Swing State Project

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Vote Vets Throws Down in Four Races

Posted by James L.

By now you may have seen one of these new ads by VoteVets PAC, running against Republican congressmen Jon Porter (NV-03), John Doolittle (CA-04), Gil Gutknecht (MN-01) and John Sweeney (NY-20):

In terms of advertising effectiveness, VoteVets is giving more bang for the buck than any other PAC or party committee this year. Their much-hyped body armor ads against Senators Talent, Burns, Allen and Santorum were impaired only by their limited budgets: a $30k-$50k media buy doesn't exactly dominate the airwaves, especially in a state as large as Pennsylvania or Virginia. For this new series of ads, however, VoteVets has scored the funding to make big, serious buys that will have an impact in each of these districts:

• $98k against Gutknecht (MN-01)
• $136k against Sweeney (NY-20)
• $237k against Porter (NV-03)

As I understand it, the John Doolittle ad will be a narrower cable buy, but even still, it should penetrate deeper in a House race than the body armor ads did with limited statewide purchases in the Senate races.

Posted at 03:25 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Minnesota, Nevada, New York | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Sunday, September 10, 2006

NV-Sen: Jack Carter Hospitalized, Jimmy Steps In

Posted by James L.

First off, our thoughts go out to Jack Carter, who was hospitalized on Thursday for complications from colitis. Thankfully, Jack's doctor says that he's responding well to treatment. Let's wish Jack a speedy recovery so he can go back to pounding the pavement in the Nevada Senate race this fall.

That said, the Carter For Nevada campaign couldn't have found a better substitute for Jack at his recent campaign events:

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA -- The 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter, delighted the crowd as a surprise guest speaker this afternoon at the Fiestas Patrias (Mexican Independence Day Festival) at Freedom Park in Las Vegas.

President Carter and former First Lady Rosalynn Carter arrived in Las Vegas this morning to visit their son at Summerlin Hospital, where he is recovering from complications from severe colitis. However, by midday, Jack Carter – the Democratic nominee for United States Senator – was responding well enough to treatment that his father felt comfortable leaving his bedside to speak on Jack’s behalf.

The President – accompanied by his grandson, Jason Carter -- addressed the crowd in Spanish, urging those who haven’t already done so to register and then to vote in this fall’s election. He directed members of the largely-Hispanic audience to a tent at the festival at which they could conveniently register.

Later, President Carter told reporters that his son’s campaign is not deterred by his illness, and that Jack is eager to resume campaigning. The President said, “The campaign is well organized.” He added that he is upbeat about his son’s chances in the November 7th election.

"Jack’s opponent has been among the most subservient members of the United States Senate," President Carter said, pointing to John Ensign’s voting record, which is in nearly-total support of Bush administration policies.

How cool is that? Anyway, please put Jack Carter and his family in your thoughts this week. Get well soon, Jack!

Posted at 09:43 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Nevada | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

NV-Sen: LV Mayor Oscar Goodman (D) Won't Run

Posted by DavidNYC

From the Las Vegas Review-Journal, via Sarah R. Carter:

Mayor Oscar Goodman said he will not seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, ending years of speculation among political insiders about the popular mayor's future.

"I love Las Vegas, I love being mayor of Las Vegas," Goodman said in an interview Wednesday with the Review-Journal. "I have a lot on my plate, I want to see it come to fruition, and I can only do that at home."

Sarah notes:

This means that Carter is the only Democrat who is likely to run. The filing deadline is May 19, and no other Democrats have expressed interest.

I like Jack Carter, but unfortunately, this seat is an exceptionally tough nut to crack - and not just because John Ensign is swamping Carter in the polls. In small states, the major players from opposing parties can often have too-cozy relationships. This was the case for many years with Joe Biden and William Roth in Delaware, for example - and it seems like it's happening in NV, too. All I can say is that I hope I'm wrong about this.

