• NC-Sen: Republican pollster Civitas poked at the Senate race, not doing head-to-heads but looking at favorables for Richard Burr and two of his likeliest challengers, SoS Elaine Marshall and Rep. Mike McIntyre. Marshall and McIntyre are little-known, with 12/7 favorables for Marshall and 13/10 and McIntyre (although he was at 38/12 in his district). The bad news for Burr? He's barely doing better than them, with 31/19 favorables (meaning 50% don't know him or have no opinion).
• NY-Sen-B: Marist dribbles out the Senate half of its newest New York poll today (Gov was yesterday), and it finds a super-tight race in the Dem primary in wake of yesterday's sorta-kinda entry by Carolyn Maloney: Maloney leads Kirsten Gillibrand, 38-37 (compared with a 36-31 Gillibrand lead in May). Gillibrand wins against both George Pataki (46-42, up from a 46-38 deficit last time) and Peter King (48-32). Marist doesn't do general election head-to-heads with Maloney, although for some reason they poll a GOP primary between Pataki and King (51-36 for Pataki) despite the decreasing likelihood that either of them run.
Also of interest: Bill Clinton will be appearing at a Maloney fundraiser scheduled for July 20. Clinton isn't wading into the race with an endorsement at this point, though; this was in the works long before Maloney announced her run, as payback for Maloney's 2008 primary support for Hillary Clinton, and he also headlined a Gillibrand fundraiser in March.
• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey got another endorsement from one of the more conservative members of Pennsylvania's House GOP delegation: PA-09's Bill Shuster.
• AL-Gov: The Democratic field in the governor's race in Alabama seems to be solidifying; the last question mark, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, announced that she won't be running. With a lot of establishment figures waiting on the fence to see if an alternative to Rep. Artur Davis and Ag Comm. Ron Sparks shows up, expect them to start choosing sides soon. Davis, meanwhile, has been staffing up with some key political players, adding Joey Ceci and David Mowery to his team (who managed the successful campaigns of freshman Reps. Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright).
• CA-Gov: Sure, California's an expensive state, but Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman have reported gigantic hauls even by the Golden State's outsized standards. Brown raised $7.3 million in the year's first half, while Whitman raised $6.5 million. Steve Poizner and Gavin Newsom raised huge sums and are still far behind -- Poizner raised $1.3 million and loaned himself another $4 million, while Newsom raised $1.6 million, much of it online.
• MN-Gov: The tradmed seems to be intent today on talking up Norm Coleman's next logical step as being running for Governor of Minnesota, although Minnesota reporters and politicians in the know are trying to point out the sheer ridiculousness of that idea. (If Norm's going to be doing any running soon, it's running away from the FBI, as they investigate his links to Nasser Kazeminy.)
• RI-Gov: The Democratic primary for the open Rhode Island Governor's seat was looking to be a three-way slugfest, but Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts yesterday announced that she would run for re-election instead of for Gov. Although she had started staffing up for the race, she couldn't have been encouraged by poll numbers which showed her at a disadvantage with likely opponents Treasurer Frank Caprio and AG Patrick Lynch.
• SC-Gov: Gov. Mark Sanford seems to have taken a few steps backwards this week. A snap poll from yesterday by SUSA now finds 69% of South Carolinians saying resign, as opposed to 28% saying stay. 63% say they have "no trust" in Sanford. Here's an interesting red flag: only 20% say Lt. Gov/party boy Andre Bauer is "completely prepared" to become Governor, with 38% saying "somewhat prepared" and 34% saying "not prepared."
• WI-Gov: Real estate developer and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who held WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 before losing narrowly to Russ Feingold, announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday. Neumann's entry had been widely anticipated; he'll face off against Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary.
• CA-45: With Rep. Mary Bono Mack having defected on the cap-and-trade vote, the rightosphere has been calling for her head. Their favored replacement, term-limited state Senator Dennis Hollingsworth, quickly said "no" to a primary challenge, so their wish-list has turned to ex-state Sens. Jim Battin and Ray Haynes and ex-state Rep. Bonnie Garcia.
• IL-14: A second GOP challenger got into the race against Rep. Bill Foster, although this guy doesn't sound like he'll pose much of a threat to Ethan Hastert for the nom. Jeff Danklefsen hasn't run for office before and is "maintenance manager for a property management company."
