Saturday, October 28, 2006
Vote Vets Throws Down in Four Races
Posted by James L.By now you may have seen one of these new ads by VoteVets PAC, running against Republican congressmen Jon Porter (NV-03), John Doolittle (CA-04), Gil Gutknecht (MN-01) and John Sweeney (NY-20):
In terms of advertising effectiveness, VoteVets is giving more bang for the buck than any other PAC or party committee this year. Their much-hyped body armor ads against Senators Talent, Burns, Allen and Santorum were impaired only by their limited budgets: a $30k-$50k media buy doesn't exactly dominate the airwaves, especially in a state as large as Pennsylvania or Virginia. For this new series of ads, however, VoteVets has scored the funding to make big, serious buys that will have an impact in each of these districts:
• $98k against Gutknecht (MN-01)
• $136k against Sweeney (NY-20)
• $237k against Porter (NV-03)
As I understand it, the John Doolittle ad will be a narrower cable buy, but even still, it should penetrate deeper in a House race than the body armor ads did with limited statewide purchases in the Senate races.
Posted at 03:25 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Minnesota, Nevada, New York | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 16, 2006
AZ-05, CA-50, MN-02, NM-01: SUSA Shows Huge Movement for Democratic Challengers
Posted by James L.Survey USA has four hot new polls out today, each showing a signficant bump for Democratic challengers:
AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 45, Hayworth (R) 48
CA-50: Busby (D) 46, Bilbray (R) 49
MN-02: Rowley (DFL) 42, Kline (R) 50
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53, Wilson (R) 45
I'd put up trendlines, etc, but I'm pressed for time. Here's the money quote, though:
In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.
How crazy would it be if an underfunded, unnoticed Busby managed to knock out Bilbray the second time around? While I still think it's quite unlikely, with numbers like these, it all depends on base motivation. You go, girl!
Posted at 09:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona, California, Minnesota, New Mexico | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
CA-11: The NRCC is Nervous
Posted by James L.I'll let Say No To Pombo do the talking here:
The NRCC came into CA-11 back on August 3rd and dropped $16,275 on the table to finance polling for Richard Pombo. Then, a mere month later, they plunked down another $9,765 for a second round of Pombo polling. Now, I suspect that we’ll never know what that polling told them because they haven’t been in any hurry to release their findings publicly. But that omission probably tells us most of what we need to know about their results. And if there were any lingering suspicions, the NRCC’s subsequent actions have more than answered the question.Following the first poll, the NRCC paid out $1,477 to Marsh Copsey & Associates for issue ad production and $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers. After the second poll on 9/6, they made the following independent expenditures, all within a ten-day period:
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/13 — $38,385 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers.It’s worth noting that all of these expenditures have been identified for FEC purposes as being made in opposition to Jerry McNerney. That means the voters of CA-11 are going to be barraged with several more rounds of anti-McNerney advertising. It’s telling that even the NRCC can’t seem to find much good to say about Richard Pombo and his record in Congress. Instead, they have to content themselves with lying about Jerry McNerney.
Taken in total, that’s $250,762 in negative mailers paid for by the NRCC on behalf of Richard Pombo in just the last two weeks. Together with the polling, that means they’ve spent $276,802 in CA-11 in the last six weeks. You simply can’t convince me that Richard Pombo and the Republican Party aren’t deeply worried about the outcome of this race.
You can't convince me otherwise, either. The NRCC wouldn't drop over a quarter of a million dollars on this seat if McNerney wasn't threatening Pombo in their internal polls (which we'll never see, like a lot of Republican internal polls, because the results are embarrassing). Pombo, as you may recall, was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, and his heinous record on environmental issues have caused environmental groups and PACs to single him out for special punishment this year. Pombo is being challenged by netroots candidate Jerry McNerney, a man of integrity and a renewable energy expert--the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued district. The DCCC has sat on the sidelines since their preferred candidate, pilot Steve Filson, lost the primary. On Monday, they finally made the move to add McNerney to a slate of fifteen "Emerging Races", a program that will help deliver some fundraising for unusually strong challengers in reddish seats.
Bowers is right, though: McNerney deserves the full Red-to-Blue Program treatment here. That the NRCC would dump $250,000 in support of an incumbent whose fundraising has been very strong this cycle is eye-opening. The DCCC's "Emerging Races" treatment of McNerney is a positive step, but I'd say that he deserves the whole enchilada.
If you'd like to help Jerry McNerney apply more heat to Richard Pombo, give him some well-deserved help here.
Posted at 05:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, September 08, 2006
CA-11: Pulling a Pombo, Pt. II
Posted by James L.The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund is back on the air with two new ads targeting corrupt incumbent Republican congressman Richard Pombo. The first one is entitled "George":
The second one is called "Abe":
Quirky, to be sure. You can view the first round of anti-Pombo ads aired by the DWAF here. I'm not sure if this second round of ads will be anymore effective than the first, but since the DCCC is looking elsewhere this fall, netroots candidate Jerry McNerney will need all the help he can get on the air this fall.
Posted at 02:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Netroots August Fundraising Push: Support Jerry McNerney
Posted by James L.
As the August combined Netroots fundraising push kicks into gear, it's time that we look back upon each of the Netroots-endorsed challengers and remind ourselves why their fight is worthy of our resources and attention this fall. Let's start with CA-11 challenger, Jerry McNerney.
McNerney is in the unique position of being endorsed by BOTH of his opponent's Republican primary challengers (including former Rep. Pete McCloskey, author of the Endangered Species Act), and being on the receiving end of major assistance from local and national environmental groups who are scrambling to defeat the incumbent, Richard Pombo. Pombo was made infamous for using taxpayer's money to go on a family vacation to various national parks--and then turning around and proposing the sale of these national parks to the same developers who supported his campaigns.
McNerney, on the other hand, is a true progressive champion, and as a former CEO of a wind power company, he would be an invaluable voice in the next Congress for renewable and alternative energy policies. If McNerney could catch the eye of the DCCC with the help of a strong netroots and grassroots push, Pombo would be facing a perfect storm against him this November.
Please support Jerry McNerney and the Netroots candidates today.
Posted at 02:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Fundraising, Netroots | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, August 19, 2006
CA-11: Pulling a Pombo
Posted by James L.Not content to let uber-corrupt anti-environmentalist Richard Pombo off the hook without a major air war, the Wildlife Action Fund has stepped up to the plate in CA-11 with two new TV ads.
"The Office":
"The Principal":
It would be great if Netroots candidate Jerry McNerney could augment these ads with some biographical/contrast spots of his own to really seal the deal. Barbara Boxer is hosting a fundraiser for him on the 25th, so hopefully Jerry will have the necessary resources to get on the air.
Posted at 03:20 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
CA-11: McCloskey (R) Endorses McNerney (D)
Posted by James L.Maverick former GOP Rep. Pete McCloskey took on his party's establishment -- and lost. But he's not done yet.McCloskey, 78, failed in his primary challenge to Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Calif., chairman of the powerful House Resources Committee. Now he's planning to urge Northern California voters who backed him to support Pombo's Democratic opponent, wind engineer Jerry McNerney, in November.
In June, McCloskey won 32 percent of the Republican primary vote to 62 percent for Pombo.
McNerney is "an honorable man that has not and will not seek to enrich himself and his family through his office," McCloskey said in an interview.
So how much of that 32% will swing to McNerney?
Posted at 01:36 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, June 19, 2006
Why Can't California Be More Like Montana?
Posted by DavidNYCMontana:
Montana Democrats Barnstorm for UnityAfter what could have turned into a divisive primary election, Montana Democrats rallied in four cities Friday to show that the state the party is united behind Jon Tester in what promises to be a no-holds-barred U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Conrad Burns this fall.
California:
Tension Builds Between L.A. Mayor, AngelidesTension between Antonio Villaraigosa and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides surfaced Friday as the Los Angeles mayor declined to say whether he backed his own party's candidate to unseat Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
It looks to me like Dems in Cali are living up an old credo: They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. All I can say is, someone better bash a few heads in over on the left coast before Angelides and Villaraigosa give the media any more fodder for one of their favorite evergreens, "Dems in Disarray." Maybe we should send Brian Schweitzer over there to whoop some ass.
Posted at 03:29 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, California, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 08, 2006
CA-50: Another Look
Posted by James L.[UPDATE (David): As a courtesy to readers of the Swing State Project, Charlie Cook has graciously made Amy Walter's column freely available.]
Was Francine Busby's loss in CA-50 a sign of a Democratic base problem? We mulled over it a bit in my post-mortem, but the best summary of this lament came from Markos:
Well, it seems everything I've been saying for the last few months came to happen.1) Democrats are not motivated to turn out. Sure, Busby exceeded Kerry's 43 percent he got in the district in 2004, but not by much. She got 45.46%. If the "culture of corruption" message was enough to bring people out to vote Democratic, this would be the place to do it. This is Duke Cunningham territory, he of the million dollar mansions, yachts, and hookers. Regardless, district voters sent a lobbyist back to Washington to represent them.
2) 2006 will be a base election -- the party that wins is the party that gets more pf its partisans to the polls. Busby worked hard to win the independent vote. And like Kerry in 2004, she probably won it. But it does no good when the other side gets more of its voters out to the polls. And a milquetoast campaign that hides partisan divisions and stresses "competence" will not inspire our partisans to come out and vote. The Republicans, on the other hand, made sure to rile up their base. Busby helped with her unfortunate comments that were so easily twisted out of context by the right wing noise machine, but they'll do that to every single one of our candidates. [Emphasis added]
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report has another take:
But, as we had written from the very beginning, Busby could not win simply by getting her voters to the polls. The Democratic base in this heavily Republican district makes up just 44-45 percent of the vote. To win, she needed Republican voters to either stay home or to vote for one of the third party candidates. Busby even ran advertising encouraging conservative Republicans to support William Griffith.[...]
Pre-eminent congressional scholar Gary Jacobson of the University of California San Diego notes that Busby actually did better than simply win the Democratic vote. She also got a bigger share of independents. Busby got 55,587 votes in the special election, almost 10,000 more votes than were cast in the Democratic primary (45,868). The special election and the regular primary were held on the same day. Bilbray, meanwhile, took 60,319 votes in the run-off election, while 59,195 votes were cast in the Republican primary. "Without too great an inferential leap," writes Jacobson, "we could conclude that Bilbray got the Republicans, Busby got the Democrats and a disproportionate share of the rest--just not enough to win."
Furthermore, notes Jacobson, when looking at party registration figures, it is clear that Democrats were more energized than Republicans. Bilbray's vote, he notes, was 38.6 percent of the number of Republican registrants, Busby's was 52.7 percent of the number of Democratic registrants. Based on the primary election vote, he notes, Democratic turnout was 43.8 percent, while Republican turnout was 37.8 percent. [Emphasis added]
So, after all that hubbub about Bilbray supposedly capturing the hearts and minds of progressives, it turns out that base motivation wasn't the problem at all here. The problem was, simply, that there just weren't enough damn Democrats in the district to mobilize in the first place. Given the huge amount the NRCC spent on Bilbray, and the RNC's much-vaunted 72-hour GOTV field operation in the district (a sign of smart strategy, not desperation), the Busby campaign did a pretty good job to get our side to the polls. As Walters contends, Republican incumbents in tight races shouldn't greet the CA-50 results with a sigh of relief:
So what's the bottom line lesson here? While a loss would have been disastrous for the Republicans, a win does not suggest that they are going to have an easy time this fall. In more marginal districts with stronger Democratic candidates and/or weakened Republican candidates, the political environment is certainly enough of a factor to take a toll. It's clear that Bilbray was unable to get the "soft" Republican voters that have traditionally broken for Republicans in the past, but in this heavily Republican district, he could afford to lose these voters. Republican incumbents who sit in more marginal districts do not have that luxury. For them, even a two or three point dip in turn-out could be politically fatal.
Posted at 11:38 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (36) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
CA-50 Post-Mortem Open Thread
Posted by James L.So, what can we read from these results? In CA-50, depending on who you talk to, this was either a sign of great things to come, or another dismal failure by a Democratic campaign to mobilize the base. There are even those who postulate that the Republicans could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat this November by putting a greater distance between themselves and Bush on immigration, like Bilbray did, as opposed to trademark Democratic caution and moderation on the issue. Wherever you look on the blogosphere, it seems that there's another spin on the issue.
There were lots of outside factors that prejudiced Busby's campaign at the polls yesterday--an off-putting, nasty Gubernatorial primary that likely did not help turn out many base voters in the district, the goofy 'papers' comment (quite a shock considering how disciplined and professional Busby has been as a messenger during this campaign)--but if we're going to be reading CA-50's tea leaves as a sign of things to come, I think we should all be a little more cautious of our expectations for this November. The GOP has thrown a huge monkey wrench in the form of Immigration into the Democrats' 2006 strategy, and it's unclear yet how the Democrats plan to manage the issue. Personal opinions aside--and I'm extremely liberal on the issue, so it's probably a good thing that I'm not in charge of Democratic policymaking--the Democrats better find a way not to end up on the wrong side of a voter backlash on immigration woes.
There's another take on this, though, and that's the Busby campaign's failure to fire up their base. I'm inclined to agree with this assessment--when I saw a plea by Busby on the DCCC blog on the 11th hour of race, saying that they needed 100 more volunteers to execute their ground game effectively, I knew that this was gonna be rough. If the Busby campaign was more effective at firing up the base, they would have had more than 300 volunteers for their election-day ground game and wouldn't have needed that last-minute plea.
Also frustrating was the continued Republican dominance in early voting. To be fair, the Busby campaign did a great job in narrowing the traditional gap between Democratic and Republican absentee votes, but why the heck do Republicans always come out on top? The Democratic machine from state-to-state and district-to-district is going to have to seriously overhaul their absentee voting strategy--or maybe even get one, in the first place.
So I turn the floor to our readers. What went wrong in CA-50? What lessons should we take from this? Or maybe you're of the opinion that this was a pretty decent result; afterall, the NRCC was forced to dump a cool $5 million into a ruby red district, while the DCCC only kissed $2.5 million goodbye.
Posted at 01:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Chris Bowers Is an Insomniac
Posted by James L.Alright, I'm heading to bed. Workdays that start at 8am tend to have this effect on me at midnight (fabulous Mountain Time). Until then, to fix your agonizing need for CA-50 updates and analysis, head on over to MyDD, where eternal nocturnal Chris Bowers is on a mission to see this through until the bitter end. Dude must be hooked up to an IV of caffeine.
UPDATE (DavidNYC): Okay. With 46.4% of the vote in, this is how I see things:
• If there is 40% turnout, Busby needs 55.22% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 49.26% to reach 47%• If there is 35% turnout, Busby needs 56.94% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 50.01% to reach 47%
• If there is 30% turnout, Busby needs 60.36% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 51.49% to reach 47%
I include the 47% figure because I think that's about the minimum total Busby could win with. No matter what, she needs to run well ahead of where she's run so far in order to pull this one off. I don't know what primary turnout is usually like in CA - anyone have any numbers?
Anyhow, don't forget that no matter what the outcome, there will still be a Busby-Bilbray rematch in November, and Francine will still need our help.
Posted at 01:56 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
California Results Open Thread
Posted by RBHCA-GOV: 4.3% 13% 35.2% of precincts reporting
Phil Angelides (D):217,622 (48.7%) 353,474 (47.2%)523,260 (47.5%)
Steve Westly (D):191,764 (43%) 327,723 (43.8%)479,833 (43.6%)
CA-50 (To fill the unexpired term): 11% 35.2% reporting
Francine Busby (D):17,329 (43%)27,383 (44.4%)
Brian Bilbray (R):20,448 (50%)30,683 (49.8%)
All of the U.S. Congress Primaries in California
CA-50 (GOP Primary for the November election): 11.4% 35.6% of precincts reporting
Brian Bilbray (R):11,071 (52.9%)16,712 (54.6%)
Eric Roach (R):3,347 (16%)4,486 (14.6%)
CA-04, 11.5% 38.4% 75.3% of Precincts reporting:
John Doolittle (R):14,054 (63.2%) 25,323 (63.7%)44,244 (65.9%)
John Holmes (R):8,186 (37.1%) 14,442 (36.3%)22,981 (34.1%)
Charles Brown (D):5,346 (46.3%) 10,534 (47.1%)18,466 (46.3%)
Lisa Rea (D):3,641 (31.6%) 7,103 (31.7%)13,127 (32.9%)
Michael Hamersley (D):3,563 (22.1%) 4,773 (21.2%)8,334 (20.8%)
CA-06: 22% 42% of precincts reporting:
Lynn Woolsey (D):31,997 (65.5%) 38,656 (65.7%)45,339 (65.5%)
Joe Nation (D):16,913 (34.5%) 20,244 (34.3%)23,895 (34.5%)
CA-11: 0.8% 11.7% of precincts reporting:
Jerry McNerney (D):4143 (56.5%)9415 (52.6%)
Steve Filson (D):2044 (27.9%)5210 (29%)
Richard Pombo (R):5269 (55.4%)14,779 (61.9%)
Pete McCloskey (R):3584 (37.6%)7616 (31.9%)
CA-24: 10.5% 44.6% of precincts reporting:
Elton Gallegly (R):5,609 (81.3%)17,463 (80.8%)
Michael Tenenbaum (R):1,292 (18.7%)4,160 (19.2%)
Mark this one down for Gallegly in a landslide. Democratic nominee Jill Martinez has 10,703 votes so far running unopposed.
CA-36: 0% 36.3% of precincts reporting:
Jane Harman (D):5,981 (69.5%)13,621 (65%)
Marcy Winograd (D):2,629 (30.5%)7,353 (35%)
CA-51: 8.1% of precincts reporting:
Bob Filner (D): 4,336 (53.9%)
Juan Vargas (D): 3,329 (41.4%)
Posted at 12:04 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
California and Montana Predictions Open Thread
Posted by James L.Polls close in under a half hour in these two states Montana, so take a breath and hit me with your best shot. Of course, like Stoller, I'm not going to make any predictions (though I do have a few things rumbling around in my gut besides the stuffed peppers I'm digesting). I don't want to slant your guesses, but the NRCC is sounding pretty confident, according to the Hotline:
NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds (NY) said earlier today that, based on an analysis of absentee returns in CA 50, ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) held about a 10K vote lead. Reynolds added, however, that he wouldn’t make any predictions at this early stage.
Posted at 09:32 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Montana | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, June 02, 2006
CA-50: SUSA Poll Shows Narrow Lead for Bilbray
Posted by DavidNYCSUSA just released what I imagine will be their final poll in CA-50 (likely voters, early May in parens):
Busby: 45 (45)
Bilbray: 47 (45)
Other: 9 (9)
Undecided: 0 (1)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Bilbray's bump accounts for a better showing among independents: Busby previously led among that group by 54-19. Now it's down to 56-31. Given the negativity of the campaign, I'm surprised that Bilbray jumped 12 points among indies, who (at least CW tells us) are the kinds of voters most likely to be turned off by negative campaigning. Then again, most indies actually do identify with a particular party - there are very few "true" independents. So these might just be slightly hesitant Republicans coming home to roost.
SUSA also makes the following observation:
Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.
I never like it when we have to rely on young voters turning out. It just never happens. What I don't understand, though, is why young people have flocked to Busby in the last month, while older folks have turned toward Bilbray. In the previous SUSA poll, all four age brackets were pretty evenly divided between both candidates. Any thoughts?
Stepping back a bit, I'm not sure that any poll this late in the game will tell us anything we didn't already know in such a close race. It's going to be a nailbiter no matter what. I will say this, though: If Busby loses in a squeaker, the tradmed will talk about how Dems "failed to capitalize" on all manner of GOP sins and flaws. But this storyline will miss an important point: If Democrats across the map improve over their baselines as much as Busby has in CA-50, we will do quite well in November.
But as far as June 6th goes, I'm not making any predictions, except to say that this one is gonna be close - darn close.
(Thanks to AnthonyLA.)
Posted at 09:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: Get-Out-The-Vote for Busby
Posted by DavidNYCUPDATE (2): MoveOn is indeed doing virtual phone-banking once again, just like it did with the April special primary. Go here to sign up. If you weren't able to get involved with the DCCC's phone-banking program, this is a great alternative. The minimum commitment should take you less than an hour, but of course, you can always do more.
UPDATE: Thanks to the fantastic response from readers of this site, the DCCC now is booked solid with volunteers. If I get any information from the Busby campaign about virtual phone banking, I will be sure to post it. In the meantime, please sign up on Busby's volunteer page - remember, if she wins on Tuesday, she still needs to win again in November and will need our help once more.
This, as they say, is it, folks. If you live anywhere remotely near CA-50, please, please, I implore you: Spend a few hours between now and election day helping out Francine Busby.
GOTV June 3rd-6thSaturday June 3rd, Sunday June 4th & Monday June 5th
Door Hangers 10am-8pm
(Shifts beginning at 10am, 1pm & 4pm)Election Day June 6th
Precinct Poll Checks
6:00am-9am Door Hangers
9:30am-8pm Precinct Poll Walks
(Shifts beginning at 9:30am, 12pm & 4pm)Canvass Locations:
Coastal Canvass
Headline Graphics Parking Lot
131 Aberdeen Drive
Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
(760) 436-0133Southern Canvass
Carpenter's Hall
8595 Miralani Drive, Suite A
San Diego, Ca 92123Northern Canvass
CWA Escondido Union Hall
1525 Simpson Way
Escondido, Ca 92029Phone Bank Locations:
Coastal Phone Bank:
Busby Cardiff Office
2121 Newcastle Avenue
Cardiff By The Sea, Ca 92007
(760) 479-0114Northern Phone Banks:
CWA Escondido Union Hall
1525 Simpson Way
Escondido, Ca 92029Nava Residence
858 Calle Montera
Escondido, Ca 9202RSVP to volunteer@busbyforcongress.org
Or call (760) 479-0114
SPECIAL NOTE TO DC-AREA RESIDENTS:
The DCCC is looking for DC-area based volunteers to make calls to San Diego Democrats on Monday evening and all day Tuesday.To sign up for Monday and/or Tuesday, contact our Assistant to the Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Lewis, at lewis@dccc.org, or call (202) 741-1881.
Let's do this thing!
Posted at 01:10 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, June 01, 2006
CA-50: Wah Wah Wah... Wipeout!
Posted by James L.San Diego professor of Political Science Carl Luna, writing for the S.D. Union-Tribune, has a great breakdown on why surfer-turned-lobbyist-turned-Congressional candidate Brian Bilbray is facing a gnarly nightmare at the polls next Tuesday. Read it; it's a fun article, but for those without the time, here's the SparkNotes version of Bilbray's bind:
1) He was bruised by a divisive, expensive, and crowded primary.
