SSP Daily Digest: 10/14

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 2:51 PM EDT

• CT-Sen: How sadly transparent a play to the party's base is this? Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who in the two years prior to his 2006 defeat was the 5th most liberal Republican in the House, is now a teabagger. He says he's attached an actual bag of tea to his pocket copy of the Constitution.

• FL-Sen: In an effort to have no more George LeMieuxs, there's a bipartisan effort afoot in the Florida state legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies in Florida will be filled by fast special election rather than by appointment. State Sen. Paula Dockery, who may be running for Governor soon, is the Republican co-sponsor.

• IL-Sen: David Hoffman, the former Inspector General of Chicago (and frequent monkeywrench in that city's machine), has released an internal poll showing that state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while starting with a sizable lead, doesn't have a mortal lock on the Democratic Senate nomination. Hoffman's poll finds Giannoulias at 26%, with former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson at 12 and Hoffman at 7, leaving 55% undecided. On the GOP side of the aisle, Mark Kirk continues to shuffle to the right as he faces some competition in his own primary: he continues to defend his flip-flop on the cap-and-trade vote that he voted for in the House and would vote against in the Senate, but also says that he'd keep in place the military's Don't Ask Don't Tell policy, saying "Keeping that all out of the workplace makes common sense."

• MA-Sen: In case there was any doubt AG Martha Coakley was running under the mantle of the establishment's candidate, she unleashed a torrent of endorsements yesterday, including about half of the state legislature (78 representatives and 16 senators, including both chambers' leaders), as well as many mayors and labor unions.

• MO-Sen: Joe Biden continues to ramp up his fundraising efforts on behalf of 2010 candidates; he'll be appearing at a Robin Carnahan fundraiser in St. Louis tomorrow. And on Friday, he'll appear in Nevada with Harry Reid to tout the stimulus.

• NV-Sen, Gov: On the off chance that John Ensign decides to spare us all the embarrassment and resign before 2010, Gov. Jim Gibbons says that he wouldn't appoint former AG Brian Sandoval to the job (despite that getting Sandoval out of the way would make his own chances of surviving the gubernatorial primary somewhat better). Gibbons also says he wouldn't appoint himself (since that would just mean likely defeat in the primary in the ensuing 2010 special election).

• OH-Sen: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher picked up an endorsement from Rep. John Boccieri of the Canton-area 16th District today. Boccieri joins Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson in endorsing Fisher in the Dem primary; the remaining six Dems in the state's delegation haven't picked sides yet.

• OR-Gov: Not one but three possible new entrants in the Oregon gubernatorial race, although I can't see any of them getting anywhere. On the Dem side, former Hewlett-Packard executive Steve Shields says he'll announce on Thursday that he's getting into the Democratic primary field. He wasn't at the Carly Fiorina levels of management (which, uh, may actually be a good thing) and doesn't bring a personal fortune to the race, but he has hired some pricey staffers already. On the GOP side, very large, very slow, very white former Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley is interested in the race (after having declined the NRCC to run in OR-05). No one is sure where exactly he fits in ideologically in the GOP; at any rate, here's hoping he's a better campaigner than he was a free throw shooter. And out on the left, Jerry Wilson, the founder of Soloflex, is going to run under the Oregon Progressive Party banner. If the general were likely to be closer, a third-party lefty with his own money would seem threatening, but so far, with John Kitzhaber in, the race isn't shaping up to be close.

• VA-Gov: Al Gore will be appearing on Creigh Deeds' behalf on Friday, although it'll be at a private fundraiser and not a public appearance.

