SSP Daily Digest: 9/28

by: Crisitunity

Mon Sep 28, 2009 at 2:11 PM EDT

• IL-Gov: State Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from exurban McHenry County, was a loud and frequent Rod Blagojevich critic, and he was considering parlaying that into a run in the Illinois governor's primary against incumbent Pat Quinn. Franks just decided against it, though. (He does sound like he's going for higher office in 2012, including a possible run against Rep. Don Manzullo in IL-16, a low-profile wingnut who's gotten a free pass for almost two decades in a district that just went for Obama.) Meanwhile, Pat Quinn got another key union endorsement, from UNITE HERE's Local 1 (giving him pretty much the big union trifecta, having already gotten the SEIU and Teamsters).

• MI-Gov: I can honestly say I didn't see this coming; businessman Rick Snyder, who's been polling in the low single digits in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, won a straw poll this weekend at a confab of party insiders on Mackinac Island. Snyder (who looks like he's positioning himself as the 'moderate' in the race) got 31%, while AG Mike Cox and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard each got 24%.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor just moved its statewide convention from June to late April. This change appears to be due in part to the expected shift in Minnesota's primary from September to August (or earlier), thanks to a new federal law regarding the date by which absentee ballots for the general election must be mailed. The new convention date probably makes life a bit harder for candidates who are currently members of the state legislature, since the legislative session doesn't end until May 17th, 2010. (D)

• OR-Gov: Up-and-coming Clackamas County Chairwoman Lynn Peterson was the subject of some gubernatorial speculation a few weeks ago, but now she's declared that she won't be running for the Democratic gubernatorial nod next year (despite her Facebook page saying otherwise).

• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett got another high-profile (if somewhat stale) endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial contest: Dick Thornburgh, Pennsylvania's former governor and US Attorney General.

• IN-02: GOP St. Rep. Jackie Wolarski (who has earned the sobriquet "Wacky Jackie" for her right-wing views) turned down the NRCC's entreaties for a run against Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2008, leaving them with the woeful Luke Puckett. However, she's sounding more interested about a run in the R+2 2nd for 2010.

• NV-03: Back to the drawing board for the NRCC in Nevada: their touted recruit John Guedry, a deep-pocketed banker who announced his bid last month against freshman Rep. Dina Titus, withdrew from the race over the weekend, citing family concerns. They may turn to former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins instead, who had considered the race. Former state Sen. Joe Heck could be another replacement, but he says he's staying put in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• NY-14: Our condolences to Rep. Carolyn Maloney and her family; her husband, Clifton Maloney, died while on a climbing expedition in the Himalayas, having just summitted the world's sixth-highest peak.

• NY-23: More trouble for moderate GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava on her right flank: the Club for Growth has endorsed her Conservative opponent, Doug Hoffman (although they'd certainly telegraphed their intents, having released a poll showing him making it a 3-way race). Also, Hoffman got another boost among the social conservative set, via an endorsement from Fred Thompson (of 2008 presidential nap race fame). Democrat Bill Owens isn't wasting any time; he's up with his second TV spot of the campaign already.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, the leading GOP candidate to replace Zach Wamp, is claiming that Barack Obama personally called her "everything from racist to terrorist to extremist". Smith, who served as chair of the Tennessee GOP during the last cycle, gained some previous notoriety for taking a hard run at Michelle Obama. The Smith campaign has yet to issue a retraction. (J)

• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, long-serving Democrat in northern West Virginia, has easily dispatched GOP opposition in his R+9 district over the decades. In 2010, it looks like he'll face off against state Senate minority whip Clark Barnes. One glitch: although Barnes grew up in the 1st, his Randolph County residence and almost all of his Senate district are in the 2nd.

• Census: Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah -- feeling the heat from the right in his primary -- is introducing legislation to require the Census to ask a citizenship status question for purposes of apportionment. Such a bill is unlikely to gain any traction in a Democratic-controlled Congress.

SSP Daily Digest: 8/12

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 12, 2009 at 2:20 PM EDT

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd underwent successful surgery for prostate cancer yesterday and is resting comfortably. He'll be back to full activity in a few weeks, probably just in time for the end of recess.

• IA-Sen: Democrats nailed down a candidate to go against Chuck Grassley, although he'll be hard-pressed to make a dent in the well-funded and inexplicably well-liked Grassley. Tom Fiegen, a former state Senator and bankruptcy attorney, will announce his candidacy on Friday. Another Dem, Iowa Democratic Veterans Caucus chair Bob Krause, is already exploring the race.

• NV-Sen: Here's a telling little tidbit from an interview with Rep. Dean Heller, suggesting that he may have just as much of a non-aggression pact with Harry Reid as does John Ensign (or else he just lives in perpetual fear of Reid). When asked if it was best for Nevada if Reid were defeated, Heller's response was a 14-second pause, followed by "Um. My position is that I'm going to support the Republican candidate. If we have a viable Republican candidate, that is going to be my position. So I think that speaks for itself."

• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte made her public debut yesterday (although she maintains she's not a candidate yet, despite having filed her candidacy papers), and shed a little more light on her hitherto-unknown positions on, well, everything. She seems to be running on mostly a law-and-order image, but she did reveal that she's anti-abortion rights and anti-gay marriage.

• NY-Sen-B: With Carolyn Maloney now out of the picture, Bronx-based Rep. Eliot Engel endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand today for re-election. That brings to 12 (out of 26) Dem members of the New York House delegation who've endorsed her.

• HI-Gov: Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who's running for Hawaii governor, ran into a sticky wicket: he won't be able to transfer the $900K in his federal fund to his state fund, according to Hawaii's Campaign Spending Commission. This puts him behind, in the fundraising game, both Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona and possible Dem primary opponent Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, although he's well-connected and should be able to catch up with some effort.

• NJ-Gov: In a revelation that should surprise no one, it turns out that Karl Rove discussed with Chris Christie the possibility of running for New Jersey Governor while Christie was serving in the ostensibly non-partisan position of U.S. Attorney.

• SC-Gov: Democrats may be sensing an opening in the South Carolina governor's race after l'affaire Sanford, as yet another Dem jumped into the scrum: Dwight Drake, an attorney and lobbyist who hasn't been elected before but is a prominent behind-the-scenes Democrat in Columbia.

• UT-Gov: Gary Herbert was sworn in as Utah's Governor yesterday, replacing new Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman. Although Herbert is universally viewed as conservative, he rankled some conservatives by throwing a bone to the state party's moderate wing by picking state Sen. Greg Bell to be Lt. Governor. He now has nine months to prepare for the GOP nominating convention for the 2010 special election, where possible candidates he may face include state Senators John Valentine and Steve Urquhart, state House speaker David Clark, and law professor Kirk Jowers. With Rep. Jim Matheson declining a run, the Dems' next best bet is Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon.

• VA-Gov: Rasmussen takes its monthly look at the Virginia Governor's race. Republican Bob McDonnell leads Democrat Creigh Deeds, 49-41, when leaners are pushed; the 8-point gap mirrors the R2K poll from last week, but is a drop from the 3-point gap in the July Rasmussen poll. Voters still like both of them; McDonnell's favorables are 53/30, while Deeds' are 48/39.

• GA-02: Rep. Sanford Bishop has an honest-to-gosh state Rep. opposing him this time, instead of the usual token Republican opposition: Mike Keown. Bishop should face little difficulty in this black-majority district he's held since 1992, though. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• NY-01: Speaking of Bishops, Rep. Tim Bishop also drew a bigger challenger than he's used to, in the form of wealthy businessman Randy Altschuler, whom the NRCC had been trying to lure into the race. It remains to be seen if Altschuler, who's never run for office before, has any political chops; the NRCC may have been loudly touting him more for his fundraising abilities, as he was a big McCain bundler and can open up his own wallet as well if need be. At any rate, it at least puts this D+0 district onto the map for 2010.

