Each 2006 pickup had a distinctive reason, almost like a category in an award show; so let’s rate them that way. The categories would be loss because of changing electorate (DeWine-OH), loss because of unpopular war despite personal popularity (Chafee-RI), Macaca moment (Allen-VA) corruption (Burns-MT), just plain unpopular (Santorum-PA), and battleground (McCaskill-MO). Who will lose for these reasons this time around, and why? Here are my ratings.
Unpopular: Sunnunu. Especially if Shaheen jumps in, but either way the guy keeps running to the right in a suddenly left state. He’s antagonistic, abrasive, and nothing like the traditional new England republican he needs to be if he wanted to have an ounce of a chance of winning.
Corruption: Ted Stevens. We finally have a chance to take the nut down, between the FBI raids, and corruption charges he’s going to be this cycle’s Burns. An incumbent who would have won easily without the corruption. Burns may have faced a more difficult than normal challenge even without the Abramoff connections, he would have still had a safe win, maybe 55-45. With Abramoff however, he’s out hunting buck, or screaming obscenities at his family, or whatever crazy old senators do when they lose.
Personal popularity: this is a toughie. Collins would seem like the obvious choice, seeing as how she’s quite popular (not Snowe popular) in a strong blue state. Still, she seems more like a Macaca moment senator to me. Gordon smith is moderately popular, but not chafee, nor is Oregon Rhode Island. I’d have to stick with collins, but that’s just me.
Changing electorate: Ohio was (is) in major political upheaval, as is Colorado. As it’s an open seat, it becomes even more likely that the state that is becoming rapidly more blue will give us a win similar to brown’s over dewine.
Macaca: these are hard to gauge, because they’re unpredictable. If anyone had asked last year who it would be, everyone would have said burns because of his history of making stupid remarks. For the moment I’ll say Coleman, but it might go to Mitch down in Kentucky, or collins may win both categories.
battleground: since Ohio and Missouri don’t have senate seats up this cycle, I’m going to say Oregon. While it’s not a bellwether, it’s been a swing state for most of the last elections.
These are just my opinions, please tell me what you think.