Posted at 09:00 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Nevada | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, January 23, 2006

NV-03: Reid Staffer Mulling Challenge to Porter

Posted by DavidNYC

Nevada's third CD is one of those super-tantalizing districts. It's virtually 50-50 on the presidential level. Yet somehow, we haven't been able to find a serious challenger to incumbent Rep. Jon Porter. Via Hugh at the Gleaner, we're told that may soon be changing:

Democratic Sen. Harry Reid's press secretary Tessa Hafen resigned Monday to consider challenging Nevada Rep. Jon Porter for Congress, two Democratic sources said.

Hugh has the full run-down on Hafen's strengths and weaknesses here. The basic 411: Her family name is well-known in the district (her dad is a local politician); she's very young (only 29); and obviously, she's tied in with Harry Reid, which can cut both ways. In any event, it's heartening to see a real candidate emerge here - as I've often said, there's no way we can take back the House unless we challenge the close districts.

Posted at 06:35 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Nevada | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

NV-Sen: Jack Carter to Unseat John Ensign

Posted by Bob Brigham

Following this morning's news that Jack Carter is running for U.S. Senate against John Ensign, there has been a great deal of discussion online about how this is great news for Democrats. While some in the local press think Ensign won't lose in an upset, the news from local bloggers is far different. The Las Vegas Gleaner reports:

Who could possibly envision a scenario where Carter, who will have lived in Las Vegas for less than four years by election day, could unseat Ensign? Who would dare be so silly?

The Gleaner!

First, the obvious: Iraq, gas prices, Brownie, DeLay, Abramoff, Savafian, Rove, Frist, Schaivo, Katrina and the growing perception that Republicans are the party of crony capitalism, corporate influence, corruption and incompetence. So that's a start.

And then there's Yucca Mountain. Yes, yes, all Nevada politicians are "against" Yucca Mountain, and Ensign is no exception. But as we've said (and documented) before, one of the keys to Ensign's 2000 campaign was his claim that, by virtue of being a Republican, he would be able to convince other Republican senators to support Nevada in the Yucca Mountain fight. He didn't deliver. He failed to convince a single additional Republican senator to oppose the nuke dump. Nevada voters, even relatively new ones like, well, Carter, already suffer from Yucca fatigue. But this isn't about Yucca, really. It's about Ensign's utter inability to do what he said he'd do.

The post goes on to look at the Nevada by the numbers, go read the whole thing.

Posted at 07:46 PM in Nevada | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

NV-Sen: Jack Carter, Son of Jimmy, to Challenge Ensign

Posted by Bob Brigham

As regular readers know, Swing State Project has been disappointed in the lack of recruitment for a candidate to run against Senator John Ensign in Nevada. This senate race is primed for an upset, nowhere in the country is the backlash against the GOP over-reach more relevant. People move to Nevada to escape the heavy hand of government that has typified the Bush Administration.

Via MyDD, it is going to be a competive race:

Jack Carter, 58, has been quietly networking in recent weeks to weigh the possibility of a run for U.S. Senate against incumbent John Ensign. Carter recently sought the advice of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and former Sen. Richard Bryan.

On Tuesday, Carter confirmed he's considering entering the race, and he sounds serious. An investment counselor, Carter and his wife, Elizabeth, moved to Las Vegas three years ago.

"I'm disgusted when I see where the country is going," he says. "That's what's motivated me to look into this race."

Carter seems to understand the dynamic of the over-reach and will be able to receive the national support necessary for an upset:

Jack Carter is a U.S. Navy veteran who has spent most of his life in politics but much of it offstage. He has maintained national Democratic Party contacts and has networked with local officials. He gave national stump speeches on behalf of his father, the Georgia governor who campaigned for nearly two years in a strategy that culminated in the upset in 1976 of President Ford.

It would be easy to write off Carter before he's written himself in. Nevada has rarely been kind to candidates voters perceive as wealthy outsiders. Former casino executive Tom Gallagher, for instance, was a bright guy with an impeccable education who was battered when he challenged Jon Porter for his congressional seat. In keeping with tradition, Porter exploited Gallagher's lack of time in the state.