• NY-St. Sen.: It's amazing what being in the majority can do for you: New York State Senate Democrats are now way in the lead in the fundraising, compared with the once-dominant Republicans. Dems have raised $6.9 million so far this year, compared with $2.5 million for the GOP, driven largely by shifts by unions who previously felt the need to play ball with the Republicans in order to avoid getting shut out of the discussion. The GOP still retains a cash-on-hand edge, though.

SSP Daily Digest: 8/11

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 5:19 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: Chicago Urban League president (and former Rod Blagojevich spokeperson) Cheryle Jackson made her entry into the Democratic senatorial primary field official yesterday. However, the Illinois SEIU chapter, one of the state's major unions, came out with an Alexi Giannoulias endorsement today, which, given their resources, moves him closer to having a lock on the nod. I'm wondering if they're announcing in response to Jackson... or to Roland Burris, who keeps popping his head back up.

• KS-Sen: Not much change in the GOP Senate primary in Kansas since we last looked. SurveyUSA finds that Rep. Jerry Moran has a 38-32 lead over Rep. Todd Tiahrt, propelled along by a 78-13 edge in the state's western portion. Moran led by 2 in June and 4 in April.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-16: It didn't register much, at a time when all speculation focused on Rep. Carolyn Maloney, but several months ago Rep. Jose Serrano said he would consider a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand. Yesterday he made clear that he wouldn't get in the race (although he still didn't sound very enthused about Gillibrand), which means that none of her former House colleagues are left planning a primary challenge.

• MN-Gov: Add one more second-tier Republican to the huge pile of prospects for the open Minnesota governor's race: state Senator Mike Jungbauer, a religious rightist from exurban Anoka County, formally kicked off his campaign. He does already have one important endorsement in his corner; he was "called by God" to run.

• NJ-Gov: Today's Quinnipiac poll has a slightly better showing for Jon Corzine, in line with last week's R2K poll, though it's far from time to start talking "comeback." He cuts the lead to 9 points, 51-42, in a two-way poll of likely voters, down from 53-41 in July. More importantly, Corzine trails Chris Christie 46-40 in a three-way that includes independent Chris Daggett (who's up to 7%). Campaign Diaries observes that the centrist Daggett (a former EPA regional administrator) is probably absorbing a lot of protest votes, keeping Democrats and moderate indies who hate Corzine from going over to Christie. If Corzine wins, he'll owe Daggett a big ol' "thank you."

• NY-Gov The NYT reports on growing discomfort by various downballot electeds on the prospect of having David Paterson at the top of the ticket. Both Reps. Michael McMahon and Dan Maffei worry about the effect of Paterson's low approvals spilling over into their own races. Not to worry: although it's buried deep in the story, the Times says that powerful local Dems are pushing Paterson to stand down and make way for Andrew Cuomo -- and that local bigwigs have been tugging at White House sleeves, hoping they'll find a nice appointed position for Paterson soon.

• CA-10: The John Garamendi camp released an internal poll from Tulchin Research giving Garamendi a sizable edge in the upcoming special election: Garamendi is at 31, Mark DeSaulnier is at 21, Joan Buchanan is at 17, Anthony Woods is at 9, and Republican David Harmer is at 5. There's a wrinkle with this poll, though (one that didn't elude the DeSaulnier campaign): it's a poll only of Democratic and decline-to-state voters, but the primary election is an all-party primary with one pool of votes (although under California law, the top Democrat and Republican will advance, not simply the top 2). In response to our inquiry, the Tulchin crew said that polling Republicans as well just wasn't cost-effective, especially since there are six Republicans running and therefore there isn't likely to be much party-line crossing.

In other CA-10 news, Garamendi got another bit of good news: he got the endorsement of both Bill Clinton and Al Gore (he was a deputy Secretary of Interior for part of the Clinton administration). However, a SurveyUSA that only tested favorables for the CA-10 candidates didn't have good news for much of anyone: Garamendi is at 30/34, DeSaulnier is at 22/23, and Buchanan is at 16/25. Only up-and-comer Woods is in positive (if generally unknown) territory, at 14/13.

• CT-04: With presumptive GOP nominee state Senate minority leader John McKinney staying out, not one but two other GOPers got in the race against Democratic freshman Rep. Jim Himes. One was the party's likely #2 choice, state Senator Dan Debicella; the other is Rob Merkle, a political novice but the wealthy owner of a financial services recruitment firm.

• PA-06: Maybe journalist Doug Pike won't have the Dem primary to himself after all, now that Rep. Jim Gerlach is committed to the gubernatorial race. Bob Roggio, the little-known businessman who almost beat Gerlach in 2008, said he hasn't "ruled it out." Also, while there doesn't seem to be anything tangible, there are indications that state Sen. Andy Dinniman, the Dems' highest-profile elected official in the pivotal Chester County portion of the district, is "increasingly rumored to be seriously considering" the race.

NY-Sen-B: Maloney to Bow Out of Senate Race

by: James L.

Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 12:22 PM EDT

Representative Carolyn B. Maloney is expected to announce today that she has changed her mind and will not enter the primary race against Kirsten E. Gillibrand, New York's newly appointed senator.

A person close to Mrs. Maloney, a Democrat from Manhattan, said she made her decision not to run after days of agonizing over the fact that running meant she would have to leave her current job at a point when she had significant seniority in Congress.

Maloney aborting her run clears the last major hurdle for Gillibrand before she clinches the Democratic nomination next year -- and also removes a messy, resource-draining fracas from the long list of issues that Democrats will have to grapple with in 2010.

Good deal.

UPDATE: TAP has the full text of Maloney's statement.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Sen-B

SSP Daily Digest: 7/31

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 1:55 PM EDT

• CT-Sen: Best wishes to Chris Dodd, who has been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and will undergo surgery over the August recess. He said he'll be back at work after several weeks of recuperation at home, and that he still plans to run for re-election in 2010.

• IL-Sen: Add one more GOP Twitter fail to the increasingly long-list. Rep. Mark Kirk, who is also a Naval Reservist, tweeted his location (the National Military Command Center) while on duty. The DoD is now investigating, as it's a problem on two fronts: one, the prohibition against using the media to give away your position, and two, the prohibition against, while on military service, updating a website established prior to the beginning of service. Complicating the legal question even further: it may have been a staffer tweeting on Kirk's behalf. Because, y'know, it's so hard to think up 140 characters of content on your own.

• NY-Sen-B: The confusion over the Carolyn Maloney campaign has reached epic proportions. Yesterday, CQ reported that Maloney had no fixed timeline for officially getting into the Senate primary, but that early August seemed likely. But today, Politico's Glenn Thrush is reporting that Maloney is "leaning heavily against" making the race at all, according to several prominent Dems.

• ND-Sen: The NRSC is flogging a new internal poll which claims Gov. John Hoeven has a 53-36 lead over Sen. Byron Dorgan. Both men are very popular, with Hoeven with an 86% approval and Dorgan with a 69% approval. A public poll from R2K in February found the numbers almost exactly reversed, with Dorgan beating Hoeven 57-35... but Hoeven hasn't taken any public steps to get into the race, so we may never find out who's right.

• AK-Gov: Local pollster Hays Research looked at in-state approvals for Alaska's incoming and outgoing governors, and found Sarah Palin leaving in net negative territory: 47/48. Sean Parnell looks bulletproof for the moment, at 67/8, but, having been in office for less than a week, hasn't had the chance to screw anything up yet.

• TX-Gov: A bit more egg on the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign's face today, as the Austin American-Statesman found that her website had over 2,200 hidden phrases on it designed to steer traffic, including "rick perry gay." (This wasn't mere meta-tagging, but blind keywords invisibly put into the site's code, something of a search engine-optimization no-no.) A spokesperson said they'd remove "rick perry gay," although it sounds like the other 2,199 phrases stay.