2) His career as a lobbyist has only left him all the more vulnerable to anti-corruption broadsides.
3) Busby's lack of meaningful primary opposition has allowed her to pursue a message of competence, moderation and good governance over anything particularly ideological, while Bilbray has been caught-up in the Republican primary crowd's rush to out-right each other.
4) He has the charisma of "Nixon in a speedo".
5) His defeated conservative primary opponents have not rallied around him, and instead are STILL challenging Bilbray on the June 6 primary ballot--hurting Bilbray's appeal among conservatives.
6) His hard-right tack on immigration may end up pleasing no one--it will turn off moderates while leaving conservatives unconvinced.
7) He's tainted by horrid approval numbers for the President and the Republican Congress.
8) The NRCC's campaign ads which allege that Busby is "soft on pedophiles" have the potential for significant backlash votes.
9) In the last week of the campaign, Dick Cheney--not exactly the popular, cuddly face of the Republican Party--enthusiastically (I use the term loosely) stumped for Bilbray while John McCain, still the hero to moderate and independent Republicans, sapped Bilbray's momentum by boycotting a scheduled fundraiser after he started to slap around Busby for supporting McCain's immigration plan. This isn't the way you make friends and influence people, bro.
But for all his woes, Luna's convinced that the McCain snub will really be Bilbray's undoing:
Bottom line. Bilbray’s being jilted at the fund raising alter by that darling of the middle (or, is it the darling of the muddled?) John “Man For All Seasons, Audiences, People and Voters” McCain may well prove to have been the final pounder of Bilbray’s political surfing hopes. McCain’s boycott is a blazing sign to moderates and independents that Bilbray just ain’t their dude.Up through last week my bet was Bilbray by 2%. Given the way things are breaking, I now have to go Busby by a nose. Or, in surferese, by a toe on the nose.
It'll be a tight one, but it looks increasingly possible that Francine Busby can pull this one off.
(Thanks to Predictor for the tip.)
PS: Busby really seems to be hitching her wagon to Sen. McCain in order to innoculate herself against Bilbray's attacks, as seen in her ad entitled "It's Not Amnesty". A brilliant strategy in a ruby red district or unnerving McCain-boosting? Both, maybe.
UPDATE: Dailykos diarist dengre has an excellent diary up detailing the links between Brian Bilbray and Jack Abramoff.
Posted at 12:05 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
CA-50: "Maverick" John McCain Cancels Bilbray Fundraiser
Posted by James L.From the Associated Press, comes word of "maverick" Sen. John McCain sticking fast to his ideals and not being pushed around by his extremist peers in the Republican Party:
Arizona Sen. John McCain on Tuesday canceled an appearance for a Republican congressional candidate who has attacked his opponent for supporting McCain's immigration bill.McCain, R-Ariz., was scheduled to speak Wednesday at a breakfast fundraiser for Brian Bilbray, who is locked in a close runoff race with Democrat Francine Busby for the San Diego-area seat left vacant by disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham. The event was expected to raise at least $65,000.
So Bilbray smacks Busby for supporting one of McCain's policies. That's surely enough for our favorite straight-talking "maverick" to stay true to his principles and rescind his endorsement of Bilbray, right? Right? Erm, maybe not:
In an e-mail sent to the Bilbray campaign, McCain spokesman Craig Goldman acknowledged that McCain and Bilbray "disagree on some of the issues related to immigration reform." He said McCain did not want his appearance to distract from Bilbray's campaign.The e-mail reiterated McCain's endorsement of Bilbray, and said the senator's Straight Talk America political action committee would make the maximum allowable contribution of $5,000 to Bilbray's campaign. Goldman did not return phone and e-mail messages left seeking comment.
Pathetic. But oh well; at least it's one more momentum-sapping headline for Brian Bilbray.
Posted at 09:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Monday, May 29, 2006
The Week Ahead in California and Montana
Posted by James L.We have a number of hot races to look forward to next Tuesday, June 6 in California, and my neighbor state Montana. Here's a run-down on what to watch:
CA-50: Busby's all-out battle to steal this open seat from the Republicans will be, without a doubt, the premier event of the night--and the Republicans are on edge:
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
CA-42: If you live in the 42nd district of California (see a map here) or know anyone who does, and you'd like to have the chance to get a Democrat on the ballot this November, you'll have to write in the name of Mark Hull-Richter on the ballot. House Race guru BENAWU has the lowdown. Hull-Richter is gonna need to come up with 2641 write-in votes. That's a huge hill to climb, but it's worth a shot. Afterall, under-the-radar write-in campaigns allowed Democrats to field candidates in previously uncontested races in PA-09 & PA-15.
CA-36: Anti-war activist Marcy Winograd is challenging Rep. Jane Harman, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. From the L.A. Times:
In sum, Winograd casts her opponent as a Bush Democrat who was too slow to challenge the president on the war, one who moved left only when challenged in the campaign. Winograd could only have been delighted when restless House liberals complained of the same thing in the early jockeying for position in next year's Congress, lobbying to have Harman replaced as the party's voice on the Intelligence Committee.I'm not sure if Winograd has the necessary organization to pull of an upset, but her primary challenge has at least forced Harman to prove her progressive bona fides.
CA-11: Netroots favorite and '04 nominee Jerry McNerney vs. DCCC-favored Steve Filson. The winner will take on scandalized Republican Richard Pombo (he himself is facing a primary challenge from Pete McCloskey, a 78 year-old former Congressman who authored the Endangered Species Act). I don't have a dog in this race.
CA-06: In many ways this is the opposite of CA-36. Incumbent Rep. Diane Lynn Woolsey is one of the most liberal members of Congress, and her challenge is coming from the right:
Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey faces a challenge from Assembly member Joe Nation -- her first significant primary contest in more than a decade for the district representing Marin and much of Sonoma counties. Woolsey, elected in 1992, prides herself as being one of the House's most liberal members, attacking the war in Iraq, promoting alternative energy sources, and fighting cuts in health and education spending. Nation, a popular local politician and former economics professor, pitches himself as more moderate and pro-business. He touts his work in the Legislature to push for alternative fuels and his opposition to building a new Death Row at San Quentin Prison in Marin.
MT-Sen: Another huge one to watch. Likeable progressive Jon Tester has got his mojo working and the perceived front-runner, state Auditor John Morrison, has seen his fundraising dip and some of his support shift to the Tester camp in the wake of an extramarital/conflict of interest scandal. Both are still polling ahead of the uber-corrupt Conrad Burns, but it's Tester that has the buzz in this last final stretch. Will it be enough to clinch the nomination? This one will be a nail-biter.
Anything I missed? Consider this a CA and MT-Sen open thread. Have at it.
P.S.: Obviously, I left out the contentious Angelides-Westly battle for the Democratic Nomination for Governor against Schwarzeneggar. The mud-slinging is pretty off-putting in this race, and I'm not inclined to blog much about it other than I hope that the battle will be one more factor to help energize Democratic turn-out in CA-50. But Angelides and Westly fans are more than welcome to duke it out in the comments section.
Posted at 05:18 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, May 18, 2006
CA-50: Is Brian Bilbray's Candidacy Illegal?
Posted by James L.Democrats in CA-50 dropped a bombshell on Wednesday, charging that Brian Bilbray, the Republican candidate to replace disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham in the June 6th special election, does not live in the district. Bilbray claims that he and his wife live with his mother in Carlsbad, which is within CA-50. However, local Democrats, including North County Party Chair Jess Durfee, have uncovered documents which indicate otherwise:
Virginia property records show Bilbray claims a home in Alexandria, Va., as his primary residence, for tax purposes.
Oops.
Even Bilbray's neighbors think otherwise:
Neighbors told 10News they rarely ever see Bilbray at the house, which is his mother’s home.“He comes here occasionally to see his mother like boys will do, but he doesn't live here,” said neighbor Frank Knudsen.
“If he does live here, he must leave late at night and come back early in the morning,” said neighbor Bill Rider.
Another man, who lives right next door, said he wondered when people would catch on that Bilbray does not live here.
Whatever the case, his ambiguous legal residency fits nicely into the DCCC's efforts to paint Bilbray as a representative of DC-centric lobbyists rather than the 50th CD. Going into the home stretch, Democrat Francine Busby has got to be pleased with this break.
UPDATE (DavidNYC): Rick Hasen writes in to say that CA can't impose a residency requirement stricter than that found in the Constitution, which mandates only that a candidate be a resident at the time of election. Hence, he thinks there is nothing illegal about Bilbray's candidacy.
Posted at 02:15 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
CA-50: Busby and Bilbray Tied
Posted by DavidNYCSUSA's being very, very good to us today (likely voters, no trendlines):
Busby: 45
Bilbray: 45
Other: 9
Undecided: 1
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Among Dems, Busby is doing a terrific job - she holds them at a rate of 92-3. (Wow!) Meanwhile, Bilbray holds Republicans by 82-12. Of course, there are many more Republicans in this district, so Busby makes up the difference by obliterating Bilbray with indies, 54-19.
Perhaps the fears of conservatives are bearing fruit: Only 80% of Eric Roach's supported now back Bilbray. We're only talking a couple percent of the overall vote (at most), but that could provide a crucial difference. Busby also steals more votes from Roach & all the other 4/11 candidates than Bilbray does from her (not too surprisingly).
But on the flip-side, I find it troublesome that Bilbray leads among likely voters who did not vote in the 4/11 special, 54-35. According to SUSA, this group makes up 20% of the likely 6/6 voters. I don't know why Bilbray should be doing better among these "new" voters, though I imagine the underlying demographics of the district are at least partly to blame (ie, you expand the pool of voters, you're likely to be including more Republicans).
What concerns me most is that 9% "other". I imagine most of these people are carrying a torch for Roach and the other Republicans whose names are still on the 6/6 ballot. In other words, if anyone can win over that remaining chunk, it's more likely going to be Bilbray rather than Busby. But if those 9% insist on voting for a sure loser, the Busby might be able to pull this one out in the end.
Posted at 09:33 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, May 08, 2006
CA-50: Roach Is Out
Posted by DavidNYCA conservative website is reporting that Eric Roach will not run in the GOP primary against Brian Bilbray. While this might seem like bad news for us, I think it's possible that, had Roach won, he would have driven up turnout among conservatives. These additional voters could have split their tickets between Bilbray (in the special) and Roach (in the primary). Now, at least, we can hope that "true conservatives" stay home because they can't bear the thought of pulling the lever for "liberal" Brian Bilbray. (Confused? As Glen Greenwald has explained in detail, anyone who strays from Bushist orthodoxy even for a moment becomes a liberal in the eyes of movement conservatives.)
If my talk of "ticket splitting" makes no sense and you need a backgrounder on what's going on with the wacky June 6th election, try clicking here.
Posted at 02:59 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
CA-50: Loser Roach Still Running Radio Ads
Posted by DavidNYCMost people shut down their campaign operations when they lose an election. But not millionaire self-funder Eric Roach:
Businessman Eric Roach may have narrowly lost the 50th District congressional special election, but he hasn't stopped running radio spots. One that will begin on several stations today thanks his supporters and urges them to “stay engaged.”The ad is sure to fuel more speculation about whether Roach will challenge Congressman-turned-lobbyist Brian Bilbray in June's primary election, which is the same day as the 50th District runoff. Stan Devereux, Roach's communications director, said Roach would make the decision within a few weeks.
“It was important for Eric to thank the supporters and volunteers who worked hard to elect a conservative to Congress,” Devereux said. “And I'm sure they will be waiting to hear Eric's decision.”
I explained the craziness surrounding the possible June 6th primary in this earlier post. As far as a Roach challenge goes, my fingers are crossed, knock wood, don't walk under any ladders, and all of that!
Posted at 05:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, April 13, 2006
CA-50: Republicans Fracturing?
Posted by DavidNYCEven before Brian Bilbray appeared to clinch a narrow victory Tuesday over 13 other Republican rivals to run against Democrat Francine Busby in eight short weeks to replace disgraced former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, supporters called on the field to "unite" behind Bilbray's candidacy.But a day later, it appeared that unity could be slow in coming.
Eric Roach, Bilbray's nearest Republican rival, said Wednesday through campaign managers that he might ask for a recount of votes cast in the sprawling 50th District ---- a move that would delay Republican solidarity in the weeks of campaigning left before June 6.
If the final tally is especially close - as I'm sure it will be - Roach might even challenge Bilbray in the Republican primary in June. Wait, did I just say "Republican primary?" I must be crazy, right? Actually, no - it's not me who's crazy. It's the California electoral system.
Turns out there are actually two ballots in the June 6th run-off. One is the special "general" election ballot - Busby vs. (as of right now) Bilbray. Whoever wins that becomes a member of Congress immediately. However, it's a brief tenure - there's another general election in November. The candidates on that ballot will be determined by the second of the two June 6th ballots, which constitutes a primary election for the November general election. Confusing, I know.
But the bottom line is this: Bilbray, say, could conceivably beat Busby in June but lose to Roach on the same day. Or vice-versa, if Roach emerges victorious after a recount of Tuesday's vote. Even if something that absurd doesn't come to pass, the very possibility of the GOP duking it out once again warms the cockles of my heart - and it would undoubtedly make Francine Busby's life much easier.
P.S. Stuart O'Neill has a hugely important post up at Political Dogfight about the enormous importance of absentee ballots. In states with generous absentee ballot provisions, this is now where battles are lost and won. A huge percentage of the voter "turnout" on Tuesday actually came in the form of absentee ballots. Please read Stuart's post, because it has wide application - far beyond just Busby's race.
Posted at 05:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
CA-50: Post Mortem
Posted by DavidNYCWe all know the results of last night's election. This of course means we have a run-off scheduled for June 6th. I'd love to do a full post-mortem right now, and I definitely have plenty of thoughts. Unfortunately, I'm in the middle of preparing for our Passover seder tonight so I just don't have the time. However, I am sure all the usual suspects (MyDD, Kos, Hotline, CQ, etc.) have a lot to say, so go check `em out.
And to everyone observing the holiday tonight, chag sameach.
Posted at 02:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
CA-50: Election Results Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCPolls close in just a few minutes. However, as is usually the case, we probably won't have results for a while - perhaps not for an hour-and-a-half.
Results: SD County | SD Union Tribune | North Country Times
Christine Pelosi will be updating live from Busby HQ at Trail Mix. And Chris Bowers has promised to follow the results into the wee hours, if necessary, over at MyDD. As for me, I'll obviously be keeping a close eye, but tonight won't be a repeat performance of the Tracy-and-David tag-team duo for TX-28 - there's only so many frenetic "live bloggings" one can do in a lifetime.
UPDATE: Gah! Hard to resist the siren lure of live blogging. Results for early voting are in, showing Busby with 42% and Bilbray and Roach neck-and-neck at 14%. These might be the only results we see for a while. But if Busby is to reach 50%, she seriously has her work cut out for her. So far, 64,715 ballots have been cast. There are 360K RVs in the district, so that's an 18% turnout. I've put together a chart which shows how much of the remaining votes Busby would need, depending upon possible election-day turnouts:
If 20% turnout, 119% of election-day vote (ie, impossible)
If 25%, 70%
If 30%, 62%
If 35%, 58%
If 40%, 56%
You may want to check my math, but I think that's what it looks like. By way of comparison, Steve Young won only 25% of the early vote but won 35% of the election-day vote in the CA-48 special run-off. So large spreads are indeed possible, but, as you may recall, the configuration of that election was very unusual and rather different from what we've got today.
UPDATE: I'm headed to bed. This race seems likely headed for a run-off. But even if Busby were to win tonight, she'd still face another election in November. So please consider helping her out - she'll need it no matter what happens tonight.
Posted at 11:10 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCToday's the day.
• SUSA just released a new poll putting Busby at 47%. An outright victory could just happen, but the pessimist (realist?) in me thinks a finish in the 40s is more likely.• Chris Bowers has a detailed post here, titled "What To Look For In CA-50 Tonight." He explores his predictions and the shape of the GOP field.
• Polls close at 8pm Pacific (11pm Eastern). Sign On San Diego, the official site of the SD Union Tribune, says it will carry live results, but they haven't posted a specific link yet. If you know of any other sites which will carry live results, please post them in comments.
Please use this thread to discuss any and everything pertaining to today's election. Go Francine!
UPDATE: SD County official election returns site is here. (Thanks to Predictor.)
Posted at 02:39 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
CA-50: Kaloogian is a Liar
Posted by DavidNYCOh man. This is WAY more fun than polls. Just a day ago, Kossack AnthonyLA saw a photo on Howard Kaloogian's website. This was the photo:
And this was the smug caption, worthy of the trashiest right-wing blogs:
We took this photo of dowtown Baghdad while we were in Iraq. Iraq (including Baghdad) is much more calm and stable than what many people believe it to be. But, each day the news media finds any violence occurring in the country and screams and shouts about it - in part because many journalists are opposed to the U.S. effort to fight terrorism.
A whole lot of people agreed with Anthony that Kaloogian's photo of "downtown Baghdad" actually looked rather Turkish. There was a lot of evidence to support this belief, but the final, incontrovertible proof wound up looking like this:
Another Kossack, jem6x, found this photo (with the help of a friend) on the website of a Turkish photographer, Faruk. Faruk's photo does indeed capture a slice of Turkey - the Istanbul suburb of Bakirkoy. As this montage shows, there's no question that Faruk's and Kaloogian's photos describe the same place:
Or, as Josh Marshall waggishly puts it, it's at least a four-point match. So much for that "calm and stable" Iraq, huh? I'm hardly surprised that conservatives would go to such lengths to lie about the state of affairs in Iraq. But you'd think they'd try a little harder, no? Anyhow, serious props to all these enterprising citizens of the blogosphere - and just add this to the list of things which prove that Howard Kaloogian is a liar.
Posted at 03:20 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: SUSA Poll Puts Busby at 45
Posted by DavidNYCSurvey USA has a new poll out on the CA-50 congressional race (likely voters, no trendlines):
Busby (D): 45
Roach (R): 14
Kaloogian (R): 12
Bilbray (R): 10
Morrow (R): 5
Uke (R): 5
Other: 6
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±5%)
What's interesting is that SUSA shows a better peformance by Busby than even her own campaign's poll did. However, the sample here is much more Democratic than, say, the recent Datamar poll. SUSA has a 46-38 GOP-Dem split while Datamar was at 54-33 (PDF). I'd like to believe that this poll means that Busby has a shot at clearing 50% on April 11th, but I still think there will be a run-off.
Also, none of these three polls can agree on the posture of the GOP field. Bilbray, for instance, had a strong lead in the Busby poll, a narrow lead in the Datamar poll, and a third-place showing in the SUSA poll. On this front, I won't hazard a guess as to the likely winner - it's just too up-in-the-air.
Posted at 02:50 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, March 27, 2006
CA-50: Two Polls Show Busby With Wide Leads
Posted by DavidNYCThe first poll is an internal poll taken for the campaign. Unfortunately, there is no link available yet, but here it is (likely special election voters, no trendlines):
Francine Busby (D): 39
Brian Bilbray (R): 15
Howard Kaloogian (R): 7
Eric Roach (R): 7
Bill Morrow (R): 4
Alan Uke (R): 3
Paul King (L): 2
Richard Earnest (R): 1
Chris Young (D): 1
Victor Ramirez (R): 1
Bill Hauf (R): 1
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Seven candidates scored zero percent in the Busby poll. The second survey (PDF) was taken by an independent company called Datamar ("high-propensity" registered voters, no trendlines):
Francine Busby (D): 36
Brian Bilbray (R): 11.7
Eric Roach (R): 11.2
Howard Kaloogian (R): 10.6
Scott Orren (R): 5
Bill Morrow (R): 4.8
Alan Uke (R): 3
Bill Hauf (R): 2.7
Richard Earnest (R): 2
Bill Boyer (R): 1.7
Paul King (L): 1.5
William Griffith (no party): 1.3
Scott Turner (R): 1.3
Chris Young (D): 1
Delicia Holt (R): 0.6
Jeff Newsome (R): 0.5
Victor Ramirez (R): 0.3
Milton Gale (R): 0.1
Undecided: 3.6
(MoE: ±4.07%)
It's nice to see an independent poll largely mirror the results of the internal poll. Don't get too excited, though. In case you aren't familiar with how California special elections work, the problem is this: The top finisher from each party advances to the next round, unless someone gets 50% the first time around. Busby may be in the lead, but she's well off the fifty-percent mark, so we're almost certainly headed to a run-off (which would take place on June 6th).
In the run-off, this enormous field will get whittled down to just two serious players: Busby, and whoever wins the GOP "nomination." The Republicans will have two months to unite behind their guy, and they'll be able to pump tons of money into this race. Busby's done well financially, but she faces the simple natural disadvantage of running in a district that tilts pretty solidly Republican. As you can see from both polls, Busby would necessarily have to win over some people who are currently voting for a GOPer in order to win in June.
Some people have made a comparison to the San Diego special mayoral election last year. There, Democrat Donna Frye pulled in 43% of the vote in the first round, but lost 54-46 in the final round to a candidate who had only gotten 27% in the first round. For whatever reason, Frye was only able to add three percent to her vote totals, while her opponent doubled his score. It's possible a similar scenario could play out in CA-50.
We do have a few things working in our favor, though. The big one is felon Duke Cunningham's long, scabrous shadow. Busby will be able to remind voters what party Cunningham belonged to at every opportunity. The second thing is that the GOP "primary" has taken some nasty turns - including, as I've mentioned, Republican groups openly attacking front-runner Brian Bilbray. And lastly, by all accounts, Busby has run a very sharp, mistake-free campaign. She raised over half a mil before January and will probably show solid numbers when the current quarter comes to a close. I look forward to seeing what those look like.
Posted at 06:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, March 24, 2006
CA-50: GOPer Sends Out Possibly Illegal Mailer (& More!)
Posted by DavidNYCFun stuff. Until recently, the CA-50 special election had been a surprisingly low-key affair. However, with the election now less than three weeks away, the Republicans are - unsurprisingly - resorting to dirty tricks. When it comes to sending out campaign communications, there's a little thing called "the law," and one GOPer candidate (Eric Roach) looks to have broken it. Check out 2 USC § 441d:
Whenever a political committee makes a disbursement for the purpose of financing any communication through any... mailing... such communication... if paid for and authorized by a candidate... shall clearly state that the communication has been paid for by such authorized political committee....
