CT-Sen, OH-Sen: Bad News from Quinnipiac

by: Crisitunity

Fri Nov 13, 2009 at 1:10 PM EST

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38 (39)
Rob Simmons (R): 49 (44)
Undecided: 11 (15)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 41 (NA)
Linda McMahon (R): 43 (NA)
Undecided: 12 (NA)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (40)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 42 (36)
Undecided: 14 (20)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (40)
Tom Foley (R): 47 (38)
Undecided: 13 (18)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (42)
Peter Schiff (R): 41 (36)
Undecided: 15 (19)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 55 (56)
Merrick Alpert (D): 22 (13)
Undecided: 21 (25)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rob Simmons (R): 28 (43)
Linda McMahon (R): 17 (NA)
Tom Foley (R): 9 (5)
Peter Schiff (R): 5 (4)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 4 (2)
Undecided: 36 (43)
(MoE: ±5.4%)

Democrats had been seeming more confident about two Senate races, in Connecticut (where Chris Dodd seemed to be climbing back up to contention, as various controversies like the AIG bonuses and his mortgage that had buffetted him earlier in the year faded from view) and Ohio (where polls had shown the Democrats leading ex-Bushie Rob Portman). Yesterday, though, Quinnipiac threw a splash of cold water on both of those races.

In Connecticut, Republican ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, with whom Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd had pulled within 5 in September, now opens up an 11-point lead. Simmons also still looks on track to win the nomination, despite the splashy entry of wrasslin' impresario Linda McMahon. Dodd had 42/49 favorables -- actually a slight improvement from last time's 40/48. Instead, Dodd seems dragged down by the economy, which respondents see as the biggest issue (at 33%) and which, for better or worse, the Democrats are starting to own. Simmons has a squeaky-clean 40/10 favorable (better than McMahon, at 20/13), so it may be time for Dodd to open up a Corzine-style can of slimy whoopass on Simmons -- maybe starting by asking him what's the deal with that teabag attached to his pocket constitution.

One other lowlight from the Connecticut poll: they find Joe Lieberman more popular than Chris Dodd, with 49/44 approval and a 46/45 re-elect. This despite 51% saying his views are closer to those of the Republican Party and 25% saying Democratic.

Quinnipiac (11/5-9, registered voters, 9/8-10 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 39 (31)
Undecided: 24 (26)

Lee Fisher (D): 38 (41)
Tom Ganley (R): 34 (29)
Undecided: 27 (27)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 34 (39)
Rob Portman (R): 38 (34)
Undecided: 27 (25)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (39)
Tom Ganley (R): 32 (31)
Undecided: 30 (27)
(MoE: ±2.9%)

Lee Fisher (D): 24 (26)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 22 (17)
Undecided: 51 (55)

Rob Portman (R): 26 (27)
Tom Ganley (R): 7 (9)
Undecided: 64 (61)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

The economy may also be weighing on voters' minds in Ohio, where Quinnipiac finds even Barack Obama in net-negative territory, with a 45/50 approval (although, compared with his national approvals, that may point to this as a slight outlier rather than an indication of particular disgruntlement in Ohio -- recall this was the same sample that found a 40-40 tie in the gubernatorial race). The result is a pretty big turnaround in the Senate race, where Lt. Governor Lee Fisher was beating ex-Rep. Rob Portman by double digits in September but now falls into a slight deficit. Fisher beats teabagging auto dealer Tom Ganley, but there looks like little hope of Ganley getting out of the primary.

These numbers also indicate why SoS Jennifer Brunner is sticking around, despite the wheels having fallen off her campaign (and subsequently having been sold for food). Regardless of her fundraising situation, she's still coming pretty close to Fisher in the primary, and performing about the same against the Republicans as Fisher. That, of course, may change once the ad wars begin.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | CT-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 11/11

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 11, 2009 at 3:24 PM EST

• IL-Sen, OH-Sen: Two little-known, never-been-elected rich guys are going on the air with TV spots in their respective Senate primaries: Democratic attorney Jacob Meister in Illinois, and Republican auto dealer Tom Ganley in Ohio. Meister may not have much hope in a field with three prominent candidates, but Ganley is trying to gain traction among the anti-establishment right against consummate insider pick Rob Portman in a two-way GOP primary fight. (Ganley's buy is reportedly only for $60K, so it seems more oriented toward generating media buzz than actually reaching lots of eyeballs, though.)

• NC-Sen: Rep. Bob Etheridge still sounds genuinely undecided about whether to get into the Senate race or not, but he's now promising a decision by the end of the week. The DSCC is actively courting Etheridge, despite the presence of SoS Elaine Marshall in the race. Meanwhile, two other possible contenders are circling, watching, and waiting: former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker says he may run if Etheridge doesn't, and outgoing Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy is still considering the race, saying he'll decide by the end of the month.

• SC-Sen: Ouch! Lindsey Graham just got a pretty strong repudiation from the local GOP in one of the state's largest counties, Charleston County. They unanimously voted to censure Graham over his cooperation with Democrats and moderate GOPers. Graham isn't up until 2014, but it certainly doesn't bode well for his next primary.

• CO-Gov: Josh Penry's jump out of the Colorado governor's GOP primary may have been more of a push. Big-time GOP funder Phil Anschutz is reported to have personally contacted Penry to let him know that he'd be on the receiving end of the 501(c)(4) that he'd created to target anyone opposing establishment candidate ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. (Of course, with news of this having leaked out, that seems likely to just further enrage the teabaggy right and lead them to find a hard-right replacement who, unlike Penry, isn't worried about having his brand besmirched for future runs. Could Tom Tancredo be that man?)

• CT-Gov: For about the zillionth time in his career, Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal decided not to run for a promotion; he says he won't get involved in the newly-minted open seat gubernatorial race. However, Blumenthal did nothing to quash rumors that he's waiting to take on Joe Lieberman in 2012, saying "stay tuned." Meanwhile, Paulist financial guru Peter Schiff, currently running for the GOP Senate nod, confirmed that he won't be leaping over to the gubernatorial race, either.

• SC-Gov: Fervently anti-tax state Rep. Nikki Haley has been a key Mark Sanford ally in the legislature, but she's been lagging in the GOP gubernatorial primary race. A Mark Sanford endorsement would be poison at this point, though, so the Sanfords paid her back with a slightly-less-poisonous endorsement from Jenny Sanford instead. Still doesn't really sound like the kind of endorsement you want to tout, though.

FL-08: Republican leaders are increasingly sour on the candidacy of 28 year-old businessman Armando Gutierrez Jr., who is "pissing people off a lot" with his bare-knuckle style. The NRCC is still hoping to recruit a solid challenger to go up against "colorful" Dem Rep. Alan Grayson after months of recruitment mishaps, and the current batch of names being bandied about include businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, and state Rep. Kurt Kelly. Gutierrez, however, seems to be doing all he can to make the GOP primary an unpleasant proposition. (J)

• FL-19: The Democratic primary in the upcoming special election to replace Robert Wexler is shaping up to be a real snoozefest. Former State Rep. Irving Slosberg, who lost a bitter 2006 state Senate primary to Ted Deutsch, announced yesterday that he won't be running and that he's endorsing Deutch. (Slosberg probably has his eye on Deutch's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.)

• ID-01: With state Rep. Ken Robert's dropout in the 1st, Vaughn Ward had the GOP field to himself for only a couple hours before another state Rep., Raul Labrador, said that he'll get in instead. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Bill Sali has been speaking before conservative groups and is still considering an attempt at a rematch with Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick, and says he'll decide by the end of the month.

• NJ-03: Democratic freshman Rep. John Adler has been seemingly running scared despite the Republicans not having recruited anyone in this swingy R+1 district, probably helped along by Chris Christie's huge numbers last week in Ocean County. Republicans think they have the right guy to flatten Adler: former Philadelphia Eagles lineman Jon Runyan. Runyan isn't retired but not on any team's roster either, and is "considering" the race.

• NY-24: He lost narrowly in 2008 to Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, and now businessman Richard Hanna is making candidate-type noises again, with a press release attacking Arcuri's health care reform vote. Hanna is thinking about another run; Republicans don't seem to have any other strong candidates on tap in this R+2 district.

• SD-AL: Republican State Rep. Shantel Krebs decided against a run against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. She was facing a cluttered field, with Secretary of State Chris Nelson and state Rep. Blake Curd already in the GOP primary.

• Nassau Co. Exec: So I was wrong about the Seattle mayor's race being the last one to be called: the Nassau County Executive race is now in mid-recount, and Republican challenger Ed Mangano has a paper-thin (24 votes) lead over Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi. Democratic Nassau County Legislator Dave Meijas (who you might remember from NY-03 in 2006) is also in a recount.

• VA-St. House: The last House of Delegates race in Virginia was finally called; Republican Ron Villaneuva was certified the victor in the Virginia Beach-based 21st over incumbent Dem Bobby Mathieson by a 13-vote margin, although the race is likely to go to a recount by Mathieson's request.

