Swing State Project

CONTACT INFO FOR ALL SANTORUM OFFICES IN EXTENDED ENTRY

Washington, D.C. Office:
511 Dirksen Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
Main: 202-224-6324
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Allentown Office:
Counties: Monroe, Carbon, Schuylkill, Northampton, Lehigh, Berks
3802 Federal Office Building
504 West Hamilton Street
Allentown, PA 18101
Main: 610-770-0142
Fax: 610-770-0911
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Altoona Office:
Counties: Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, Fulton, Huntingdon, Somerset
Route 220 North
Regency Square, Suite 220
Altoona, PA 16601
Main: 814-946-7023
Fax: 814-946-7025
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Coudersport Office:
Counties: Cameron, Elk, Forest, Jefferson, McKean, Potter, Tioga
1705 West 26th Street
Erie, PA 16508
Main: 814-454-7114
Fax: 814-459-2096
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Erie Office:
Counties: Clarion, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango, Warren
1705 West 26th Street
Erie, PA 16508
Main: 814-454-7114
Fax: 814-459-2096
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Harrisburg Office:
Counties: Adams, Centre, Clinton, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lycoming, Mifflin, Northumberland, Perry, Union Snyder, York
555 Walnut Street
Harrisburg, PA 17101
Main: 717-231-7540
Fax: 717-231-7542
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Philadelphia Office:
Counties: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia
1 South Penn Square
Widener Building, Suite 960
Philadelphia, PA 19107
Main: 215-864-6900
Fax: 215-864-6910
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Pittsburgh Office:
Counties: Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Westmoreland, Washington
100 West Station Square Drive
Landmarks Building, Suite 250
Pittsburgh, PA 15219
Main: 412-562-0533
Fax: 412-562-4313
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Scranton Office:
Counties: Bradford, Columbia, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Montour, Pike, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming
527 Linden Street
Scranton, PA 18503
Main: 570-344-8799
Fax: 570-344-8906

Posted at 05:45 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Activism, Netroots, Nuclear Option, Pennsylvania, Scandals | Comments (3) | Technorati

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Philly-DA: Results

First and foremost, let me bark about Philadelphia County's election results reporting. You can't follow it in real-time unless you pay a news subscription fee. Long live democracy.

Philly DA: Seth Williams (The Philly Phenomenon) vs. Lynne Abraham.

Update 1: Reporting 5% - Abraham 70% - Williams 30%
Update 2: Reporting 21% - Abraham 59% (13,143) - Williams 41% (9,212)
Update 3: Reporting 70% - Abraham 59% - Williams 41% (KYW Reporting)
Update 4: Reporting 74% - Abraham 58% (50,354)- Williams 42% (36,016)
Update 5: Reporting 90% - Abraham 57% - Williams 43% (KYW)
Update 6: Abraham gives acceptance speech. I Still wonder how well Seth did and will keep you updated as well.
Update 7: Reporting 94% - Abraham 56% (59,542)- Williams 44% (47,218)

Growing Greener: $625 million bond issue to finance a number of environmentally-related projects.

Update 1: Reporting 3% - Yes 65% (7,924)- No 35% (4,339)
Update 2: Reporting 12% - Yes 67%(46,638) - No % 33%(22,566)
Update 3: Reporting 40% - Yes 61%(224,782) - No % 39%(142,170)
Update 4: Reporting 64% - Yes 61%(385,288) - No % 39%(245,066)

Another Update: Returns should start coming in from the L.A. Mayor race. Bob will be following that when he returns.

Posted at 09:27 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Inq on "Philadelphia Phenomenon" - Seth Williams

Philadelphia Inquirer:

While blog power has been well-celebrated in national politics - consider bloggers' role in former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's brief reign as a front-running Democratic presidential candidate last year - the Williams effort is considered one of the few attempts ever to unite electronic activists around a candidate for local office. [...]

Though it seems modest, a national Democratic political consultant who specializes in Internet organizing sees the Philadelphia effort as a beginning. Bloggers in Pittsburgh have been talking up a candidate in the mayoral primary there.

"A lot of national campaigns see the Internet as a glorified ATM machine," said Tim Tagaris, the consultant working to set up Chuck Pennacchio's 2006 U.S. Senate campaign in Pennsylvania. "Regionalization is going to be the next wave," Tagaris said.

He also has written extensively about the Philadelphia phenomenon on his national blog, Swing State Project. Tagaris said that local blogs, with their small audiences, have the same organizing potential in cyberspace as the neighborhood networks that President Bush's reelection campaign put together to win support in small towns and rural areas.

"It's that same peer-to-peer strategy, but online," Tagaris said. "Millions of people have blogs, but they are read for the most part by neighbors, friends, coworkers and family. You are able to influence a few people at a time." (emphasis mine)

Tim had an important post on Philly's localization yesterday, and right now I have front-paged diaries on Daily Kos and MyDD about regionalization.

More from the Inq:

Williams strategists say they believe the bloggers provide at least a modest counterweight to District Attorney Lynne M. Abraham's power. She is a 14-year veteran who has plenty of campaign cash - but so far no bloggers - and the support of Democratic Party ward leaders.

"The bloggers tend to be leaders," said Ray Murphy, who runs Williams' Internet operation. "I think of them as carrier pigeons spreading the word." [...]

Blogs can have more power locally because those who write them tend to be influential, active and have extensive social networks in their communities, said Julie Barko Germany, deputy director of the Institute for Politics, Democracy & the Internet at George Washington University. "People are just starting to discover the possibilities," Barko Germany said. [...]

In coming days, the Williams campaign plans to include canvassing lists on its Web site for supporters to download, Murphy said. Campaign literature and window signs already are available there.

"We want to get Seth's name and ideas out to as many households as possible," Murphy said.

For more on Seth William, check out Swing State Project on April 21, April 28, May 2, and May 9.

If you live within driving distance of Philly, join them next Tuesday for GOTV.

Posted at 09:51 AM in Netroots, Pennsylvania, Site News | Technorati

Monday, May 09, 2005

Philly-DA: Big Mo' for Seth Williams

Over the past two weeks, Philadelphia bloggers have alerted me to big news brewing in the "City of Brotherly Love." They have rallied behind Democratic District Attorney candidate Seth Williams in a contested primary against incumbent Lynn Abraham. The reasons they find this specific primary race so important are best elucidated by Daniel of Young Philly Politics.

Just the other day, a reporter from the Philadelphia Inquirer called me to talk about why a bunch of local bloggers rallying around Seth Williams is relevant. We talked for about 45 minutes and he is apparently set to run an article tomorrow about the Netroots support for Williams. We talked about what I have written about HERE and HERE. But most importantly, Williams now has the Big Mo', despite being outspent 26-1 in the race. Just yesterday, the eighth largest paper in the country, The Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Seth Williams.

But Philadelphians don't have to wait for Abraham to wake up one day and realize she has stayed "too long." They have a chance now to choose a worthy successor to Abraham with fresher, better ideas to fight crime in their city. His name is SETH WILLIAMS, and The Inquirer recommends him to Democratic voters in their party's May 17 primary.

Posted at 09:11 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

PA-Sen: Chuck Pennacchio Joins Princeton Filibuster

Regular Swing State Project readers know that when Tim isn't posting here, he is directing communications for Chuck Pennacchio, who is running against Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania.

Today they are in New Jersey, joining the Princeton Filibuster: www.FilibusterFrist.com (see here, here, here, and here).

I just got off the phone with Tim...

Professor Pennacchio begins speaking at 3PM local time, with Chris Matthews doing a Harball interview beginning at 4PM.

Because of the media attention, there are rumors of a College Republican protest, but it is unknown what size of crowd they would be able to turn out.

They are closing in on Hour 173 with no end in sight. Right now, there are around 25 students at the event and the MSNBC crew is setting up.

The mood is festive, with refreshments and people seem to be having fun.

Tim is decked out with the postmodern politics toolkit: laptop, cell phone, mic, video and still digitals. You can watch the event on the webcam at www.FilibusterFrist.com.

More to come...

Posted at 02:41 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Nuclear Option, Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Monday, May 02, 2005

PA-Sen: Abortion Hurting Casey Fundraising

You might remember Barbara Hafer, the pro-choice Democrat that was forced out of the Pennsylvania Senate race to support Bob Casey, Jr. Casey's last period fundraising report was disgraceful, with the candidate only raising $90,000. Could his anti-rights stance on abortion be the reason why? From USA Today:

After meeting with Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a former Democratic national chairman, Hafer agreed to step aside. But she doesn't sound happy about it.

"I've heard from many, many, many women and men who are not just pro-choice but are very concerned about the shift of emphasis in the party," Hafer says.

"I think it hurts fundraising. It certainly hurts the base of the party." She says she felt compelled to do what Rendell felt was best for Democrats.

"If that's accurate or not," she adds, "only time will tell."

Hafer's views became irrelevant when she let herself get steamrolled. As for whether the women's groups will have relevance in deciding how Democrats talk about abortion, only the primary will tell.

Posted at 09:19 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (5) | Technorati

Thursday, April 21, 2005

PA-Sen: Santorum, from Showdown to Slowdown

The Hill:

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), a leading advocate of the “nuclear option” to end the Democrats’ filibuster of judicial nominees, is privately arguing for a delay in the face of adverse internal party polls.

Details of the polling numbers remain under wraps, but Santorum and other Senate sources concede that, while a majority of Americans oppose the filibuster, the figures show that most also accept the Democratic message that Republicans are trying to destroy the tradition of debate in the Senate.

The Republicans are keeping the “nuclear” poll numbers secret, whereas they have often in the past been keen to release internal survey results that favor the party.

While these numbers are secret, Santorum's poll numbers are public and sinking. The GOP now has solid evidence that the "nuclear option" is political suicide, yet they will probably do it anyway. The backlash brewing against the zealots could be a powerful force in 2006 Senate elections. While Santorum may have cold feet, this has gone too far for Frist to chicken out. As the 2008 Presidential campaign heats up, it looks like Frist is the crazy one and Santorum the one doing the daring, but too chicken to do the deed. Keep handing them rope and please, somebody make some popcorn.

Posted at 02:48 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, 2008 President - Republicans, Pennsylvania, Republicans | Technorati

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

PA-04: Heinz Not Challenging Melissa Hart

AP:

"I'm definitely not doing it in 2006. I've thought about it in my life, but it's just not right at this particular time," [Chris] Heinz told The Associated Press by phone from New York City, where he lives.

If you ask me, that's best for all. It would be one thing to live in Pittsburgh and go for it, but when a reporter calls you at home in another state to ask if you're running, the correct answer is usually no.

This is a good district, and this move by Heinz allows Democrats the opportunity to come at this from the ground up.

Posted at 10:06 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Technorati

PA-Sen: Financial Reports

The Morning Call has fundraising totals for the 2006 Senate Race.

WASHINGTON -- | Sen. Rick Santorum raked in nearly $2 million in campaign contributions during the first three months of the year, giving himself a large financial head start over Democrat Bob Casey Jr.

Santorum's haul, combined with money raised earlier, gave him $2.8 million in cash on hand as of March 30.

Casey, who entered the race in early March, raised $90,000 and had just $73,500 in the bank after expenses, according to his financial report."

Casey has overwhelming name ID and received a good deal of press when he announced. It is troubling to see such a poor outpouring of support, if Casey excited people even slightly he should have been able to have raised three times that from people not asked, but looking, to give. Santorum may have off the chart negatives, but it looks like Democrats are taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes Casey Jr.

Posted at 08:35 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Monday, April 18, 2005

PA-Sen: Choosing on Choice?

As Lakoff says, when you negate a frame you invoke the frame. In Pennsylvania's 2006 Senate race, we are seeing this proven. In the past two days, the Philadelphia Inquirer has devoted a large number of column inches towards examining the subject that the DC insiders said wouldn't be an issue: Choice.

Yesterday, Karen Heller had a column titled, No primary for you. The sub-head read, "With Senate candidates like these, one thing's certain: Women lose."

If Casey defeats Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania will have the dubious distinction of fielding one of the Senate's most moderate Republicans and one of its most conservative Democrats, so conservative the Republicans will wonder why he isn't theirs.

Casey was chosen for several reasons: name, name, name, and that his politics are virtually indistinguishable from those of Santorum, to say nothing of his looks, age and family life.

Like his father - did we mention that his father was the late governor Robert Casey? - the state treasurer is staunchly anti-abortion. He's also staunchly against gun control.

Choice as an issue will not matter in the Pennsylvania race. There is no choice.

Well, actually there is. Which Carrie Budoff and Thomas Fitzgerald report on today:

But as a 2006 U.S. Senate candidate, recruited by national Democrats for one of its highest-profile races, Casey will be forced to address abortion as he seeks the nomination from a party in which he holds the minority view. [...]

Top Democratic leaders see Casey as their best chance against Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, who worked for eight years to help pass the 2003 ban on late-term abortions. To win the nomination, Casey must first get by Chuck Pennacchio, a University of the Arts professor who supports abortion rights.

So will choice become an issue in the primary?

"A lot of women will make sure that not a nickel of their money goes to Casey," said Kim Gandy, head of the National Organization for Women, which has gathered 13,000 signatures on a Web protest petition.

There is even talk of wealthy donors boycotting the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in retaliation. You can see the passion in the Karen Heller piece:

Casey is not an appealing choice to progressive women. Specifically, he makes this progressive woman ill.

Santorum and Casey are like the old Patty Duke Show, they walk alike and talk alike and, gee, if you can tell them apart, please, let me know. [...]

Both parties should be open to more voices. I just don't want Bob Casey's voice representing mine.

Casey's Web site offers no positions yet, though he's uttered plenty of hollow platitudes about "supporting working families." Aren't we all for working families?

He supports various welfare entitlements which, a cynic might point out, poor women are going to need, especially if access to choice keeps diminishing.

Like all voters, Philadelphians ought to be selfish. Women voters ought to be selfish. I don't see either candidate representing my interests, or those of a lot of other women.

I've asked social and political activists why, more than a year before the election, this huge state can't produce better candidates instead of Brylcreemed clones. One organizer said to me, "I tend to support causes that have a realistic chance of getting accomplished."

There has to be more choice than none.

As regular readers know, Swing State Project's Tim Tagaris directs communication for pro-Choice Democrat Chuck Pennacchio. He offers his take on MyDD and Daily Kos.

I have two concerns at this point.

My first concern is that by negating Choice as an issue, it has become the defining story of the campaign. By agreeing with Santorum, not only are we turning off our base, but we also threaten to invoke right-wing frames by signaling to voters that the right has the good ideas. As the storyboard of the 2006 campaign unfolds as a backlash against the theocrats assault upon personal rights, my worry is that Democrats may be unable to take advantage of the national debate in this key race.

My greater concern is that some DC consultants want to move Democrats away from individual rights at a time that we should be highlighting our defense of civil liberties. Pennsylvania will be the most nationalized race in 2006, my choice is for a candidate who is on message with the rest of the Party.

There are ways that anti-choice candidates can approach the issue without harming the Party. But this isn't it:

Like his father, Casey Jr. said he believes the government's right to protect the vulnerable includes the unborn. He bases his conviction on biology, he said, not his Catholic theology.

"There's a life there," he said.

Casey said he will not make it a defining issue.

Regardless of what the Casey campaign is planning, with a stance like that I don't see how abortion can be anything other than the defining issue.

Posted at 01:18 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Democrats, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

PA-Sen: Democratic Party Should Give Back the Money

The Pennsylvania Democratic Party is campaigning hard -- to win the award for the most incompetent Democratic organization in America.

The best thing Senator Rick Santorum has going for the fact that the his opposition party is lead by T.J. Rooney and Don Morabito.

Yesterday, the PA Democratic Party made a major play against Senator Santorum. Don't worry if you didn't hear about it, you aren't alone.

They issued a press release, but it flopped in the traditional media.

The press release did find it's way to Politics PA (that has a section where they post any press release) and Big News Daily. If you have a paid subscription to the National Journal or Roll Call you might have read about it.

But a lot of people who would have been interested in reading about it, didn't. Which is too bad, because people should have read about it.

In a shocking display of incompetence, it isn't even listed on the PA Dems website. It isn't listed on the PA Dems blog, because Morabito has zero understanding of blogs:

For the next hours, scattered among questions about the 2006 US Senate race, people insisted that the state party step up and start communicating with us.

It ain't gonna happen (I believe that is even a quote).

What was the excuse? He said money. I told him the party would raise money online. He said that the state party is in debt. I told him that getting a blog up can be free. He said they didn't have staff to work it. I told him there were plenty out there that would love to write for the blog. I even pointed to Chris Bowers of MyDD (sorry Chris). He said they hired a consultant from Massachusettsto look into it. Great...

And they wonder why they have lost 14 straight full-term U.S. Senate elections in PA.

The fact that it flopped in traditional media shouldn't have mattered as much as it did because people should have read about it online. This could have spread like wildfire across the blogosphere, but it didn't.

You see, Don Morabito is unqualified to participate in post-modern politics. Just like you wouldn't want him to perform surgery on you or try to fix your car, I don't want him anywhere near a key senate race.

So when it comes to giving back money, I think that the PA Democratic Party should give donors back the money that has been wasted on Don Morabito's salary.

This is a character test for T.J. Rooney. He should admit poor judgment, and return the wasted money.

Posted at 12:54 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Monday, April 11, 2005

Tom DeLay Scandal: Reps. Blunt, Nussle, and Gerlach hit with ads

Press Release:

Public Campaign, a nonpartisan money and politics watchdog group, will launch television advertisements in three congressional districts tomorrow to build pressure on Republican members of Congress to demand Majority Leader Tom DeLay's resignation. The ads will run in:

-- The 7th Congressional District of Missouri, currently represented by Majority Whip Roy Blunt

-- The 6th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, currently represented by Rep. Jim Gerlach

-- The 1st Congressional District of Iowa, currently represented by Rep. Jim Nussle

"With Rep. Chris Shays' courageous statement yesterday calling on Tom DeLay to step down, we are turning up the heat on Republican members to join him," said David Donnelly, National Campaigns director of Public Campaign. "DeLay's big money scandals and cash-and-carry politics should be repudiated by elected officials everywhere."

www.withoutdelay.org

Posted at 06:25 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Iowa, Missouri, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Saturday, April 02, 2005

Choice in Pennsylvania: Abortion and 2006 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate

Associated Press: Abortion stance could haunt Casey in Senate bid

But like Santorum, Klink, and Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who helped talk Casey into running, Casey opposes abortion rights. And that could give moderate Republicans in the important Philadelphia suburban swing region one less reason to cross party lines as they did in large numbers to help elect Rendell in 2002.

Casey is unlikely to avoid the abortion question even in the Democratic primary.

Despite Rendell's attempts to clean house, at least one candidate who favors abortion rights has vowed to compete against Casey in the primary — Charles F. "Chuck" Pennacchio, 45, a history professor at The University of the Arts in Philadelphia. A longtime Democratic organizer, Pennacchio has not run for office before but said his campaign has raised about $25,000 so far.

While Pennacchio's campaign is more about using the power of the Internet and low-key "meet-ups" with the candidate to promote grass roots activism within the party, a spokesman said Pennacchio definitely will raise the subject of abortion in the primary campaign.

"It's an issue that voters in the Democratic primary are concerned about," said the spokesman, Tim Tagaris, citing Senate Democrats' efforts to block judicial nominees who oppose abortion.

Yes, that is Swing State Project contributor Tim Tagaris getting the nationwide ink. Earlier this week, Tagaris was referred to as a blogging guru in the Pennsylvania press.

The AP article gives the history:

Ron Klink's experience is Bob Casey's bad dream.

Klink, a onetime TV news anchorman in Pittsburgh and a longtime congressman, lost the 2000 U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Rick Santorum after a campaign that failed for various reasons to gain traction. [...]

In the general election campaign, Klink said, national party leaders' promises of financial and field support failed to materialize. [...]

Klink said he was proud to be a "Casey Democrat" — a reference to Casey's father, the late governor, whose strong views made him a national hero to the anti-abortion movement. He bitterly recalled being portrayed as "Santorum Light" during the 2000 primary because of his abortion stance and blamed his defeat partly on Democrats who refused to vote for him for that reason.

