
-Joe Wilson – husband of outed CIA operative Valerie Plame

Barack OBAMA
-Laurence Tribe – noted Constitutional Law scholar
-Paul Weyrich – Free Congress Foundation


-Sen. Debbie Stabenow

-Rep. Bart Stupak

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. John Conyers

-Rep. Candace Miller
-James Tiganelli – Police Officers Association of America

-Rep. Fred Upton

-Rep. Dave Camp
-Rep. Peter Hoekstra
-Rep. Joe Knollenberg

-fmr. Sen. Spencer Abraham


-Scott Benson – Majority Leader Minneapolis City Council
-Rep. James Oberstar

-fmr. VP Walter Mondale

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Keith Ellison

-Governor Tim Pawlenty


-Don Wildmon – (American Family Ass’n)

-Senator Trent Lott


-fmr. Rep. Richard Gephardt

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Russ Carnahan
-Rep. Lacy Clay

-John McCAIN
-Rich BOND – fmr. RNC Chair

-Governor Matt Blunt




-Rory Reid – son of Harry Reid
-Dina Titus – losing 2006 Dem. Gov. nominee

Barack OBAMA
-Floyd Mayweather, professional boxer

Joseph BIDEN
-St. Rep. Steve Shurtleff, Ass’t House Majority Leader

-St. Sen. Betsey DeVries
-Bill Shaheen – husband of ex-Gov.Jeanne Shaheen
-St. Rep. Mary Jane Wallner – NH House Majority Leader

-St. Sen. Peter Burling
-St. Sen. Joe Foster
-St. Sen. David Gottesman

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Paul Hodes
-Gary Hirshberg – CEO Stonyfield Yogurt
-Bishop Gene Robinson – 1st openly gay Epicopalian Bishop

-Steve Marchand – Mayor of Portswouth

-Steve Duprey – fmr. Chair NH GOP
-Peter Spaulding – fmr. NH Executive Councillor

-Barbara Hagan – Frm Rep. & Pro-life acticist

-Sen. Judd GREGG
-Bruce Keough – 2002 GOP nominee for NH Gov.
-Jim Merrill – Attorney in Manchester


-Rep. Rob Andrews
-Gov. John Corzine
-Sen. Robert Menendez
-Rep. Frank Pallone

-fmr. Governor Richard Codey
-A.J. Sabath – fmr. Labor Commissioner
-St. Sen. Stephen Sweeney

Barack OBAMA
-Cory Booker – Mayor of Newark

-fmr. Gov Tom Kean Sr.


-Senator Jeff Bingaman
-Rep. Tom Udall


-Rep. Gary Ackerman
-Rep. Michael Arcuri
-Actress Candace Bergen
-Rep. Steven Bishop
-Rep. Yvette Clarke
-Rep. Joseph Crowley
-fmr. Mayor of NYC David Dinkins
-Rep. Eliot Engel
-fmr Rep. Geraldine Ferraro
-Rep. Kristin Gillibrand
-Rep. John Hall
-Rep. Brian Higgins
-Rep. Maurice Hinchey
-Rep. Stephen Isreal
-Robert Johnson – billionaire founder of Black Entertainment TV
-Billie Jean King – All-time tennis great
-Rep. Nita Lowey
-Rep. Carolyn Maloney
-Rep. Carolyn McCarthy
-Rep. Michael McNulty
-Rep. Gregory Meeks
-Rep. Jerrold Nadler
-Rep. Charles Ragnal
-Senator Charles Schumer
-Rep. Joseph Serrano
-Rep. Louise Slaughter
-Gov. Eliot Spitzer
-Rep. Edolphus Towns
-Rep. Nydia Velazquez
-Rep. Anthony Weiner (candidate: Mayor of NYC)

Barack OBAMA
-Shelia C. Johnson – billionarie co-founder of Black Entertainment TV

-Steve Forbes – Chief executive Forbes magazine
-Rep. Vito Fossella
-Louis Freeh – fmr. Director FBI
-Rep. Peter King
-St. Sen. Andrew Lanza
-Fmr. Rep. Guy Molinari
-Theodore Olson – fmr. Slicitor General
-Rep. James Walsh