But neither Gallagher nor the rest offered Jack Carter's vast contacts and background in politics.

Asked to describe his political philosophy, he offers, "I think of myself as just being responsible, fiscally and socially. I want the government to stay out of people's pockets as much as it can and to stay out of their private lives."

In addition to nurturing the backlash against the over-reach, Carter is also positioning himself as a solution to Republican incompetence:

Carter said he decided to run in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He said he was offended by the federal government's response to the disaster.

"I'm more concerned than ever with the way that the country is headed," Carter said.

In making his case, Carter appears to understand the quality of a good sound-bite:

He said he is a social liberal with conservative Southern roots and a business background that taught him "you pay for what you spend."

The latest polls show Ensign only having a 53% approval rating, which is probably falling with every Republican blunder. More importantly, Bush has a 56% DISapproval rating which will continue to drag down Ensign's support.

From day 1, this will be a competitive race.

Posted at 01:05 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Nevada | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Saturday, August 20, 2005

NV-Sen: Recruitment Time

Posted by Bob Brigham

Bowers has the plan.

Posted at 05:21 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Netroots, Nevada | Technorati

Sunday, August 14, 2005

NV-Sen: Reid Handling Ensign with Kid Gloves

Posted by DavidNYC

Hugh at the Los Vegas Gleaner points out this frustrating AP story. Yargh... stuff like this drives me nuts:

The home state of the Senate Democratic leader might not seem like the best place to be a first-term Republican senator up for re-election. But Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., is finding he could hardly ask for a safer haven.

Once bitter opponents, Ensign and now-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid emerged from a hard-fought 1998 campaign, which Ensign lost by 428 votes, to forge a close relationship.

Now Reid, in charge of growing the Democratic minority in the Senate, is signaling that Ensign is one Republican who won’t be in his cross-hairs.

“We’ve got other places where we’re going to focus our attention,” Reid said.

Yeesh... Nevada is a true swing state - John Kerry lost the state by less than 3 points, and Bush's approval rating is at an extraordinarily bad 38-57. In fact, Nevadans gave George Bush the lowest marks of any red state in Survey USA's early June fifty-state poll. In fact, NV ranked him worse than even Massachusetts did!

What's more, Ensign himself has only a 49-34 rating. Doesn't sound too bad, I know - but it's only good enough for 82nd-best out of 100 senators. To put things in perspective, that's worse than the highly vulnerable Lincoln Chaffee (R-RI) and the odious Conrad Burns (R-MT).

So it's pretty clear to me that Ensign is among the weakest sitting GOP senators up for re-election in 2006. Why, then, is Reid being so kind to him?

I think there's no way any GOPer in Reid's position would show him the same sort of courtesy. I feel like we've been exposed to this lesson countless time over the past 5 years, so why haven't we learned it? Mary Landrieu, Max Cleland, etc., etc. Moreover, at most, the GOP will go easy on Reid and Reid alone when he's up for re-election.

Look, I like the job Reid has been doing - I think he's held the caucus together pretty well, and he's certainly been a damn sight better than Tom Daschle. But if he's looking to save his hide at the expense of giving up a chance to knock off a vulnerable Republican, then I can't tolerate that.

Posted at 11:38 AM in Nevada | Comments (5) | Technorati

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Political Respect - Nuclear Option

Posted by Bob Brigham

Respect is something the polls need to do a better job of trying to understand. While polls try to follow by examining sentiment by testing approval, they need to also look at respect because we know that people will vote against interests, against their beliefs.

I don't care where people stand on the issue of the nuclear option, it is just that I'm far more interested in the degree voters respect the role a politician is playing in the filibuster theatre.

I thought this deserved some disussion after reading this in the Las Vegas Journal Review:

Reid's performance gets thumbs up from most

WASHINGTON -- Days before an anticipated Senate filibuster showdown, a slight majority of Nevadans disapprove of Sen. Harry Reid blocking some of President Bush's judicial picks, according to a new poll.