By a 2:1 margin, Pennsylvania Democrats prefer a pro-choice candidate. The worry about moderate Republicans and Independents not supporting Casey is born not just from history, but also from the fact that 40% of Republicans and 54% of Independents also prefer pro-choice candidates. This is something people notice.

If Tagaris says it is going to be an issue, then it is going to be an issue. The national attention to the issue signals that it will be heard and the polling suggests it may play a major role. No wonder, "haunt" was the word used in the headline.

Posted at 08:10 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Comments (6) | Technorati

U.S. Senate "Nuclear Option" and 2006 midterm elections

Over at DailyKos, Kargo X has kickstarted a conversation on the coming "Nuclear Option" -- the Republican scheme to end the filibuster and gain absolute power.

If the GOP pushes forward with this power grab, it will force a major backlash against Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections. During the Schiavo usurpation, Bush dropped 10 pts in the time it took for Santorum to permanently tie himself to the issue.

If the GOP continues their quest for absolute power, the backlash will be severe. Already, Democrats have 12 Republican Senators (facing re-election in 2006) on record with their Social Security vote.

It has become conventional wisdom that Americans oppose the GOP plan to privatize Social Security. If the GOP moves for absolute control of the Senate while Bush forces privatization then the storyline gets a villian in a potent way. Add Tom DeLay as the public face of Republicans in Congress, a splintering of the conservative coalition, and a united Democratic Party. Together, this could result in a major restructuring of party perception in a nationalized 2006 midterm election cycle.

Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) wants to be President so he needs to protect his record. In addition, the following Republican Senators need to worry about running for re-election in 2006:

• Senator George Allen (R-VA)*
• Senator Conrad Burns (R-MT)*
• Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)*
• Senator Mike DeWine (R-OH)
• Senator John Ensign (R-NV)*
• Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)*
• Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)*
• Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)*
• Senator Trent Lott (R-MS)*
• Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN)*
• Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)*
• Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
• Senator Jim Talent (R-MO)*
• Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY)*

* Social Security: on record voting in favor of "deep benefit cuts or a massive increase in debt."

In addition, such a move would allow the following Democrats a hero vote to bolster their 2006 re-elections:

• Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI)
• Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)
• Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV)
• Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
• Senator Thomas Carper (D-DE)
• Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
• Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND)
• Senator Jon Corzine (D-NJ)
• Senator Mark Dayton (D-MN)
• Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
• Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
• Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI)
• Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT)
• Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE)
• Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL)
• Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)

Posted at 06:36 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Nuclear Option, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming | Technorati

Friday, April 01, 2005

Rhode Island 2006 Democratic Party Primary for U.S. Senate

Providence Journal:

PROVIDENCE -- Rhode Island's former attorney general and U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse advised close family and friends earlier this week that he has decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Lincoln D. Chafee.

Barring the unexpected, Whitehouse's long-anticipated entry into the closely watched Senate race guarantees the spectacle of a two-man fight for the Democratic nomination to take on Chafee in November 2006.

A formal announcement by the 49-year-old Whitehouse is expected Monday, but he signaled his decision in a series of e-mails in which he foresaw that U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy would pull himself out of the running before the week was out.

Facing a potentially costly primary contest against Secretary of State Matthew Brown, the only announced Democratic candidate for Chafee's Senate seat so far, Whitehouse also took the occasion to state the obvious: "I will have to become a fundraising demon in the new quarter, which will bring you expensive requests for contributions, contacts and so forth."

This sounds a lot like Pennsylvania, almost sounds like a pattern...

Party Bosses back a candidate who lost a Primary campaign for his state's top job:

In 1998, [Whitehouse] beat out two Democratic competitors to become the state's attorney general, but did not survive a three-way primary when he ran for governor four years later. He trailed former state Sen. Myrth York by 926 votes, with then-Rep. Antonio Pires placing a distant third.

Candidate hires top-dollar consultants:

Whitehouse advised these supporters on Tuesday he had already opened a campaign account and hired well-known Washington political consultant Mike Donilon. [...]

When asked whether the Washington-based Donilon, a top adviser to Sen. John F. Kerry's presidential campaign who also worked on the Rhode Island campaigns of U.S. Sen. Jack Reed and Providence Mayor David N. Cicilline, was already on the Whitehouse campaign payroll, Preston said: "Mike would be part of any Whitehouse campaign team."

(Preston said the Rhode Island race would be one of two high-profile races for Donilon, who has also signed on to work for the reelection of one of the national GOP's top Democratic targets in '06, freshman Florida Sen. Bill Nelson.)

Campaign uses other elected officials to strong-arm and force out any other Democrats (so candidate doesn't lose like he he did in gubernatorial primary):

Without formally announcing, Whitehouse already has the backing of many in the state's political elite, including Kennedy and Langevin, who have both publicly urged the 35-year-old Brown, who is midway through his first term in office, to get out of the race. [...]

Brown campaign spokesman Matt Burgess said the secretary of state has no intention of leaving the race, and "looks forward to a thorough and thoughtful discussion of how to best solve the problems people in Rhode Island are facing everyday."

Burgess also sought to minimize the significance of Whitehouse's high-wattage political backing, saying: "This race is going to be decided by people in Rhode Island -- not a handful of political insiders and politicians. It just doesn't work that way anymore."

The State Democratic Party comes out against democracy:

But state Democratic Party Chairman William Lynch said: "It's never a good thing to have primaries."

Never. As is in democratic primaries are not ever good; on no occasion; at no time; under no circumstances. Letting the People participate in democracy is never a good thing.

Posted at 05:18 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island | Comments (4) | Technorati

Thursday, March 31, 2005

Senator Rich Santorum is a liar

Philadelphia Inquirer:

Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean ripped into U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at a party fund-raiser in Old City last night.

Dean, a former Vermont governor and former Democratic presidential candidate, called Santorum, a Republican who is up for reelection in Pennsylvania in 2006, a "liar" and "right-winger" who actually lives in Virginia.

"He doesn't tell the truth," Dean told a gathering of about 150 at Bluezette on Market Street.

Dean said Santorum had voted to kill Amtrak, an important service in Pennsylvania, and had then turned around and written a piece for The Inquirer saying he supported Amtrak.

He said that Santorum should return the more than $100,000 that Santorum's declared home school district, the Penn Hills School District in Allegheny County, paid over the last few years to educate his children at the Pennsylvania Cyber Charter School.

While attending the school online, Santorum's children actually lived at his house in the Virginia suburbs of Washington. The charter school and the Penn Hills district are in a dispute over payments for Santorum's children. Santorum has maintained that he has followed the law.

Dean joked that Santorum should "stay in Virginia," although he added that the senator was "too much of a right-winger for Virginia. How about Venezuela?"

In Pennyslvania's 2006 U.S. Senate race, Rick Santorum is being challenged by Chuck Pennacchio and Bob Casey, Jr.

Posted at 02:57 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

2006 Pennsylvania Senate Primary: Internet-fueled challenge

This morning's Philadelphia Inquirer:

If Chuck Pennacchio's candidacy was judged by conventional campaign standards, he would stand little chance in the 2006 U.S. Senate race.

The Democratic establishment bypassed the Philadelphia professor earlier this month to line up behind state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. Pennacchio has never run for statewide office. And he has pledged to reject money from special interests in favor of small individual donations.

All of that could have buried Pennacchio from the start just a few years ago, but not necessarily these days when Web logs, or blogs, can lift an obscure candidate into the realm of contender.

Pennacchio and his small, Web-savvy staff have been leaving footprints across dozens of blogs during the last month, hoping their Internet presence - combined with traditional campaigning - builds a loyal grassroots following to rival Casey's stranglehold on the establishment.

"Wherever you look - we'll be there. Like a bad pop-up ad for the University of Phoenix," Pennacchio's 28-year-old blogging guru, Tim Tagaris, wrote on one Web site, referencing that school's Internet saturation.

Blogging guru, eh?

Pennacchio's Internet approach is a smart way to jump-start an outsider's campaign, such as Howard Dean did in the 2004 presidential race, said Daniel M. Shea, director of Allegheny College's Center for Political Participation.

The ol' Howard Dean comparision, I hope Tim is prepared to deal with front-runner's syndrome...

Pennacchio, who hopes to raise $3 million for the primary, has asked his supporters to start their own blogs. He spent $5,000 on his first ad buy. But that kind of money wouldn't buy a few seconds on TV or radio, so he blanketed 18 national and local blogs. Pennacchio held his first conference call in late February. But instead of gathering print and broadcast media, he discussed his campaign with 10 Pennsylvania and New Jersey bloggers, including a 16-year-old.

"They are opinion leaders and they need to be respected," Pennacchio said.

How else would SheaBrianna Christilaw, 24, a Pittsburgh student and author of the blog Urban Democracy, have gotten involved in his campaign this early? She's organizing a Friday reception during his first swing through Western Pennsylvania.

Dan Urevick-Ackelsberg, a writer for Young Philly Politics, said Pennacchio appeared to be benefiting not so much from anti-Casey sentiment - "I think a lot of people were very happy with him running" - but anger stemming from efforts by Democratic leaders to clear the primary field.

"It is this presumption from the state party that they know best," Urevick-Ackelsberg, 23, said. "People want to feel more like they can have a say."

Pennacchio has "a lot of potential," Urevick-Ackelsberg said, but a far way to go.

"It would be the upset of all upsets."

More from the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean, scheduled to appear tonight at a Center City fund-raiser, said the party would do "anything we can" to defeat Republican Sen. Rick Santorum next year.

The expected clash between Santorum and the consensus Democratic candidate, State Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr., already is intensifying. Dean's GOP counterpart, Ken Mehlman, last week said reelecting Santorum was his party's top priority. [...]

Casey faces an Internet-fueled challenge for the nomination from Chuck Pennacchio, a University of the Arts professor.

"realm of contender"
"Web-savvy"
"loyal grassroots following"
"Internet saturation"
"smart way to jump-start an outsider's campaign"
"blanketed 18 national and local blogs"
"the upset of all upsets"
"Internet-fueled challenge"

It looks like Tim has been busy when he isn't blogging for Swing State Project.

Posted at 07:25 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Monday, March 28, 2005

Schumer takes heat for anti-Choice candidate

From the New York Post:

In Pennsylvania, for example, where Democrats believe they have a decent chance of toppling anti-abortion conservative Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, Schumer had a hand in luring State Treasurer Bob Casey, an anti-abortion Democrat, into the race.

Clearing the primary field for Casey required elbowing out of the way a pro-choice Democratic woman who wanted to take on Santorum — and the hard-ball move has left some hard feelings.[...]

Women's-advocacy groups are steaming that Schumer, who himself strongly supports abortion rights, is working behind the scenes to recruit pro-life candidates.

National Abortion Rights Action League president Kate Michelman called Schumer's actions "disturbing," while Emily's List spokeswoman Ramona Oliver said she was stunned by what the New York Democrat is doing.

Posted at 01:35 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Saturday, March 26, 2005

2006 Pennsylvania Senate "virtual" campaign

Bob Novak seems to think Tim doesn't exist:

Dole's Democratic counterpart, Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, has guaranteed a virtually uncontested primary in Pennsylvania for the strongest Democratic candidate, State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., against Senate Republican Conference Chairman Rick Santorum.

Virtually, it appears the 2006 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary is very contested.

Posted at 09:47 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Comments (7) | Technorati

REAL Ultimate PA Power

When I saw the headline, "Ninja to Take Over Pennsylvania's Central Susquehanna Valley," I knew it must be about gearing up for the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate election.

Remember The Facts:

1. Ninjas are mammals.

2. Ninjas fight ALL the time.

3. The purpose of the ninja is to flip out and kill people.

You have a choice.

If you don't believe that ninjas have REAL Ultimate Power you better get a life right now or they will chop your head off!!! It's an easy choice, if you ask me.

An easy choice indeed.

Posted at 08:41 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

Casey/Santorum: Dead Heat

A new poll released by Patriot News/WGAL-TV in Pennsylvania shows Bobby Casey Jr.'s lead over arch-Republican Rick Santorum is down to one percent. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first (or second?) public poll since the "official announcement" of Casey Jr.

March 22, 2005 (MoE +/- 4.2%)

Bobby Casey Jr. - 44%
Rick Santorum - 43%

February 16, 2005 (MoE +/- 2.8%)

Bobby Casey Jr. - 46%
Rick Santorum - 41%

These two results come after a DSCC poll released around January 13, 2005 that showed Casey with a 52% to 38% lead over Santorum.

Disclaimer: I am working Democratic candidate Chuck Pennacchio's online outreach

Posted at 09:52 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Vote on Social Security

Yesterday, the Senate gave the following statement an up or down vote:

"It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should reject any Social Security plan that requires deep benefit cuts or a massive increase in debt."

Here are the 12 Senators (standing for re-election in 2006) who voted for deep social security cuts and massive debt:

Allen, George VA
Burns, Conrad MT
Chafee, Lincoln RI
Ensign, John NV
Hatch, Orrin UT
Hutchison, Kay Bailey TX
Kyl, Jon AZ
Lott, Trent MS
Lugar, Richard IN
Santorum, Rick PA
Talent, Jim MO
Thomas, Craig WY

Here is the link to the vote.

Posted at 09:24 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming | Technorati

Friday, March 11, 2005

Santorum Funeral

Last time Senator Rick Santorum was seriosly slapped around, it was due to two bloggers. Chris Bowers and Tim Tagaris went to a Townhall meeting the Senator was throwing.

Tim captured the legendary video footage of the College Republicans chanting, "Hey-hey, Ho-ho, Social Security has got to go.

Once inside, Bowers got Santorum to admit that he couldn't name a single Democrat willing to privatize.

Now, the two are at the Funeral March for Social Security.

Bowers told me that there are well over 200 people marching and that the sound is echoing off the buildings...creating a roar.

Tim has a camera again and told me, "People do real stupid things when you turn the camera on." He claims to have, "great video" of the protest.

UPDATE: There is a great deal of press...at least eight cameras. Bowers says they are loud enough to be heard inside.

more to come...

Posted at 05:32 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Activism, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Friday, March 04, 2005

What a day...

When we started the day, Barbara Hafer was in the PA Senate race to stay, Bob Casey Jr. was unsure, no word from Joe Hoeffel, and Chuck Pennacchio wasn't going anywhere.

Well, at around noon, the stuff really hit the fan. Casey is now in, Hafer is now out, still no word from Hoeffel, and Pennacchio remains steady.

Read more at PoliticsPA.

Apparently the back-room efforts have paid dividends for the Casey Jr. campaign. I suppose its only a matter of time before Hafer is offered the Lt. Governor position for her party loyalty.

Pennacchio website

Casey Jr.'s new website

Posted at 01:10 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (4) | Technorati

Thursday, March 03, 2005

State Party Blog Project

You can lend a hand with Pennsylvania, and have immediate impact. Tonight, I am meeting with the Executive Director of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, Don Morabito.

The local DFA asked me to speak to him about the importance of getting a blog up on the PA State Party website. So, that's where you come into play.

Are you from Pennsylvania?

If you are, please send me an email letting me know what it is you would like to see from a brand new Pennsylvania Democratic Party website. Let me know how you want the state party to use a blog in their grassroots outreach. In fact, pass along whatever you want passed to Morabito.

I will collect the emails and bring them into the meeting:

If you aren't from PA, feel free to write something on how your state party uses its blog, or even how you have seen blogs as an effective fundraising, organizational, and communication tool.

I will pass those along as well. I hope we can get about 10-15 of them by the time the meeting starts.

Thanks,

Tim

ttagaris@yahoo.com

Posted at 10:59 AM in Activism, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Monday, February 28, 2005

Two jokes

As some know by now, former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver Lynn Swan is making a run at Ed Rendell in the 2006 Pennsylvania Gov. race. Of course, the campaign is "Alan Keyeseque," a feeble attempt by Republicans to get a well-known placeholder up to help other races up and down the ballot. I mean, when the Green Party is effectively making a mockery of your campaign, maybe it's time to re-think?

Former Green Party candidate for governor, Michael Morrill, today declared his intention to try out for the position of wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Morrill admits he has no experience in organized football, has only a casual fan’s understanding of the game and at age 50 might be a little slow for the National Football League. When asked why he thought he might be qualified to be a wide receiver for the Steelers, Morrill said he was inspired by four-time Super Bowl Champion Lynn Swann. “If Lynn Swann can run for governor with absolutely no public policy experience, why shouldn’t I be able to try out for the Steelers?” Morrill responded.

Morrill was also asked what he thought his chances were to make the Steelers. “About the same as Swann’s chances to be elected governor,” he replied.

heh.

Posted at 12:51 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Rick Santorum Video From Yesterday

Here is the video I shot from the town hall meeting yesterday featuring Rick Santorum. Disclaimer, I work for the candidate whose site it is posted on.

That out of the way, there are two clips:

1.) Drexel College Republicans chanting "Hey hey, ho ho, social secrurity has got to go," as Santorum enetered the building.

2.) Chris Bowers calling out Santorum on an earlier statement by the Senator that Democratic colleagues of his supported privatization. Nice try Rick.

Tim

Posted at 12:18 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Activism, General, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Report From Santorum Soc. Sec. Event in Philly

(video coming tomorrow of said events)

The first stop on Rick Santorum's re-election campaign this morning was Philadelphia, Pennsylvania--Drexel University. First of all, let me tell that I got lost on the way (not being from PA), and drove around for around 45 minutes more than I had to.

It was worth it...

I got there at around 9 A.M. in time to witness the pre-protest taking place outside of the ballroom the event was to take place in. At first it was a bunch of Drexel College Democrats standing outside, getting organized and passing out pamphlets. Then the College Republicans started strolling down the pavement.

You can see them coming from a mile away, or smell them coming, or sense them coming, whatever... It's funny, cause they feel like they have to put on a show; it's not even about supporting Santorum, it almost seemed like it was more about getting people to look at them. Example: One kid who deemed it necessary to put his Bush/Cheney t-shirt on in long exaggerated movements as he began approaching the crowd. It's a little thing, but it was obvious.

Anyway, the cameras were rolling and the literature was flying. One man stood out in the middle of the road with a giant sign that said, "TAX THE RICH" Back and forth, chanting, hooting and hollering like it was a college basketball game.

But the real show happened inside...

So, I am walking up the steps a few minutes before 10 A.M. to head inside and get a good seat. I was supposed to meet Chris Bowers from MyDD, but at this point I gave up hope. As I am walking up, the level of noise grew and people swarmed around me.

Well, not me, Santorum was walking up the steps right beside me. Yes, I was about 2 feet away. Soon the press swarmed and I just put my cigarette out, and moved aside from the spectacle. I walked inside the lobby and here he came again, as if he was following me. He motioned to one of the security folks that he had to use the rest room; it was only because I was restrained by a smarter man than I that I didn't follow him in with the video camera.

So, I headed inside and the show started. About 3 minutes into the event, Chris Bowers called and had no idea where to find the place. I got up and met him outside and we came back in. It gave me another chance to get a few puffs in.

Oh, I forgot to note that some shmuck from the SSA used some analogy about an aircraft carrier, let's call it, "The FDR," he said. And the ship's Admiral got an order to turn starboard. The admiral got pissed and the punchline was something about the orders coming from a lighthouse. Stupid, I know. But the "FDR" crack kind of pissed a few people off.

Where was I? Yes, Bowers and I get back inside.

Right away, Santorum asks, "and do you know what happens in four years?" Immediately, someone responded, "Bush is out of office." The smirk on the face Richy Rick (R-VA) was priceless. I only wish I got that part on tape. Sorry. The place clapped, it was great.

About two minutes later, a young man stood up and started calling Rick Santorum out and talking about Pinochet, Chile, George Schultz and the Govenator. Once again, Rick had quite a smirk on his face. The man was escorted out of the room while screaming something about "death squads."

Yes, he was a LaRouchie.

No more than 2 minutes later, the guy RIGHT INFRONT OF ME stood up. Same thing, Pinochet, Chile, and death squads. This guy kept on going--then he got roughed up. I have the entire exchange on tape, and as I said above, I will post a link to it tomorrow.

