Swing State Project

Monday, October 16, 2006

AZ-05, CA-50, MN-02, NM-01: SUSA Shows Huge Movement for Democratic Challengers

Posted by James L.

Survey USA has four hot new polls out today, each showing a signficant bump for Democratic challengers:

AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 45, Hayworth (R) 48
CA-50: Busby (D) 46, Bilbray (R) 49
MN-02: Rowley (DFL) 42, Kline (R) 50
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53, Wilson (R) 45

I'd put up trendlines, etc, but I'm pressed for time. Here's the money quote, though:

In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:

1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.

How crazy would it be if an underfunded, unnoticed Busby managed to knock out Bilbray the second time around? While I still think it's quite unlikely, with numbers like these, it all depends on base motivation. You go, girl!

Posted at 09:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona, California, Minnesota, New Mexico | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Sunday, September 03, 2006

NM-01: Independent Poll Shows a Tight Race

Posted by DavidNYC

Via NM FBI Hop, a new poll on the race for New Mexico's first CD, taken by for the Albuquerque Journal (you'll need to watch a brief ad to access the article) by the firm Research & Polling (likely voters, no trendlines):

Madrid (D): 42
Wilson (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(Moe: ±4.8%)

This poll, apparently the first independent survey of this race, is in line with Madrid's recent internal polling, which showed the race 46-44 Wilson just a few weeks ago.

The troubling thing about this poll is how much better Wilson does with her own party than Madrid. Wilson has the support of 83% of Republicans while only 66% of Democrats favor Madrid. Indeed, 17% of Dems prefer Wilson, while only 8% of GOPers like Madrid. However, this may not be as big a problem as it looks, because Dems outstrip Republicans in voter registration in this district.

The good news is that Bush's approval in the state stands at just 38-51, according to this same poll. As long as Madrid can keep pumping anti-incumbent sentiment, it's going to be hard for Wilson to get out from under that burden.

P.S. I think that this poll is of likely voters - the articles phrase it a bit confusingly, though. If you think otherwise, let us know in comments.

Posted at 03:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Mexico | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

New Mexico, South Dakota Results Open Thread

Posted by James L.

Hmm, okay, how about this: given everything else going on, I don't care what happens in New Mexico tonight. But if anyone's dying to discuss who the GOP nominee to take on Sen. Bingaman is this year, feel free to liveblog that baby in the comments. Anyway...

SD-Gov, 18.12% 67.99% Precincts Reporting:

Jack Billion (D): 5,455 (64.78) 16,616 (61.44)
Dennis Wiese (D): 2,966 (35.22) 10,430 (38.56)

The AP's calling it for Billion.

Posted at 09:14 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, New Mexico, South Dakota | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

NM Races Are Set

Posted by DavidNYC

New Mexico's filing deadline was yesterday. I've written in the past about NM-01, where we have a top-tier matchup. We also have a candidate running against the Republican in NM-02, but this is a very GOP-leaning district (Bush 58-41 over Kerry). Rep. Tom Udall (NM's sole Democratic House member, in the 3rd CD) faces a challenge, but he's safe.

Similarly, Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman and Dem Gov. Bill Richardson will also be challenged but are both in very good shape. CQ has a good roundup on the entire NM scene.

Posted at 07:16 PM in 2006 Elections, New Mexico | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

NM-01: Dem Internal Poll Shows Tie

Posted by DavidNYC

Not long ago, I talked a bit about my beefs with internal polls and why I don't like to report them. If I do write one up, it's usually because it's a House race poll. Why the special treatment? It's simply a question of scarcity: Independent House race polls are incredibly rare. I'd rather have some data - even if it needs a large dose of salt for consumption - than nothing at all. Needless to say, all the usual caveats about internal polls still apply.

All that said, there's yet another interesting internal poll today, though this one has (fortunately) been made public by the campaign which commissioned it. Democrat Patty Madrid, running against incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson in NM-01, put out some very appealing numbers (likely voters, no trendlines):

Madrid: 43
Wilson: 44
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.9%)

The reason I find these numbers credible is because Madrid is an unusually - I would even say exceptionally - strong candidate. For those of you not familiar with her, she is New Mexico's Attorney General. It's very rare for people at the AG level to take on House races, let alone one with an incumbent. (Some people joke that "AG" stands for "Aspiring Governor.") Madrid deserves tremendous credit for instantly putting this seat in play.