• LA-03: The Hill reported last week that Democratic efforts to find a replacement to Rep. Charlie Melancon have focused on state Rep. Gary Smith, who was going to run for the open seat in 2004 but deferred to Melancon. State Rep. Fred Mills was also interested, but state Rep. Damon Baldone, who might be the highest-profile candidate, is about to run in a special election for a state Senate seat and is unlikely to follow that with a U.S. House run.
• PA-06: With the 2nd quarter just wrapped up, look for lots of financial reports to start getting leaked. Here's a nice place to start: Doug Pike, in the 6th, is looking at a haul of over $500K for the quarter, thanks a recent D.C. fundraiser starring Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy.
• WI-08: We're building up a backlog of Republicans trying to take on Rep. Steve Kagen. Businessman Reid Ribble jumped into the field, joining Door Co. Supervisor Marc Savard and Brown Co. Supervisor Andy Williams.
• WV-02: With some prodding from the DCCC, Gov. Joe Manchin's former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, is looking into challenging Rep. Shelly Capito Moore in the Charleston-based 2nd.
Anne Barth made her supporters proud at the debate tonight with Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.
For those of us who've seen Capito in debates before, it was the usual say one thing here, do something else in Washington D.C.
WEPM broadcast the debate and there will probably be a link later.
WEPM has a story up about the debate with a line in need of clarification:
More than 250 people were in attendance when the candidates for West Virginia's Second Congressional District faced off last night at Musselman High School in the final of the WEPM and Journal candidate forums for 2008. Incumbent Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito (R) and challenger Anne Barth (D) sat down to answer questions from the panel and from the audience. The debate was moderated by Blue Ridge Community and Technical College President Peter Checkovich. Crowds lined the streets with signs supporting their candidates prior to the debate and supporters cheered and yelled during the debate itself, a sign of the excitement that has been created as this heated campaign nears a finish.
Former Gov. Gaston Caperton explains why Anne Barth would be a tremendous representative for the people of West Virginia.
I attended the Campaign for Change event in Martinsburg, West Virginia today. It was rainy, autumnal day. We had a boisterous, fired up and ready to go crowd in attendance. Most of those who arrived early did visibility for our candidates outside the headquarters. We let our voices be loud enough so even those across the street at the Shelley Moore Capito headquarters could hear us even though she's tried to not listen to her constituents for years.
Today's event featured former Gov. Gaston Caperton, former Gov. Bob Wise, who also had served as the Congressional representative for the district, and West Virginia native son and U.S. Sen. Thomas Carper of Delaware, currently the junior senator of his state and soon to be the senior senator once Sen. Joe Biden is elected our vice president.
This is an R+6, military-heavy district that is often seen as a something of a bellwether for statewide contests (and according to this poll, McCain is leading Obama by 51-42), though keep in mind that even Jim Webb lost this district by a few points in 2006. This district is about 20% black, and that population is more dispersed and difficult to turn out than in other parts of the state -- and, according to the Cook Political Report, African-American turnout has been in the 10-15% range of the electorate in recent election. The black turnout is pretty key to Nye's chances, and it's hard to gauge this poll without knowing its racial breakdown. A recent Nye internal pegged this race at five points.
And over in West Virginia... Research 2000 (10/7-8, likely voters):
Anne Barth (D): 39
Shelley Moore Capito (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±5%)
Barth has a lot of work to do, clearly, but at least the spread is a lot closer than the "2-1 Capito lead" that Stuart Rothenberg was writing about last month (presumably he was talking about Capito's own polling).
Most interesting, though, are the Presidential numbers: McCain leads Obama by 48-41 in the 2nd District. That's not quite the 57-42 win that Bush posted here in 2004.
Via West Virginia Blue, Robert Byrd has cut a commercial for Anne Barth (D), running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito (R). It's pretty similar to the DSCC ads against Elizabeth Dole, with two men sitting on the porch just chattin' away.
UPDATE: On September 16 EMILY's List announced their endorsement of two more Congressional challengers: Becky Greenwald in IA-04 (D+0) and Sharen Neuhardt in OH-07 (R+6).
Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.
I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.
However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.
Over and over again we've seen a pattern from Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-Big Oil). When Democrats in Congress tried to take steps to do what the American people want and bring the troops home from Iraq, Capito called it "playing politics." But when George W. Bush and his administration plays politics with the lives of troops, we hear only silence from her. So much for her "independence." The only conclusion that can be reached: Capito likes it when Bush plays politics with the lives of soldiers.
Anne Barth had a long-scheduled event at Martinsburg headquarters before she and about 30 volunteers went off to canvass. By sheer coincidence ineffective Bush Republican Shelley Moore Capito held the opening of her campaign headquarters in Martinsburg across the street.
Now in addition to Cook's Political Report and others, Congressional Quarterly is jumping on that band wagon.
CQ Politics today is changing the race ratings in 14 congressional districts in 10 states to reflect changing political circumstances that mean brighter prospects for the Democrats, who are expected to augment their 236-199 majority in the U.S. House in the November elections.
Twelve of the 14 race rating changes favor the Democrats, compared to two that favor Republicans, who are trying to limit their losses this year after suffering a net loss of 30 House seats in the 2006 election.
CQ Politics bases its race ratings changes on a variety of factors, including polling and fundraising figures, demographic and political data and conversations with political analysts and party officials. The race ratings are better described as snapshots than as election predictions, and they are subject to change at any time.
snip
• West Virginia's 2nd(New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored). Four-term Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is well-liked and has some centrist leanings, but her election victories also have been aided by underfunded or flawed Democratic opponents. She may face her toughest challenge yet from Anne Barth, a longtime West Virginia-based aide to Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd who entered the race after Democratic state Sen. John Unger withdrew just before the January candidate filing deadline. With $636,000 in campaign receipts through the end of June, Barth has already raised more than 2006 Democratic nominee Mike Callaghan raised for the duration of a campaign in which he won 43 percent of the vote against Capito.
Double-talking Shelley Moore Capito
Republicans are dropping money on Capito that was raised to expand the Republican majority and in their desperation are using it to protect an incumbent.
My guess is Capito has seen internal polling that is panicking her. She's been too afraid to meet with constituents to answer their questions because she's so out of touch with the people of WV-02 she doesn't know what to say to them.
Capito has painted herself into a corner. She clearly wants to distance herself from the wildly unpopular George W. Bush so that she doesn't lose "independents" yet at the same time she can't distance herself too publicly without alienating the mouth-breathing part of her base that still supports him. The same with the Iraq war. At the end of the 2006 campaign, she signalled she was for withdrawing the troops from Iraq just as she expected the Iraq Study Group report to recommend, but then she reversed herself again on the issue, proving she's no independent. Her "centrist" leanings fail to show on key votes that matter.
Meanwhile Barth is one of the most attractive - in many ways - candidates we've ever had run for WV-02. Her experience at getting the job done for Byrd in West Virginia would be a great asset in the House of Representatives, particularly in a district where Capito has consistently been in the the bottom half of the power rankings at the nonpartisan Congress.org. Even when the Republicans held the majority, Democrats Nick Rahall and Alan Mollohan had much higher ratings for effectiveness than Capito.
This election is simple if we want to put someone in to get the job done for us. Anne can. Capito can't.
Is ineffective Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito afraid to be seen with her good friend of the past 7 years, George W. Bush? Did she ask him to stay away as she runs against a tough challenger, Anne Barth, and Capito tries to distance herself from her past rubberstamp support of Bush's extreme rightwing agenda?
In what has become something of a Fourth of July tradition, President Bush traveled to West Virginia - the fourth time in his presidency he has gone there on Independence Day.
Mr. Bush marked the occasion by promoting something he had lately stopped talking about - victory in Iraq.
Despite being saddled with the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, President Bush got a warm welcome today in Martinsburg. It was an invitation-only crowd, mainly West Virginia Air National Guardsmen and their families.
Mr. Bush made no mention of the fact that he served in the Texas Air National Guard at a time when the nation was mired in the Vietnam War.
I appreciate Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito. I appreciate her service; I appreciate her love for the great state of West Virginia. Thank you, Shelley Moore. (Applause.)