In other words, if you send out a mailer, you've got to put one of those little disclaimers on it, saying who authorized and paid for the mailer. The Roach campaign sent out a two-page letter - purporting to be from his wife, Meg - but didn't include any disclaimers at all. Not on page one, not on page two, not on the front of the envelope, not on the back of the envelope.
What's even more pathetic is the visual presentation of the letter itself. It's a lame-ass attempt to make the letter look like a true "personal note" from Meg Roach. Check out how cheeseball it looks, from (as the SD Dem Party put it) the "folksy letterhead to the faux-handwritten printing":
Between the typeface (I think they used the font "Teenage Girl 12 point") and the absence of any campaign indicia, this letter is seriously misleading - and, as far as I can tell, illegal. Fortunately, the aforementioned San Diego County Democratic Party has filed a complaint with the FEC. Given how glacially the FEC moves, I'm sure nothing official will come of it until long after the election is over. But this is a big black eye for Roach (who was the second-place GOPer in the most recent known poll).
In other CA-50 news, a major conservative group called the California Republican Assembly has launched a website attacking... a fellow Republican, front-runner Brian Bilbray. It's pretty hilarious - the site tries to make the claim that Bilbray is both a "liberal" and in bed with Jack Abramoff. I'm more than willing to buy the latter argument, but as to the former... well, if the Republicans want to savage one of their own with ridiculous claims, who am I to argue? (The CRA has apparently endorsed Bill Morrow, one of the straggler candidates.)
Lastly, Francine Busby has released a new ad. You can check it out here.
(Hat tips to McJoan, Juls, and the SD County Dems.)
Posted at 07:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Dropout News Roundup
Posted by DavidNYCThere are two media events going on today in races swirling with confusion. One is taking place as we speak: Elton Gallegly is conducting a press conference right here in DC. We should hopefully get press reports back soon.
The other takes place at 9 o'clock tonight, when Kathy Harris seeks the warm, lickspittle embrace of Sean Hannity to announce her future plans. The rumour du jour is that she will resign from the House to focus only on her Senate race. Personally, I wonder why more people don't do this - after all, it's not like she gets to keep her House seat if she loses the Senate race. But doing so might also require a special election (something I haven't looked into yet).
In other dropout-related news, Markos points to this short note at the Hotline blog which says that Conrad Burns just hired a political director - not the sort of move someone on the verge of dropping out tends to make.
UPDATE: Gallegly will indeed run again. I still say he bails shortly after winning, forcing a special election. We should be ready for that eventuality. What Dems in the area might make strong candidates?
UPDATE: Harris is staying in, too. Haven't heard anything about her resigning from the House, though.
Posted at 04:20 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Florida, Montana | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
CA-24: Gallegly Back In?
Posted by DavidNYCRoll Call is reporting that Gallegly has changed his mind and will seek re-election. This comes from an anonymous source, so we'll see how good this rumor really is. My take: Gallegly will "run" for re-election and then resign to force a special election, giving local GOPers another bite at the apple.
Posted at 10:29 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, March 13, 2006
CA-24: Tenenbaum vs. Martinez
Posted by DavidNYCAs you probably know by now, somehow another GOP candidate managed to file by the deadline in CA-24. It's rather odd - did this fellow, a political nobody named Michael Tenenbaum, really plan on challenging Gallegly in a primary? That would have been worse than hopeless - it would have put him on the outs with the local establishment. So that suggests one of two things to me: Tenebaum either has poor political judgment or he's extremely lucky. And no one's that lucky.
Gallegly's people say they tipped a few local bigwigs about Gallegy's medical retirement, but none of them were interested in running. I doubt they called up Tenenbaum (and they don't claim to have), but perhaps Tenenbaum found out through the grapevine and seized an opportunity. That would, conversely, indicate that he's one sharp S.O.B.
The bottom line is, Tenenbaum's presence on the ballot makes this a far less attractive situation. With no GOPer running at all, we had a chance to win this one on cruise control. But now, Gallegly will likely endorse Tenenbaum, and the local establishment will make sure the latter wins the Republican primary. Our only candidate, Jill Martinez, is also an unknown, and in a showdown between two neophytes, straight-ticket voting is going to determine the outcome. And all you need to know is that this district went 56-43 for Bush.
There's only one bit of hope I can offer: There's a chance that Gallegly could still win the primary, in a "Jeff Johnson"-type situation. Since many local Republicans appear pretty steamed at Gallegly, they may choose not to help Tenenbaum out of pique (and perhaps the belief that they'd have an easier time beating Martinez in two years). But Tenenbaum and Gallegly have three months to clear up the Jeff Johnson problem, so I'm not optimistic.
UPDATE: Ah, a little bit of news from the optimism department:
But it remains an open question whether Gallegly would support Tenenbaum, who held a press conference Friday expressing his dissatisfaction with the congressman’s 20-year House record.“The incumbent’s current record speaks for itself. He is wasting taxpayer dollars, doesn’t recognize the importance of securing our borders and he has pursued a legislative agenda that is misguided at best,” said Tenenbaum. He also contends that Gallegly’s supporters tried to bully him out of the race.
So it looks like Tenenbaum is the tilt-at-windmills sort - and that he did not get any kind of inside information prompting him to run. Taking on a popular twenty-year incumbent is not usually the way to endear yourself to party insiders. Gallegly may yet get behind Tenenbaum to defuse the anger over his screw-up (that whole "five day extension" thing doesn't apply to federal races), but it looks to me like the local GOP will have to navigate some rocky shoals in the days ahead.
Posted at 03:46 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, March 10, 2006
CA-24: Gallegly (R) Retiring - But There's More!
Posted by DavidNYCAlright, so I'm done studying. Here's a bit of interesting news: Yet another GOPer - in this case, Rep. Elton Gallegly (CA-24) - has announced his retirement. Gallegly says it's for medical reasons. Here's what makes this case interesting:
1) Today was CA's filing deadline. According to the Secretary of State (PDF) (whose website may not be completely up-to-date) and media reports (which may not be accurate) and Gallegly himself (who may be mistaken), there are no other Republicans running.2) My reading of CA election law says that Gallegly's name has to stay on the ballot unless he either dies or gets appointed to fill a different ballot vacancy.
3) Here's where things get tricky: It's not clear whether Gallegly can simply be named to some random, vacant GOP line in some election somewhere in California, or whether the vacancy he gets appointed to has to exist only as the result of someone else's death. Sections 8802 and 8803 of the CA election code appear to be in direct conflict, and I can't find any caselaw on the matter.
4) If Gallegly dies or if he can be appointed to fill another empty ballot line, then a fellow GOPer can replace Gallegly. If not, then Gallegly must stay on the ballot.
5) Conceivably, a write-in candidate could oppose Gallegly in the primary. If that happens, then it's time for local Democrats to do what otherwise would have been unthinkable - support Gallegly!
6) If Gallegly can't be appointed to another ballot line, and he wins the primary, then his name stays on the ballot right through the general election. Conceivably he could even win that election, but I very much doubt it. A different GOPer could also run write-in for the general, but good luck with that plan.
If the GOP can't get Gallegly off the ballot and/or they don't have a stealth candidate who has actually filed (but that we don't know about yet), then this is a mistake to rival what happened in OH-06. Gallegly obviously hoped to bury the bad news by releasing it late on Friday. Hopefully we'll hear more over the weekend, but we may not get clarity from the SoS until Monday.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, CA-24 went for Bush by 56-43. Ordinarily, that's quite a steep hill to climb - but it should be a hell of a lot easier if we don't have to face a real opponent! Stay tuned!
(Via liberalminded.)
Posted at 11:37 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, February 04, 2006
CA-50: Angelenos, Join Wes Clark & Support Busby
Posted by DavidNYCFrom SoCal Grassroots:
Saturday, February 04, 2006 @ 11:00 AM-2:30 PM
Hollywood United Methodist Church
6817 Franklin Ave.
Hollywood, CA, 90028
(at the corner of Highland and Franklin)Come to a FREE rally where General Wesley Clark will inspire the troops and lead the charge to take back the House of Representatives in 2006! We are bringing Democrats together from all over Southern California to support Democrat Francine Busby, who is running for indicted Republican Duke Cunningham's old seat (CA-50) in a special election April 11th.
Join Democratic candidates from red districts all over Southern California to support Busby's quest, including: Jill Martinez & Mary Pallant (CA-24), Russ Warner (CA-26), David Roth (CA-45), Roberto Rodriguez (CA-25), Florice Hoffman (CA-40) , Louie Contreras (CA-41)and Jim Brandt (CA-46). They will unite behind her by sending "Buses For Busby" - filled with local activists - to San Diego this Spring to help win this first important battle in the war to clean up the House and reclaim a majority for Democrats.
Hekebolos has more info here.
Posted at 03:13 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
CA-Gov: Arnold's Opponents Lose a Little Ground
Posted by DavidNYCA new poll from Rasmussen (likely voters, mid-Dec. in parens):
Angelides: 39 (44)
Schwarzenegger: 41 (40)Westly: 40 (46)
Schwarzenegger: 39 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Arnold's favorability margin improved somewhat, though his head-to-head numbers didn't. What's strange about this poll is that both Westly's & Angelides' overall name reco seems to have dropped. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they were unsure about Angelides, while only 26% said so in December. Westly, meanwhile, went from 30% all the way to 49%. This probably explains why their top-line numbers also declined.
I don't have access to the crosstabs because I'm not a Rasmussen subscriber, but double-digit shifts to "unsure" (almost 20% in Westly's case) seem really wacky. This may just mean there was a skewed sample in either this poll or the previous one. Since Rasmussen has pledged to poll every major race every month, we should be able to tell which one was accurate come February.
Posted at 09:20 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, January 23, 2006
CA-11: Former Rep. McCloskey in Against Pombo
Posted by DavidNYCAs we had previously discussed, former Rep. Pete McCloskey has decided to tap himself for a primary challenge against corrupt Republican radical Rep. Dick Pombo.
However, I'm appalled at McCloskey's involvement with the Institute for Historical Review, a notorious cabal of Holocaust deniers (something I did not know about when I first wrote about him). In a 2000 speech, he told the group, "I don't know whether you are right or wrong about the Holocaust...." Needless to say, this kind of talk disgusts me in the extreme. McCloskey's remark a few days ago that he "will go and speak to any group" doesn't signal very good judgment or contrition, either.
If McCloskey helps unseat Pombo, fine. But my father is a Holocaust survivor. My grandfather (after whom I am named) was murdered by the Germans. So you'll understand that when it comes to such matters, I'm pretty intolerant of guys like McCloskey. I don't treat with such people, and I'm not going to be making common cause with this guy.
Posted at 05:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 19, 2006
CA-11: Former Rep. McCloskey to Announce Primary Challenger to Pombo
Posted by DavidNYCRep. Dick Pombo is one of many, many ethically challenged GOP poster boys. He's one of CREW's thirteen most-corrupt members of Congress not named Tom DeLay. He's also the target of a spirited, multi-way Democratic primary. And now, he's got a primary challenger of his own to deal with - only, we won't know who it is until Monday.
Former Rep. Pete McCloskey - a moderate Republican from back when the term actually meant something - is fed up with Pombo and has been recruiting a challenger for quite some time. If he can't find anyone else, McCloskey has said that he would run, despite his age (he's 78). While I doubt any Republican could unseat Pombo, a nasty Republican primary is only good news for us. (And primaries where challengers take on incumbents necessarily have to be nasty, assuming they get on the radar screen in the first place.) Since McCloskey's candidate (or McCloskey himself) will be making an issue of Pombo's ethical malfeasance, I'm sure the Republicans will churn up fodder for our side to use after the primary.
Say No to Pombo is rooting for McCloskey himself to enter the race - the sole fact that the guy is a former Congressman makes him at least somewhat credible (even if he hasn't held office in ages), and thus able to command some media attention. In any event, I encourage you to follow this race at SNTP.
Posted at 12:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, December 15, 2005
CA-50: Special Election Dates Set
Posted by DavidNYCAs I expected, Gov. Schwarzenegger decided to consolidate the special election in California's 50th congressional district - necessary because of the resignation of bribe-taking felon Duke Cunningham (R) - with the statewide primary on June 6th. This means that the first round of this election will take place on April 11th. As with CA-48, the top finisher in each party will advance to the general election, unless one person takes 50%. Our candidate is Francine Busby (though some other small-time names might get into the mix), while the GOP side is unsettled:
Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside, former South Bay congressman Brian Bilbray and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian of San Marcos, all Republicans, have said they intend to seek the 50th District seat.
I would like to know why this news hasn't yet been posted to Busby's website or blog.
Anyhow, there are also some special elections coming up in January for VA state legislature seats as well. Plus, in a few days, the recount for the VA AG race will begin - but it should be a quick, two-day affair. Good luck, Creigh Deeds!
Posted at 07:40 PM in California, Special Elections, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
CA-48: Campbell Wins
Posted by DavidNYCAlas, it didn't happen. Whereas I had hoped that Gilchrist would pull votes only from Campbell, he appears to have pulled them from Young, too. The final tally, with 268 of 268 precincts reporting, looks to be:
Campbell: 45
Young: 28
Gilchrist: 25
I'll let the spinmeisters take it from here.
Posted at 01:38 AM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
CA-48: Poll Closing Times
Posted by DavidNYCPolls close at 8pm Pacific time tonight (11pm Eastern). That means, as of this posting, that there's still over 3-and-a-half hours left for people to vote, including the post-work rush.
You can follow the live results here later. I won't be able to post updates tonight as I'm busy studying for finals, but just keep clicking that link and you'll be able to see what's going on.
Feel free to discuss the results in this thread.
Posted at 10:00 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-48: The One Number That Matters: 40
Posted by DavidNYCForty. That's the percentage of the vote that John Kerry won in CA-48 last year. And that's the one number that matters for Democrats in today's special election. Read on and I'll explain.
New Mexico's third CD was (and still is) heavily Democratic: In 1996, it went 52-38-6 (Clinton-Dole-Perot). In January of 1997, Bill Richardson resigned to become UN Ambassador. A special election was held in May with the following results:
Bill Redmond (R): 43
Eric Serna (D): 40
Carol Miller (Green): 17
Thanks to a strong third-party challenge from the left, the Republican Redmond pulled off an extremely unlikely upset in a Democratic bastion. Could the same thing happen in CA-48? I think so.
In CA-48, there's a strong third-party challenge, too, but with a crucial difference: Anti-immigrant Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist is taking votes almost entirely from the Republican candidate, John Campbell. This is good news for our man Steve Young. But will Gilchrist do well enough to let Young pull off an unlikely victory? Let's get back to that 40%.
In the unusual primary in this race, Gilchrist took in 15% of the vote. Because the top finisher from each of the five parties running would automatically advance regardless of his or her percentage of the vote, there was little incentive to work hard. The only thing anyone needed to worry about was keeping Campbell below 50% (otherwise he would have won immediately), which is exactly what happened.
Gilchrist has been working a lot harder this time arond, and in fact, he's been Campbell's main, if not only, target. It's a sad commentary on America, but Gilchrist's hateful message has been resonating with a sizable chunk of voters in CA-48 - enough so that the NRCC felt the need to dump a quarter-million dollars on a race they shouldn't have had to spend a penny on. On the other hand, it's great news for Steve Young. So the question is, can Gilchrist pull in just a bit over 20%?
I don't see any reason why he couldn't. Apart from seriously ramping up his campaign, there are now only five candidates in the race, as opposed to 19. And media coverage has mostly focused on the Campbell-Gilchrist matchup, raising Gilchrist's profile and name recognition. If Gilchrist can do just six points better than he did in the primary, and Young's support level holds at Kerry's 40% mark, then Young wins by sneaking in under the radar. The math is just that simple: Young at 40 and Gilchrist at 21 means Campbell can do no better than 39. If Gilchrist does even better, then that gives Steve even more of a cushion. It could definitely happen.
As it happens, the Republican who won in NM-03 in 1997 lost the very next year. But that's definitely a bridge we can worry about later. Right now, today is election day, and we've got to focus on helping Steve Young win. I know the weather is nice out there today, so call the campaign at (949) 640-4400 to help out.
And good luck, Steve!
P.S. Get live results here.
Posted at 01:35 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, December 05, 2005
CA-48: NRCC Drops Half a Mil on the Race
Posted by DavidNYCA reader writes in:
I just came across a little over two dozen independent expenditures that the NRCC has thrown into CA-48 over the last month. It's obvious they're scared shitless if you read the timeline on the report.First off these guys are always thorough. They drop mail and then follow it up with phone calls and then poll. They drop an initial bit of mail and phone calls, and take a poll at the same time. The poll must have sucked since for the next two weeks they drop mail, and then follow it up with phone calls, do it again, and then again. They drop another poll and then follow up with more phone calls into the district, another poll and more phone calls and mail. I know that's obvious from the report, but I pulled together all the 2004 NRCC Independent Expenditure reports and this is what they did for races where they were in trouble (with a little TV thrown in, but the LA market is probably too rich for their blood).
[I]t's going to be an expensive 2006 if the NRCC has to drop a quarter of a million dollar in ever seat that Bush won with 58%. The expenditures show that the seat was, or is at least somewhat in play if they're so desperate to build up their candidate. All of the expenditures are in support of Campbell.
Those two dozen independent expenditures have totaled an astonishing quarter-million dollars in just the last month! (You can see the raw list here.) Bush won CA-48 by an 18-point margin. That's pretty nuts for the NRCC to be so scared. They may pull this one out thanks to favorable demographics & superior firepower - John Campbell's raised about 10 times what Steve Young has. But they simply can't afford to be this generous with every Bush +20 candidate next year.
P.S. To help Steve Young, go here.
Posted at 04:55 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, December 04, 2005
CA-48: Why We Can Win
Posted by DavidNYCSuperribbie, House-race guru extraordinaire, offers this explanation of why we can win in CA-48:
This is one of 16 districts in California where Kerry did better than Gore (along with 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 23, 29, 36, and 53), losing 59-41 rather than 60-40. It is a step in the right direction and may be a sign of increasing Dem strength.The net partisan balance is 58.5-41.5 GOP. This makes it more Dem-friendly than the seats held by the following:
TX-17 (Edwards--31.8% Dem)
UT-02 (Matheson--32.8%)
MS-04 (Taylor--33.5%)
ND-AL (Pomeroy--37%)
MO-04 (Skelton--38.5%)
SD-AL (Herseth--39.8%)Not a long list, but a win is certainly not out of the question.
Most of all, the presence of Minutemen head and American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist makes this very doable. Gilchrist took about 15% in the open primary and is well-financed and running a real campaign. There is a likelihood that he builds on that and ends up with about 20%. As a right-wing hardline anti-immigration candidate, that 20% is coming straight from GOPer John Campbell's hide.
In fact, if the same breakdown of voters shows up on Tuesday as voted in 2004 and Gilchrist takes 20%, the likely result is Young 41, Campbell 39, Gilchrist 20. Remember the special election in the heavily Dem Nem Mexico 3d in 1997 (replacing then-newly appointed Energy Secretary Bill Richardson)? The Greens did what they always do in New Mexico and the final result was 43 R, 40 D, 17 G.
Finally, the California GOP is laboring with the twin albatrosses of Bush and Schwarzenegger around their necks. The dismal performance of the ballot initiatives last month speaks to the apathy and disenchantment of the GOP. Turnout stands to work in our favor.
I personally think it's all gonna come down to Gilchrist's showing. Young can sneak by if the two right-wingers cannibalize each other. And again, click here for a complete list of ways you can help out.
Posted at 04:28 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Friday, December 02, 2005
CA-48: Call to Action - Final Weekend Push
Posted by DavidNYCOn Tuesday, California will hold another special election - this time, to fill the vacant House seat in CA's 48th CD. Our candidate is Steve Young. Here's how you can help him for the final weekend push:
• Virtual phone banking. This can be done by anyone, anywhere. The campaign sends you a list of names and numbers of district residents, and you call them to help get out the vote. Fun and easy, and if you have a cell phone with free nights and weekends, it only costs you your time. To join in this effort, send an e-mail to ca48@easyco.com.• Volunteer. If you leave in or near the district, contact the campaign and help pound the pavement. You can sign up on this page, but your best bet at this point is to call the campaign directly at (949) 640-4400. You can also send an e-mail to marion@steveyoungforcongress.com with your availability. The district is in Orange County - the HQ is in Irvine. In other words, not too far for those of you in LA or San Diego to come up for a day. The weekend weather looks quite pleasant.
• E-mail your California friends. Tell them about this race. Even if you aren't sure if they live in CA-48, they probably know someone who does. Word of mouth is key.
• Keep an eye on BigDog04's diaries. He's our source for info straight from the campaign.
Let's do this thing!
Posted at 03:33 PM in 2005 Elections, Activism, California | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
CA-48: How You Can Help
Posted by DavidNYCThe special election in CA's 48th CD has flow a bit below the radar, but election day is just a week away - next Tuesday, December 6th. Our guy in the race is Steve Young. As Paul Hackett (and, I'd say, Stephanie Herseth and Ben Chandler) proved, anything can happen in a special election.
But as this diary points out, hope is not a strategy. If you want to help out, the campaign needs people to do "virtual" phonebanking - ie, phonebanking from home. This is an easy way to get involved, and making calls can actually even be fun. And if you have a cell phone with free evenings/weekends, it'll only cost you your time. So if you want to become a virtual phonebanker, e-mail the campaign and they'll set you up.
Of course, if you're in the area and want to help out, foot soldiers are always crucial for final get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. The HQ is in Irvine and can be reached at (949) 640-4400.
Posted at 11:59 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Monday, November 28, 2005
CA-50: Special Election Dates
Posted by DavidNYCSections 10700 and 10703(a) of the CA Elections Code cover special elections in the event of a congressional vacancy. Here's what they say:
10700. The Governor shall call all statewide special elections by issuing a proclamation pursuant to Section 12000. Except as provided by Chapter 3 (commencing with Section 10730), in the case of a vacancy in a congressional or legislative office the Governor shall issue a proclamation, within 14 calendar days of the occurrence of the vacancy, calling a special election in accordance with Section 10703. A copy of the proclamation shall be sent to the board of supervisors of each affected county.
10703(a). A special election to fill a vacancy in the office of Representative in Congress, State Senator, or Member of Assembly shall be conducted on a Tuesday at least 112 days, but not more than 119 days, following the issuance of an election proclamation by the Governor pursuant to Section 1773 of the Government Code, except that any special election may be conducted within 180 days following the proclamation in order that the election or the primary election may be consolidated with the next regularly scheduled statewide election or local election occurring wholly or partially within the same territory in which the vacancy exists, provided that the voters eligible to vote in the local election comprise at least 50 percent of all the voters eligible to vote on the vacancy. (Emphasis added.)