• WA-St. Sen.: Democratic State Sen. Fred Jarrett was picked by new King Co. Executive Dow Constantine (who defeated Jarrett in the primary) to be the Deputy Executive. Jarrett will need to resign from the Senate to do so, creating a vacancy in this Bellevue-based, historically Republican but recently very Democratic seat. In Washington, though, legislative vacancies are filled by appointment by the county council (Democratic-controlled in King County, as you might expect), so there won't be a special election, and the appointee will serve until (his or her probable re-election in) Nov. 2010.

• Generic Ballot: Everyone in the punditsphere seems abuzz today that Gallup suddenly shows a 4-pt GOP edge in the generic House ballot, a big swing from the previous D+2 edge. (Most other pollsters show a mid-single-digits Dem edge, like Pew at D+5 today.) Real Clear Politics points out an important caveat: the last time the GOP led the Gallup House ballot was September 2008, and you all remember how that election played out. Another poll today is perhaps more interesting: Winthrop University polled just the Old South states, and finds a 47-42 edge for the Republicans in the generic House ballot in the south. Initially that may not seem good, but remember that most of the state's reddest districts are contained in the south, so, after accounting for the heavily-concentrated wingnuts, this probably extrapolates out to a Dem edge still present in southern swing districts.

• Public option: With the prospect of an opt-out public option looming large, the topic of whether to opt out is poised to become a hot issue in gubernatorial races in red states next year. Several states already have opt-out legislation proposed, although it remains to be seen whether any would actually go through with it (when considering how many states turned down stimulus funds in the end despite gubernatorial grandstanding... or how many states have decided to opt out of Medicaid, as they're able to do).

• WATN?: Congratulations to Charlie Brown, who has accepted a position in the Dept. of Homeland Security. Unfortunately, this means Brown won't be back for another kick at the football in CA-04.

SSP Daily Digest: 11/4

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 5:35 PM EST

• DE-Sen: Also on the GOP civil war front, the movement/establishment split is even spilling over into Delaware, which most pundits look at as the GOP's closest to a sure thing. Conservative activist Christine O'Donnell, who lost badly to Joe Biden last year, will stay in the GOP field with or without Castle. O'Donnell is sitting on $2K CoH, along with $24K in debts from her previous run.

• IL-Sen: Also on the GOP civil war front, one of Rep. Mark Kirk's minor-league GOP primary opponents -- not Patrick Hughes, but even lower down the food chain: Eric Wallace -- is looking at Doug Hoffman and saying "That could be me!" Wallace is dropping out of the GOP field and planning to run as an independent -- which could conceivably tip the race to Alexi Giannoulias in a close contest. Kirk, sensing trouble brewing on his right flank, is asking for help from an unlikely source (based on his attacks on her inexperience during the 2008 election). He's asking queen teabagger Sarah Palin for her endorsement!

• NH-Sen: Also on the GOP civil war front, wealthy businessman William Binnie made official his run for the GOP nod in New Hampshire's Senate race. Sounds like lots of Granite Staters aren't buying GOP establishment candidate Kelly Ayotte's smoke-and-mirrors campaign.

• OH-Sen: Finally, one item from what passes for the Democratic civil war. DSCC chair Bob Menendez all-but-endorsed Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in Ohio, by mentioning only him in Ohio when talking about pickup prospects. Fisher faces a primary (for the time being) against underfunded SoS Jennifer Brunner.

• CT-Gov: It looks like Ned Lamont, who beat and then lost to Joe Lieberman in 2006, is going to take a whack at the Connecticut gubernatorial race. Lamont just formed an exploratory committee; he'll face an uphill fight just to get out of the primary, though, against SoS Susan Bysiewicz.

• FL-Gov: So many Kennedys, so little time. Yet another random member of the Kennedy clan is considering a quixotic run for office; this time it's Maria Shriver's brother Anthony Shriver (founder of a disabilities-related nonprofit), considering a race in the Democratic gubernatorial primary (which Alex Sink already seems to have locked down).

• NY-Gov: If there's any doubt that AG Andrew Cuomo is gearing up for a gubernatorial run next year, Cuomo will be holding a big fundraiser in Washington in several weeks, hosted by DC power couple Tony and Heather Podesta.

• CO-04: While state House minority whip Cory Gardner seemed to have impeccable conservative bona fides (running against freshman Dem Rep. Betsy Markey), there's some new information that calls that into question: it turns out in 1998 he was an active volunteer for Democrat Susan Kirkpatrick, who ran against then-Rep. Bob Schaffer in the 4th. (He even gave the seconding nominating speech for her at the Dem convention in the 4th.) In his defense, Gardner claims he was raised a Democrat, but became a Republican convert in college -- but he graduated from college in 1997. Looks like the teabaggers have one more insufficiently pure specimen to add to their hunting list.

• FL-08: The netroots love them some Alan Grayson. Nov. 2's online moneybomb event netted the Florida rabblerouser over $500,000, from over 13,000 contributions averaging $40 each. (The GOP also has an answer site up -- "mycongressmanisnuts.com," a nice third-grade response to "congressmanwithguts.com", as apparently "poopyhead.com" was already taken -- which so far has brought in $4,000.)

• FL-19: Charlie Crist has set a special election date for the election to replace resigning Rep. Robert Wexler (although there doesn't seem to be much drama here in this dark-blue district, as the wheels seem to be greased for state Sen. Ted Deutch). The primary will be Feb. 2, and the general will be April 6.

• KS-04: Republican state Sen. Susan Wagle was considered on the short list for the open seat being left behind by Rep. Todd Tiahrt, but yesterday she confirmed that she won't run for it next year.

• NY-23: The gift that keeps giving. Doug Hoffman is reportedly already sounding interested, via Twitter, in running again in the 23rd. (No clue as to what ballot lines he'd seek to run on.)

• PA-19: Here's a surprise: long-time Republican Rep. Todd Platts may be looking for an exit strategy. He's applying to become the Comptroller General, an appointed position at the top of the government's nonpartisan Government Accountability Office. Platts has been safe so far in his York-based R+12 district, but as a Main Street Republican, he's rather out-of-whack with his red turf and may suddenly not be relishing the thought of having teabaggers using him for target practice in 2010.

• NYC-Mayor: Well, somebody at the White House is feeling defensive over the decision not to get involved in the surprisingly-close mayoral race. When Rep. Anthony Weiner (who'd considered running) asked maybe if Obama should have helped out, an anonymous leaker snarled "Maybe Anthony Weiner should have manned-up and run against Michael Bloomberg."

• NRSC: Having gotten the message from the rabid teabagging hordes, NRSC head John Cornyn is announcing that the NRSC won't be spending money in any Republican primaries next year. The NRSC has endorsed in four primaries so far (Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania), but it's sounding like they may not endorse in any more, either... Cornyn admits "Endorsements, frankly, are overrated. They can to some extent be a negative." Guess who is coming to play in GOP Senate primaries, though? That's right, the Club for Growth, who are now threatening involvement in Illinois and Connecticut, saying that the best Mark Kirk and newly-converted teabag-carrier Rob Simmons can hope for is to be "left alone."

• NRCC: Pete Sessions Deathwatch, Vol. 2? All over the punditosphere today are proclamations of the NRCC head as one of yesterday's top "losers," as the NRCC's special election losing streak had two more notches added to it. George Stephanopolous makes the case that Sessions actually managed to lose NY-23 twice, once with Scozzafava over the long haul, then over the weekend again with Hoffman.

OH-Sen: Brunner Fundraising Fail

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 20, 2009 at 2:30 PM EDT

Brunner raised only $147,000 for the third quarter, and spent $201,000 - well more than she brought in. That 136 percent burn rate leaves her campaign nearly bankrupt with only $111,000 cash-on-hand.

Remember that, contrary to what you might expect, she's operating without an EMILY's List endorsement, so she doesn't have a nationwide base to draw on. Her primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, isn't exactly tearing things up on the fundraising front either, but he's up to a 14:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Brunner. The clock seems to be ticking louder on her Senate bid. With Brunner's ally Marilyn Brown recently jumping out of the Secretary of State race, does that foreshadow Brunner (contrary to her many protestations) downshifting to a re-election bid for her current job?

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 10/15

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 4:39 PM EDT

• CT-Sen: After a mediocre fundraising quarter (of course, between prostate cancer and pinch-hitting at the helm of the HELP committee, he may have had better things to do), Chris Dodd is getting some high-level help. Barack Obama will appear on Dodd's behalf at a fundraiser in Connecticut next week.

• FL-Sen: Two very different pictures of where Charlie Crist's approval stands, from different pollster. Insider Advantage finds his approval at a puzzlingly low 48/41,and 55/38 among Republicans. (They didn't poll the primary or general.) On the other hand, a poll by Republican pollster Cherry Communications on behalf of the Florida Chamber of Commerce finds 62/28. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist's losing streak among the party base continued, as Marco Rubio racked up a big win with the Palm Beach GOP, winning their straw poll 90-17. (While most of the straw polls have happened in rural, teabaggy places, this is moderate, country club terrain, where Crist should play better.) Interestingly, ex-NH Senator Bob Smith, whose existence most people, me included, had forgotten about, pulled in 11 votes.