But despite splitting from him on federal judges, a majority of Nevadans believe Reid, D-Nev., is doing a good job representing them in the Senate, the poll showed.

For many voters, respect is a primia facia hurdle, only after that will they listen to the issues. So the question for the nuclear war is will voters respect the Republicans after this power grab:

Despite his leading role in partisan fighting over judges and Social Security reform, Reid drew some support from Nevada Republicans, with 29 percent of GOP respondents rating him "good" or "excellent."

Time for bold action. Time to earn some respect. The Democrat comeback begins today.

Posted at 10:03 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Democrats, Nevada, Nuclear Option | Comments (1) | Technorati

Sunday, April 17, 2005

NV-Sen: A Pass or a Great Target

Posted by Bob Brigham

Over at Western Democrat, Jonathan Singer has a good look at Nevada's 2006 Senate race. My view is that the west could come into play far more than conventional wisdom suggests and it is imperative that we have a serious candidate.

Now that the GOP has been completely taken over by Theocrats wanting to start a Holy War, we have a rare opportunity to win seats that otherwise would seem out of reach. The over-reaching Theocrats scare westerners.

People move to Nevada because they don't want government imposing morality upon their lives. Lots of people, making Las Vegas the consistent winner of the fastest growing urban area.

There is a backlash brewing in 2006 and it will be amplified out west, especially in Nevada. We have a nice team of western bloggers coming together, if Reid won't recruit a candidate, maybe we need to.

Posted at 01:56 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Nevada | Technorati

Saturday, April 02, 2005

U.S. Senate "Nuclear Option" and 2006 midterm elections

Posted by Bob Brigham

Over at DailyKos, Kargo X has kickstarted a conversation on the coming "Nuclear Option" -- the Republican scheme to end the filibuster and gain absolute power.

If the GOP pushes forward with this power grab, it will force a major backlash against Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections. During the Schiavo usurpation, Bush dropped 10 pts in the time it took for Santorum to permanently tie himself to the issue.

If the GOP continues their quest for absolute power, the backlash will be severe. Already, Democrats have 12 Republican Senators (facing re-election in 2006) on record with their Social Security vote.

It has become conventional wisdom that Americans oppose the GOP plan to privatize Social Security. If the GOP moves for absolute control of the Senate while Bush forces privatization then the storyline gets a villian in a potent way. Add Tom DeLay as the public face of Republicans in Congress, a splintering of the conservative coalition, and a united Democratic Party. Together, this could result in a major restructuring of party perception in a nationalized 2006 midterm election cycle.

Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) wants to be President so he needs to protect his record. In addition, the following Republican Senators need to worry about running for re-election in 2006:

• Senator George Allen (R-VA)*
• Senator Conrad Burns (R-MT)*
• Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)*
• Senator Mike DeWine (R-OH)
• Senator John Ensign (R-NV)*
• Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)*
• Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)*
• Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)*
• Senator Trent Lott (R-MS)*
• Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN)*
• Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)*
• Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
• Senator Jim Talent (R-MO)*
• Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY)*

* Social Security: on record voting in favor of "deep benefit cuts or a massive increase in debt."

In addition, such a move would allow the following Democrats a hero vote to bolster their 2006 re-elections:

• Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI)
• Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)
• Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV)
• Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
• Senator Thomas Carper (D-DE)
• Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
• Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND)
• Senator Jon Corzine (D-NJ)
• Senator Mark Dayton (D-MN)
• Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
• Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
• Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI)
• Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT)
• Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE)
• Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL)
• Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)

Posted at 06:36 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Nuclear Option, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming | Technorati

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Vote on Social Security

Posted by Bob Brigham

Yesterday, the Senate gave the following statement an up or down vote:

"It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should reject any Social Security plan that requires deep benefit cuts or a massive increase in debt."

