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GA-Sen: Two More Polls Have Chambliss Ahead

by: DavidNYC

Mon Dec 01, 2008 at 10:36 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (11/29-30, likely voters, 11/22-23 in parens)

Jim Martin (D): 46 (46)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53 (52)
Undecided: 1 (2)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

Tom Jensen says:

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Not looking good. The other survey, from Insider Advantage, isn't looking much better (11/30, likely voters, 11/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (47)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)
Undecided: 4 (3)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Matt Towery of IA offers some succor:

The race could be a 10-point blowout for Chambliss, or under the right circumstances, a very tight contest. This is like trying to forecast snow in Georgia - almost impossible.

I'm not sanguine. Nine polls by five different pollsters have all given Chambliss the lead. Could they all be wrong, Alaska-style? Sure, but I wouldn't count on it.

DavidNYC :: GA-Sen: Two More Polls Have Chambliss Ahead
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I'd guess Martin has a 10% shot, at best
But hey, that's something.  

I doubt it's that high.
I've always maintained it was a win in the general or bust.  Hell, he didn't even get more votes than Chambliss in the general.  It would have to be a truly perfect storm for him to win.

[ Parent ]
I will NOT watch this race tomorrow night.
Being a Red Sox fan, when I watched the Sox in 2004, they lost three games against the Yankees.  Then I went to bed in the midst of the fourth, and they came back to win the ALCS championship and the World Series.

When I watched the specials in OH-05 and VA-01, neither of them panned out.

When I watched the special in MS-01, Childers narrowly missed a majority.

I missed watching LA-06, and we won that special handily.

I went crazy live-commenting here and in chat about the 2008 elections, and we won not 30, 40, or 50 House seats but only a measly 25 or so.  Well, granted, I followed 2006's MT-Sen and VA-Sen obsessively in the days following the election, but we'd already kinda won those.  WY-AL, OH-02, and NC-08 didn't pan out though (though we do now have NC-08).

So yeah, I'm just going to ignore the election tomorrow--or at least as much as a political junkie like myself can.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Darnit!
My not watching the election was not enough to put Martin over the top.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Martinez is not seeking re-election...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
Someone else should diary it, I'm busy and on the run.  

Mixed emotions
I do not like Martinez, but I believe the GOP has a better chance of keeping the Senate seat with Martinez not running.  I'm not sure which Repulicans will run, but IMO whomever wins the Republican primary would have a better chance that Martinez (except, for some crazy reason, a extremist runs like what happened in 2006).  

At the same time, there may be multiple GOPers leaving their house seat for a run for the Senate.  This might open up some opportunites for the Dems in the house.  Pure speculation.

39, male, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Florida AG McCollum will run
Count on it.  Whether he wins the primary is another story.  

[ Parent ]
I hope McCollum wins the primary
and goes down in flames in the GE.

39, male, NC-04

[ Parent ]

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