Breaking it down:
• The governor must issue a "proclamation" within 14 days of today. That's Monday, Dec. 12th.• Then, the governor must set a date that is from 112 to 119 days after the proclamation. So the potential range is anywhere from 112 to 133 days from now - in other words, March 20th to April 10th.
• Ah! But there's a wrinkle! The final bolded bit of the statute says that the governor can consolidate a special election with a regular election if it could take place within 180 days of a statewide election. Guess what? There's a statewide primary election on June 6th.
• So if Schwarzenegger waits 10 or more days to issue the proclamation, then things fall into that 180-day window. Which means that the special election would be combined with the primary on 6/6/06. Whoa - that's a hell of a day, huh?
Two tugging forces will likely decide how Schwarzenegger acts: On the one hand, Arnold was widely criticized for wasting state money by calling a special election for this fall. If he waits just 10 days, he can save money by consolidating the special election. On the flipside, some in the GOP might be calculating that a low-turnout special election is better for their chances, especially since CA Dems appear to be energized. That one cuts both ways, though - a special election helped bring lots of attention to Paul Hackett, but it also seems to have hurt Steve Young running in CA-48, whose race hasn't been getting a lot of coverage.
My guess is that Arnie looks out for his own interests here and waits a week and a half so he can consolidate. His own political fortunes are too shaky to allow him to stick his neck out for the national GOP.
P.S. Chris Bowers breaks down the district's demographics and voting patterns here.
Posted at 04:39 PM in California, Special Elections | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-50: Dukestir Resigns
Posted by DavidNYCAh, it's nice for a prediction to pan out every once in a while. November 6th, yours truly:
Now, DeLay has decided to hold on to his seat despite his indictment, but some of his fellow Republicans are allegedly incensed by that decision, and I don't blame `em - who wants that kind of albatross for a necklace? But while DeLay can probably sink his nails in and cling to life, Cunningham doesn't have a friend in the world. If he has any brains, he'll resign if he's indicted - why would he want to be criminally indicted lame-duck Congressman for a year?
Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham tearfully resigned Monday after pleading guilty to bribery and admitting he took $2.4 million to steer defense contracts to conspirators using his leadership position on a congressional subcommittee.
So, actually, the Dukestir was one step ahead of me - he had a final trick up his sleeve. He plead guilty before the prosecutor issued any indictments. Sneaky, sneaky. Anyhow, been nice knowin' ya. What this means now is that we've got yet another special election brewing, in a district Bush carried by just 55-44. Our candidate is Francine Busby - go check her out.
Posted at 03:22 PM in California, Special Elections | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
California Proposition Election Results
Posted by Bob BrighamResults are slowly coming in. Here are the latest results.
For blow by blow, check out the California bloggers:
California: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
For those keeping score, the first six initiatives are the Schwarzenegger slate, the final two are good initiatives that ended up on the ballot because of idiots who decided a "no on everything" would be too easy for the voters to remember.
UPDATE (David): So much for that. "No" carries the day on all seven initiatives. Nice waste of time & money, Ahnuld.
Posted at 11:33 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2) | Technorati
2005 Election Night Coverage
Posted by Bob BrighamThis is the last hurrah for the 2005 Swing State Project team, so we will do everything we can to provide top-notch election night coverage. DavidNYC is in Washington, DC (ready for legal deployment to Virginia if the Tim Kaine vs. Jerry Kilgore race goes into extra innings). Tim Tagaris is on the ground in Ohio, ready to follow through on all he has done to help Reform Ohio Now. And I'm in California with front row seats for Arnold Schwarzenegger's initiatives. In addition to the election results, check out what the local bloggers are writing in the major states. There are now two major wires services for liberal bloggers -- state by state. Keep refreshing Swing State Project, but also visit all of the bloggers on the ground by visiting the wires:
Virginia: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
New Jersey: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
Ohio: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
California: BlogPAC wire -- Lefty Blogs
DISCLAIMER: I've ended up on BlogPAC's reports before, but all I'm trying to do here is direct you to the bloggers with the on the ground knowledge.
Posted at 07:24 PM in 2005 Elections, California, New Jersey, Ohio, Site News, Virginia | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, November 06, 2005
CA-50: Indictments Coming Soon for the Dukestir?
Posted by DavidNYCRep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) - embroiled in so many scandals to the point that Tom DeLay is starting to get jealous - has already said he won't run for re-election next fall. But the man is worse than damaged goods, and it looks like he may be just the next Republican to get indicted, joining The Bugman, Scooter Libby, practically everyone who works for Ernie Fletcher, Jack Abramoff, Tom Noe... man, I'm running out of breath here. Check this out:
There are rumblings in Washington that the [grand jury] investigation could be coming to a head. A source close to the investigation contends that prosecutors are "ready to go."The source, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity, has been involved in the case since it began, predicted indictments could be coming soon.
Now, DeLay has decided to hold on to his seat despite his indictment, but some of his fellow Republicans are allegedly incensed by that decision, and I don't blame `em - who wants that kind of albatross for a necklace? But while DeLay can probably sink his nails in and cling to life, Cunningham doesn't have a friend in the world. If he has any brains, he'll resign if he's indicted - why would he want to be criminally indicted lame-duck Congressman for a year?
So, question: If the Dukestir does step down, is there enough time for a special election in CA-50? Or will they just keep the seat open until Nov. 2006? It's a matter of state law, but my guess is the former - most states are content to have special elections just months before a general election (see Stephanie Herseth in June, 2004, for example).
Though the Duke won re-election by 58-37 last year, the district is closer than that. Bush carried it by only a 55-44 margin (sub. req.) over Kerry, which actually makes California's sixth-most competitive district. With a big Dem tide, that gap can easily be overcome by even a halfway-decent Democrat.
Right now, we're looking at a reprise by Cunningham's 2004 challenger, Francine Busby. If indictments do indeed get handed down soon, she may be facing an election much sooner than she anticipated. I plan to keep my eye on this one.
P.S. I got my "President Vote by Congressional District" from Dave Leip's absolutely invaluable Atlas of US Presidential Elections. He provides much of his information for free, but certain things (like the by-CD info) require a paid membership so that he can sustain his site. It's only $25/year (or $15 if you're a student, like myself), so I heartily recommend it if you are a serious political junkie.
(Indictment story via anisozet.)
Posted at 07:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
CA-Ballot: SUSA Poll is Bad News for Arnie Opponents
Posted by DavidNYCSurvey USA just released polls of the "first five" CA voter initiatives that are on the ballot this fall. These have all been pushed big-time by the Governator, and the results are not encouraging for his opponents (likely voters, early Oct. in parens):
Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion.
Yes: 60 (59)
No: 38 (39)
(MoE: ±4.0%)Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations.
Yes: 53 (55)
No: 45 (44)
(MoE: ±4.0%)Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members.
Yes: 56 (60)
No: 42 (37)
(MoE: ±4.0%)Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues.
Yes: 58 (58)
No: 41 (36)
(MoE: ±4.1%)Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election.
Yes: 54 (59)
No: 41 (36)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
The balance on each question is the undecideds, which are very small across the board.
So, it looks like bad news, but SUSA offers some cautionary notes:
1) Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger.2) Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate, perhaps significantly.
3) SUSA asked summary questions; other organizations have read the entire text of the ballot measures. As SUSA says, "On 11/9/05, we will know which question wording produced a more accurate pre-election poll."
So basically, #1 says that if Arnie opponents and Dems show up in force, these measures will probably get defeated. The problem is that Arnie supporters and Republicans favor these measures by much greater margins than opponents disfavor them, so we'll need big turnout to counter that effect.
Point number 2 could go either way, but since at least some of these initiatives are backed by big corporate money, that could actually be dangerous for our side.
And number 3 is a bit surprising. SUSA actually provides links to polls by other outfits (Field here and here and the Public Policy Institute of California - all links PDFs), which I'm not sure I've ever really seen any pollster do. I respect that, though, because it means that SUSA is really interested in accuracy, not just promoting its own product.
Field shows mixed results, while PPIC shows voters opposed to most of the measures. It's hard to guess which methodology might be more accurate. Do voters tend to memorize rough descriptions of each ballot measure before going into the voting booth? (That would favor SUSA's approach.) Or do they actually stand there and read the descriptions before deciding? (Field/PPIC.) Hard to say, though I imagine there must be some comparison polling out there dealing with older ballot issues.
UPDATE: Julia in comments points out that there was indeed an ealier poll on these measures, so I've added in the trendlines. It doesn't look like there's been much movement in the past two weeks, except perhaps for a little bit in our favor on 75 and 77.
Posted at 01:36 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Redistricting, Special Elections | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
CA-26: David Dreier, the GOP, and a Re-Election Challenge
Posted by Bob BrighamDuring the few brief hours David Dreier was Republican Majority Leader, there was speculation that Dreier was gay. Actually, for a long time it has been conventional wisdom among insiders that Dreier is in fact gay. Now, it is is coming out that Dreier is not Majority Leader because of this scandal.
California congressman David Dreier (R-CA) was passed over to replace House Majority Leader Tom DeLay in part because of questions about his sexuality, a congressman and several reporters told RAW STORY this week.Dreier was expected to replace DeLay after the tough-talking Texan was indicted for conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws. After being rebuffed, media reports indicated that conservatives were upset about the congressman’s “moderate positions.”
But several Washington reporters and an openly gay congressman say Dreier’s views were not the ultimate factor, asserting that speculation the Republican was gay played a major role in derailing his nomination.
This crazy episode made Dreier look pretty weak in his home district. And now that the cat is out of the bag, Dreier won't be able to count on the conservative base if he ends up in a tight race.
A dispatch from a Swing State Project source in southern California indicates that Congressman Dreier can look forward to a challenge in 2006. Not only a challenge, but a challenge by a Democrat with a story to tell and resources to invest...Dreier came so close, but the GOP homophobia caught up with him and now he might even lose his seat in congress. Here is some more background on CA-26
John Aravosis has more on GOP Closet Heterosexuals.
Posted at 04:37 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Republicans, Scandals | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, September 29, 2005
CA-Gov: Angelides Comes Out Swinging Against Ahnuld on Gay Marriage
Posted by DavidNYCIt's nice to know that there are still parts of this country not only where people feel comfortable standing up for the rights of others, but where it's also the politically sensible thing to do. Today, Schwarzenegger did the senseless (and cruel) thing by vetoing the gay marriage equality bill passed by both houses of the California legislature.
But CA gubernatorial candidate really lays the smackdown on the Governator in one short paragraph (PDF):
By vetoing the Civil Marriage and Religious Freedom Protection Act, Governor Schwarzenegger has come down on the wrong side of history. Governor Schwarzenegger had the chance to enter the pages of history with the likes of Martin Luther King Jr., John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon B. Johnson; instead he has chosen to be listed alongside George Wallace and Strom Thurmond. Just as Wallace, Thurmond and many other segregationists came to regret their errors, I hope that Governor Schwarzenegger will come to change his views.
Damn straight. Sometimes, there's no way to know which way history is ebbing and flowing. But when it comes to civic equality, our nation has continually (if fitfully) expanded civil rights. From the 19th amendment to the Voting Rights Act to Loving v. Virginia and beyond, the sphere of equality has only grown.
Wallace, Thurmond and their ilk were not just racists but fools for not realizing they were going to be left in history's dustbin. Schwarzenegger is making the same mistake, and kudos to Angelides for being unafraid to point this out.
Posted at 07:46 PM in California | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
CA-26: Gay Republican Leader David Dreier
Posted by Bob Brigham
The accession of David Dreier as GOP Leader could fracture the GOP and cost Dreier his seat. The potential for Dreier to suffer the same fate as Bob Livingston is very real.
The first major problem for Dreier is the fact that the press is covering the reports Dreier is a closetted gay man:
My latest L.A. Weekly article, THE OUTING: DAVID DREIER AND HIS STRAIGHT HYPOCRISY, has only been out on the Weekly's website for a little while, but it is already causing quite a stir. I've already been interviewed live on-air by four L.A. radio stations that broadcast into Congressman Dreier's Los Angeles County district, one of the daily newspapers in his district has been in touch with me requesting information (this is a story they wouldn't touch up until now)--and, I hear, ABC News is on the story and looking for people in Dreier's district who will go on-camera and say he's gay.I have not the slightest doubt that the outing campaign initiated by Mike Rogers' blogactive.com and supported by Raw Story's reporting is accurate in exposing Dreier. I first heard that Dreier was gay back when he first came to Congress over two decades ago and I was Washington correspondent for New York Magazine--in those days, Dreier was much more active on the gay social scene than he was later as he mounted the Republican food chain. Moreover, in the course of reporting this story, I talked to a gay Member of Congress who has observed Dreier in gay behavior and is 100% "sure," as this member told me, that Dreier is gay. And, clearly, Dreier's demagogic political homophobia justifies reporting the outing campaign targeting him.
Right now, the Christian Right looks like it has zero power in the Republican Party. I would not expect this trend to continue for long.
The other fault line that opens up by Dreier having a prominent role in the GOP is immigration. In his last election, Dreier was targeted by a Fire Dreier campaign that used radio to organize protests and has already purchased the following domains:
Dreier2006.org
Dreier2006.com
Dreier2006.net
Dreier2006.us
ElectDreier.org
ElectDreier.com
ElectDreier.net
ElectDreier.org
In 2004, Dreier outspent his opponent 50 to 1 yet received the lowest percentage of the vote during any of his elections since 1980. Dreier's district is surrounded by Democratic areas and has a significant immigrant population that could easily shift in 2006.
Right now, Dreier needs to shore up his flank, but getting today's Republicans to rally around a gay guy who is soft on immigration presents challenges that I doubt Dreier can overcome. With DeLay gone, internal GOP politics are going to get nasty. Via MyDD an important quote from Off Center
In American politics, centrifugal tendencies are everywhere. Asked to contemplate a House of Representatives without the leadership of the great coordinator, Tom DeLay, a Republican strategist with close ties to the White House commented: "It would be complete and total chaos. The House would descend into 'Lord of the Flies.'" (p. 137)
Now throw in the fact that most of GOP leadership is looking at jail time:
Washington, DC - Today, a Texas grand jury returned a criminal indictment against House GOP Leader Tom DeLay on a charge of conspiracy. Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean issued the following statement, saying DeLay's indictment is symptomatic of the Republicans' culture of corruption in Washington, DC:"Today, the state of Texas is doing what the Republican-controlled federal government has failed repeatedly to do, which is hold Republicans in Washington accountable for their culture of corruption. This alleged illegal activity reaches to the highest levels of the Republican Party.
"With House Republican Leader Tom DeLay under criminal indictment, Senate Republican Leader Frist facing SEC and Department of Justice investigations, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove under investigation, the Republican leadership in Washington is now spending more time answering questions about ethical misconduct than doing the people's business."
“Tom DeLay is neither the beginning nor the end of the Washington Republicans' ethical problems. America can do better than leaders who use their power to promote their own personal interests instead of the interests of the American people who elected them. We simply must change the way business is done in Washington."
The GOP is totally FUBAR and Democrats are Fighting.
Posted at 03:09 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Culture of Corruption, Republicans, Scandals | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
CA-Gov: Ahnuld in Trouble
Posted by DavidNYCThe Governator is in trouble. Why? Because he's already losing in head-to-head matchups against two mostly unknown Democrats. Check out the new Field Poll (PDF) (registered voters, June in parens):
Angelides (D): 43 (46)
Schwarzenegger (R): 40 (42)
Undecided: 17 (12)Westly (D): 42 (44)
Schwarzenegger (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 19 (16)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Phil Angelides is the State Treasurer, Steve Westly is the State Controller. To get a sense of how well-known these two guys are, check out the head-to-head primary matchup:
Angelides: 32 (37)
Westly: 22 (28)
Undecided: 46 (35)
Fourty-six percent undecided - that's a big number. Admittedly, it's a while before any primary would take place, but even so, these guys are still beating Arnold. If they ramp up their name reco (and surely they will), then whoever emerges victorious from the Dem primary will probably show an even more decisive lead over the Gropinator.
P.S. Fifty-six percent of registered voters say they are "not inclined" to support Arnold's re-election. In February of this year, the exact same percentage said they would be inclined to support him. Ouch.
Posted at 12:41 PM in California | Technorati
Thursday, September 01, 2005
CA-48: Steve Young Campaign Kickoff
Posted by Bob BrighamSpread the word, from a press release:
STEVE YOUNG CAMPAIGN OFFICIALLY KICKS OFF FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 WITH FAMILY RALLY AND CELEBRATION IN IRVINE
Young to outline platform, rally supporters at Mason Regional ParkOn Friday, September 2 at 6:30pm, Steve Young, endorsed candidate of the California Democratic Party, will rally voters at Mason Regional Park to celebrate the official kickoff of his campaign for Congress from California’s 48th district. The rally will be a family picnic and Young will be joined by supporters from across the district.
The campaign kickoff marks the official beginning of Young’s aggressive campaign to win the 48th district Congressional seat.
Young will be available to speak to the press at the rally and there will be photo opportunities.
What: Steve Young campaign for Congress official kickoff and rally
Where: Mason Regional Park – Shelter 5
18712 University Drive
Irvine, CA 92612
Phone: 949 923 2220When: Friday, September 2 at 6:30pm
If you can make it, let 'em know. Bloggers should sign up here.
Posted at 01:55 PM in California | Technorati
CA-48: Democrats Unite for Steve Young
Posted by Bob BrighamBig news, from a press release:
California Democratic Party Overwhelmingly Endorses Steve Young for Congress from California’s 48th District
IRVINE, Ca. – On Wednesday, August 31, 2005, Region 18 of the California Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to support Steve Young for Congress from the 48th District. The Party voted to enthusiastically endorse Young over a field of three other candidates, including John Graham, who had earned the endorsement in the previous two races for the 48th district Congressional seat.“Tonight marks the launch of a new Democratic unity and the establishment of a new Democratic family,” said Young.
“Everyone worked together in good spirit for democracy,” said Jim Moreno, Regional Director of Region 18 of the CDP. “The proceedings went very well.”
The 54-member Region 18 caucus consists of delegates to the California Democratic Party who live in the 48th Congressional district, which falls within region 18 of the state Party. The caucus convenes each time there are candidates on the Democratic ticket vying for a local, state or federal office from region 18.
The Democrats are united, the GOP is splintered (see here to here).
Go visit Steve Young's website (warning, sound).
Posted at 09:33 AM in 2005 Elections, California, California, Democrats, Open Seats, Special Elections | Technorati
CA-48: Democrats Unite for Steve Young
Posted by Bob BrighamBig news, from a press release:
California Democratic Party Overwhelmingly Endorses Steve Young for Congress from California’s 48th District
IRVINE, Ca. – On Wednesday, August 31, 2005, Region 18 of the California Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to support Steve Young for Congress from the 48th District. The Party voted to enthusiastically endorse Young over a field of three other candidates, including John Graham, who had earned the endorsement in the previous two races for the 48th district Congressional seat.“Tonight marks the launch of a new Democratic unity and the establishment of a new Democratic family,” said Young.
“Everyone worked together in good spirit for democracy,” said Jim Moreno, Regional Director of Region 18 of the CDP. “The proceedings went very well.”
The 54-member Region 18 caucus consists of delegates to the California Democratic Party who live in the 48th Congressional district, which falls within region 18 of the state Party. The caucus convenes each time there are candidates on the Democratic ticket vying for a local, state or federal office from region 18.
The Democrats are united, the GOP is splintered (see here to here).
Go visit Steve Young's website (warning, sound).
Posted at 09:33 AM in 2005 Elections, California, California, Democrats, Open Seats, Special Elections | Technorati
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
CA-48: Steve Young Launches Campaign Website
Posted by Bob Brigham
From a press release:
STEVE YOUNG LAUNCHES INNOVATIVE CAMPAIGN WEBSITE
STEVEYOUNGFORCONGRESS.COM
Campaign website features groundbreaking video technology that allows candidate to speak directly to site visitor from page; Will play important role in voter outreachSteve Young, candidate for Congress from California’s 48th district, launched his new campaign website this morning. The website, http://steveyoungforcongress.com, outlines Young’s positions on the major issues affecting the 48th district as well as his detailed plan for reenergizing working families and small businesses.
Young’s website features Rovion’s proprietary BlueStream™, cutting-edge video technology that actually allows a lifelike video overlay of the candidate to automatically open and speak at the bottom of most pages. These videos can also be sent via webmail and will be used to contact voters throughout the campaign. Young’s campaign marks the most extensive use of this technology in a political campaign in the United States. Young’s campaign will explore new ways in which BlueStream™ can energize and motivate voters online.“I am so excited about the new technology we are using on the site and I can’t wait to get feedback from the website’s visitors,” Young said.
I signed up at the Blogger's Corner. The calendar lists the Kickoff on Friday.
Posted at 03:31 PM in California, California, Democrats, General, Netroots, Open Seats, Special Elections | Technorati
CA-48: Steve Young Launches Campaign Website
Posted by Bob Brigham From a press release:
STEVE YOUNG LAUNCHES INNOVATIVE CAMPAIGN WEBSITE
STEVEYOUNGFORCONGRESS.COM
Campaign website features groundbreaking video technology that allows candidate to speak directly to site visitor from page; Will play important role in voter outreachSteve Young, candidate for Congress from California’s 48th district, launched his new campaign website this morning. The website, http://steveyoungforcongress.com, outlines Young’s positions on the major issues affecting the 48th district as well as his detailed plan for reenergizing working families and small businesses.
Young’s website features Rovion’s proprietary BlueStream™, cutting-edge video technology that actually allows a lifelike video overlay of the candidate to automatically open and speak at the bottom of most pages. These videos can also be sent via webmail and will be used to contact voters throughout the campaign. Young’s campaign marks the most extensive use of this technology in a political campaign in the United States. Young’s campaign will explore new ways in which BlueStream™ can energize and motivate voters online.“I am so excited about the new technology we are using on the site and I can’t wait to get feedback from the website’s visitors,” Young said.
I signed up at the Blogger's Corner. The calendar lists the Kickoff on Friday.
Posted at 03:31 PM in California, California, Democrats, General, Netroots, Open Seats, Special Elections | Technorati
Monday, August 29, 2005
CA-Gov: Bill Clinton to Run in California?