• KS-04: Businessman Jim Anderson got into the overflowing GOP field in KS-04 to replace retiring Rep. Todd Tiahrt. He seems like he might get a little lost in the shuffle, in a field that already includes local GOP heavyweights RNC committeman Mike Pompeo and state Sen. Dick Kelsey, along with state Sen. Jean Schodorf, who recently began exploring the race.

• MO-04: Ike Skelton, who's held down the fort for Dems in dark-red central Missouri since time immemorial, has drawn a more serious opponent than usual (not hard, since his usual opponents are nobodies or no one at all). Vicky Hartzler is a former state Rep. who has also written a book called "Running God's Way," apparently a how-to guide to campaigning for Christian right candidates. CQ also mentions several other still-in-office legislators who could also take on the 77-year-old Skelton (especially if he hears the siren song of retirement): state Rep. Tom Self and state Sen. Bill Stouffer.

• DCCC: The DCCC has responded with its own ad offensive on the health care front, a day after the RNC targeted 60 districts. The DCCC's radio buy and robo-call package is a bit more targeted, focusing on 8 GOPers (not coincidentally, maybe their 8 most vulnerable incumbents running in 2010): Michele Bachmann, Joseph Cao, Charlie Dent, Dan Lungren, Thad McCotter, Erik Paulsen, Dave Reichert, and Pat Tiberi.

• Where Are They Now?: Former GOP Rep. Anne Northup found her way into the Obama administration, as a commissioner on the Consumer Product Safety Commission. This initially seems very odd -- she already lost KY-03, so there's no sense in appointing her to facilitate a Dem pickup -- but it's because the Senate GOP leader has a say in picking a Republican for one of the five commissioners, and Mitch McConnell opted to give the job to his long-time protege, who, having lost three races in a row, is probably finished with electoral politics.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/27

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 2:16 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias had his official campaign launch this weekend, where he name-dropped Barack Obama at every opportunity.

• NY-Sen-B: Is this a sign that Rep. Carolyn Maloney may be backing away from the Senate race, or is she just sidetracked by the chaos in the House? She had been scheduled to announce her primary campaign against Kirsten Gillibrand today or tomorrow, but now Maloney tells the New York Post that the timetable is no longer in effect, and didn't say anything about a new timetable, other than to say that "This week we are confronting health care."

• AK-Gov: If the world seems a slightly lighter place today, it's because it's our first Sarah Palin-free day in a while; she turned the keys to the state over to Sean Parnell yesterday. I guess now I and other members of the media can, in honor of the American soldier, quit makin' stuff up about her.

• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe polled Deval Patrick's prospects and found he's still in trouble. (The poll was conducted on the Globe's behalf by often-clueless UNH, so take with the requisite spoonful of salt.) His job approvals are 35/56, and he narrowly loses head-to-heads with both prospective GOPers, 41-35 to Charlie Baker and 41-40 to Christy Mihos. If Dem-turned-Independent treasurer Tim Cahill gets in the race as planned, though, the Republicans fade into the background, as Cahill seems to vacuum up the anti-Patrick votes. Patrick and Cahill tie both matchups: 30-30-20 with Baker, and 31-31-18 with Mihos.

• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine picked his Lt. Gov. running mate: state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, a 74-year-old granny from Bergen County noted for pushing for ethics reform. This comes instead of, as rumored, Apprentice winner Randal Pinkett. Those in the know seem to think that Corzine may have been motivated to pick her in order to emphasize ethics in the wake of the federal arrests of a swarm of lower elected officials, including some Corzine allies. The New York Times presents a dark picture of Corzine's campaign, framing the corruption sweep as one more blow that he can't handle, and actually starts speculating on what Dem might replace Corzine at the top of the ticket should be back out (it mentions Newark mayor Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone). The NYT says Corzine still has no plans to bail, but state machine boss George Norcross is making no secret that he wants Corzine out of the race.

• VA-Gov: Barack Obama will be coming to Virginia to stump for Creigh Deeds, with both a public rally and private fundraiser on Aug. 6. This comes as GOP candidate Bob McDonnell has been seeking to increasingly go after Deeds on national issues, as at their first debate where McDonnell challenged Deeds on cap-and-trade and EFCA. Deeds may need some outside help, as he's had trouble nailing down some of the local big names, most prominently former Gov. Douglas Wilder.

• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos says she'll officially announce tomorrow that she's running for the Democratic nod in the now-open 10th. She had been planning to run for AG until Lisa Madigan surprised everyone by deciding to run for another term. Instead, she joins a top-drawer field with state Sen. Michael Bond and 06/08 candidate Dan Seals already in.

• NY-23: We'll have to wait until tomorrow for Democrats in the 23rd District to have even a plan for picking a candidate, let alone have a candidate, as they seem to have not had much of a Plan B in the event that Darrel Aubertine didn't run. The Dems say they've received about 18 applications; Watertown Daily Times gotten confirmations from 06 nominee Michael Oot, 94 nominee Danny Francis, attorney Stuart Brody, attorney Keith Caughlin, and state assistant inspector general for Medicaid John Sullivan that they are among the 18. Meanwhile, Jim Kelly (no, not the quarterback) sounds like he's gearing up to run on the Conservative line.

• VA-05: Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode made it official that he won't be running against Tom Perriello to get his seat back. (Now maybe he can stop running around the district handing out oversize checks.) Speculation turns to GOP state Senator Rob Hurt and delegate Rob Bell, who don't have the name rec or fundraising power of Goode, but don't have the polarizing reputations either.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/22

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 1:56 PM EDT

• IL-Sen/Gov: Here's an explanation for why Chris Kennedy has been dawdling on declaring for the Illinois Senate primary: he's considering whether or not to jump over to the Governor's race instead. This seems very odd... not that he'd have a good chance in either race, but it seems like he'd have a better shot in a primary in an open seat race against Alexi Giannoulias, who has some vulnerabilities, than against Pat Quinn, who's fairly popular and has the benefits of incumbency. Apparently Giannoulias's fundraising scared him off.

• MO-Sen: Here's an interesting tidbit out of Missouri, suggesting that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is getting less and less likely to run in the GOP primary. Jeff Roe, who ran Steelman's 2008 campaign, has started working for Rep. Roy Blunt. Blunt still faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Chuck Purgason, though, but he doesn't pose the same level of threat that Steelman would.

• NH-Sen: This is a big surprise, as he's been pouring a lot of money into advertising (for his STEWARD organization, though, not as a candidate) and starting to build a staff. Anti-tax businessman Fred Tausch announced today that he won't be running in the GOP Senate primary after all (or for anything, including the House). Considering that he was lobbing bombs at AG Kelly Ayotte just a few days ago, this is a sudden change of heart. Former Board of Education member and 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne may still provide a challenge from the right, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Last night was the vaunted Bill Clinton/Carolyn Maloney fundraiser, which pulled in about $300K for Maloney's House account. Meanwhile, the Albany Project has an interesting catch in this race. It turns out that there was one question from the internal poll in May that gave Maloney a 34-32 lead over Kirsten Gillibrand that didn't get released to the public, and only came out in that City Hall News profile from a few days ago: "Asked whom they would vote for if they knew Gillibrand had the support of Schumer and Obama, people chose Gillibrand over Maloney 50-24."

• IA-Gov: A fifth candidate officially got into the GOP field in the Iowa governor's race yesterday: little-known state Rep. and pastor Rod Roberts, who represents a rural part of western Iowa. Roberts polled a whopping 1% in a poll last week by the Iowa Republican blog of the GOP primary field; the poll found Bob Vander Plaats leading the field with 46%, trailed by Chris Rants at 16%, and Paul McKinley and Christian Fong each at 3%. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Chet Culver defeats Vander Plaats 48-39 and Rants 46-36.

• NV-02: Ooops, back to square one in the 2nd. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg, who said she'd run against Rep. Dean Heller in 2010, has backed out, saying she needs to focus on the school board for now instead.