• NV-Sen: Facing bad poll numbers but armed with gigantic piles of cash, Harry Reid has already started advertising for his re-election. Despite his decades in office, he's running a TV spot basically intended to introduce himself to Nevada, seeing as how many of the state's residents have moved in since the last time he was elected in 2004.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand reported another large cash haul this quarter, bringing in $1.6 mil and sitting on $4.1 mil CoH. Nevertheless, she still needs to work on introducing herself to her constituents (granted, there's a lot of them); a Newsday/Siena poll of Long Islanders find that she has a favorable of 23/27, with 50 saying they don't know.

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman doubled up on Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the money chase in Ohio, raising $1.3 million to $620K for Fisher. Portman will still need to get past wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the primary, though, who's pledging to spend up to $7 million of his own money on the race, which could drain Portman nicely before he faces off against a Democrat. No word yet from Fisher's Dem opponent, SoS Jennifer Brunner, although the fact that she just replaced her campaign finance team can't be an encouraging sign.

• PA-Sen: This would be a big 'get' for Joe Sestak if he were running in Connecticut: Ned Lamont, whose successful primary defeat of Joe Lieberman in 2006 established some precedent for Sestak, gave Sestak his endorsement.

• CT-Gov: Jodi Rell is not looking much like a candidate for re-election, if her fundraising is any indication; she raised just $14K over the last quarter. The Dems in the race (who are running with or without a Rell retirement), Stamford mayor Dan Malloy and SoS Susan Bysiewicz, have each raised over $100K.

• FL-Gov: The poll paid for by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, mentioned above, also took a look at the Florida governor's race. They see GOP AG Bill McCollum beating Dem state CFO Alex Sink, 42-35.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen polls the New Jersey gubernatorial race again, and there's a pretty important distinction between their results with and without leaners pushed. Their topline numbers are 45 for Chris Christie, 41 for Jon Corzine, and 9 for Chris Daggett, a bit more Christie-favorable than what else we've seen this week. However, in Rasmussen's words, "when voters are asked their initial choice," it's a 38-38 tie between Christie and Corzine, with 16 for Daggett. This should superficially cheer Democrats, but it also points to some hope for Christie, in that it shows just how soft a lot of Daggett's support is. (Rasmussen also finds that 57% of Daggett's supporters say they could change their minds before Election Day.)

• WY-Gov: Gov. Dave Freudenthal is at least offering some sort of timeline on deciding whether to seek a third term, but we'll need to wait a long time. He says he'll let us know after the end of the next legislative session, in March; the end of the filing period is May 28. He also didn't offer much insight into when he'd set about challenging the state's term limits law in court (a challenge he'd be expected to win, but one that could be time-consuming) if he did decide to run.

• FL-10: The retirement speculation surrounding 79-year-old Rep. Bill Young isn't going to go away with his fundraising haul this quarter: only $4,500, with $419K on hand. He's also giving away money (to the tune of $10,000) to the NRCC, despite facing a strong challenge next year. Unfortunately, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, had a second straight lackluster quarter of his own, bringing in $77K for $101K CoH.

• FL-19: A roundup from the newly-merged CQ/Roll Call looks at the quickly developing field in the dark-blue 19th, for a special election to replace the soon-to-resign Robert Wexler. The big question is whether Wexler throws his support behind state Sen. Peter Deutch; Deutch won Wexler's old state Senate seat (which covers more than half the 19th) in 2006 partly due to Wexler's endorsement. West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel is another possibility; so too are Broward County mayor Stacy Ritter and state Sen. Jeremy Ring, although their Broward County bases don't overlap as well with the 19th. Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber (who finished 3rd in the 1996 primary that Wexler won) is already in the race.

• LA-02: Um, what? GOP Rep. Joe Cao will be appearing with Barack Obama in New Orleans at several events today. While it's apparently customary for presidents to invite local lawmakers to appearances in their districts, it's also customary for members of the opposition party to decline. Cao, however, probably sees hitching his wagon to Obama as at least a faint hope of staving off defeat in this strongly Democratic district. Cao's fundraising numbers for last quarter were pretty good, with $394K raised, but his burn rate was terrible, churning through nearly all of it ($382K) with high costs for direct mail fundraising.

• NY-01: We could have a real races on our hands in the 1st, where Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop's Republican challenger Randy Altschuler reported $659K in the third quarter. Of course, $450K of that was from his own pocket, and a grand total of one donor was actually from within the 1st, with the bulk of the rest of the money coming from Manhattan.

• Census: David Vitter, who, with Robert Bennett, is leading the Republican charge to get the Census to ask respondents about their citizenship status, has decided to modify his amendment to this year's appropriations package after one of the academics who he was relying on said that such a measure would scare off respondents from participating in the census at all. Not that it would matter, since it's not likely to get an up-or-down vote, and Commerce Sec. Gary Locke already made clear that it's way too late to make changes to the 2010 forms, which have already been printed and shipped.

• Polling: PPP's Tom Jensen notes, that generally, Republicans aren't picking up any new voters; the main problem with the upcoming New Jersey and Virginia elections is that Democrats have disproportionately lost interest. If the 2008 voter universes still applied in NJ and VA, Democrats would be winning both races handily.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/14

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 2:51 PM EDT

• CT-Sen: How sadly transparent a play to the party's base is this? Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who in the two years prior to his 2006 defeat was the 5th most liberal Republican in the House, is now a teabagger. He says he's attached an actual bag of tea to his pocket copy of the Constitution.

• FL-Sen: In an effort to have no more George LeMieuxs, there's a bipartisan effort afoot in the Florida state legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies in Florida will be filled by fast special election rather than by appointment. State Sen. Paula Dockery, who may be running for Governor soon, is the Republican co-sponsor.

• IL-Sen: David Hoffman, the former Inspector General of Chicago (and frequent monkeywrench in that city's machine), has released an internal poll showing that state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while starting with a sizable lead, doesn't have a mortal lock on the Democratic Senate nomination. Hoffman's poll finds Giannoulias at 26%, with former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson at 12 and Hoffman at 7, leaving 55% undecided. On the GOP side of the aisle, Mark Kirk continues to shuffle to the right as he faces some competition in his own primary: he continues to defend his flip-flop on the cap-and-trade vote that he voted for in the House and would vote against in the Senate, but also says that he'd keep in place the military's Don't Ask Don't Tell policy, saying "Keeping that all out of the workplace makes common sense."

• MA-Sen: In case there was any doubt AG Martha Coakley was running under the mantle of the establishment's candidate, she unleashed a torrent of endorsements yesterday, including about half of the state legislature (78 representatives and 16 senators, including both chambers' leaders), as well as many mayors and labor unions.

• MO-Sen: Joe Biden continues to ramp up his fundraising efforts on behalf of 2010 candidates; he'll be appearing at a Robin Carnahan fundraiser in St. Louis tomorrow. And on Friday, he'll appear in Nevada with Harry Reid to tout the stimulus.

• NV-Sen, Gov: On the off chance that John Ensign decides to spare us all the embarrassment and resign before 2010, Gov. Jim Gibbons says that he wouldn't appoint former AG Brian Sandoval to the job (despite that getting Sandoval out of the way would make his own chances of surviving the gubernatorial primary somewhat better). Gibbons also says he wouldn't appoint himself (since that would just mean likely defeat in the primary in the ensuing 2010 special election).

• OH-Sen: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher picked up an endorsement from Rep. John Boccieri of the Canton-area 16th District today. Boccieri joins Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson in endorsing Fisher in the Dem primary; the remaining six Dems in the state's delegation haven't picked sides yet.

• OR-Gov: Not one but three possible new entrants in the Oregon gubernatorial race, although I can't see any of them getting anywhere. On the Dem side, former Hewlett-Packard executive Steve Shields says he'll announce on Thursday that he's getting into the Democratic primary field. He wasn't at the Carly Fiorina levels of management (which, uh, may actually be a good thing) and doesn't bring a personal fortune to the race, but he has hired some pricey staffers already. On the GOP side, very large, very slow, very white former Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley is interested in the race (after having declined the NRCC to run in OR-05). No one is sure where exactly he fits in ideologically in the GOP; at any rate, here's hoping he's a better campaigner than he was a free throw shooter. And out on the left, Jerry Wilson, the founder of Soloflex, is going to run under the Oregon Progressive Party banner. If the general were likely to be closer, a third-party lefty with his own money would seem threatening, but so far, with John Kitzhaber in, the race isn't shaping up to be close.

• VA-Gov: Al Gore will be appearing on Creigh Deeds' behalf on Friday, although it'll be at a private fundraiser and not a public appearance.