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the San Francisco Examiner's PJ Corkery:
Forget Robin Williams, forget Rob Reiner … the superstar that big money Los Angeles Democrats want to run for governor of California is … Bill Clinton. Yep. Some of the Southland's deepest Democratic pockets are busily trying to persuade — some would say "hire" — Clinton to move to the Golden State and take on Schwarzenegger. They figure that Bubba can beat the faltering Terminator here in 2006 in a New York minute.
I would still vote for Phil Angelides in the primary.
Posted at 03:07 PM in California | Comments (2) | Technorati
CA-48: Special Election Turns Negative
Posted by Bob BrighamCA-48 has Club For Growth's new negative ad:
...SHE MISSED MORE THAN THREE HUNDRED VOTES IN ALL.WHEN SHE DID SHOW UP, SHE VOTED FOR A STATE BUDGET THAT WAS SO BLOATED EVEN GRAY DAVIS THOUGHT IT SPENT TOO MUCH MONEY.
MARILYN BREWER. SO LIBERAL, TAXPAYERS ARE BETTER OFF WHEN SHE DOESN'T VOTE. ...
These wounds won't heal by the runoff election. A fractured GOP, a third party nut, and Democratic West Coast Offense could all come together to give Democrats a shot in Orange County.
Posted at 12:12 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Open Seats, Republicans, Special Elections | Technorati
Thursday, August 25, 2005
CA-48: Ballot Order
Posted by Bob BrighamHere is the ballot order for the CA-48 Special Election:
1) John Kelly, Republican
2) John Campbell, Republican
3) David Crouch, Republican
4) Bruce Cohen, Libertarian
5) Steve Young, Democrat
6) Don Udall, Republican
7) Bea Foster, Democrat
8) Scott Maccabe, Republican
9) Guy Mailly, Republican
10) Marsha Morris, Republican
11) Marilyn Brewer, Republican
12) Marshall Sanders, Republican
13) Edward Suppe, Republican
14) Tom Pallow, Democrat
15) Bea Tiritilli, Green
16) John Graham, Democrat
17) Jim Gilchrist, American Idependent
It was priceless having OH-02 during the last special election. Now we have CA-48. It is my view that we need at least one of these for every district.
Posted at 05:42 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Open Seats, Special Elections | Comments (2) | Technorati
CA-48: Silly DCCC
Posted by Bob BrighamIn the OH-02 Special Election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was rightly criticized for extreme tardiness. You would think that the DCCC would have learned their lesson as we head into the Special Election in Orange County. You would be wrong:
A spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not return a call for comment on the race.
Luckily, Allan Hoffenblum, Republican political analyst and publisher of the California Target Book, returns press calls. He nails the race dynamics:
Although the congressional district is considered conservative, a Democrat or moderate Republican could win because of the state's unusual "open" primary rules in special elections.All candidates are on the same ballot, regardless of party, and a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win -- an unlikely event with nearly 20 candidates in the race.
If nobody wins, the top vote-getters of each party would face off in a Dec. 6 general election, and as the lone independent, Mr. Gilchrist is assured a spot.
A split among conservatives voting for Mr. Gilchrist and state Sen. John Campbell, reportedly backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, could swing the vote to a Democratic candidate, Mr. Hoffenblum said. (emphasis mine)
Indeed.
Hat tip to CA-48.
Posted at 02:00 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Democrats, Open Seats, Special Elections | Comments (1) | Technorati
San Francisco: Michela Alioto-Pier vs. Jonny Moseley
Posted by Bob BrighamAs a civic minded blogger, from time-to-time I feel it necessary to intervene in local affairs. Today's announcement that San Francisco Supervisor Michela Alioto-Pier was successful in her bid to hold-up Jonny Moseley's 30th birthday gift to The City provides an opportunity for me to adjudicate a compromise.
BACKGROUND
Olympic Gold Medalist Jonny Moseley has spent more than a year organizing "Icer Air 2005" as a birthday gift to San Francisco on the day Moseley turns 30. Moseley envisioned using his name to draw dozens of world class names to San Francisco for a televised event featuring trucked-in snow creating a ski jump on one of San Francisco's legendary hills.
As is often the case in San Francisco, an opportunistic, third-rate politician stepped in at the very last minute to...cancel Jonny Mosely's birthday. From the San Francisco Examiner:
Entertainment Commissioner Terrance Allan was disappointed, saying these type of quirky events give San Francisco its reputation and draw tourists and visitors. He also said it was unfair to cancel the contest after organizers had spent more than a year applying for three separate event permits."Every neighborhood contributes to the vitality of the international persona by hosting street fairs like the Castro Fair or the Folsom Street Fair," Allan said. "All of that contributes to the mystique and allure that draws visitors to San Francisco. I find it disingenuous that one neighborhood would feel aloof and detached from making our city great."
That neighborhood is represented by Sup. Michela Alioto-Pier. The San Francisco Chronicle asked her about her push to cancel Jonny Moseley's birthday:
Supervisor Michela Alioto-Pier, who represents Pacific Heights, was also pleased that the competition had been called off.
"This is the only responsible thing to do,'' she said.
That Michela would pull a hold-up maneuver is not surprising in the least bit, she is known as the champion of fluff issues. There seems to be no bounds to the lengths Alitio-Pier will go to in her quest to score cheap political points, which makes sense considering she lost and kept losing as a candidate until she was appointed to her seat on the Board of Supervisors.
Michela Alioto-Pier is best known for her opposition to smoking outdoors and her tear-drenched tantrums that result whenever somebody says a bad word that is overheard by her socialite ears.
While Alioto-Pier lacks the ability to get anything done on the real issues, she excels at making a big deal out of fluff-issues. And she was successful in her battle against Jonny Moseley. But Michela only won the first round. Which wasn't exactly a win when you consider the extreme financial backlash that could result from Michela's hold-up job.
DECISION
If Jonny Moseley isn't sick of politicians like Michela Pier-Alioto, he should be given all available help to reschedule the event at the earliest possible date. In return, there should be no swearing or smoking by any of the fans or participants. If, for example, an athlete were to crash after flying 70 feet in the air and accidentally mutter the word "crap" – the perpetrator would need to immediately recite 5 Hail Marys. Ten for the word 'shit' and the f-bomb should result in 20 Hail Marys. Unless the F-bomb precedes "Michela Alioto-Pier" –- in that case it is justified.
Posted at 12:44 PM in Activism, California, Culture of Corruption, Economy, General, Netroots, Scandals | Comments (1) | Technorati
Monday, August 15, 2005
CA-48: Election Date Set
Posted by Tim TagarisOur pal Stuart at the Political Dog Fight has the scoop on the special election dates set earlier today:
Election Dates proclaimed by Governor Muscles this morning. The General Special Election for the CA-48th will be December 6th, 2005. The Secretary of State's office determined the Primary Election shall be October 4, 2005. This has been confirmed by conversation with the Secretary of State's office and the Election Analysts.Hopefully we can stave off a general election and win this one in the primary. With several Republicans intent on running and wingnut extraordinaire James Gilchrist of Minuteman fame weighing a run, it might be worth looking at one Democratic candidate and turning out the base like never before. But if we have more than one candidate, we might as well get eight in there to take our chances in a general election in December (not a bad time to be visiting The OC).
Posted at 06:15 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Open Seats | Comments (4) | Technorati
Tuesday, August 09, 2005
DCCC: Leave No District Behind
Posted by Tim TagarisIn light of the recent "bubble-up" between the DCCC vs. the netroots and supporters of the 50 state strategy, I thought this piece leading off today's House Race Hotline was interesting (Nat'l Journal Subs Only):
Too bad there's no strong Dem candidate in the CA 48 special -- then we could really see if those charges of being a "rubberstamp" for Bush that were lobbed at GOPer Jean Schmidt in OH 02, will resonate on a nat'l level. Of course, after their heavy involvement in the OH 02 race, it's a worthy question to ask -- who could recruit a candidate first in CA 48, the DCCC or the liberal blogosphere?Ready. Set. Go!
Posted at 03:04 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Democrats, Open Seats, Special Elections | Comments (4) | Technorati
Thursday, July 14, 2005
CA-50: Cunningham Announcement Not Good Enough - Must Resign
Posted by Bob BrighamVia Raw Story, Dukester not running for re-election:
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R-Calif., who is under investigation for his dealings with a defense contractor, will not seek re-election.The eight-term lawmaker announced his decision at California State University at San Marcos on Thursday afternoon at 3 p.m.
But, that's not good enough:
Washington, DC – "Given the ever-lengthening list of Representative Randy "Duke" Cunningham’s unethical and potentially criminal acts, it is not sufficient for the Congressman to do nothing more than announce that he will not seek another term," Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) said today. "Rep. Cunningham’s conduct is so beyond the pale as to require nothing less than his immediate resignation. His constituents deserve a Member of Congress who can concentrate on the district’s issues, rather than one who will be spending his time focusing on his criminal defense."Sloan also expressed skepticism about Rep. Cunningham's decision to donate some of the proceeds of the sale of his house to charity, "as a former prosecutor, I can't help but think that the reason Rep. Cunningham is selling his mansion and donating part of the profits to charity is to make himself more sympathetic before a potential sentencing judge."
"Today’s announcement should have no effect on the pending Department of Justice, Internal Revenue Service and Department of Defense investigations into Rep. Cunningham and a member of the House of Representatives should file an ethics complaint against him with the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct."
CREW is preparing an ethics complaint against Cunningham, which will be released Friday morning.
More to come...
Posted at 07:21 PM in California | Technorati
Thursday, July 07, 2005
CA-Gov: Teachers "Kicking Arnold's Butt"
Posted by Tim TagarisJust when you thought it couldn't get any worse at the Pepsi Co. Governor's Mansion, there is more polling data out on Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-Wells Fargo).
San Jose State University survey. June 27-July 1, 2005. N=928 adults statewide. (MoE ± 3.2)
Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 55%
Unsure/DK: 11%
In a head to head, the man who vowed to "kick the butt" of teachers, nurses, and other special interests is getting his ass kicked:
San Jose State University survey. June 27-July 1, 2005. N=686 voters statewide. (MoE ± 3.7)
"If there’s a battle over school funding in the upcoming special election in November between Governor Schwarzenegger on one side, and teachers and school administrators on the other side, who are you more likely to support?"
Teachers: 60%
Governor: 31%
These numbers are absolutely horrible. Terrible. Abysmal. The only question remaining is how close a poll would be questioning who people are more likely to support, Arnold, or a ham sandwich.
Posted at 09:38 PM in California | Technorati
CA-48: Bob Dornan and the American Independent Party
Posted by Bob BrighamThe special election in California's 48th Congression District could get very interesting. Toss out convention wisdom about Orange County, if this race goes three way with a big name, it could be very favorable for Democrats. From the LA Times:
Former U.S. Rep. Robert K. Dornan, a rabble-rousing Republican and notorious conservative who represented Orange County from 1985 through 1996, is eyeing another run for Congress, despite defeats in 1996, 1998 and 2004.This time, Dornan, 72, is weighing whether to abandon the GOP and run as a candidate for the American Independent Party. He is hoping to gain a strategic advantage in a bid for the plum coastal congressional seat held by Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach).
It gets weirder, and it appears Dornan will quickly go negative on Republican candidates (state Senator John Campbell and former Assemblywoman Marilyn C. Brewer).
Campbell and Brewer are too moderate and unreliable on such issues as abortion, said Dornan, who lives in Virginia but is registered to vote in Sunset Beach."This time, I'm not going to see a safe conservative seat go to someone like Marilyn Brewer," he said by telephone. He said social liberals, who he predicted would back both Campbell and Brewer, "are a metastasizing cancer on the Republican party to turn us into Democrats."
"metastasizing cancer"
Here's how it would go:
Running as an independent candidate has appeal, Dornan said Wednesday, because he would not have to change parties to appear on the ballot — as long as at least 40 registered American Independent Party voters signed his nomination papers.All candidates would appear on the same ballot in the special election, with the top vote-getters from each party in a runoff if there is no clear majority. [...]
The American Independent Party has about 29,000 registered voters in Orange County, with 7,620 voters in Cox's 48th Congressional District. Republicans have 202,793 voters in the district; Democrats have 109,514.
The independent platform includes ending foreign aid and debt financing by state and federal governments, ending the federal income tax and international trade pacts, reducing immigration and ending subsidies to illegal immigrants. The group opposes abortion and claims it's the only party to support a state's right to recognize God and the Ten Commandments.
Here's some polling and the Seaborn strategy.
Posted at 10:58 AM in 2005 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, California, Special Elections | Comments (2) | Technorati
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
CA-50: Randy "Duke" Cunningham Scandal
Posted by Bob BrighamFew things have given me such pleasure as of late as watching Josh Marshall spin the tale of Randy "Duke" Cunningham and the scandal that keeps going and going and going -- with no end in sight. As usual, Marshall has focused attention by asking all of the right questions while letting the story tell itself. As the Washington Post reports, we now have a second boat. To keep everything clear, I've provided the following chart:
| scandal watch | Number 1 | Number 2 |
| BAGMAN | Mitchell J. Wade | Thomas T. Kontogiannis |
| BUSINESS | Defense Contractor | Developer |
| PRIORS | unknown | In 2002, plead guilty in connection with alleged bribes involving a school superintendent and $6 million contracts |
| YACHT | Duke-Stir | Kelly C |
| YACHT $ | Cunningham stayed rent-free on this 42-foot namesake | Cunningham bought it in 1997, for a reported $200,000.00, in 2002, appraised at $1.2 million and sold to Kontogiannis for $600,000.00 (but kept in Cunningham's name while Kontogiannis spent $100,000 on refurbishments), as of a month ago, Cunningham was planning to take boat back to D.C. |
| MANSION | Del Mar | Rancho Santa Fe |
| MANSION $ | Cunningham sold to Wade for $1.675 million, Wade then sold for a $700,000 loss | Cunningham has Kontogiannis finance mortage (at wholesale rate) on $2.55 million home, then Kontogiannis pays off second mortage and |
| SCORE | Wade banked tens of millions of dollars in defense and intelligence-related contracts | unknown |
| MONEY QUOTE | Cunningham lawyer K. Lee Blalack said he couldn't talk about the case because he "hadn't gotten his hands dirty on this thing yet." | Kontogiannis: "Why would I do that? I don't need the man" |
And let's not forget the Top Gun scandal:
Cunningham's troubles may have extended this week to a company he owns, Top Gun Enterprises Inc. He started that company in 1987, primarily as a means of marketing a book he wrote about his experiences as a Navy fighter pilot during the Vietnam War.A Web site for the company sold the book and other items, including a $595 Buck knife that featured an imprint of Cunningham in his flight suit and what the site said was the Seal of Congress.
Use of that seal on commercial products is prohibited without specific approval from Congress, which Cunningham does not appear to have secured. On Thursday, the Web site had removed the knife and all the products it had been offering and put up a note saying only that the site was under construction.
So I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the California's 50th Congressional District could be competitive in 2006.
UPDATE: (Bob) While we're doing charts, what about this chart on Randy Cunningham:
1 Voting percentage with DeLay:
calculated through: www.cq.com96%
2 Vote to weaken ethics rules:
H Res. 5, Roll Call #6, 1/4/05YES
3 Vote to weaken ethics rules:
H Res. 5, Roll Call #6, 1/4/05YES
4 Vote to table Democratic solution:
H. Res. 153, Roll Call #70, 3/15/05
YES
5 Closed door indictment rule vote:
http://www.pcactionfund.org/votecount/dr.htmYES
6 Donations to DeLay's Legal Defense Fund:
www.citizen.org, www.tray.com
$6,000
Ladies and Gentleman, this is your Republican Congress!
Posted at 10:10 AM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - House, California, Republicans, Scandals | Comments (6) | Technorati
Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Political Pride T-Shirts
Posted by Bob BrighamIn San Francisco, there is a tradition among politicians to demonstrate popularity by getting a bunch of people together to march in the Pride Parade. Showing the number of people is easier by getting everyone wearing the same T-Shirts. Since it is Pride, the T-Shirts have colorful messages:
And how was the humor at this year's Pride Parade? Well, DA Kamala Harris' corps marched in T-shirts emblazoned "Kamala Harris — She Has Convictions." But Public Defender Jeff Adachi and his 100 marchers wore shirts that said, "SF Public Defender — Getting You Off Since 1921."
Posted at 03:49 PM in California | Technorati
CA-Gov: Nosedive at Pepsi Co. Governor's Mansion
Posted by Tim TagarisJust when you thought it couldn't get any worse for the Kindergraden Cop. He has been protested here, there, and seemigly everywhere he goes. Then Ahnold was booed at a commencement ceremony last week. His poll numbers have been getting ugly, but just when you thought it couldn't get any worse at the PepsiCo. Governor's Mansion, "The Field Poll" called California residents:
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?" N=954 adults (MoE ± 3.2) -- Conducted by The Field Poll:
Approve: 31%
Disapprove: 58%
Don't Know: 11%
And the trend? Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey. May 10-17, 2005. N=2,003:
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 49%
Don't Know: 11%
Rose Institute, Claremont McKenna College. April 12-16, 2005. N=800 -- MoE ± 3.5:
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 42%
Don't Know: 11%
The lowest approval rating ever in California Field Poll History for a Governor is 24%; that was Gray Davis on April 14, 2003--and we all know what happened there. Talk of a recall began well before that poll was taken when Davis had numbers closer to the current figures Schwarzenegger is touting.
The two candidates for Governor in 2006 are Phil Angelides and Steve Westley. More on the two challengers coming soon.
Posted at 02:33 PM in California | Technorati
Tuesday, June 21, 2005
CA-50: Duke Cunningham Smacked Down
Posted by Bob BrighamCongressman Pete Stark (CA-13) publically smacked down scandal-tainted Congressman Duke Cunningham. Stark spent $500 of his own money for web ads that ran on the D.C. insider sites Congress Daily and Hotline. As is to be expected with any investment in bold action, Stark earned traditional media, from The Hill:
Rep. Pete Stark (D-Calif.) spent $500 of his own money to place an ad online lampooning Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s (R-Calif.) recent controversial sale of his home to a defense contractor.“Attention Powerful Lobbyists! House for Sale By Influential Member of Congress … From recent practices by defense contractor lobbyists, it appears that you may be able to slip a cool million to a Member of Congress with little fear of ethics violations,” read the ad, which ran yesterday on the National Journal website.
Stark said in a statement that he acted out of frustration with the House’s stalled ethics process, adding, “It is ridiculous that the House is still without a working ethics committee that can investigate abuses of power.”
Props to Congressman Stark for creatively bringing attention to the ethics-free zone the Republican Leadership has created.
Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Activism, California, Scandals | Technorati
Friday, June 17, 2005
CA-48: Special Election Polling
Posted by Tim TagarisSo, it's closer than I thought it might be:
Conducted by Probolsky Research (R). June 10-14, 2005. N=325 likely special election voters districtwide. (MoE +/- 5.5%)
John Graham (D): 22%
John Campbell (R): 31%
Marilyn Brewer (R): 8%
Don't Know/Undecided: 39%
The Democrat, John Graham is a university professor. For the Republicans, John Campbell is a State Senator and Marilyn Brewer is a business woman.
Posted at 02:29 AM in 2005 Elections, California, Polls, Special Elections | Comments (3) | Technorati
Thursday, June 02, 2005
CA-48: Chris Cox Out; Open Seat
Posted by Bob BrighamCalifornia Republican Chris Cox will be leaving behind an Open Seat as he has been tapped for the SEC.
Of course, this seat is Orange County, but it does present Democrats an opportunity for life to imitate art...imitating political life.
This is the seat Sam Seaborn ran for on The West Wing. Viewers will remember that Seaborn took one for the team, serving as a big gun running in an awful district following a strange turn of events.
Seaborn lost, but it is important for us to fight in every district, every cycle -- all of the time. Hollywood is filled with such bigs guns talking about running for Governor or President. Right now, one of these people should can the talk and start working to take back Orange County -- starting with fighting for the California 48th.
Orange County isn't as bad as convention wisdom suggests. Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez calls it home and it has also elected Democrats like Richard T. Hanna and Jerry Patterson.
The trend could also be favorable for Democrats. Red Orange County resulted from Oakies and other midwesterners populating the area, but the current migration patterns of immigrants provided Sanchez her victory and could make the district far more competitive in years to come.
Open seats are targets of opportunity that are critical for a minority party. So let's put the Orange County jokes aside, find a good candidate ready to fight relentlessly, and give the immigrant communities a reason to vote for a Democrat.
Posted at 11:31 AM in 2005 Elections, California, Open Seats, Special Elections | Comments (2) | Technorati
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
DCCC: Health Insurance for the Troops
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the subscription-only Hotline:
Using Memorial Day as a backdrop, the DCCC went up in 12 CDs over the weekend to pick at Republicans for opposing military benefit expansion.John Havens, who identifies himself as a retired adjutant general in the Missouri National Guard, says in the 60-second radio spot that "thousands of brave National Guard members and reservists" serving on active duty "lose the same health insurance other soldiers can count on" when they return home. An announcer, noting that Congress recently "defeated a plan to extend health coverage to members of the Guard, the Reserves and their families," mentions a Republican who opposed the plan and asks listeners to tell the member "he owes those who serve our nation more than Memorial Day speeches. "
The spot takes issue with the members for opposing a procedural motion to H.R. 1815 that would have expanded the TRICARE insurance program to National Guard members and Reservists.
The targets?
According to a DCCC spokeswoman, the spot airing in airing this week in a "strategic buy" covering the home districts of 12 GOP lawmakers: Vito Fossella (NY 13), Sam Graves (MO 06), John Hostettler (IN 08), Tim Murphy (PA 06), Bob Ney (OH 18), Richard Pombo (CA 11), Dave Reichert (WA 08), Rick Renzi (AZ 01), Rob Simmons (CT 02), Mike Sodrel (IN 09), Charles Taylor (NC 11) and Ed Whitfield (KY 01). Different versions of the spot mention each representative by name.
These 12 Representatives should be ashamed -- our troops deserve better.
Posted at 04:33 PM in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington | Comments (2) | Technorati
CA-Gov: Digging Holes to...Fill Them
Posted by Bob BrighamLast week, Swing State Project reported on Governor Arnold Schwarzenneger getting busted having government workers dig a hole in the ground so that he could fill it in for a photo-op.
Today, we have the weakest attempt at spin I've seen in a long time. From David Vossbrink:
"San Jose crews were already planned to be at that location to work on scheduled repairs that require removing old pavement and replacing it."
So there was a plan to dig a pothole to fill it in, it had nothing to do with the photo op. Wink-wink, nod-nod...