• FL-08: With the surprising decision of former state Sen. Daniel Webster to beg off from facing Rep. Alan Grayson, all of a sudden the floodgates have opened -- and not in the way you'd expect. Prospective candidates are now actively running away from the race, starting with state Rep. Steve Precourt, who was supposed to be Plan D but said he won't run and will go for re-election to his state House seat instead. This was followed by wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who had previously gotten into the race and promised to spend $200,000 of his own money, but then mysteriously dropped out yesterday. Another rumored rich guy, Tim Seneff, already begged off last week -- which means that 28-year-old real estate developer and South Florida transplant Armando Gutierrez Jr. may be the last GOPer standing -- and even he sounds like he's having problems launching his campaign. What kind of mysterious powers does Alan Grayson have here? (Well, other than many millions of his own money and a willingness to spend it...)

• FL-19: It's been revealed that Rep. Robert Wexler's new job will not be in the Obama administration, but rather as president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. The special election date won't be set until Wexler's resignation has been made official, though.

• IN-02: It's official: state Rep. "Wacky" Jackie Walorski will be taking on Rep. Joe Donnelly in the 2nd, bringing the full might of the teabaggers' movement down upon him.

• IN-08: Also in Indiana, the Republicans lined up a challenger to Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who's gotten more than 60% of the vote in both his elections in this Republican-leaning seat. Larry Bucshon, a surgeon, is a political novice, but would seem to bring his own money to the race.

• NV-03: In Nevada's 3rd, it looks like former state Sen. Joe Heck won't have the Republican primary field to himself. Real estate investor Rob Lauer is getting in the race and says he'll invest $100K of his own money in the campaign.

• NY-23: Politico has some encouraging dirt on the special election in the 23rd: Republican Dede Scozzafava is dangerously low on cash, and that's largely because the RNC has declined to get involved in the race. Scozzafava has spent only $26K on TV ads and recently had to pull down an ad in the Syracuse market; by contrast, Dem Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman have spent $303K and $124K on TV, respectively. (Discussion underway in conspiracy's diary.) Adding further fuel to the GOP/Conservative split is that Mike Huckabee will be appearing in Syracuse to address the NY Conservative Party. Huckabee hasn't actually endorsed Hoffman, but the timing can't exactly be a coincidence.

• NY-29: This slipped through the cracks over the weekend; after a cryptic e-mail that led to some hyperventilating about whether Eric Massa wouldn't run for re-election, he announced at a press conference on the 10th that, yes, in fact, he will be back. Massa faces a challenge in 2010 from Corning mayor Tom Reed.

• ME-Init: A poll from PanAtlantic SMS points to the anti-gay marriage Question 1 in Maine going down to defeat (meaning that gay marriage would survive). With gay advocacy groups learning from their California mistakes last year and going on the offensive with ads this time, the poll finds the proposition losing 52-43.

• Legislatures: Democrats lost two legislative seats in special elections last night, a state House seat in Tennessee and a state House seat in Oklahoma. It's a bigger deal in Tennessee, where Dem Ty Cobb widely lost to GOPer Pat Marsh in his effort to succeed his brother (losing 4,931 to 3,663); the GOP now holds a 51-48 numeric edge in the House, although it sounds like the Dems will keep controlling the chamber for now. In Oklahoma, Republican Todd Russ won with 56% en route to picking up a seat left vacant by a Democratic resignation, moving the GOP's edge in the state House to 61-39. Both were rural districts with Democratic registration edges but extremely Republican tilts as of late, where historic Democratic downballot advantages are drying up.

• NYC: After looking kind of vulnerable in the previous SurveyUSA poll, mayor Michael Bloomberg bounced back in yesterday's poll. He leads Democratic city comptroller William Thompson, 55-38.

• King Co. Exec: Also from SurveyUSA, a troubling look at the King County Executive Race, where the stealth Republican candidate Susan Hutchison leads Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine, 47-42. This is the first time county executive has been a nonpartisan race, and you've gotta wonder how many people are unaware of Hutchison's Republican past (for her to be polling this well in such a blue county, it would seem that she picked up a fair number of votes from suburban moderate Dems who voted for state Sen. Fred Jarrett or state Rep. Ross Hunter in the primary and who may be loath to see another Seattlite like Constantine get the job). This race, to be decided in November, may be something of a canary in the coal mine, as it puts to the test the seemingly new Republican strategy of running blonde 50-something women with little partisan track record, having them steer clear of social conservatism and mostly focus on anti-tax platitudes (as seen in NV-Sen and CO-Sen, and NH-Sen as well if you disregard the "blonde" part).