The entertainment value was high, but as someone next to me noted, "Every Democrat is hanging their head right now." He was right, it did not reflect well on us.

So, the rest of the event was pretty, ummm, uneventful. With the exception of the last minute. That was when Chris Bowers got to ask a question. Earlier in the forum, Slick Rick (R-VA) said something to the effect of conversations with Democratic Senators that supported atleast partial privatization. Chris called him on it and asked him to name names.

Rick could not.

In fact, he said that there were not any Democratic Senators who supported the Bush-Santorum corporatization scheme, but there was "one member in the House, I think."

Umm, yea. Nice try Rick--Great question Chris.

After that, I had my first Philly Cheese Steak Sandwich, in Philly, and went home.

Tim

Posted at 09:02 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Activism, General, Netroots, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Monday, February 21, 2005

Bob Casey Jr. to decide this week...

It looks like Bob Casey Jr. will make an announcment this week on whether or not he intends to enter the Democratic primary field for the 2006 US Senate race in Pennsylvania.

Speaking of Casey, he's expected by week's end to make a decision whether or not he'll run against Santorum next year.

A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Casey with a 46-41 lead as a hypothetical candidate against Rick Santorum--those numbers are down from a DSCC poll that showed the former Governor's son with a 52-38 over the darling incumbent of the Republican right-wing.

I also happen to know that Zogby is conducting a poll on the race that features Casey Jr., Joe Hoeffel, and Barbara Hafer as potential Democratic candidates.

Posted at 03:15 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Saturday, February 19, 2005

Rick Santorum is already campaigning...

I hesitate to write about the PA Senate race, but we do focus on the 2005/2006 "swing races" and defeating Rick Santorum is going to be priority number one, period. That fact doesn't change whoever the nominee is.

I received an email the other day noting that Santorum is barnstorming across the state on a "town hall" speaking tour. He is attempting to accomplish two goals: 1.) Campaigning to dismantle social security. 2.) Running for re-election in 2006. His staff is also sending out emails to supporters, asking them to not only attend his events, but "bracket" them with letters to the editor, radio talk show calls, and building their AMWAY volunteer scam.

You can find the list of events in the extended entry and information on how to counter their "bracketing" efforts with one of our own.

The point is this. How long does the Democratic Party and DSCC think we can wait to start a full-scale campaign against Rick Santorum? Shouldn't we be building organization on the ground right now!? Democrats in PA have lost THIRTEEN straight full-term US Senate elections, and this attitude is in large part why it happens. I don't care who the nominee is, but in an era where Republicans run perpetual campaigns, we have to get out of the mindset that we can run for 12 of 24 months and expect to win on election day. It obviously isn't working.

Where is the leadership in PA organizing against Rick Santorum's "town halls?" The short answer is, they aren't. We are letting him run amuck across the state starting his re-election bid, unmolested. We wouldn't stand for this in 2006, so why 2005? So it's up to the grassroots, yet again.

If you can make it to one of them, great. If you are from PA and can write a letter to the editor, even better. I will be at Drexel University on February 22nd if you care to join me--let me know. Good chance I will be at the one in Easton PA (Bucks County) on the 25th as well.

To "bracket" Santorums appearances with letters to the editor, here is a great resource. It gives you all the tools you need to write a letter, and quickly send it to as many outlets as you want within your selected zip code.

Monday, February 21st
Location: Allegheny County
Duquesne University
Student Union - Duquesne Room
600 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 10:00am - 11:15am

Location: Cambria County
University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown
Heritage Hall Living Learning Center
450 Schoolhouse Road
Johnstown, PA
Time: 3:00pm - 4:30pm

Tuesday, February 22nd
Location: Philadelphia County
Drexel University, Behrakis Grand Hall
Creese Student Center
3210 Chestnut Street
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 10:00am - 11:30am

Location: Delaware County
Widener University
University Center - Webb Room
One University Place
14th Street, between Walnut and Melrose
Chester, PA
Time: 2:00pm - 3:30pm

Wednesday, February 23rd
Location: Erie County
National City Bank
Community Room
801 State Street
Erie, PA
Time: 9:30am - 10:45am

LPenn State University
HUB - Robeson Center
Room 117
State College, PA
Time: 2:00pm - 3:30pm

Thursday, February 24th
Location: Dauphin County
Messiah Village Senior Center Chapel
100 Mount Allen Drive
Mechanicsburg, PA
Time: 9:30am - 11:00am

Location: Lackawanna County
University of Scranton
Gunster Student Center - Eagen Auditorium
Scranton, PA
Time: 4:00pm - 5:15pm

Friday, February 25th
Location: Northampton County
Lafayette College
Colton Chapel
Easton, PA
Time: 10:30am - 11:30am

Location: Bucks County
Ann's Choice
10000 Ann's Choice
Warminster, PA
Time: 1:30pm - 3:00pm

Posted at 03:30 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Arlen Specter & Special Election Scenarios

By now, most of us have heard the unfortunate news that Arlen Specter has been diagnosed with Hodgkin's Disease and will undergo treatment with chemotherapy. I gotta say, this was one of the more inspirational quotes I have read in some time; from Specter:

"I have beaten a brain tumor, bypass surgery and many tough political opponents, and I'm going to beat this, too"

...and we hope he does. However, many have asked what happens should Specter resign, or tragically, worse? From the Pennsylvania Election Code:

§ 2776. Special elections for United States Senator; nominations.

Whenever a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator, said vacancy shall be filled for the unexpired term by the vote of the electors of the State at a special election to be held at the time of the next general or municipal election, occurring at least ninety (90) days after the happening of such vacancy, and it shall be the duty of the Governor to issue writs of election to the various county boards of elections and to the Secretary of the Commonwealth within ten (10) days after the happening of said vacancy.

There is more, but the long and the short of it is this:

If Specter has to leave inside of a 90 day window before the 2005 General Election in PA, then Governor Rendell will appoint a replacement, and there will be an election in November of 2006. In that case, there would be TWO United States Senate elections in that year.

If Specter has to leave office 91 days or more before the 2005 election in PA, the Governor would once again appoint a replacement until the November 2005 elections in PA. In that election, the Democrat appointed (presumably) would have to "defend" his/her seat against a candidate appointed by the Republican Party of Pennsylvania.

In both cases, 2005 & 2006 special elections, there is no primary for either party. The nominees for the seat are appointed by each of the state party aparatuses. Whoever were to win that election, would serve until Specter would have been up for re-election--2010.

Hope I got it right, and I hope it helps.

Posted at 11:50 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

PA Senate 2006

Disclaimer: I am working for another candidate in the PA Senate race, helping to get his online program off-the-ground.

Bob Casey Jr.'s hypothetical margin over Rick Santorum is slipping. Two weeks ago the DSCC released a poll that set the netroots ablaze; Pennsylvania's Auditor General Bob Casey led Rick Santorum 52-38 in a "what-if" battle of the titans. Today, that margin has tightened some. MoE +/- 2.8%

Casey: 46%
Santorum: 41%

Other candidates don't fare nearly as well as Casey.

Rick Santorum: 47%
Barbara Hafer: 39%

Rick Santorum: 50%
Joe Hoeffel: 34%

Because of my work situation, I don't want to talk to much about the race specifically--not on SSP. It's just out of respect for you and David for letting me write here.

And no, my candidate is none of these 3; we have an even longer way to go.

Posted at 09:28 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District

Great piece by Steven Porter's 2004 campaign manager, Pete Zeigler, on the 3rd CD of Pennsylvania. Porter (D) challenged incumbent Phil English (R) and received 40% of the vote despite getting outspent 5-1. Pete gave me permission to link the piece on SSP as well -- Tim

Over the past two months, there has been much debate over how many House races the Dems should target, what criteria to use, how much support unwinnable races should get, etc. I want to give an example of where and why our current targeting is severely flawed, and why we must look more broadly at the races we give our support to.

I'm going to discuss the 3rd CD of Pennsylvania. It covers Northwestern PA; all of Erie County, and parts of six other counties. It extends from the New York border and Lake Erie to the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh. It has a slight Democratic registration edge, Dem performance of approx 48%, and a combination of urban, suburban and rural voters. The major cities in the district have been hit very hard by free trade; Erie has seen thousands of jobs outsourced, the Shenango Valley's steel industry has been hard hit, Butler has lost multiple large employers, and Meadville, once the nation's tool-and-die capital, has seen the industry suffer greatly at the hands of cheaper foreign competition.

The current incumbent is Phil English (R). Despite this economic hardship in his district, and his full-throated support of free trade, he hasn't faced a party-supported challenge since 1996. The reasons for this defy logic.

English was initially elected in 1994 with less than fifty percent of the vote, against a strong challenge by Bill Leavens. In a normal year, English would have been defeated; however, 1994 was anything but normal. The DCCC immediately placed English on the top of its target list. The GOP immediately gave him a seat on Ways and Means to protect him.

In 1996, Erie lawyer Ron DiNicola steeped up to face him. This race saw outside money from a large number of interest groups pour into the Erie market; the WSJ even covered the race as an example of the "soft money" problems prevalent at the time. On election night, DiNicola was thought to be the winner, until late returns from GOP-dominated Butler County gave an approx. 2,500 vote victory to English.

So far so good. We have an incumbent on the run with every sign of vulnerability. So of course, in 1998, the Democratic Party, both locally and nationally, basically decides to sit the race out. A Mercer County school administrator, Larry Klemens, won the nomination, and received absolutely no party support. In their defense, he was a weak candidate, but if I were the DCCC, there is no way I'd have permitted there to be a weak candidate in the race, without a miracle upset in the primary. Klemens raised $30,000 (not a typo), and lost 63 to 37. All of a sudden, a seat that should be competitive looks less so.

Now of course, our party has a very short memory. In one cycle, the race went from top priority to unwinnable in the perception of DC. In 2000, we ran a former Republican doctor who got beat 61-39. Redistricting helped English slightly, but not enough to eliminate the Dem registration edge. So in 2002, the Dems don't even run a candidate. the Green candidate against him gets 22% of the vote, a number deflated by the massive undercount in Erie and Sharon, caused by people pulling the Dem party lever (yes, we still have the party option for voting in PA). In 2004, a good man, Steven Porter, made the race. Despite getting outspent 6 to 1, having zero name ID prior to the campaign, no national support, and being subject to a ridiculously vicious negative campaign (he was falsely accused of supporting forced sterilization and banning hunting, among other lies), he managed 40% of the vote against English.

Now, is Phil English some ridiculously popular figure? By no means. He is the exact opposite of telegenic, not very personable, and stories of him mistreating constituents abound. He is an able fundraiser, but he is not a candidate who generates a groundswell of support from the GOP base, a la Santorum on their side. He tries to portray himself as a moderate, in a part of PA where the GOP base is Red-State conservative. He is not loved, not even really liked by most of the GOP infrastructure in the district. He should be the definition of a weak incumbent.

If the DCCC does not engineer a strong challenge here in 2006, especially as he made a 6-term pledge (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 3-30-95), there are serious issues in their targeting criteria. But I am not advocating for just this race. There are probably a number of CDs nationwide where, if we took a look at the factors, much more attention is deserved, and the DCCC has to take a run at them. As English's example shows, taking one cycle off is too many.

The DCCC has to be able to find a minimum of 60 open-seat/weak incumbent districts every cycle and put forward a good faith effort towards:

1. Candidate recruitment
2. organizational support
3. dollars.

When the DCCC fails, they fail us. We should take action and make our voices heard to make sure it does not continue.

Also, if you got this far, I'm interested to hear about other districts, kinda off the radar screen, where new emphasis is warranted.

Posted at 12:31 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Sunday, December 05, 2004

US Senate 2006: Pennsylvania - A First Look

A first at the 2006 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race.  Hopefully this post will provide the initial broad overview needed to continue the discussion in-depth down the road.  If you know of any other potential candidates (on either side) please indicate in comments and we can add information as we compile it together.

The Antagonist: Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum

He was initially elected in 1994, defeating incumbent Democrat Harris Wofford.  Santorum won his last Senate election bid in 2000 against Democrat Ron Klink with an uninspiring 52% of the vote.  Because of that close election, a history of bigoted remarks on homosexuality, questionable ethics, and the fact that Senator Kerry carried the Keystone State, Progressive Democrats have a big bulls eye painted on Santorum's back for 2006.

One such comment on April 7, 2003 put homosexuality in the same class as pedophilia, incest, and zoophilia -- all of which threaten society and the family according to Santorum.

Santorum found himself in more trouble earlier this year when it was discovered that the Penn Hills School District has paid over $100,000 dollars for his children to attend an on-line charter school.  Some school board members have since decided to call for a refund.

Looking for a "definition" of the word "santorum" on a site that doesn't pull any punches? Click HERE.

Potential Protagonists:

Barbara Hafer:

The current Treasurer of the great state of Pennsylvania and former Republican that switched to the Democratic Party in 2003 (which tells you much of what you need to know).  She is widely seen as the likely candidate against Santorum in the 2006 Senate Election.  Her official biography can be read HERE. 

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review gives Hafer the early nod as the Democratic nominee.

Mentioned as Santorum's most likely challenger is Republican-turned-Democrat outgoing state Treasurer Barbara Hafer.

Hafer lost in overwhelming fashion to Bob Casey Sr. in the Pennsylvania Gubernatorial race in 1990.  Which provides a great segue...

Bob Casey Jr.

The son of former Pennsylvania Governor, Bob Casey Sr.  Casey was just elected to serve as the treasurer of Pennsylvania, taking over for the above mentioned Barbara Hafer.  He received more votes than any candidate, or any race in the entire state. Prior to taking over as treasurer, he served as the Auditor General for the state.

Casey is another Democrat you might have to hold your nose for while pulling the lever.  He is an anti-choice Democrat with a decidedly moderate tilt.  His biography can be read HERE.

In 2002, he lost in the Gubernatorial primary to Ed Rendell, who went on to win in the General Election.  Conventional wisdom is that Casey will not run for the United States Senate in 2006, despite the potential attractiveness of his candidacy and last name, which is widely revered in Pennsylvania.

From the Times Herald:

Some Democrats wistfully mentioned the name of Robert P. Casey Jr., the state's two-term auditor general and the late governor's son who last month garnered a state record of 3.3 million votes to succeed Hafer as treasurer. Casey has not publicly expressed interest in the office and, for the time being, is concentrating on his work as auditor general and his transition to treasurer, an aide said Saturday.

Joe Hoeffel

Ran a much more successful race than most anticipated in 2004 against Arlen Specter for United States Senate.  He received 42% of the vote to Specter's 53%.  Prior to his bid for United States Senate, Hoeffel was the Congressman for PA-13. 

Just yesterday Pennsylvania Democrats held a rally with much of the attention focusing on who will attempt to take out Santorum in 2006.  Hoeffel had this to say about his intentions on being that candidate.

After his speech, Hoeffel, D-13th Dist., said he would sort out his future early next year. Still, he said he felt his campaign against Specter had laid a foundation, such as wider name recognition and a list of donors and volunteers, that could prove useful in another Senate campaign.

Chuck Pennacchio:

I bring him up because he is the one Democratic candidate we know is running for absolute sure in the primary.  Also, the potential parallels to Senator Wellstone are unavoidable.

Pennacchio is the History Program Director at the University of the Arts in Pennsylvania.  He even has his own Senate website up and running.  At the very least, he might be the most Progressive of the candidates in the mix, and has every intention of calling upon the grass & netroots to help deliver him a long-shot victory.

I am running because I know how to fight and win tough elections and because I believe Democrats cannot afford to run the same kind of campaign that has led to defeat in all but one U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania since 1962. Im running because I believe we can use the power of the Internet to help build a new kind of campaign that will elect a candidate who is not a career politician and is free from special interest politics as usual.

I have spoken with Chuck via email; he has already started with executive committee meetings and building his initial base of supporters.  On a personal note, I wish him well.  I am not sure anyone would call him the favorite, but he is fighting the good fight.

Kathleen McGinty:

Mr. Liberal, Stepehn Yellin, added another option on Daily Kos and his own blog, The Yellin Report (always a great read -- highly recommended)

Rather, keep an eye on Kathleen A. McGinty. Who? McGinty served as Bill Clinton's Chairwoman on Environmental Policy, and as Deputy Director of the EPA from 1998-2001. She currently serves as Governor Ed Rendell's EPA Director, where she has been highly acclaimed for her work in bringing together economic growth with environmental protection in the Keystone State. McGinty has extensive financial and political connections-she was a top counselor to Al Gore's 2000 campaign and a senior advisor on the 2000 Democratic Platform (which had an excellent environmental plank, thanks to her). Pennsylvania Democrats are very excited about her (likely) candidacy, and I wouldn't be suprised if she is the Democratic nominee against Santorum.

The rest of the field:

As mentioned in previous comments at Swing State Project:

Allen Kukovic: PA State Senator
Tim Holden: United States Congressman
Don Onorato: An Allegheny County Executive
Chris Matthews: Host of Hardball on MSNBC

Posted at 05:59 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (14) | Technorati

Monday, November 01, 2004

Sunday on the Campaign Trail with Ginny

This week, I had the time of my activist life working with/witnessing the Ginny Schrader campaign in action. It was a grassroots, citizen-based campaign the likes of which I have never seen before in my life. Ginny herself is a remarkable, fantastic person. If John Kerry wins tomorrow, I will still be depressed if Ginny Schrader loses. She is exactly the sort of person we need in Congress, the sort of person everyone says they want in Congress. She is the American Dream in the flesh.

Here are just some of the things I learned about Ginny's campaign during my two days:

�Ģ No staff member has been paid in about a month. Nearly all of the money they raised went directly to campaign related activities, even though they raised more than $400K over the past three months. In addition to funding the final mailing, our final few contributions probably meant that the staffers would not go home completely empty-handed.

�Ģ Ginny's campaign might be the first Congressional campaign in history to raise the majority of its money online. Ginny received the majority of her money form blogs, MoveOn, DFA and direct online contributions.

�Ģ Over the final week, the campaign is fueled primarily by several hundred volunteers, most from in-state who just walked into either the campaign office or one of the five Democratic coordinated campaign offices in Bucks county.

�Ģ Apart from organizations such as ACT, MoveOn labor and environmental groups, there are nearly 1,000 volunteers walking Bucks county in the coordinated Democratic campaign this week. Bucks has just under 600,000 people.

�Ģ If Kerry reaches 55 or 56% in Bucks county, Ginny will win. I have seen the numbers in the county, both for the congressional and Presidential campaign, and this is very doable. Right now, Bush is stuck in the mid to low forties in the district.

On Sunday morning, before noon, I helped seventy-five volunteers stream into the office, fold literature, be quickly and orderly assigned walking lists, and sent into the field to work with the over 200 volunteers at one of four offices of the Bucks County Democratic coordinated campaign.

Also on Sunday, starting at 7:30 am, well before Ginny spoke in a predominantly African-American church in the MontCo corridor of the PA-08, an RV covered with Ginny signs, called the "Ginny mobile" was already touring the streets. Playing music and with former Congressman Mike Forbes as MC, Ginny would jump out of the RV every so often to shake hands with enthusiastic supporters. I was frequently aboard the RV, and being there gave me a feeling of utter confidence and excitement about the campaign.

I saw Ginny walk tables in a diner with Senator Bill Bradley, who I had the honor of meeting and chatting with for a couple minutes (we actually talked about, of all things, Chris Mathews). I shared a free loaf of bread with the staffers, Ernestine Bradley (Bill's wife), George Schrader (Ginny's husband) and Ginny's two young granddaughters, who came to the diner for the event.

I saw Senator Bradley, usually reserved, immediately perk up and give the most intelligent, thoughtful response to any question the second he was asked. He was remarkable--the political equivalent of what my father said Jim Brown was like as a football player (Brown walked back to the huddle as slowly as possible to conserve energy, but he would explode whenever he was handed the ball).