Doubtless, she did some polling before she jumped in, and she must have liked what she saw. This latest survey only reinforces the top-tier nature of this race, as does the fact that George Bush is visiting Wilson soon. Undoubtedly, Bush will raise a ton of money for Wilson, but with his approval ratings in the dumpster, Madrid's campaign literature can benefit if any photographers capture a Henry Cuellar moment.

Since you were wondering, Kerry actually carried this district in 2004, 51-48, making it one of very few GOP-held blue CDs in the nation. Wilson also owes her Congressional career to the Green Party, which ran a candidate not once but twice in 1998 (special election and general election) who provided her with the winning margin both times. The Green got double digits in both cases, which gives you a sense of how left-leaning this district is, or at least, can be.

According to this listing (which I surely can't vouch for), the Greens aren't running anyone in NM-01 this year - yet. I just hope it stays that way. Madrid may be a strong candidate, but our quest to take back the House is already tough enough. We don't need any unnecessary difficulties.

Posted at 10:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Mexico | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Monday, October 10, 2005

2008: Western Primary

Posted by Bob Brigham

Swing State Project has written before of the need to let western states be involved with Presidental politics. However, tomorrow's breaking announcement about a 2008 "Western States" presidential primary could change everyone's calculations.

There is a DNC Commission that wants to let two states front-load with Iowa and New Hampshire. But what if instead of two "states" -- it were two elections, including a Western States Primary.

In discussing the new plan to diffuse the early strength, Jerome Armstrong suggests:

So I'd bet that the states that will be added in between, and if I had to guess, I'd go with New Mexico and Nevada as being the two states leading for the southwestern slot, and South Carolina and Alabama for the southern slot.

Solid analysis, but what if the "southwestern spot" was actually one big Western Primary?

Something to think about considerring the following announcement (via email):

Governor Richardson, Utah Governor Huntsman to Make Announcement Concerning Western Primary TUESDAY

SANTA FE – New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Utah Governor Jon Huntsman will hold a press conference at 11:30 am, Tuesday, October 11th, in the Governor’s cabinet room to discuss bipartisan Western Governor’s support for creating a “Western States” Presidential Primary in 2008.

Governor Huntsman is leading a bipartisan delegation of Utah legislators and party leaders to Santa Fe. Accompanying Governor Huntsman are Utah Senate President John Valentine, Utah Senate Minority Leader Mike Dmitrich, Utah House Majority Leader Jeff Alexander, Utah House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, Utah Democratic Party Chair Wayne Holland, Utah Republican Party Chair Joe Cannon.

The Utah delegation will meet with their New Mexico counterparts to discuss the Western Primary and immigration issues.

The Utah delegation will depart Santa Fe in the afternoon.

These two events could come together in a way that would turn conventional wisdom about presidential primaries on it's head.

I'm a big fan of some the Western Strategy: straight talk, bold action, populist, and authentic. In short, four qualities we were missing in 2004.

Could a western primary help bridge this gap? What about the talk of a western 2008 Democratic National Convention? What about both?

Posted at 04:38 PM in 2008 Election - President, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Utah | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Senate 2006: Give 'em Hell Harry!

Posted by Bob Brigham

Senator Harry Reid has done something that every single Democrat in congress needs to do, he started his own actblue page. Additionally, he has a new website, Give 'em Hell Harry.

Washington- Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid today unveiled a new online campaign headquarters - GiveEmHellHarry.com - to provide Americans with the tools to make an impact on the fight for control of the U.S. Senate.

“There is a great deal at stake. While Democrats fight for better health care, energy independence, restoring America's global strength and rebuilding our economy through innovation and reform, Republicans continue to ignore their failures and resist progress,” This website is a place where people can take action. Together, we can change the future.”