SSP Daily Digest: 10/8

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 3:10 PM EDT

• NC-Sen: Not much change in the newest PPP look at the North Carolina Senate race, although Richard Burr might be benefitting a bit from broader Republican momentum. Burr's approval is still a paltry 36/35, but he's beating Generic Dem by 45-34 now (he lost that race 41-38 in June). He beats named Democratic opponents by at least 10 points, including Rep. Bob Etheridge 44-33 and SoS Elaine Marshall 44-32.

• NV-Sen: This is not the headline you want for the launch of your campaign in Nevada, where support of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump is something akin to support for syphilis: "Yucca Dump Backer Runs for Senate." The dump backer in question is Sue Lowden.

• KS-Gov, Sen: Nowhere is a bigger recruiting disaster for the Dems than Kansas, where they don't have anybody lined up for the open seats for either Senate or Governor. However, it now sounds like state Dem party chair Larry Gates is expected to enter the gubernatorial race. The Senate race is a bigger question mark, although state Treasurer Dennis McKinney hasn't exactly ruled it out.

• MD-Gov: Bill Clinton is doing some fundraising for someone not named Kendrick Meek. He'll headline a fundraiser this week for Gov. Martin O'Malley (a Hillary endorser in 2008). O'Malley has yet to draw a noteworthy opponent for 2010.

• FL-08: Although the GOP is waiting around for state Sen. Daniel Webster to make up his mind on a run, another less-known Republican figure is charging straight into the race: 30-something real estate developer Armando Gutierrez Jr., who's expected to announce his candidacy today. Gutierrez, via his father (who was spokesman for the Elian Gonzalez family during that bit of nastiness), is well-connected in the Cuban community. (Although, with the exception of ex-Sen. Mel Martinez, there's not much of a Cuban political community in the Orlando area.)

• HI-01: State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa got a boost today, with an endorsement from EMILY's List. This will give the progessive Hanabusa a nationwide fundraising profile to go against moderate ex-Rep. Ed Case in the open seat primary.

• MN-01: GOP State Sen. Julie Rosen is considering a race against Rep. Tim Walz in the rural 1st District. Rosen, however, is a prominent moderate, and she might be on the losing end of a GOP intramural fight, much as happened to state Sen. Dick Day in the 2008 primary.

• NY-15, Gov: Weird rumors were going around last week that the dual dilemmas of David Paterson and Charlie Rangel would be solved by Rangel stepping down and Paterson being given the Democratic nomination by party bosses in the ensuing special election, giving him a nice permanent job in NY-15 to pry him out of the Governor's Mansion. Well, yesterday Paterson said thanks but no thanks.

• NY-29: This is kind of cryptic: Rep. Eric Massa says he'll be making an important annoucement on the 10th. It may just be an announcement of his re-election, but it's strangely worded; I'll leave it to you to parse the verbiage.

• MT-St. Sen.: Legal trouble for the Montana state Senator who was behind the wheel in the drunk boating accident that injured Rep. Denny Rehberg and several others. Greg Barkus was hit with three felony charges for his role in the accident.

NRCC Puts 70 Dems on Notice

by: James L.

Mon Aug 03, 2009 at 10:42 PM EDT

That's a big fat, honkin' list of incumbents, including several that haven't seen a competitive race in years -- or ever (Boren, Skelton, the Arkansas delegation, Matheson, Pomeroy, Kind, and Boucher, to name just a few). Many of these races probably won't produce competitive contests, but there's absolutely no downside for the NRCC to be putting these incumbents on notice -- not only will the targets being painted on these members' backs have the potential to affect legislative votes, it helps to promote the idea that the NRCC is preparing for a big wave in their favor in 2010. (One thing's for sure, if we have to worry about David Effin' Wu next year, we'll be preparing for life in the minority again.)