Posted at 12:36 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California, Scandals | Technorati
San Diego Mayoral Special Election
Posted by Bob BrighamI love Special Elections. While most regular elections are carefully scripted affairs that have been planned for years, Special Elections are last minute sprints. Following the abrupt resignation of San Diego's mayor, there is a Special Election scheduled for July 26th (likely to be followed by a runoff). From the AP:
SAN DIEGO - Fifteen candidates submitted signatures before a Friday filing deadline to run for a spot on the July 26 ballot to replace embattled Republican Mayor Dick Murphy. [...]Donna Frye, a Democratic city councilwoman who nearly won a write-in bid in November's disputed mayoral election, is widely considered the front-runner to replace Murphy.
Frye, who is married to the legendary surfer Skip Frye, ran a surf shop and campaigned for clean water before joining the City Council in 2001. She has campaigned on a theme of ending what she sees as a culture of secrecy at City Hall.
With a surf shop owner leading the rag-tag pack, it isn't surprising to see she's facing competition for a valet, a P.I., and of course, a rich guy trying to buy the seat. Full candidate list after the break.
Donna Frye - City Councilmember
Jerry Sanders - Businessman
Jeremy Ledford - Sales for McKesson
Jonathan Schell - Software Engineer
Les Swazzo - Full time student
Paul M. Dekker - Computer Consultant
Tony V. Theodore - General Manager
George R. Cook - Property Manager
Bernard Palecek - Dir. of Operations, California Mortgage Consultant
James Galley - Water Plant Operator
Ed Kolker - Mediator
Christopher Perl - Customer Service Rep. 2/HSBC Auto Finance
Michael Hill - Bartender/Manager
Jim Bell - Ecological Designer
Michael Shelby - Motorcycle Sales & Services
John P. Casey - Small Business Owner
Richard Rider - Taxpayer Activist
Christopher McKerlie - Marketing Manager
Kent Mesplay - County Air Quality Inspector
Bret Patterson - Airline Employee
Thomas Knapp - Supervisor
Christopher L. Wylie - Teacher/Artist
Steve Francis - Executive Chairman-AMN Healthcare
Shawn A. McMillan - Attorney
Ronnie Douglas Lawson - Private Investigator
Joseph Braverman - Researcher
John Washington - Valet Attendant-Cashier
Mac Sperry - Activist, Writer, Political Theorist
Patrick Shea - Attorney Businessman
Posted at 11:46 AM in 2005 Elections, California, Special Elections | Comments (1) | Technorati
Friday, May 27, 2005
CA-Gov: Political Cheapness
Posted by Bob BrighamToday's San Francisco Chronicle:
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger traveled to a quiet San Jose neighborhood Thursday, and -- dogged by protesters -- filled a pothole dug by city crews just a few hours before, as part of an attempt to dramatize his efforts to increase money for transportation projects.The choreographed press opportunity -- at least the governor's fourth recent event involving transportation issues -- seemed aimed as much at thwarting the demonstrators who have followed Schwarzenegger for weeks as grabbing new attention for his proposal.
The Governor is using state resources to tear up our roads so he can pretend to fix them on TV? This is one of the most pathetic acts of political cheapness I have ever encountered.
Even worse is the fact the Governor's handlers were busted trying to pull of this little stunt. You be the judge, is such an event an adequate rapid response to yesterday's FRONT PAGE STORY:
10,000 protest governorSacramento -- Thousands of public employees staged the biggest political rallies of the year at the state Capitol and in Los Angeles on Wednesday, charging that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's policy agenda shortchanges schoolchildren and undermines the fabric of California's poor and middle class.
The protests came after weeks of increasingly heated, campaign-style rhetoric from both sides as Schwarzenegger moved the state closer to a special election on issues such as state spending and teacher tenure.
Schwarzenegger has derided unions as "special interests" whose grip on Democratic party politics is the source of many of the state's ills. At the Capitol on Wednesday, firefighters, teachers, nurses and others -- many wearing the insignias of their professions -- stood under a sweltering late- afternoon sun and, in the most charged and personal rhetoric yet, fired back.
"The CEO of California is ... picking on women in wheelchairs," Frances Gracechild, director of Resources for Independent Living, told a crowd of roughly 10,000 people. "The only thing I can think of so he won't have to do hard time in hell is resign." (emphasis mine)
This on top of the product placement scandal? I don't think Schwarzenegger will be back.
Posted at 10:51 AM in 2006 Elections - State, California, Scandals | Comments (1) | Technorati
CA-Gov: Product Placement in Campaign Ads?
Posted by Tim TagarisYou have simply got to be kidding me. What a clown Arnold Schwarzenegger is.
The TV ad, released in May, features Schwarzenegger talking to people in a lunchroom, and places Pepsi and Arrowhead Water in prominent spots next to the governor for one-third of the ad.And polling results released earlier today over at Polling Report (subscription only) tell the story (MoE +/- 2%).Donors connected to Pepsi Co. and Arrowhead Water's parent company, Nestle, gave the governor a total of $279,800 in campaign contributions. Also recognizable on-screen are Ruffles, Sun Chips, Cheetos and a SoBe Beverage, all brands owned by Pepsi.
"Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?"
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 49%
Don't Know: 11%
"Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?"
Right Direction: 35%
Wrong Direction: 57%
Don't Know: 8%
Phil Angelides, not sponsored by Pepsi, your next Governor of California.
Posted at 12:46 AM in 2006 Elections - State, California, Scandals | Technorati
Monday, May 23, 2005
"Nuclear Option" Citizen Filibusters
Posted by Bob BrighamMoveon PAC's Citizen Filibusters made DavidNYC's All Hands On Deck action post. I just finished registering for mine:
City Hall
1 Dr. Carlton B. Goodlett Place
San Francisco, CA 94103
Tuesday, 24 May 2005, 12:00 PM
See you there, if you aren't there, I expect to see photos of the Citizen Filibuster in your area.
Posted at 03:36 PM in Activism, California, Nuclear Option | Technorati
Saturday, May 21, 2005
San Diego Special Election for Mayor
Posted by Bob BrighamOn July 26th, San Diego will have a general Special Election to replace Dick Murphy who resigned from the office under scandal. As I'm sure you can appreciate, that is quite a sprint of a race that should be interesting to watch because of the candidates. From the AP:
SAN DIEGO - A wealthy Republican businessman on Thursday entered the race for mayor of scandal-plagued San Diego, joining a field that includes a maverick councilwoman and a former police chief. [...]Steve Francis announced his candidacy by saying he was "ashamed, embarrassed and angry" at the city's leaders. "If you ran a business this way, you would be in jail," he said.
The 50-year-old Francis, executive chairman of a hospital staffing company, has already contributed $500,000 to his campaign, according to an e-mail sent to his supporters.
Francis served in the Nevada Assembly in the 1980s but is new to San Diego politics. His main opponents to date are former Police Chief Jerry Sanders, a Republican, and Councilwoman Donna Frye, a Democrat who nearly won a write-in bid in November.
Rich boy will have some dough, but Frye has the potential to captivate the narrative. Her candidacy is perfect for an agressive internet campaign, stay tuned to see if she takes advantage of the potential.
Posted at 01:25 PM in 2005 Elections, California, Special Elections | Technorati
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
LA-Mayor: Villaraigosa v. Hahn
Posted by Tim TagarisRegular updates can be found HERE. I will continue to update this race, and Seth Williams, at Swing State Project.
Update 1: Reporting 8%: Villaraigosa 51% (61,435) - Hahn 48% (58,045)
Update 2: Reporting 9%: Villaraigosa 53% (71,621) - Hahn 47% (62,610)
Update 3: Reporting 11%: Villaraigosa 56% (90,660) - Hahn 44% (72,024)
Update 4: Reporting 14%: Villaraigosa 58% (119,044) - Hahn 42% (86,150)
Update 5: Reporting 16%: Villaraigosa 58% (139,773) - Hahn 41% (98,486)
FINAL: Quick correction, the above percent reporting numbers are the numbers for voters, not precincts. The count stands at Villaraigosa 58.66% (260,721) - Hahn 41.34% (183,749).
Hahn was stomped. Changing the Democratic Party is best done in races where we get to choose which Democrat we prefer.
Posted at 11:46 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Wednesday, May 11, 2005
California 2005 Special Election
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the LA Times:
The possibility of a special election has hung over California since January, when the governor outlined his proposals for overhauling state government this year. He said that if lawmakers balked at his ideas, he would take them to voters.So far, legislative leaders have reached no agreement with the governor on his agenda, and many Democrats are not inclined to compromise with him, saying that his proposals have not generated popular support.
Schwarzenegger's poll numbers have slid precipitously as he has pushed his plans. "If the governor prevails on most, if not all, of his proposals, this will give him a resurgence of momentum and likely break the back of the Democratic opposition," said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University. "If he loses, after putting all of his prestige on the line, this will cut the legs out from under him. We're really looking at a crossroads here."
We are looking at as many as 8 ballot initiatives. So what is each side bringing to the table?
From the Republicans:
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has yet to call the election he has been considering all year. But his allies said they have submitted petitions to place on the ballot three measures he favors. They would curb state spending, strip legislators of the power to decide the boundaries of their districts and delay tenure for public school teachers.Along with an initiative that challenges unions' political might, on which Schwarzenegger has not taken a public position, the measures would chip at the clout and financing of the Democratic Party and the authority of the Legislature — the one branch of government Democrats have controlled for the last decade.
From the Democrats:
Groups aligned with Democratic lawmakers announced that they had submitted petitions for an initiative that would lower prescription drug prices and for another to re-regulate the state's energy market.Passage of either would be a rebuke to Schwarzenegger, who vetoed legislative versions of the measures last year.
I don't see how Arnold can chicken-out on the Special Election. But, don't see how he could end in any better position since this would serve as yet another excuse for the growing number of Governorator critics to spend a pile of money bashing Arnold. Then again, this is California so it really doesn't matter what one does (as long as it is done colorfully).
Posted at 09:03 AM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Saturday, May 07, 2005
Dems: Stem Cell Matrix
Posted by Bob BrighamSan Francisco's new Stem-Cell research headquarters will allow an agressive young mayor to nationalize a cultural wedge issue that cuts through the heart of the GOP base. Democrats can make an investment in nationalizing this issue as tactically perfect in the short term and paying long term dividends as the research progresses.
From the San Francisco Chronicle:
San Francisco was chosen as the headquarters city Friday for California's $3 billion stem cell program, overcoming a strong challenge from San Diego and Sacramento in a battle that was decided mainly on regional loyalties.Mayor Gavin Newsom called it a historic achievement for a city and region struggling to find its economic footing after suffering through the collapse of the dot-com bubble.
"This secures our future as a point of destination for discovery," Newsom said. [...]
[Newsom] said the "fundamental" factor was San Francisco's global status as a trend-setting place where experimentation is part of the daily fabric of life.
While Newsom has only been mayor for 16 months, he already found success at leading the Democratic Party through bold action that nationalizes our values.
Newsom was vindicated for the Winter of Love, he is now pushing forward on all fronts.
San Francisco Examiner columnist P.J. Corkerly:
On Gavin Newsom's desk in City Hall, near his iPod with its 2,198 tunes, sits a black binder called "The Matrix." It's not the wine list from Matrix/Fillmore, the sleek urban bar in Cow Hollow that he founded and to which he still retreats (the second-story office of Matrix/Fillmore is a kind of unofficial second mayoral office). … Rather, the black binder is one of five or six such binders — and one tattered magazine from May 24, 1968, with an Andy Warhol pop-art cover — that he refers to often in the course of the day.The Matrix book itself is something new in U.S. politics: a constantly updated (via PDAs and pencils) database, possible only in this era, and probably manageable only by a mayor interested in weaving his knowledge of the dynamics of day-to-day politics with the data-weaving possibilities of the tech he also loves so well.
What is the Matrix?
The Matrix is a written record of every promise he has made as a candidate and as mayor, and of every idea he has uttered or promised to look into. The Matrix also records every action taken, or not taken, on these promises and ideas — and why. ... Ed Koch, the former mayor of New York, used to get in citizens' faces and sputter, "How'm I doin'?" He would have loved The Matrix.It's candid. Of his own proposal to station fire trucks and firefighters on street corners as a crime deterrent, Newsom's Matrix says, "Terrible idea."
"You succeed by failing," says Newsom. "I hope to keep embarrassing myself. It's only by throwing out the ideas that prove to be bad as well as those that are obviously good that you make any progress.
"But you need accountability. That's why I have The Matrix. The day gets so busy you can't otherwise keep track of everything. It's good politics, too. People are always happy to meet the mayor; they have ideas and problems. But if you don't follow up, then at the end of the term, yeah, you've met a lot of people. Disappointed people.
Keeping track of the push for stem-cells will keep the issue in the limelight politically as Newsom does everything possible to foster the science.
While 2004 presidential candidates were running from the issue of Gay Marriage, Newsom was establishing himself as a civil rights leader. While everyone running in 2008 is seeking to be known nationally, Newsom is finding success at global recognition.
It is one thing when a politican can bring together the money and wherewithal to fix a pothole. But it is on an entirely different level when the potential returns are in the range that stem-cells offer.
And it is a great issue for Democrats and disaster for Republicans. First, the GOP needs to worry about the red state brain drain that will result from Newsom's capitolization of San Francisco as the bio-tech leader. Second, the GOP distance from most Americans on the issue has significant backlash potential.
Newsom deserves much credit to-date, but now the real work begins, as a Chronicle editorial noted:
But city officials, led by Mayor Gavin Newsom, also made a sterling case to be the home of the $3 billion California Institute for Regenerative Medicine. Against a tight deadline, they put together a package that will provide the stem-cell center with an incentive package estimated to be worth $17 million, including 10 years of free rent, nearly $1 million worth of hotel accommodations and free use of laboratory facilities.But now the hard work begins. California voters decided to invest billions on the promise of pioneering research, even though there is no guarantee of success. But the Golden State was built on such visionary risks, and now San Francisco must show it is the proper place to lead this breakthrough medical and technological effort.
Godspeed.
Posted at 04:53 PM in 2008 President - Democrats, California | Technorati
Friday, May 06, 2005
LA-Mayor: Fundraising Blowout
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the LA Times:
Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, who is aggressively raising money to finance his second bid for the city's highest office, had raised almost $1.7 million more than incumbent James K. Hahn as the Los Angeles mayoral race entered its final stage.Campaign finance reports filed Thursday showed that Villaraigosa had collected more than $2.8 million for the runoff campaign through the end of last month compared with less than $1.2 million for Hahn.
Ouch. Villariagosa's huge lead in the polls appears to have short-circuited Hahn's fundraising.
But the slower pace of Hahn's fundraising adds to the impression of a mayor "floundering" in his reelection quest, said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a USC political science professor."It appears as though the mayor has totally stalled, and that the money is on Villaraigosa," she said. "That's the perception, and in politics, perception is reality."
Consistently low poll ratings have made it hard for Hahn to draw support from donors who normally would lavish contributions on a sitting mayor with leverage over business interests at City Hall.
Villaraigosa's campaign manager, Ace Smith, said Hahn's latest fundraising report showed that the mayor is "in deep trouble."
"An incumbent mayor being out-raised by a challenger is a sign of a critically ill campaign," Smith said.
Posted at 01:23 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
LA-Mayor: Villaraigosa Stomping Hahn
Posted by Bob BrighamOver at the Villaraigosa Blog, they have released the latest tracking numbers (Survey USA):
Channel 7 released a new mayoral poll by Survey USA today. The results:
Villaraigosa: 62%
Hahn: 3%
Undecided: 5%
The reaction?
LA's had enough of Hahn. The only demographic that Hahn beats Villaraigosa on is among Republicans (62-37) and Conservatives (53-45). Among everyone else, Villaraigosa leads; and in the Valley Antonio holds a 20% lead over Hahn.
Not only does it appears that Villaraigosa is set to demolish Hahn, but it also looks like he has the support of just about every prominent politician. I assume some of that is just the bandwagon effect, but doesn't Hahn have any friends?
The last numbers Swing State Project has looked at were Villaraigosa - 53%, Hahn - 35%.
For Hahn, things have gone from bad to worse. I'm sure the race will tighten in the final days, but not enough for Hahn to finish respectably.
Posted at 10:45 AM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Saturday, April 30, 2005
The Uber-Campaign
Posted by Bob BrighamLast night I was at a fundraiser for a first-time candidate running for State Assembly. Stop what you're thinking, the idea you have in your head about what that event might have been like isn't relevant. Schädelmann sets the stage:
A virtual who's who of past and present elected officials were on hand in support of her candidacy, including Supervsiors Jake Mc Goldrick and Gerardo Sandoval, and City Attorney Dennis Hererra. Former California Assembly Speaker Leo McCarthy was also in attendance (and serves as the campaign's chair) and various other past elected officials were there to show their support.
Oh yeah, and a junior Senator from the East Coast flew in for the event. And the ballroom atop the Merchant's Exchange was filled with more than 500 people. And the people were more excited by the candidate than they were with the Senator, who happens to be John Kerrey.
Seeing this made me think of the Uber-Campaign, running for the legislature like you're running for Congress, running for Congress like you're running for Senate and running for Senate like you're funning for President.
The event was for Janet Reilly -- Democrat running for an open seat in the 12th Assembly District. The crowd was huge, so large in fact that I got tired of bumping into people and left before Kerrey showed up, but Schädelmann reports:
While Kerry' presence was certainly appreciated by those who attended, his remarks were short and the crowd's enthusiasm for McCarthy and Reilly was a lot stronger. [...]But to sum up - while Kerry was a draw, the clear star of the evening was Janet. And if one was measuring charisma wattage, Janet, with the courage of her convictions and her ability to communicate, was blowing doors off the 2004 Presidential nominee.
That is the Uber Campaign: have a statewide caliber event, bring in last year's standard bearer, turn out a huge crowd, and remain the center of attention.
It was a solid event, very well managed. They had volunteers working the elevators to keep people moving to the top floor, more than a dozen working sign in (which moved quickly because the majority pre-paid by credit card online and could grab a pre-printed nametag instead of writing a check). The focus was clearly on the campaign organization with around two dozen working to get people into the room with only two more pouring drinks (only problem).
They had a videographer and I saw two people who take great pictures snapping digitals, which should provide some great shots of the high-energy candidate working the room like a pro.
In post-modern politics, there is more to lose by not meeting expectations than there is by overkill. People want overwhelming campaigns, and it is actually the internet that will keep them personal.
When there was a misconception about the event in the paper, the campaign used their blog to set the record straight:
We got a spurt of press today on the Kerry event, with the Examiner and Chronicle both running items. If you read the Chronicle article, they had one fact wrong. Tickets start at $25 for the event, not $250. You can reserve your tickets by clicking here.
The Uber-Campaign is more concerned about cash flow than warchests, getting buy-in and then turning that into on-the-ground support. Many of the people who paid $25 to attend will use email to turn out their friends when they throw a house party (it is a sign of a good Bay Area fundraiser if Kos shows up...he's in the UK, but there were two bloggers there).
Bigger, better, faster. Why measure in inches when you can measure in yards?
Posted at 03:20 PM in California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Thursday, April 28, 2005
CA-Gov: A.G. Bill Lockyer Abandons Gubernatorial Bid
Posted by Bob BrighamAP:
Attorney General Bill Lockyer abandoned plans to run for governor next year and will instead run for state treasurer, a source close to Lockyer told The Associated Press on Thursday.Lockyer, who told reporters as recently as last month that he planned to run for the Democratic nomination to take on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, was expected to announce his new plans Thursday afternoon. [...]
Lockyer's surprise decision transforms the field of Democrats vying to succeed Angelides in 2006. They include Sen. Joe Dunn, D-Garden Grove; John Chiang, a member of the state Board of Equalization; and Assembly Majority Leader Dario Frommer, D-Glendale.
For anyone not closely following California politics, it is now readily clear that Phil Angelides is the top dog moving up while Lockyer tries for Angelides' hand-me-downs.
more...
Winners
- Angelides: officially the top Democrat in the state.
- The Party: Democrats still mad about Lockyer's re-call vote can now brag that such actions will not be rewarded.
- LGBT Activists: One of the clearest contrasts between Angelides and Lockyer was over gay marriage. In addition to gay activists being vindicated by the court, they have also been proven as enough of a power to scare out Lockyer.
- Schwarzenegger: An expensive primary would have focused on who could bash the Governator the most.
Losers
- Lockyer: Best case scenario is now a demotion and the Sacto gossips will focus on his weakness.
- Steve Westly: Controller Steve Westly was considering tossing his hat in the ring. It could be argued that he would have had a chance in a three-way race, but I just can't see any way he could best Angelides in a head-to-head matchup.
- Other Treasurer Candidate: State Senator Joe Dunn, Board of Ed's John Chiang and Assemblymember Dario Frommer will now have to compete with Lockyer's $11 million warchest with Lockyer having the potential to win Treasurer out of pity as something of a consilation prize.
This will continue to break rapidly, stay tuned.
Posted at 03:23 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
CA-Gov: Schwarzenegger Flunks Education Poll
Posted by Bob BrighamFollowing yesterday's new poll numbers that showed Schwarzenegger with a re-elect number of 29, we now have a major new poll on education. This poll isn't just bad, this is have your Secretary of Edcation resign bad. From the San Francisco Chronicle:
Sacramento -- Richard Riordan, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's secretary for education, announced his resignation Wednesday as a new poll showed the governor's approval rating plummeting to an all-time low, largely because voters don't support his handling of education.Schwarzenegger's education policy, backed by Riordan, has faltered this year as the governor has come under intense fire by school officials for reneging on a promise to devote more money to education in the state budget.
Before we get into the poll numbers, one thing that pops in my mind whenever I think of former LA Mayor Richard Riordan.
His tenure was marred by an incident last summer when he told a 6-year-old girl named Isis that her name means "dirty, stupid girl." The remark, caught on camera, prompted some to call for Riordan to resign, but he apologized and, with Schwarzenegger's support, stayed on.
Anyway, in California, the Secretary of Education doesn't really do anything other than show up when the Governor has a presser about kids. Governor Schwarzenegger's Administration may be trying to get a clean slate now that Riordian is leaving, but this is Arnold's disaster and the Governor bears full responsibility.
Back to the poll, 2,502 registered voters, April 4-17, ± 2 pts:
Even with his low approval ratings, however, the poll shows that many voters agree with the Republican governor's stated goals to make education the state government's top priority and to change the teacher tenure system.But asked whose approach they prefer in fixing the state educational system, 39 percent of likely voters cited "Democrats in the Legislature," compared to just 25 percent who cited Schwarzenegger's plans, and 15 percent who favored the approach of the Republicans in the Legislature.