• FL-08: With the surprising decision of former state Sen. Daniel Webster to beg off from facing Rep. Alan Grayson, all of a sudden the floodgates have opened -- and not in the way you'd expect. Prospective candidates are now actively running away from the race, starting with state Rep. Steve Precourt, who was supposed to be Plan D but said he won't run and will go for re-election to his state House seat instead. This was followed by wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who had previously gotten into the race and promised to spend $200,000 of his own money, but then mysteriously dropped out yesterday. Another rumored rich guy, Tim Seneff, already begged off last week -- which means that 28-year-old real estate developer and South Florida transplant Armando Gutierrez Jr. may be the last GOPer standing -- and even he sounds like he's having problems launching his campaign. What kind of mysterious powers does Alan Grayson have here? (Well, other than many millions of his own money and a willingness to spend it...)

• FL-19: It's been revealed that Rep. Robert Wexler's new job will not be in the Obama administration, but rather as president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. The special election date won't be set until Wexler's resignation has been made official, though.

• IN-02: It's official: state Rep. "Wacky" Jackie Walorski will be taking on Rep. Joe Donnelly in the 2nd, bringing the full might of the teabaggers' movement down upon him.

• IN-08: Also in Indiana, the Republicans lined up a challenger to Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who's gotten more than 60% of the vote in both his elections in this Republican-leaning seat. Larry Bucshon, a surgeon, is a political novice, but would seem to bring his own money to the race.

• NV-03: In Nevada's 3rd, it looks like former state Sen. Joe Heck won't have the Republican primary field to himself. Real estate investor Rob Lauer is getting in the race and says he'll invest $100K of his own money in the campaign.

• NY-23: Politico has some encouraging dirt on the special election in the 23rd: Republican Dede Scozzafava is dangerously low on cash, and that's largely because the RNC has declined to get involved in the race. Scozzafava has spent only $26K on TV ads and recently had to pull down an ad in the Syracuse market; by contrast, Dem Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman have spent $303K and $124K on TV, respectively. (Discussion underway in conspiracy's diary.) Adding further fuel to the GOP/Conservative split is that Mike Huckabee will be appearing in Syracuse to address the NY Conservative Party. Huckabee hasn't actually endorsed Hoffman, but the timing can't exactly be a coincidence.

• NY-29: This slipped through the cracks over the weekend; after a cryptic e-mail that led to some hyperventilating about whether Eric Massa wouldn't run for re-election, he announced at a press conference on the 10th that, yes, in fact, he will be back. Massa faces a challenge in 2010 from Corning mayor Tom Reed.

• ME-Init: A poll from PanAtlantic SMS points to the anti-gay marriage Question 1 in Maine going down to defeat (meaning that gay marriage would survive). With gay advocacy groups learning from their California mistakes last year and going on the offensive with ads this time, the poll finds the proposition losing 52-43.

• Legislatures: Democrats lost two legislative seats in special elections last night, a state House seat in Tennessee and a state House seat in Oklahoma. It's a bigger deal in Tennessee, where Dem Ty Cobb widely lost to GOPer Pat Marsh in his effort to succeed his brother (losing 4,931 to 3,663); the GOP now holds a 51-48 numeric edge in the House, although it sounds like the Dems will keep controlling the chamber for now. In Oklahoma, Republican Todd Russ won with 56% en route to picking up a seat left vacant by a Democratic resignation, moving the GOP's edge in the state House to 61-39. Both were rural districts with Democratic registration edges but extremely Republican tilts as of late, where historic Democratic downballot advantages are drying up.

• NYC: After looking kind of vulnerable in the previous SurveyUSA poll, mayor Michael Bloomberg bounced back in yesterday's poll. He leads Democratic city comptroller William Thompson, 55-38.

• King Co. Exec: Also from SurveyUSA, a troubling look at the King County Executive Race, where the stealth Republican candidate Susan Hutchison leads Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine, 47-42. This is the first time county executive has been a nonpartisan race, and you've gotta wonder how many people are unaware of Hutchison's Republican past (for her to be polling this well in such a blue county, it would seem that she picked up a fair number of votes from suburban moderate Dems who voted for state Sen. Fred Jarrett or state Rep. Ross Hunter in the primary and who may be loath to see another Seattlite like Constantine get the job). This race, to be decided in November, may be something of a canary in the coal mine, as it puts to the test the seemingly new Republican strategy of running blonde 50-something women with little partisan track record, having them steer clear of social conservatism and mostly focus on anti-tax platitudes (as seen in NV-Sen and CO-Sen, and NH-Sen as well if you disregard the "blonde" part).

Sunday Senate Chat

by: D in FL

Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 5:34 AM EDT

So far from what I can tell there are 5 Democratic seats that are vulnerable and another 6 Republican Seats that are vulnerable.

Poll Roundup (9/25)

by: James L.

Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 6:40 PM EDT

• AZ-Gov/Sen: Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer is not only imperiled in the general election, she's also extremely vulnerable to a primary challenge, according to PPP. State Treasurer Dean Martin leads Brewer by 37-26, but Brewer manages to come out on top against ex-Gov. Fife Symington by 39-31. However, in a three-way race against Martin and Symington, Brewer comes in last; Symington leads with 34, Martin clocks in at 26, and Brewer only registers at 22%. Ouch.

  And in case you were wondering, John McCain doesn't have anything to worry about in a primary race: he's dispatching Minutemen founder Chris Simcox by a 61-17 spread.

• CA-Sen: Everyone's favorite pollster, Rasmussen Reports, has dipped its toes back in the sunny California surf, and they have some better news for Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer leads Carly Fiorina by 49-39 (up from 45-41 in July), and Chuck DeVore by 46-37.

• CO-Gov/Sen: The Tarrance Group, a GOP firm, is out with a new poll of the Senate and gubernatorial primaries in Colorado. For Governor, Scott McInnis leads Josh Penry by 40-13, and Jane Norton has a 45-15 edge over Ken Buck in the Senate race. On the Democratic side, Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff by 41-27.

• IA-Gov/Sen: Rasmussen finds Democratic Gov. Chet Culver in a world of trouble, trailing wingnut Bob Vander Plaats by 43-39, and ex-Gov. Terry Branstad by 54-34. While I don't doubt that Branstad is ahead of Culver at this point (Selzer says as much), the margins may have more to do with the Rasmussen Effect than anything else.

• MA-Gov: Suffolk came out with their latest poll of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, and it provides some of the sunniest results for Deval Patrick in recent memory. Despite being saddled with an atrocious 29/56 re-elect rating, Patrick comes out on top of three-way match-ups against Dem-turned-indie Tim Cahill and GOPers Charlie Baker and Christy Mihos. Take your pick: Patrick 36, Cahill 23, Baker 14; or Patrick 36, Cahill 24, Mihos 17.

• MI-Gov: Two polls here; one from Mitchell Research for the Detroit News, and another by IMP/MRG. Mitchell Research finds GOP AG Mike Cox leading Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry by a disturbing 45-32 margin. In the GOP primary, Cox beats Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, 30-23-11. The IMP/MRG poll has Cherry on top of businessman Rick Snyder by 42-34, but losing to Bouchard by 41-38. Bizarrely, they also decided to pit Cherry and Cox in a three-way race with Andy Dillon, the Democratic Speaker of the MI House, as an independent. In such a match-up, Cox leads Cherry by 35-33, with 13% of the vote going to Dillon.

• NY-Gov/Sen-B: I think I've seen more New York polls this year than I've seen rats on the Q line. Rasmussen finds the same old story: Andrew Cuomo would face little difficulty in winning the Governor's office, while Paterson would lose to Rudy and faces a dogfight against Rick freakin' Lazio, of all people. In the Senate race, incumbent Dem Kirsten Gillibrand leads George Pataki by 44-41.

• OH-Gov/Sen: Rasmussen is seeing Tossups everywhere. In Ohio, Republican John Kasich leads Democrat Ted Strickland by 46-45, while ex GOP-Rep. Rob Portman edges Lee Fisher by 41-40 and Jennifer Brunner by 40-38 in the Senate race.

• VA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage came out with their first take on Virginia's gubernatorial race, and it's a tight one: 48-44 for McDonnell. This seems to generally correlate with a growing sense that the race is seeing some tightening (just take a look at that Pollster.com chart), despite us not having any trend lines to mark this one against.

SSP Daily Digest: 9/24

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 24, 2009 at 4:01 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: Facing some unrest on the right flank, the RNC's Michael Steele has withdrawn sole support from Rep. Mark Kirk in the Illinois Senate GOP primary, according to the Chicago Observer. He's back to a neutral position, which certainly counts as a victory for Patrick Hughes, who's been gaining some momentum at coalescing the party's right-wing. Considering how Kirk acted when Andy McKenna was going to run, is another temper tantrum in the offing? On the Dem side, Alexi Giannoulias got the endorsement of the SEIU, which led his new rival, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, to "go there," invoking the specter of Rod Blagojevich, who was elected via SEIU support.