I saw staffers, most of whom were younger than myself, act with incredible professionalism and dedication even as they casually chatted with me about blogging, Senate campaigns and swing states. I did not keep an exact count, but I think the staff thanked me more than one hundred times for the help the netroots had given to the campaign.

I saw a rally of two hundred volunteers greet us when we arrived at the one of the coordinated campaign offices, cheering like mad as Ginny, Senator Bradley and everyone else stepped out of the RV. I saw Ginny and Bill give excellent speeches, and then I saw all two hundred volunteers return to canvassing only a few minutes later.

In the midst of a campaign fueled almost entirely by small donations averaging $40 and hundreds of volunteer activists, I saw NRCC TV ads calling Ginny Schrader and Lois Murphy terrorists who supported the rape of young girls. Now you tell me, how am I supposed to have any respect for Republicans at all after seeing that? It was the face of pure hatred scowling at a group of active citizens filled with hope. The NRCC is running this ad nationally to attack every Democrat in a close election--how can you have any respect for Republicans at all after this attack?

In short, I saw politics the way it should be run: a fully functional grassroots campaign supported by the larger party. I also saw it up against the definition of how politics should not be run: an evil smear campaign used in an attempt to perpetuate a radical agenda. A loss here would be a profound defeat for American politics. Then again, that Ginny is close is already a huge victory. This is what the blogosphere has wrought.

Posted at 10:54 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Get Out the Vote in Pittsburgh - It's Your Turn!

GET OUT THE VOTE IN PITTSBURGH!

We have 24 hours left. And we need your help NOW!

I've been working down here in Pittsburgh at the Steamfitters Hall with America Votes since Saturday. It has been a good experience, but we have been woefully short on the volunteers we need to get out the vote in the Burg. That means that we need folks within driving distance of Pittsburgh who aren't already committed to getting out the vote to come on down.

Are you supposed to work? Call in sick.

College classes? Call in sick.

Doctor's appointment? Call in sick.

This is the most important election in our lifetime. Directions and more info below the fold.

Directions
Use this Mapquest link, enter your address, and create directions.
Mapquest Link to the Steamfitters Hall
Note: If you are traveling north on Route 51, you want to turn left immediately after the BP gas station (also on the left).

Call me on my cell phone at (814) 229-4790 if you need to.

Background
The America Votes coalition, along with SEIU, Sierra Club, and ACT, is trying to help get Pennsylvanians to the polls. But our volunteer base has been inadequate, which means if you can feasibly drop everything on your desk, we need you now.

I've been here since Friday night. That night, we organized canvassing in the Sierra Club office which has a solid volunteer base. On Saturday, we moved on to the America Votes site but have not met our volunteer goals. We have been canvassing the South Side, Greenfield, and other neighborhoods. These are areas that have not turned out to vote in adequate proportions in prior years. Today, we have been canvassing with door hangers to remind folks when polls are open and where their polling place is. Believe it or not, people often do not know these things.

Tomorrow is crunch time. We are going to be canvassing the neighborhoods and reminding folks that we need them to vote. But we need more bodies if we are going to do this successfully.

If you are not within reach of Pittsburgh, please take the time to figure out where you can go help get out the vote. To do that, visit Act For Victory and click on your state. The contact numbers for offices in your state are listed on the left.

Posted at 05:07 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Technorati

Thursday, October 28, 2004

You Rock! (& Open Thread)

Wow - who knew? When we started our fundraising drive for Ginny Schrader, Chris and I weren't even sure we could help raise $1,000. Turns out that the readers of MyDD and the SSP have given an impressive $6630.14. Donations were given by 110 very generous people, far, far more than I thought would participate. Our final fundraising push netted almost two grand.

Excellent, excellent work, people! I know that the Schrader campaign is very appreciative, and this last pile of cash will most definitely help them get their final mailing out. So pat yourselves on the back - and I promise that there won't be any more fundraising nags from now until the election. (I will, of course, keep bugging you to volunteer for GOTV and poll watching.)

Now, it's all up to Ginny. Let's wish her the best as she brings this one home.

Please feel free to use this as an open thread.

Posted at 02:04 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (45) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Republican Scum Compare Ginny to Hezbollah

I wish I were making this up, but I am seething, just positively seething right now. The bottom-feeding scum at the NRCC have put out an unthinkably vile flyer which has the gall to link Ginny Schrader to Hezbollah, a group which is on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

Ginny, to her extraordinary credit, has refused to put up with this outrage. During a debate last night, she demanded that her opponent, Mike Fitzpatrick, apologize for the flyer. When Fitzpatrick refused, Ginny left the debate. Good for her!

So if this doesn't motivate you to give Ginny some turkee, I don't know what will. We just can't let an extremist like Fitzpatrick win, especially not when his support is coming from such wretched quarters.

We've raised over $700 since this final fundraising push began. I'd love to hit $1000 by midnight tomorrow so that Ginny can get out one last mailing to her district, to combat this garbage. The one bit of good news here is that if the NRCC is sending out such an atrocious piece of mail, it means they are beyond desperate right now and are running very, very scared. Let's put the final nail in their coffin.

Posted at 04:00 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (25) | Technorati

Friday, October 22, 2004

Swing the Bat for Ginny & Open Thread

You all know how the bat works - now it's Ginny's turn at the plate. Though we have already far exceeded our original goal - we've raised over $4800 - the Schrader campaign needs to send out one final mailing, and they need our help. We aren't setting any particular goal this time - we just want to contribute as much as we can by Wednesday at midnight. Let's do something of Red Sox-ian proportions here. Please give whatever you can.

Please feel free to use this as an open thread as well, as I'm travelling today.

Posted at 03:44 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (42) | Technorati

Saturday, October 16, 2004

Ginny Raises $350K in Third Quarter

Just a quick update on Ginny Schrader: She managed to raise an impressive $350,000 during the third quarter of this year - impressive because no one knew who she was until three weeks into the quarter, when Stephen Yellin wrote his now-famous post about the race. Ginny now has over a quarter million cash-on-hand to finish out the race. And the $4,000 we raised for her is a nifty chunk of that.

Her opponent, radical anti-choice extremist Mike Fitzpatrick, pulled down $567K and has $424K left. Don't be intimidated by these numbers. Fitzpatrick should have raised a lot more, given his high profile in the region. And he needs to out-raise Ginny, because the 8th CD leans Dem. What's more, ACT and all the other associated 527s have been working overtime in the Philly region - while Bush has pulled out of PA altogether. Our ground game is going to kick their ground game's ass.

And I have a very strong feeling that Ginny Schrader will be the first Representative in Congress to unofficially carry a (D-Blogosphere) tag, and proudly so.

Posted at 03:25 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Bush Pulling Out of PA

Word on the street is that the Bush campaign is ditching Pennsylvania. If so, this would be interesting - they'd be the first campaign to abandon a major, top-tier battleground. (I don't consider Missouri to fall into this category.) Combined pro-Bush expenditures show only one PA city (Harrisburg) on the top-ten list, and the Bush campaign itself actually has zero PA media markets on its list.

So, the battle will now be fought in Ohio and Florida. Good. What about Wisconsin and Iowa, you ask? Well, they start to matter a lot less with PA no longer in play. If we win FL, we will win even if we lose both WI and IA. OH is a bit dicier - we lose with OH going to Kerry but WI and IA going to Bush. We'd need to pick up a couple of small states to make up the difference. Nonetheless, it goes without saying that the fewer states we have to defend - especially the fewer big states - the better.

Posted at 05:13 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (15) | Technorati

Friday, October 08, 2004

Into the Final Stretch in Pennsylvania

I'm heading down to Pittsburgh tonight to watch the debate and do some canvassing tomorrow. This will be my second time out knocking on doors with the Sierra Club. This is kind of an issue for me as knocking on doors doesn't suit my personality. But its work that needs done. In any case, this is a good time to take into account the status of the election here in Pennsylvania.

Kerry has re-shifted into a slight lead in virtually all of the state polls:

ARG (Oct. 4-6): Kerry 48, Bush 46, MOE=4%
Survey USA (Oct. 3-5): Kerry 49, Bush 47, MOE=3.6%
WHYY (Oct. 1-4): Kerry 50, Bush 43, MOE=4%
Keystone (Sept. 30-Oct. 4): Kerry 49, Bush 43, MOE=4%
Rasmussen (Sept. 25 - Oct. 1): Kerry 47, Bush 47, MOE=4%

This is all good stuff. And there is also the voter registration news that Fester posted about a week back. There was another article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporting 100,000 new registations in Pennsylvania. And now of course is the key - getting these people out to vote. This may in fact be the hardest part. As the Post-Gazette noted in a subsequent editorial:

"In any case, all of this registration is pointless if new voters don't go to the polls on Nov. 2 or vote absentee in advance. It is one thing to sign up to vote, but the job's not done -- the sacred democratic transaction is not completed -- until a person makes a choice on Election Day."

Posted at 02:07 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (12) | Technorati

Thursday, September 30, 2004

Guest Poster: Ginny Schrader

[Following up on our earlier guest post from Jeff Seemann, we now have one from none other than Ginny Schrader - who, incidentally, was just adopted by Atrios yesterday.]

Posted by Ginny Schrader

This is my first time blogging, so here we go! I wanted to write personally to say thank you for all the help you���ve given me so far and I look forward to working with you until we win on November 2nd!

I���m running to be a real voice for real people on health care, the economy, education and putting our first responders first. My daughter is a teacher and my son is a police officer - and I understand, and have lived through the struggles that everyday people go through. That is why I want to go to Washington, so the people of my district have real representation.

This campaign is the perfect example of how you are helping to change the future of politics. The blogosphere���s initial fundraising helped build the momentum our campaign is taking into the final stretch. Now our fundraising is going great, we are up on TV, and we have a top-notch organization already in the field.

From now until Election Day, I know you will continue to reinvent netroots activism. Refining these skills and bringing in new activists now will prove invaluable when we transition from campaigning to reforming.

So thanks again and I���ll keep in touch!

Ginny

P.S. We���ve had ads running on Swing State Project for some time now, and I���ve been honored by how many of you have clicked through to find out more information. Your interest, ideas and support have proven to me what we can accomplish when we work together to progress our country.

Posted at 12:21 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Oh Man, We Are SO Close!

$2,940.08 raised for Ginny Schrader. Just one more generous contribution of $60 will put us over the top, and you won't hear any more Ginny nags from me. (Except, of course, to schlep out to Bucks County and do GOTV.) I have to say, I was a bit nervous when we set our original goal of $2,000 - I just had no way of knowing if we could make it. But you guys (and MyDD readers - I'm sure there's a lot of overlap) have really come through.

As I've said before, Thursday - tomorrow - is the last day of the quarter. Though FEC reporting regulations don't require campaigns to post full reports until 15 days later, I have a feeling that any campaign that's done well (and perhaps even some that haven't) are going to want to trumpet their results as soon as possible. If Ginny posts good numbers - and I have a feeling she will - some big-name groups (perhaps EMILY's List?) may decide to take an interest at the last-minute. If that happens, we can definitely say that we had a hand in it. So let's hit that $3,000!

UPDATE: WE DID IT! WOOHOO! Someone chipped in that final $60 and we've crossed the $3,000 threshold! The Schrader campaign can go home that much richer, and I can quit buggin' you for donations. Pat yourselves on the back - you guys really came through here, for an incredibly deserving candidate.

Posted at 11:07 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (3) | Technorati

Allegheny County Voter Registration Analysis

The Post Gazette is reporting that through the middle of September, the Allegheny County elections division has received and registered approximately 40,000 new voters. Among these voters are 21,859 Democrats, 9,369 Republicans, and 9,265 indpedents. More registrations are expected in the next week as registration ends on Monday, Oct. 4. Democrats are out-registrering republicans 2.3:1 which is a rate that is higher than the current voter registration rates in the county. Now what does this mean?

2000 general election shows that Al Gore was able to win a large Democratic majority in the county with 56% of the vote. Bob Casey, a conservative Democrat, won the largest Democratic majority with ~62% of the vote. The state attorney general vote saw a slim majority (~52%) go to Republican Mike Fisher. As we moved down ballot we see Democrats pile up signficant majorities in two of the four area congressional seats. A narrow win for Democrat Mascara occurs in the South Hills and a large win for Republican Mellissa Hart in the North Hills and far eastern suburbs of the county. There is significant ticket splitting within these races, but the county overall went for Democratic candidates. Approximately 585,000 people turned out.

2001 off-year general elections saw the County go overwhelmingly Democratic with significantly lower turnout. The lowest winner for a county wide seat was Recorder of Deeds, Valerie McDonald at 60% of the vote. Turnout was a little more than 230,000 voters.

On turnout of roughly 400,000 voters, the county barely went for Gov. Rendall by 52% in 2002's general election. In significantly redrawn districts, Republicans swept up large majorities in two Congressional districts for Melissa Hart and Tim Murphy, while the Democrats won large in two others.
The 2003 local elections saw the Democratic party win significant majorities for all races. Dan Onoroto was the weakest finisher with ~58% of the vote, while the row officers all received at least 60% of the vote. Turnout was said to be heavy for an off-year election, but I can not find an exact number right now.

So what does this tell us about Allegheny County voting patterns? The hard core partisans and extremely dedicated voters show up no matter what, but they number roughly 230,000 people. These voters split 60-40% Democratic in this county. The less reliable voters are 150% larger as a bloc than the dedicated voters. They also tend to vote more conservatively than the extremely dedicated. Al Gore did well with 56% of the vote in the county in 2000, performing above his state average, but a conservative Democrat received the largest majority, and a Republican won the county for Attorney General.

These new registrations are the anti-definition of extremely dedicated voters. They are previously unattached to the electoral process, and some of them will not be coming out to vote in November no matter how impressive the ACT, ACORN and Pittsburgh VIE GOTV efforts are. However, these three groups have run a pretty impressive campaign already and I have to assume that they have some plans in place for effective GOTV efforts for Allegheny County. The new Democrats who have been registered by these groups voters have been targeted to be in Democratic favorable demographics, so I think that their loyalty will be fairly high when they make it to the polls. These efforts will most likely give John Kerry and other Democrats an additional 1%-2% margin in Allegheny County which will help ride out the large losses that Kerry will take in some of the state's centrally located counties.

Crossposted at Fester's Place

Posted at 10:07 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Daily Ginny Nag

From now until the end of the quarter on Sept. 30th - that's just three days - I'm going to post a daily nag for Ginny. If we hit our goal of $3,000 before then, though, I'll quit buggin' ya. As of this moment, we've raised over $2,500 for the Schrader campaign. That's more than even a single wealthy individual could give, and that's pretty spectacular for a pair of blogs that don't quite have DailyKos-level traffic.

Speaking of which, on October 2nd, ActBlue and Party2Win are teaming up to help organize Kos Dozen House Parties. Follow that link to host your own, or find out if there's a party in your area you can attend. It's a great way to support this excellent roster of candidates, including, of course, Ginny Schrader.

Posted at 02:30 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Monday, September 27, 2004

Operation Shame on You

I like this idea: Some folks have launched "Operation Shame on You," which is designed to target newspapers which endorsed Bush in 2000 to get them to change their minds for this year. The current target state is Pennsylvania. A number of papers there actually endorsed Clinton-Gore in 1996, so getting them to see the light via letters to the editor might actually be doable.

OSOY has previously targeted Ohio and Florida, but if you want to help out with those states, you certainly still can. This is something very easy to do - you don't even have to get out of your chair. I'm not sure how big of an effect these endorsements have, but I'm inclined to believe that they matter, particularly for undecided voters right near the end of the campaign. Let's put it another way: It can't hurt to have as many endorsements as you can muster.

Posted at 03:13 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Thursday, September 23, 2004

Ginny Update: We Did It!

Just a quick Ginny update: We're now at $1920! With just a couple more donations, we can hit our goal of $2000 today. Who's gonna step up to the plate?

As I was typing the above, a generous contributor put us over the top! We've exceeded our goal of $2000! But that's no reason to stop. Like the Dean bats of yore, you hit a target and then you keep on going. Can we raise another $1000 by the end of the quarter? I think we definitely can.

Posted at 03:49 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

It's Ginny Time

Here's my weekly nag to give to Ginny. We are incredibly close to our goal already - as of this afternoon, we had raised $1770 from 31 different donors. We are almost there! (And if you follow that link, you can keep track of the totals.)

As it happens, Markos has a post up today about how the abortion issue is playing out in Pennsylvania's 8th CD. Moderate Republicans (they still exist in voter form, if not as politicians) are very turned off by Mike Fitzpatrick's rabidly anti-choice views:

Talk to Ellen Faulkner about abortion rights and passion takes over. The Iraq war and stamping out terrorism are important, but the self-described moderate Republican says the issue of "choice" is not one to compromise.

So in November, Faulkner, 46, of Chalfont, will support Democrat Virginia "Ginny" Schrader over Republican Michael G. Fitzpatrick because of his antiabortion stance. She expects her Republican friends to follow suit.

Abortion, one of the nation's most explosive political and social debates, is emerging as a critical issue in a competitive Eighth Congressional District race in moderate-leaning Bucks County. The district also includes portions of Philadelphia and Montgomery Counties.

If you'll recall, this district is solidly pro-choice - Fitzpatrick's wignuttery just isn't going to play in Bucks County. Embarassed by his own positions on the topic, his campaign has even tried to steer the conversation away from reproductive issues.

The end of the quarter is September 30th, just a week away. This is the last reporting period of the election. Campaigns which can show strength going into the final five weeks will be the recipients of any remaining last-minute "big money." I'd love to see some white knights swoop in to help Schrader put the nails in Fitzpatrick's coffin in October. So let's hit our $2000 goal - the equivalent of one major donor - by the end of the month. Give today, in whatever amount you can.

P.S. A big thank-you to my mother for sending out a fundraising e-mail for Ginny to her personal network. She's the author of "Picking Your Battles" - the ad for her site is on the left-hand strip - so if you have kids (or are thinking about having some), go click on over to her in appreciation. You'll be glad you did - it's an excellent book. (And, of course, she's an excellent mom!)

Posted at 01:17 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Saturday, September 18, 2004

CO, MO, PA Poll Roundup

DemFromCT has new polls for Colorado, Missouri & Pennsylvania.

Posted at 05:05 PM in Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania | Comments (29) | Technorati

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll

I have veered away from intensive poll-watching recently, but I came upon this Rasmussen Poll and thought it was worth posting. It has Bush up by 1 in Pennsylvania. Personally, this is good news. Remember, absent extraordinary circumstances, right now should be Bush's peak. Also, Rasmussen tends to be kind to George. I think Kerry is in great position to retain PA. (Likely voters, August in parens.)

Kerry: 48 (49)
Bush: 49 (45)
Other/Undecided: 4 (6)
(MoE: ��5%)

Also, there is this: "Forty-two percent (42%) believe the country is heading in the right direction. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe we have gotten off on the wrong track." Inevitably, folks who believe we are heading in the wrong direction will vote for change.

Posted at 11:34 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (39) | Technorati

Sunday, September 12, 2004

What is Canvassing Like?

When it comes to get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations, nothing is more important than door-to-door canvassing. If you haven't done it yet but you're wondering what the experience is like, ebradlee10 has a good diary about spending the day canvassing the Philly burbs with ACT.

Posted at 11:18 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Saturday, September 11, 2004

Two More SUSA Polls (MO & PA)

There's no way I'm going to be able to keep up with all the polls. The prolific Survey USA makes things especially difficult for an obsessive poll-watcher like myself - they use an entirely automated system to collect their samples, so they can keep churning out polls as fast as their robo-dialers can make calls. They've released two more swing state polls today (in addition to several that cover non-swing states). Hopefully I'll get the numbers in order this time.

First up is Missouri (PDF) (likely voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 46 (47)
Bush: 48 (48)
Other/undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ��3.9%)

As in Ohio, Bush and Kerry do almost equally well among their respective bases (90%+ for both), and Bush leads among independents, 49-40.

Perhaps not surprisingly, 80% of Bush voters say they are voting "for" Bush, while only 19% say they are voting "against" Kerry. For Kerry, though, only 41% say they are voting for him, while 56% say they are voting against Bush. I wish SUSA included questions about favorability, because then these numbers would mean a lot more. If Bush's unfavorables are high, then this sort of split is nothing to be concerned about - it means the "anti" vote will come out in force.

