• NH-Sen: Joe Biden will be on duty to help Paul Hodes (who hasn't set the world on fire with his fundraising so far) at a DC fundraiser on Oct. 5.
• SC-Sen: Democrats appear to have a candidate with some financial heft to take on Sen. Jim DeMint next year. The Indigo Journal writes that Rock Hill attorney Chad McGowan recently told local Democrats that he'll be running full-time for the Senate nomination beginning in early October. (J)
• CA-Gov: Looks like the period of meditation on the Governor's race that Jerry Brown promised us didn't take very long: he's opening his exploratory committee today. Meanwhile, Meg Whitman managed to poach another member of the Steve Poizner camp; former state GOP chair and former Assembly minority leader Bob Naylor dropped his Poizner endorsement and switched to Whitman.
• NJ-Gov: Yet another pollster sees the same story developing in New Jersey (this time it's Quinnipiac). The race is tightening to within the margin of error, but it's not because Jon Corzine is getting much better (he's still not breaking 40); instead, Chris Christie is slowly deflating, while moderate independent Chris Daggett gains. Today's poll has Christie up 43-39-12, a definite improvement over last month's 47-37-9.
• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds is finally playing one of his aces in the hole: Sen. Mark Warner, who generally polls as by far the most popular political figure in the state, cut an ad for Deeds and will be campaiging for him on weekends. Deeds also got an endorsement which, superficially, seems like a big coup, but isn't, really: former GOP governor Linwood Holton. (The moderate Holton is father-in-law to Tim Kaine and endorsed Barack Obama in 2008.)
• NH-02: It looks like ex-Rep. Charlie Bass is getting off the fence and moving closer to an effort to reclaim his old seat, which he lost to Paul Hodes in 2006 but will be an open seat in 2010. He'll be opening his exploratory committee tomorrow. (Although -- maybe this is a possible sign of ambivalence -- he says he's opening the committee because he needs somewhere by quarter's end to put all the unsolicited checks he's received lately, or else he'll have to return them.) He'll probably still face a primary against the more conservative 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, assuming he runs.
• NY-23: As expected, Gov. Paterson has set Nov. 3rd for the NY-23 special election, the same day as other elections in the state (such as the NYC mayoral race), and of course the gubernatorial races in NJ and VA. GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava also got an endorsement that falls into the "as expected" category: from the Main Street Partnership, the ideological caucus for the dwindling ranks of moderate House Republicans.
• PA-04, 08: Two sophomore Democrats in Pennsylvania both got Republican challengers. In the Pittsburgh suburbs' R+6 4th, Keith Rothfus, a Republican lawyer and former Dept. of Homeland Security official, will challenge Rep. Jason Altmire. (Apparently the NRCC's top recruit, state House minority whip Mike Turzai, has been balking so far.) Meanwhile, in the less challenging 8th in the Philly burbs, computer consultant Jeffrey Schott is slated to run against Rep. Patrick Murphy.
• CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night's special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It's a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I'm wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)
• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer "that Jew" when he couldn't think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as "this new minority judge." Don't confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who's the one who thought you should "get shots" before going down to southeast Arkansas.
• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk -- who's had some past problems with the space-time continuum -- has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he's been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.
• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada's other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can't count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.
• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood's political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.
• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won't run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)
• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue's job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let's just say we should be glad she isn't up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that's the worst individual performance of anyone they've polled this year except for Roland Burris!
• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who's running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can't really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?
• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle's tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn't been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.
• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He's joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that's been linked to the teabagging movement) on their "Patients First Tour" in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).
• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit 'eject,' he's starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.
• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he'll announce his campaign plans for "statewide office," without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor's race. Does Ohio have a statewide "dogcatcher" position?
• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.
• NC-Sen: Republican pollster Civitas poked at the Senate race, not doing head-to-heads but looking at favorables for Richard Burr and two of his likeliest challengers, SoS Elaine Marshall and Rep. Mike McIntyre. Marshall and McIntyre are little-known, with 12/7 favorables for Marshall and 13/10 and McIntyre (although he was at 38/12 in his district). The bad news for Burr? He's barely doing better than them, with 31/19 favorables (meaning 50% don't know him or have no opinion).
