Month: February 2008

This is my first go at rating the House races this cycle.  Like 2006, there appear to be far more targets for the Democrats than the Republicans–despite the fact that the Dems now hold more seats and have a large freshman class.  These factors are offset by the rash of GOP retirements, the fact that the GOP won most of the close races in 2006, and the money disparities both between the DCCC and NRCC and between individual Dem and GOP candidates.

Unlike 2006, however, there are a sizable number of Dem seats on the list–mostly freshmen who took GOP seats last cycle.  As I have explained in the past, these rankings are based on my “vulnerability score”, a mathematical formula which takes into account objective measurres like an incumbent’s 2006 electoral performance and a district’s PVI and also subjective factors where I add or subtract points based on whether it is an open seat or a freshman race, whether there is a scandal issue, whether a divisive primary may hurt one side or the other, general candidate quality, fundraising and cash on hand, and even intangible “feel.”  This methodology served pretty welll in 2006.  

Here, I separate GOP-held and Dem-held seats, listing 80 GOP seats and 46 Dem seats.  For each, I give the PVI, ’06 results (unless iti is an open seat), candidates, and finance numbers through the end of ’07 (and beyond in some cases).  All finance figures are in thousands.  Because this is long enough, I do not provide commentary, but am willing to discuss each race in the comments.

GOP Seats

1. NJ-03 (OPEN (Saxton)) Vulnerability Score: 126

PVI: 53

Democrats: J.Adler:  Total Raised: 629;  Cash on Hand: 591

Republicans: J.Kelly/ C.Myers/ M.Boemio/ J.Murphy:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

2. NY-25 (OPEN (Walsh)) Vulnerability Score: 126

PVI: 53

Democrats: D.Maffei:  Total Raised: 518;  Cash on Hand: 439

Republicans: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

3. IL-11 (OPEN (Weller)) Vulnerability Score: 121

PVI: 49

Democrats: D.Halvorson:  Total Raised: 428;  Cash on Hand: 394

Republicans: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

4. NM-01 (OPEN (Wilson)) Vulnerability Score: 117

PVI: 52

Democrats: R.Vigil-Giron/ M.Heinrich/ M.Grisham/ R.Pidcock/ J.Wolfe:  Total Raised: x/ 465/ 116/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ 277/ 96/ x/ x

Republicans: J.Carraro/ D.White:  Total Raised: x/ 213;  Cash on Hand: x/ 173

5. OH-15 (OPEN (Pryce)) Vulnerability Score: 113

PVI: 49

Democrats: M.Kilroy:  Total Raised: 914;  Cash on Hand: 710

Republicans: S.Stivers/ R.Wagner:  Total Raised: 506/ 6;  Cash on Hand: 444/ 15

6. AZ-01 (OPEN (Renzi)) Vulnerability Score: 113

PVI: 48

Democrats: A.Kirkpatrick/ M.Titla/ A.Affeldt/ A.Shanker/ J.Riley/ J.Brown:  Total Raised: 403/ 121/ 5/ 84/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 293/ 30/ 0/ 4/ x/ x

Republicans: S.Hay/ P.Korn:  Total Raised: 170/ x;  Cash on Hand: 156/ x

7. MI-07 (Walberg) Vulnerability Score: 113

PVI: 48

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47

Democrats: M.Schauer/ S.Renier:  Total Raised: 577/ 2;  Cash on Hand: 501/ 0

Republicans: T.Walberg*:  Total Raised: 562;  Cash on Hand: 438

8. NJ-07 (OPEN (Ferguson)) Vulnerability Score: 112

PVI: 49

Democrats: L.Stender/ U.Chivukula:  Total Raised: 607/ 8;  Cash on Hand: 502/ 30

Republicans: K.Whitman/ L.Lance/ M.Marks/ T.Roughneen/ K.Hatfield/ V.Sordillo/ C.Venis/ M.Smith/ M.Hsing:  Total Raised: 201/ x/ 94/ x/ x/ x/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 200/ x/ 94/ x/ x/ x/ x/ x

9. WA-08 (Reichert) Vulnerability Score: 112

PVI: 52

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49

Democrats: D.Burner:  Total Raised: 874;  Cash on Hand: 607

Republicans: D.Reichert*:  Total Raised: 1040;  Cash on Hand: 463

10. VA-11 (OPEN (Davis)) Vulnerability Score: 111

PVI: 49

Democrats: L.Byrne/ G.Connolly/ B.Denneny/ L.Alexander:  Total Raised: 115/ x/ 31/ x;  Cash on Hand: 104/ x/ 14/ x

Republicans: K.Fimian:  Total Raised: 700;  Cash on Hand: 656

11. CT-04 (Shays) Vulnerability Score: 111

PVI: 55

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48

Democrats: J.Himes/ L.Whitnum:  Total Raised: 951/ 5;  Cash on Hand: 800/ 5

Republicans: C.Shays*:  Total Raised: 1154;  Cash on Hand: 797

12. MN-03 (OPEN (Ramstad)) Vulnerability Score: 110

PVI: 49

Democrats: T.Bonoff/ J.Hovland/ A.Madia:  Total Raised: 305/ 76/ 166;  Cash on Hand: 230/ 67/ 124