SUSA's results also show a deadlocked Governor's race. In a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent Democrat Bob Holden actually lost his primary to challenger Claire McCaskill. McCaskill, though, went from a five-point margin against Republican Matt Blunt in August to a one-point margin this time around. We can definitely hold on to the Governor's mansion here. The Senate outlook, however, is fairly bleak.

Missouri is not a terribly likely pickup for us - I certainly think we have a better shot at (bigger) Ohio. And I don't see us taking MO but not OH. Nonetheless, this is a state in which we want to remain competitive, given the other important races here. And a final note: This poll was taken not long after the Republican convention, at a point when Bush should be riding highest. So the fact that things are still so close here is very good news for us.

And now, Pennsylvania (PDF) (likely voters, early August in parens):

Kerry: 49 (53)
Bush: 47 (41)
Other/undecided: 5 (7)
(MoE: ��3.8%)

Those trendlines sure are ugly, but a lot has happened since this poll was taken - not least of all the Swift Boat Liars and the Republican convention (which appear to have had a greater affect here than in MO). At the same time, I don't think any reasonable person could have expected Kerry to win PA by 12 points, so that early August poll strikes me as something of an outlier - it was taken right after the DNC.

Speaking of the Swift Vets, SUSA shows those with a military/veteran background preferring Bush 50-46 in this poll. The previous poll had Kerry winning this group 52-42. I'd caution against reading too much into this particular observation, though, for two reasons: First, again, the August poll seems too pro-Kerry to me, and second, for polling sub-groups, margins of error can skyrocket because you're likely dealing with tiny numbers of people.

As above, both candidates do just about equally well with their base (86% for Bush, 82% for Kerry). I bring this up again partly because SUSA actually provides this info, but also because a lot of polls seem to show Bush doing significantly better with Republicans than Kerry does with Democrats (on the order of 15 points or so). At least we aren't seeing evidence of that here.

One side note: The Senate results again are quite disappointing here - SUSA has Hoeffel back 18 points. Like many other people, I wonder how things might have been different had Arlen Specter lost his primary.

Posted at 12:21 AM in Missouri, Pennsylvania | Comments (5) | Technorati

Thursday, September 09, 2004

Show Ginny Schrader Some Love!

As Chris's detailed post below demonstrates, PA's newly open 8th Congressional District is a great pickup opportunity for us. That's why MyDD & the Swing State Project are officially "adopting" Ginny Schrader, the Democratic challenger about whom you've already heard a great deal.

We've already raised almost $900 through ActBlue. Our goal is to ultimately raise $2000 for Ginny. So you can expect fundraising nags from us, as well as up-close campaign coverage from Chris.

Schrader was also selected as a member of the DKos Dozen today, so you know she's for real. The blogosphere helped put this race on the map when the incumbent decided not to seek re-election - and we can help put Ginny in Congress if we do our part now. So give today - small contributions add up quickly!

P.S. As you may have noticed, I've added a direct contribution button to the Schrader campaign in the right-hand column. That goes straight to our ActBlue page - very handy! You can also punch an amount into the box just below in this post to make a contribution:

UPDATE: I just tossed in my $25.01 via ActBlue - now it's your turn.

Posted at 03:56 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Ginny Schrader for Congress, PA-08

Here are the trial heat, benchmark and vulnerability poll results from PA-08, where Ginny Schrader is taking on Michael Fitzpatrick in an open, Republican-held seat. All of this information comes to me through internal polls from Ginny Schrader's campaign, and thus there is no link. For starters, here are some outside factors:

Presidential Race
Kerry: 48
Bush: 44

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat: 42
Republican: 41

The Republican-led Congress receives a 52% negative job rating.

Right now, Fitzpatrick leads in name recognition, which not surprisingly means that he leads in the trial heat:

While Republican Mike Fitzpatrick has higher name identification than Democrat Ginny Schrader, neither is known to a majority of voters. Fitzpatrick currently leads by a 46% to 30% margin with nearly one-quarter (24%) of all voters still undecided. Democrats have a natural advantage with undecided voters on the generic ballot by a 37% to 30% margin.

With that level of unknowns, clearly this is a highly volatile race, and Ginny's chances to rise are excellent. Further, here is the main benchmark result, which reveals Ginny's strength:

When voters are read the following biographical paragraph on the two candidates, Ginny Schrader takes a 48% to 45% lead over Mike Fitzpatrick.

Here are the bios:

Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Middletown, is a Bucks County Commissioner and a lawyer. Fitzpatrick says that as a County Commissioner, he has worked to prevent domestic violence, secure flood relief for local families. and pass the county's land-conservation program. In Congress, he says he will fight for better jobs and economic development, and more help for local governments to preserve open space.

Ginny Schrader, a Democrat from Lower Makefield, is a former Vice President of a financial services company. Schrader says she understands the needs of working families because she has lived in their shoes. She was a single mother who went to college at night, and struggled to make ends meet before becoming a successful businesswoman. In Congress, she says she will fight to control healthcare costs, improve education, and create new jobs

Fitzpatrick's main vulnerability comes from his extreme anti-choice stance:

A majority (54%) of 8th district voters are pro-choice, with an additional 28% favoring exceptions like rape, incest and the life of the mother. Republican Mike Fitzpatrick is pro-life and opposes the right of a woman to have an abortion even in the case of rape and incest. Two-thirds of pro-choice voters say they would either "definitely" vote against (30%) or "probably" vote against a pro-life candidate. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters say they would be less likely to vote for Fitzpatrick when they hear about his extreme positions on abortion, including 43% of Fitzpatrick's current supporters.

So the situation here is really quite simple. If Ginny can raise her name recognition, get her message out and make Fitzpatrick's extreme anti-choice position clear, then she will win and Democrats will pick up a seat in the House. If her name recognition remains low, then she will probably lose the district. Thus, raising her name recognition and getting her message out are the keys to victory. We can do this through volunteering, publicity, and, of course, through donations.

We are asking readers of MyDD and the Swing State Project to make donating to Ginny Schrader their number one Congressional donation priority. You can make donations either through the ActBlue page we have set up for Ginny (where we've already raised over $900).

We can make a difference in this race, a difference between picking up a seat for a real progressive or allowing it to backslide toward an archconservative. We helped bring this race to the fore - let's help close the deal as well. Our small donations of $25-$50 make a huge difference. Donate today.

Posted at 03:05 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Four Gallup Polls (MO, OH, PA & WA)

Gallup released four new polls today, for Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Washington. All were taken after the convention, and all pushed leaners. (The questioning: "If undecided: 'As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?'") That means that a certain amount of Bush's support has to be quite soft. Polling firms like to do this because it produces "cleaner" data, but I actually think it makes the picture look murkier.

Missouri first (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 53
Other/Undecided: 5
(MoE: ��4%)

Gallup also polled LVs here, who favored Bush by a 55-41 margin. In mid-July, Gallup had the race tied at 48-48 among LVs. The fact is, though, we know that Bush will not triple or quadruple his 2000 margin in Missouri this time around.

And Ohio (registered voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 47 (52)
Bush: 48 (42)
Other/Undecided: 5 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

Similarly here, we knew that Kerry wasn't going to win Ohio by ten points, so it's hardly surprising to see this race tighten up. What is very intesting is how skewed the LV numbers are for OH. Gallup has Bush up 52-44 among LVs, but as you can see, just one point up among RVs. And again, Bush isn't going to win OH by eight points (no matter what Zogby might say), so this just seems like pretty conclusive proof that Gallup's likely voter models skew absurdly Republican.

On to Pennsylvania (registered voters, late August in parens):

Kerry: 47 (49)
Bush: 47 (44)
Other/Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

Unlike OH, the LVs don't show a big jump for Bush - he's up 48-47. However, back in August, the LVs had Bush doing four points better and Kerry doing two points worse than the RV horserace that month (which was, as indicated above, 49-44 Kerry).

And finally Washington (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 51
Bush: 43
Other/Undecided: 6
(MoE: ��4%)

The other/undecided category includes two points for Nader. (The other polls didn't ask about him.) For once, LVs don't show a big difference: 52-44 Kerry.

Detailed poll results are available here.

Posted at 12:52 PM in Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 01, 2004

Hoeffel in Trouble?

I have long believed that Joe Hoeffel is a pretty decent candidate who needed quite a few things to go right in order to win the Senate seat that is currently held by Arlen Specter. The best and easiest route would have been for reactionary conservative Pat Toomey to have won the GOP primary, but that is not the case.

The next best would have been for a nationwide meltdown of the Republican Party as the grown-ups stepped in to save the party from Bush - how much longer can they hold the coalition of conservatives, isolationists, imperialists, nationalists, Christian fundamentalist and corporate executives together given their internal contradictions? - but that does not look as though it has happened or ever will. So given these two past (non-)events, Hoeffel needed to get his name ID up into the high 70's or 80s and run with a unified party behind him.

Well the AFL-CIO of Pennsylvania has just decided to endorse Specter for the Senate race. An AFL-CIO endorsement does not neccessarily spell doom for the non-endorsed candidate (see Gov. Rendell), but it will deny Hoeffel a significant amount of organizational muscle and foot labor which will be needed for GOTV. Hoeffel's best chance is to pray that ACT and other 527 GOTV organizations combined with the DNC/Kerry Campaign do an extraordinary job of mobilizing the marginally likely Democratic voter as well as some unlikely voters. I would recommend that the DSSC look to funnel resources to other races at this time.

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 09:08 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Monday, August 30, 2004

Pennsylvania Shifts

As a follow-up to my prior post, I thought I'd start a thread dedicated to the other news coming out of Pennsylvania. The new Gallup Poll (already being discussed in the Open Thread) shows a tie in Pennsylvania:

(Aug 23-26)
Kerry/Edwards 47
Bush/Cheney 47

These "likely voters" numbers are a bit of a swing where Kerry was soundly ahead of Bush not so long ago. Interestingly, if you add Nader and consider "Registered Voters" the numbers look like this.

(Aug 23-26)
Kerry/Edwards 49
Bush/Cheney 43
Nader 3

So much of these numbers are obviously in the "Likely Voter" calculations. Lets hope those can be upset. But these latter numbers are interesting given the newest information that Nader won't be on the ballot in Pennsylvania. I am not one who thinks Nader will affect Pennsylvania whether he is on the ballot or not. This makes that debate irrelevant.

Posted at 05:54 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (9) | Technorati

From the Streets of New York City to Main Street, USA

Of course, one of the most fundamental aspects of winning a Presidential Election is the Get out the Vote effort. To that end, MoveOn PAC has put together some pretty cool ads and millions of dollars are being collected by a whole variety of 527s towards this effort. Pollsters, for their part, are doing their best to project who the "likely voters" are - which of course influences their polling numbers.

Much of what we can try and project regarding voter motivation is anecdotal. And one thing that certainly is evident on the left this year is the mass mobilization all across the country. Whatever you think the impact of New York City protests will be, there is no question that the demonstrations, characterized by the New York Times as "New York City's biggest in decades", represent more than just a simple anger but a mass mobilization that is an ongoing affair.

I happen to be intrigued by the mobilization that is occuring in Republican strongholds. This may not seem that important. After all, Bush will undoubtedly win in these areas. However, I believe these are threshold events. I do not recall having a Democratic option for state senate since I moved to Clarion County, Pennsylvania, in 1996. Not only do I have a 2004 Democratic State Senate Candidate in Kevan Yenerall but on Saturday the Clarion County Democrats opened the first county Democratic Party office in a long time.

Posted at 05:45 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Thursday, August 26, 2004

The Residential Advantage - Teresa Tours Western Pennsylvania

Some time ago, many score ago it seems, I blogged here about the advantages and disadvantages of having Teresa Heinz-Kerry on the ballot. There is an excellent piece in today's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette highlighting how Teresa is not only using here Pennsylvania connections as an advantage for Kerry on the stump, but she is actually using her marriage to the late Senator Heinz to Kerry's advantage as well. She also obviously using her identity as an outspoken women to relate to voters on women's health issues. This is making great use of her identity for Kerry's advantage. Here is a short glimpse of the article:

Teresa Heinz Kerry made a daylong swing through Western Pennsylvania yesterday, promoting her husband's proposals for health care while chatting with a panel at a Lawrence County women's shelter and then opening a presidential campaign headquarters in Beaver County for Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic nominee.

At one point, she invoked the name of her late husband, Republican Sen. John Heinz, whose extraordinary crossover appeal to Democrats made him the state's top vote-getter.

The visit preceded a Midwestern trip, where Heinz Kerry will campaign for her husband in Detroit.

"We as a society have not built great support systems," Heinz Kerry told a group gathered at the Crisis Shelter of Lawrence County during a noontime meeting in New Castle.

She joined a panel of women's health experts for a discussion.

Posted at 08:06 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (17) | Technorati

Saturday, August 21, 2004

Nader Dinged in Two Swing States

According to this AP piece, Nader has failed to get on the ballot in two swing states: Big-time MO and up-and-coming VA. (He also got dinged in IL and MD - sort of an Alan Keyes special.) The NYT map Chris posted a while back showed MO as a "likely" state for Nader.

Elsewhere, it looks like Nader is struggling in OR as well. His campaign says they have 20,000 sigs - they need over 15K valid ones, and the deadline is this Tuesday. I say he has no chance.

Nader is vowing to fight on in a lot of these states, but he's stretched incredibly thin. His campaign says they are fighting adverse rulings in AZ, MI and TX. But not only that, the Dems are training big guns on him. In PA, for instance, a team of ten attorneys from Pittsburgh-based Reed Smith - the thirty-third biggest law firm in America - is working pro bono to keep Nader off the ballot. I don't think Ralph is going to get on the ballot in too many more states.

Posted at 08:24 PM in Missouri, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia | Comments (2) | Technorati

Friday, August 13, 2004

A Schrader Campaign Scoop, Courtesy of Chris

Intrepid blogger & cattle caller Chris Bowers has taken yet another leap into the world of real reporting, and he has a pretty big scoop. If you'll recall, the entire staff of Rep. Rodney "Benedict Arnold" Alexander quit en masse last week after he switched over to the Republican Party. It turns out that Alexander's chief of staff, a fellow named Brian Smoot, will be coming over to the Schrader campaign. It's not every day that a seasoned Hill staffer becomes available for new work, so this is a pretty big coup for a fledgling campaign.

In related news, Ginny finally has an opponent - Bucks County Commissioner Mike Fitzpatrick. Kos has the details (cribbed from Congressional Quarterly). Though CQ seems to think that Fitzpatrick is strongly favored, it looks like the Republicans did us a big favor (as they often do): They nominated the one extremist who opposes abortion rights and stem-cell research. (Everyone else looking to run on the GOP side was pro-choice.) Whether in primaries or in behind-the-scenes deals, the GOP regularly puts forward their least electable, most right-wing guys.

Look at what happened in California in the 2002 governor's race: Moderate Dick Riordan, who could have easily beaten Gray Davis, lost in the primaries to the hard-right Bill Simon. Simon went on to get beaten by the sad sack Davis in the general. But just a year later, when the moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to leapfrog the primary process via the recall election, he beat Davis handily.

The lesson to me here is just blindingly obvious: You want a moderate candidate in a moderate district. I just don't see anti-abortion, anti-stem cell positions doing very well in suburbia. In fact, Fitzpatrick's campaign is already trying to deflect attention from these views. In other words, I think Schrader's in a stronger position than CQ makes her out to be, especially if the DCCC helps her with financing. Hey, maybe they can give her all the money Benedict Alexander is supposed to return to them! In the meantime, we can toss her some coin of our own.

P.S. Chris has also been covering the Hoeffel campaign, so we should be seeing more from him on that topic soon.

Posted at 06:53 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 10, 2004

Nader's Ballot Access Efforts in PA

I took some time last week going through signatures on the petitions submitted by Nader's ballot access team. I, along with a bunch of other volunteers, found plenty of errors, and we were wondering if the Democrats would file suit to challenge the petitions. Well they are, and the odds look pretty good to knock Nader off the ballot.

The Post Gazette is reporting that Nader's coordinators submitted, 45,000 signatures, less than the 50,000 which I had thought. The private verification effort believes that only 10,000 signatures are without dispute. Nader needs slightly more than 25,000 signatures in order to qualify, and if 35,000 signatures are in dispute, he needs to win 45% of the disputed signatures in order to qualify. This could take a while, and I think he'll make it by the skin of his teeth because I know that quite a few signatures violate the letter of the law, but were honestly and reasonably signed by people with their full knowledge of their actions. It will depend on the judge if Nader makes it, and if the judge goes for intent and spirit of the law, Nader will be on the ballot in November.

This AP article via the Pittsburgh Tribune Review seems to make the case a slam dunk as it says:

Pittsburgh lawyer Efrem M. Grail, who challenged Nader's petitions on behalf of seven western Pennsylvania voters, said in his filing that more than 30,000 signatures were invalid because the signers were not registered voters.

If that is the case, there is no way for Nader to make the ballot. This would leave roughly 17,000 signatures of registered voters of whom some percentage will have other problems. I am interpreting this story as a little too much good news, and I believe the quote may refer to 30,000 challengable signatures for all causes, including non-registered voters signing their names.

Posted at 03:21 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (29) | Technorati

Monday, August 09, 2004

Is Bush Shooting Himself in the Foot in Appalachia?

This NYT story about coal mining regulations has me perplexed. On the one hand, it says that Bush wooed the mining vote in West Virginia in 2000 by promising to roll back environmental restrictions - ie, the kinds of regulations which allegedly were reducing the number of available mining jobs. WV, ordinarily a solid Democratic state, went for Bush - though Al Gore's gun stance (and some speculate, Joe Lieberman's religion) had something to do with it as well.

But now it seems, at the behest of the coal companies, Bushco is determined to roll back mining safety regulations, which are a horse of a much blacker color. The miners themselves - through their unions - are apparently quite opposed to such rollbacks. These anti-regulations, for instance, would permit exposure to even higher levels of coal dust - which is responsible for the dreaded black lung disease - even while OSHA itself is arguing for lower levels.

I can understand why the Bushies want to please their corporate benefactors in the coal industry. But coal executives don't cast too many votes. In order to once again carry a place like WV, Bush will need the rank-and-file - and if he's telling these works to literally eat his dust, I can't see how that's gonna help. And it seems to me that this is now the second time Bush has struck out when trying to win votes by helping a dying smokestack industry in Appalachia - remember steel tariffs, anyone? This news just put OH, PA and WV that much further out of Bush's grasp.

P.S. Environmental regulations - the kind promulgated by, say, the EPA or OSHA - are a key reason why it's so important to have a Democratic president. These sorts of rules can often be strengthened simply by a president's (or agency administrator's) directive, without getting stymed by lobbyists in Congress. And the regulations will get enforced by the president's appointees, who, without a doubt, will be much more vigilant in a Kerry administration than in a Bush administration.

Posted at 12:59 AM in Economy, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia | Comments (28) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

SUSA Polls Suggest a Swing State Bounce for Kerry

Hmm... is there evidence of a swing state bounce for Kerry? Check out the polls below & decide for yourselves.

A huge jump for Kerry in Pennsylvania (PDF, likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 53 (47)
Bush: 41 (46)
Other/Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ��3.7%)

This lead is clearly well outside the MoE. Part of it surely must be because the June sample was split equally between Dems and Republicans (41% apiece), while the August poll was 46% Dem and just 34% GOP. Ruy Teixeira has ably explained why it doesn't make sense to weight polls by party ID - there are a lot of reasons not to do so. (For example, one reason why more Dems might be responding is that there is simply a surge in people identifying as Democrats.) I'd be very curious to see if this trend holds in SUSA's next PA poll.

Meanwhile, Arlen Specter saw a big drop in his support, but challenger Joe Hoeffel seems unable to increase his poll numbers.