Now, what makes a challenger "legitimate", you ask? That's a good question. I define legitimacy as something that must be earned -- whether it's through an electoral track record or a demonstrated ability to fundraise (or self-fund), or some combination of both. In other words, just because the NRCC has met with some random businessman and asked him to challenge his local congressman, it doesn't mean that the challenger has established himself as legitimate until he's coughed up a quarterly filing with the FEC. Let me put it this way: for every Richard Hanna (the guy who nearly beat Mike Arcuri last year), there are a dozen or more Luke Pucketts or Carl Mumpowers. It's just a lot harder at this point in the game to separate the wheat from the chaff, so our methodology is not to list a challenger without a record of electoral success as "legitimate" until they have demonstrated their ability to raise the dough. (And no, raising phat loads of cash through BMW Direct, like Bill Russell does in PA-12 does not count as a legitimate means of fundraising in our book.) The NRCC would no doubt disagree pretty strongly with my chart in some places, but I already feel that I'm being overly generous by granting OR-04 candidate Sid Leiken, who has had some pretty severe fundraising difficulties, "legit" status.

So, many of these districts marked with an "N" have challengers that have yet to prove the merit and mettle of their respective candidacies. There's no doubt that many of these Ns will turn into Ys by the time the year's over, but the GOP still has a lot of work to do. The GOP also has a stock of credible candidates considering bids in many of these "unchallenged" districts (FL-08, LA-03, and VA-05, in particular), so some of these holes will be easier to fill than others.

Also interesting is who is not listed on such an expansive list as this -- guys whom the NRCC spent a lot of time targeting last cycle like Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) stand out as conspicuous absences, especially considering the number of extreme longshots thrown into the mix.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/1

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 2:33 PM EDT

• OH-Sen: Car dealer Tom Ganley announced his candidacy for the GOP primary for the open Senate seat. (I thought he'd already announced on April 2, but I guess he needed to remind the media of his existence.) Ganley owns 38 dealerships, so he's not just your average used car dealer; he vows to self-fund significantly in his uphill fight against Rob Portman.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota's Independence Party seems determined to field a major candidate in 2010's ultra-confusing gubernatorial race, and at the top of their wish list is ex-Rep. Jim Ramstad. Ramstad's name has occasionally been linked to the race as a Republican, but he may be too moderate to make it out of the activist-dominated nominating process. Ramstad's popularity would make him one to watch in the general, but he'd be laboring under the IP label, whose candidates (including moderate Dem ex-Rep. Tim Penny, who ran for Governor in 2002) have had trouble getting out of the 10-15% range this decade.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another poll of the New Jersey governor's race, and while it still has Jon Corzine losing to Chris Christie, I'm going to file this in the "good news" column, as it has Corzine down by only 6, with Christie under 50%: 45-39. Interestingly, New Jerseyites seem to understand that the state has become fools gold to Republicans: despite their preferences, they still think Corzine will win, 46-38. Corzine also has a campaign appearance scheduled for July 16 with someone who's actually maintaining a 62% approval rating in New Jersey (which would translate into about 105% approval in a normal state): Barack Obama. Which, I think, is the first in-the-flesh appearance Obama has made on behalf of any candidate since getting elected.

• NY-Gov: Maybe I'm feeling extra charitable today, but I'm also going to file yesterday's Marist poll in the "good news" column, because it actually shows David Paterson beating someone: he tops feeble ex-Rep. Rick Lazio 41-40 in a potential matchup. Of course, he still loses to everyone else, whether Andrew Cuomo in a primary (69-24) or Rudy Giuliani in the general (54-37, although that's also an improvement from May). In case you're wondering how a Cuomo/Lazio matchup would go, Cuomo would win 68-22.