Here are the 12 Senators (standing for re-election in 2006) who voted for deep social security cuts and massive debt:

Allen, George VA
Burns, Conrad MT
Chafee, Lincoln RI
Ensign, John NV
Hatch, Orrin UT
Hutchison, Kay Bailey TX
Kyl, Jon AZ
Lott, Trent MS
Lugar, Richard IN
Santorum, Rick PA
Talent, Jim MO
Thomas, Craig WY

Here is the link to the vote.

Posted at 09:24 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming | Technorati

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Massive Voter Fraud in Nevada

Posted by DavidNYC

This story is getting a lot of play in the left-blogosphere, but not enough in the media: Apparently, a private voter registration firm working in Nevada has been collecting registrations - and then throwing out those marked "Democrat." Bastards.

More from Tapped, DailyKos, TPM. If you're in Nevada and you or a friend has registered Dem recently, you should double-check to make sure your registration is valid. This is an outrage.

UPDATE: This shit just doesn't fucking end. Read this summary and prepare to get really, really angry. Then, call ACT and get out into the field to fight these bastards.

Posted at 12:38 PM in Nevada | Comments (33) | Technorati

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Is Yucca Mountain Really a Big Deal?

Posted by DavidNYC

I've been beating the drum of Yucca Mountain for quite some time. I figured Kerry, who opposed the government's plan to bury all of our nuclear waste there, could make a lot of hay out of the issue. And in fact, he has brought it up, time and again, including yesterday.

But I just came across a poll from a few weeks ago, conducted by the Las Vegas Review-Journal. They asked voters which issue was "most influential" in guiding their voting decisions. It turns out that Yucca Mountain was the top priority for just 3%. (The full list is here.)

Three percent is surely enough to swing Nevada, but if you are listing that issue as tops, then I assume you're already voting against Bush. The question is, is there still time to convince other Nevadas - ie, swing voters, or soft Bush supporters - that Yucca should be a priority?

I think it's possible. Yucca can be sold not just as an environmental issue but also as a security issue. Undoubtedly, Yucca Mountain would become one of the most heavily-guarded spots in the country. But trucks and rail cars full of nuclear waste, travelling across the entire lower 48, will surely make much easier - and much more tempting - terrorist targets. If you look at that list again, you'll see that security-related matters top the list. I think this dog will hunt.

UPDATE: I should add that the Review-Journal has already endorsed Bush, so just bear that in mind.

Posted at 09:54 PM in Nevada | Comments (3) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Who Will Take Nevada?

Posted by DavidNYC

Nevada's an interesting state: It's incredibly fast-growing (the oft-repeated story is that phonebooks are published twice a year in Las Vegas), and two of its fastest-growing groups are Dem leaners: ex-Californians and Hispanics (who may well overlap a bit). We lost it by a little over 20,000 votes last time, or 2.5% - while Nader bagged 15K. After New Mexico, it's safe to say that it'll be the next Southwestern state most likely to emerge as Dem (ahead of CO and AZ).

And yet we haven't had any real leads in any polls there this entire season, except for a couple of barely measurable Zogby Interactives. Perhaps we're a little too early on NV - maybe we need to wait another cycle. But at the same time, Bush has seldom been at or above 50% in any poll - except for SUSA, which has a new one out today, conducted after the debate (likely voters, mid-September in parens):

Kerry: 46 (47)
Bush: 50 (51)
Other/Undecided: 4 (2)
(MoE: ��4%)

SUSA usually has very low undecideds - my only guess is that it might be easier to push a button on your phone that equals "vote for Bush" or "vote for Kerry" than it is to tell a real live person. (The universal psychological urge to be consistent is put at less risk when an automated machine is recording your preferences.) But that's just a guess.

If SUSA is right about the low number of undecideds (and let's not forget, the airwaves have been saturated here), then perhaps NV is out of reach for us, this time. Of course, as I mentioned, other polls describe the race differently, with Bush below that magical 50-point mark. But now that SUSA has shown Bush this high twice in a row, especially after his debate debacle, I'm not so sanguine.