Survey director Mark Baldassare says the governor's latest poll numbers underscore the increasingly deep worries of residents about the state of education in Democrat-leaning California as the governor pushes plans for a special election later this year.
"Concerns about his handling of education issues has now generalized to more global concerns about his overall leadership,'' said Baldassare. "The governor -- who had been so successful in communicating with people outside his party, telling them he was working in their best interests -- has lost considerable support among independents and Democrats.''
And the numbers could still be moving. This poll was in the field for almost two weeks and was pretty stale by the time it was released. It shows a 43% approval rating. But yesterday's poll went into the field after this poll concluded, and showed a 38% approval.
My gut says that Schwarzenegger has yet to bottom out.
Posted at 09:35 AM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
Wednesday, April 27, 2005
CA-Gov: Schwarzenegger Falling and Retreating
Posted by Bob BrighamNot long ago, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was expected to coast to any easy re-election. But in a few short months, the Schwarzenegger administration has nose-dived and is on course to crash and burn in California's 2006 gubernatorial campaign.
First up, not what Schwarzenegger wants to see in the news:
OAKLAND, CALIF. — California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's "Year of Reform" is fast becoming a year of retreat.What began in January as an outsized agenda — encompassing a range of issues as arcane as redistricting and as controversial as merit pay for teachers — has steadily shrunk as a chastened governor is set back on his heels, stung by his own missteps and an increasingly emboldened opposition.
Already, he has abandoned an initiative to privatize the state's pension system, as well as promises to drastically cut the bureaucracy in Sacramento. Now, he appears to be considering a plan to drop the merit-pay measure. Add in a few ill-conceived comments antagonizing immigrants and nurses, and Governor Schwarzenegger has reached a low point of his administration.
The problem with California is that when a politician is perceived to be weak, they are eaten alive. Which is why the latest poll numbers are even worse news for the Governator. From the subscription only Hotline:
Pollster Mark Mellman: "Schwarzenegger's failures and his failings and his battle with teachers, nurses and public safety workers have taken a tremendous toll on his image. He's nose-dived and is now worse off than George Bush in California"
The poll (onducted 4/18-21 for the California Teachers Association; surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error ± 3.5%) shows Schwarzenegger with a 29% re-elect number and an approval rating of only 38%.
The last poll I noticed had Schwarzenegger at 43% (down from 59% in January).
Has Governor Schwarzenegger really fallen more than 20 pts so far this year?
It really doesn't matter...at this point, the sharks smell blood in the water and no matter how much Arnold retreats on the issues, he will be chased down and ripped apart.
Cover the eyes of the children, this is going to get ugly.
Posted at 05:22 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
Sunday, April 24, 2005
LA-Mayor: Hahn Cracks in Debate
Posted by Bob BrighamAP:
Struggling in the polls, Hahn assumed the role of a challenger, accusing Villaraigosa of being the candidate of inertia and shopworn ideas."(Villaraigosa) wants to defend the status quo," said Hahn, who is seeking a second, four-year term.
When the incumbent calls the challenger the status quo candidate it is time for a serious ass whoopin. If that isn't enough evidence, you know Villaraigosa is going to win when Hahn is bogged down in denials:
Hahn responded by saying that "no one has found that anyone has done anything wrong in my administration so far."
Villaraigos is going to kick Hahn's ass. My bet is it will be a double-digit victory.
Posted at 12:39 AM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Friday, April 22, 2005
CA-Gov: Schwarzenegger's Office FUBAR
Posted by Bob BrighamPeter Nicholas and Robert Salladay have a must-read article that goes to great pains to avoid using the word, 'clusterfuck' when the story seems like it wants to type the word itself.
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is facing infighting among his senior staff and campaign team, which has contributed to a series of political missteps that threaten the once soaring governor's ambitious agenda, more than a dozen aides and lawmakers said Thursday.
With a lede like that, you know it is going to get ugly:
The problems are considered bad enough that they are expected to be discussed today as the governor's senior aides gather for a strategy meeting.Schwarzenegger is reeling after successive policy reversals, gaffes and clashes with well-organized opponents have deflated his once-buoyant approval ratings. The latest setback came this week when he told a newspaper publishers association that the United States should "close its borders." He later apologized, explaining that he misspoke because of his imperfect command of English.
But a range of advisors see the remark as a sign of deeper strains. People with ties to the administration use words like "dysfunctional" and "civil war'' to describe the atmosphere within the warren of offices where Schwarzenegger and his top aides work.
I thought "dysfunctional" might be a little strong, until I read this:
Lawmakers say they are confused about who speaks for the administration and who has the authority to close political deals. [...]One lawmaker, who would not be identified, said Schwarzenegger's top staff made clear that they, and not Finance Director Tom Campbell, should be consulted on budget policy — although a governor's finance director traditionally serves as chief budget negotiator.
Here is the political definition of clusterfuck (and a sign Schwarzenegger's Chief of Staff is failing):
People close to the office describe a hub-and-spoke system with Schwarzenegger at the center and various aides having little idea what others are doing. Though that structure has centralized power at Schwarzenegger's desk, downsides include confusion and a lack of coordination among staff members.
And the fact that Democrats can win is increasing all of these strains:
A consequence of the internal infighting has been an increasingly emboldened opposition, with Democrats in the Legislature spurning talk of compromise and expressing optimism that they can unseat Schwarzenegger in 2006 — a prospect that seemed far-fetched as little as three months ago."While the governor was still in the planning stage, still debating within his inner circle which direction he wanted to take … the opposition got organized and mobilized,'' Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican strategist, said, citing the vocal protests mounted by teachers, nurses, police and firefighters. "He got outflanked."
But the last line brings up the new talking point on Schwarzenegger:
Then he retreated.
Schwarzenegger talks big...and then he reteats. He doesn't have the team he would need to win, the civil war is costing him, and it is looking more and more likely that California will eat him up and spit him out before he loses re-election.
Posted at 11:52 AM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
Thursday, April 21, 2005
LA-Mayor: Spending Cap and Gloves Come Off
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the LA Times:
Villaraigosa campaign strategist Ace Smith said the city councilman, who raised $1.8 million by last Sunday, would collect as much as he can."Jim Hahn ran one of the sleaziest campaigns in American history four years ago," said Smith, referring to the June 2001 matchup in which Villaraigosa lost to Hahn. "We know we are going to need every dollar possible to respond."
Hahn campaign strategist Kam Kuwata said that "all the money in the world cannot cover up" Villaraigosa's "very shaky record" in public office.
Hahn and Villaraigosa, meanwhile, spent the day attacking each other's records on crime and education.
Two weeks ago I noted Villaraigosa's financial advantage. However, both numbers reported at that time showed a low level of interest with less than impressive contribution totals. Now, the independent spending it giving Hahn temporary relief from being at a financial disadvantage.
Mayor James K. Hahn and his opponent, Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, can spend an unlimited amount of money on their May 17 runoff election because the cap was lifted Wednesday when two unions with close ties to Hahn reported spending $320,000 to support his reelection.Hahn has so far benefited from $402,632 in independent spending, primarily from unions, while Villaraigosa has benefited from $121,865, less than a third as much.
There are no limits on independent expenditures, but spending more than $200,000 for or against a candidate removes the $1.8-million cap on how much candidates can spend.
The election is May 17th and with less than a month to go, this race is going to get expensive and nasty. Here are the latest poll numbers that I've seen:
Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa has pulled ahead of Mayor James Hahn by 18 points in the race to lead the nation's second-largest city, according to a Los Angeles Times poll released Tuesday.Voters would oust Hahn for Villaraigosa by a margin of 53 percent to 35 percent if the election were held today, according to a survey released on the newspaper's Web site. Twelve percent were undecided.
The poll held few positive signs for Hahn, with nearly two-thirds of likely voters saying they believed his policies have left the city no better off and desiring a new direction.
A half a million in IE money isn't to do too much for an unpopular mayor who is trailing by 18 points.
Posted at 12:39 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Wednesday, April 20, 2005
SF-Mayor (2007): Time Magazine Clocks Newsom at 80%
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the San Francisco Examiner:
Time puts Newsom's approval rating at 80 percent, which Newsom political consultant Eric Jaye said is "in the ballpark.""It may be a few points higher or lower," said Jaye. "He is enjoying an extraordinary level of popular support given how contentious San Francisco politics are."
During his brief tenure in office Newsom has been the subject of glowing pieces in GQ, Esquire, Harper's Bazaar, and the New Yorker. Time also singled out Newsom for its 2004 "People Who Mattered" feature.
The first paragraph says he's looking good for re-election in 2007, the last paragraph reminds us why he might be looking good in 2008.
Posted at 03:32 PM in 2007 Elections, 2008 President - Democrats, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Thursday, April 14, 2005
CA-Gov: Phil Angelides is Running for Governor
Posted by Bob BrighamAP:
AN FRANCISCO - How could California's charisma-challenged state treasurer even dream of trying to unseat Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger? Phil Angelides cites the advice he gives his three daughters: "It never matters what the odds are. What matters are your beliefs, and what you do to pursue them."The 51-year-old Angelides has become the first Democrat to officially announce he is running against Schwarzenegger, who is expected to seek re-election in 2006.
Despite some recent setbacks, Schwarzenegger remains popular in a state that has almost always elected its governors to second terms. But political observers warn that he should not underestimate Angelides, a man regarded as shrewd and aggressive by his friends, ruthless and mean-spirited by his enemies.
Schwarzenegger has been tanking in the polls and is far weaker in California than many out-of-state pundits assume.
Soon after Schwarzenegger got elected in a recall election in 2003, Angelides positioned himself as the "anti-Arnold," portraying the highly popular Republican as an out-of-touch plutocrat who failed to keep his campaign promises — a strategy that was seen as foolhardy until Schwarzenegger suffered some reversals of fortune.Assailed by teachers, firefighters and other public employees, Schwarzenegger last week scrapped his effort to privatize state pensions, the latest in a series of retreats in the face of opposition from unions and other Democratic constituencies. Polls show his approval ratings dropping below 50 percent for the first time.
"Arnold was elected because he said he was going to do extraordinary things for people, but he's turned out to be an enormous disappointment," Angelides said. "The thing I find most mystifying is why someone who came in with such enormous political capital chose not to use it."
When conventional wisdom said Schwarzenegger would sail to re-election, Angelides was dogging the Governor. Now that the push against the Governor has paid off by lower his approval ratings, Angelides is being recognized as a smart Democrat willing to stand up to Schwarzenegger.
A Sacramento native of Greek descent, Angelides got his start in politics as a student at Harvard, protesting the Vietnam War and campaigning against President Nixon in 1972. Angelides went on to make a fortune as a real estate developer before returning to politics full-time. As state Democratic chairman in 1992, Angelides helped Bill Clinton win California.But he also came under fire during that year's bruising Senate contest, in which Barbara Boxer narrowly beat GOP candidate Bruce Herschensohn after a last-minute leak from a Democratic operative that Herschensohn had visited strip clubs. Angelides denied involvement in the leak but later said the information was fair game.
"Angelides is a mean-minded, terrible partisan hack," said GOP strategist Ken Khachigian, who ran the Herschensohn campaign and previously worked for Nixon and President Reagan. "Arnold can expect a mean gut fighter who'll run a very hard-hitting, dirty campaign. He'll stoop to anything."
This is exactly the type of nominee the Democratic Party needs to win. And for all you east-coasters, how is this for a stamp of approval?
Angelides has also leveraged his role as an officer of CalPERS, the nation's largest state pension fund, to push for greater transparency in the financial markets."He's smart, he's aggressive, and he's creative," said New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who claims he and his fellow Democrat are "joined at the hip" in their work crusading for corporate accountability.
Posted at 07:55 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California, Democrats | Technorati
CA-10: NDC and Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher
Posted by Bob BrighamIf you have a moment, go read Atrios on the Bankruptcy Bill. The good people of CA-10, and all Democrats for that matter, should be ashamed of Tauscher today.
Tauscher is often mentioned as a possible Vice Presidential nominee. Let's just say that speculation is no longer necessary.
The NDC email Atrios cites was also picked up by David Sirota. Interesting when you consider that NDC representatives are so scared of being exposed that they've hauled Sirota's boss to the Hill to be yelled at because David has an email account.
Posted at 10:25 AM in California | Technorati
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
TX-22 & CA-46: Defense of the Clones Part II
Posted by Tim TagarisThe wife and daughter of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, have been paid more than $500,000 since 2001 by Mr. DeLay's political action and campaign committees, according to a New York Times review of disclosure statements filed with the Federal Election Commission and separate records in Texas.
"I think that Chris Shays again has demonstrated he's totally out of touch with what the mainstream of the Republican members of Congress are feeling and that he is disloyal to the party and to people as individuals," said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif.
California Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher: Wife Rhonda Carmony makes $40,000 a year as his campaign manager.
According to FEC reports, Rohrabacher's wife is still receiving bi-weekly payments of $1169.85 since the conclusion of his last campaign. She is the only "staffer" still drawing a salary.
Posted at 08:30 PM in California, Texas | Technorati
Tuesday, April 12, 2005
CA-26: David Dreier Stonewalls
Posted by Bob BrighamRaw Story has the scoop:
Ranking Democrat on the House Rules Committee Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY) penned another letter to Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (D-CA) asking for ethics hearings Monday, RAW STORY has learned. Dreier has previously demurred to hold hearings.Chairman Dreier responded last week in a letter to Rep. Slaughter stating, "As we move forward with the Committee's agenda in the 109th Congress, I will keep your request in mind."
As Rules chairman, Dreier sits in a powerful position relative to ethics charges that have swirled around House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX). Dreier gave $5,000 to DeLay's legal defense fund, one of the larger donors that includes much of the Republican House caucus.
He'll keep ethics "in mind"? Slaughter penned the appropriate response...
"I am disappointed, however, that you provided no timeframe as to when a hearing on this important matter will be scheduled," Slaughter said in a statement provided to RAW STORY. "It is imperative that the Committee hold hearings on this as soon as possible. I would suggest that we do so within in the next few weeks."Dreier could not be reached for comment.
Just because Dreier is from a district traditionally considered safe doesn't mean that he'll escape the wrath of his constituents for his role in facilitating Tom DeLay's corruption. Dreier is both preventing justice and contributing to the perpetrator. Voters tend to notice things like this.
UPDATE: Rep. Slaughter has Daily Kos diary with more.
Posted at 01:09 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati
CA-Gov: Arnold Schwarzenegger's $60 Million Report Card
Posted by Bob BrighamMy how convention wisdom evolves. Six months ago, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was expected to cruz to re-election. Now he's in for the battle of his life, from the Contra Costa Times:
California's teachers are girding for a battle royal.The 335,000-member California Teachers Association began assembling a $60 million war chest last weekend to fight off Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's anticipated actions on school funding guarantees, teacher pay and tenure, all of which are expected to appear on a special election ballot in November.
Even in California, $60 million is a huge campaign fund. And this is just the teachers. Add in the nurses and the firefighters and the unions and the Democratic Party and the people, and it is easy to see how a quarter of a billion dollars could be spent against Schwarzenegger in the next two years. In all probability, there could be far more spent. Here is a key point from the story:
But California teachers can opt out of their union's political activities at the local, state and national level without losing any of their rights and privileges, said CTA vice president Dave Sanchez.Some teachers take that option. Others, like Mt. Diablo union president and CTA state representative Mike Noce, think the political lobbying is so worthwhile that they contribute more.
"This equalizes the little guy," said Noce. "It gives me a voice in Sacramento."
The current political climate has incensed teachers to such a degree that several teachers who initially opted out came back to Noce to change their minds, he said. Even political neophytes have hit the streets, demonstrating outside San Francisco's Ritz-Carlton Hotel last week when Schwarzenegger was in town to raise campaign money.
People were unhappy with Gray Davis. But when it comes to Schwarzenegger, the people are pissed off.
Posted at 12:26 PM in 2005 Elections, 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
LA Mayor: Antonio Villaraigosa Wins
Posted by Bob BrighamI tend to think of campaigns as a science as much as an art. For you scientists, my question is whether there is any possible scenario where Antonio Villaraigosa could lose after this assist?
LOS ANGELES - Basketball legend Earvin "Magic" Johnson endorsed Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor Monday, giving the challenger one of the race's prized endorsements and another A-list supporter in the politically crucial black community.
Johnson played for Hahn last time, but no more...
One of Southern California's most popular figures and now a successful businessman, Johnson endorsed Hahn over Villaraigosa in their runoff four years ago, part of a surge of black support that helped secure Hahn's victory in 2001.
Showing once again he has political game, Johnson explains:
Speaking at one of his health clubs in the San Fernando Valley, Johnson's announcement became as much a denunciation of Mayor James Hahn's leadership as an embrace of Villaraigosa's candidacy. The former Los Angeles Lakers star said the administration had been crippled by an ongoing corruption investigation."You can't point to the Hahn administration and find 10 things he has accomplished because he was so bogged down by the scandal situation," Johnson said. "The city was not moving forward." [...]
Johnson was outraged, like many blacks, when Hahn helped push out the city's black police chief, Bernard Parks, in 2002. There were other problems, too — most important, Hahn's failure to do more to create jobs, Johnson said.
"I expected him to be like his dad, and that didn't happen," Johnson said, referring to late county Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, a revered figure in the Los Angeles black community.
This is getting the play in the news it deserves. This is all-star. This is a done deal.
Posted at 09:05 AM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Saturday, April 09, 2005
LA Mayor Villaraigosa
Posted by Bob BrighamI haven't written about the L.A. mayoral race, because frankly I have little interest. And judging by the latest fundraising numbers, I'm not alone. But all signs point towards Antonio Villaraigosa easily winning the runoff. That will be made easier with his financial advantage, from the AP
LOS ANGELES - Mayoral candidate Antonio Villaraigosa has reported raising $652,000 over several weeks for the May runoff election, grabbing an early edge against Mayor James Hahn.Hahn, seeking a second four-year term, trailed his fellow Democrat with about $408,000 in donations over the period, campaign figures from March 9 to April 2 showed. [...]
Along with at least a temporary financial edge, the figures, released Thursday, also give Villaraigosa's campaign a symbolic boost, particularly since Hahn held a fundraising edge in the primary season.
Sounds like momentum.
Posted at 03:05 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Friday, April 08, 2005
Dianne Feinstein's damage worse than Lou Sheldon or Traditional Values Coalition
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the A.P.
Organizers of the gay pride parade held in the city every June announced Thursday that Feinstein was the winner of this year's "Pink Brick" award, a dubious honor bestowed on the public figure the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender Pride Committee decides has done the most to damage the gay rights cause. President Bush and talk show host Laura Schlessinger were the previous winners.Joey Cain, president of the committee said Feinstein was nominated for the prize for telling reporters the morning after Bush's re-election that progress on the gay marriage front "has been too much, too fast, too soon." [...]
Feinstein's competition for the prize, which is the gay community's answer to Hollywood's "Golden Raspberry" awards honoring the worst in film, was the Rev. Lou Sheldon, a vocal opponent of gay rights, and the Traditional Values Coalition, the Orange County-based organization Sheldon leads.
Feinstein was out of line with her comments against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. Remember, Newsom has been vindicated for his civil rights stance. Feinstein's DLC-style attack on Newsom was more about him going too far too fast. She's jealous that Newsom has been a better Mayor than she was. While Feinstein faced a recall, Newsom is more popular than chocolate. Feinstein was wrong, Newsom was right, and now Feinstein is getting what she deserves.
Posted at 04:47 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Action Hero Chickens Out in Berkeley -- Live Blog
Posted by Tim TagarisNot a very good week for California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the Bay Area. First their were the mass protests in San Francisco, his approval rating dropping to a paltry 43%, and today, the action hero known as Governor was a no-show for a speaking engagement with Bayer.
Girlie Man? Yeah.
Ahnold, who is "not beholden to special intersts," has taken tons of money from the pharmaceutical indusrty, vetoed a bill making safe importation of affordable medicine. Today, the California Nurses Association, Machinists Local 1546, Teamsters, and teachers all showed up at the event to protest to support patients, students, workers, and affordable health care.
The only person missing was Arnold. (Liveblog in the extended copy)
I just got off the phone with Bob Brigham who, again, was at the event. He said that the rain was coming down so hard that you could see the animals marching two by two to the ark. He told me that the event was very well organized and attended, especially since no one really knew about it until yesterday.
"The passion is certainly here," Bob said.
I also had a chance to speak with frequent Kos and MyDD contributor, Paul in Berkeley. He said, "We drew a line and said, the Bay Area is not a place where he is welcome. He should stick to doing visits to shopping malls in orange county, because the bay area is an Arnold free zone."
As I was on the phone with Bob and Paul, I could hear all kinds of people driving by and honking their horns in solidarity. The California Nurses Association is to be commneded especially. They were the ones that gave Bob the bottle of water as he breathed in the smoke from smoke bombs at the San Francisco rally; today, they were there with an umbrella for him. They are really taking the fight to the action hero.
The moment that word came that Arnold had cancelled the event, a celebration ensued among the dozens and dozens of protesters in attendance.
If you are in California, take a look at the campaign website of Phil Angelides. I know at least one member of his staff, and I am very impressed by what they are doing. Maybe you can volunteer a few hours if you live out that way?
Posted at 01:17 PM in 2006 Elections - State, 2006 Elections - State, Activism, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Arnold Schwarzenegger down to 43%
Posted by Bob BrighamSAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is showing himself to be an ordinary mortal after all with a significant policy retreat on Thursday and a new poll showing his approval rating down sharply.Swept into office in an unprecedented recall election in 2003, the Republican's approval rating fell to 43 percent from 59 percent in January, according to a Survey and Policy Research Institute poll released on Thursday.
I'm heading to the a Schwarzenegger protest right now. The link to the last protest is here, today's is in Berkeley.
More to come...
Posted at 11:03 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Activism, California | Technorati
Thursday, April 07, 2005
Schwarzenegger loses pension privatization battle
Posted by Bob BrighamHours after the news broke of the new Schwarzenegger poll, the Governor has admitted defeat and given up his plan to privatize pensions. From The AP:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. - Under pressure from firefighters and police officers, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday backed off, for now, his plan to privatize California's public employee pension system.The Republican said "misconceptions" among firefighters and police officers that privatization would strip them of death and disability benefits had come to dominate the issue.
Over the past few weeks, Schwarzenegger has waged a campaign to put privatization on the ballot during a special election next fall. But on Thursday, he said he would wait until the June 2006 election if lawmakers did not craft a compromise measure in the coming months.
