Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:
I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:
Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:
• IL-Sen: Here's a fairly big-name entrant to the Illinois Senate: Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, who just formed an exploratory committee. Jackson had occasionally been rumored to be interested (to the extent that Jan Schakowksy's internal poll included her, where she got 17% when explicitly substituted for Burris) but hadn't taken concrete steps. Jackson has two demographic positives: with Schakowsky out, she'd be the only female in the race (unless, of course, Lisa Madigan gets in, in which case the game would be over anyway), and she'd be the only African-American in the race who isn't Roland Burris. However, she used to be Rod Blagojevich's press secretary prior to taking over at the Urban League, so the Blago stench may be hard to wash off.
• ND-Sen: All had seemed quiet on the midwestern front, especially after that R2K poll that showed him getting flattened by Byron Dorgan (57-35), but Gov. John Hoeven recently showed at least a peep of interest in running for Senate after all... even if it was just a statement that he was still making up his mind and would decide by September. GOP state chair Randy Emineth said that Hoeven "wants to" run against Dorgan, but we'll need to actually hear from Hoeven.
• NH-Sen: The swabbies at ARG! pointed their spyglasses toward the 2010 open Senate seat in New Hampshire, and find that Rep. Paul Hodes would defeat ex-Sen. John Sununu 40-36. No numbers for the much-hyped AG Kelly Ayotte.
• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: In the face of relentless wooing from GOP Senators, Rep. Dean Heller has set a deadline of June 30 to make up his mind about whether he runs for Harry Reid's Senate seat. (Wait a minute... that's today!) Heller's other options include staying in NV-02 or running a primary challenge in the governor's race -- where the younger Reid (Rory, the Clark County Commission chair) seems to be staffing up for the race on the Dem side.
• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who briefly was running against post-party-switch Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary before dropping out, has endorsed Specter. Not surprising, since Torsella is a big ally of Gov. Ed Rendell, who has pledged his support to Specter.
• CT-Gov: More indications that Ned Lamont is getting serious about running for Governor (probably against incumbent Jodi Rell) in 2010. Lamont is looking at an early-2010 deadline for deciding, but can get away with a shorter timeframe as he can self-fund and won't need a long ramp-up for fundraising.
• NJ-Gov (pdf): PPP takes their turn at polling the New Jersey Governor's race and find about what everyone else has been finding: Chris Christie leads incumbent Jon Corzine 51-41, with Christie benefiting from a 60-26 lead among independent voters. Good news, relatively speaking, for Corzine, though, is that Christie's negatives are rising quickly as he's starting to get defined in the media, up to 43% favorable and 33% unfavorable.
• SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer has publicly floated the idea that he would stand down from running in 2010 if he got to be Governor now, if Mark Sanford would just go ahead and resign (please?). His potential 2010 rivals are looking at this as statesman-like grandstanding, especially since it looks like Sanford is digging in.
• AK-AL: In case there was any doubt, the indestructible Rep. Don Young has announced that he's running for re-election. Young is 76 and in perpetual danger of indictment, but with the state's political talent gravitating toward the Governor's race, may have an easier path in 2010 than in 2008.
• CA-36: Los Angeles City Councilor Janice Hahn has been telling supporters that she's interested in running for Rep. Jane Harman's seat. She doesn't seem to be thinking primary, though; Hahn, for some reason, believes Harman (still under a bit of a cloud from the wiretap incident) is up for appointment to something, maybe Ambassador to Israel, in the Obama administration.
• FL-12: State Sen. Paula Dockery made clear that she won't be running in the 12th; she endorsed former State Rep. Dennis Ross for the job. She seemed to leave the door open to the Governor's race, saying in her statement that "my passion for public policy is in state government."
• IL-07: With Rep. Danny Davis looking to move over to the Presidency of the Cook County Board, Chicago-area Dems are already eyeing the super-safe open seat. Davis's former chief of staff Richard Boykin (now a lobbyist for Cook County) seems to be the first to make his interest publicly known.