All that said, we obviously don't need NV to win. I think we are most likely to win with a "bag a big one" strategy - either FL or OH. A path to victory which involves scraping together a bunch of small states doesn't seem as probable to me.

Posted at 01:23 AM in Nevada | Comments (15) | Technorati

Thursday, August 12, 2004

Kerry Hits Bush Hard on Yucca Mountain

Posted by DavidNYC

John Kerry has been taking my advice: On Tuesday, he slammed Bush on the issue of Yucca Mountain while stumping in Nevada. The scientific merits of Yucca nonwithstanding, this issue is a major winner for Kerry in NV, not just because Bush supports building a nuclear waste repository there, but because Nevadans perceive Bush as having betrayed a crucial campaign promise from 2000.

A question for Nevada residents: Have you seen any ads - whether from Kerry or 527s - which specifically reference Yucca?

Don't forget that the last SUSA poll showed Kerry ahead here, and a Mason-Dixon poll also taken in late July had Bush up just 46-43. (He had led by 49-38 in March.) Hopefully we'll see some new polling here soon. I imagine SUSA will hit the state again by the end of the month.

As an aside, I also have to say that I'm pretty amazed that 10,000 - that's ten thousand - people showed up to hear Kerry speak at UNLV in the middle of a very hot August when college kids are still on summer break and many people go away on vacation. (Heck, the Las Vegas Review-Journal says it was 12,000 - but who's counting?)

Posted at 02:26 AM in Nevada | Comments (24) | Technorati

Monday, July 26, 2004

Another Batch of Polls

Posted by DavidNYC

I've been quite busy the past few days. Many law schools have a wonderful process called "Early Interview Week," a hellish few days during which you interview with about 8,000 different law firms to get a job for summer 2005, and for many people, the rest of their lives. (Firms wind up giving almost every summer associate a full-time offer for after graduation.) It sucks to have to think about next summer while this one is still just in July, but there it is.

Anyhow, every students who participates in EIW bids on the firms they want to interview with. (Each firm only has so many interview slots available.) So my bid list is due in a couple of days, and assembling it has been occupying a lot of my time. Sussing out the differences between Dewey, Cheatem & Howe versus Oliver & Dunne is a little bit like trying to distinguish between Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld... and right here, in case any potential employers are reading, I'm gonna quit with the analogy. But if you have any thoughts about any of the big New York firms, let me know.

Oh, yes, there was an actual point to this thread. Kos has another battleground poll roundup. There may be some repeats, but it does include the new SUSA Nevada poll (PDF) which was mentioned in comments here that I hadn't yet posted:

Kerry: 49
Bush: 45
Other: 4
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ��3.5%)

SUSA's low undecideds have always made me a bit uncomfortable, yet despite their all-automated surveying, they apparently have a pretty good track record. All things being equal, Bush can afford to lose NV - in a way, it's sort of a neither-here-nor-there state. That is to say, if we take Nevada, it means we've held NM, but I don't think it says anything about AZ. In other words, NV is part of a very small group of states which could change hands without a single other state changing hands.

Posted at 02:42 AM in Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio | Comments (18) | Technorati

Saturday, July 10, 2004

Appeals Court Puts up Roadblock to Yucca Mountain Plan

Posted by DavidNYC

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals (which is the appellate court for the D.C. District Court - a court which, by virtue of its location, hears a lot of important cases) issued a ruling this week which seems to put a major roadblock in front of the Bush Administration's plan to store nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Apparently, the appeals panel sided with the feds on every count but one: How long must the waste stored at Yucca be kept safely contained?

The numbers boggle the mind a litte bit: The current plan will (allegedly) protect the waste for 10,000 years. Congress, however, required that the EPA follow the National Academy of Science's guidelines, which call for securing the waste for 350,000 years. The appeals court said that using the shortened timeline was illegal, and hence the present plan is a no-go. And who says Americans only live for the present?