Another big jump - and a surprisingly close race - in Tennessee (PDF, likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 46 (41)
Bush: 48 (51)
Other/Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ��4.2%)

Like many other observers, I've mostly written off TN for this election - and for the future - on the presidential level. (Don't get me wrong, though: I definitely think this is a state where we can compete strongly on the congressional level.) Al Gore's residual Tennessee background definitely kept the state closer than it otherwise would have been in 2000, so a poll result like this is certainly a surprise. So I'm still going to follow the "This is just one poll" rule - if you don't, you wind up standing on the ledge of a building because of one wacky New Jersey or California survey which shows George Bush one point behind.

And lastly, good old Washington State, where it's all over but the voting (PDF, likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 51 (49)
Bush: 43 (44)
Other/Undecided: 5 (7)
(MoE: ��4.2%)

I've grown pretty convinced that Bush has no shot in WA. It definitely has to be considered a second-tier swing state: If we win it, it doesn't mean we've won the whole thing, but if we've lost it, it almost certainly means we're hitting the Jack. I don't think WA is as hopeless for Bush as LA is for us, but it's approaching that territory.

It also appears that the Senate campaign of one-time giant-slayer Republican George Nethercutt is crashing and burning as well. SUSA shows him down eleven points. It's hard to prise apart cause and effect here, but Bush certainly isn't helping Nethercutt and vice-versa. Speaking of which, an internal poll conducted by the campaign of the incumbent, Sen. Patty Murray, showed Kerry ahead 49-41. (Available on Polling Report.)

Some general notes: SUSA only asks horserace questions, so no favorability ratings for any of these polls. Also, the low number of undecideds may have a lot to do with how SUSA words their questions: "If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for?" (Argh - as a grammar geek, it infuriates me that they say "who" and not "whom," especially since they manage to get the subjunctive "were" right.) Anyhow, I think that wording exerts as much pressure as possible, so it may mask the true number of undecideds. But given that undecideds are expected to break our way, this probably doesn't matter much.

Posted at 08:05 AM in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington | Comments (4) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

Nader on the PA ballot

I had previously stated that I thought it would be unlikely for Nader to get on the Pennsylvania ballot. I am most likely wrong about that prediction. Yesterday was the deadline for the Nader campaign to submit slightly more than 25,000 valid signatures. The Pittsburgh Post Gazette is reporting that the two Nader ballot access coordinators submitted a bit more than 50,000 signatures. Given that the Liberterian Party and the Constitution Party each submitted roughly 35,000 signatures (to account for the throw-outs), it is extremely likely that Nader will receive enough certified signatures to qualify.

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 02:57 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (8) | Technorati

Weekend Canvassing in Schrader's Back Yard with DFA & ACT

Democracy for America's Mercer County, NJ branch is teaming up with its counterpart in nearby Bucks County, PA and America Coming Together to target voters in Bucks, which is a suburban Philly-area county. They'll be carpooling into PA nearly every weekend from the end of summer until election day. This seems like a great way to reach out to a swing state, and I've heard pretty much only good things about ACT. I haven't yet heard about anyone's field experiences with DFA 2.0, but of course, Deaniacs have always had a strong ground presence.

Mercer County, btw, is the home of Trenton, the state capital. It's around an hour or so from NYC by car, and a little bit more than that via New Jersey Transit, which leaves from Penn Station & is pretty affordable. Of course, I don't know exactly where the group is meeting up, but if you want information, e-mail jmelli, the author of the DKos diary linked above.

UPDATE: D'oh! I can't believe I forgot the most important part (which Chris helpfully reminded me of): This is Ginny Schrader's home territory. And by the way, SSP readers have raised close to $900 for Ginny - let's try to make that $1,000 soon. But if you can't contribute with cash, contribute with your feet!

Posted at 12:13 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Monday, August 02, 2004

Right-Wing Spoiler to Enter PA Senate Race

Via Atrios, we learn that the Constitution Party appears set to offer up an ultra-right-wing challenger to Arlen Specter in PA's Senate race. In Pennsylvania's 1994 gubernatorial race, the Constitution Party candidate pulled a hefty 13%, again against another alleged "moderate" Republican, Tom Ridge, who is now the Homeland Security Secretary. (Ridge still wound up winning over the Dem, 45-40, but don't forget that 1994 was the year of the GOP wipeout.)

Even if this CP guy only winds up pulling a few percent, Joe Hoeffel's day just got a lot better.

Posted at 08:38 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Friday, July 30, 2004

Adopting Ginny Schrader

It's always great to see some bona fide original reporting in the blogosphere, which makes Chris's interview with Ginny Schrader posted below all the more interesting. Though she's been plugged across many blogs, including this one, I like Chris's suggestion that the SSP & MyDD officially "adopt" Schrader. So far, in fact, the SSP has already raised over $800 for Ginny on ActBlue. (And already it's the third most-successful list on ActBlue.)

So if Chris & Jerome over at MyDD are willing, let's make it official. (As long as Mr. Liberal doesn't mind.) I don't want to set any specific goals, but I think we can do well for her. As an aside, the combined daily traffic of our two blogs is close to 10,000 visitors a day, which would put us in the realm of the top twenty blogs. Whaddya say?

Posted at 09:57 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (3) | Technorati

Chris's Interview With Ginny Schrader

Photos Courtesy of Wendy Badman (photobywendy@hotmail.com).

On Tuesday, before the Kerry event in Philadelphia, I had the privilege of visiting Virginia Schrader in her home so that I could talk with her about her campaign. Although I forgot my tape recorder in her home after the interview, I went back and retrieved it on Wednesday. Several members of the DCCC were there, and Ginny informed me that for the next five weeks, with full-bore assistance from the DCCC, her campaign would be focused almost entirely on raising as much money as possible in order to put her in the strongest position possible. She also let me peek behind the curtain into their accounts to show me that the blogosphere had raised over $36,000 for her campaign. I would like to see our total rise to $50,000 as quickly as possible, so please donate today. Remember that early money is like yeast: it makes the dough rise.

Although it is not my decision to make alone, since DailyKos has already officially adopted eight congressional candidates, perhaps MyDD, combined with the Swing State Project, could fill the gap created by this incredible and unexpected opportunity and adopt Virginia Schrader for Congress in PA-08. Let me know what you think about this idea in the comments.

Schrader���s campaign also has a new and improved website that is adding new interactive content by the day, so be sure to check it out. Also, for those of you in the Philadelphia or Trenton areas, there is a Virginia Schrader Meetup that desperately needs members. Join today, and/or visit her website for more information on how to volunteer.

Typing up transcripts is very difficult.

Me: When did you first decide to run for Congress?

GS: November and December was the time period when I was trying to make the decision. I really thought this was a winnable race, even though it wasn���t going to be a profiled race, because it was an incumbent. The incumbent, Jim Greenwood, had originally been pretty much a moderate���in the terms that a Republican is a moderate���but in the last few years his voting record has been more and more and more in favor of the administration to the point where even though he is pro-choice, even though he is portrayed as a moderate, he is voting with the administration 88% of the time. So, we felt that if we could get that message out, then we could we could do something, do something big. This is an area that went very big for Clinton, went for Gore--

Me: Went for Rendell, over 60%--

GS: Went huge, huge for Rendell. So, they had added some Democratic areas in their gerrymandering into this district, so we felt those were mine. This was really a good opportunity. Anyway, those were all of the reasons why I decided to do it. I wanted to have a very serious campaign, I wanted to have a real race, really about the issues, about not having people roll over just because there is an incumbent, I think there is too much of a tendency to do that.

Me: Yes, absolutely. I agree.

GS: Other times, there are good candidates sometimes, and good candidates don���t have a snowball���s chance in hell because they are not being targeted, nobody is looking at them.

Me: When you say targeted, are you talking about the DCCC?

GS: I���m talking about any of the���there are more organizations than them who target people. I didn���t mean the Internet, because that is so brand new.

Me: Yes. Actually, on Dailykos, there is Lois Murphy in the sixth district�Ķ

GS: She is doing very well. Probably because started to notice her race even before mine.

Me: Why do you think that other people, other groups, didn���t feel that this was a district they should target?

GS: Because if you look at what has been written about Greenwood, that he was a moderate, even though he was a Republican he was a moderate Republican incumbent, the combination of those things made it feel that they wouldn���t have the energy. There was no push on other people���s part because they weren���t paying attention like we were here to the fact that he no longer was that moderate. It was a feeling that was left over. What we had to do was bring people to understand that he voted for the tax cut, voted for the war, voted for the energy bill, all of the things that the administration wanted. And he is pro-choice, since he is pro-choice, everything else is the 88% of the time that he votes for the administration.

Me: Exactly. When you say ���we��� are you talking about your campaign or Bucks county Democrats?

GS: A combination of both. After the 2000 election we really put on a push. There were so many of us who came into the party to revitalize it. Here, we able to incorporate people who had been here all along. You don���t want to toss out people who were working diligently the field, especially in this area. We were able to incorporate the people who had been here with the new people who had that energy and wanted to so more, and who wound up energizing everyone. That was really important.

Me: There was a contested primary though, right?

GS: It was a contested primary. However, it was a right-wing Republican who had run against Greenwood in the primaries over and over. What he thought he could do was hijack the Democratic primary unto himself. That didn���t work. We were running a serious campaign���thank God���so that he wasn���t able to do that. We were able to move out without much effort at all and win the primary. He was a well known, right-winger. People knew who he was from all those years of running.

Me: Closed primaries in Pennsylvania though, so as long as Democrats knew who he was they weren���t going to vote for him.

GS: The people who knew who he was���the Democrats who knew who he was were not going to get involved with him. He was pro-life, so he got a certain bit of the vote because of that. There are people who will vote that issue over everything else.

Me: What did you do before you decided to run for Congress?

GS: I went to law school when I was 39���before then I raised my family. I worked in government for a while. I got a Master���s degree in public administration while I was there.

Me: Where did you work in the government?

GS: I worked for the redevelopment authority in Philadelphia, when I came here. I am originally from South Boston.

Me: I am originally from Upstate New York myself.

GS: I came here in the very early seventies. When I was 39 I decided to go to law school. When I got out of law school I decided to go into insurance. I worked for AIG, which is one of the largest insurance companies in the world. To be a woman, and to be in that corporate environment, and to become a vice-president of one their subsidiaries, I learned a lot about higher-ups. This will all come in very handy in what I am doing now. I am used to those tough pressure kinds of situations.

Me: Are you on a leave of absence?

GS: No, I had to walk away. It was the only way to do this right, so I took early retirment.

Me: When did you decide to do that?

GS: As soon as I decided to do the race, there was no question that I was going to do that. The way my birthday fell, and the kind of retirement requirements they had, it had to be July 1st. It was just economic. I am not a rich person. I had to do the best I could with it. That did interfere with my early fundraising, since you can���t fundraise and work full-time.

Me: Now that there is no Greenwood, and now that you are campaigning full-time and the primaries are over, is this now seen as a race that groups such as the DCCC or MoveOn will target?

GS: Yep, they are already here, they have already moved in! There are two of them here now, and we are going downtown. I have been down to Washington and met with the Pennsylvania delegation���really good. The convention is this week, so you are not seeing as many people around. There was a really nice thing in the paper from T.J. Rooney, who is the head of the Democratic state party, about how supportive he is and as soon as this convention is over these guys are going to be right here working on the fundraising and helping us out. It was really exciting that guys were able to put almost $40,000 in the bank.

Me: I certainly hope that can become a lot more. Had you ever heard of the Blogosphere before?

GS: I know about it from Dean! We were working with Democracy for America and MoveOn and trying to get their attention. This is a real people, grassroots campaign. This wasn���t something being done by ���the big guys,��� it was being done by people in this district who thought we had a chance to do it. It was something that we wanted the Internet involved in���it was one of our hopes we could get them to care enough to jump in. Of course, having this happen just made it great.

Me: I imagine it is only a matter of time before Democracy for America gives you an endorsement.

GS: They were in their last stages of whether they were going to endorse us anyway. And so now, we have probably moved to the front of the line.

Me: Fabulous!

GS: Yep!

Me: When it comes to the future, now that you have all this support and you are running a big campaign, what do you plan on doing in Congress? What would be the most important issue for you, or the two or three most important issues?

GS: Oh, I know, it���s awful. This year, people ask you what are your issues, and you could right a book on your issues! The first thing you always have to worry about is international responsibility. I use those words because it encompasses more than just the war in Iraq, but also terrorism, our position in the world, and how we are viewed and respected by other countries. That is what we need to do. Honestly, I think John Kerry is going to do one hell of a job at it if he gets his chance.

Me: You opposed the war before it began, from what I understand on your website.

GS: It didn���t feel right���it just never felt right. It felt, almost like the President went on vacation, and he comes back and suddenly it was a great emergency. It���s like ���how come it wasn���t an emergency in the middle of your vacation?���

Me: Weren���t we on yellow or something? We weren���t on very high alert when supposedly we were in imminent danger.

GS: It just never felt right. And the weapons of mass destruction and all this stuff--which gee, what a surprise--none of it was true. To tell you the truth, I was surprised there was none. You know what I mean? I thought there would be something.

Andy (my ride/roommate/brother): They sold it so hard, that I thought maybe Iraq had some.

GS: I thought they were going to make a big deal out of something that was relatively minor. But to find that there was none! The trick is that had there been anything, they would have used it. The only thing that made it ���perfect��� was that there was none.

Me: But of course as we know now the intent to possibly want to make them someday is the same thing as having them, according to the administration. I would actually like to ask more about Iraq, when it comes to our troop situation. We are now calling up inactive reserves, and we are stretched pretty thin.

GS: Oh, it is devastating.

Me: Would you be in favor of an immediate scale-back, or even withdrawal of the troops?

GS: I think what has to happen is the world has to become actively involved in Iraq, and I think I new administration can do that. Once there is a new administration, as I say when I am talking to people, when you have people locked in a struggle--you know, they are negotiating, like I learned at my business--when they are negotiating and you got it so that it is personal and everyone���s got their heels dug in, you get nowhere, everyone���s locked. You take one of those away, so that it is a different person negotiating, suddenly that picture of it being impossible goes away. I think everyone wants to help, everyone knows that the situation isn���t good, what they are looking for is a way in dignity to be involved with us, and give dignity to the Iraqi people, and give dignity back to themselves. I think what is going to happen is we are going to have a multinational force that will be in there with us. We will not be with ourselves.

Me: This is actually one point where I disagree. It is hard for me to imagine that other countries are going to want to come in, even if Kerry is President, which I absolutely believe he will be.

GS: If it is a multinational���if it is seen as a world problem���if it is not just American problem. Whatever we did, it is done now. Whether it was right, whether it was wrong, it is done. We can���t walk away from there now and leave it a hotbed for every terrorist group that ever thought of us. There has to be some security for us and the Iraqi people, some safety so the kids can go to school and the hospitals can run. We just can���t walk away, but I don���t just mean the US. The world can���t just walk away. My feeling is that if we can get the entire world involved in it, we can stop the unilateralism of the administration. I think the world will want to come, I think they want to come. I think we will see less of the burning hatred that seems to be being mined there. The UN knows how to do this. We have gone into countries before, after World War Two, and built up countries and I think we can do it here.

Me: There have even been recent successes in Kosovo and East Timor.

GS: Exactly. It can be done, with all of the pain. We have to go now!

Me: You have to go? OK.

GS: I have about four or five other things���meeting with the Veterans, everybody giving me money.

Me: Well thank you for your time.

GS: Thank you!

Posted at 01:00 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Friday, July 23, 2004

Too Many Polls to Count

DemFromCT has done yeoman's work and rounded up more polls than you can shake a stick at. There are new surveys out for AZ, FL, MI, NH, OH, OR and PA. I'm going to highlight that last one, which was done by the LA Times (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 51
Bush: 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ��4%)

Twelve points in PA? Gadzooks. Even with Nader included, Kerry holds a 10-point lead. Bush's job approval is below the Mendoza line here, at 47-48. The lack of trendlines is a bit frustrating, though, and it might be a while before the distant LA Times polls Pennsylvania again.

Posted at 06:34 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (11) | Technorati

Monday, July 19, 2004

Help Ginny Schrader in PA-8

As you probably know, my election-year mantra is "Make Them Sweat:" Contest every race, and fight hard in each one. We won't win them all, but we'll make life a hell of a lot tougher for the other side. Just check out what Richard Morrison has managed to do down in Texas: For the first time in ages, I'm told, Tom DeLay is actually nervous enough that he's opened up a campaign office. (And not one, but two!)

The best part about following this strategy is that every once in a while, you get supremely lucky. And that, folks, has happened today. The blogosphere (led by DKos) has been abuzz with the news that Rep. Jim Greenwood, a "moderate" Republican representing Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District (Philly suburbs), has decided to retire.

This is a district which went narrowly for both Gore and Rendell. In short, it's a race we can definitely win, now that it's been thrown wide open. And you already know how important a swing state PA is, and how crucial it is for us to drive up turnout in the heavily Democratic Philadelphia region.

Our candidate, Ginny Schrader, looks good on paper in all aspects but one: She's very low on funds. We can make a huge difference overnight if we chip in to help her out - and we can also scare off any Republicans who might consider entering this race now. Imagine the headlines tomorrow or the next day if the blogosphere rapid-response network can toss Ginny some serious coin. I've seldom suggested donating to a particular candidate, but the special nature of this situation makes it impossible to pass up.

I suggest donating via ActBlue, which makes it much easier to track where donations come from. (And don't worry, ActBlue gives 100% of all donations to the campaigns.) I've already made a contribution - I hope you can make one, too.

Let's go, Ginny!

P.S. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that as Bush's situation looks more dire, and the prospects for Democrats to retake the Presidency and Congress look better and better, more Republicans will start announcing their retirements. If you're in your 60s, say, and facing the possibility of returning to D.C. in the minority party, the warm embrace of your grandkids - and that cushy lobbying job in the private sector - start to look very tempting.

UPDATE: Kos just informed us that Ginny's campaign raised an astounding $14,000 online in just four hours tonight. This is going to be a big story.

Posted at 08:02 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 14, 2004

Pennsylvania Q-Poll: Kerry Stays in the Lead

Quinnipiac University has a new poll out, conducted between July 6-11 with 1,577 registered Pennsylvania voters (late June in parens):

Kerry: 49
Bush: 42
Other/Undecided: 9
(MoE: ��2.5%)

In a three-way race (with Nader included), John Kerry and John Edwards have opened up a five-point lead over Bush/Cheney. But Nader is having massive ballot-access problems in PA.

The poll is also reporting that Kerry is gaining strength in Southwestern Pennsylvania and is strengthening his support among union members. My personal guess is that a combination of the unions institutionally feeling betrayed by Bush due to his flip-flop on steel tariffs, greater union discipline, and an unwillingness to vote on cultural versus economic issues is all starting to have an effect on solidifying this part of the Democratic winning coalition. We are also dealing with the start of an Edwards bounce as we enter the second phase of the campaign. The electorate has decided that Bush probably does not deserve a second term but the alternative needs to be examined. Well, the Kerry-Edwards ticket is looking mighty attractive so this is some good news.

Finally, I would want to wait to see if the Q-poll result is replicated with a couple of other outside the MoE leads for Kerry before the convention - but this could offer a good explanation as to why Pennsylvania is not flooded with television advertisments. Pennsylvania could be a swing state with a strong Kerry lean that needs some defense, but may not be a prime flip target. Interesting!

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

[Post modified slightly to put polling results in standard SSP format. - David]

Posted at 01:46 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (11) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

The Pittsburgh Effect

David already posted about the impact of the Edwards selection as VP on his home state of North Carolina. But my mind has been wrapped around another aspect of John Kerry's Vice Presidential announcement - its location.

Although I do not live in Pittsburgh, I am getting a strong vibe about the level of effort being put into this area by John Kerry. Due to Theresa Heinz-Kerry's close relationship to the Pittsburgh area, there is a great opportunity here to influence the election in 2004. Presidential wives aren't known to carry states as far as I know, but owning personal property where you can hold Independence Day barbecues does a lot for a candidate's profile. And announcing the VP selection in Pittsburgh before a tour that will end in North Carolina is pure brilliance in the way in which it creates an extended media opportunity. The only thing missing was John Edwards standing alongside Kerry with hands held high in the air. While I missed seeing that, the opportunity will come at the convention, so it isn't a big loss.

