Swing State Project

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

SC-05: Spratt Crushing Norman in New Internal Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

The GOP got all excited when they got a one-term state Rep. - a fellow name of Ralph Norman - to take on Rep. John Spratt, who's represented SC-05 for two dozen years. They've been talking up his candidacy like mad, especially of late. Bigwigs (such as Cheney and Rove) are even raising money for him. Their causes for optimism are two-fold: One, Bush won this district 57-42 and two, last cycle, the Republican garnered 37% of the vote while spending nothing. Ordinarily, I'd say hey, yeah, you've definitely got a good target.

But not this time, papitos. The Spratt campaign just released a new internal poll. I got it off Hotline, so sorry about the lack of a link (likely voters, no trendlines):

Spratt: 61
Norman: 21
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5%)

I'm sure Norman will do better than the nobody who ran in 2004, but he's not gonna win. This might be the kind of seat you pick up in a good Republican year, but this ain't one of those. Spratt's got the wind at his back, especially with Bush's approval rating cratering in SC (he's now in negative territory). Norman was even dumb enough to go on record supporting the Dubai ports deal. When local experts are saying that even South Carolina Republicans have to run away from Bush, you know that's not a good move. I think Pratt's gonna be just fine, and Norman's political career will come to an abrupt end before long.

Posted at 05:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, South Carolina | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Friday, October 14, 2005

SC-05: Republicans Afraid of Bush

Posted by DavidNYC

I see that the GOP has found someone to take on Rep. John Spratt, a popular Democrat who represents South Carolina's 5th district. Actually, they already had someone - the winner, believe it or not, of the Showtime reality show "American Candidate." A bored press corps will probably get a few mild kicks out of following the Republican primary.

I'm not terribly worried about this seat, not least because Spratt won by a considerable 63-37 margin last time out. Yes, seats like that are loseable - but not often, and only when the political tides are really favoring your party. But of course, the opposite is the case, and what really jumped out at me in this article was the following bit:

With Bush's faltering popularity, Republicans might not be able to count on the president's coattails. That means some "Republicans know that they have to run from the president just to save their own seats," [Winthrop University political science professor Scott] Huffmon said. "They know that is not a good thing."

This Prof. Huffmon is, of course, just one expert, and heaven knows we drub the "experts" regularly here in blogland. So I'm not going to take what he says at face-value just because it happens to gibe with my hopes. But it does align with my reality-based expectations, and it's one of the most explicit times I've seen the cognoscenti state that GOP minions are really trying to distance themselves from Bush. It's definitely a phenomenon that bears watching.

Posted at 11:08 AM in 2006 Elections - House, South Carolina | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati

Sunday, May 08, 2005

SC-Gov: Tommy Moore Running for Governor

Posted by Bob Brigham

Lee Bandy in The State:

State Sen. Tommy Moore is the “right kind” of Democrat to beat Republican Gov. Mark Sanford next year if he gets the money, experts say.

Moore certainly has the credentials — 26 years of state legislative experience, an understanding of state government and a moderate to conservative voting record.

“He is the type who can get elected statewide,” says Danielle Vinson, a political scientist at Furman University.

There are some powerful dynamics at work that could make this quite a race. For one thing, Governor Sanford is in such sorry shape that there could be a crowded Democratic primary:

Other Democrats considering a run are Florence Mayor Frank Willis and lobbyist Michael Hollings, son of former U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings.

The dynamics make it a great target for Democrats:

“This is a state election, straight out,” notes Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen, a GOP activist.

Democrats tend to fare better in such elections.

“Republicans can’t tie the national party label around their neck. It won’t stick,” says College of Charleston professor Bill Moore.

Republicans are much more open to voting Democratic in state elections.

And Sanford is hurting with his base and may be unable to create enough excitement to win:

As governor, he has rubbed many the wrong way with his antics and behavior. He has failed as a negotiator.

“Obviously, there is a disconnect between the members of the General Assembly and the governor,” says professor Moore.

Sanford also is not a good stump campaigner. He doesn’t excite. [...]

But some Republicans may quietly spread the word among constituents that they could live with Moore as governor.

This could be interesting, consider it on the rader.

Posted at 03:01 PM in South Carolina | Technorati