• NY-23: The NRCC has gone on the air in the 23rd, launching pre-emptive TV attacks on state Sen. Darrel Aubertine before he's even a declared candidate for the special election, for voting for new taxes in the state Senate. Meanwhile, word has leaked (perhaps from GOP rival Matt Doheny's camp) that moderate Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was in fact under consideration for the Democratic nomination, but that they were scared off by unpaid tax problems associated with her brother's business (for which she's listed as the COO).

• VA-11: Home inspection company owner Keith Fimian has decided on a rematch with Rep. Gerry Connolly in the now-blue 11th. Fimian, who can self-fund, lost the 2008 open seat race to Connolly, 55-43.

• NY-LG: A New York judge put the kibosh on David Paterson's appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lieutenant Governor, issuing a temporary injunction to stop it, saying the state constitution does not appear to permit appointment to fill a vacancy in that position. Still, even if the appointment never goes through, it looks like it may have succeeded for Paterson, in terms of forcing Pedro Espada's hand and breaking the state Senate deadlock.

• OH-AG: As was previously leaked, former Senator Mike DeWine announced today that he'll run for state Attorney General. He'll face off against Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray.

• Fonts: Ever wondered about the font that defined the Obama campaign in 2008? Here's a profile of that "uniquely American" sans-serif typeface, Gotham.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/20

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 1:48 PM EDT

• NV-Sen: The Las Vegas Review-Journal's newest poll finds that John Ensign's numbers continue to slip. His approval rating is 31%, down from 39% last month (post-scandal, but before news of his parental payoff) and from 53% pre-scandal. Only 34% think he should resign, though.

• NH-Sen: Businessman Fred Tausch launched a subtle attack against likely GOP primary opponent Kelly Ayotte over the weekend, accusing "the governor, the attorney general, and legislature" of putting the state on the path toward an income tax.

• NY-Sen-B: Ooops. Rep. Carolyn Maloney was caught using the N-word in an interview with City Hall News. She was quoting someone secondhand, but still sounds bad out of context.

• NC-Sen: Guess who's a member of the Run, Elaine, Run! Facebook group that's trying to get Elaine Marshall to run for Senate? Elaine Marshall! Now I don't know if that's a tea leaf that she's interested or just a friending-someone-to-be-polite situation, but it's interesting. (H/t possumtracker1991.)

• NJ-Gov: The New York Times reports that Jon Corzine, in the wake of a costly divorce and a big hit to his portfolio, is having raise campaign funds from contributors like a mere mortal. His goal is $15 million from donors, on top of no more than $25 million of his own money. (That's compared to the $60 million he spent on his 2000 Senate race.)

• NM-Gov: Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez, who we mentioned last week, went ahead and just full-on into the GOP primary for the open governor's race in New Mexico, skipping the exploratory phase. Meanwhile, investment advisor and National Guard brigadier general Greg Zanetti, who for most of the was the only declared GOP candidate although without seemingly getting much traction, dropped out of the race, citing family concerns.

• PA-Gov: Auditor Jack Wagner confirmed on Friday in a TV interview that he'll run for Governor in 2010. A formal announcement will come later, he says, but he's still the first Democrat to sort-of-kind-of pull the trigger.

• NH-01: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has had a nose for bad news in the last few weeks, although "unpaid sewer bills" doesn't sound quite as bad as "bar brawl..." y'know, unless you're running as the "fiscal responsibility" candidate. For the second time, Guinta has failed to stay current on the sewer taxes on an apartment building he owns in Manchester (while, at the same time, he can afford to shore up his weak fundraising with a $20,000 personal loan).

• NY-23: This is poorly sourced and slightly incoherent, but a local GOP blog is reporting that Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine did, in fact, get in the race for the NY-23 special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. (UPDATE: The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that the Democratic county chairs in the district have extended their deadline for candidates to express their interest in the race to Thursday, July 23rd at 5pm. Reading the tea leaves, it seems that the county chairs are eager to give the nomination to Aubertine, if he wants it.)

• OH-16: Buried deep in a story about friendly local teabaggers protesting Rep. John Boccieri's cap-and-trade vote are the names of a couple potential GOP candidates in the 16th, a race that has escaped much of any scrutiny so far. Named are former Canton mayor Janet Creighton and businessman Jim Renacci, who owns the Columbus arena football franchise.

• KY-Lt. Gov: It's never to early to start thinking about 2011. Steve Beshear chose his running mate for his re-election campaign (as current LG Dan Mongiardo won't run again, as he plans on being Senator at that point); he'll run with 20-year Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/17

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 1:35 PM EDT

• NY-Sen-B: Harry Reid weighed in on the New York Senate primary, endorsing Kirsten Gillibrand, calling her a "rising star in the Democratic caucus." Meanwhile, Joe Trippi, who's been working for the Carolyn Maloney campaign (for which he received $10K in the second quarter), got busted for one of blogging's cardinal sins when posting at HuffPo: not disclosing a paid relationship with a candidate.

• AK-Gov: Sean Parnell isn't even Governor yet (he takes over on the 26th), and would-be rivals are already sizing him up. The former state House Speaker, John Harris, announced that he'll run against Parnell in the 2010 GOP primary. Which may seem odd, since Parnell is nowhere near as polarizing as predecessor Sarah Palin... but that may be exactly what's motivating the more combative Harris, as he may think the inoffensive Parnell is something of a pushover, as seen by Parnell's inability to close the deal against corrupt Don Young in the 2008 GOP House primary.

• MN-Gov: The field keeps growing, as two more Republicans made it official in the last couple days that they're candidates for the gubernatorial nomination next year: state Senator David Hann and former state Auditor Pat Anderson.

• NY-Gov: AG Andrew Cuomo's mouth may be saying that he's not running against David Paterson in next year's gubernatorial primary, but his wallet says otherwise. Cuomo raised $5.1 million in the last six months, which more than doubles up on Paterson, who raised $2.3 million in the same period.

• CO-04: The media war over cap-and-trade continues in CO-04 as well as in VA-05; the Environmental Defense Action Fund (paid for by green energy companies) is running a thank-you ad on TV in favor of Rep. Betsy Markey's cap-and-trade vote. She's already had a thank-you TV ad from Americans United for Change run in her favor, and been the target of NRCC robocalls as well (but no TV from them, at least yet).

• FL-10: More bad PR for Rep. Bill Young, whose bad fundraising quarter suggests he might be looking to cash in his chips. Young had to kill a $4 million earmark for St. Petersburg defense contractor Conax, after Conax was raided by federal agents several days ago. Conax has been a frequent recipient of the largesse of Young, the ranking Republican on Appropriations, to the tune of $28.5 million in earmarks since 2005. (Perhaps not coincidentally, Young received $123,000 in contributions in the last two years from defense contractors for whom he's seeking earmarks this  year.)

• FL-13: With Rep. Vern Buchanan facing big legal questions over sketchy campaign finance practices, Dems need to have someone credible on deck here to capitalize in case Buchanan implodes. Looks like they've found a credible challenger: pastor and former Bradenton city councilor James Golden.

• MN-06: With local heavyweight state Sen. Tarryl Clark jumping into the Democratic field, 2008 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg (who came within 3 points of unseating Rep. Michele Bachmann) is making noises that he may go all the way to the primary regardless of what Clark does. In most states, that wouldn't be the least bit surprising, but remember that Minnesota picks its DFL nominees by nominating endorsing convention prior to the primary and it's highly unusual to see contested primaries. With former UM regent Maureen Reed clearly also a serious candidate (based on her last fundraising quarter), this looks like it'll be dramatic.

• MS-03: So maybe you were wondering what was happening a year ago when thirty-something GOP rising star Rep. Chip Pickering, who'd been considered a likely successor to Trent Lott's Senate seat, instead of going for that or even running for re-election, simply dropped out of politics altogether. Well, turns out he was given an ultimatum by his mistress of choosing between her or politics (which, in rural Mississippi, would require continuing his sham marriage to his wife) -- and, somewhat unpredictably, he chose the mistress. The kicker? Pickering was, at the time, a resident of the now-infamous C Street townhouse, making him a roommate of John Ensign and ex-roomie of Mark Sanford.

