Wednesday, January 04, 2006
ME House: Legislator Leaves Dems
Posted by DavidNYCSo a state legislator in Maine has bolted the Democratic Party. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be news except for the fact that this now leaves the Maine House in a tie between Republicans and Democrats. (The upper house is held by the Dems, as is the statehouse.) Maine reps are up for re-election this fall. Mainers: Can this setback be reversed? Or is it a worrisome sign for the future? (This is the third Dem to become an independent in the past year.)
Posted at 05:22 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Maine | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, April 02, 2005
U.S. Senate "Nuclear Option" and 2006 midterm elections
Posted by Bob BrighamOver at DailyKos, Kargo X has kickstarted a conversation on the coming "Nuclear Option" -- the Republican scheme to end the filibuster and gain absolute power.
If the GOP pushes forward with this power grab, it will force a major backlash against Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections. During the Schiavo usurpation, Bush dropped 10 pts in the time it took for Santorum to permanently tie himself to the issue.
If the GOP continues their quest for absolute power, the backlash will be severe. Already, Democrats have 12 Republican Senators (facing re-election in 2006) on record with their Social Security vote.
It has become conventional wisdom that Americans oppose the GOP plan to privatize Social Security. If the GOP moves for absolute control of the Senate while Bush forces privatization then the storyline gets a villian in a potent way. Add Tom DeLay as the public face of Republicans in Congress, a splintering of the conservative coalition, and a united Democratic Party. Together, this could result in a major restructuring of party perception in a nationalized 2006 midterm election cycle.
Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) wants to be President so he needs to protect his record. In addition, the following Republican Senators need to worry about running for re-election in 2006:
- Senator George Allen (R-VA)*
- Senator Conrad Burns (R-MT)*
- Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)*
- Senator Mike DeWine (R-OH)
- Senator John Ensign (R-NV)*
- Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)*
- Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)*
- Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)*
- Senator Trent Lott (R-MS)*
- Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN)*
- Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)*
- Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
- Senator Jim Talent (R-MO)*
- Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY)*
* Social Security: on record voting in favor of "deep benefit cuts or a massive increase in debt."
In addition, such a move would allow the following Democrats a hero vote to bolster their 2006 re-elections:
- Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI)
- Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)
- Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV)
- Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
- Senator Thomas Carper (D-DE)
- Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
- Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND)
- Senator Jon Corzine (D-NJ)
- Senator Mark Dayton (D-MN)
- Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
- Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
- Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI)
- Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT)
- Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE)
- Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL)
- Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Posted at 06:36 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Nuclear Option, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming | Technorati
Sunday, March 06, 2005
Two more State Party Blogs
Posted by Tim TagarisTake a moment and head over to the two newest state party websites that have included blogs as a means to communicate directly with the grass/netroots.
I am particularly fond of the Maine blog. It looks like the party has really spent some time and effort in getting it up, running, and did an effective job getting people to participate.
On a sour note: The Pennsylvania Democratic Party basically said, "f you" to members of a DFA in Bucks County who requested a blog. CLICK HERE for more information -- and expect even more in the near future. As Chris Bowers of MyDD puts it:
Ahhh, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, where reform goes to die. Forcing candidates out of the Senatorial primary. Endorsing Fowler for DNC chair after Dean secured the votes to win. Not giving Ginny their full support (more on that later). And now, this. No wonder in a state where Democrats lead in voter ID and voter registration, they are substantially behind in the legislature, the congressional delegation, and don't have a Seantor. Color me disgusted
Posted at 05:56 PM in Activism, Maine, Netroots, New Hampshire | Comments (2) | Technorati
Monday, September 13, 2004
Zogby Polls (ME & OR)
Posted by DavidNYCI'm sorry that I don't have time for a longer post. Zogby has a new (telephone) poll out in Maine. Bush and Kerry are tied at 43% apiece. Larry Sabato (of whom I'm no fan) says that this is due to a convention bounce, but given that the poll was done on Sept. 9th, I'm wondering how much of an effect the convention still might have had. One detail for those of you obsessed with Maine's EV-splitting system: Northern ME appears to have substantially similar numbers to southern ME.
Also, I missed a Zogby Oregon poll from last week (also a traditional telephone survey). Kerry led Bush by a hefty 53-43. This poll was taken during the convention, so go figure.