• NH-Sen: This isn't going at all according to plan for Kelly Ayotte (or the NRSC). Yet another random rich GOPer is showing up to scope out the Senate race, the third in a week. Today it's Jim Bender, an investor who used to be the CEO of Logicraft in the 1990s.

• OH-Sen: Everyone forgets about wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the GOP primary in Ohio against establishment pick Rob Portman, probably because he doesn't have a built-in constituency. Looks like he's trying to hook up with the teabaggers as a result, positioning himself as a populist alternative to the free-trading Portman. Ganley is also getting some help from a Republican insider: an endorsement from Bay Buchanan (sister of Pat), pleased by Ganley's anti-immigrant rhetoric.

• WV-Sen: Looks like Robert Byrd's stay in the hospital was a lot shorter than his stint this spring; he was released today.

• GA-Gov: Strategic Vision looks at the primary fields in the Georgia governor's race, and finds not much has changed since last time. For the Dems, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes is at 45%, with Thurbert Baker at 30, David Poythress at 5, and Dubose Porter at 2. (It was 45-29 last month.) For the GOP, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 38, with Karen Handel at 15, Nathan Deal at 10, and four other guys in single digits. (Oxendine was at 39 last month, although Deal was in 2nd last month at 13, so maybe he took a minor hit from that corruption probe.) No head-to-heads yet, unfortunately.

• MI-Gov: Here's another poll of a potentially exciting gubernatorial race, but primaries only. An Inside Michigan Politics finds a tight GOP primary, with AG Mike Cox in the lead at 27, followed by Rep. Pete Hoekstra at 23 and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15 (with businessman Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George each at 2). Lt. Gov. John Cherry is at 40 in the Dem primary with only light opposition from state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (9) and former state Rep. John Freeman (8). A March poll from the same pollster had Cox at 17 and Hoekstra at 15 (but both losing to Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, who isn't running).

• NJ-Gov: Two very different pictures from partisan pollsters of the New Jersey governor's race out there. First comes one from Democracy Corps, who have the race as close as anyone has had it since early spring: Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett 40-39-11, and Christie has net negative favorables for the first time, at 32/34. (Their poll two weeks ago had Christie up 41-38-10.) The other is Strategic Vision, who see Christie up 46-38-8. Still an improvement from their last poll in July: 53-38-5... like most pollsters, they see Corzine essentially unable to move up, but succeeding in dragging Christie's numbers down. One more bucket of mud for Corzine to throw at Christie arrived yesterday: news that Christie owned stock in Cendant Corp. at the same time as he was investigating them through the US Attorney's office.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Marist has a poll out that finds New Yorkers thinking that Barack Obama should butt out of New York governor's race, by a 62-27 margin. Nevertheless, only 25% think David Paterson should run next year (63% say no); they just want him to arrive at that decision on his own. While the poll doesn't contain gubernatorial matchups (not that we need any more of them), it does have some Senate numbers, confirming other local pollsters, finding the not-running Rudy Giuliani beating Kirsten Gillibrand 51-40 and the probably-not-running George Pataki beating Gillibrand 45-41.

Meanwhile, the NYT has a profile of a rather melancholy Paterson, saying "I didn't sign up for this." They also have a quote that could be seen as hopeful that he may still bail out on seeking another term: "if I got to a point where I thought that my candidacy was hurting my party, obviously it would be rather self-absorbed to go forward." (Unless he's made peace with just being self-absorbed.) If you're wondering what's taking him so long to make a decision, though, Josh Goodman has a nice pithy summary of the decisionmaking process, not just for Paterson, but all the race's players:

Paterson thinks he can beat Lazio, but not Giuliani, so he doesn't want to decide whether he's running until Giuliani makes up his mind. Giuliani thinks he can beat Paterson, but not Cuomo, so he doesn't want to decide whether he's running until Cuomo makes up his mind. Cuomo thinks he can beat anyone, but doesn't want the messiness of a primary battle, so he doesn't want to decide whether he's running until Paterson makes up his mind.

• VA-Gov: It looked briefly like ex-Gov. Doug Wilder might endorse Creigh Deeds after all, but today he backed down and said he won't endorse. Wilder also leveled some criticism at Deeds for proposing tax increases to fix northern Virginia's increasingly dire transportation problems. It's a wtf? moment from the mercurial Wilder, whose endorsement would do a lot to move African-American turnout for Deeds, where he hasn't generated much excitement yet.

• MO-04: No surprise here, but state Sen. Bill Stouffer made it official that he'll be taking on 17-term Dem incumbent Ike Skelton in the dark-red 4th. Christian Right former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler is already in the race; Stouffer, however, seems to be working more of a fiscal discipline angle.

• PA-07: While state Rep. Bryan Lentz seems to have the inside track on the Dem nomination (despite no formal announcement), another Democrat is getting in the race: Teresa Touey, a political consultant who has worked for Joe Sestak and Ted Kennedy. One problem for her, though: although she is a native of the 7th, she's been living in Massachusetts since the early 1990s.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds mayoral results in line with just about everybody else: incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Dem comptroller William Thompson 52-36, with Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher pulling in 2.

• Redistricting: Roll Call has a detailed piece on how the parties are ramping up financially for the post-2010 redistricting fights. A new 501(c)(4), euphemistically titled Making America's Promise Secure, with Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott among its founders, will be coordinating the effort (since campaign reform passed since 2002 prevents the RNC from using soft money to spearhead the effort now). The DCCC's counterpart is the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, although a 527, the equally euphemistic Foundation for the Future, looks like it'll do the financial heavy lifting.

OH-Sen: Dems Increase Leads Over Portman

by: Crisitunity

Wed Sep 16, 2009 at 6:18 PM EDT

Lee Fisher (D): 42 (37)
Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (36)
Tom Ganley (R): 29 (30)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (35)
Rob Portman (R): 34 (34)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (35)
Tom Ganley (R): 31 (31)
(MoE: ±3%)

Lee Fisher (D): 26 (24)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 17 (21)
(MoE: ±4.8%)

Rob Portman (R): 27 (33)
Tom Ganley (R): 9 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)

Here's the second half of Quinnipiac's poll of Ohio (they did the Governor's race yesterday). Despite the rough patch a lot of Democrats running for the Senate have run into in the last month or two (see today's spate of Rasmussen polls), the Democrats seem to be holding their ground in the open seat Senate race in Ohio, in fact gaining a bit from the so-so numbers they put up in July. This sample also sees Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher putting a little distance between him and his Democratic primary challenger, SoS Jennifer Brunner.

We're still a long way from decisively knowing anything here, though, as seen by the large undecideds in each category (especially the primaries). Fisher is the best known of the four, and even he has only a 33/13 favorable (with 55% "haven't heard enough"). By contrast, ex-Rep. Rob Portman, who seems well-known only in the Cincinnati area despite time on the national stage (as Bush's trade rep and then budget director), is 72% unknown.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen

OH-Sen, KY-Sen: Democratic Senate Candidates Appeal to the Progressive Netroots

by: Senate Guru

Tue Aug 25, 2009 at 11:44 AM EDT

Why should the progressive netroots support your campaign in you state's 2010 Democratic Senate primary?

To see the Ohio candidates' responses side-by-side, click here.  To see the Kentucky candidates' responses side-by-side, click here.

On the web:
Senate Guru
Senate Guru Facebook Group

SSP Daily Digest: 7/29

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 3:26 PM EDT

• NJ-Gov (pdf): The polls keep looking worse for Jon Corzine; this time it's PPP's turn. Chris Christie leads 50-36, with Corzine getting the votes of only 64% of Democrats and 26% of Independents. The 14-lead for Christie is up from 10, in PPP's last outing in late June.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds that Democratic NYC Comptroller William Thompson pulls within 10 points of incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 47-37, but they note that this may have to do with a small tweak in method than any larger trend. In this poll, they identified Bloomberg as "Independent and Republican" instead of just "Independent" as they did last time, when he did much better at 54-32. Thompson has been going on the offensive, though, so his name rec is probably much improved, too. Thompson beats Queens city council member Tony Avella in the primary, 44-11. Both Bloomberg and Thompson has positive job approval rates: 63/29 and 53/10, respectively.

• CA-10: The fields are set for the Sep. 1 special primary election, and now state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier is the first to hit the TV airwaves, running an ad focusing on health care reform.

• RNC: Also on the health care front, the RNC (not the NRCC, interestingly) is running radio spots against 60 different House Democrats, mostly in conservative-leaning districts, accusing them of a "dangerous experiment." There are also TV ads in the cheapo markets of Nevada, North Dakota, and Arkansas. That sounds like a huge package, but the whole thing is only costing them $1 million.