Over the last few days, Dick Cheney was also in town. The local news channels were covering both visits but the contrasts couldn't be more obvious. Cheney was coming to speak to a closed door Republican Group in Oakland. Announcement only. But the local news was broadcasting for days that for anyone who wanted to see John Kerry, doors would open at 7am. So there was an announcement plus an update on what to do if you wanted to see Kerry.

And then, this morning, watching the VP announcement on WTAE-ABC, I couldn't help but notice their pleasant coverage. "[Steelers great] Franco Harris welcomed the crowd by telling them that he was not the Vice Presidential nominee." They repeated this line several times and added this additional off-hand comment as well, "Wow, he is really going all out for Kerry this year, isn't he." And remember, this coverage is not only piping out across Western Pennsylvania but also eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia.

I don't think the effect is anecdotal. Pittsburgh has an impressive Meetup enrollment of 1,337 rating it highly in comparison to cities of similar size. Kerry has done fairly well in the polls here too. I hope that the Kerry campaign continues to make intelligent use of its personal ties to swing regions like Pittsburgh and North Carolina.

Posted at 03:21 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Thursday, July 01, 2004

Hoeffel Takes a Hit

The Pennsylvania Senate race is, from the Democrats' perspective, the top race of the second-tier pick-up opportunities; it is not an Illinois or an Alaska. There has been a reasonable chance of a pickup if the party maintains unity, runs a strong candidate who does not make too many if any mistakes and sees Specter spend a lot of political capital repairing the bridges buckled if not burned during a bruising primary campaign. Well, if I need to handicap the chances of a Democratic pick-up, the odds just got signficantly longer this afternoon.

Former Congressman Ron Klink (D-PA) has announced that he will be leading a "Democrats for Specter" committee. Klink is a conservative Democrat from the western part of the state. His former district has elected Melissa Hart (R-PA) for the past two cycles, and she is pretty conservative. Klink represents a large enough chunk of the state Democratic Party to give Specter some breathing room despite his low re-elect numbers. This race just got to be a lot tougher.

NOTE: Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 05:04 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (4) | Technorati

Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Swing State Roundup Redux

TAP had a new Purple People Watch column out last week. It's almost entirely about the Senate races shaping up in the various battleground states.

Meanwhile, Slate has slowly continued its state-by-state series. I should say very slowly: In a month, they've only done two states. Gotta pick up the pace, fellas. Unfortunately, they've changed authors for the latest installment. The tolerable Chris Suellentrop wrote the first piece (on Missouri), but now they have the odious Lord Saletan penning the current piece on West Virginia. Maybe I'll wade through it (it's a three-part "diary" format) at some point. Or maybe I won't.

One really frustrating thing is the Economist's swing state series. All of the articles seem to wind up behind their subscription wall eventually. But for a brief period of time, they sometimes provide a link to the story for free - and that link seems to never expire. I was able to dig up working links for their entries on Pennsylvania and New Mexico. If you can extract links to any other stories in this series, please post `em here.

UPDATE: Okay, so I decided to read Saletan's WV diary, and it's not half-bad. It's pretty striking how conservative West Virginia is - striking because the state has so often voted Democrat in the past, and there's a good chance it'll do so again this year. The trick, says Saletan, is to appeal to protectionist sentiments and to demonstrate appropriate fealty to the military, something war veteran Kerry can actually do.

But Saletan does make one (pretty glaring) error. He says that West Virginians respect authority and have switched to the GOP when a Republican incumbent was running for re-election. (WV went red in `56, `72 and `84). The big problem with this thesis is `92, when incumbent Bush p��re lost. And back then, I'm willing to bet that economic issues did old number 41 in - just like they might once again.

UPDATE: Carl in the comments provides a link for the Economist's Arizona piece. I had also previously posted a link to the inaugural Ohio article.

Posted at 04:28 PM in Arizona, General, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, West Virginia | Comments (4) | Technorati

Wednesday, June 16, 2004

Philadelphia Daily News Endorses John Kerry

This story has been making the rounds in the blogosphere today: The Philadelphia Daily News has officially endorsed John Kerry for president. They're claiming to be the first newspaper in America to do so, and as such, they're bound to get more attention than had they waited until October.

But it's also important for a couple of other reasons. First, I hardly need to remind anyone around here how crucial a swing state Pennsylvania is - something the editors of Daily News are also keenly aware of. Second, this isn't just a mere endorsement but rather a comprehensive action plan. Indeed, the front-page banner reads, "How You Can Help Elect John Kerry." The editors include detailed information about how to get registered, register others, and volunteer for organizations (like ACT) which are helping to oust Bush.

This is a stark difference from the New York Times endorsements I'm used to reading, which typically declare a pox on both houses before grudgingly endorsing one candidate. I'm also told by one e-mailer that the Philly Daily News is normally a very conservative paper. Never having read it before, I won't swear by that description, though if so, this represents an even bigger coup. (Maybe my PA-based guest bloggers can shed some light?)

I also want to make one last related point: A newspaper's ability to support a candidate in this way demonstrates to me the futility and unfairness of campaign finance laws. The argument that supports of campaign finance reform usually make is that we need to keep money out of politics. Yet the dollar value of this endorsement - a full cover picture and headline, a huge editorial - is enormous. Indeed, the Philly Daily News could run a story like this every week if it wanted. Because it's a media organization, the Supreme Court allows the Daily News almost unfettered first amendment freedom to support the candidates of its choosing.

But as an individual, I can't give more than $2000 to the Kerry campaign. Why should the Daily News be able to support John Kerry more extensively than I can? That seems quite unjust to me.

P.S. TAP's latest roundup is now online.

Posted at 05:31 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (6) | Technorati

This Swing State is Swinging At Me

I have been meaning for a while to write on this but I've been noticeably absent from political blogs these past two months. I have been caught up with my life's work which has apparently landed me in the middle of swing state politics. I work for a non-partisan organization so my job is to keep above the partisan fray while doing my job - which just so happens to be working to protect a national forest in a swing state. This is more of a swing state story than an analysis but I thought it would be interesting nonetheless.

It all started on Earth Day. We had no special plans and were just plugging away as usual when we get a call. It seems that President Bush had planned two major events (that I know of) for Earth Day in 2004. Bush was directly involved in one such event in Maine. I don't recall the specifics. For the other, he sent his Secretary of Agriculture to Pennsylvania to promote logging in the state's only national forest.

I cannot tell you fur sure this is by design but its definitely true that the Bush Administration has made frequent trips to Western Pennsylvania - primarily in Pittsburgh. And I know its debatable what kind of influence the environment will have on this years election. And throughout the next few weeks I almost entirely cut myself out of the partisan political scene because I was engaged in my non-partisan work.

First, a co-worker attempted to join the tour of the national forest logging sites being given by the US Forest Service for Veneman's stump speech. The Secretary and company were gathered at a recently logged "Healthy Forests Initiative" site. He pulled in and was greeted by Forest Service Law Enforcement. He was quickly he could not stand on public lands and listen to Veneman's speech and if he tried he would be arrested.

A shit-storm hits. Having effectively ruined our rabid Congressman's visit he promptly follows a week later with a press release - attacking us. Why the delayed attack? Well, it turns out the swing state stump speeches aren't over. Next trip - US Forest Service Chief Dale Bosworth. Once again the Chief is pushing "Healthy Forests Initiative" logging in our national forest. And this time they don't threaten arrest but we do learn some salient facts - such as the fact that this will be the second largest logging project in this forest ever (we're in court over the largest right now).

The full force of the Bush Administration's "Healthy Forests Initiative" is now upon us (and no, I can't not put that in quotes). And stepping away from my day job I can't wonder what this means in an important swing state. Most of the logging has not commenced but will be in full force by summer's end. This could very well generate a lot of press.

And there does appear to be broader recognition of the political importance of this part of the state despite our small populations. Governor Rendell has made several trips up here this year and I don't think its a coincidence. He has on one hand praised a local timber company (based in Oregon) and on the other been promoting tourism. No question, there is a political game here. So what will it be?

Posted at 11:01 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Friday, May 28, 2004

Quick Poll Roundup: AZ, IA, PA

Arizona, ASU/KAET-TV (4/23 - 4/26 in parens):

Kerry: 38 (38)
Bush: 43 (41)
Nader: 2 (3)
Undecided: 17 (18)
(MoE: ��5.1%)

What minor moves there are here are all well within the MoE. However, Bush's overall approval rating stayed the same at 48-47. The last poll on that front was taken all the way back in February, so it seems like all the bad news for the Bushies hasn't hurt him much in this state. The big number of undecideds could wind up tilting our way, though. (CW says that undecideds break for the challenger in the end.)

Iowa, Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (January in parens):

Kerry: 48 (42)
Bush: 43 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

Kerry: 46
Bush: 42
Nader: 3
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ��4%)

No trendlines when the poll includes Nader. We should definitely win here.

Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac (mid-April in parens):

Kerry: 45 (42)
Bush: 42 (46)
Undecided: 9 (7)

Kerry: 44 (39)
Bush: 41 (45)
Nader: 6 (8)
Undecided: 9 (8)
(MoE: ��3.7%)

Definitely looking a lot better than last time around, but I think we still need to fight hard here.

Posted at 02:05 AM in Arizona, Iowa, Pennsylvania | Comments (4) | Technorati

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Theresa Heinz-Kerry

I am not worried about Pennsylvania going red this election. Kerry will need to run a quasi-competent campaign to win the Commonwealth, but that is as close to a given as Secretariat was to win the Triple Crown. I could offer you some basic reasons such as the overall economic profile of the state has been poor, or that the Democratic Party led by Gov. Rendell has its act together, or as an extension of that, SW PA Democrats led by Onorato have been able to squelch the Roddey led GOP money machine down here. Or I could offer you the thesis that the radical right has overreached and that the Toomey voting base is willing to throw a temper tantrum in November. These are all good reasons to believe that Pennsylvania should be a blue state this year. However the primary reason is John Kerry's wife; Theresa HEINZ Kerry.

Theresa is golden in SW PA which is the swing region of the state. But before I explain why, I must disclose that I work at an organization that will soon be applying for significant Heinz Endowment Funds, I went to grad school at the Heinz School for Public Policy, and I occassionally go to the Symphony at Heinz Hall and the history musuem at the Heinz Regional History Center.

Theresa has massive credibility with the people of Southwestern Pennsylvania because she has stuck with the region through the thick and the thin. After her first husband died in a tragic helicopter crash, she could have left the region, but she stayed and entrenched herself as a Pittsburgher, one of the few new migrants to stick with the region. Her efforts in philanthropy have made the Heinz Endowments one of the most effective regional foundations in the country. She has made it a philosophy to get results with foundation money and she has achieved results in community development, education and now real estate development with the Hazelwood Works project. Healthcare and environmental education have also been a significant priority for the Heinz Endowments over the past fifteen years.

She has the credibility to make changes because she has made changes. She was for a long time, a moderate Republican and one of the two or three most powerful Republican women in the state. She switched becasue her husband was running for the Democratic nomination AND the Republican Party of John Heinz III is no longer a continuing entity. The Heinz Endowment was also willing to pull funding from the failing Pittsburgh public schools and then in conjunction with the other major foundations create solutions that the school system could use to improve the educational experience of the children involved. She has the credibility to propose change because she has the history of making successful change.

Finally, I have had the pleasure of listening to her speak publicly numerous times, and she is an enjoyable person to listen to. Her accent is distinct but not disturbing, while her words burn with both passion and intelligence. If John Kerry sets his wife out to do what she would do anyways; find ways to speak her mind and her passions, Southwestern Pennsylvania will follow her to the ballot box.

Posted at 10:18 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (32) | Technorati

Thursday, April 29, 2004

The Nader Effect in PA

I have contended for some time that folks are over-emphasizing the impact that Nader will have in 2004. And since I'm fresh from getting snippy with some Democrat villifying Nader over at DailyKos, I thought I'd share some information that might help shed some light on the anticipated impact of Nader in this election.

As it turns out, the Green Party in Pennsylvania just held its 2004 Caucus on April 24th. In that caucus delegates were selected to represent Pennsylvania at the Green Party's national convention. Here are the leading results:

Now, I think the implications are obvious. Put aside how Nader himself did and realize that even if Nader got every other vote, the ability of "No Candidate" to siphon off 9 of 37 delegates is impressive! At the very least, this should be a bellwether for where the Green Party stands in 2004. Given the impressive results for Cobb and "No Candidate," I think it's pretty clear that Nader is only going to have marginal success at the election booth in November. (Remember that Nader polled much higher than he performed in the election in 2000 as well. That effect will be more dramatic this time around.) Oh yeah, and Kerry got one vote.

(My post from the Seamus Press and Election Results by County from the PA Green Party.)

Posted at 11:49 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Monday, April 26, 2004

Bush Losing His Coattails

I spent most of today listening to sports radio because I am a football freak. Arlen Specter was advertising extremely heavily today with two different ads on the radio. The first was a very positive one in which President Bush speaks for his need to have Arlen Specter in the Senate to win Pennsylvania in November and a generic plea by Specter for his supporters to come out and vote tomorrow. The other ad in rotation was a far more negative one in which Specter does not quite go for his former "Toomey not far right, far out" tag line but it was pretty close.

Now we know that the polls are suggesting either a toss-up or a slight Toomey edge. The weather looks thoroughly mediocre tomorrow, so if only the more dedicated voters go to the polls tomorrow, I think Toomey pulls out a squeaker.

Now I think that Specter will be a very expensive defeat for Bush as it will be the second data point and thus a start of a trend which will diminish his power against Congress. Bush has placed a pretty impressive amount of support behind a vulnerable incumbent in a critical swing state and it looks like he will lose this bet. His candidate Kerr lost in Kentucky and Terrel lost in the Lousiana run-off. So the last two single race elections in which there is a Bush backed candidate have been losses even though the demographics of the electorate should theoretically favor the Bush backed candidate. As DavidNYC points out, this is not a complete summary as the Bush backed candidate won the governorships of Kentucky and Mississippi, but the trend is favorable for the Dems.

Now if Specter loses, it "proves" that Bush can not protect vulnerable Republicans against either hard core conservative primary challengers or from competent moderate to conservative Democratic challengers. The Bush family and its political machine have built their operation on fear of retribution. The effectiveness of management by fear fails miserably when the opposition calls the bluff. This means that no vulnerable Republican will automatically assume that blind obedience to Bush is an electoral winner this summer and during the fall. Congressional Republicans are already behind in the generic Congressional ballot races. This gives vulnerable incumbents a very strong incentive to watch out for their own best interest.

Tomorrow will be interesting because it could give the press the start of a meta-narrative of "Bush losing his base."

Crossposted at Fester's Place

Posted at 08:06 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (6) | Technorati

Wednesday, April 21, 2004

PA: Quinnipiac Poll Shows Kerry Behind Bush

There has been a TON of discussion over at the DailyKos about a new Quinnipiac poll showing Kerry trailing Bush in PA:

Bush: 45
Kerry: 39
Nader: 8

Kerry also trails in a head-to-head without Nader:

Bush: 46
Kerry: 42
(MOE: ��3.5%)

I'm not buying Nader at 8, and neither is former Green Party organizer Domne. Of course, there's still a four-point spread even without Ralph, but Winger tells us to catch our collective breath. He breaks down the numbers pretty convincingly to demonstrate that this is actually a very positive poll for Kerry.

Now sure, I don't like seeing numbers like this, and if the polls are still the same in August or September, I'll get a lot more panicked. But don't forget that Bush has spent roughly a trillion dollars, give or take, in the past month, while Kerry has spent about zilch. I'd also have to imagine that much of the political oxygen in PA is being sucked up by the GOP Senate primary, which is on Tuesday the 27th. In other words, it's early, and our man is still holding his own despite the huge onslaught.

Posted at 04:24 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (6) | Technorati

Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Kerry Down in PA

Just quick hit here (relating to the post immediately below): Kos points to a new F&M poll (PDF) which shows Kerry slipping several point behind Bush in PA. Feb numbers in parens:

Bush: 46 (46)
Kerry: 40 (47)

As always, I simply think we need to get on the airwaves here as elsewhere. So far, word is that the 527s have been doing some good ads on their own. Let's see the Kerry campaign follow suit - especially since Terry Mac's been bragging about the millions that the DNC is supposed to be forking over to Kerry right about now.

P.S. Veteran Kossack RonK has some thoughts on what these ads should look like.

Posted at 08:11 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (3) | Technorati

Sunday, March 28, 2004

Small Hints on the Election from Small Places

Those few of you who know me probably know that I live in a very rural community two hours northeast of Pittsburgh (my township has some 250+ registered voters). It is also a highly Republican area where Democratic candidates are few and far between. In fact, between 1996 (meaning after the 1996 election) and 2004 I cannot remember a single Democrat running for US House, PA Senate, or PA House. Which gets me to my reason for posting.

Many folks here and elsewhere have noted the outstanding turnout for many of the primary elections as a positive sign. And I think there are other signs that the left of center public is fired up and motivated for this 2004 election. I think it speaks to something because I haven't seen this kind of excitement for Democratic politics in a long time (indeed I've only seen it within third party work I do). And I think there small indications that this is spreading to even Republican areas in Pennsylvania. Democrats here are running candidates for both the PA Senate and House in 2004. Either 1) this is an indicator of growing election interest or 2) it will create greater interest in the election. I see this primarily as a good thing for Democrats winning Pennsylvania in 2004. To the extent that Republican votes in rural Pennsylvania can be countered even before the suburban and urban votes are tallied so much the better! This is something worth keeping an eye as the primaries approach.

Posted at 11:02 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Saturday, March 27, 2004

The Heinz Factor & Western Pennsylvania

It is often noted that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia & Pittsburgh with Alabama in between. While the basic implications of this are true it does overlook something else - the significantly different political landscape between eastern and western Pennsylvania. Philadelphia is the fourth largest media market in the country and much of the Poconos, although rural, is democratic and dominated by visitors from New York City, Philadelphia, and suburban New Jersey. Pittsburgh, in contrast, seems more like an island surrounded largely by a small suburban area (by eastern Pennsylvania standards) and very conservative rural areas.

One of the landscape differences that is unique to the 2004 Presidential election is the direct involvement of the Heinz Family through Teresa Heinz. Now, the Heinz family isn't new to politics but this is most definitely different by prior accounts given the national scope of the election and the state of the nation. I know from experience that in rural Pennsylvania, the Heinz Endowments, in which Teresa plays a significant role, themselves can be voiced as a sort of slur where the implication is often tied to some grand conspiracy of liberals. Actually, conspiracy theories are popular in these parts and are deep rooted in some of the bizarre power dynamics of western Pennsylvania.

Anyhow, the short of this is that the involvement of Teresa Heinz's husband John Kerry in the Presidential race will have some impact on the election in 2004. I think we will hear a lot of conservative hyperbole about the Heinz family and some of this will connect with voters. On the other hand, I think that the memory of Senator Heinz and the general positive feeling that people get from having a geographic representative of sorts can be helpful to Kerry. In either case, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette took a look at how the ketchup company itself is being affected and how this has already taken a hold on conservative talk radio.

Posted at 07:25 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, March 17, 2004

Nader Hurting Kerry in PA

This is the kind of thing I hate to see: A new Q-Poll in PA shows the following:

Kerry: 40
Bush: 44
Nader: 7

Without Nader, here's how it looks:

Kerry: 45
Bush: 44

It goes without saying that I hope the Nader number heads steadily downward. The good news is that he only pulled 2.1% in PA in 2000, and I have a hard time imagining he can do better than that this time around. Furthermore, 18% of respondents said they still hadn't heard enough about Kerry to form an opinion of him, while only 1% said the same thing about Bush. So I think once the Kerry campaign gets into full swing in Pennsylvania (and it surely will), his increased name recognition will give him a boost - at Nader's (and maybe even Bush's) expense.

(Via Political Wire.)