Posted at 11:40 AM in Maine, Oregon | Comments (6) | Technorati
Friday, July 30, 2004
Updated Swing State Map Available
Posted by DavidNYCAs promised, I updated the swing state map to show North Carolina as a battleground state. Yes, it violates my strict ��10% methodology a little bit, but I'm satisfied with Chris's research that shows that the VP selection can materially affect a state's vote. Also, NC was actually the second-least red of all the states outside the ��10% group (Georgia was the first state over that barrier). So it's not a huge stretch. (I also cleaned up the map to show all of Maine as a swing state, even if it is strongly leaning toward Kerry.) A color-blind reader suggest I use patterns rather than colors - I'll try to create a second, more color-blind friendly map if I get the chance.
Also, related to my question immediately below, Zogby already has a new national poll out, showing Kerry/Edwards ahead 48-43. Zogby's last pre-convention poll had Kerry ahead 48-46, so all this poll shows (so far) is that 3% moved from Bush into the undecided group. (I don't usually, if ever, mention national polls here, but it might be a few days before we see post-convention state polls.)
And lastly, speaking of maps, a number of people have recommended the LA Times' electoral vote tracker map. It's pretty & user-friendly, and it even plays a little song (is that supposed to be "Stars & Stripes Forever?") when one candidate reaches 270 EVs.
Posted at 12:14 AM in General, Maine, North Carolina, Site News | Comments (8) | Technorati
Thursday, July 01, 2004
Kerry Lead Shrinks in Maine
Posted by DavidNYCFrom Strategic Marketing Services - check out those March trendlines. Gack!
Kerry: 44 (51)
Bush: 41 (38)
Nader: 5 (4)
Undecided: 11 (8)
(MoE: ��4.9%)
A thirteen-point lead shrinking to a three-point lead? Yikes. Even Patrick Murphy, the head of SMS, said he was a "bit surprised" at the results. Quoting from the story linked above, Murphy "suggested that the numbers may reflect Republican advertising that Kerry had yet to respond to as well as the blanket news coverage of former President Ronald Reagan��s funeral."
Okay, so if it's the latter, that's understandable. But the former? Huh? I thought Kerry had been on the air in all the swing states, including Maine. So what gives?
Posted at 06:50 PM in Maine | Comments (9) | Technorati
Sunday, June 06, 2004
Kerry Ahead in Maine
Posted by DavidNYCA new poll shows John Kerry with a big lead in Maine (no trendlines):
Kerry: 49
Bush: 39
Undecided/Other: 12
(MoE: 4%)
I'm not familiar with the firm that did this poll, Critical Insights, but Polling Report includes them, so that's at least one seal of approval. I have to believe that Bush is really screwed in Maine, even in the more Republican-leaning second CD. An old Critical Insights poll done back in September of last year showed "Democrat" beating George Bush 45-36. A Strategic Marketing Services poll from a few months back gave Kerry a big 51-38 lead, and Rasmussen's latest (salt as needed) has Kerry up a whopping 19 points, 54-35.
One reassuring detail: According to CI, independents favor Kerry 45-34 over Bush - and there are more independents than Republicans or Democrats in Maine.
Posted at 05:37 PM in Maine | Comments (1) | Technorati
Thursday, May 27, 2004
Purple People Watch
Posted by DavidNYCThere's a new Purple People Watch column up at TAP. The PPW is the only other place I've seen so far (apart from this ol' site) that's dorky enough to say about Maine: "It's less a battleground state than a battleground congressional district." (Thanks to Maine's unusual process for awarding electoral votes.) I'd love to see some more polling from ME - the last one, taken ages ago, gave Kerry a huge lead - but my instincts tell me it's not seriously in play.
In Missouri, Kerry's finally appointed a campaign chief - but, oddly, he won't start work until mid-June. The bad news is that Bush has had someone in place for half a year. The good news (I guess) is that Kerry's setting up shop in MO before Gore and Clinton did.
And following up on a previous item, Kerry did raise the issue of Yucca Mountain on a trip to Nevada back on May 17th. I hope he starts airing ads on the subject, because Nevadans seem to be hopping mad at Bush on this topic - the Las Vegas Sun uses the verboten "L-word" and outright calls Bush a liar for backing down on his promise to halt the project.
Posted at 04:31 PM in General, Maine, Missouri, Nevada | Comments (1) | Technorati