Republicans: E.Paulsen:  Total Raised: 390;  Cash on Hand: 364

13. IL-10 (Kirk) Vulnerability Score: 110

PVI: 54

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47

Democrats: D.Seals:  Total Raised: 900;  Cash on Hand: 627

Republicans: M.Kirk*:  Total Raised: 2303;  Cash on Hand: 1790

14. NY-29 (Kuhl) Vulnerability Score: 109

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48

Democrats: E.Massa:  Total Raised: 621;  Cash on Hand: 415

Republicans: R.Kuhl*:  Total Raised: 515;  Cash on Hand: 327

15. FL-13 (Buchanan) Vulnerability Score: 109

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50

Democrats: C.Jennings/ M.LaFevers/ F.McAndrews:  Total Raised: 581/ 1/ x;  Cash on Hand: 343/ 0/ x

Republicans: V.Buchanan*:  Total Raised: 1912;  Cash on Hand: 1066

16. OH-02 (Schmidt) Vulnerability Score: 108

PVI: 37

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49

Democrats: S.Black/ V.Wulsin:  Total Raised: 415/ 547;  Cash on Hand: 10/ 171

Republicans: J.Schmidt*/ T.Brinkman/ N.Bailey:  Total Raised: 414/ 48/ 2;  Cash on Hand: 103/ 13/ 0

17. IL-14 (OPEN (Hastert)) Vulnerability Score: 106 SPECIAL ELECTION MARCH 8

PVI: 45

Democrats: B.Foster:  Total Raised: 2122;  Cash on Hand: 85

Republicans: J.Oberweis:  Total Raised: 2884;  Cash on Hand: 545

18. OH-16 (OPEN (Regula)) Vulnerability Score: 106

PVI: 46

Democrats: J.Boccieri/ M.Cirelli:  Total Raised: 467/ x;  Cash on Hand: 332/ x

Republicans: K.Schuring/ M.Miller/ B.Schiffer:  Total Raised: 328/ 101/ 13;  Cash on Hand: 85/ 78/ 3

19. OH-01 (Chabot) Vulnerability Score: 106

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47

Democrats: S.Driehaus:  Total Raised: 517;  Cash on Hand: 430

Republicans: S.Chabot*:  Total Raised: 1156;  Cash on Hand: 1009

20. NC-08 (Hayes) Vulnerability Score: 105

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50

Democrats: L.Kissell/ M.Autry/ M.Zaccaro:  Total Raised: 392/ x/ 3;  Cash on Hand: 137/ x/ 1

Republicans: R.Hayes*:  Total Raised: 1318;  Cash on Hand: 793

21. NV-03 (Porter) Vulnerability Score: 105

PVI: 51

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49

Democrats: R.Daskas/ E.Martin/ B.Michaels:  Total Raised: 146/ 156/ x;  Cash on Hand: 146/ 107/ x

Republicans: J.Porter*:  Total Raised: 992;  Cash on Hand: 770

22. PA-06 (Gerlach) Vulnerability Score: 105

PVI: 52

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49

Democrats: B.Rovner/ M.Leibowitz/ B.Roggio:  Total Raised: x/ 25/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ 25/ x

Republicans: J.Gerlach*:  Total Raised: 1093;  Cash on Hand: 500

23. MI-09 (Knollenberg) Vulnerability Score: 104

PVI: 50

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47

Democrats: G.Peters/ R.Ross:  Total Raised: 401/ x;  Cash on Hand: 359/ x

Republicans: J.Knollenberg*:  Total Raised: 1439;  Cash on Hand: 1036

24. FL-15 (OPEN (Weldon)) Vulnerability Score: 104

PVI: 46

Democrats: N.Higgs/ S.Blythe:  Total Raised: x/ 10;  Cash on Hand: x/ 5

Republicans: B.Posey/ S.Mayfield/ A.Bergman:  Total Raised: x/ x/ 0;  Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 0

25. MO-09 (OPEN (Hulshof)) Vulnerability Score: 102

PVI: 43

Democrats: J.Baker/ L.Bode/ S.Gaw:  Total Raised: 103/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 101/ x/ x

Republicans: B.Olivo:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

26. LA-06 (OPEN (Baker)) Vulnerability Score: 101 SPECIAL ELECTION PRIMARY MARCH 8; GENERAL MAY 3

PVI: 43

Democrats: D.Cazayoux/ A.Kopplin/ M.Jackson/ J.DeCuir/ J.Delatte:  Total Raised: 258/ 126/ 20/ 9/ x;  Cash on Hand: 147/ 85/ 4/ 7/ x

Republicans: P.Sawyer/ W.Jenkins/ L.Calongne/ P.Cloonan:  Total Raised: 113/ 80/ 181/ x;  Cash on Hand: 88/ 22/ 104/ x

27. NY-26 (Reynolds) Vulnerability Score: 100

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48

Democrats: J.Powers/ J.Davis/ A.Kryzan:  Total Raised: 369/ 2253/ 210;  Cash on Hand: 261/ 0/ 155

Republicans: T.Reynolds*:  Total Raised: 1017;  Cash on Hand: 863

28. NM-02 (OPEN (Pearce)) Vulnerability Score: 100

PVI: 44

Democrats: B.McCamley/ H.Teague/ F.McKinnon/ A.Kissling:  Total Raised: 272/ 409/ x/ 36;  Cash on Hand: 212/ 363/ x/ 7

Republicans: T.Marquardt/ E.Greer/ E.Tinsley/ A.Dunn/ M.Newman/ G.Sowards:  Total Raised: x/ x/ 305/ 304/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 284/ 275/ x/ x

29. FL-24 (Feeney) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: S.Kozmas/ C.Curtis/ G.Bhola:  Total Raised: 360/ 33/ x;  Cash on Hand: 337/ 7/ x

Republicans: T.Feeney*:  Total Raised: 778;  Cash on Hand: 455

30. LA-04 (OPEN (McCrery)) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 43

Democrats: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

Republicans: C.Gorman/ J.Fleming:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