-Colin Powell – fmr. Sec of State

-fmr. Sen. Alphonse D’Amato


-Rep. G. K. Butterfield
-Rep. Bob Etheridge
-Rep. Mike McIntyre
-Rep. Brad Miller
-Rep. David Price
-Rep. Heath Schuler
-Rep. Mel Watt

-Ric Flair – Professional Wrestler

-Charlie Black Jr. – longtime GOP political strategist
-Senator Richard Burr

-Rep. Sue Myrick


-Merle Boucher – ND House Minority Leader
-Roger Johnson – ND Agriculture Commissioner
-David O’Connell – ND Senate Minority Leader


-Jerry Springer – fmr Mayor of Cincinnati & Talk show host
-Gov. Ted Strickland
-Rep. Stephanie Tubb-Jones

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Timothy Ryun

Barack OBAMA
-Mike Coleman – Mayor of Columbus
-St. Sen. Eric Kearney

-Phil Burress – “Citizen’s for Community Values”

-fmr Sen. Mike Dewine
-Rep. Stephen LaTourette

-Rep. Ralph Regula
-Dr. John Wilke – Chair Right to Life Committee


-fmr. Gov. Frank Keating
-Rep. Stephen LaTourette


-Senator Gordon Smith

-Vance Day – fmr. Ore State GOP Chair
-Kevin Mannix – fmr. GOP Gov. nominee


-John Street – outgoing Mayor of Philadelphia

-Kate Michelman ex-President of NARAL

-fmr. Governor Tom RIDGE

-Rep. Bud Schuster


-Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse

Christopher DODD
-Rep. Patrick Kennedy


-st. Rep. Fletcher Smith

-St. Rep. Terry Alexander
-St. Sen. Robert Ford – black leader
-fmr. St. Sen. Maggie Glover
-St. Sen. Darrell Jackson – black leader
-St. Rep. David J. Mack III
-fmr. Gov. Richard Riley
-St. Rep. John Scott Jr.

-St. Rep. Bill Clyburn – black leader
-Bob Coble – Mayor of Columbia
-St. Rep. Chris Hart – black leader
-St. Rep. Lonnie Hosey – black leader

Barack OBAMA
-Ernest Finney – 1st black SC Supreme Justice
-Dick Harpootlian – fmr. Dem. State Chair

-James Dukes – SC director for John Kerry 2004
-Lachlan McIntosh – Executive Director Dem Party of South Carolina

-Karen Floyd – Spartenburg Co. Council
-Jim Miles – fmr. Sec of State in SC, failed 2002 GOP Gov candidate
-fmr. Rep. Arthur Ravenel, father of cocaine fiend Thomas Ravenel
-Thomas Ravenel -disgraced SC State Treasurer, indicted on cocaine distribution charges (SC chair Guiliani campaign when indicted)
-Heath Thompson – SC Political operative
-Barry Wynn – fmr. SC GOP Chair

-Iris Campbell widow of Gov. Carroll Campbell
-Mike Campbell fmr. Lt. Gov candidate s/o Iris

-Caroll Campbell III s/o fmr. Gov.
-Sen. Lindsey Graham
-Secretary of State Mark Hammond
-State House Speaker Bobby Harrell
-St. Sen. Hugh Leatherman
-SC Atty. Gen Henry McMaster
-Richard Quinn – SC political consultant
-St. Rep. Doug Smith (Speaker Pro Tem of the House)
-Adjutant Gen. Stan Spears

-Rick Beltram GOP State Chair for SC
-Sen. James DeMint
-ex-Gov. James Edwards
-ex-Rep. Thomas Hartnett
-Bob Jones III
-Brig. Gen. Thomas R. Mikolajcik
-Terry Sullivan – Fmr. Sen. DeMint campaign manager
-Robert Taylor – Dean @ Bob Jones University
-Paul Thurmond: Charleston Councilman & son of fmr. Sen. Strom Thurmond
-Warren Tompkins – SC politial consultant
-Lt. Gen. Claudius “Bud” Elmer Watts III
-Don Wilton – Spartanburg superchurch pastor