Today is the day we gather with our friends and family and give thanks to the United States of America; give thanks to the fact that we are citizens in a free land. (Applause.) I give thanks to Shelley Moore Capito for serving the people of West Virginia so well in the United States Congress. (Applause.)
I was greeted by your Mayor today -- I'm honored the Mayor, Mayor Danny Jones took time to say hello. Mr. Mayor, thanks for having me here, and thanks for serving your community. (Applause.) I know, you want me to tell him to fill the potholes. (Laughter.) I appreciate the President of the Charleston City Council, Councilman Tom Lane for being here, as well. Thank you, Councilman. All those who work hard for the people of Charleston. (Applause.)
We've got a lot of state and local officials. I'm honored you all are here. Thanks for inviting me to this beautiful capitol. I appreciate the planning committee for this independence weekend celebration. You know, it takes a lot of effort to put one of these deals together, and a lot of people have been working hard to do so, starting with Spike Maynard, who is the co-chairman and the Chief Justice of the West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals. (Applause.) I told the judge I liked being in the presence with somebody who doesn't try to re-write the Constitution. (Applause.)
I appreciate Mr. Sam Hindman, who is the retired publisher of your newspaper. He's a leader in your community. He's been a community leader for a long time. Thanks, Sam, for your hospitality. I want to thank my friend, Bill Raney, President of the West Virginia Coal Association, for being here, as well. (Applause.)
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all very much. (Applause.) Thank you. Well, thank you, Shelly*, and thanks for that warm welcome. I'm really proud to be in Jackson County, West Virginia. (Applause.)
Today we mark the 226th birthday of the United States of America. Last year I spent my first Independence Day as your President in Philadelphia. This year I get to spend it in Ripley, West Virginia. (Applause.)
Shelly told me about the 4th of July celebration. She said I needed to come and meet the town. It looks like most of you showed up. (Laughter.) I appreciate your hospitality. I appreciate all the hard work that went into making this 4th of July celebration such a fantastic gathering of our fellow Americans. And thanks for having me. (Applause.)
I want to thank Shelly Moore Capito for her friendship and her leadership in the halls of Congress.
But no Bush for Capito this year on July 4th. With his popularity around 25 percent, she doesn't want voters to remember she's been supportive of his unpopular programs every step of the way.
Soon we'll be able to celebrate our independence from both of them. Capito came in with Bush, she needs to go with him.
In 2006, ineffective Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito won re-election with 57 percent of the vote in a year that saw Democrats take over the House nationally.
Ineffective Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito came in to office with her good friend George W. Bush and she needs to leave with him. For the past 7 and a half years what has she accomplished for WV-02? Nothing. She has little to show for her four terms in office for the WV-02 District.
As Clem pointed out the right wing bloggers don't even write anything positive about her because there's nothing there.
For the past 21 years, Anne Barth has worked with Sen. Robert C. Byrd to serve West Virginians. There's been no one better at constituent service in Congress than Senator Byrd and he doesn't do it alone. He's relied on staffers like Anne Barth.
Like her political idol George W. Bush, Shelley Moore Capito grew up as the child of privilege. Her father former Gov. Arch Moore made sure when she wanted to run for office she was elected. She was born on 3rd base and acts like she hit a triple. And throughout her long years in Congress, she's voted consistently on issues that have helped people like her - wealthy and born into privilege - over people who know what it's like to earn a paycheck through the sweat of our brows. She's voted against bills supported by the unions and she's voted on bills that put a greater burden on the middleclass to give bigger tax cuts to the rich.
Anne Barth was born the daughter of a minister, who served different parishes throughout the state. Then she served as the right hand of Senator Byrd as he served the people of the state.
DemocracyCorps has an exciting survey (pdf) of 46 Congressional races of seats currently held by Republicans.
In Tier 1 races, which Democrat Anne Barth's challenge of Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito falls under, the Democratic candidates lead the Republican candidates 51-42.
On issues, from Iraq to the economy, the Democratic stance is favored over the Republican.
For example on the Iraq war, here's the results for the Democratic position similar to Barth's versus The Republican position identical to Capito's.
"We are in our fifth year of the Iraq war with no strategy to win the peace and bring our brave soldiers home. There have been over 4,000 American lives lost, more than a trillion dollars spent, with no end in sight. While I support our troops, I oppose an open-ended commitment to the war in Iraq.