• NH-01 (pdf): Manchester mayor (and NH-01 candidate) Frank Guinta is due for the Bad Samaritan Award, as he watched several of his friends (an alderman and a state Representative) beat up another acquaintance in a barroom brawl, ending with the man's leg being broken in seven places, and then immediately left the scene without reporting it to the police. Guinta said he was unaware of the extent of the man's injuries and contacted police at that point. No charges have been filed in the incident; still, not the kind of free publicity a political candidate likes to get.
• NY-03, NY-Sen-B: Rep. Peter King is sounding even iffier than before about running for Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand, having scored a desired slot on the Intelligence Committee.
• NY-23: Investment banker Matthew Doheny anted up with a lot of cash to jump into the Republican side of the race to replace Rep. John McHugh: $500,000 of his own money. Roll Call reports that he'll need the ostentatious display of cash to get anywhere in the candidate-picking process, as Assemblypersons Dede Scozzafava and Will Barclay are both reaching out behind the scenes to party leaders.
• Redistricting: Regardless of what nonsense happens in the New York Senate this session, it's looking more and more like the GOP's toehold on legislative power will be vanquished in post-2010 redistricting, regardless of who controls the legislative redistricting process. Because of growth in the city and declines upstate, 1.2 seats will need to be shifted from downstate to NYC (and, as an added bonus, an extra one-sixth of a seat will shift to the city if the Census Bureau goes ahead and starts counting prisoners according to where they're actually from rather than where they're incarcerated).
• Fusion Voting: Here's one way in which Oregon suddenly became a lot more like New York: the state legislature decided to allow "fusion voting," in which a candidate can run on multiple party lines on one ballot. This will be a boost to minor parties in Oregon, by letting them form coalitions with the major parties instead of simply playing spoiler.
• Fundraising: It's June 30, and you know what that means... it's the end of the 2nd fundraising quarter. If you want to give some momentum to your favored candidates, today's the last day to do it.
• PA-Sen: It looks like the threat of a primary from the left may be having some of the desired effect on Arlen Specter. He's engaged in negotiations on a compromise version of EFCA, and said yesterday that "prospects are pretty good" for such a bill (although it remains unclear what exactly would get cut from the bill).
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand will receive an important endorsement tomorrow: from NARAL. This may help solidify Gillibrand's pro-choice credentials in the face of possible Senate primary challenges from Reps. Steve Israel or Carolyn Maloney.
• DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle, the one guy who can make the open Delaware Senate race interesting, isn't promising anything right now. Castle set a decision-making deadline of "the next two months," though. (Unclear whether that's two real months or two Mark Kirk months.)
• AR-Sen: In the wake of state Senator Kim Hendren's comments about Chuck Schumer yesterday, a more competent sounding Republican has surfaced to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Curtis Coleman, the CEO of SafeFoods (a "food-safety services company," whatever that is) and a close friend of Mike Huckabee, announced formation of his exploratory committee this week. Former US Attorney and Rove protege Tim Griffin may also get in; he's announced a June 1 deadline for deciding.
• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul, moved one step closer to running in the Republican Senate primary (theoretically against Jim Bunning), launching his exploratory committee.
• NY-Gov: Observers are noting that Rudy Giuliani is definitely not looking like a candidate for next year's gubernatorial race. The tipoff is the recent departure of at least three key staff members, including former chief of staff Tony Carbonetti.
• MN-Gov: This should be something of a red flag to Tim Pawlenty: 57% of Minnesotans, according to SurveyUSA, don't want him to run for a third term as Governor. A lost gubernatorial race would basically doom his 2012 presidential aspirations, so this may up the chances of an open seat instead.
• KS-Gov: New Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson appointed a new Lt. Gov., Troy Findley. Unfortunately, Findley promptly announced that, like Parkinson, he won't be running for Governor in 2010, leaving Kansas Democrats with bare shelves in both the open senate and governor's races.
• CA-36: Earlier this week, Marcy Winograd (who got 38% of the vote against Jane Harman in the 2006 Democratic primary) officially kicked off her campaign for a rematch.