• NY-23: Just a reminder, in case you were thinking of running for Congress: today is the deadline for Democratic applicants for the nomination in the open seat race in NY-23 to make their intentions known. Still no word on whether or not state Sen. Darrel Aubertine is planning to take the plunge or not.

• OH-AG: We finally have some confirmation about what "statewide" office former Sen. Mike DeWine was planning to run for. It's been leaked that next week he'll announce a run for Attorney General (and not Governor). He'll face Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray, who took over in mid-term from Marc Dann.

Poll Roundup for 7/16

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 5:19 PM EDT

• NJ-Gov (pdf): Monmouth finds Chris Christie leading incumbent Jon Corzine 45-37 among likely voters (43-37 among RVs), with independent Chris Daggett pulling in 4%. That looks better than the Quinnipiac poll from Tuesday, but it's a drop from the last Monmouth in April, where Christie led 39-35 among registered voters. Also troublesome: they ask whether Obama's upcoming visit and endorsement will have any effect on how to vote, and 70% say it would have no effect.

• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen polls the Democratic primary in New York's senate special election for the first time, and finds Carolyn Maloney with a 33-27 edge over Kirsten Gillibrand, although 9% opt for "some other candidate" (presumably Jonathan Tasini, although some might just holding out for someone better). Both have high favorables: Gillibrand is at 49-25, while Maloney is at 44-24. They also looked at the NY-Gov Democratic primary, and found Andrew Cuomo whomping David Paterson, 61-27.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP's latest suggests it's time for someone in North Carolina to legally change his name to "Generic Democrat." GOP incumbent Generic Republican Richard Burr leads Generic Democrat only 40-38 (after trailing G.D. 41-38 last month). Turning to actual human candidates, Burr leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 40-31 and attorney Kenneth Lewis 42-31. Burr also shows a small uptick in his approval rating, 36-29, maybe the first time this year his "approves" have exceeded the "don't knows" (at 35%).

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry's lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Texas governor's GOP primary is growing. He holds a 46-36 lead, while he led only 42-38 in May. Hutchison may be having second thoughts about giving up her day job.

• VA-Gov: Finally, Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor's race, and like the other most recent polls here, Dem nominee Creigh Deeds seems to have come down from his post-primary bump and it's settled down into a very close equilibrium with a tiny advantage for GOPer Bob McDonnell. McD leads 44-41, while Deeds was up in their previous poll last month, 47-41. Both men are well-liked; McDonnell's favorables are 50-27 and Deeds' are 49-35.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/16

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 2:38 PM EDT

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they're still "lousy." He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won't run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway's primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning's dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.

• NH-Sen: One more indicator that there's still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn't going to be working for Ayotte. He's been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.

• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who's planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he's interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).

• NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn't get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor's race. Here's a newly interested potential candidate, though, who's at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She's the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state's second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.

• NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there's also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore's daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won't run.

• PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat... but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it's happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn't clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he's likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach's former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele's name has been floated, although she's already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike's early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still "eyeing" the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).

• VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn't fit in James's fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.

• Demographics: Two interesting reads you'll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more "seculars," and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the "culture wars." And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that -- unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational -- Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts' voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you're represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you're reading SSP, chances are that you aren't), this would be a great piece to forward to them.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/15

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 2:32 PM EDT

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer "that Jew" when he couldn't think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as "this new minority judge." Don't confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who's the one who thought you should "get shots" before going down to southeast Arkansas.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk -- who's had some past problems with the space-time continuum -- has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he's been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada's other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can't count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood's political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won't run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue's job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let's just say we should be glad she isn't up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that's the worst individual performance of anyone they've polled this year except for Roland Burris!

• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who's running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can't really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle's tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn't been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He's joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that's been linked to the teabagging movement) on their "Patients First Tour" in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit 'eject,' he's starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he'll announce his campaign plans for "statewide office," without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor's race. Does Ohio have a statewide "dogcatcher" position?

• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/13

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 13, 2009 at 3:13 PM EDT

• NH-Sen: The Nashua Telegraph points to some skepticism from the conservative wing of the GOP about newly minted candidate Kelly Ayotte; apparently, her joining Gov. John Lynch in urging communities to apply for stimulus funds makes her not sufficiently fiscally conservative for some in the rightosphere, who are wondering if they've got another Susan Collins on their hands here. With the presumably-more-conservative businessman Fred Tausch and former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne still checking out the race, it seems like she may not have a clear primary path. Sensing some trouble here, the state party establishment is pushing back, rolling out ex-Sen. John Sununu to offer some promises that she's a conservative, including that he "believes" that she opposes abortion rights.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has apparently been holding off on her Senate primary announcement so that she won't drive Bill Clinton off from her upcoming fundraiser. Clinton has vowed neutrality in the likely primary with Kirsten Gillibrand, and everyone is taking pains to point out that the fundraiser is for Maloney's House account and intended as a 'thank you' for her support of the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2008. (Of course, she'll still be able to transfer her House funds to a Senate race.)

• CO-Gov: Strange that the Colorado GOP is throwing all its top talent at Gov. Bill Ritter while leaving the Senate race with the second-stringers. Today 33-year-old state Senate minority leader Josh Penry made it official: he's running for Governor, setting up a big primary collision with ex-Rep. (and Penry's former boss, when he was a staffer) Scott McInnis.

• NJ-Gov: Dueling leaks of internal polls from the New Jersey governor's race, as expected, paint very different pictures. The Corzine camp offers a poll showing a 4-point lead (42-38) for Chris Christie when factoring in independent Christopher Daggett (who polls at 4%). The RGA, however, has a poll giving Christie a showy lead of 15 pts. The polls were both conducted before Corzine hit the airwaves with an attack ad focusing on Christie's ethical troubles.

• SC-Gov: The State, Columbia's newspaper, takes a look at why, all of a sudden, Mark Sanford seems poised to survive his tango de la muerte, despite his dire straits before Sarah Palin stole the show. It's broken down helpfully into bullet points: his wife is defending him for the first time, state law enforcement investigations found he broke no state laws, and state party leadership opted for censure rather than asking him to resign.

• MI-St. Sen.: If you haven't seen Menhen's diary rating our prospects in each of the upcoming Michigan State Senate races in 2010, take a peek. (The diary got some notice over at the DLCC's blog.) With the entire Senate up for re-election and control over Michigan redistricting in the balance, this is one of the key legislative battles in 2010... and with term limits hitting hard, there are only 8 incumbents running, with a whopping 30 open seats, so this is very much a wide-open battle.

• CfG: Roll Call takes a look at the Club for Growth under the new leadership of ex-Rep. Chris Chocola and finds, unfortunately for us, a slightly saner version of the CfG that seems more interested in playing in the general election rather than mucking up the primaries... although they did just put out that call for primary challengers against the 8 cap-and-trade defectors. For Tom Cole fans, the former NRCC head gets in some nice digs at the CfG.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/7

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 2:51 PM EDT

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning, via his regular teleconference with reporters, reminds us that he's still running for Senate. Bunning also thinks that he won't outraise SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $600,000 in the 2nd quarter) for the quarter, but it doesn't matter because Grayson won't stay in the race if Bunning stays in too.

• OR-Gov: Here's a surprise: Democratic rising star state Rep. Brian Clem suddenly made his presence known in the Oregon governor's race, launching an exploratory committee and filling up his coffers with a $500,000 loan from his mother-in-law. The 37-year-old Clem, who has represented part of Salem since 2006, implied that he wouldn't pull the trigger on a run, though, if former Gov. John Kitzhaber got into the race.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford may get to keep his job after all (thanks in part to Sarah Palin creating a distraction). The state GOP voted yesterday to censure Sanford over his doomed tango, rather than call for his resignation.