Today on GiveEmHellHarry.com, Reid called on Americans to join him in sending a clear, unambiguous message to the nation’s largest oil companies who refused to testify at a Democratic Policy Committee last week on rising gas prices. Reid also is leading efforts with his caucus on an Energy Independence 2020 effort to reduce gas prices and America's dependence on Middle East oil.

“In the face of national tragedy, our nation?s oil companies are recording record profits while Americans are paying 50% more at the pump than they did just one year ago,” Reid said. “Democrats in the Senate have set a national priority to make America safer and more secure by reducing our dependence on foreign oil by 2020. If Republicans can't lead on this issue, we will.”

GiveEmHellHarry.com's formal launch will be supported by paid advertising including billboards in three key western states -- Albuquerque, New Mexico; Phoenix, Arizona; and Helena, Montana -- reaffirming his commitment to winning in the American west.

The name of the site was inspired by an event that occurred during Harry Truman?s successful 1948 presidential campaign. While delivering a speech on a whistle stop tour in Seattle, a supporter yelled to Truman, “Give 'em hell, Harry!” Truman responded, “I don?t give them hell, I just tell the truth and they think it's hell.”

Go check it out.

Posted at 12:03 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona, Montana, Netroots, New Mexico | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Thursday, May 05, 2005

NM-2: Googler Busts Pearce, Flack Resigns in Disgrace

Posted by Bob Brigham

AP:

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - The press secretary for Republican Rep. Steve Pearce resigned after admitting he plagiarized material in a newspaper column published under the congressman's name.

Jim Burns said he copied large parts of a column that ran in the El Defensor Chieftain of Socorro last month from the Web site of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Washington. The column was about energy policy. [...]

El Defensor Editor Dana Bowley said the newspaper went to the foundation's Web site and found the column copied almost word-for-word from a column by a senior policy analyst for the foundation. The paper criticized the column in an editorial.

While true, that doesn't really capture the whole story. El Defensor Chieftain didn't bust Congessman Pearce, a reader did.

With google, anyone can fact-check their congressman. And that is what happened here, from the El Defensor Chieftain:

A letter to the editor in Wednesday's El Defensor Chieftain contends that portions of a recent column we ran from U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce contained passages that were similar to a column by Charli Coon on the Heritage Foundation Web site.

We went to the Web site to check it out and found that our letter writer was being generous. The congressman's column was almost a word-for-word repeat of Coon's column.

Bonus points for the name of the column:

We are a small paper with a limited staff, so we're limited in our ability to cover congressional issues. We run Rep. Pearce's column, which ironically is called "Straight Talk," to allow the congressman to put his message — unfiltered — before the public.

But we expect it to be his message, not unattributed, copyrighted material reprinted without no acknowledgement of permission.

In all fairness, we have no way of knowing if Pearce was aware of the source of the material. And we don't know if this has happened before, but we can't rule it out. As a result, we have informed Rep. Pearce's press secretary by e-mail of our concerns and that we will not run the congressman's columns any longer without assurance that they are original work. As of yet, we have not received a reply.

To some, this may not seem important, but there are significant legal and ethical questions involved. Equally important, however, we believe his constituents expect the congressman to voice his own thoughts, not parrot someone else's.

El Defensor Chieftain is a politically neutral newspaper. Our goal is to present all views, but we have no desire to become an extension of the Heritage Foundation or any group — liberal, conservative or in-between — advancing its political agenda under the guise of a congressman's commentary.

Indeed.

Posted at 09:22 AM in 2006 Elections - House, New Mexico | Technorati

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

NM-01: Romero Newest Member of DKos Dozen

Posted by DavidNYC

The other day, when I was writing up my post on the latest ABQ Journal poll in New Mexico, I came across another set of polls from the same newspaper that covered the state's Congressional races. So I headed over to OurCongress.org (a great resource - check it out if you haven't yet) and wrote up a quick summary of the race in NM's highly competitive first district.

As it turns out, Markos added Richard Romero, the Dem challenger in NM-01, to the DailyKos Dozen today. Romero is a very worthy candidate running in a district where Dems outnumber Republicans & Gore actually won in 2000. His opponent is the hateful Heather Wilson, whose biggest priority appears to be regulating Super Bowl halftime shows. There is no reason why a Republican should be representing this district, so go ahead and give Romero some turkee.