31. IL-06 (Roskam) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49

Democrats: J.Morgenthaler:  Total Raised: 105;  Cash on Hand: 42

Republicans: P.Roskam*:  Total Raised: 1093;  Cash on Hand: 864

32. PA-15 (Dent) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 52

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 45

Democrats: S.Bennett:  Total Raised: 195;  Cash on Hand: 94

Republicans: C.Dent*:  Total Raised: 765;  Cash on Hand: 535

33. DE-AL (Castle) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 57

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41

Democrats: K.Hartley-Nagle/ J.Northington/ C.Bullock:  Total Raised: x/ 22/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ 6/ x

Republicans: M.Castle*:  Total Raised: 736;  Cash on Hand: 1527

34. NY-13 (Fossella) Vulnerability Score: 98

PVI: 51

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43

Democrats: D.Recchia/ S.Harrison:  Total Raised: 221/ 107;  Cash on Hand: 206/ 83

Republicans: V.Fossella*:  Total Raised: 701;  Cash on Hand: 251

35. CO-04 (Musgrave) Vulnerability Score: 98

PVI: 41

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48

Democrats: B.Markey:  Total Raised: 368;  Cash on Hand: 287

Republicans: M.Musgrave*:  Total Raised: 1036;  Cash on Hand: 760

36. FL-09 (Bilirakis) Vulnerability Score: 98

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44

Democrats: J.Dicks/ B.Mitchell/ A.DePalma/ M.Van Hoek:  Total Raised: 318/ 52/ x/ 11;  Cash on Hand: 307/ 142/ x/ 2

Republicans: G.Bilirakis*:  Total Raised: 353;  Cash on Hand: 269

37. FL-08 (Keller) Vulnerability Score: 98

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 46

Democrats: C.Stuart/ M.Smith/ A.Grayson/ C.Kroehler/ Q.Van/ A.Fry:  Total Raised: 311/ 368/ 55/ 53/ 3/ x;  Cash on Hand: 266/ 271/ 17/ 0/ 1/ x

Republicans: R.Keller*/ B.Hering/ T.Long:  Total Raised: 581/ 29/ 179;  Cash on Hand: 617/ 19/ 40

38. NV-02 (Heller) Vulnerability Score: 98

PVI: 42

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47

Democrats: J.Derby:  Total Raised: 0;  Cash on Hand: 0

Republicans: D.Heller*:  Total Raised: 794;  Cash on Hand: 664

39. WY-AL (OPEN (Cubin)) Vulnerability Score: 97

PVI: 31

Democrats: G.Trauner:  Total Raised: 392;  Cash on Hand: 353

Republicans: C.Lummis/ D.Zwonitzer/ B.Winney/ K.Gilchrist/ S.Nelson/ M.Gordon:  Total Raised: x/ x/ 24/ x/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 18/ x/ x/ x

40. VA-02 (Drake) Vulnerability Score: 97

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49

Democrats: G.Nye:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: T.Drake*:  Total Raised: 741;  Cash on Hand: 426

41. AK-AL (Young) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 36

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41

Democrats: E.Berkowitz/ J.Metcalfe/ D.Benson:  Total Raised: 124/ 93/ 93;  Cash on Hand: 100/ 11/ 36

Republicans: D.Young*/ G.LeDoux:  Total Raised: 657/ 114;  Cash on Hand: 948/ 99

42. MO-06 (Graves) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 37

Democrats: K.Barnes:  Total Raised: 656;  Cash on Hand: 578

Republicans: S.Graves*:  Total Raised: 958;  Cash on Hand: 766

43. CA-04 (OPEN (Doolittle)) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 39

Democrats: C.Brown:  Total Raised: 703;  Cash on Hand: 283

Republicans: D.Ose/ R.Oller/ E.Egland/ T.Terbolizard:  Total Raised: x/ x/ 141/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 79/ x

44. ID-01 (Sali) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 31

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47

Democrats: L.Grant/ R.Lewis/ W.Minnick:  Total Raised: 65/ 27/ 410;  Cash on Hand: 41/ 7/ 311

Republicans: B.Sali*/ M.Salisbury:  Total Raised: 298/ 21;  Cash on Hand: 100/ 5

45. MN-06 (Bachmann) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 46

Democrats: E.Tinklenberg/ B.Olson:  Total Raised: 133/ 181;  Cash on Hand: 96/ 92

Republicans: M.Bachmann*:  Total Raised: 1188;  Cash on Hand: 796

46. VA-10 (Wolf) Vulnerability Score: 95

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: J.Feder/ M.Turner:  Total Raised: 589/ 61;  Cash on Hand: 483/ 37

Republicans: F.Wolf*/ V.McKinley:  Total Raised: 740/ 16;  Cash on Hand: 555/ 12

47. OH-07 (OPEN (Hobson)) Vulnerability Score: 95

PVI: 44

Democrats: B.Conner/ S.Neuhardt/ D.Woolever/ R.Wyderski/ T.Scrivens/ J.Null:  Total Raised: 7/ 70/ 10/ 2/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 6/ 39/ 0/ 1/ x/ x

Republicans: S.Austria/ R.Hood/ D.Harkins/ J.Mitchel:  Total Raised: 406/ 71/ 53/ x;  Cash on Hand: 230/ 39/ 3/ x

48. IA-04 (Latham) Vulnerability Score: 95

PVI: 50

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43

Democrats: W.Meyers/ K.Meyer:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: T.Latham*:  Total Raised: 435;  Cash on Hand: 412