• HI-01: Roll Call takes a quick look at who might run for the seat being left behind by Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Top of the list is Ed Case, a Blue Dog who used to represent HI-02 but gave up his seat for an ill-fated primary run against Sen. Dan Akaka and pissed off a lot of the Democratic base along the way. They also cite state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, former state House majority leader Kirk Caldwell, state Democratic Party chair Brian Schatz, and also Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who's currently exploring the governor's race but conceivably could switch races if he doesn't get any traction in the primary against Abercrombie. Also, we can't rule out Republican Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou, who seems well-thought-of but faces a steep climb given the state's lean.

• IL-07: CQ provides a similar laundry list of potential candidates in IL-07, assuming Rep. Danny Davis leaves an open seat to run for President of the Cook County Board instead. Davis's former Chief of Staff Richard Boykin tops the list, but there's also state Reps. LaShawn Ford and Karen Yarbrough, state Sen. Rickey Hendon, and Aldermen Dorothy Tillman and Ed Smith. (No mention of any Republicans here, unsurprising since it's D+35.)

• NY-03: Here are some folks who'd especially like Rep. Peter King to Beat It, following his Off the Wall remarks disparaging the nonstop coverage of Michael Jackson. They've started "Michael Jackson Fans Against Peter King" on ActBlue and have already raised several thousand dollars for whoever steps up to run in the 3rd.

• NY-14: With Rep. Carolyn Maloney looking more likely to follow through on her Senate primary challenge, state Sen. Liz Krueger, whose turf closely overlaps the 14th, has been getting a lot of encouragement to run for the open seat. Krueger sounds politely interested, saying "I've never been in Congress so I don't know if it's less frustrating. But I suspect pretty much any job in the United States of America would be less frustrating than Albany in the last three weeks."

• NY-23: A potentially strong candidate for the GOP nomination in the upcoming NY-23 special election has taken himself out of consideration: Assemblyman Will Barclay. Unfortunately for us, this may make the primary path easier for moderate GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who would be a tougher general election foe; the more conservative Barclay, remember, was the loser of the state Senate special election to Darrel Aubertine last year. Two other minor GOPers added their names to the list as well: YMCA director Andrew Bisselle and businessman Bart Bonner.

• OH-15: His candidacy was already well in the works, but GOP former state Senator Steve Stivers made it official today that he's seeking a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who barely won the open seat in 2008. Stivers may have an opening in 2010 if there's less Obama-driven college turnout in this district dominated by Ohio St., and no pro-life independent candidate siphoning votes from his right flank.

• TN-09: Burned-out Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton seems to have a pattern and practice of delaying his planned resignations whenever things don't quite go right for him. Herenton, who'd planned to resign in order to devote himself full-time to his primary challenge to Rep. Steve Cohen, pushed back his resignation date (planned for July 11) to July 30, citing some unfinished items of business.

• House: The Hill throws together an interesting catch-all of ten "dark horse" House races, one of which is already threatening to be top tier (TX-10), one of which features an intriguing Dem primary (FL-02), and some of which are interesting because of changing demographics (TX-32) or changing political tides (all three Dem seats in Arkansas).

• DGA/RGA: In keeping with the sense that the real battlegrounds in 2010 are going to be the gubernatorial races, the DGA and RGA are both raising like gangbusters. The DGA raised $11.6 million in the first half of the year, a record for them, but the RGA nosed ahead of them, raising $12.2 million.

• Census: A coalition of Colorado local governments joins New York's legislature in laying out its own funds to help assist the Census Bureau in putting together an accurate count by reducing undercounting. While Colorado isn't likely to gain or lose a House seat in 2010, it's still important in terms of securing federal funds, and with much of the state's growth coming among Latinos, the risk of undercounting is high.

• Campaign Finance: Florida's Republican SoS, Kurt Browning, has decided not to appeal a federal court's ruling that found a state law regulating 527s was unconstitutional. With major implications for the Florida governor's race, now 527s can operate without disclosure requirements on who they are and who funds them. (Florida has strict $500 limits on individual contributions, so 527s are especially important there.)

• Trivia: Wondering who the last Governor to resign in mid-term to focus on a presidential run was? New York's Nelson Rockefeller, in 1973. He never made it to the presidential run, although he did wind up briefly serving as Gerald Ford's fill-in vice-president.

• DSCC: Friend of SSP and once-and-future DKos editor Arjun Jaikumar (f/k/a brownsox) is not just the DSCC's new media guru - he's also up for The Hill's 50 Most Beautiful in DC. Vote for the good-looking bastard by sending an email. (D)

SSP Daily Digest: 7/2

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 3:04 PM EDT

• NY-Sen-B: Marist dribbles out the Senate half of its newest New York poll today (Gov was yesterday), and it finds a super-tight race in the Dem primary in wake of yesterday's sorta-kinda entry by Carolyn Maloney: Maloney leads Kirsten Gillibrand, 38-37 (compared with a 36-31 Gillibrand lead in May). Gillibrand wins against both George Pataki (46-42, up from a 46-38 deficit last time) and Peter King (48-32). Marist doesn't do general election head-to-heads with Maloney, although for some reason they poll a GOP primary between Pataki and King (51-36 for Pataki) despite the decreasing likelihood that either of them run.

Also of interest: Bill Clinton will be appearing at a Maloney fundraiser scheduled for July 20. Clinton isn't wading into the race with an endorsement at this point, though; this was in the works long before Maloney announced her run, as payback for Maloney's 2008 primary support for Hillary Clinton, and he also headlined a Gillibrand fundraiser in March.

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey got another endorsement from one of the more conservative members of Pennsylvania's House GOP delegation: PA-09's Bill Shuster.

• AL-Gov: The Democratic field in the governor's race in Alabama seems to be solidifying; the last question mark, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, announced that she won't be running. With a lot of establishment figures waiting on the fence to see if an alternative to Rep. Artur Davis and Ag Comm. Ron Sparks shows up, expect them to start choosing sides soon. Davis, meanwhile, has been staffing up with some key political players, adding Joey Ceci and David Mowery to his team (who managed the successful campaigns of freshman Reps. Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright).

• CA-Gov: Sure, California's an expensive state, but Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman have reported gigantic hauls even by the Golden State's outsized standards. Brown raised $7.3 million in the year's first half, while Whitman raised $6.5 million. Steve Poizner and Gavin Newsom raised huge sums and are still far behind -- Poizner raised $1.3 million and loaned himself another $4 million, while Newsom raised $1.6 million, much of it online.

• MN-Gov: The tradmed seems to be intent today on talking up Norm Coleman's next logical step as being running for Governor of Minnesota, although Minnesota reporters and politicians in the know are trying to point out the sheer ridiculousness of that idea. (If Norm's going to be doing any running soon, it's running away from the FBI, as they investigate his links to Nasser Kazeminy.)

• RI-Gov: The Democratic primary for the open Rhode Island Governor's seat was looking to be a three-way slugfest, but Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts yesterday announced that she would run for re-election instead of for Gov. Although she had started staffing up for the race, she couldn't have been encouraged by poll numbers which showed her at a disadvantage with likely opponents Treasurer Frank Caprio and AG Patrick Lynch.

• SC-Gov: Gov. Mark Sanford seems to have taken a few steps backwards this week. A snap poll from yesterday by SUSA now finds 69% of South Carolinians saying resign, as opposed to 28% saying stay. 63% say they have "no trust" in Sanford. Here's an interesting red flag: only 20% say Lt. Gov/party boy Andre Bauer is "completely prepared" to become Governor, with 38% saying "somewhat prepared" and 34% saying "not prepared."

• WI-Gov: Real estate developer and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who held WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 before losing narrowly to Russ Feingold, announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday. Neumann's entry had been widely anticipated; he'll face off against Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary.

• CA-45: With Rep. Mary Bono Mack having defected on the cap-and-trade vote, the rightosphere has been calling for her head. Their favored replacement, term-limited state Senator Dennis Hollingsworth, quickly said "no" to a primary challenge, so their wish-list has turned to ex-state Sens. Jim Battin and Ray Haynes and ex-state Rep. Bonnie Garcia.