Posted at 03:55 PM in New Mexico | Technorati

Monday, September 06, 2004

Small Bush Lead in NM

Posted by DavidNYC

We have a second poll which straddles the first part of the GOP convention, this time from the Albuquerque Journal (conducted by Research and Polling, a New Mexican polling outfit). Here are the results (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 45
Undecided: 8
Other: 5
(MoE: ��3%)

The "Other" category includes a point each for Nader, Green Party candidate David Cobb and Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik, who some think might actually hurt Bush in neighboring Arizona. You should definitely click on the ABQ Journal story link above - it contains much more internal information about the poll.

Ordinarily, I'd say that the high undecideds (8%) look good for our team. But Bush actually clocks in well ahead of Kerry in the favorability department: 48-42 for Bush vs. 42-47 for Kerry. So if this poll is anything to go by, it may be a pretty big challenge to bring those undecideds home to us.

On the flipside, the pollster (Brian Sanderoff) himself points out that Bush likely benefitted in this survey because of (a) the Republican convention (of course) and (b) the fact that Bush made three stops in NM the day before the poll-taking began. According to the Journal, there was extensive media coverage of these trips. (John Edwards was also in town at the same time.)

The Hispanic vote here is also interesting - 12% are undecided (whereas only 5% of Anglo voters are), which is good news for us. However, 32% said they would vote for Bush. This is below Rove's magical 35% threshold (if Bush gets over that mark among Latinos, the GOP apparently believes he has the election in the bag), but is still pretty high.

Sanderoff has an observation about these numbers which I'm in no position to either confirm or dispute: He says that for a Republican to win in NM, he has to get "at least a quarter of the Democrats and a quarter of the Hispanics." Assuming this is true, then this poll is, in fact, good news for Bush (he's getting 24% of Dems as well). But note Sanderoff said "at least" - that means these factors are necessary but not sufficient. I don't know what else Bush would need to do to win here, but it seems that 25% inroads amongst Dems and Hispanics alone won't do it.

Lastly, I should point out that Kerry leads among independents, 43-31. This survey also covered NM's Congressional races - check out this companion story in today's paper if you are interested in the results. Of interest: Incumbent GOP Rep. Heather Wilson leads challenger Richard Romero 49-43 in the 1st CD. Our Congress lists it as one of the top house races in the country.

Posted at 12:46 PM in New Mexico | Comments (18) | Technorati

Saturday, July 10, 2004

Finally, a New Mexico Poll (and it looks good!)

Posted by DavidNYC

ARG, admittedly not a very beloved pollster, has at least gone ahead and done something no one else has seen fit to do for months: taken a new poll in New Mexico. April results in parens:

Kerry: 51 (47)
Bush: 43 (47)
Undecided: 6 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

An eight-point lead in a state decided by a Florida-size margin in 2000 looks pretty sweet right about now. What's more, Kerry and Edwards just hit the state tonight for a big (10,000-plus) rally. I'm very glad to see this - the Southwest was long overdue for a visit from the top of the ticket. For some truly excellent on-the-ground reporting of this event, check out gehrigsranch's diary on DKos. I personally really enjoy this kind of reportage, far more than some bloodless AP piece.

It also appears that we're (finally) about to open our New Mexico field office. So we've got a bunch of good NM news all at once. One of my fears has long been that by focusing on the three biggest swing states - FL, PA, OH - we might lose the election by the proverbial thousand small cuts: A New Mexico here, an Oregon there, maybe even a Wisconsin or two. Now, I'm sure that the Kerry camp and all our various allies haven't lost sight of all the smaller states (tonight's visit to NM is clear evidence of that), but it is nonetheless reassuring to see us with a decent hold on one of these crucial, if smaller, battlegrounds.

And I just gotta say: How great do these two guys look together?

It seems that both men have huge smiles in every picture I've seen all week - they look like they're really enjoying themselves out there. And Edwards has somehow made me more excited about Kerry - the former seems to have injected some new life and warmth into the latter. I'm not quite at Dean levels yet, but I feel really good about this ticket.