49. CA-50 (Bilbray) Vulnerability Score: 95

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44

Democrats: N.Leibham/ J.Evans/ S.Schechter:  Total Raised: 211/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 188/ x/ x

Republicans: B.Bilbray*:  Total Raised: 419;  Cash on Hand: 262

50. PA-03 (English) Vulnerability Score: 94

PVI: 48

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44

Democrats: K.Foust/ K.Dahlkemper/ T.Myers/ M.Waltner:  Total Raised: 55/ 154/ 140/ 100;  Cash on Hand: 25/ 116/ 76/ 66

Republicans: P.English*:  Total Raised: 830;  Cash on Hand: 537

51. MD-01 (OPEN (Gilchrest)) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 40

Democrats: F.Kratovil:  Total Raised: 242;  Cash on Hand: 82

Republicans: A.Harris:  Total Raised: 1098;  Cash on Hand: 361

52. AZ-03 (Shadegg) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: B.Lord:  Total Raised: 613;  Cash on Hand: 503

Republicans: J.Shadegg*:  Total Raised: 1021;  Cash on Hand: 864

53. MS-01 (OPEN (Wicker)) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 40

Democrats: S.Holland/ M.Coleman/ T.Childers/ J.Hurt/ B.Neely:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: G.Davis/ G.McCullough/ R.Russell:  Total Raised: 15/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 15/ x/ x

54. VA-05 (Goode) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: B.Jackson/ T.Perriello:  Total Raised: x/ 267;  Cash on Hand: x/ 244

Republicans: V.Goode*:  Total Raised: 165;  Cash on Hand: 384

55. NJ-05 (Garrett) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44

Democrats: C.Abate/ D.Shulman:  Total Raised: 154/ 192;  Cash on Hand: 94/ 175

Republicans: S.Garrett*:  Total Raised: 505;  Cash on Hand: 352

56. MI-11 (McCotter) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44

Democrats: T.Spencer/ E.Kriewall:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: T.McCotter*/ T.McAvoy:  Total Raised: 407/ x;  Cash on Hand: 373/ x

57. CA-45 (Bono Mack) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41

Democrats: J.Bornstein/ P.Clay/ D.Hunsicker:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: M.Bono Mack*:  Total Raised: 468;  Cash on Hand: 219

58. PA-05 (OPEN (Peterson)) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 40

Democrats: M.McCracken/ R.Vilello/ B.Cahir:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: J.Stroup/ C.Exarchos/ M.Shaner/ L.Radkowski/ J.Stroehmann/ G.Thompson/ D.Walker/ J.Krupa/ K.Richardson:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

59. OH-14 (LaTourette) Vulnerability Score: 91

PVI: 48

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: B.O’Neill/ D.Blanchard/ J.Greene:  Total Raised: 210/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 94/ x/ x

Republicans: S.LaTourette*:  Total Raised: 708;  Cash on Hand: 570

60. PA-18 (Murphy) Vulnerability Score: 91

PVI: 48

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: B.Hafer/ W.Dudding/ S.O’Donnell/ B.Wall:  Total Raised: 106/ x/ 260/ 36;  Cash on Hand: 42/ x/ 204/ 16

Republicans: T.Murphy*:  Total Raised: 600;  Cash on Hand: 663

61. FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) Vulnerability Score: 91

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: J.Garcia:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: M.Diaz-Balart*:  Total Raised: 388;  Cash on Hand: 466

62. TX-10 (McCaul) Vulnerability Score: 91

PVI: 37

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43

Democrats: L.Doherty/ D.Grant:  Total Raised: 448/ 183;  Cash on Hand: 345/ 165

Republicans: M.McCaul*:  Total Raised: 527;  Cash on Hand: 433

63. CA-52 (OPEN (Hunter)) Vulnerability Score: 91

PVI: 41

Democrats: M.Lumpkin/ J.Hester/ V.Butcher:  Total Raised: 78/ 8/ 10;  Cash on Hand: 44/ 1/ 8

Republicans: D.Hunter Jr./ B.Jones/ K.King/ B.Watkins:  Total Raised: 224/ 132/ 145/ 222;  Cash on Hand: 116/ 82/ 90/ 58

64. AL-02 (OPEN (Everett)) Vulnerability Score: 90

PVI: 37

Democrats: B.Bright/ T.Spicer/ C.Crawley:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: D.Grimes/ J.Love/ H.Smith/ C.Schmidtke:  Total Raised: x/ 370/ 18/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ 370/ 0/ x

65. WV-02 (Capito) Vulnerability Score: 90

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43

Democrats: A.Barth/ T.Cooper/ R.Robb:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: S.Capito*:  Total Raised: 732;  Cash on Hand: 644

66. IL-13 (Biggert) Vulnerability Score: 90

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: S.Harper:  Total Raised: 134;  Cash on Hand: 36

Republicans: J.Biggert*:  Total Raised: 532;  Cash on Hand: 458

67. OH-12 (Tiberi) Vulnerability Score: 90

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: D.Robinson/ A.Dagres/ R.Goodwin:  Total Raised: 11/ x/ 9;  Cash on Hand: 11/ x/ 9

Republicans: P.Tiberi*:  Total Raised: 1011;  Cash on Hand: 643

68. IN-03 (Souder) Vulnerability Score: 89

PVI: 34

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 46

Democrats: M.Montagano:  Total Raised: 205;  Cash on Hand: 181

Republicans: M.Souder*/ S.Wise:  Total Raised: 316/ x;  Cash on Hand: 211/ x

69. MN-02 (Kline) Vulnerability Score: 89

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42

Democrats: S.Sarvi/ D.Powers:  Total Raised: 54/ 0;  Cash on Hand: 32/ 0

Republicans: J.Kline*:  Total Raised: 645;  Cash on Hand: 395

70. CA-26 (Dreier) Vulnerability Score: 88

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: R.Warner/ H.Hillsman:  Total Raised: 380/ 124;  Cash on Hand: 240/ 11