• NY-Sen-B: Marist dribbles out the Senate half of its newest New York poll today (Gov was yesterday), and it finds a super-tight race in the Dem primary in wake of yesterday's sorta-kinda entry by Carolyn Maloney: Maloney leads Kirsten Gillibrand, 38-37 (compared with a 36-31 Gillibrand lead in May). Gillibrand wins against both George Pataki (46-42, up from a 46-38 deficit last time) and Peter King (48-32). Marist doesn't do general election head-to-heads with Maloney, although for some reason they poll a GOP primary between Pataki and King (51-36 for Pataki) despite the decreasing likelihood that either of them run.
Also of interest: Bill Clinton will be appearing at a Maloney fundraiser scheduled for July 20. Clinton isn't wading into the race with an endorsement at this point, though; this was in the works long before Maloney announced her run, as payback for Maloney's 2008 primary support for Hillary Clinton, and he also headlined a Gillibrand fundraiser in March.
• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey got another endorsement from one of the more conservative members of Pennsylvania's House GOP delegation: PA-09's Bill Shuster.
• AL-Gov: The Democratic field in the governor's race in Alabama seems to be solidifying; the last question mark, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, announced that she won't be running. With a lot of establishment figures waiting on the fence to see if an alternative to Rep. Artur Davis and Ag Comm. Ron Sparks shows up, expect them to start choosing sides soon. Davis, meanwhile, has been staffing up with some key political players, adding Joey Ceci and David Mowery to his team (who managed the successful campaigns of freshman Reps. Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright).
• CA-Gov: Sure, California's an expensive state, but Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman have reported gigantic hauls even by the Golden State's outsized standards. Brown raised $7.3 million in the year's first half, while Whitman raised $6.5 million. Steve Poizner and Gavin Newsom raised huge sums and are still far behind -- Poizner raised $1.3 million and loaned himself another $4 million, while Newsom raised $1.6 million, much of it online.
• MN-Gov: The tradmed seems to be intent today on talking up Norm Coleman's next logical step as being running for Governor of Minnesota, although Minnesota reporters and politicians in the know are trying to point out the sheer ridiculousness of that idea. (If Norm's going to be doing any running soon, it's running away from the FBI, as they investigate his links to Nasser Kazeminy.)
• RI-Gov: The Democratic primary for the open Rhode Island Governor's seat was looking to be a three-way slugfest, but Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts yesterday announced that she would run for re-election instead of for Gov. Although she had started staffing up for the race, she couldn't have been encouraged by poll numbers which showed her at a disadvantage with likely opponents Treasurer Frank Caprio and AG Patrick Lynch.
• SC-Gov: Gov. Mark Sanford seems to have taken a few steps backwards this week. A snap poll from yesterday by SUSA now finds 69% of South Carolinians saying resign, as opposed to 28% saying stay. 63% say they have "no trust" in Sanford. Here's an interesting red flag: only 20% say Lt. Gov/party boy Andre Bauer is "completely prepared" to become Governor, with 38% saying "somewhat prepared" and 34% saying "not prepared."
• WI-Gov: Real estate developer and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who held WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 before losing narrowly to Russ Feingold, announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday. Neumann's entry had been widely anticipated; he'll face off against Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary.
• CA-45: With Rep. Mary Bono Mack having defected on the cap-and-trade vote, the rightosphere has been calling for her head. Their favored replacement, term-limited state Senator Dennis Hollingsworth, quickly said "no" to a primary challenge, so their wish-list has turned to ex-state Sens. Jim Battin and Ray Haynes and ex-state Rep. Bonnie Garcia.
• IL-14: A second GOP challenger got into the race against Rep. Bill Foster, although this guy doesn't sound like he'll pose much of a threat to Ethan Hastert for the nom. Jeff Danklefsen hasn't run for office before and is "maintenance manager for a property management company."
• LA-03: The Hill reported last week that Democratic efforts to find a replacement to Rep. Charlie Melancon have focused on state Rep. Gary Smith, who was going to run for the open seat in 2004 but deferred to Melancon. State Rep. Fred Mills was also interested, but state Rep. Damon Baldone, who might be the highest-profile candidate, is about to run in a special election for a state Senate seat and is unlikely to follow that with a U.S. House run.
• PA-06: With the 2nd quarter just wrapped up, look for lots of financial reports to start getting leaked. Here's a nice place to start: Doug Pike, in the 6th, is looking at a haul of over $500K for the quarter, thanks a recent D.C. fundraiser starring Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy.