• Gay marriage: We're on the precipice of gay marriage in one more state, as New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch confirmed that he was willing to sign it into law. One catch: Lynch wants a slightly different bill, that includes additional language stating that churches aren't compelled to marry anyone they don't want. The legislature is expected to move quickly to add the new language.
• Demographics: Hispanics and Asians are still the fastest-growing groups in America, but their growth rates have slowed down in recent years as the economic downturn has cut into immigration. In particular, Hispanic growth in the Southeast slowed down. This pushes back projections of when the U.S. becomes a minority-majority country, to the 2040s. In other census news, Orange County, Florida (Orlando) became a minority-majority county in the last year (good news for Alan Grayson as he attempts to hold FL-08).
• Redistricting: Utah has an initiative on the table for the 2010 election, proposing an independent redistricting commission (instead of letting the overwhelmingly GOP legislature draw the boundaries). Interestingly, the idea just got a prominent Republican backer: former 11-term Rep. Jim Hansen.
• PA-Sen: Apparently, Arlen Specter's campaign has only received 15 requests for donation refunds so far in the wake of his switch to the Democratic Party. The returned funds only add up to a paltry $15K. (J)
The NRSC has launched a new robocall targeting Specter, by linking him to the NRSC's arch-enemy... George W. Bush? (It replays Bush's 2004 endorsement of then-GOPer Specter.) Apparently, the goal is to soften Specter up among the Dem electorate to lose a Democratic primary to a more reliable Dem, who would then be a little more vulnerable to Pat Toomey in the general... or something like that? This is one of those moments when you can't tell if the GOP is crazy like a fox, or just crazy.
Specter bringing his decades of seniority with him over to the Democratic caucus is angering some key Democrats who get bumped down the totem pole as a result, according to The Hill. Specter could find himself wielding the gavel in an Appropriations subcommittee, or even back in charge of Judiciary if Patrick Leahy takes over Appropriations in 2010.
Specter's switch has the whining flowing among some of the GOP's sourest senators: Jim Bunning says the GOP "coddled" Specter for too long, while Jim Inhofe shows his grasp of GOP dead-ender logic, saying that Specter's fleeing the party is a sign of conservatism's strength and presages a comeback. In much the same way that if my house is on fire, that indicates that its value is about to go up, because it's finally clearing out all that clutter.
• FL-Sen: The DSCC is pulling out all the stops against Charlie Crist, and he hasn't even taken any steps toward getting into the Senate race yet. They've launched a new TV spot (airing in the Tallahassee market) that attacks Crist for leaving Florida in financial disarray to jump to Washington, and attacks his heavy-on-socializing, light-on-work schedule.
• CO-Sen: The GOP's Weld County DA Ken Buck is trapped in the grey area between candidate and not-candidate for Senate; his website is up and running and has a "donate" button, but hasn't filed his official paperwork and denied Monday's reports that he was officially in.
• RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee seems to be having similar problems on just how official a candidate he is, too. His exploratory committee is open and he said he "is" running when appearing on Rachel Maddow on Tuesday, but then issued a release yesterday walking that back, to "my intentions are" to run for governor.
• WI-Gov: The GOPers aren't waiting any longer for Gov. Jim Doyle to publicly announce his re-elections; Milwaukee Co. Scott Walker launched his campaign yesterday. Walker (who briefly ran in the primary in 2006) doesn't have the race to himself, though; last week, Mark Neumann, who represented WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 and then lost the 1998 senate race to Russ Feingold, announced his candidacy, touting his support from Tommy Thompson surrogate James Klauser.
• AL-Gov: Not one but two more Republicans are sizing up the governor's race, although neither one seems top-tier material: Hoover mayor (in the Birmingham suburbs) Tony Petelos, and Bill Johnson, the head of the Alabama Dept. of Economic and Community Affairs. (Johnson has a colorful backstory that wouldn't help him much in the primary.)
• OR-Gov: Local Republican pollster Moore Insight polled potential Dem candidates for governor on their favorables. Ex-gov. John Kitzhaber and Rep. Peter DeFazio posted pretty similar numbers: 49/21 for Kitz, 48/17 for the Faz. (Kitzhaber has higher negatives among Republicans, thanks to all those vetoes he handed out.) Former SoS Bill Bradbury is at 29/10, and Steve Novick, who barely lost the 2008 Senate primary, is at 14/4.