• IL-14: A second GOP challenger got into the race against Rep. Bill Foster, although this guy doesn't sound like he'll pose much of a threat to Ethan Hastert for the nom. Jeff Danklefsen hasn't run for office before and is "maintenance manager for a property management company."

• LA-03: The Hill reported last week that Democratic efforts to find a replacement to Rep. Charlie Melancon have focused on state Rep. Gary Smith, who was going to run for the open seat in 2004 but deferred to Melancon. State Rep. Fred Mills was also interested, but state Rep. Damon Baldone, who might be the highest-profile candidate, is about to run in a special election for a state Senate seat and is unlikely to follow that with a U.S. House run.

• PA-06: With the 2nd quarter just wrapped up, look for lots of financial reports to start getting leaked. Here's a nice place to start: Doug Pike, in the 6th, is looking at a haul of over $500K for the quarter, thanks a recent D.C. fundraiser starring Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy.

• WI-08: We're building up a backlog of Republicans trying to take on Rep. Steve Kagen. Businessman Reid Ribble jumped into the field, joining Door Co. Supervisor Marc Savard and Brown Co. Supervisor Andy Williams.

• WV-02: With some prodding from the DCCC, Gov. Joe Manchin's former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, is looking into challenging Rep. Shelly Capito Moore in the Charleston-based 2nd.  

NY-Sen-B: Maloney Sets Launch Date

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 1:02 PM EDT

Rep. Carolyn Maloney has decided to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 Democratic primary, refusing to bow to party leaders who want her to stay out, the Daily News has learned.

"She's definitely decided to run," said a senior Maloney adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity. "She's in it."

Maloney, a congresswoman since 1993 for Manhattan's East Side and a slice of Queens, will make an official announcement in two weeks, the adviser said.

New York's NY1 confirms, via Maloney senior adviser Paul Blank, that Maloney "has decided to" pull the trigger.

RaceTracker: NY-Sen-B

NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: First Test of Gillibrand v. Maloney

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 1:18 PM EDT

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 23
Carolyn Maloney (D): 27
Undecided: 44
(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 44 (4)
Peter King (R): 28 (28)
Undecided: 26 (28)

Carolyn Maloney (D): 42
Peter King (R): 26
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±2%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 20 (17)
Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (62)
Undecided: 20 (18)
(MoE: ±3%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 34 (32)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 52 (54)
Undecided: 7 (8)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (47)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 39 (41)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±2%)

Quinnipiac sees a slight uptick for Paterson - a trend? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani had an op-ed in the NYT yesterday (and has been carving out a slightly higher profile for himself of late by complaining, along with everyone else, about the mess in Albany). We speculated that a recent NYT op-ed by Tom Suozzi was a signal that he's ready to start ramping things up. Perhaps the same is true here.

In the Senate department, the first test of Gillibrand vs. Maloney shows what almost all NY-Sen-B primary polls have shown - that the players are still mostly unknown throughout the state, and that Peter King would be doomed. Recognizing that King is not much of a foil, Gillibrand of late has been raising the specter of a Pataki run in her fundraising emails. While the NRSC, as CQ notes, may want him to run, George P. hasn't made any affirmative moves in that direction yet.

More discussion in mkpowers' diary.

RaceTracker: NY-Sen-B | NY-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 6/17

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jun 17, 2009 at 1:54 PM EDT

• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson is still treating Jim Bunning as undecided about running for a third term, despite the crotchety Bunning's many protestations, Abe Simpson-style, that he ain't dead yet. While saying that he has "no plans to run against him right now," Grayson says he'd have a better answer to the question "after next month, when Bunning makes a decision...." Still, he says "I don't suspect that (having to run against Bunning) would be a problem," if Bunning stays in the GOP primary. The remarks were made at a poorly-attended (as in less than 50) Grayson fundraiser in Corbin.

• MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt can't catch a break. No sooner than professor Tom Schweich bailed out and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman's message discipline came completely unglued, along comes yet another likely primary challenger: state Senator Chuck Purgason, who formed an exploratory committee. It sounds like he'll be going at Blunt from the right (Purgason is known for his "country-western fashion sense and iron-clad fiscal conservatism," and said we must "stop the 'changing' of America").

• NC-Sen (pdf): Good polling news out of North Carolina, according to PPP: Generic Democrat leads Richard Burr, 41-38. (There's still the little matter of nailing down a candidate, of course.) Only 29% overall (and 49% of Republicans) think he deserves another term, while 49% say give someone else a chance. Burr's approval is 34/35, with a 31% "not sure," which is still crazily high for a sitting senator.

• NH-Sen: Senatorial speculation for the GOP in the Granite State has turned to AG Kelly Ayotte. (AG is an appointed position in New Hampshire; Ayotte was appointed by ex-Gov. Craig Benson, but retained by John Lynch.) Still, everything seems to be on hold until fall, when the younger John Sununu is supposed to make known his senate intentions. Dean at Blue Hampshire observes ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (another possible Senate, or NH-02, candidate) getting a little testy about having to wait for Sununu Jr. to make up his mind (or for Sununu Sr. to make up Jr.'s mind).

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney keeps ratcheting up her attacks on Kirsten Gillibrand, focusing increasingly on character and credibility. She hit Gillibrand's "evolving" stances and said "She's, to my knowledge, never passed anything. She spends all her time fund-raising. I spend my time doing things." Meanwhile, Gillibrand rolled out the endorsements of 52 of the 62 Democratic Party county chairs in New York. That seems huge, but only half the population of New York state is accounted for, as they have yet to endorse in New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx, Richmond, and Suffolk Counties.

• CA-Gov: Rep. John Campbell from CA-48 in Orange County endorsed Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner a few months ago, but he recently dropped that endorsement and then this week endorsed ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman instead. Campbell's explanation is that when he first endorsed Poizner, Whitman wasn't in the race yet and he had never met her. (This Campbell, of course, is not to be confused with ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, who's the third wheel in the GOP gubernatorial primary.)

• LA-03, LA-Sen: GOP state Rep. Nickie Monica, who has recently met with officials at the NRCC, is telling his contacts that he's planning on running against Democrat Charlie Melancon. Meanwhile, faced with the prospect of a strong challenge and the looming uncertainties of redistricting, Melancon is still giving a race against GOP Sen. David Vitter a "pretty hard" look, according to a "Democratic insider." (J)

• NY-23: Republican state Senator Joe Griffo, who's based outside the district in Rome but whose turf overlaps part of the 23rd, said he won't run in the special election. For the Dems, veteran Danny Francis (who ran twice against McHugh in the 1990s) said he'll seek the nomination. Dem state Senator Darrel Aubertine shot down speculation that he'd fielded a call from Barack Obama about the seat, although he did cop to talking to DCCC recruitment guru Steve Israel about it.

• OH-15: '08 candidate/ex-state Sen. Steve Stivers says that he'll make up his mind on a rematch against Mary Jo Kilroy by the 4th of July, but Ohio Republicans apparently feel very confident that he'll jump into the race. (J)

• PA-06, PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach has set a deadline of "this summer" for deciding whether to jump into the 2010 governor's race -- although he certainly seems to be moving to do so, positioning himself message-wise as the only GOPer who's dealt with fiscal issues in a legislature. In the meantime, GOP power brokers are getting antsy that Gerlach's delay in announcing his plans are complicating their efforts to hold this D+4 seat (although GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is already warming up in the bullpen, having opened an exploratory committee).