• WI-08: We're building up a backlog of Republicans trying to take on Rep. Steve Kagen. Businessman Reid Ribble jumped into the field, joining Door Co. Supervisor Marc Savard and Brown Co. Supervisor Andy Williams.
• WV-02: With some prodding from the DCCC, Gov. Joe Manchin's former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, is looking into challenging Rep. Shelly Capito Moore in the Charleston-based 2nd.
• LA-Sen: David Vitter may get a serious primary challenger after all (Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins and ex-Rep. John Cooksey have declined, and SoS Jay Dardenne has been laying low). It's someone we haven't seen in a while, though: former state Elections commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who let her interest be known last week. Terrell's last appearance in the spotlight was the 2002 Senate race, where she lost narrowly to Mary Landrieu. Terrell is the only Republican woman to have ever held office in Louisiana.
• NY-Sen-B: Like a giant game of Whack-a-mole, Kirsten Gillibrand jammed a couple potential primary challengers back into their holes last week, but now a new one popped up: Rep. Jose Serrano. The Bronx-based Serrano might be able to make a lot of hay out of the immigration issue, but he may not have the cash to make a race of it (although as an Appropriations cardinal, he's well-connected). Meanwhile, Gillibrand nailed down endorsements from three other Reps. -- John Hall, Mike Arcuri, and Scott Murphy -- as well as Nassau County Dem party chair Jay Jacobs (important because he has a lot of sway over Rep. Carolyn McCarthy).
• PA-Sen: Roll Call tried to pin down the Democratic House members from Pennsylvania on whether or not they'd endorse Arlen Specter in a potential Democratic primary with Rep. Joe Sestak. Interestingly, PA's most liberal Dem, Chaka Fattah, was probably the most enthusiastic and unconditional endorser of Specter, while its most conservative Dem, Jason Altmire, was most reluctant to offer an endorsement one way or the other, although more out of admiration for Sestak than on ideological grounds. Tim Holden also endorsed Specter and Bob Brady came as close as possible to it, while Patrick Murphy took a "wait and see" attitude and the others simply punted the question.
• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren (having recently shot himself in the foot by calling Charles Schumer "that Jew") is now vacillating and may not run in the GOP Senate primary after all, despite having announced his candidacy.
• IL-Sen: Here's some confirmation on what we speculated last week: Rep. Mark Kirk isn't lost in space; he's just deferring any decisions on the Senate race because he's waiting to see what AG Lisa Madigan does. He reportedly won't run for Senate if Madigan does.
• FL-Gov: Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson will announce today that he won't run for the open governor's seat, leaving an unimpeded path to the GOP nomination for AG Bill McCollum. Bronson is term-limited out of his job in 2010 and looking to move up, but couldn't buck the pressure from state chair Jim Greer -- I mean, the guy doesn't have a Death Wish.
• CO-Gov: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis officially filed yesterday to enter the Colorado governor's race, amidst sniping that he started soliciting funds before filing his campaign paperwork. State Senate minority leader Josh Penry also launched into an oblique attack on McInnis, suggesting he might be interested in a primary battle.
• CA-Gov: Dianne Feinstein, occasionally rumored to be interested in what has to be the least desirable job in America (California governor), has said that she "might" run for governor next year, depending on her assessment of the other candidates' plans for dealing with California's seemingly perpetual budget crisis. Polls that have included Feinstein have shown her dominating the race if she got in.
• IL-13: 71-year-old Rep. Judy Biggert just confirmed that she'll be running for re-election in 2010, despite a return engagement with Scott Harper, who held her to 54%, and the district's shift to only R+1. (Of course, her inclusion in the first round of 10 in the NRCC's Patriots program Tuesday showed her hand already.)
• AL-02: Republicans have at least one candidate lined up to go against Rep. Bobby Bright as he seeks his first re-election in this R+16 district: 32-year-old Montgomery city councilor and attorney Martha Roby. GOP State Rep. Jay Love, who narrowly lost to Bright last time, may also try again.
• MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who narrowly won a 3-way primary in 2008, may have to face off against both of the same challengers again in 2010: state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters. Former interim mayor Ken Cockrel also is mentioned as interested. Kilpatrick may be less vulnerable in 2010, though, as the brouhaha surrounding her son (former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick) recedes in the distance.
• Maps: Here's another interesting map for the geography nerds out there. It's a map of which party controls all the state House seats throughout the South. (It's a lot bluer than you might initially think.)