Posted at 01:28 AM in New Mexico | Comments (8) | Technorati

Friday, July 02, 2004

Richardson is Really, Really Out

Posted by DavidNYC

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is truly, finally, absolutely, genuinely, really out of the running for the VP nod - he just sent a letter to Kerry specifically saying he could not accept an offer. Richardson was my favorite in large part for his ability to help us with several important swing states - NM, of course, but also NV, AZ and CO. And he probably even had the potential to help woo Hispanic voters outside the Southwest as well.

Anyhow, I don't think any other potential VP candidate out there offers our ticket such a broad potential swath of swing-state support. Sure, Vilsack might help us keep Iowa, but that's just one state. And I don't believe Gephardt can do very much to help us win Missouri. So I'm now hoping for Edwards, largely because he is an appealing figure - he's articulate, energetic, pretty charismatic and certainly telegenic. In any event, we'll find out soon, maybe as early as Tuesday.

(Via Political Wire.)

Posted at 12:17 PM in New Mexico | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Swing State Roundup Redux

Posted by DavidNYC

TAP had a new Purple People Watch column out last week. It's almost entirely about the Senate races shaping up in the various battleground states.

Meanwhile, Slate has slowly continued its state-by-state series. I should say very slowly: In a month, they've only done two states. Gotta pick up the pace, fellas. Unfortunately, they've changed authors for the latest installment. The tolerable Chris Suellentrop wrote the first piece (on Missouri), but now they have the odious Lord Saletan penning the current piece on West Virginia. Maybe I'll wade through it (it's a three-part "diary" format) at some point. Or maybe I won't.

One really frustrating thing is the Economist's swing state series. All of the articles seem to wind up behind their subscription wall eventually. But for a brief period of time, they sometimes provide a link to the story for free - and that link seems to never expire. I was able to dig up working links for their entries on Pennsylvania and New Mexico. If you can extract links to any other stories in this series, please post `em here.

UPDATE: Okay, so I decided to read Saletan's WV diary, and it's not half-bad. It's pretty striking how conservative West Virginia is - striking because the state has so often voted Democrat in the past, and there's a good chance it'll do so again this year. The trick, says Saletan, is to appeal to protectionist sentiments and to demonstrate appropriate fealty to the military, something war veteran Kerry can actually do.

But Saletan does make one (pretty glaring) error. He says that West Virginians respect authority and have switched to the GOP when a Republican incumbent was running for re-election. (WV went red in `56, `72 and `84). The big problem with this thesis is `92, when incumbent Bush p��re lost. And back then, I'm willing to bet that economic issues did old number 41 in - just like they might once again.

UPDATE: Carl in the comments provides a link for the Economist's Arizona piece. I had also previously posted a link to the inaugural Ohio article.

Posted at 04:28 PM in Arizona, General, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, West Virginia | Comments (4) | Technorati

Friday, May 21, 2004

NM: Bush Surrogates Visit Early & Often

Posted by DavidNYC

One reason - the main reason? - so many people want to see John Kerry pick his VP as soon as possible is so that we can have an effective, top-level surrogate to respond to the Bush team's nasty attacks, while letting Kerry keep his hands clean. Another almost-as-important reason is that it essentially lets Kerry be two places at once: A visit to a state by a VP nominee is nearly as good (in terms of the message you send to that state's voters & the local media coverage you get) as a visit by Kerry himself.

This is actually more important for Kerry than for Bush because Kerry doesn't have an armful of cabinet secretaries he can send shuttling around the country - he really needs his running mate to be his main surrogate. And so far, in the surrogate race, Bush is actually doing a very good job. Check out this list of GOP "luminaries" that have visited New Mexico:

In the past few months, the president has been to New Mexico twice, as has Vice President Dick Cheney. Others in the parade:

�Ģ Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican National Committee, Santa Fe Tuesday.

�Ģ Former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin, in Albuquerque earlier this month.

�Ģ U.S. Secretary of Education Rod Paige last month.