Anyhow, Kerry has been pretty steadfast in his opposition to Yucca, and has been making a campaign issue of it. Edwards, who had voted for Yucca in 2002, has a little tap-dancing to do, but he's fallen quickly in line behind his new boss. In dismissing Edwards' past support for Yucca, Nevada state Senator Dina Titus had a clever line: "Unlike with the Bush administration, the vice president's not in charge in a Kerry administration." And unlike Joe Lieberman's ideologically-based support of school vouchers - which, Maoist re-education camp-style, he had to disavow after Gore tapped him - Edwards' past support for Yucca Mountain was almost certainly a matter of parochial (ie, NIMBY) local politics.

Meanwhile, this issue is growing only more, ah, toxic for Bush. Both Nevada's Republican Governor and Republican U.S. Senator are in strong opposition to Yucca Mountain, putting Bush on the wrong side of this wedge issue in an important battleground state. Unlike most other issues Bush is wrong about - Iraq's ties to Al Qaeda, WMDs, etc., etc. - this one can't be spun: It's a simple yes-or-no. It's not quite clear how this new court ruling will shake out, but by bring Yucca back into the headlines, it can only serve to make Bush look bad.

No polls have been done in NV in quite some time. Let's hope someone does one soon.

Posted at 02:28 AM in Nevada | Comments (3) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 22, 2004

Nader's Ballot Access in the Southwest

Posted by DavidNYC

According to this post on Kos, Nader's spot on the ballot in Arizona is looking more and more precarious - at least in part because convicted felons carried petitions for him, which is a no-no in AZ.

And reader Stan writes in to tell me that Nevada for Nader - a group which had collected 7,000 signatures to place Nader on the ballot as an independent, but had not yet submitted them - has withdrawn its support of Nader now that he's tapped Peter Camejo to be his VP. (Camejo apparently was the Socialist Workers Party presidential candidate in 1976, something which didn't sit well with at least some of NV's independents.) It's not clear to me how Nader will get on the ballot in NV now - whether he'll rely on the state Green Party, or whether he'll go out and collect a new batch of signatures.

Posted at 06:38 PM in Arizona, Nevada | Comments (2) | Technorati

Thursday, May 27, 2004

Purple People Watch

Posted by DavidNYC

There's a new Purple People Watch column up at TAP. The PPW is the only other place I've seen so far (apart from this ol' site) that's dorky enough to say about Maine: "It's less a battleground state than a battleground congressional district." (Thanks to Maine's unusual process for awarding electoral votes.) I'd love to see some more polling from ME - the last one, taken ages ago, gave Kerry a huge lead - but my instincts tell me it's not seriously in play.

In Missouri, Kerry's finally appointed a campaign chief - but, oddly, he won't start work until mid-June. The bad news is that Bush has had someone in place for half a year. The good news (I guess) is that Kerry's setting up shop in MO before Gore and Clinton did.

And following up on a previous item, Kerry did raise the issue of Yucca Mountain on a trip to Nevada back on May 17th. I hope he starts airing ads on the subject, because Nevadans seem to be hopping mad at Bush on this topic - the Las Vegas Sun uses the verboten "L-word" and outright calls Bush a liar for backing down on his promise to halt the project.

Posted at 04:31 PM in General, Maine, Missouri, Nevada | Comments (1) | Technorati

Saturday, May 08, 2004

LA Times on Nevada

Posted by DavidNYC

The LAT has a piece on Nevada-as-tossup-state. Not much new here. Basically, Yucca Mountain might be an issue, but only if we raise it. It strikes me as a definite political winner, so I'm not sure why Kerry hasn't started running ads on it. He should.

The author also says that Bush's cowboy image plays well in NV, but doesn't offer any polling to support it. In fact, two months ago, Bush only got a 48% approval rating there. And though Kerry's been behind by double-digits in the polls, no one has conducted any polling since the middle of March - which is a long time ago in political terms, and prior to any big Kerry ad buys.

(Via Healthy Debate.)

Posted at 10:01 PM in Nevada | Comments (6) | Technorati