Republicans: D.Dreier*:  Total Raised: 599;  Cash on Hand: 1965

71. FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) Vulnerability Score: 88

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41

Democrats: R.Martinez/ R.Allbritton:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: L.Diaz-Balart*/ D.Santoro:  Total Raised: 456/ x;  Cash on Hand: 904/ x

72. KY-02 (OPEN (Lewis)) Vulnerability Score: 87

PVI: 37

Democrats: D.Boswell/ R.Haire:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: B.Guthrie:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

73. CA-46 (Rohrabacher) Vulnerability Score: 87

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 39

Democrats: D.Cook/ S.Blount/ D.Lash:  Total Raised: x/ 0/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ 0/ x

Republicans: D.Rohrabacher*:  Total Raised: 193;  Cash on Hand: 343

74. OH-03 (Turner) Vulnerability Score: 87

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41

Democrats: J.Mitakides/ C.Sanders/ D.Esrati:  Total Raised: x/ 5/ x;  Cash on Hand: x/ 0/ x

Republicans: M.Turner*:  Total Raised: 742;  Cash on Hand: 484

75. TX-07 (Culberson) Vulnerability Score: 85

PVI: 34

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: M.Skelly:  Total Raised: 464;  Cash on Hand: 403

Republicans: J.Culberson*:  Total Raised: 322;  Cash on Hand: 82

76. AL-03 (Rogers) Vulnerability Score: 83

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 39

Democrats: G.Pierce/ J.Segall:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: M.Rogers*:  Total Raised: 606;  Cash on Hand: 952

77. NJ-04 (Smith) Vulnerability Score: 82

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 33

Democrats: J.Zeitz/ A.Vazquez:  Total Raised: 97/ x;  Cash on Hand: 83/ x

Republicans: C.Smith*:  Total Raised: 269;  Cash on Hand: 405

78. IL-16 (Manzullo) Vulnerability Score: 81

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 33

Democrats: R.Abboud:  Total Raised: 116;  Cash on Hand: 38

Republicans: D.Manzullo*:  Total Raised: 588;  Cash on Hand: 391

79. IN-06 (Pence) Vulnerability Score: 80

PVI: 39

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: B.Welsh:  Total Raised: 13;  Cash on Hand: 6

Republicans: M.Pence*:  Total Raised: 812;  Cash on Hand: 663

80. MD-06 (Bartlett) Vulnerability Score: 80

PVI: 37

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40

Democrats: J.Dougherty:  Total Raised: 19;  Cash on Hand: 1

Republicans: R.Bartlett*:  Total Raised: 114;  Cash on Hand: 280

Dem Seats

1. TX-22 (Lampson) Vulnerability Score: 118

PVI: 35

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 55

Democrats: N.Lampson*:  Total Raised: 1046;  Cash on Hand: 739

Republicans: S.Sekula-Gibbs/ D.Hrbacek/ J.Manlove/ B.Talton/ J.Squier/ C.Dunbar/ K.Bazzy/ B.Klock/ P.Olson/ R.Rowley:  Total Raised: 1065/ 266/ 283/ 225/ 177/ 9/ 21/ 37/ 535/ 7;  Cash on Hand: 206/ 46/ 166/ 36/ 92/ 1/ 1/ 0/ 90/ 1

2. GA-08 (Marshall) Vulnerability Score: 115

PVI: 42

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51

Democrats: J.Marshall*/ J.Ellis/ R.Nowak:  Total Raised: 724/ x/ 9;  Cash on Hand: 900/ x/ 7

Republicans: R.Goddard:  Total Raised: 437;  Cash on Hand: 348

3. KS-02 (Boyda) Vulnerability Score: 112

PVI: 43

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52

Democrats: N.Boyda*:  Total Raised: 766;  Cash on Hand: 654

Republicans: J.Ryun/ L.Jenkins:  Total Raised: 980/ 513;  Cash on Hand: 365/ 416

4. OR-05 (OPEN (Hooley)) Vulnerability Score: 111

PVI: 51

Democrats: Kurt Schrader :  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: M.Erickson:  Total Raised: 176;  Cash on Hand: 131

5. PA-10 (Carney) Vulnerability Score: 111

PVI: 42

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53

Democrats: C.Carney*:  Total Raised: 1000;  Cash on Hand: 763

Republicans: C.Hackett/ D.Meuser/ D.Haire:  Total Raised: 471/ 652/ 0;  Cash on Hand: 387/ 398/ 0

6. WI-08 (Kagen) Vulnerability Score: 110

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51

Democrats: S.Kagen*:  Total Raised: 844;  Cash on Hand: 665

Republicans: J.Gard/ F.Lasee:  Total Raised: 360/ x;  Cash on Hand: 285/ x

7. IN-09 (Hill) Vulnerability Score: 110

PVI: 43

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52

Democrats: B.Hill*/ G.Clearwater/ J.Bottorff/ L.Terry:  Total Raised: 1136/ 4/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 862/ 3/ x/ x

Republicans: M.Sodrel:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

8. NY-20 (Gillibrand) Vulnerability Score: 108

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53

Democrats: K.Gillibrand*/ M.Guller:  Total Raised: 2561/ x;  Cash on Hand: 2042/ x

Republicans: S.Treadwell/ M.Rocque/ J.Wallace:  Total Raised: 1238/ 172/ 60;  Cash on Hand: 755/ 50/ 4