• TN-St. Sen.: Get ready for a special election in the Tennessee Senate in SD 31 in the Memphis suburbs; GOP Sen. Paul Stanley resigned yesterday (leaving the GOP with an 18-14 edge, with 1 vacancy) after he was Unmasked having an affair with his 22-year-old female intern, after the intern's boyfriend tried extorting him over naughty pictures. Naked pictures of state senate groupies? Hmmm... that sounds more like Gene Simmons to me than Paul Stanley. (In case you're wondering, her name is not "Beth," although based on her previous track record, she does certainly seem to like to rock and roll all night and party ev-er-y day) (Actually, I'm wondering if any one of these KISS references is going to have any resonance among SSP's key readership demographics.)

• Initiatives: Michigan Democrats are interested in using the ballot initiative process in 2010 to short-circuit the whole legislative song-and-dance on some key issues that have some populist resonance with the voters. These might include a hike in the minimum wage to $10, temporary moratoria on home foreclosures, and requiring all employers to provide health insurance.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/28

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 3:05 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk has drawn another seemingly-minor challenger in the GOP primary. John Arrington, an African-American former city councilor from Chicago's southern suburb of Harvey, will run. He also sought the party's nomination for the same seat in 2004 after GOP primary winner Jack Ryan dropped out, although the state party gave the nomination to the much more fun Alan Keyes.

• NC-Sen, NC-07: As most people expected, Rep. Mike McIntyre announced that he will run for re-election instead of for the Senate seat held by Richard Burr. Which is just as well, as McIntyre is pretty conservative and also needed to hold down his reddish district. SoS Elaine Marshall is probably the biggest name left who's sounding interested in the Senate race.

• OH-Sen: George Voinovich had one of his occasional moments of independence the other day, telling the Columbus Dispatch that too many conservative southerners (specifically citing Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn) are dragging down the party's brand nationwide. "They get on TV and go 'errrr, errrrr,'" he said. "People hear them and say, 'These people, they're southerners. The party's being taken over by southerners. What they hell they got to do with Ohio?'" (I'm not quite sure what "errrr, errrr" means -- maybe it's supposed to be some sort of Frankenstein's Monster noise -- but otherwise it's spot on.)

• CT-Gov: State senator Gary LeBeau, from East Hartford, seems to be the first Democrat to actually announce his candidacy for Governor. He's been a Senator since 1996. Potential candidates he may face in the primary include Stamford mayor Daniel Malloy, SoS Susan Bysiewicz (both of whom have outpaced incumbent Governor Jodi Rell at fundraising so far), former state House speaker James Amman, and former Senate candidate Ned Lamont.

• MI-Gov: Although Lt. Gov. John Cherry seems on track to the Dem nomination, he got another primary opponent, former state Rep. John Freeman. Freeman's hook is strong ties with organized labor, but Cherry is also friendly with labor. State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith is also in the race, and former MSU football coach George Perles is all but in.

• MN-Gov: Will he or won't he? After the news broke last night that Norm Coleman wasn't planning to run for Governor, that has been updated today to reflect that he won't really decide until some point in spring 2010... which seems intended to give his personal brand some time to, uh, recover his interminable contesting of the Senate election, but still sounds very odd, as the party's endorsing convention is in late April, giving him almost no time to ramp up.

• SD-Gov: If there's one job that's even more thankless than being state Senate minority leader in South Dakota, it's being the Democrats' gubernatorial candidate in South Dakota. Kudos to Scott Heideprem for doing both. Likely GOP contenders include Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Senate majority leader Dave Knudsen.

• TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison is already shaking up her campaign staff, confronted with polls that show her faltering in the gubernatorial primary as incumbent Rick Perry consolidates the hard-core base with his ranting against the feds. Campaign manager Rick Wiley is out, replaced by Terry Sullivan.

• CA-26: Rep. David Dreier has reimbursed himself an unusually high $200,000 out of his congressional campaign funds this decade, without the proper level of itemization required by the FEC, and watchdog groups are starting to wonder why. He says these are mostly mundane food expenses and that he'll provide additional documentation if the FEC makes him. Hopefully he's not making the same mistake a lot of small-time crooks make: when you launder money, you don't put it in the Dreier afterwards.

• FL-16: With state Sen. Dave Aronberg running for AG, our next best bet is probably St. Lucie Co. Commissioner Chris Craft, and he's "leaning" toward jumping into the race against freshman GOPer Tom Rooney in the next few weeks.

• LA-02: The first Democrat to announce a run against improbable GOP Rep. Joseph Cao is state Rep. Juan LaFonta. LaFonta had been rumored to be thinking about avoiding the Dem primary and running as an Independent, but won't. State Rep. Cedric Richmond, who lost last year's primary, and State Sen. Cheryl Grey Evans also sound likely to get in.

• MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark made her run official, filing the paperwork for her candidacy ysterday. She'll face off against 06 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg and former IP member Maureen Reed in the primary.

• MS-01: This has been expected since state Sen. Merle Flowers said he wouldn't run, but state Sen. Alan Nunnelee made it official yesterday, filing to run against Rep. Travis Childers. Nunnelee's opening salvo against Blue Dog Childers was that he votes with Nancy Pelosi "100 percent." Which is true, if by 100%, you actually mean 61%.

• TX-32: Here's a profile of Grier Raggio, the locally-prominent attorney who's running for the Democrats in the 32nd. The district still is Republican-leaning, but demographics are poised to move it quickly in our direction.

• FL-St. House: Term limits look like they'll cut a sizable swath through the GOP delegation in Florida's state House, with Republicans facing 25 open seats in 2010 -- many of which are narrowly GOP-leaning and in Dem-trending central Florida -- compared with only three for Democrats. Dems are starting out in a very deep hole in the state House, so an outright takeover isn't likely, but it may bring them closer to balance.

OH-Gov/OH-Sen: Strickland Weak; SSP Changes to "Lean D"

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 9:02 PM EDT

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44
John Kasich (R): 39
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4%)

R2K is now the third straight pollster to peg Strickland in the mid-to-low 40s, apparently solving the OH-Gov polling mystery. This is not a pretty chart:

One important thing to note, though: R2K has Obama's favorables at 59-35 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac pegs them at 49-44. R2K is probably the outlier, though, as the two firms show similar favorables for Strickland, and Q's job approval numbers for Obama now match up with PPP's.

As a result of this recent nosedive, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on OH-Gov from Likely Dem to Lean Dem. Of course, it's early; if Strickland can pull out of this tailspin, then we'll be ready to adjust our rating once again as needed.

R2K also looked at the Senate race:

Lee Fisher (D): 22
Jennifer Brunner (D): 17
Undecided: 61
(MoE: ±5%)

Lee Fisher (D): 42
Rob Portman (R): 35
Undecided: 23

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40
Rob Portman (R): 36
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers are very similar to those shown by Quinnipiac and PPP.

RaceTracker: OH-Gov | OH-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 7/9

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 12:02 PM EDT

• IL-Gov: GOP state Sen. Kirk Dillard formally announced his entrance into the race today.

• MI-09: Former GOP state Rep. Andrew Raczkowski has filed paperwork to run against Dem Rep. Gary Peters in this D+2 district. "Rocky," as he is known, got hammered by Carl Levin in the 2002 Senate race, 61-38.

• MN-06: Dem state Sen. Tarryl Clark, generally considered a possible MN-Gov candidate, may turn her attention instead to Michele Bachmann. Of course, she'd face a contested primary against El Tinklenberg (who was last seen giving $250,000 from his unexpected 2008 surplus to the DCCC).

• NC-Sen: Civitas has Sen. Richard Burr's favorables at 31-19, which is the weakest they've been all year. I don't quite understand why 50% are either undecided or haven't heard enough, though. Meanwhile, Burr's pollster Paul Shumaker, who did a garbagey poll for Burr and then pretended it was an independent survey, will now pay for the poll out of his own pocket and call it an in-kind contribution to the campaign. Nice try, bucko.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has Chris Christie up 46-39. Believe it or not, that's good news - last month, it was 51-38. Don't get too excited, though. With leaners, it's 53-41. Obama can't show up here soon enough.

• NV-Sen: Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn advised John Ensign to pay off his mistress's million-dollar mortgage and move her & her husband out-of-state. Seriously.

• NYC-Mayor: Another poll - this time from Marist - shows Bloombo under 50, and his re-elects are an uninspiring 44-51, despite the fact that he's blanketed the airwaves with zillions of ads for months. The problem is that Comptroller Bill Thompson (who clocks in at 35) doesn't seem to be running much of a campaign.

• New York: Ken Rudin makes an interesting point - if you count "new LG" Richard Ravitch, four of NY's six statewide elected officials... weren't elected to the positions they now hold. Comptroller Tom DiNapoli was appointed when Alan Hevesi resigned; Gov. David Paterson was elevated when Eliot Spitzer resigned; Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed when Hillary Clinton resigned; and now Paterson is attempting to appoint Ravitch. Only Sen. Chuck Schumer and AG Andy Cuomo faced voters for their current jobs.

• OH-Sen: A good get for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher - he just received the endorsement of the 134,000-strong Ohio branch of the United Auto Workers union.