I will work toward a responsible plan to bring our brave men and women home with honor.
We must focus on training the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security soon, set benchmarks for the Iraqi military, and give more emphasis to diplomatic strategies.
The war in Iraq has had a serious impact on our military, and our brave men and women are stretched thin by extended deployments. In Congress, I will work to strengthen America's national security and refocus on the terrorist threats around the globe that are currently ignored."
"In recent months we've seen hopeful signs of progress on security and localized political reconciliation in Iraq. We want Iraqis to take control and we must continue to apply pressure to Iraq's national leaders, but now is not the time to pull the rug out from under our troops who are performing admirably and achieving results."
I point those out to show the similarity between the way the question was asked in the survey.
[800 Respondents]
Q.61 (SPLIT D) Now I'm going to read you what the candidates for Congress are saying on Iraq. Regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the Democratic statement or the Republican statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
The Democratic candidate says the war in Iraq has cost us trillions of dollars while our economy has weakened, and has made America less secure. We must strengthen America's security by starting to reduce our troops in Iraq in a responsible way, force the Iraqi government to use its oil money to pay for reconstruction and work with other nations to bring stability. We need to invest the money we are currently spending in Iraq to restore our military, deal with Afghanistan and strengthen America's own economy and security. But the Republican candidate for Congress wants to keep our troops in Iraq for at least another 5 years.
OR
The Republican candidate says there has been military and political progress in Iraq, and that to withdraw now would cost more in lives and create more instability in the Middle East. If we follow John McCain's lead to see our commitment through until the end of his first term, by 2013 America will have welcomed most of our troops home and the Iraq war will have been won. Though some violence will still occur, Iraq will be a functioning democracy with al Qaeda defeated and the U.S. maintaining just a small military presence that does not play a direct combat role. But the Democratic candidate for Congress wants to pull our troops out precipitously and give al Qaeda a big victory.
With the numbers rounded that gives 59 percent supporting the Democratic statement and 39 percent supporting the Republic view. Note too how favorably the question was even worded to tilt support for the GOP position.
And keep in mind this was a poll done in Republican held districts.
I went to the peace vigil in Shepherdstown tonight. Five years of the occupation already. Some have been at it since before the Iraq invasion and occupation.
I saw many familiar faces from other peace events and political campaigns and I saw new faces as well. There were about 80 people in all in the large room where music and dances are sometimes held.
Kay Barnes (MO-06)
Anne Barth (WV-02)
Darcy Burner (WA-08)
Robert Daskas (NV-03)
Steven Driehaus (OH-01)
Jim Himes (CT-04)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Gary Peters (MI-09)
Mark Schauer (MI-07)
Dan Seals (IL-10)
There are few surprises here, but the committee's stamp of approval given to replacement candidate Anne Barth, who is running against incumbent GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in WV-02 seems indicative of the DCCC's desire to bust open the 2008 playing field in a big way.
Someone shot this video with a cellphone on Feb. 1 when WV-02 Democratic candidate Anne Barth made her Eastern Panhandle announcement in Martinsburg and just posted it on YouTube. This is great to see and I hope the campaign uses YouTube a lot because Barth is a great candidate.
I spoke to a union guy last week at the gym, who saw her at this event and at her speech before the West Virginia AFL-CIO. He thought Barth was wonderful here, just after she filed, and he raved about how polished she has become in such a short time.
Those who saw rightwing Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's speech at the Rotary Club recently reported she could barely string sentences together and seemed to know little of current events in the state or of issues pending in Congress. It will be great fun watching these two clash in a debate.
Democratic candidate Anne Barth is running in West Virginia 02. She's Senator Robert C. Byrd's longtime aide and an excellent candidate to take on vulnerable rightwing Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.
Sunday's event, held at a popular Chinese restaurant in downtown Martinsburg, was just one of several events Barth held throughout the Eastern Panhandle.
I attended the meet and greet in Shepherdstown Friday evening for West Virginia's new Democratic candidate for WV-02 Anne Barth. About 200 people packed the event, a great turnout for an event on such short notice and on a day when the weather involved a freezing rain.