• Votes: The war supplemental passed the House 226-202 yesterday, with 32 Democrats and 5 Republicans breaking ranks. The GOPers fall under the 'moderate' umbrella: Cao, King, Kirk, Candace Miller, and John McHugh (for whom a 'no' vote would be awk-ward, as the incoming Sec. of the Army). The Dems are generally the most liberal few dozen, although with a few eyebrow-raising exceptions (Eric Massa, maybe most notably): Baldwin, Capuano, Conyers, Doggett, Donna Edwards, Ellison, Farr, Filner, Grayson, Grijalva, Honda, Kaptur, Kucinich, Barbara Lee, Lofgren, Massa, McGovern, Michaud, Payne, Pingree, Polis, Serrano, Shea-Porter, Sherman, Speier, Stark, Tierney, Tsongas, Waters, Watson, Welch, and Woolsey.  

SSP Daily Digest: 6/16

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 16, 2009 at 2:11 PM EDT

• FL-Sen: The movement conservatives continue to square off against the establishment in the GOP Florida Senate primary. Jim DeMint, probably the most conservative senator by most metrics and with a sizable grass roots following, just endorsed Marco Rubio.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk still refuses to say what exactly he's doing, but he promises that he's raising money "for a big campaign." (His last few House races have been big-money affairs, so who knows what that means?)

• KS-Sen: Dems seem to be moving closer to actually having a candidate in the Kansas Senate race: former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger, who formed an exploratory committee.

• KY-Sen: State Senate President David Williams had publicly contemplated getting into the GOP primary against Jim Bunning, even meeting with the NRSC, but he said yesterday that he won't run. He refused to officially endorse anybody, but said he was most excited about philanthropist and former ambassador Cathy Bailey among the possible candidates.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has set a July 4th deadline for deciding whether or not to run in the Senate primary. Meanwhile, Kirsten Gillibrand picked up two endorsement from groups with a lot of on-the-ground firepower: New York State United Teachers and (cue the Phase 5 wingnut freakout) ACORN. Rep. Peter King, on the GOP side, set his own deadline, saying he'll decide whether or not to run by Labor Day. Also today is word that Barack Obama had King in his sights as he cut a swath through Northeast Republicans by offering him a job -- in his case, ambassador to Ireland, which King declined.

• PA-Sen: Looks like that Act of God never happened, because Rep. Joe Sestak is actively staffing up for a Senate primary challenge to Arlen Specter.

• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd having been in the hospital for nearly a month now and not planning an immediate return to the Senate, there have been some behind-the-scenes discussions of what happens if he can't return to office. West Virginia state Democratic party chair Nick Casey is seen as the consensus choice to serve as placeholder until the 2010 election, if need be.

• AZ-Gov: This can't be helping Jan Brewer (the Republican SoS who ascended to the governor's mansion to replace Janet Napolitano) as she considers whether or not to run for a full term: she's in a standoff with her Republican-controlled legislature over the budget, almost single-handedly leaving the state on track to a government shutdown.

• FL-Gov: David Hill, a top GOP pollster in Florida, is leery about the chances for AG Bill McCollum (who's already lost statewide twice, and now is trying to transparently reboot himself as a Charlie Crist-style moderate) in the gubernatorial election. He says he's been actively encouraging state Senator Paula Dockery to follow through on jumping into the primary.

• KS-Gov: Sen. Sam Brownback got some good news: SoS Ron Thornburgh decided to get out of the GOP primary, leaving Brownback a clear path. (Not that Thornburgh was going to pose much of a threat, which is why he got out.) And finally a Democratic state Senator, Chris Steineger, seems to be getting into the race for Team Blue -- although he sounds like a bit of a loose cannon, having pissed off most of the state party establishment at various points.

• MI-Gov: George Perles, the 75-year-old former football coach at Michigan State and currently an MSU trustee (which is a statewide elected position) announced that he's running for the Democratic nomination. He joins Lt. Gov. John Cherry in the field, who seems to have most of the establishment backing so far.

• MN-Gov: Contrary to earlier reports, Rep. Michele Bachmann hasn't quite ruled out a bid for Governor in 2010, what with Tim Pawlenty stepping down. She expresses her ambivalence with some nice Harlequin romance novel phrasing: "If my heart moved in the other direction and I had the tug, I'd do it. I wouldn't be afraid to run for office. I just don't feel the tug."

• NV-Gov: Another GOPer is sniffing out the governor's race (kind of a no-brainer, given the world of shit Jim Gibbons is in): Reno mayor Bob Cashell, who was last seen endorsing Harry Reid a few weeks ago. Of course, there's the risk that if too many credible GOP challengers get in, Gibbons has a better shot at surviving the primary via a badly split vote... although facing a wounded Gibbons in the general would probably be the best scenario for the Dems.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/11

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 3:08 PM EDT

• FL-Sen: The Club for Growth doesn't get involved in Senate primaries very often (RI in 2006 and NM in 2008 being the exceptions), but the fact that Marco Rubio met this week with the CfG and they admitted to being "impressed" suggests that they might get involved here. The CfG may still be reluctant to get involved, though, simply given the unlikely return on their investment with the long odds Rubio faces against Charlie Crist.

• NY-Sen-B: Writer Jonathan Tasini, who got 17% in a challenge from the left to Hillary Clinton in the 2006 Senate primary, announced that he's going to run against Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 primary. It's still as unclear as ever if Rep. Carolyn Maloney will officially join Tasini in the hunt (and Tasini getting in may make it more difficult for her, seeing as how Tasini would eat into her share of the purer-than-thou vote), but Maloney seems to be testing out various attack lines against Gillibrand in a prerecorded interview with NY1 that will air tonight. Meanwhile, Gillibrand got another prominent endorsement today, although this one may help her more in the general than with the liberal base: former NYC mayor Ed Koch.

• UT-Sen: Somehow Bob Bennett has become flypaper for wingnuts lately. He's pulled down his fourth primary challenger, businessman and conservative activist James Williams.

• NJ-Gov: The Philadelphia Inquirer looks at a new conundrum for both Jon Corzine and Chris Christie: picking running mates. (This is the first New Jersey gubernatorial election since the creation of the Lt. Gov. position, a need made apparent by the resignations of both Christie Todd Whitman and Jim McGreevey.) This looks like an exercise in ticket-balancing, both in terms of gender and geography. State Senator Diane Allen from the Philly burbs in Burlington Co. (who declined the chance to run in NJ-03) may have the inside track for the GOP nod, although (paging open seat fans) one other name that gets a mention is NJ-02's Rep. Frank LoBiondo.

• OK-Gov: No surprise here, but AG Drew Edmondson today officially launched his exploratory campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor. Edmondson faces Lt. Gov. Jari Askins in the primary, giving the Dems two strong candidates facing a steep climb uphill against Oklahoma's ever-darker shade of red.

• DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle said today that he won't seek the newly-open position of ranking member on the Education and Labor Committee, saying he wanted GOP stability on the panel. While this doesn't help us know whether he's planning to run for the Senate or retire, it does send a pretty clear signal the 69-year-old Castle isn't staying in the House.

• FL-24: This race is barely a couple days old, and already it's one of the most heated in the nation. Once Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel announced her run, some local Democrats (although not the Kosmas camp) began pointing to a 2007 Orlando Sentinel article discussing some of her odd actions and outbursts. That brought on a counterattack from state GOP chair Jim Greer, who attacked freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas directly for gutter politicking.

• NV-03: The NRCC hasn't had much luck on the recruiting front in this D+2 district in the Las Vegas suburbs to take on freshman Rep. Dina Titus. Local banking executive John Guedry looks willing to step up to the plate, though, saying he's "seriously considering" it. Other possible GOPers include former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins and former state Controller Steve Martin.

• SC-01: With Linda Ketner turning down the rematch against Rep. Henry Brown, all eyes have turned to state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis as a potential Dem nominee. He said he'll make a decision "sometime in July."

• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen is getting fundraising help from an interesting source, and still one of the most powerful forces in Memphis politics: former Rep. Harold Ford Sr. At first this seems odd, since Ford campaigned against Cohen and in support of his son, Jake Ford, in the 2006 general election (where Ford was running as an independent). However, Ford Sr. is a long-time foe of Cohen's 2010 primary opponent, Memphis mayor Willie Herenton, so that would tend to explain it all.