• UT-Sen: Just when you thought the Utah GOP Senate primary couldn't get any zanier and more chock-full of wingnuts, along comes news that new Rep. Jason Chaffetz -- rising star of the movement conservatives, who just vaulted into power by out-conservativing Chris Cannon in a 2008 primary -- is now thinking about a challenge to the establishment's Bob Bennett. It'd be a pretty brash move by Chaffetz, especially since AG Mark Shurtleff is already mounting a strong primary challenge from the far right. (C)

• VA-02: Scott Rigell, who owns car dealerships "throughout the Virginia beach area," has filed paperwork to run against Dem Rep. Glenn Nye in this R+5 district. Rigell, like the vast majority of auto dealers, is of course a Republican, but he did donate $1,000 to Obama last year.

• WA-Sen: Not that you were probably sitting up at night worrying about Patty Murray's re-election prospects, but a poll by local pollster Elway finds her looking pretty good with 53-34 job approval. 44% say they would re-elect her and 33% say they wouldn't, with the rest taking a wait-and-see attitude to see what sort of opposition the Washington GOP can scrape up. (C)

• Census: Looks like we may finally get a floor vote on Census Director Robert Graves' confirmation, who is currently subject to holds by both David Vitter and Richard Shelby (over use of sampling techniques and ACORN's involvement in the census); Harry Reid is planning a cloture vote now that we're eight months away from the April 1 count. (C)

SSP Daily Digest: 7/8 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jul 08, 2009 at 9:29 AM EDT

• CA-47: The GOP has heavily touted Assemblyman Van Tran, who is waging an uphill campaign against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 district. Tran, however, may face an additional hurdle: businessman & veteran Quang Pham, who just filed papers. Politico explains that there is "lingering anger with Tran's role in a bitter contest for a Board of Supervisors seat in 2007, where Tran denounced the winning candidate as a communist."

• S. Fla.: A couple of entries for the Where Are They Now? files. Joe Garcia, who ran against "Super" Mario Diaz-Balart in FL-25 last year, just accepted an Obama administration job - he'll become Director of the Office of Minority Economic Impact for the Energy Dept. Meanwhile, Annette Taddeo, who took on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in FL-18, has declined to run for CFO to replace the outgoing Alex Sink.

• FL-08: No need for me to summarize: "After saying for weeks that he would let people know by the Fourth of July whether he plans to run for Congress next year, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty has left town on a holiday cruise without making a decision." What a wank.

• FL-12: Despite the GOP's effort to clear the primary for state Rep. Dennis Ross in this open seat being vacated by Rep. Adam Putnam, Polk County Comm'r Randy Wilkinson formally announced his candidacy late last week.

• IL-Sen: Looks like Illinois Republicans are growing tired of waiting for Capt. Kirk to beam back from the planet Vulcan. NRSC officials are meeting with Plan B, aka IL GOP chair Andy McKenna. McKenna previously sought this seat in 2004, coming in fourth in the Republican primary, well behind Dairy King Jim Oberweis. Crain's Chicago Business charitably explains McKenna "never has had much of a following among the party's conservative reform wing."

• NH-Sen: It's starting to look like Sarah Palin is Kelly Ayotte's political mentor in more ways that one. First, Ayotte announces she's going to quit her current job in the middle of her term. Then, responding to the fact that she pledged to complete her entire four-year appointment, she offers this incoherent non-answer:

"I would say that at the time of my reappointment no one could have predicted the political future. The political landscape has changed drastically since then. Clearly the intent was to continue serving, but I think in fairness no one could have predicted the changes that have occurred on the political landscape.

Maybe she was just too busy reading all the magazines to make any sense.

• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine is up with a new negative ad. Meh. It doesn't do it for me.

• OH-Sen: Haven't we heard this before? SoS Jennifer Brunner has penned a 1,300-word post on her website decrying the "insiders" who supposedly want her out of the primary... and back in May, she also sent a letter to supporters saying she wouldn't quit the race. I don't know why she feels the need to keep saying this. Also, in a sign that things are only likely to get worse before they get better, she includes this flourish: "If this race for the U.S. Senate is about the trappings of insider politics, then I suspect Lee Fisher will be your man." Gonna be a long year.

• OK-01: Rep. John Sullivan, who just returned to work after a monthlong stay at an alcohol rehab facility, said that he would seek re-election. Rep. Patrick Kennedy is also back after receiving similar treatment.

• PA-Sen: Chris Cillizza reports that the AFL-CIO "will almost certainly weigh in" on the expected Specter vs. Sestak primary, but isn't giving any hints about whose side they'll take.

• WI-07: It looks like another former "Real World" contestant is gearing up for a run for Congress. Last cycle, Kevin Powell (season one) got crushed by Rep. Ed Towns in NY-10, but is apparently back for another round. Meanwhile, out in Wisconsin, Real World-er Sean Duffy (season six) is weighing a challenge to Rep. Dave Obey. There is one thing Duffy must remember.

OH-Sen: Dem Numbers Slip Against Portman

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 8:34 PM EDT

Lee Fisher (D): 37 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 33 (31)
Undecided: 26 (26)

Lee Fisher (D): 36
Tom Ganley (R): 30
Undecided: 31

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 34 (32)
Undecided: 29 (27)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35
Tom Ganley (R): 31
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±2.8%)

While they don't show nearly as big a decline as they did with their Ohio gubernatorial numbers, Quinnipiac also has Democrats slipping in the Senate race. I'm prepared to believe that Democratic fortunes are really heading southward, but I do have to wonder if Q is overstating things. In May, they had Obama's job approval at 62-31 in the Buckeye State. Now he's at 49-44. Did his numbers really collapse so dramatically here, despite only a slight downtick nationwide? Perhaps, but I'd like to see confirmation elsewhere.

Anyhow, Quinnipiac has also started testing Tom Ganley's name - he's the wealthy car dealer who recently made his entrace into the race official. Portman has a 33-10 lead on Ganley in the primary. On the Dem side, Lee Fisher's lead over Jennifer Brunner has shrunk to 24-21 (from 31-26), with a lot more folks undecided than previously. With the primary still ages away, I don't think we can read a lot into these numbers.

RaceTracker: OH-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 7/1

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 2:33 PM EDT

• OH-Sen: Car dealer Tom Ganley announced his candidacy for the GOP primary for the open Senate seat. (I thought he'd already announced on April 2, but I guess he needed to remind the media of his existence.) Ganley owns 38 dealerships, so he's not just your average used car dealer; he vows to self-fund significantly in his uphill fight against Rob Portman.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota's Independence Party seems determined to field a major candidate in 2010's ultra-confusing gubernatorial race, and at the top of their wish list is ex-Rep. Jim Ramstad. Ramstad's name has occasionally been linked to the race as a Republican, but he may be too moderate to make it out of the activist-dominated nominating process. Ramstad's popularity would make him one to watch in the general, but he'd be laboring under the IP label, whose candidates (including moderate Dem ex-Rep. Tim Penny, who ran for Governor in 2002) have had trouble getting out of the 10-15% range this decade.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another poll of the New Jersey governor's race, and while it still has Jon Corzine losing to Chris Christie, I'm going to file this in the "good news" column, as it has Corzine down by only 6, with Christie under 50%: 45-39. Interestingly, New Jerseyites seem to understand that the state has become fools gold to Republicans: despite their preferences, they still think Corzine will win, 46-38. Corzine also has a campaign appearance scheduled for July 16 with someone who's actually maintaining a 62% approval rating in New Jersey (which would translate into about 105% approval in a normal state): Barack Obama. Which, I think, is the first in-the-flesh appearance Obama has made on behalf of any candidate since getting elected.

• NY-Gov: Maybe I'm feeling extra charitable today, but I'm also going to file yesterday's Marist poll in the "good news" column, because it actually shows David Paterson beating someone: he tops feeble ex-Rep. Rick Lazio 41-40 in a potential matchup. Of course, he still loses to everyone else, whether Andrew Cuomo in a primary (69-24) or Rudy Giuliani in the general (54-37, although that's also an improvement from May). In case you're wondering how a Cuomo/Lazio matchup would go, Cuomo would win 68-22.

• SC-Gov: Well, maybe publicly proclaiming that your mistress is your "soulmate" and that you've had run-ins with other women (but never crossed "the sex line") isn't the best way to keep your job. After it looked like Mark Sanford was successfully digging in for the last few days, the tide seems to be turning: Columbia's The State says that 12 (of 27) state Senate Republicans have signed a letter to Sanford asking him to resign (including state Sen. Larry Grooms, who's running to replace Sanford and would suffer having to run against LG Andre Bauer as an incumbent), with 4 more on the record as supporting it but not signing it, or leaning in that direction; Jim DeMint also asked Sanford to pack it in. While the Columbia and Charleston papers haven't called for resignation, the News in Greenville yesterday joined the Spartanburg Herald-Journal (the twin cities of the state's bible belt) in publishing an editorial doing so.