9. PA-04 () Vulnerability Score: 107

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52

Democrats: J.Altmire*:  Total Raised: 1133;  Cash on Hand: 911

Republicans: M.Hart:  Total Raised: 386;  Cash on Hand: 332

10. NH-01 (Shea-Porter) Vulnerability Score: 107

PVI: 50

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52

Democrats: C.Shea-Porter*:  Total Raised: 531;  Cash on Hand: 466

Republicans: J.Bradley/ J.Stephen:  Total Raised: 423/ 232;  Cash on Hand: 423/ 203

11. AZ-05 (Mitchell) Vulnerability Score: 106

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53

Democrats: H.Mitchell*:  Total Raised: 1040;  Cash on Hand: 869

Republicans: D.Schweikert/ J.Ogsbury/ M.Anderson/ J.Hatch-Miller/ L.Knaperek:  Total Raised: 506/ 387/ x/ x/ 51;  Cash on Hand: 412/ 349/ x/ x/ 27

12. CA-11 (McNerney) Vulnerability Score: 106

PVI: 47

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53

Democrats: J.McNerney*:  Total Raised: 1314;  Cash on Hand: 925

Republicans: D.Andal:  Total Raised: 535;  Cash on Hand: 471

13. FL-16 (Mahoney) Vulnerability Score: 105

PVI: 48

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51

Democrats: T.Mahoney*:  Total Raised: 1750;  Cash on Hand: 1453

Republicans: G.Harrell/ T.Rooney/ H.Valeche/ M.Mett/ R.Siedlecki:  Total Raised: 412/ 554/ 427/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 271/ 397/ 301/ x/ x

14. NC-11 (Shuler) Vulnerability Score: 105

PVI: 43

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54

Democrats: H.Shuler*:  Total Raised: 795;  Cash on Hand: 626

Republicans: J.Armor/ S.Campbell/ C.Mumpower:  Total Raised: x/ 152/ 3;  Cash on Hand: x/ 73/ 1

15. NY-19 (Hall) Vulnerability Score: 104

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51

Democrats: J.Hall*:  Total Raised: 1344;  Cash on Hand: 1039

Republicans: G.Oros/ K.Lalor:  Total Raised: x/ 31;  Cash on Hand: x/ 26

16. KY-03 (Yarmuth) Vulnerability Score: 103

PVI: 52

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52

Democrats: J.Yarmuth*:  Total Raised: 804;  Cash on Hand: 659

Republicans: A.Northup/ C.Everett / D.Devore:  Total Raised: 34/ x/ x;  Cash on Hand: 6/ x/ x

17. MN-01 (Walz) Vulnerability Score: 103

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53

Democrats: T.Walz*:  Total Raised: 1248;  Cash on Hand: 793

Republicans: D.Day/ R.Demmer/ B.Davis:  Total Raised: 210/ 206/ 161;  Cash on Hand: 96/ 42/ 85

18. TX-17 (Edwards) Vulnerability Score: 100

PVI: 32

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 59

Democrats: C.Edwards*:  Total Raised: 1278;  Cash on Hand: 1051

Republicans: R.Curnock:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

19. AZ-08 (Giffords) Vulnerability Score: 100

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56

Democrats: G.Giffords*:  Total Raised: 1439;  Cash on Hand: 1317

Republicans: T.Bee:  Total Raised: 286;  Cash on Hand: 161

20. IL-08 (Bean) Vulnerability Score: 100

PVI: 45

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54

Democrats: M.Bean*:  Total Raised: 1860;  Cash on Hand: 1260

Republicans: S.Greenberg:  Total Raised: 410;  Cash on Hand: 62

21. TX-23 (Rodriguez) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 57

Democrats: C.Rodriguez*:  Total Raised: 1303;  Cash on Hand: 661

Republicans: F.Canseco/ L.Larson:  Total Raised: 850/ 180;  Cash on Hand: 207/ 0

22. PA-08 (Murphy) Vulnerability Score: 99

PVI: 53

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50

Democrats: P.Murphy*:  Total Raised: 1585;  Cash on Hand: 1172

Republicans: T.Mannion/ J.Montone:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

23. IN-02 (Donnelley) Vulnerability Score: 97

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54

Democrats: J.Donnelly*:  Total Raised: 1108;  Cash on Hand: 713

Republicans: L.Puckett/ J.Frame/ J.Roush/ T.Zirkle:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

24. NH-02 (Hodes) Vulnerability Score: 97

PVI: 53

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54

Democrats: P.Hodes*:  Total Raised: 1041;  Cash on Hand: 695

Republicans: B.Clegg/ J.Horn/ J.Steiner:  Total Raised: x/ x/ 11;  Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 9

25. GA-12 (Barrow) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 52

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50

Democrats: J.Barrow*:  Total Raised: 1138;  Cash on Hand: 1139

Republicans: K.Bogans/ C.Edenfield/ R.McKinney/ J.Stone:  Total Raised: x/ 14/ x/ 37;  Cash on Hand: x/ 2/ x/ 37

26. CT-05 (Murphy) Vulnerability Score: 96

PVI: 54

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56

Democrats: C.Murphy*:  Total Raised: 1391;  Cash on Hand: 1210

Republicans: D.Cappiello/ T.Nania:  Total Raised: 400/ x;  Cash on Hand: 238/

27. IN-08 (Ellsworth) Vulnerability Score: 95

PVI: 41

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 61

Democrats: B.Ellsworth*:  Total Raised: 762;  Cash on Hand: 576

Republicans: G.Goode:  Total Raised: 79;  Cash on Hand: 45

28. OH-18 (Space) Vulnerability Score: 94

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 62

Democrats: Z.Space*/ M.Pitrone:  Total Raised: 1225/ x;  Cash on Hand: 811/ x

Republicans: F.Dailey/ J.Moll/ P.Phillips/ B.Bromberg:  Total Raised: 111/ 116/ 80/ x;  Cash on Hand: 48/ 50/ 20/ x