• GA-01: Long-time Rep. Jack Kingston has often been the subject of speculation in the Georgia governor's race, but he confirmed that he'll be running for re-election to the House. Interestingly, he's supporting state senator Eric Johnson in the race instead of fellow Rep. Nathan Deal, but that's because Johnson is a fellow Savannah resident and his son's godfather.
• VA-10: The subject of much retirement-related speculation due to age and a rapidly bluening seat (now R+2), Rep. Frank Wolf confirmed he'll be running for re-election in 2010. He may face state senator Mark Herring or delegate David Poisson.
• OH-18: Rep. Zack Space has been added to the DCCC's defense-oriented Frontline program. Space was the target of an NRCC TV spot earlier, but this isn't so much a question of newfound vulnerability as it's confirmation he's done flirting with a Senate run and committing to his House seat for 2010.
• CA-36: Suddenly embattled Rep. Jane Harman has hired Clinton-era fixer Lanny Davis to help her negotiate the legal and PR minefield she finds herself in, regarding the wiretap imbroglio. 2006 primary challenger Marcy Winograd is revving up her efforts, sensing Harman's weakness. Winograd, who earned 38% in 2006, has begun raising funds for another try.
• NY-20: Republican Jim Tedisco says that he is "not planning" on seeking a rematch against freshly-minted Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy, but refuses to explicitly rule out a run. (J)
• WA-08: One more tea leaf that Suzan DelBene may be left holding the bag in WA-08: State Rep. Ross Hunter, one of the first Dems to crack the GOP stranglehold on the Eastside and a potentially strong contender in WA-08, is running for King County Executive. The already-crowded Exec race is in Nov. 2009, not 2010, but indicates Hunter's interests lie locally, not in DC.
• Votes: The 17 Democrats who voted against the Obama budget are all familiar dissenters, and most of them are in difficult Republican-leaning districts: Barrow, Boren, Bright, Childers, Foster, Griffith, Kratovil, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Taylor, and Teague.
• NY-20 (pdf): Last evening's total from the BoE had Scott Murphy leading Jim Tedisco by 401. With his chances approaching the "statistically impossible" realm, we may reportedly see a Tedisco concession today.
• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman could take a few pointers from Jim Tedisco. The five justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court who'll hear the election contest (two justices who've been actively involved in the count recused themselves) announced that their expedited hearing isn't all that expedited: it'll happen on June 1, to give the parties adequate time to file briefs and replies. In the meantime, that gives Minnesotans more than one more month with just one senator.
• GA-Gov, GA-03: Just one day after his name was suddenly floated for GA-Gov, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland flushed that idea, saying he'll stay in the House.
• PA-Gov: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato was bandied about as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the open governor's race in 2010, but we've heard nary a peep from him on the matter. Apparently, he is in fact interested, as he says he's "laying the groundwork" and expects a formal announcement later in the year.
• TN-Gov: Businessman Mike McWherter made official his candidacy for the Democratic nod in the open Tennessee governor's race. McWherter hasn't held elective office, but benefits strongly from links with his father, popular ex-governor Ned McWherter.
• SC-Gov: Lawyer Mullins McLeod (and apparent scion of a political family, although one that pales in comparison to the Thurmonds or Campbells) announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in the open governor's race. He joins two Democratic state senators Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford in the chase.
• CA-10: Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who previously issued an internal poll showing her leading senator Mark DeSaulnier, has officially jumped into the special election field. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi's entry into the race, splitting the white-guy vote, Buchanan probably feels that her hand has been strengthened.
• CO-03: Rep. John Salazar has drawn a solid Republican challenger in this R+5 district: Martin Beeson, who's the district attorney for Pitkin, Garfield, and Rio Blanco Counties. Blue Dog Salazar has had little trouble with re-election despite the district's lean.