• NY-20 (pdf): There's light at the end of the tunnel in the NY-20 count, and as we get closer, Scott Murphy's numbers keep going up. This morning's BoE tally gives him a lead of 167, following the addition of more votes from Columbia, Dutchess, and Warren Counties (all of which Murphy won on Election Day).
Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday's court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco's turf, the Tedisco camp's heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)
• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It's Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it's unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).
• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn't stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).
• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn't a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won't support Arlen Specter's re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey's bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.
• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn't include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven't taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)
• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it's going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren't being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.
• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken's certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he's about the only person left who can drag this out.)
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:
Carnahan Smokes Blunt... In Fundraising
• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.
• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)
Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this... plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don't Ask Don't Tell... be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he's always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)
• Numbers: California's Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.
With conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey set to challenge incumbent Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican Senate primary, I think it's safe to assume that we'll see a bloodbath in which Specter is labeled a convictionless flip-flopper and Toomey is dubbed an unelectable right-winger. No doubt both Specter and Toomey will spend the bulk of their resources just to get through the primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee politically battered and financially near-broke, having to re-build a bankroll from almost scratch.
Naturally, this raises the question: who do you want the Democratic nominee to be? With the Republican nominee starting the general election in rough shape from a bloody primary, and with Pennsylvania Democrats continuing to grow their voter registration edge over Pennsylvania Republicans, Democrats are in the driver's seat. Without further ado, here is the cattle call of potential candidates, in alphabetical order:
District Attorney Lynne Abraham During late-December of last year, both KYW Newsradio 1060 Philadelphia and CBS-3 Philadelphia reported that District Attorney Abraham was considering a bid. As for bio, she was head of the Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority in the 1970's and subsequently a judge on the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas. She has been District Attorney of the City of Philadelphia since 1991 and has won four elections during her tenure - but she has already announced that she is not running for re-election to the post this year. A knock on her as a candidate, though, is related to the strength of her resume: in 2010, she will turn 69-years-old. I don't imagine she'd plan on seeking several six-year terms to build her seniority.
State Representative Dwight Evans The 54-year-old State Representative is a powerhouse in the state Legislature as the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, having served in the state House for nearly thirty years, but has also had his share of electoral losses. He finished third in the 1986 Democratic primary for Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, finished third in the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary, and had fifth-place showings in two crowded Philadelphia Mayoral runs in 1999 and 2007. Still as the Democrats' Appropriations chief for nearly twenty of his thirty years in the state House, he has wielded considerable power for a long time. The Executive Director of the PA-Dems was talking Representative Evans up this past January as a possible 2010 Senate candidate. Representative Evans has done a great deal to improve Philadelphians' lives, but has had difficulty translating that success in bids for higher office.
Congressman Patrick Murphy At only 35-years-old, Congressman Murphy, an Iraq War veteran now serving his second term in Congress, is considered a rising star in the Party. Some of his pluses are quite obvious: his military experience brings unique perspective and his relative youth would allow him to build seniority over the years for Pennsylvania. According to the National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Murphy was the 187th most liberal member and the 240th most conservative member - in other words, he was fairly centrist. Given the political carnage that is expected at the end of Specter-Toomey: The Sequel, PA-Dems may want to elect someone more liberal than Congressman Murphy has been. Also, while Congressman Murphy appears to be a more-than-decent fundraiser, as of the end of 2008, he had just under $150,000 on hand, with just over $100,000 in debt, which means he's starting from nearly scratch on the money front.
Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz Now serving in her third term, Congresswoman Schwartz is one of only two women in Pennsylvania's Congressional delegation. Her bio includes: executive director of the Elizabeth Blackwell Center, a Planned parenthood clinic in Philadelphia, '75-'88; acting Deputy Commissioner of the Philadelphia Department of Human Services, '88-'90; State Senator, '91-'04; Congresswoman, '05-present. According to the National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, Congresswoman Schwartz was the 112th most liberal member and the 316th most conservative member, i.e.she was a bit to Congressman Murphy's political left. Also, known for being a strong fundraiser, she closed out 2008 with just under $2 million on hand and no debt. On Election Day 2010, Congresswoman Schwartz will be 62-years-old, suggesting perhaps only a tenure of two-terms tops if she ran.