�Ģ Mark Racicot, chairman of the Bush re-election effort, twice.

�Ģ Former President George Bush in January.

Kerry's been to NM twice himself, but hasn't really sent any surrogates. We do, of course, have the best guy in New Mexico on our team, Bill Richardson, but he's apparently heavily involved in national efforts and thus isn't spending as much time at home as he otherwise might.

I do also think Kerry has a pretty good cast of other potential surrogates who are capable of garnerning media attention. Howard Dean, of course, comes to mind first. But Al Gore gets automatic attention as well. I also have to imagine that people like John Edwards, Bill Bradley, and hell, Eliot Spitzer ought to be able to make an impact. And if Dubya can trot out his dad, surely Jimmy Carter can go build a few houses in some swing states. (We gotta be able to do better than "former U.S. treasurer" - man, that's lame. Do you even know who the current one is?)

I grant that it's hard, no matter what, for the Kerry campaign to draw in much political oxygen, especially with all the disastrous news that's been pouring out almost daily for the Bush administration. But the article I linked to isn't some roundup from Newsweek - it's by a local reporter writing in the Albuquerque Tribune, ie, someone who's best situated to keep an accurate count. Even the Kerry campaign acknowledges that they've been slow to deploy their surrogates, though they are promising a "flood" shortly.

Keeping up my "office watch," there apparently is no Kerry office in NM yet. If any New Mexican readers learn of an office opening, I'd be grateful if you could let me know. On the flipside, the "Contact Us" page on the Kerry site now lists their Columbus, OH headquarters.

Posted at 12:48 AM in New Mexico | Comments (6) | Technorati

Monday, February 16, 2004

Outsiders Running NM GOP Efforts (Into the Ground, Hopefully)

Posted by DavidNYC

Reader Jeremy M. sends in the following on-the-ground observations about politicking in all-important New Mexico this season:

Apparently the Bush campaign has basically shut the state GOP out of the 2004 election. The Bush-Cheney coordinator is from out-of-state, and so is the Victory 2004 (RNC) coordinator. They are even "offering" to help with the statewide races, which is usually the state chairman's job - though none of the money raised by Bush and Cheney in the state will go to the state party. Basically, the whole Republican effort will be run and coordinated from out-of-state.

Now this leaves egg on the face of Ramsay Gorham, the new party chair. In December, she played up a compromise that would allow some role for the state party, but in the end, there really isn't one. The chair she ousted, John Dendahl, played the game a little better: this may endanger her position farther down the road. And compared to Richardson, who parlayed New Mexico's swing status (and probably his party connections and ethnic background) into a convention chairmanship, she looks a bit like the redheaded stepchild.

So from a party standpoint, the New Mexico Republicans are in sorry shape. The question is whether having so many "foreigners" running the show will hurt the GOP candidates there. Given Richardson's role in the presidential race, I could easily see that card being played in that arena. But I'm not sure whether or not that will, for example, do much farther down the ballot, such as in Heather Wilson's race to hold the 1st District. Maybe, maybe not.

Lots of people have speculated that one reason for the Dean campaign's collapse in Iowa was the mass importation of the infamous orange-hatted out-of-state volunteers. Of course, it's a little hard to test this thesis, and the GOP may smart enough to employ outsiders only at the top of its NM campaign, rather than on the ground.

But no matter what, if Jeremy's observations are right, Karl Rove is choosing to starve the state party in the hopes of squeaking out a narrow victory in the presidential race. This means that Rove views NM as a fairly desperate situation, and I agree: Like many other political prognositcators, I think NM is firmly trending our way. Rove's evisceration of the state Republican party can only help accelerate that process.

Also, down-ticket candidates may well suffer, if the lion's share of the money raised goes to the candidates at the top of the ballot (ie, Bush and Cheney/Player to be Named Later). Stephen Yellin lists NM's Second District as one of the top 30 Congressional races in the nation, and a prime chance for a D pickup. (The seat is currently held by a Republican.) Brian Watkins also thinks that NM-1 (held by the aforementioned Heather Wilson) could be competitive.

Posted at 11:45 AM in New Mexico | Comments (3) | Technorati