29. CT-02 (Courtney) Vulnerability Score: 94

PVI: 58

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50

Democrats: J.Courtney*:  Total Raised: 1193;  Cash on Hand: 1000

Republicans: S.Sullivan:  Total Raised: 187;  Cash on Hand: 127

30. NM-03 (OPEN (T. Udall)) Vulnerability Score: 94

PVI: 56

Democrats: B.Lujan/ D.Wiviott/ H.Montoya/ R.Martin/ B.Shendo/ J.Adams:  Total Raised: 104/ 346/ 8/ x/ x/ 31;  Cash on Hand: 92/ 299/ 5/ x/ x/ 15

Republicans: M.Gonzales/ D.East:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

31. IA-02 (Loebsack) Vulnerability Score: 94

PVI: 57

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51

Democrats: D.Loebsack*:  Total Raised: 491;  Cash on Hand: 380

Republicans: L.Harder/ M.Miller-Meeks/ P.Teahen:  Total Raised: 9/ 41/ x;  Cash on Hand: 5/ 41/ x

32. IA-03 (Boswell) Vulnerability Score: 93

PVI: 51

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53

Democrats: L.Boswell*/ E.Fallon:  Total Raised: 722/ x;  Cash on Hand: 702/ x

Republicans: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

33. ME-01 (OPEN (Allen)) Vulnerability Score: 92

PVI: 56

Democrats: C.Pingree/ M.Brennan/ M.Lawrence/ E.Strimling/ A.Cote/ S.Meister:  Total Raised: 784/ 152/ 326/ 337/ 305/ 46;  Cash on Hand: 443/ 82/ 189/ 196/ 192/ 40

Republicans: C.Summers/ D.Scontras:  Total Raised: 117/ 198;  Cash on Hand: 71/ 26

34. ND-AL (Pomeroy) Vulnerability Score: 92

PVI: 37

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 66

Democrats: E.Pomeroy*:  Total Raised: 1070;  Cash on Hand: 1131

Republicans: D.Sand:  Total Raised: 256;  Cash on Hand: 95

35. FL-22 (Klein) Vulnerability Score: 92

PVI: 54

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52

Democrats: R.Klein*/ R.Rennelsen:  Total Raised: 2295/ x;  Cash on Hand: 1803/ x

Republicans: A.West/ M.Thomas:  Total Raised: 43/ x;  Cash on Hand: 31/ x

36. PA-07 (Sestak) Vulnerability Score: 92

PVI: 54

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56

Democrats: J.Sestak*:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: C.Williams:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

37. IN-07 (OPEN (Carson)) Vulnerability Score: 91 SPECIAL ELECTION MARCH 11

PVI: 59

Democrats: A.Carson:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

Republicans: J.Elrod:  Total Raised: 4;  Cash on Hand: 4

38. NY-24 (Arcuri) Vulnerability Score: 90

PVI: 49

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 55

Democrats: M.Arcuri*:  Total Raised: 760;  Cash on Hand: 521

Republicans:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

39. KY-06 (Chandler) Vulnerability Score: 90

PVI: 43

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 60

Democrats: B.Chandler*:  Total Raised: 594;  Cash on Hand: 1025

Republicans: T.McCurdy/ J.Larson:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

40. CO-03 (Salazar) Vulnerability Score: 89

PVI: 44

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 62

Democrats: J.Salazar*:  Total Raised: 784;  Cash on Hand: 533

Republicans: W.Wolf:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

41. OH-06 (Wilson) Vulnerability Score: 89

PVI: 50

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 62

Democrats: C.Wilson*:  Total Raised: 395;  Cash on Hand: 295

Republicans: R.Stobbs:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand: x

42. KS-03 (Moore) Vulnerability Score: 88

PVI: 46

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 65

Democrats: D.Moore*:  Total Raised: 795;  Cash on Hand: 790

Republicans: N.Jordan:  Total Raised: 222;  Cash on Hand: 177

43. NY-21 (OPEN (McNulty)) Vulnerability Score: 87

PVI: 59

Democrats: P.Steck/ T.Brooks:  Total Raised: x;  Cash on Hand:

Republicans: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

44. CO-07 (Perlmutter) Vulnerability Score: 87

PVI: 52

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 57

Democrats: E.Perlmutter*:  Total Raised: 934;  Cash on Hand: 583

Republicans: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

45. IA-01 (Braley) Vulnerability Score: 86

PVI: 55

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56

Democrats: B.Braley*:  Total Raised: 493;  Cash on Hand: 404

Republicans: :  Total Raised: ;  Cash on Hand:

46. SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) Vulnerability Score: 83

PVI: 40

2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 70

Democrats: S.Herseth Sandlin*:  Total Raised: 660;  Cash on Hand: 650

Republicans: C.Lien:  Total Raised: 119;  Cash on Hand: 110

No, wait! Doc. The… the… the bruise… the bruise on your head. I know how that happened! You told me the whole story. You were standing on your toilet, and you were hanging a clock, and you fell, and you hit your head on the sink. And that’s when you came up with the idea for the Flux Capacitor… which… is what makes time travel possible.

It is only a matter of time  before he bursts forth onto the national scene and captures the hearts and minds of thinking people everywhere in this country.