Congressman Joe Sestak The 57-year-old military veteran is in his second term in Congress. After graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1974, Congressman Sestak picked up an M.P.A. and a Ph.D. from Harvard before embarking on an impressive naval career. According to the National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Sestak was the 150th most liberal member and the 277th most conservative member, putting him in between Congressman Murphy and Congresswoman Schwartz in the ranking. Also a very solid fundraiser, Congressman Sestak ended 2008 with over $2.9 million on hand and no debt. Back in December, Congressman Sestak's office suggested that he wouldn't be a candidate for Senate in 2010; however, with the new political dynamic of the combative Republican primary, perhaps Congressman Sestak might reconsider.
State Representative Josh Shapiro Like Congressman Murphy, Representative Shapiro is only 35-years-old. He is in his third term in the state Legislature, and was named Deputy Speaker of the House in his second term. Prior to his time in the state Legislature, Representative Shapiro spent about eight years on Capitol Hill working for several elected officials, including service as Chief of Staff to Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Arlen Specter's last Democratic opponent. Representative Shapiro has met with the DSCC to discuss a possible bid; and, he has begun an aggressive outreach campaign to determine whether or not he'll run.
State Board of Education Chairman Joe Torsella The 45-year-old Torsella has worn many hats: state Board of Education Chairman, President and CEO of the National Constitution Center, and Deputy Mayor for Policy and Planning for the City of Philadelphia under then-Mayor and now-Governor Ed Rendell. He also ran for Congress in 2004 and narrowly lost the Democratic primary to now-Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, who won her first term in that election cycle. He is also the only announced candidate for Senate in 2010 on the Democratic side, though he has yet to launch a campaign website (that I can find, anyway) despite having announced two months ago. It is rumored that Torsella enjoys the support of Governor Rendell's political machine behind the scenes. Through contacts from his numerous civic roles and possible assistance from the Rendell machine, Torsella was able to raise a respectable $600,000 in Q1 (having only started campaign fundraising in mid-February). The amount is enough to demonstrate capable fundraising, but far from strong enough to scare off primary challengers, especially members of Congress with seven-figure campaign bankrolls.
State Auditor Jack Wagner Auditor Wagner began serving as a statewide official in this capacity in 2005, succeeding Bob Casey Jr., who, of course, defeated Republican Rick Santorum for Senate in 2006. Prior to his tenure as Auditor, Wagner spent a little over a decade in the Pennsylvania state Senate. Auditor Wagner is also a Purple Heart recipient from his time with the Marine Corps in Vietnam. Auditor Wagner is the only person on this list from western Pennsylvania, which could provide a geographic advantage. On Election Day 2010, Auditor Wagner will be 62-years-old, like Congresswoman Schwartz, suggesting a limit to his possible tenure in the Senate. Additionally, it's been reported that Auditor Wagner has told friends that he will not run for the Senate seat.
Former State Treasurer Robin Wiessmann Former Treasurer Wiessman had a largely financial services background before filling the remainder of Bob Casey's Treasurer term after he ascended to the U.S. Senate. She spent the 90's as President of Artemis Capital Group and went on to serve as a Vice-president at Goldman Sachs. She also put in a stint as Deputy Director of Finance for the City of Philadelphia. If Wiessman was interested in a prolonged political career, one suspects that she would have run for Treasurer last year instead of ceding the office, though. If she does decide to run, fundraising won't be as difficult as it would be for other first-time candidates as her husband is reportedly a major Democratic fundraiser.
With Governor Ed Rendell serious about retiring from electoral politics and with current state Treasurer Rob McCord in only his fourth month in the role and having expressed no interest in a Senate bid thus far, this appears to be the pool from which a Democratic nominee will arise. You're encouraged to make your case for your candidate in the comments. If there is someone you would like to see as the Democratic nominee in PA-Sen who hasn't been listed, share your thoughts in the comments, as well.
(From the diaries with minor edits - promoted by DavidNYC)
As I'd promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I'd tackle. This would have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way....
My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I'm all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3's, but not when I'm gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.
Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn't "merge" two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.
I had the following goals in mind:
Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.
Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.
Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.
Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah's district majority Black. I didn't bother with Brady's currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.
Chris Cilliza is reporting that Patrick Murphy will stay out, according to his sources.
Reps. Joe Sestak and Patrick J. Murphy: Sestak isn't interested; Murphy has been more coy but ultimately will stay out, our sources say.