• CA-36: Jane Harman's high-profile role in the still-unfolding wiretap scandal has liberal activists in the 36th, long frustrated by Harman's hold on this D+12 district, wondering if they finally have an opening to defeat her in a primary. Marcy Winograd, who won 38% against Harman in 2006, has been urged to run again and is "thinking about it."
• MI-07: For real? Republicans in DC (read: the NRCC) are telling MLive.com's Susan J. Demas that their top choice to take on frosh Dem Mark Schauer is none other than... ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who was ingloriously defeated in a 2006 primary by wingnut Tim Walberg. Schwarz, who went so far as to endorse Schauer over Walberg last fall, tells Demas that he's not interested in running again. (J)
• NH-02: Democratic New Hampshire State Rep. John DeJoie has formed an exploratory committee for the seat Paul Hodes is leaving open. (D)
• KS-04: Democrats have their first candidate in the open seat in the 4th: Robert Tillman, a retired court services officer, and former precinct committeeman and NAACP local board member. There's more firepower on the GOP side of the aisle in this now-R+14 district, including RNC member Mike Pompeo and state senator Dick Kelsey.
• Redistricting: Republican Ohio state senator John Husted (who will probably be the GOP's candidate for SoS in 2010) has introduced legislation that would totally change the way redistricting is done in Ohio. It would create a 7-member bipartisan commission that would draw both congressional and state district lines (removing congressional district authority from the legislature, and legislative district authority from the 5-member panel that Dems currently control). It remains to be seen, though, whether this proposal would make it past the Democratic governor and state house.
• Nostalgia: Yahoo is shutting down the venerable Geocities. What ever will former Louisiana senate candidate John Neeley Kennedy do? (D)
Rep. Jane Harman, the California Democrat with a longtime involvement in intelligence issues, was overheard on an NSA wiretap telling a suspected Israeli agent that she would lobby the Justice Department to reduce espionage-related charges against two officials of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, the most powerful pro-Israel organization in Washington.
Harman was recorded saying she would "waddle into" the AIPAC case "if you think it'll make a difference," according to two former senior national security officials familiar with the NSA transcript.
In exchange for Harman's help, the sources said, the suspected Israeli agent pledged to help lobby Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif., then-House minority leader, to appoint Harman chair of the Intelligence Committee after the 2006 elections, which the Democrats were heavily favored to win.
Seemingly wary of what she had just agreed to, according to an official who read the NSA transcript, Harman hung up after saying, "This conversation doesn't exist."
Believe it or not, it actually gets worse - much worse. Harman was actually investigated for this previously, but new revelations indicate she got off the hook for the most odious of reasons:
[C]ontrary to reports that the Harman investigation was dropped for "lack of evidence," it was Alberto R. Gonzales, President Bush's top counsel and then attorney general, who intervened to stop the Harman probe.
Why? Because, according to three top former national security officials, Gonzales wanted Harman to be able to help defend the administration's warrantless wiretapping program, which was about break in The New York Times and engulf the White House.
And that's exactly what she did:
Harman, [Gonazles] told [CIA Director Porter Goss], had helped persuade the newspaper to hold the wiretap story before, on the eve of the 2004 elections. And although it was too late to stop the Times from publishing now, she could be counted on again to help defend the program
[Gonzales] was right.
On Dec. 21, 2005, in the midst of a firestorm of criticism about the wiretaps, Harman issued a statement defending the operation and slamming the Times, saying, "I believe it essential to U.S. national security, and that its disclosure has damaged critical intelligence capabilities."
So, to recap: Harman, a member of the Blue Dogs, offered to help get espionage charges reduced against two AIPAC members, in exchange for an unnamed "Israeli agent" (the person on the other end of the call) lobbying Nancy Pelosi to appoint Harman chair of the Intelligence Committee. (Thankfully, Pelosi did not.)
Then, to make things far more ugly, Alberto Gonzales offered to drop the investigation of Harman's Israeli quid pro quo so that she would help defend the Cheney Administration's outrageous warantless wiretapping program, which she had done before and did again with gusto. Hell, you might even call this blackmail. I can't think of much worse than this.