Here is my (obscenely biased but very reasonable) prediction.

Come November (and likely well before) he will be a national phenomenon: Russert will interview him on Sunday morn; Olbermann will speak of him while delivering a special comment; the gray lady will profile him; NPR will consider all things related to him; the right will be disarmed by him; and the left will celebrate him.

Truly, he’s a progressive’s wet dream.

The man is Dennis Shulman. And if you don’t already know it, he is running to unseat the unspeakably awful Scott Garrett (R) in NJ-5.

Garrett is a lovely poster child for the extreme right (e.g., he is still loving and supporting the Iraq war and still hating on stem cell research and a women’s right to choose). Of course, these principled positions Garrett holds are all rooted in his profound love and respect for the sanctity of human life.

However, it’s looking like Garrett is going to have a serious fight on his hypocritical hands if he is to hang on to to his seat this November.

With General Wesley Clark’s recent endorsement, Shulman’s momentum, exposure, and ability to raise those all important dollars continues to rapidly grow.

There is no longer any question about the viability of his campaign.

Indeed, as Roll Call’s John McArdle noted, Shulman has become “a darling of the Democratic establishment on Capitol Hill.”

Please check Shulman out, spread the word, and (if you are able and willing) donate.

I am confident you will be inspired by his life story, his progressive ideas, and his sensible approach to leadership.

NJ-5 is ours if we want it.

Found these two:

In IN-07, from Gsuge Market Research (2/16-2/17),

Andre Carson leads Jon Elrod 54%-36%.

In IL-14, from Global Strategy Group (D), (2/21-2/24), Bill Foster leads Jim Oberweis 45%-41%.

 

So is IN-7 safer now?  And does Foster have a real chance IN-14?   What do you think?

Mark B. McCracken, Democratic candidate for PA’s 5th District, addressed the Jefferson County Democratic Committee last night. He discussed a major issue facing the 5th District: fiscal responsibility. He specifically addressed the upcoming stimulus plan.

His points were that while it may seem that the government is handing out free money, most Americans will use this money to pay down debt, not go on massive shopping sprees. He questioned where the money was coming from and how it would affect the massive debt the government is carrying. He stressed that simply printing money isn’t the solution and will only deepen the hole.

Mark also connected this issue with our Middle East strategy, or lack thereof. He points out that we have now spent 3/4 of a TRILLION dollars on this war ($750,000,000,000). Yet we still find ways to give tax breaks to the rich and subsidies to the oil industry. People of the 5th District end up paying $100+ per barrel in oil and over $3.00 at the pump to give money to a business enjoying record profits.

On an additional note, Mark McCracken continues to rack up endorsements from elected officials. Keith Bierly, a former four term Centre County Commissioner, supports McCracken and states “Mark is making decisions every day that affect the lives of our citizens. He knows the people and the issues and realizes that health care, job opportunities, and alternative sources of energy are the three most important issues facing the citizens of this district.

Jeff Pisarcik, a current Jefferson County Commissioner, adds “I’m supporting Mark McCracken for Congressman of the 5th District because I believe that these positions should be earned and not given to people because of their name or because they have money and buy their position. Mark is a sitting commissioner in his second term and in the past has sat on other important boards. He is the only qualified person for the job. Mark understands what the 5th District needs and understands the aches and pains on those living in the 5th District because he lives with it everyday in his job.”

It’s been a while – I think it’s time for another one of these, especially with the entry of Mark Begich into the AK-Sen. So you know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping. Have at it!

Another unlikely House district looks like it will be a competitive race. In Alabama 2, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright has announced that he will be running for the seat of retiring Representative Terry Everett (R).  

http://www.al.com/newsflash/re…

The second district has been a solidly Republican district for many elections (Bush 66% in 2004, 61% in 2000). However, it is a historically Democratic district and has a 29% African-American population.

Bright would be a very conservative Demorcatic member – consistent with this district. What is interesting is that for years ambitious politicians in southern districts like this would gravitate to the Republican party – the fact that Bright chose to run as a Democrat is an encouraging sign for the re-emergence of a 50 state/ 435 district strategy.

Mayor Bright was recruited by both Democrats and Republicans to run for the seat (The Mayor’s office is non-partisan).

Chris Cillizza at the WaPo has more thoughts on Bright’s candidacy and the relationship of his choice to the Presidential election:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com…

While all of us on the left rejoice at the NRCC's lackluster fundraising, and while most Republicans are resigned to the fact that this will not be a blowout year for them, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) is clearly not content to sit this one out, as he exhorted his colleagues to get off their "dead asses" and pony up for the party.  Boehner has a lot to be angry about, what with the slew of retirements, and now the corruption scandal surrounding Rick Renzi (R-AZ).  Apparently, Boehner has been urging Renzi to step down– the one time he actually wants a colleague to retire, it doesn't happen!

Either way, seeing a Republican become this unhinged gives me a thrill.  It shows that they are losing control, and, if more of them start showing their tempers publicly, we can trot out the footage, and frame their entire party as foaming-at-the-mouth lunatic beasts.  And that, I dare say, would be a satisfying payback after their decades of characterizing us as effeminate sissies.  So, go on, Boehner.  Keep ranting . . . PLEASE!

Fantastic news:

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is expected to announce this afternoon that he’ll be running against Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), setting up a political battle between an iconic figure in Alaska politics against one of the rising Democratic stars statewide.

Begich has called a news conference for 2:30 p.m. EST to “announce his plans regarding the United States Senate seat held by Sen. Ted Stevens,” according to a campaign statement.

This should be a great race.