He also mentions the other probables:
Joe Torsella: Torsella's name might be familiar to political junkies, as he ran a well-funded but ultimately unsuccessful primary against Rep. Allyson Schwartz in 2004 for the open 13th Congressional District seat. Torsella went on to raise the money for and then run the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. An X factor in Torsella's favor? He is very close to Gov. Ed Rendell, having served as a deputy mayor when Rendell ruled Philadelphia.
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Allyson Y. Schwartz: The congresswoman has run for the Senate -- she lost a primary to then-Rep. Ron Klink in 2000 -- and has made no secret of her interest in another statewide bid. Schwartz would almost certainly have the financial and organizational support of Emily's List, a powerful chit in her favor, particularly in a Democratic primary. Schwartz's hurdle is whether she can sell herself as a candidate outside the Philadelphia media market.
Jack Wagner: The state's auditor general is the lone candidate seriously considering the race who comes from the western part of the state, a huge advantage in a state where geography looms large. Wagner is mulling a run for governor, and there is some sense among political sharps that he will ultimately take that route.
Every possible configuration of the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race you can imagine is here, courtesy of Research 2000 for Daily Kos. Arlen Specter can't be liking what he's seeing. Thanks to Rasmussen last week, we already knew that Specter was vulnerable against Chris Matthews (they found Specter up 46-43). R2K finds an even closer race in that configuration, with Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz trailing Specter by 10+ points but holding him below 50%. (Consider this mostly a measure of name recognition at this point; Matthews has a national platform, but Murphy and Schwartz are little known outside their districts and right now are basically "generic D.")
But guess who else is holding Specter below 50%? Pat Toomey, who looks to be taking the controls for yet another kamikaze mission by the Club for Growth. If the free-market fundamentalist Toomey wins the primary, the general is effectively over, with even Murphy and Schwartz thumping him in head-to-head matchups.
Considering that Specter won the primary against Toomey in 2004 by only 2 points (with a slightly different-looking Pennsylvania GOP, where many of the remaining moderates hadn't yet jumped ship), Toomey winning the primary this time is a distinct possibility, given a Republican base with an even purer, less diluted conservatism. Specter pulls in only 43% in the primary matchup, which points to the balancing act he'll have to negotiate in the next two years: either burnish his RINO credentials and support most of the Obama agenda in order to survive the 2010 general, or join the southern GOP rump's obstructionist efforts in order to survive the 2010 primary. I believe the technical term for such a situation is "damned if you do, damned if you don't."
The new Representatives from PA, elected with slim majorities, have a problem, but there's a solution.
Problem:
We all know what's happening with congress and fundraising. It's become a frequent news story: no sooner are members of the 110th Congress in office than they are required to raise millions for their reelection. It's just a question of math: raise as much as possible or you'll lose, because your opponent will be doing the same thing. I wrote about Jason Altmire's experience (D, PA-4) earlier.
This Tuesday, The Philadelphia Inquirer had a story on the problem Patrick Murphy (D, PA-8)faces:
There's no such thing as a governing period now? It's one campaign into the next. It's really two full-time jobs - being a congressman and being a candidate.
The Hill published an article highlighting some of the fundraising efforts of freshmen Democrats in the House. Apparently, many are doing quite well. David Loebsack (IA-02) has raised about $71,000. Kirsten Gillebrand (NY-20) has raised $65,000 in PAC money alone. Earl Perlmutter (CO-07) has raised $79,000. Charlie Wilson (OH-06) has raised $34,000. Paul Hodes has raised $35,000. Jason Altmire (PA-04) and Patrick Murphy (PA-08) have both raised $50,000 in PAC money alone. Zack Space (OH-18) and Steven Kagen (WI-08) have both raised $35,000 in PAC money.
As far as simple financial numbers go, this is good news. All of these candidates are vulnerable to some degree. So, if all of these House members are already off to good starts, they may be able to force out potentially strong challenges early on.
But the article also has some worrying relevations. For one thing, Nancy Boyda (KS-02) has raised only $13,000. Considering the presidential vote in her district (Bush won it by 20 points), Boyda is probably one of our top five most vulnerable Democrats. Plus, she will not have Sebelius' coattails helping her and will instead have to contend with the Republican tide at the top of the ticket from the eventual Republican nominee and Senator Pat Roberts. Finally, she will possibly face a rematch against Jim Ryun. More over the flip...