• NY-23: Looks like moderate GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who has attracted the interest of both parties in the NY-23 special election, is going full-speed-ahead on the GOP side. She told supporters she'll be "aggressively seeking her party's nomination."

• NY-29: Corning (pop. 11,000) mayor Tom Reed announced that he'll run against freshman Rep. Eric Massa in 2010. Reed seems to be running as an out-and-proud moderate, with the Main Street Partnership expected to support him. The NRCC has identified him as a leading recruit but hasn't endorsed him, with several other candidates reportedly still exploring the race. (For what it's worth, Corning is the hometown of Amo Houghton, former Corning Glass CEO and popular GOP moderate who held this seat for decades.)

• PA-15: I'm starting to like Bethlehem mayor John Callahan more and more, as it's come out that in 2005 he proved he can match Rahm Emanuel F-bomb-for-F-bomb. Callahan's response to Emanuel's needling that "Are you tired of being fucking mayor yet?" was "It's better than being a fucking congressman." (The only reason this is relevant today is that the NRCC is now using this incident to argue that he's now disqualified from becoming a congressman.)

• TN-03: Former GOP state chair Robin Smith made it official, that she's running to replace Zach Wamp in the 3rd. She had previously quit her party job to focus full-time on exploring the race, so no surprise here; Smith is the likely GOP frontrunner.

• NRCC: The NRCC wasted no time in launching ads to go after the potentially vulnerable House Dems who voted yes on cap-and-trade. Rep. Tom Perriello is the recipient of the dread TV ad this time, while they also took out radio spots and robocalls against Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, Bruce Braley, Betsy Markey, Vic Snyder, Baron Hill, Mary Jo Kilroy, Alan Grayson, Zack Space, Bart Gordon, Debbie Halvorson, John Boccieri, and Ike Skelton.

• Votes (pdf): The Hill has a handy scorecard arranged by district lean while showing how many times vulnerable Dem representatives have broken ranks on 15 important bills. The biggest defector, unsurprisingly, is Bobby Bright, who flipped 13 out of 15 times. (Compared with Chet Edwards, in an even more difficult district but who defected only twice.) The guy who stands out like a sore thumb, though, is Joe Donnelly, who defected 8 times in IN-02, a district that Obama actually won, 54-45.

• MS-St. House: Democrats held the line in a special election in Mississippi state House district 82, as Democrat Wilber Jones held the seat. This is an African-American majority seat, but attracted some attention because the GOP ran a credible African-American candidate, Bill Marcy... but he still went on to lose, 66-34. Dems hold the edge in the House, 75-47.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/26

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 3:11 PM EDT

• KS-Sen: Rep. Todd Tiahrt, facing a big primary fight for the GOP nomination against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran, got a key endorsement that will help him out-conservative his red-state colleague, from prominent anti-abortion group Kansans for Life. Moran, meanwhile, got another establishment endorsement of questionable utility to the Kansas electorate, from South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

• NC-Sen: Insider Advantage polled Richard Burr's approvals, and like many other pollsters (including PPP, the messenger that the Burr campaign has chosen to attack), found that Burr's approvals are low and his unknowns are possibly catastrophically high. Burr clocked in at 39/31 approval, with 30% with no opinion.

• NH-Sen: John Sununu Sr. now says that John Sununu Jr. will make a decision (or will have his daddy make a decision for him, more likely) "within a week or so" as to whether or not he'll run for Senate next year. Sr. also says that AG Kelly Ayotte will step aside if Jr. runs, which may be news to Ayotte. GOP insiders seem to think that odds are against Sununu running.

• OH-Sen: Rob Portman, G.W. Bush's former trade rep and OMB Director, has taken on a strange approach to selling himself to voters: that he's a consummate Washington insider, going so far as to say that he knows "where the bodies are buried" (way to write the opposition's advertisements word-for-word for them!). In a state where there's a lot of populist indignation over job losses and outsourcing, emphasizing your technocratic elitism is somewhere past tone-deaf and out in the realm of political malpractice.

• PA-Sen: More signs that the party is finally coalescing around Pat Toomey as nominee: another endorsement from one its sitting Reps., Joe Pitts. (Pitts is probably the most conservative GOPer left in the PA delegation, so no surprise here.)

• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd still in the hospital, Gov. Joe Manchin sought to tamp down speculation that he was looking into potential replacement Senators (such as ex-Gov. Gaston Caperton).

• IL-Gov: Bob Schillerstrom became the third Republican this week to announce his gubernatorial candidacy. The DuPage County Board chairman had had an exploratory committee open for several months, so this was expected. A 4th entrant, State Sen. Kirk Dillard, also from Chicago's western suburbs, says he'll announce his candidacy on July 8.

• MI-Gov: A third Democratic candidate got into the governor's race today: state Rep. (and former state Senator) Alma Wheeler Smith. Smith, who's the only African-American in the field, also ran in the gubernatorial primary in 2002.

• NJ-Gov: Strategic Vision polled the New Jersey governor's race; no surprises here, as they found Chris Christie beating Jon Corzine 51-39. Christie was also busy yesterday in Washington testifying before the House on the no-bid monitoring contracts that Christie awarded while US Attorney (including to his former boss, John Ashcroft); look for this to become a prime issue in the race (if Corzine has even half-a-clue how to campaign).

• NM-Gov, NM-02: Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce, last seen getting annihilated in last year's Senate race, says he's pushing back his announcement on whether he'll run for governor, for his old House seat, or something else to somewhere between July 20 and July 27.

• PA-Gov: Here's one state where the gubernatorial field is actually managing to get smaller: Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham opted out of the Democratic primary race (and said that he isn't interested in the Lt. Gov. slot). This may give a small boost to Philly-area businessman Tom Knox, as the Dem side's two biggest-names, Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner are both from the Pittsburgh area.

• CA-10: Rep. Ellen Tauscher was finally confirmed as Undersecretary of State last night, after Sen. Jon Kyl dropped his hold on her. (She's also getting married on Saturday, so it's a big week.) Tauscher's last day in the House is today, so this means the wheels are now officially in motion for the CA-10 special election.

• FL-12: Looks like the GOP will have a primary in the race to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, depsite their efforts to grease the skids for former state Rep. Dennis Ross. Polk Co. Commissioner Randy Wilkinson has been taking steps to enter the race as well.

• LA-03: Here's a potential Dem contender for the potentially open seat currently occupied by Rep. Charlie Melancon, who hadn't been mentioned in previous discussions (either from SSP or Roll Call or The Hill): Steve Angelle, who heads the state Natural Resources Department and used to be President of St. Martin Parish.

• SC-04: Rep. Bob Inglis is taking an unusual approach to a potentially bruising primary fight in 2010: instead of trying to out-conservative his opponents, he's saying the GOP needs to "lose the stinking rot of self-righteousness." In a Washington Wire interview, he said that the Mark Sanford Experience shows that "This may be an opportunity to extend a little grace to other people, to realize that maybe it's not 100% this way or that way," and referred to the Bob Inglis who was a zealous Clinton impeachment manager in 1998 as "Bob Inglis 1.0," who was a "'self-righteous' expletive."

• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton announced that he'll be resigning his job on July 10 in order to campaign full-time in his primary challenge against Rep. Steve Cohen. Since Herenton has tried to resign (and changed his mind) at least once before, after five increasingly rocky terms in office, this sounds more like a relief to Herenton instead of giving something up.

• DCCC: The DCCC is running radio spots over the July 4 weekend against seven vulnerable House GOPers: Ken Calvert, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Dan Lungren, Mike McCaul, Lee Terry, and Joe Wilson. They're getting attacked for voting for war supplementals during the Bush administration and now happening to vote against them now that a Demmycrat is in charge.

• The Tubes: Hotline On Call compares and contrasts the mellifluous email stylings of Gov. Sanford with the SMS billet-doux of Detroit ex-Mayor Kilpatrick. This outlines the foundational divide between email and texting: in SMS you automatically sound crazier, but it also prevents you from banging out divinity school dropout diatribes about First Corinthians. (Ben)

OH-Sen: Dems Move Into Lead

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jun 23, 2009 at 1:36 PM EDT

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40 (34)
Rob Portman (R): 32 (42)
Undecided: 29 (24)

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (39)
Rob Portman (R): 32 (41)
Undecided: 27 (20)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

The trendlines are a little musty, but they look quite good for the Democrats, despite pretty mediocre favorable ratings (low thirties on either side of the equation for both Dems). Brunner's faves are largely unchanged, but Fisher's seen a bit of a slide. Portman's favorables are also worse, though - 22-34 now, after a 28-23 reading in January. The samples are also a little different - it was 45D-35R-20I in the first poll, and 50D-35R-15I in this one.

Research 2000/Daily Kos will likely be in the field here soon. We will hopefully shed some light on the baffling OH-Gov polling disparities, and we'll probably also test the Senate Dem primary.

RaceTracker: OH-Sen