SSP Daily Digest: 4/28

FL-Sen: It’s poorly sourced, but conventional wisdom seems to be reaching some sort of critical mass on the idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will announce within the next week whether or not he will run for the open senate seat in Florida. Some say he is a “near lock” to switch over to the senate race.

IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he’s a developer who runs Chicago’s Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he’s been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there’s an “85% chance” he’ll do it.

CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)

GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.

AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama’s only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.

NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn’t an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.

ID-01: Are you there, God? It’s me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he’s angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he’s “increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed” and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)

SD-AL: South Dakota’s Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota’s at-large House seat. Nelson, who’s term-limited out, didn’t seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor’s seat (which has been rumored, but doesn’t seem to be taking shape).

CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.

CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)

DCCC: Everybody’s favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she’s actually getting her own page at the DCCC’s website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!

37 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/28”

  1. I wonder if term-limits could be his deciding factor.

    Meaning if he can get elected Senator, he’ll likely have that job as long as he wants thanks to incumbency.

    But in FL state office, he’ll eventually be termed out of the job.

  2. How the heck did we manage to get a Democrat elected as Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court?

  3. kinda glad to see Russ Warner back in this race.  He managed to raise some decent cash and is easily better than any of the other candidates that ran in this district in recent past.  Hopefully his increased name rec from a run in the general and added experience from that run will help him garner some national attention this time.  

  4. Do you really want to be in a minority party with 35 seats where the party is way too far to the right?

  5. I can already see people poo-pooing this, but I think it’s a legitimate concern. The district is very Hispanic, but clearly a lot of them aren’t citizens. Meanwhile, unlike many Latino-majority districts, the Whites in the area seem to be more conservative. Finally, for some reason, people keep repeating the misnomer that Vietnamese-Americans swung to Obama in 08.  I did a paper this semester (in part) on the political patterns of Southeast Asian Americans, and they definitely still voted strongly Republican.

    Sanchez was able to solidify herself in this swing district through heavy outreach to the Vietnamese community. I’m not saying they’re going to instantly switch over to Tran, but she’s going to have to remind the Vietnamese community why they’ve supported her for all these years.

  6. It would be grear to have Chris Kennedy continue  the family tradition and bring it to Illinois.   I volunteer to to be county chair of his comittee for my county


  7. Then he really doesn’t get how crazy his party has become.  He might get into office for a first term, but unless his party sees s serious change in philosophy he’ll eventually have the same fate as Chafee or Specter.

  8. being governor of one of the largest states in exchange for being like one of 35 powerless GOP senators next year?

  9. He’d probably be more liberal than some of the more conservative Dems, which would give him some cachet, particularly since the Democrats are always on the lookout for a couple of token Republicans to trot out as supporters of big policy initiatives.

  10. I have no statictics to back this with.

    I think that a majority of Asian Americans (particularly the vietnamese monlithically and to a lesser extent Koreans) vote Republican. In SD county (not LA county) a Chinese majority support Republicans. Arabs and Pakistanis used to vote Republicans – but recent mideast politics have somewhat muddied that.

    Am I right? I took a lot of flak for saying this.

  11. IIRC for some Southern California rqce there was a Vietnamese (or at least Asian) Repub candidate, but who broke some campaign law and had to go to trial, or something like that.

    Was that this district?

    Does this ring a bell with anyone? (I can’t Google it, because I’ve completely forgotten the names, and the town or office).

  12. Tran himself does not have full support among the Vietnamese community in the district, and only won 55% in his Assembly district against an unknown candidate with little money. And as others have mentioned, Sanchez easily disposed of Tan Nguyen in 2006.

  13. Asians in general were Republican trending as recently as 2004 IIRC, but with McCain those numbers and they fell off the cliff. Obama won Asian-Americans 62-35, at least according to the NYT.

    However, I’m positive that McCain kicked ass and took names among the Vietnamese-Americans.

    I think Korean-Americans used to be a moderately conservative swing demographic, but I feel like I read that they went as strongly pro-Obama as any Asian-American group.

    Arab-Americans are kinda funny, but I think the War on Terror and the Iraq war pushed them pretty strongly into the Republican category. I’ve noticed anecdotally that the few refugees from Iraq that Bush actually got around to letting in seem pretty conservative.  

  14. Vietnamese and Koreans have been voting Republican. Until Obama, Koreans voted Republican (mostly) and there is no reason to believe they will not do so locally. Perhaps the Chinese in conservative SD county. The Obama phenomenon has not changed their conservatism in general. How did they vote in the congressional election and the state assembly ans senate elections? Has that changed? I doubt it has.

  15. But in 2004 Arab-Americans gave Kerry something like 93%, as I remember, whereas they went strongly for Dole over Clinton.

    It’s not so much due to political positions as a feeling that one side hates your ass.

  16. was Tan Nguyen. He was, in fact, the GOP candidate in CA-47 (in 2006). He sent letters to Latino immigrants implying they couldn’t vote in the 2006 election. He was finally indicted last year for that, not for the vote suppression but for lying to federal investigators about his actions.

  17. It’s very possible. I found some harder numbers: (go to page 5). Vietnamese-American were really ridiculously Republican, but Obama did do surprisingly well among Korean-Americans, winning by 14. Also, Democrats have a 17% self-identification advantage over Republicans among Korean-Americans. That does kind of seem like a big enough margin to start having a real trickle-down effect as opposed to just being a one-time thing, but we’d have to see more numbers.

    All I really know is that I’ve seen multiple people say on here that Vietnamese-Americans are Dems now, and that’s bull. Which is really sad, because McCain’s been known to drop the word “gook” like it’s going out of style (which it needs to of course, but you know what I mean).

  18. It’s funny how often people get nailed, not for their real crimes, but for lying to the FBI investigator.

    (Prime example: Martha Stewart was guilty of lying about

    insider trading, but not the insider trading itself IIRC)

  19. I’ll have to go back and check, but I believe Bill Nelson was mostly anti-choice in the House long ago beause he represented a swing district.

  20. tho I’ve no hard evidence, the percentage is so high due to Repubs in the west not bothering to vote after McCain’s defeat was obvious.

    The early reports from the east coast were starting with hours left of voting on the west coast.

  21. as what would happen in Sanchez ran statewide…although now I’m not sure for what.

    I thought she would be a lock for Boxer’s seat, but Boxer’s hanging around…maybe she’ll run for Feinstein’s in 2012.  

  22. I was looking through the ACU ratings archives for past votes and it does appear Bill Nelson was pro-choice back in his days in the U.S. House.

    Though it is true he’s become more liberal since being in the Senate.  When he was in the House his ACU average rating each year was around 30-35%, which is similar to someone like Allen Boyd.  As a Senator his score has been much lower, at around 10-20%.

  23. Bill Nelson represented FL-15, which was Dave Weldon’s district after he retired and not Bill Posey’s seat.  It was a bit republican leaning even back then.

  24. Even if McCain/Obama wasn’t close, Prop 8 was, and many Repubs would come out to vote for that.

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