• SC-Gov: Well, maybe publicly proclaiming that your mistress is your "soulmate" and that you've had run-ins with other women (but never crossed "the sex line") isn't the best way to keep your job. After it looked like Mark Sanford was successfully digging in for the last few days, the tide seems to be turning: Columbia's The State says that 12 (of 27) state Senate Republicans have signed a letter to Sanford asking him to resign (including state Sen. Larry Grooms, who's running to replace Sanford and would suffer having to run against LG Andre Bauer as an incumbent), with 4 more on the record as supporting it but not signing it, or leaning in that direction; Jim DeMint also asked Sanford to pack it in. While the Columbia and Charleston papers haven't called for resignation, the News in Greenville yesterday joined the Spartanburg Herald-Journal (the twin cities of the state's bible belt) in publishing an editorial doing so.

• NY-23: Looks like moderate GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who has attracted the interest of both parties in the NY-23 special election, is going full-speed-ahead on the GOP side. She told supporters she'll be "aggressively seeking her party's nomination."

• NY-29: Corning (pop. 11,000) mayor Tom Reed announced that he'll run against freshman Rep. Eric Massa in 2010. Reed seems to be running as an out-and-proud moderate, with the Main Street Partnership expected to support him. The NRCC has identified him as a leading recruit but hasn't endorsed him, with several other candidates reportedly still exploring the race. (For what it's worth, Corning is the hometown of Amo Houghton, former Corning Glass CEO and popular GOP moderate who held this seat for decades.)

• PA-15: I'm starting to like Bethlehem mayor John Callahan more and more, as it's come out that in 2005 he proved he can match Rahm Emanuel F-bomb-for-F-bomb. Callahan's response to Emanuel's needling that "Are you tired of being fucking mayor yet?" was "It's better than being a fucking congressman." (The only reason this is relevant today is that the NRCC is now using this incident to argue that he's now disqualified from becoming a congressman.)

• TN-03: Former GOP state chair Robin Smith made it official, that she's running to replace Zach Wamp in the 3rd. She had previously quit her party job to focus full-time on exploring the race, so no surprise here; Smith is the likely GOP frontrunner.

• NRCC: The NRCC wasted no time in launching ads to go after the potentially vulnerable House Dems who voted yes on cap-and-trade. Rep. Tom Perriello is the recipient of the dread TV ad this time, while they also took out radio spots and robocalls against Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, Bruce Braley, Betsy Markey, Vic Snyder, Baron Hill, Mary Jo Kilroy, Alan Grayson, Zack Space, Bart Gordon, Debbie Halvorson, John Boccieri, and Ike Skelton.

• Votes (pdf): The Hill has a handy scorecard arranged by district lean while showing how many times vulnerable Dem representatives have broken ranks on 15 important bills. The biggest defector, unsurprisingly, is Bobby Bright, who flipped 13 out of 15 times. (Compared with Chet Edwards, in an even more difficult district but who defected only twice.) The guy who stands out like a sore thumb, though, is Joe Donnelly, who defected 8 times in IN-02, a district that Obama actually won, 54-45.

• MS-St. House: Democrats held the line in a special election in Mississippi state House district 82, as Democrat Wilber Jones held the seat. This is an African-American majority seat, but attracted some attention because the GOP ran a credible African-American candidate, Bill Marcy... but he still went on to lose, 66-34. Dems hold the edge in the House, 75-47.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/12

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 2:36 PM EDT

• FL-Sen: Here's an endorsement from a key player for Rep. Kendrick Meek: he was endorsed by Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who's recently been associated with possibly running in FL-25 or for Lt. Gov. next year. Another interesting Meek tidbit that just came out: Meek has gotten more tobacco industry money than anyone else in the 2010 election cycle (more than, say, Jim Bunning or Richard Burr). Meek has close ties with the Tampa-based cigarmaking industry.

