I'm feeling good about this one.

As if VA-05 and MD-01 weren't enough, I'll be thrilled to pick up this one next month. Sweet revenge for Cazayoux. Will this race be the cherry on top of it all or are there more to come? I can only hope.

BTW, anybody have an idea who's going after Vitter? I'd love to take that seat as well. I got to tell you, I think LA is moving away from us on the Presidential and local levels but we seem to do okay for Congress.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 15:17:25 PM CST

Cazayoux, rumour

is he's already starting to put together a team. I've also heard the Kennedy is considering challenging Vitter in the primary.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:58:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Words cannot describe

...how much I'd like to see Don be the one to take down that ignorant, sanctimonious little creep.

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by: JFM110 @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 17:07:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Let's See....

An accomplished state legislator who went to Congress, versus a guy who's idea of sexual roleplay involved dressing himself in a diaper being 'disciplined' by the hooker/'mommy.'

How could this even be a race if it ever came to being?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 18:27:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If Michael Jackson runs for senate as an Independant...

It would take a miracle from God to save his soul.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 18:37:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

O/T

You guys have an element on all of your pages that slows the load time down to molasses. It looks like the issue is with this:

http://networks.feedburner.com...

/OT

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by: andgarden @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 15:28:24 PM CST

Feeling Cautious

Don Cazayoux had the same numbers going into last Tuesday, and he lost by 8 points. The only solace I take is that this gentleman, Carmouche, isn't running against an Independent stealing votes from him.

I'm optimistic but cautious in a wait and see attitude.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 15:38:29 PM CST

As am I. (n/t)

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:06:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

After reflecting on last week's election results

I've come to conclude that there IS NO MORE Democratic "wave".

So we should stop thinking there is one.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:21:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Dominating factors = Strength of Candidate & $$$

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:30:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Every wave must end

Between 2006 and 2008 (including special elections) we gained the Presidency, 13-14 senate seats, about 55 house seats and a majority of Governorships and state legislatures.  The wave was nice while it lasted, but it had to end eventually.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:58:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

We just have to work that much harder to keep winning

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 17:16:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

One positive about LA-04 vs. LA-06

is it will be easier for Carmouche (if he wins the runoff) to survive redistricting since LA-04 is in the northwest corner of the state.

LA-02 (currently Jefferson), LA-03 (Melancon) and LA-06 are all bunched together in the New Orleans-Baton Rouge area. It would have been very difficult to draw 3 Dem districts in this region, especially since Louisiana is losing a seat in 2012.

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by: DCal @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 19:03:18 PM CST

Hopefully it's Cassidy

if their districts get melded together more or less I'd think Melancon would wipe the floor with him.

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by: skaje @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 19:54:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Would he still wipe the floor

if Michael Jackson were around?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 20:04:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

that's not an accurate representation

Melancon's district is in no way bunched up, with the others. Massive bayous and wetlands seperate, and it has a decidedly more unique and cajun culture, isolated traditionally from the rest of the state adn therefore from power. Melancon's district touches their "tiny" districts, but sprawls outward throughout south-central and south-west Louisiana. It would not be good or wise to gerrymander him with Cassidy. I see them eliminating LA-01 as it is now. The New Orleans area district would probably abosrb conservative and populous, St. Tammany Parish, (and still be fairly Democratic despite it), while Cassidy's district would absorb the other parishes while giving up Iberville and other Democratic parishes in the north of the district, as well as border parishes to Melancon in the south, who would probably also take a small share of a parish or two of LA-01. That would fix most of the population problems.

Though LA-04 could be redrawn horizontally to go across the state through Lincoln Parishes, and Ouachita and on to West and East Carrol. Then it would be substantially more conservative and would be a race between two incumbents, with roughly 50% of the current LA-04 and the current LA-05 in it. Though Democrats control the State senate, and it won't be changed up again until 2011, so the current configurations should be safe.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 20:23:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Melancon's district is completely unrelated

and independent of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Its dominated by cajun country.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 20:25:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]