This is a major defeat for the embattled Governor. Having this on the spring ballot prevents Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign from coordinating with the initiative money. Schwarzenegger has already dropped 10 pts. this year and now that it is clear he can be beaten everyone will pile on. This week has been a major turning point in California's 2006 gubernatorial campaign. Schwarzenegger is unpopular, on the run, and things are only going to get worse. It is so bad the Governator can't even visit San Francisco without huge protests.
The Democrats are now favored in the 2006 race for governor.
Posted at 04:56 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (1) | Technorati
Schwarzenegger's double-digit crash in polls
Posted by Bob BrighamFrom the LA Times:
He's too interested in PR gimmicks, many voters think, and should be putting more effort into dealing with legislators.Fewer than half of Californians now approve of the way the governor is handling his job, a sharp decline since January.
Moreover, people think California has gotten off on the wrong track.
These are the findings of a statewide poll to be released today by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State.
California's 2006 gubernatorial race is moving and reading through these numbers I'm sensing more of an ongoing trend than a brief shift.
Voters were read these statements, with the order rotated from call to call, and asked to agree or disagree:• "He's doing a good job of working with legislators and getting things done." Agree 43%, disagree 43%.
• "He's right to bypass lawmakers and focus on his ballot initiatives." Agree 38%, disagree 47%.
• "He's too interested in gimmicks, public relations and image." Agree 49%, disagree 41%.
• "He should be putting more effort into working with legislators so he'd get more done." Agree 62%, disagree 25%. Even Republicans agree, 49% to 34%.
And it isn't just the usual suspects who have turned, but independents are moving as well:
The voter groups most sour on Schwarzenegger are Democrats and women, L.A. and Bay Area residents, blacks, Latinos and Asians. No surprises there. But it's significant that independents tilt slightly against him. Republicans remain his biggest boosters.The governor's job performance is approved by 49% of voters, disapproved by 38%. His rating is worse among all adults: 43% approval, 43% disapproval — a steep slide since it was 59%-26% in January. Polls last year had shown Schwarzenegger with stratospheric job ratings in the high 60s.
People also were asked a standard question about whether they think "things in California are going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track." Only 39% answered right direction; 49% said wrong track. In January, it was almost reversed: 52% right track, 35% wrong direction.
Taken together, it is hard to imagine how the Governor could have done worse in the early months of 2005.
While his celebrity got him into office and his gimmicky events and ballot initiatives raised his approval, it is now clear that voters see through his tricks. With no foundation to fall back upon, it appears the Governator is heading for termination.
Posted at 01:13 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
California needs a real Governor
Posted by Bob BrighamRead the protest live-blog HERE.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is no longer the hero, he is the villan. Tonight every news station from Santa Rosa to Santa Cruz had a truck to document the fact that teachers, nurses, and firefighters know Schwarzenegger is screwing up California. Tomorrow, every paper will have coverage of how the people who make California great have joined together to explain how Schwarzenegger is hurting the people of California.
Every day from now until November 7, 2006, Schwarzenegger will be held accountable. He is beatable. And he will face a wrath unlike anything Gray Davis faced.
Check out the Democrats, Phil Angelides and Bill Lockyer because one of them is going to beat Schwarzenegger.
Posted at 12:39 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Activism, California | Technorati
Schwarzenegger backlash, critical mass achieved
Posted by Bob BrighamTonight was a turning point in California politics. The gubernatorial race is more than competitive, I'd now call it leaning Democratic.
Tonight, the people who actually run California, the teachers, the nurses, the firefighters, the citizens joined together with a united message that the Governator is hurting the people.
Living in San Francisco, one sees a great deal of protests. But the crowd tonight was not the people I marched with all night when Bush started the war. Tonight's crowd wasn't radicals, but radicalized opinion leaders. Imagine your second grade teacher, face strained while shouting, "Shame" and you'll know tonight's story.
...more to come.
Posted at 12:21 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Activism, California | Technorati
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
CA Gov. 2006: "The Tipping Point" (LIVEblog Part 1)
Posted by Tim TagarisThis is one thing I love about California, and San Francisco in particular, they don't play around. Bob Brigham is on-the-ground right now, phoning in updates from a large scale protest against California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The event: Arnold's $1,000 to $100,000 a plate fundraiser. Bob referenced it in a post earlier today, here are the updates. It looks like Govenator's re-election will not be as smooth as many anticipate:
Bob says that there are easily 3000 people there right now, and they are all over the place. He counted at least 10 telvision news trucks, 30 photographers, and 2 helicopters constantly circling overhead. He said he couldn't tell what the plane flying above had on it's banner, because it was directly overhead (that made me laugh). He told me that this is nothing short of a rock concert atmosphere.
Bob just called me back to let me know that there is a group forming to the side that is going to attempt to block the Governor from even entering the event. Firefighters are all over the place with signs that read, "Not my neighborhood firehouse," and are holding professional looking signs with burning buildings demanding that local firehouses be kept open. Other signs read: "Money for schools not corporate interests"
Bob's quote to me was: "It looks like the tipping point. There is blood in the water. The race is going to be extremely competitive."
The two Democrats vying to compete for the Governor's mansion in California are State Treasuruer Phil Angelides -- (campaign website) and Attorney General Bill Lockyer.
He also mentioned that Assemblyman Mark Leno was rushing down from Calfifornia to speak at the event.
More on everything (updates) in the extended entry--cause Bob keeps calling.
UPDATE: Bob just called back and put his phone in the air to let me hear the chant, "RECALL ARNOLD."
He says that every single off-duty emergency personnel is there to protest George Bush and Arnold. The police are now breaking out more barricades. Bob claims that there are more off-duty police officers on the people's side of the barricades than Arnolds.
"They are taking over the street now. The street is shut down. There are about 50 people on the middle of the street, they just took it over." "There are smoke-bombs going off." He is laughing/coughing. "I am right in the middle of all of this, this is amazing."
There are green smoke bombs going off--green and gray smoke going off all throughout the crowd.
"We have the street" -- "We have taken the street." "The cops have no interest in restoring control. The police are laughing." Bob has no idea how Arnold will even get inside his fundraiser.
The limos that were approaching the hotel, the motorcade, has been surrounded by protestors. Traffic is shut-down. The situation is completely out of control. The dirt-bike cops are leaving. It is all shut down he says.
More later...
UPDATE 3:
The police just tried just arrest somebody, and the crowd started chanting "shame on you," -- the cops let him go. And now that same guy is leading the march to re-take the street, and Bob is right next to him wearing his BlogPAC hat.
They had the guy cuffed, uncuffed him, and now he is leading the charge the re-take the street.
Bob just put him on the phone for me to interview him. His quotes:
"If I felt any better I would be the cupcake, like the sprinkles. Its about taking back the power."
He just told me that when the cops cuffed him, he told them he was out fighting for their rights as well. Then they patted him on the back, uncuffed him, and said, "let's get this thing going," and sent him on his way.
He said he is not worried about getting arrrested -- not for this cause this cause. He would pay a fine go home, feeling good, and he would hang that citation on the wall.
Five reporters were waiting to interview him while he was on the phone with me.
COPS ARE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. IT IS GETTING VIOLENT, Bob says. They are shoving people all over the place.
More soon...
UPDATE:
Backup called for: The California Highway Patrol is there.
The banner on that airplane I referenced above was paid for by Calif. Nurses Association and it said, "Arnold, Calfornia is not for sale."
Arnold is going to enter the building on the opposite side of the building that the protesters shut down the street. The police are now marching down the street in lock-step.
The violence has worn down. Bob said that the cops ruthlessly arrested one guy and hauled him into the hotel. The crowd is swelling, Bob puts the number at 10,000 for crowd size. More and more people keep on coming.
Again, the police do not have on full riot gear, just helmets so far with the huge nightsticks. But the violence has calmed. But, Bob can only comment on one of the sides of the building, but there are people on all sides.
UPDATE:
The motorcade is now forming to come down Nob Hill. Sixty motorcycles (police) are escorting Arnold's motorcade down the street.
UPDATE:
"Arnold's San Francisco priveleges have been revoked; he can never come back again." - Bob Brigham
He also wanted me to let you know that there is a protest going on at the GAP right now that one of his friends is organizing (Cory Black is leading the boycott). People are protesting the chain because of the owner's contribution (Don Fisher) to Arnold's re-election campaign.
Four streets are now blocked. And the crowd continues to grow. No word on the motorcade, as it is coming down the street on the opposite side of the building.
Bob Brigham just talked to rising star Mark Leno and he asked Californians to sign a petition to stop Arnold at:
Petition at California for Democracy.
"Using the Internet there is going to be a grassroot uprising in California." -- Assemblyman Mark Leno
UPDATE:
"It is amazing how many nurses are here in their scrubs. They just gave me a bottle of water to quench my thirst after the smoke from the smoke bombs." -- Bob Brigham
Street Closings:
California Street
Pine Street
Grant Street (Chinatown)
Stockton Street
UPDATE
"The sun has set. The streetlights are on. The crowd has laid siege to the building, controlling all entrances, and all streets. The streets belong to the people." -- Bob Brigham
The crowd is chanting that Arnold is chicken. The crowd is now chatning "na na nana hey hey hey good bye" (I can hear that). The professionalism of the organizing is "pure west coast."
The nurses have a staging area at St. Mary's park -- a half block away. The firefighters provided the flatbead truck that serves as a stage with sound equipment to amplify music and speeches.
More signs:
Stop the budget cuts -- save social security
Public Health - Not Corporate Wealth
Don't Target Our Children (held by an 8 year old over her head)
Hands off workers pension
Workers are not a special interest
UPDATE:
People were pounding on the Governor's car, while it was speeding out of the garage. Bob said the car peeled out, and you can literally smell the burnt rubber from where he is standing. He fled with his tail between his legs.
The motorcade is following the Governor's car down the street. It's over.
The people won.
UPDATE
Code Pink, a group founded by women to protest the war in Iraq, also showed up -- and not the same way as the other protesters.Instead, they rented a $325-a-night room in the hotel, donned pink wigs and hung an anti-Schwarzenegger banner out a window before hotel security intervened. [...]
The protest organizers weren't content to limit their efforts to the hotel on Tuesday. The California Nurses Association drove a mobile anti-Schwarzenegger billboard to opening day at SBC Park and had an airplane flying over the city with a banner saying: "Arnold: California is not for sale."
"We're going to have a blast,'' said Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the nurses group. "We've been protesting at 38 of the governor's fund-raisers since November, and we expect this to be the most significant."
Earlier on Tuesday, protesters also took their complaints to the governor's biggest financial backers. Demonstrators showed up outside the Gap store on Post Street in midafternoon to protest the $225,000 that company founder Don Fisher and his family have given to Schwarzenegger and his committees.
Posted at 08:32 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Activism, California, California, Netroots | Comments (5) | Technorati
CA Gov. 2006: "The Tipping Point" (LIVEblog Part 1)
Posted by Tim TagarisThis is one thing I love about California, and San Francisco in particular, they don't play around. Bob Brigham is on-the-ground right now, phoning in updates from a large scale protest against California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The event: Arnold's $1,000 to $100,000 a plate fundraiser. Bob referenced it in a post earlier today, here are the updates. It looks like Govenator's re-election will not be as smooth as many anticipate:
Bob says that there are easily 3000 people there right now, and they are all over the place. He counted at least 10 telvision news trucks, 30 photographers, and 2 helicopters constantly circling overhead. He said he couldn't tell what the plane flying above had on it's banner, because it was directly overhead (that made me laugh). He told me that this is nothing short of a rock concert atmosphere.
Bob just called me back to let me know that there is a group forming to the side that is going to attempt to block the Governor from even entering the event. Firefighters are all over the place with signs that read, "Not my neighborhood firehouse," and are holding professional looking signs with burning buildings demanding that local firehouses be kept open. Other signs read: "Money for schools not corporate interests"
Bob's quote to me was: "It looks like the tipping point. There is blood in the water. The race is going to be extremely competitive."
The two Democrats vying to compete for the Governor's mansion in California are State Treasuruer Phil Angelides -- (campaign website) and Attorney General Bill Lockyer.
He also mentioned that Assemblyman Mark Leno was rushing down from Calfifornia to speak at the event.
More on everything (updates) in the extended entry--cause Bob keeps calling.
UPDATE: Bob just called back and put his phone in the air to let me hear the chant, "RECALL ARNOLD."
He says that every single off-duty emergency personnel is there to protest George Bush and Arnold. The police are now breaking out more barricades. Bob claims that there are more off-duty police officers on the people's side of the barricades than Arnolds.
"They are taking over the street now. The street is shut down. There are about 50 people on the middle of the street, they just took it over." "There are smoke-bombs going off." He is laughing/coughing. "I am right in the middle of all of this, this is amazing."
There are green smoke bombs going off--green and gray smoke going off all throughout the crowd.
"We have the street" -- "We have taken the street." "The cops have no interest in restoring control. The police are laughing." Bob has no idea how Arnold will even get inside his fundraiser.
The limos that were approaching the hotel, the motorcade, has been surrounded by protestors. Traffic is shut-down. The situation is completely out of control. The dirt-bike cops are leaving. It is all shut down he says.
More later...
UPDATE 3:
The police just tried just arrest somebody, and the crowd started chanting "shame on you," -- the cops let him go. And now that same guy is leading the march to re-take the street, and Bob is right next to him wearing his BlogPAC hat.
They had the guy cuffed, uncuffed him, and now he is leading the charge the re-take the street.
Bob just put him on the phone for me to interview him. His quotes:
"If I felt any better I would be the cupcake, like the sprinkles. Its about taking back the power."
He just told me that when the cops cuffed him, he told them he was out fighting for their rights as well. Then they patted him on the back, uncuffed him, and said, "let's get this thing going," and sent him on his way.
He said he is not worried about getting arrrested -- not for this cause this cause. He would pay a fine go home, feeling good, and he would hang that citation on the wall.
Five reporters were waiting to interview him while he was on the phone with me.
COPS ARE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. IT IS GETTING VIOLENT, Bob says. They are shoving people all over the place.
More soon...
UPDATE:
Backup called for: The California Highway Patrol is there.
The banner on that airplane I referenced above was paid for by Calif. Nurses Association and it said, "Arnold, Calfornia is not for sale."
Arnold is going to enter the building on the opposite side of the building that the protesters shut down the street. The police are now marching down the street in lock-step.
The violence has worn down. Bob said that the cops ruthlessly arrested one guy and hauled him into the hotel. The crowd is swelling, Bob puts the number at 10,000 for crowd size. More and more people keep on coming.
Again, the police do not have on full riot gear, just helmets so far with the huge nightsticks. But the violence has calmed. But, Bob can only comment on one of the sides of the building, but there are people on all sides.
UPDATE:
The motorcade is now forming to come down Nob Hill. Sixty motorcycles (police) are escorting Arnold's motorcade down the street.
UPDATE:
"Arnold's San Francisco priveleges have been revoked; he can never come back again." - Bob Brigham
He also wanted me to let you know that there is a protest going on at the GAP right now that one of his friends is organizing (Cory Black is leading the boycott). People are protesting the chain because of the owner's contribution (Don Fisher) to Arnold's re-election campaign.
Four streets are now blocked. And the crowd continues to grow. No word on the motorcade, as it is coming down the street on the opposite side of the building.
Bob Brigham just talked to rising star Mark Leno and he asked Californians to sign a petition to stop Arnold at:
Petition at California for Democracy.
"Using the Internet there is going to be a grassroot uprising in California." -- Assemblyman Mark Leno
UPDATE:
"It is amazing how many nurses are here in their scrubs. They just gave me a bottle of water to quench my thirst after the smoke from the smoke bombs." -- Bob Brigham
Street Closings:
California Street
Pine Street
Grant Street (Chinatown)
Stockton Street
UPDATE
"The sun has set. The streetlights are on. The crowd has laid siege to the building, controlling all entrances, and all streets. The streets belong to the people." -- Bob Brigham
The crowd is chanting that Arnold is chicken. The crowd is now chatning "na na nana hey hey hey good bye" (I can hear that). The professionalism of the organizing is "pure west coast."
The nurses have a staging area at St. Mary's park -- a half block away. The firefighters provided the flatbead truck that serves as a stage with sound equipment to amplify music and speeches.
More signs:
Stop the budget cuts -- save social security
Public Health - Not Corporate Wealth
Don't Target Our Children (held by an 8 year old over her head)
Hands off workers pension
Workers are not a special interest
UPDATE:
People were pounding on the Governor's car, while it was speeding out of the garage. Bob said the car peeled out, and you can literally smell the burnt rubber from where he is standing. He fled with his tail between his legs.
The motorcade is following the Governor's car down the street. It's over.
The people won.
UPDATE
Code Pink, a group founded by women to protest the war in Iraq, also showed up -- and not the same way as the other protesters.Instead, they rented a $325-a-night room in the hotel, donned pink wigs and hung an anti-Schwarzenegger banner out a window before hotel security intervened. [...]
The protest organizers weren't content to limit their efforts to the hotel on Tuesday. The California Nurses Association drove a mobile anti-Schwarzenegger billboard to opening day at SBC Park and had an airplane flying over the city with a banner saying: "Arnold: California is not for sale."
"We're going to have a blast,'' said Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the nurses group. "We've been protesting at 38 of the governor's fund-raisers since November, and we expect this to be the most significant."
Earlier on Tuesday, protesters also took their complaints to the governor's biggest financial backers. Demonstrators showed up outside the Gap store on Post Street in midafternoon to protest the $225,000 that company founder Don Fisher and his family have given to Schwarzenegger and his committees.
Posted at 08:32 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Activism, California, California, Netroots | Comments (5) | Technorati
California 2006 Gubernatorial: Schwarzenegger loses SF privileges
Posted by Bob BrighamCalifornia Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is on the verge of being eaten alive by west coast political sharks with a keen sense of the first drop of blood in the water.
In 2000 California Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush was eaten alive, in 2003 the victim was Governor Gray Davis, and the last year the cannibals went after Secretary of State Kevin Shelley. Next up, The Governator?
It looks like Schwarzenegger has become so politically radioactive that he can't even visit San Francisco:
Quite a greeting is being planned for Arnold Schwarzenegger's visit Tuesday to San Francisco -- with labor groups hoping to turn out upwards of 5,000 (some say 10,000) protesters to razz the governor's big-buck fund-raiser at the Ritz-Carlton hotel. [...]"That's the skinny we've been hearing -- word is there are going to be a lot of folks out," said Deputy Police Chief Greg Suhr. "And it's not your usual First Amendment crowd. It's a lot of firefighters, teachers and nurses."
I scouted the site earlier and it looked like a cop convention (I haven't seen the police put on a show of force like this since the first days of the war). If the protest is successful, tonight could be the tipping point in the 2006 gubernatorial campaign. One drop of blood in the water and the instincts of the sharks take over. The inevitable frenzy would make the race competitive faster than you can say, "Hasta la vista, baby."
Posted at 06:27 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
CA 2006 Gubernatorial Race
Posted by Bob BrighamCalifornia: The State Attorney General Bill Lockyer has also entered:
First, the attorney general said he plans to run for governor next year, adding "it's not a formal announcement, but that's what I'm working on."Then, he criticized Schwarzenegger's leadership style, saying "I don't like to dwell on this. But it has a little bit of the sort of the odor of Austrian politics. There's a sort of arrogance of power that bothers me. You know, Arnold is still an Austrian citizen."
Asked pointedly if he were referring to Nazi-era Austria, the attorney general replied, "I'm just talking about the culture,'' he said, adding that there was a "long history from the Austria-Hungarian empire on, of sort of a more autocracy... it's a more elite system."
This is California politics:
Karen Hanretty, spokeswoman for the California Republican Party, quickly responded, calling Lockyer's statements appalling and outrageous. She sought to tie Lockyer and Angelides together as out of the mainstream with state voters."We have two spokesmen for the California Democratic Party today, one of them promoting tax increases, and the other comparing the governor to the Nazis," she said.
Angelides: $12.5 million
Lockyer: $11 million
This is going to be fun to watch. This primary has been building for a long time.
Posted at 07:22 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Technorati
Monday, March 14, 2005
Gavin Newsom wins on Gay Marriage
Posted by Bob BrighamA judge ruled Monday that California can no longer justify limiting marriage to a man and a woman, a legal milestone that if upheld on appeal would pave the way for the nation's most populous state to follow Massachusetts in allowing same-sex couples to wed. In an opinion that had been awaited because of San Francisco's historical role as a gay rights battleground, San Francisco County Superior Court Judge Richard Kramer said that withholding marriage licenses from gays and lesbians is unconstitutional."It appears that no rational purpose exists for limiting marriage in this state to opposite-sex partners," Kramer wrote.
Eric Jaye, Newsom's political consultant, has an important strategy memo on Gay Marriage that I posted earlier. Big day for Newsom.
Posted at 03:46 PM in 2008 Election - President, 2008 President - Democrats, Activism, California | Technorati
Wednesday, March 09, 2005
Under The Radar: Matsui Wins Special Election
Posted by Tim TagarisIn the seat vacated by the passing of her husband, Congressman Bob Matsui, Doris, his wife, won a landslide special election last evening and expects to be sworn in on Thursday.
With all precincts reporting Tuesday, Matsui had nearly 72 percent of the overall vote and 88 percent among Democrats in a race marked by low turnout. She is expected to be sworn in Thursday.
Matsui will represent California's fifth congressional district in the seat held by her husband for 26 years.
Posted at 12:41 PM in 2005 Elections, California | Technorati
Thursday, January 06, 2005
Statement from Senator Barbara Boxer
Posted by Bob Brigham
AP:
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., signed a challenge mounted by House Democrats to Ohio's 20 electoral votes, which put Bush over the top.
Asked about her historic vote to stand up for the people, the Office of US Senator Barbara Boxer may have released the following statement:
"I exercise my right to express when I feel it's time. I say to fight, you take it as I'mma whip someone's ass.""Come along follow me as I lead through the darkness, as I provide just enough spark that we need to proceed. Carry on, give me hope, give me strength -- come with me and I won't steer you wrong."
"Put your faith and your trust as I guide us through the fog to the light at the end of the tunnel."
"Now this is our final hour, let me be the voice in your strength and your choice. Let me simplify the rhyme just to amplify the noise. Try to amplify the times it, and multiply by six. Teen million people are equal at this high pitch."
"If we don't serve our own country, we're patronizing a hero. Look in his eyes its all lies."
Posted at 11:32 AM in 2006 Elections, 2008 Election - President, 2008 President - Democrats, Activism, California, Ohio | Technorati