• OH-Gov: What's that? An endorsement from a puny mortal like Manny Diaz? Screw that, because John Kasich just got an endorsement from Chuck Norris. (Which is odd, because I thought the fact was that Chuck Norris didn't endorse politicians; politicians endorse Chuck Norris.) Ted Strickland was reportedly last seen running in terror on the shoulder of I-70, trying to get out of Ohio before sunset.

• CA-03: A second credible Dem has gotten into the race against the newly-vulnerable Rep. Dan Lungren in this R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs. Bill Slaton, director of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (and overseer of the electrial grid for 1.5 million people), filed to enter the race, joining confusingly-named fellow Dem (and Elk Grove city councilor) Gary Davis.

• CT-04: The GOP has landed an interesting challenger to go against freshman Rep. Jim Himes: 24-year-old Will Gregory, a "young, fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republican" activist who applied for a White House job during the Bush administration and, when asked to name two administration policies he agreed with, couldn't provide an answer. State Senate minority leader John McKinney also seems likely to get in the race for the GOP and would bring a bit more, um, gravitas.

• NY-29: Tom Reed, the mayor of Corning, New York, announced that he won't run for a second turn but that he was looking at another public service opportunity that he couldn't be specific about, but that sounded suspiciously like running in the 29th against freshman Rep. Eric Massa.

• FL-Ag. Comm.: Ordinarily even we at SSP wouldn't get so far down into the weeds as to post results of a poll of the GOP primary for the Florida Agriculture Commission race, but the results are too unbelievable to pass up... unbelievably funny, that is. The idea that the guy who used to be #3 on the House leadership ladder would try to demote himself to Florida Agriculture Commissioner is odd enough, but Rep. Adam Putnam is trailing a state Senator, Carey Baker, 26-17, in that race.

• NY-St. Senate: As everyone sits and waits to see whether state Senator Hiram Monserrate should stay or go (he's vacillating on his coup participation, meaning the whole thing turns on him now), two interesting new developments. One is that the coup may lead to ouster of Dem leader Malcolm Smith and his replacement with John Sampson, who apparently has a better relationship with the dissidents. Also, there's buzz (though nothing confirmed) that Barack Obama himself has been on the phone with not just Monserrate and Pedro Espada, trying to get them back into the fold, but also with Darrel Aubertine (although it's unclear whether Obama would encourage Aubertine to stay in the Senate as the Dems try to get their narrow edge back or to get into the NY-23 race that Obama opened up for him by promoting John McHugh).

SSP Daily Digest: 4/2

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 2:03 PM EDT

• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.

• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.

• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).

• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.

• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).

• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)

• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).

NY-29: Randy Kuhl Says Dems Want Americans to "Suffer and Hurt"

by: James L.

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 9:19 PM EDT

I firmly believe the Democratic majority wants the American public to suffer and to hurt so that they can make some political gains at election time, and I think that's wrong.

The full clip is available here, with the offending soundbite coming at the tail end of a completely obsequious media interview (just listen to the reporter guffaw with a mix of approval and amusement at Randy's deep thoughts).

Phil has more.

NY-29: If Anyone Shouldn't Be Bragging About His Shotguns...

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 6:00 AM EDT

Area students got a taste of national government as U.S. Rep. John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. visited Cattaraugus County Wednesday.

The 29th Congressional District Republican spoke to class of Cattaraugus-Allegany County BOCES county government students who meet weekly at the Cattaraugus County Center. ...

The congressman said he had an "A" rating from the National Rifle Association and owned nine shotguns. (Emphasis added.

Just how did Shotgun Randy earn his nickname? It's not a pleasant story:

A member of the New York State Legislature who is running for Congress pulled two shotguns on his wife at a dinner party in 1994 and threatened to shoot her, according to her divorce complaint. ...