Posted at 05:29 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (14) | Technorati

Monday, March 08, 2004

Pennsylvania Solid Blue?

The Big Picture is posting a link to a Zogby analysis found in Barrons that is suggesting that Pennsylvania is not a swing state in the 2004 election. I am not sure what to make of this statement. I would like to imagine that Pennsylvania is not in play as it will go to Kerry as it would mean that West Virginia and Ohio are definately winnable without a massive expenditure of resources because a Pennsylvania win for a Democrat would mean strong support in the Philly corner and a good showing in Southwestern PA which is culturally and socially similiar to West Virginia and Appalachian Ohio.

However I look at the nimrods that significant portions of this state sends to Congress and I have to doubt that. I have been getting slowly more optimistic over the past two months about November, but I have not gotten that optimistic yet. It is likely in my opinion that Spectar will be re-elected in the fall barring a national revulsion against the Republican Party in general and that there are very few winnable Congressional seats in Pennsylvania for the Democrats to pick-up. The Allentown district is the best change, but Toomey is entrenched. Pennsylvania will be a tough fight regardless of what today's polling results show.

Posted at 05:39 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, February 25, 2004

Implication of the FMA in Pennsylvania

I have to agree with Kos that Bush did not want to come out for openly enshrining discrimination into the basic values and laws of our American experiment. Instead he would have prefered to covertly discriminate and marginalize a segment of our population by executive order, rule design and innuendo. Coming out is an expensive procedure for Bush and it may cost the GOP a Senate seat that is somewhat safe.

Arlen Specter (R-PA) has stated that it is "premature" for him to consider the need for a constitutional amendment and that this is the proper question for the states to decide amongst and for themselves. This is a statement that is pretty damm close to the Kerry's and Edwards' positions, so it is one that I can live with.

However he is facing a strong challenge from the extreme, theological right in the form of Rep. Pat Toomey. Toomey is one of the co-sponsors of the amendment. His entire campaign strategy is based on riling up the conservative base against the Republican in Name Only Specter. This is an issue that he will use successfully to do so in my opinion. However, I believe that Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D-PA) the main Democratic challenger should be able to beat Toomey in the general election while Specter should be able to beat Hoeffel in most circumstances.

So this is a costly exercise of Bush screwing his party in order to further his own political hide... not that I am complaining.

Posted at 08:00 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (4) | Technorati

Thursday, February 19, 2004

Pennsylvania Competitive

Via DemFromCt's DKos diary I came across this poll which shows John Kerry is beating George W. Bush by 5 points in Pennsylvania if the election was to be held today.

This is a critical state for both sides. If Bush wins Pennsylvania, the election is most likely over by 9:00pm EST on election night. If the Democrats can hold Pennsylvania and do well in the Southwestern part of the state, then that portends strength going into Ohio and West Virginia which we need to take in order to win the election. Bush is being troubled by an appearance of weakness on the economy, the steel tariff flip-flop and a looming sense that he is not "with it." However he is still seen as a strong and trustworthy character.

Posted at 09:04 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Podesta: Bush will Replace Cheney with Ridge

I went to a Q&A with former Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta this afternoon. He talked about a wide range of things, but nothing which veered very far outside the conventional wisdom - or at least, far from opinions which you've probably already seen expressed elsewhere. Of course, Podesta brings a level of nuance and insider knowledge few others have, which makes him eminently worth hearing.

Podesta did, however, make one bold statement. I asked about swing states (what else?) - specifically, which ones he thought were most vulnerable, for our team and theirs. He gave the sort of answers you'd expect: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, and so on. He also mentioned he was worried about Pennsylvania, which he said had been trending Republican over the years. But then Podesta dropped his mini-bombshell. He said he thought that Bush would replace Cheney with former PA Gov. and current Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.

This would seem to be a smart move for Bush and a potentially devastating one for Democrats. Cheney gets Bush very little - if anything, he may be a net negative. (I'm talking politically - Bush still needs some behind-the-scenes puppet-master, and there's no reason to believe Cheney couldn't continue in that role even if he were not Vice President.) But Ridge, assuming he is still popular among Pennsylvanians, could turn the tide in that state and give Bush a big fat bundle of EVs.

Of course, I don't know whether Ridge is still popular at home. Outside of Karl Rove's bunker, I doubt there have been many polls conducted on this topic. But as I understand things, Ridge was pretty popular when he stepped down to take his current post. And while Bush has taken a lot of hits over his foreign policy, he still gets good ratings when it comes to fighting terrorism. So Ridge's present job as homeland security czar might give him a further aura of goodwill.

Anyhow, it'll be interesting to see how Podesta's prediction bears out. Unfortunately, I didn't get to ask a follow-up about when he sees this happening, but presumably it can't happen too late in the game. In any case, I sure hope it doesn't happen - I want to keep PA, and I want to see Johnny "Sunshine" Edwards wipe the floor with Darth Cheney in the VP debates.

UPDATE: A number of people have asserted that Ridge's apparently pro-choice views make him a non-viable because of the influence of the Christian right in the GOP. I'm not so sure about this. Joe Lieberman was forced to utterly disavow his support for vouchers (admittedly a somewhat less controversial topic) when Gore selected him as Veep, and I didn't hear any Democrats threaten to defect on account of this.

I think Ridge could easily have a similar "change of heart" and toe the administration line on the abortion issue. This sets him apart from, say, Rudy Giuliani, who is out-of-step with the GOP leadership on too many issues and could never be made to shut up.

Posted at 06:57 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (12) | Technorati

Tuesday, February 03, 2004

Pittsburgh Employment Situation

The state of Pennsylvania is reporting that the greater Pittsburgh MSA has lost almost 12,000 additional jobs in 2003. This is in addition to the 12,000 jobs that were lost in 2002. This is primarily due to continued losses in steel, airlines and retail trades. There have been few start-ups or expansions in ther egion that can absorb the idled or underemployed laborforce.

The jobless rate is artificially low due to increased out-migration and an increased number of people who are leaving the workforce because they can not find a job and do not believe that they will find a job despite their best efforts. This is the economy that Bush has to deal with in a critical swing region in November and it ain't good.

Posted at 10:08 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Thursday, January 22, 2004

Conditions in SW Pennsylvania

This is my first post here on the Swing State Project. I have been asked to write about the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania and how the economy and general sentiment will shape the roll of Pennsylvania as a swing state in November. Culturally this area can be divided into two sections. Urban Pittsburgh and the inner communities of Allegheny County and the rest of the region. The rest of the region is fairly dispersed, still crumbling after the steel industry pulled out, socially conservative and reluctant to embrace tax plans. They are Reagan Democrats and Dean's "guys with Confederate Flag stickers on their trucks." The urban areas of this state are predominately older style ethnic machine Democrats. The city itself is overwhelmingly Democratic and the county has a strong Democratic trend as witnessed by the 60-40 election of Dan Onorato (D) to the position of County Executive.

However the local Democratic Party is not that particulary strong. For instance, the Democrats have been losing seats on the county council for the past two elections, now it is down to an 8-7 margin as the Republicans have been reasonably successful in picking up seats in the northern suburbs. Dan Onorato is working to make the institutional machinery of the county more Democratic but the party is engaged in a minor war with itself between the old school and the new school that wants to change the party on social issues. Mayor Murphy lost two important council elections against members of the new wave of Democrats in the county. Finally the Allegheny County Democrats are slightly suspicious of any of the new activism/ party building activity that has been undertaken by either the Dean or Clark local volunteer supporters.

With this said, Southwestern PA should definatively be in play for the Democrats this year with a slight tilt towards a strong defense of the region. President Bush has successfully managed to piss off the Steelworkers over both the tariffs and legacy cost issues. The senior Steelworker leaderrship is extremely worried about the solvency of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation. Any Bush policy proposal towards retirement security, has, from the point of view of the union, been insufficient. The unions and small manufacturers should also be incensed about the dramatic downscaling of the Manufacturing Extension Plan. Bush has not done a good job of selling himself as a good economic policy president, or even as a good disperser of goodies to Southwestern Pennsylvania.

If the Democrats nominate a candidate who has reservations about free trade and relative indifference about gun control, then the Democrats should be able to hold onto Southwestern Pennsylvania and make signifcant gains in Southeastern Ohio and all of West Virginia. The party needs to get its act together and take advantage of the new blood that wants to be used, but the conditions favor the Democrats in this region at this time.

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 04:34 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Thursday, October 30, 2003

Pennsylvania: Unemployment Figures

As I mentioned in the post below about Ohio, I made a mistake when I looked at Pennsylvania's unemployment statistics. I thought I was looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers, and in fact I was - but only for the overall statewide unemployment figures. However, the county-by-county numbers (and the maps that depict them) were not seasonally adjusted. So while I thought that the employment situation had improved in many PA counties (which mostly happened to be Republican ones), I was mistaken.

So I went back and did another comparison. I looked at Jan. `01 vs. Jan. `03 and Aug. `01 vs. Aug. `03. In the latter case, unemployment had worsened in 39 of 67 counties. In the former, unemployment worsened in a whopping 62 counties, and GOP strongholds were among the hardest hit. So no matter how you slice it, the employment situation is tough across all of PA.

Posted at 05:56 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Sunday, October 26, 2003

Pennsylvania: Additional Thoughts

Based on the comments people made in regard to my last post on Pennsylvania, I'd like to toss in a few more thoughts.

The Rendell factor: Gov. Rendell has been pushing a tax plan which raises income & sales taxes but lowers property taxes. As I understand things, the income tax hike is designed to pay for educational spending, while the property tax cuts will allegedly be made up with revenues from slot machines (which Rendell is pushing to have legalized). In the comments, Jeff in PA says that suburban Republicans who supported Rendell in 2002 (when he won 53-45) are likely to pay the most and benefit the least from these proposals. If these "Rendellicans" turn on the Governor, they may take out their dissatisfaction on the Democratic presidential candidate next year.

Voter turnout: Jgkojak says there is a fear that Dem turnout, which was high in 2000, has "nowhere to go but down". I may be comparing apples to oranges here, but I'm not sure the numbers bear this out. Overall turnout among registered voters in the counties that went for Gore in 2000 was 62%. Overall statewide turnout was... 63%. Perhaps Democrats did turn out in greater numbers than usual - I'm not really sure what the right way to determine this is. (That joint degree at the Public Policy School is starting to look very useful right about now.) If anyone can offer greater clarity on the turnout number-crunching, I'd be grateful.

Steel tariffs: I totally neglected this topic my first time out. CW is that Bush Administration enacted these tariffs to win support among steel workers in states like PA and WV. Well, file this one with the "Hoist by Their Own Petard" Dept. Not only did the tariffs fail to win over unionized steelworkers - the United Steelworkers of America endorsed Gephardt in August - but, unsurprisingly, they've hurt manufacturers who use steel, especially in the swing states of Michigan and Tennessee. Now, almost everyone on the right is admitting that the tariffs were a big mistake. If the Bush Admin. rescinds these them (and it appears they might), this will only further damage the Republicans in WV and PA. At the same time, it may be too late to see the steel-using manufacturers make big recoveries if the tariffs are lifted. (Thanks to praktite for some color on the steel labor scene.)

Unemployment: Seems that the Bureau of Labor Statistics info is, in a way, only so much BS. As you may know, "unemployment" figures only count people who are looking for work. This makes sense in some cases - for example, you wouldn't want to count a stay-at-home mom as "unemployed". But when you figure things this way, you also don't count people who have simply given up looking for a job. In January, 2001, for example, rural Forest County had the worst rate of unemployment in PA - an abysmal 16.9%. In August, the official unemployment rate had sunk to 9.3% - a seemingly stunning improvement.

But if you actually look at the facts on the ground, these numbers seem to lie. Rural Pennsylvania, like the rest of rural America, is hemorrhaging jobs and brainpower. And if you check out the Erie Times-News article, you'll note that even Rep. John Peterson - who's about as conservative as they come - acknowledges that his district is in "serious trouble". The last three elected incumbents who lost (Bush I, Carter and Hoover) all did so in the midst of economic downturns. If otherwise loyal Republican voters are feeling this kind of pain, I can't imagine how Bush will be able to deal with it. And this doesn't even account for the anger of Democrats who have lost their jobs. (Peterson story thanks to seamus.)

Senate race: There's some speculation that Rove is behind Rep. Pat Toomey's right-wing attack on Specter. Whatever the case may be, it looks like things are gearing up for a delightful fratricidal GOP primary battle. I find it amusing that Toomey is using slogans like "too liberal for too long" to describe Arlen Specter - I think George Pataki used to say the same thing about Mario Cuomo, so at least Specter's in good company. Anyhow, if the conservative establishment pushes Toomey to victory, I think the Democrats could definitely pick up this seat if they can find a strong candidate. And even if Toomey doesn't win, Specter's unfavorables will get driven up amidst the negative campaigning (as he tries to cover his right flank), and the True Believers may just stay home on election day if their man Toomey isn't on the ballot.

All this is making me feel a bit more optimistic about PA. I'd say our biggest obstacles are a Rendell tax-hike-related backlash against Dems, plus Bush's natural incumbency advantages. But I think they are outweighed by voter unhappiness with Bush (approve/disapprove: 51/44), coupled with unemployment issues. These should combine to keep PA in Democratic hands in 2004.

Posted at 08:38 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Thursday, October 23, 2003

Pennsylvania

On to the Keystone State.

Electoral Votes: 21 (23 in 2000)

2000 Results:

Gore: 50.60%
Bush: 46.43%
Nader: 2.10%
Buchanan: 0.33%

Pennsylvania, with its 23 electoral votes, was the third-largest state to go blue in 2000 - only California (54) and New York (33) gave us more. Thanks to post-census redistricting, PA had a couple of Congressional seats shaved from its delegation, but its importance to the Democratic nominee is still immense. Nearly everyone agrees that if the Dem candidate cannot win PA, then the odds of him winning the Presidency are virtually nil. It's not just because those 21 EVs would be almost impossible to make up elsewhere, but rather because it would signal that we're out of the running in multiple swing-states. My understanding is that this scenario would come about only if there were a broad surge of pro-Bush sentiment, tipping a wide swath of yellow and green states into red. I don't really plan to explore this potential disaster situation because a) it doesn't pertain to any specific swing state and b) it would rely on utterly unpredictable, large-scale events, such as a turn-around in the economy or rapid progress in Iraq.

So what factors should we look at?

A lot of people have commented about the presence of Ed Rendell, PA's new Democratic governor and former DNC chairman. The conventional wisdom about governors says something like, "A governor can add 1-2% to his party's vote total." I'm a little skeptical of this because I'm not sure what this really means - or rather, how to analyze the validity of this proposition. Since every state has a governor (of course), how can you know what the real baseline is and how much on top of that the governor has added? Comparing polls to actual election-day results seems unsatisfactory to me because not only are polls often incorrect, but there's no reason to believe polls can filter out this alleged "governor effect", either. (You can't exactly ask, "Would you vote Democrat even if Ed Rendell wasn't governor?") This problem aside, Rendell's good connections and long experience may indeed help on the ground here. How much is, of course, impossible to say.

Then there's the Senate race: "Moderate" Republican Arlen Specter, who is running for re-election, is also facing a primary challenge from the right. People often suggest that a contested Senate (or gubernatorial) race can drive more people to the polls. Again I think it's hard to filter out the effects of state-wide races because so many other factors can affect voter turnout. Furthermore, a bitterly contested race may bring out partisans on both sides.

I will say this: If Specter starts faring poorly in the polls, then that is doubtless a good sign, sort of a reverse canary-in-the-coalmine. This may seem ultra-obvious, but I mention it because I think Specter's already showing some weakness. In a recent Quinnipiac poll, Specter is leading "someone else" (the pollster's phrase, not mine) by a mere 5% - 46% to 41%. That's pretty bleak, considering that 74% of respondents say they don't know enough to for an opinion of Specter's likely opponent, Rep. Joseph Hoeffel. And Specter's primary battle is only likely to drive up his negatives. (I don't think anyone ever emerges from a primary fight looking cleaner than when they went in.)

A quick note here on Bush's popularity: Like almost everywhere else, it's been plummeting - and plummeting sharply of late. Bush's immediate post-war approve/disapprove numbers (again from Quinnipiac) were 67/28 back in April. By August, they stood at 60/35, but in the last two months alone, Bush's approval sunk by a whopping 9 points to 51%, while his negatives rose by the same amount. In baseball, they talk of the "Mendoza line" when a player's batting average sinks below the pitiful figure of .200. If 50% approval ratings are the Mendoza line of the political world, then Bush is hovering awfully close to extreme mediocrity in PA.

Finally - and I think most importantly - I'd like to take a look at employment figures, which I did not examine with regard to New Hampshire. I confess this is where my analysis is weakest because my background in quantitative social science is, to be charitable, limited. But I'll forge ahead with a few thoughts in the hope that wiser souls can offer some more guidance in the comments section. (Also, a tip o' the tam o' shanter to MBW at Wampum who first inspired me to look at this topic.)

The seasonally-adjusted employment rate in PA stood at 4.2% in January, 2001 when Bush took office. In August of this year (the last month for which figures are available), the unemployment rate was a full point higher - 5.2%. If we believe the seemingly sensible proposition that this can only be bad news for the incumbent, then naturally this is "good news" for us (though obviously terrible news for PA residents and the country as a whole). I don't think this tells the whole story, though. Take a look at the maps below:

The top two maps are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is linked to above. They show unemployment by county in Jan. '01 & Aug. '03. As you can see, unemployment has actually decreased in most PA counties since the start of the Bush administration. (It is possible that the unemployment rate has been "artificially" lowered by people who have ceased looking for work, but I am unable to assess that.)

But take a look at the third map (which is courtesy of Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, a fantastic resource). If you do a quick visual comparison, you can see that the Gore counties are the ones which have been hardest-hit. (Just be aware that Dave uses red for the Dems and blue for the GOP.) I've done a more precise number-crunching, and I can tell you that 10 of 18 Gore counties have suffered an increase in unemployment, while only 12 of 49 Bush counties have. Furthermore, nearly all the sharpest declines (those over 1%) have been in the Gore counties, particularly in the Philadelphia region in southeastern PA.

While I can't imagine that voters in the Republican counties are crediting Bush with a booming economy, it does seem safe to say that anti-incumbent hostility can only have increased in the Democratic counties due to the economic situation. Turnout in these areas (primarily Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) will be crucial, and I think that the sour economy will propel more disaffected voters to the polls on election day. Obviously, a quick turnaround in the economy can negate this analysis, but time is running out for Bush on this count. As you may recall, the economy had already started to recover from the '90-'91 recession when Bush, Sr. was running for re-election in 1992, but the effects of the recovery failed to reach many voters by November of that year.

Ok, so there is one last thing: Fred in the comments section observes that PA has the second-highest proportion of elderly citizens of any state (only Florida has more). (Census Bureau PDF, page 17.) If you saw the recent NYT article, you know that Bush's popularity is declining among older voters. And if you've ever observed politics, you probably also know that the senior citizen demographic tends to vote in very high proportions.

So, all in all, I think we have a pretty decent shot at keeping PA. It's been said that the Pennsylvania is "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between," and I think the election will come down to voter turnout in those two urban poles at either end of the state. As I noted, I think some factors (like Specter's race & Rendell) are just too fuzzy to gauge, but the anger generated by joblessness is very real - and present. And I think this has the potential to be a major motivating force in the Democratic strongholds of PA and across the country.

But the bottom line is, this is a must-win for us. If you hear Jeff Greenfield calling Pennsylvania for Bush on election night, grab the Jack Daniels, because it's going to be a long four years.

(Also, I'd like to thank everyone who has been contributing in the comments section. Your insights have proven very helpful, even if I haven't been able to cite everyone by name.)

Posted at 11:29 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (15) | Technorati

Wednesday, October 22, 2003

Up Next: Pennsylvania

Since I'm making a geographical loop of sorts, the next swing state that is physically nearest to New Hampshire is Pennsylvania. If you have any thoughts or helpful links, I would, as always, be appreciative. I'll put together a more authoritative post in a day or two, hopefully.

Posted at 08:28 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (10) | Technorati