-Rep. Gresham Barrett


-Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin

Barack OBAMA
-fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle

-Governor Mike Rounds

-Sen. John Thune


Christopher DODD
-fmr. Senator James Sasser

-Ted Welch – prolific Southern GOP fundraiser

-Sen. Lamar Alexander
-Rep. Marsha Blackburn
-Sen. Bob Corker
-Rep. John Duncan
-fmr. Rep. & ex-Gov. nominee Van Hillery
-Rep. Zach Wamp


-Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee

-fmr. Rep. & 2006 Dem Gov. nominee Chris Bell
-Rep. Charlie Gonzalez

-Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson

-Rep. Gene Green
-Rep. Silvestre Reyes

-Tom Hicks, Owner Texas Rangers
-T. Boone Pickens
-Patrick Oxford – Managing Partner of Bracewell & Giuliani, LLP
-Gov. Rick Perry
-Rep. Pete Sessions
-David Wallace – Mayor of Sugarland

-fmr. Rep. Tom DeLay
-Movie Actor Chuck Norris

-Rep. John Culberson
-Rep. Ralph Hall

-fmr. Sen. Phil Gramm
-James Huffiness: Chair Texas GOP
-fmr. Rep. Tom Loeffler
-fmr. Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher Sr.
-Lance Tarrance Jr. (strategist & pollster)

-Neil Bush – brother of the President
-Rep. Mike Conaway
-Bob Perry – primary financial backer of “Swift Boat Veterans”


-Rocky Anderson – Mayor of Salt Lake City

-Sen. Majority Leader Curtis Bramble
-Gov. Jon Huntsman
-Atty Gen Mark Shurtleff

-Senator Robert Bennett
-Jon Huntsman Sr. father of the Gov.


-Dick Cranwell: Virginia Democratic State Chair

Barack OBAMA
-Gov. Tim Kaine

-ex. Va. Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore
-Televangelist Pat Robertson

-Sen. John Warner

-Jay Sekulow: Chief Counsel American Center for Law and Justice
-Gary Marx: Dir. Judicial Confirmation Network
-fmr. Sen. George “Macaca” Allen


Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Adam Smith



-Rep. Tammy Baldwin
-Bill Broydrick – Fmr. St. Rep. Founder Broydrick & Associates
-Georgia Duerst-Lahti, Beloit College Professor, Commentator
-Dane Co., Executive Kathleen Falk
-Mathew Flynn – Fmr. State Chair Wis Dems
-Ambassador & Fmr. Majority Leader Tom Loftis
-Nancy Nussbaum – Fmr. Brown Co. Executive & Mayor of DePere
-Janis Ringhand – Fmr. Mayor of Evansville
-Teresa Villmain – long time Iowa Dem operative

-Dave Cieslewicz – Mayor of Madison
-Fmr. Gov. Tony Earl
-State Senator Jon Erpenbach
-State Senator Bob Jauch
-Dottie LeClair, 2nd Vice Chair Wi. Democratic Party
-State Senator John Lehman
-Rep. David Obey
-State Representative Sondy Pope-Roberts
-Dawn Marie Sass – Wi. State Treasurer
-State Representative Donna Seidel
-State Representative Mike Sheridan, UAW Local 95 President
-State Representative Jennifer Shilling
-State Representative David Travis, Fmr. Majority Leader
-State Representative Amy Sue Vruwink 
-Joseph Wineke – Democratic Party State Chair
-State Senator Bob Wirch

Barack OBAMA
-Rep. Gwen Moore

-Paul Maslin – pollster for Howard Dean

-fmr. Sen. Robert Kasten
-fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson
-Rick Wiley – ex-Executive Dir. Wi GOP

-Lawrence Eagleburger (Born in Milwaukee) fmr. Sec of State for BUSH I


-Elizabeth Cheney d/o VP Dick Cheney (is she from Wyoming?

District of Columbia

-Deborah Jeane Pelphrey – noted Madame

-Bill Wichterman – Religious Right political operative