"In or about 1994, while the parties were hosting a dinner party at their home, the defendant (Kuhl) took out two shotguns and threatened to shoot plaintiff (Kuhl-Peterson)," the papers say.

Ms. Kuhl-Peterson filed for divorce in late 1998, charging that Mr. Kuhl had endangered her "mental and physical well-being and rendered it unsafe and improper for the parties to continue to reside together." The divorce was completed in 2000 in an agreement that allowed Mr. Kuhl to keep the house and directed him to make two financial payments to his wife.

If you are known for making violent threats against women while brandishing not one but two shotguns, I'd think you'd want to shut up about how many of those things you own.

NY-29: Massa Leads Kuhl by 7

by: James L.

Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 4:17 PM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):

Eric Massa (D): 49
Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±5%)

Boom! Just in case you need to play catch-up, on Monday, we saw other early October polls from SurveyUSA and the Benenson Strategy Group, both showing Massa ahead by 7 and 5 points, respectively.

Economic woes have hit New York's 29th District especially hard in recent years, and those hard times seem to be enough to overcome the district's decidedly Republican tilt (Bush won here by 56-42 in 2004). Just check out the Presidential numbers: Obama has a 48-45 lead over McCain in this Appalachian district. Don't believe it? SurveyUSA had almost the exact same result on Monday night, with Obama edging McCain by 49-47 here.

Things are looking dicey for Shotgun Randy. Just check out his favorable rating: 33-44. Brutal. Massa, on the other hand, is sitting at 45-27.

SSP House Ratings Changes: 10/6

by: James L.

Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:00 AM EDT

IL-10, NC-08, NY-29: Challengers Look Strong in New SUSA Polls

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:41 PM EDT

First up, IL-10 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Seals (D): 52
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Obama romps here, 62-36. Fuckin' A.

Next, NC-08 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Larry Kissell (D): 49
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 41
Thomas Hill (L): 6
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4%)

Bonus finding: Obama 53, McCain 44. Remember, Bush won this district 54-45 in 2004.

And finally, NY-29 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Eric Massa (D): 51
Randy "Shotgun" Kuhl (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Bonus finding: Obama leads 49-47, and this ain't exactly considered the heart of Obama country.

All in all, some awesome results for Team Blue. A bunch of Republican campaigns are going to have seriously miserable days tomorrow. And just think - Marky Mark "Capt." Kirk was kvetching like little kid today about poll which showed him six points ahead. Can't wait to see how he reacts to a survey which has him eight behind. Joy!

NY-29: Massa Leads Kuhl by 5

by: James L.

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 2:17 PM EDT

Eric Massa (D): 47
Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Amazingly, this is the first poll we've seen of this race all cycle, and it confirms that "Shotgun" Randy is in trouble. After a close race against Massa in 2006, it seems as if Kuhl's heart just isn't in the campaign this year. His fundraising has been sluggish, and he's also shown very little interest in actually debating Massa, going so far as to say:

"At this point we haven't agreed to any. We've taken the position that I've been real busy."

While this is the most Republican district in New York (R+5), it's an economically poor district that seems set to give Kuhl another volatile race this year. Watch out.

14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast - How many after November?

by: benawu

Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 8:10 PM EDT

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

DCCC Spends $175K in Ten Districts

by: James L.

Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 7:16 PM EDT

• ID-01: $10,000 in support of Walt Minnick

• LA-06: $13,000 in support of Don Cazayoux

• MI-07: $38,000 in support of Mark Schauer

• MO-06: $24,500 in support of Kay Barnes

• NH-01: $17,000 in support of Carol Shea-Porter

• NM-01: $10,000 in support of Martin Heinrich

• NY-29: $6,500 in support of Eric Massa

• OH-15: $33,000 in support of Mary Jo Kilroy

• OH-16: $17,000 in support of John Boccieri

• PA-10: $7,000 in support of Chris Carney

Expect to see a lot more of this in the weeks and months to come.

GOOD Congressional challengers on FISA: The List

by: BruinKid

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 9:16 AM EDT

First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill.  They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.

Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.

House rankings: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York

by: LeftistAddiction

Mon Jun 09, 2008 at 2:16 PM EDT

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

These rankings were first posted on Campaign Diaries.

DCCC Expands Red to Blue Ranks

by: James L.

Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 1:20 PM EDT

Kay Barnes (MO-06)
Anne Barth (WV-02)
Darcy Burner (WA-08)
Robert Daskas (NV-03)
Steven Driehaus (OH-01)
Jim Himes (CT-04)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Gary Peters (MI-09)
Mark Schauer (MI-07)
Dan Seals (IL-10)

There are few surprises here, but the committee's stamp of approval given to replacement candidate Anne Barth, who is running against incumbent GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in WV-02 seems indicative of the DCCC's desire to bust open the 2008 playing field in a big way.

NY-29: Kuhl to Quit?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 11:45 AM EST

Another area congressman who narrowly won reelection in 2006 is Randy Kuhl, a Republican from Hammondsport, Steuben County. He represents the 29th district, which covers Monroe County's southeastern suburbs.

A Kuhl spokeswoman said today he had not decided whether he would run for reelection.

On balance, I'd say this would likely be a slightly net negative for Democratic challenger Eric Massa.  Kuhl sucks, and a stronger local Republican might have a better shot at retaining this R+5.2 district.

Blue Majority: Eric Massa For Congress, NY-29

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 7:11 PM EDT

Eric is a true netroots favorite, evidenced by the tags NY-29 and Eric Massa being the most common tags for a congressional race and congressional candidate respectively, on MyDD.  Eric is extremely energetic and hard working, as I have seen upclose in my visits to the district on several occasions. His energy rubs off on his grassroots supporters, who were able to close off a corporate Democratic primary challenger this past summer through relentless blog pressure, securing the support of virtually every local precinct captain in the district (including two family members of mine who joined the silent revolution in Update New York), and lots of small-donor, in-district fundraising. Now, he is set to take on Randy Kuhl who, separate occasions, has threatened both his ex-wife and his constituents with firearms, even though he claims he was just joking about the later.  But he seriously doesn't like his constituents:



That is, he doesn't like his constituents unless they are Republican donors trying to build new bowling alleys  in the district.

This is the "reddest" district in New York, which Bush won with about 56% of the vote in 2004. However, is it turning blue, like the rest of New York state. But Eric Massa is not your typical red-district Democrat who will let you down. As a progressive, he will fight for you, pledging to oppose FISA and watered-down withdrawal from Iraq, something few Democrats from a district this "red" have done. After losing by only 4% in 2006 despite no help from national committees, Massa is well poised to take the seat in 2008.

Support Eric Massa for Congress on Blue Majority. He is another example of more and better Democrats. 

NY-29: Field Clears for Massa

by: James L.

Sun Aug 05, 2007 at 2:47 AM EDT

According to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, David Nachbar, one of the contenders for the Democratic nomination to take on "Shotgun" Randy Kuhl next year, has withdrawn his candidacy this week.  Nachbar cites workplace demands as the reason for folding his bid, but perhaps he also found that he underestimated the depth and breadth of support for rematch candidate Eric Massa within the 29th district.  For instance, it seems like not a day goes by where Massa's campaign doesn't put out another press release announcing the endorsement of a county or township Democratic committee (see the latest one here).

While Massa got off to a solid start, outraising Kuhl significantly in the second quarter ($158K to $68K) and reporting a higher cash-on-hand total, Nachbar had some deep pockets of his own that he was willing to tap into.  Coupled with New York's September primary, a contested nomination would have been a serious resource drain for the eventual nominee.  New York's 29th will not be one of the easier targets for Democrats in 2008, but Nachbar's termination could help ensure that Massa will make a decent second shot at it.

(H/T: DailyKos diarist ipsos)