Month: August 2010

• WI-Sen: Know how you can tell that this hypocrisy-on-government-aid problem (see the last couple digests for backstory… Ron Johnson’s company Pacur has been repeatedly expanded with the help of government loans, y’know, the kind that of meddling in the free market that we have to get rid of) is putting a scare into the Johnson camp? Now he’s been rewriting history on Pacur’s website to adjust the founding date of his company, from 1977 to 1979. Johnson had previously claimed that the railroad spur built (with federal help, natch) to his company was in early ’79, before Pacur was founded. (Pacur’s predecessor company was founded in ’77; it changed names in ’79.)

• CO-Gov (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan is out with a new look at the Colorado gubernatorial race; they find the combined Dan Maes + Tom Tancredo vote still less than the John Hickenlooper vote. It’s Hickenlooper 46, Maes 27, Tancredo 17. (That’s a lot fewer undecideds than today’s Rasmussen poll; see below.)

• FL-Gov: Ah, the sweet smell of unity. Well, sort of… the state party finally got around to having its fete for newly-minted gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott, the one canceled last week for lack of, well, unity. Insiders like state House speaker Dean Cannon and next state Senate president Mike Haridopolos toasted Scott, despite the fact that up until last Tuesday they were working hard to defeat him. There was someone important missing, though, that kind of defeats that whole “unity” thing… it was Bill McCollum, who confirmed yet again today that he’s “staying out of” the governor’s race. Meanwhile, DGA head Nathan Daschle (here’s a guy who knows how the game is played) is out with a bit of concern trolling of his own, offering unsolicited advice to RGA head Haley Barbour and other interested Republicans that they probably don’t want to be seen campaigning next to Scott.

• NM-Gov: Biden alert! The Veep will be bringing his patented comedic stylings to the Land of Enchantment to host a fundraiser for Diane Denish, whose once slam-dunk gubernatorial bid has deteriorated into a jump-ball.

• NY-Gov: State GOP party chair Ed Cox is having a helping heaping of crow from breakfast, having to get behind Rick Lazio for the GOP gubernatorial nod… out of fear of the possibility of the even more objectionable Carl Paladino winding up with the nomination. (Remember, Cox recruiting Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy to not only get in the race but switch parties to do so, only to watch him crash and burn.) Cox issued a letter urging local party leaders to get behind Cox, filled with magnanimous praise, perhaps none more so than when he calls Lazio “credible.”

• AR-04: Rounding out their tour of the state, Talk Business Journal/Hendrix College take a look at the 4th, the only non-open seat in all of Arkansas. Despite the rough poll numbers that they found for the Dem candidates in the 1st and 2nd, they find Mike Ross in solid shape, probably thanks to an underwhelming opponent in the form of Beth Anne Rankin. Ross leads 49-31, with 4 going to Green candidate Joshua Drake.

• FL-08: In yet another example of Alan Grayson zigging when other Dems zag, he’s out with an internal poll, and it puts him in surprisingly strong shape against Daniel Webster, thanks in large part to a strong performance by “other” (presumably the Tea Party candidate). The PPP poll gives Grayson a 40-27 lead over Webster, with 23 for “Other” and 11 undecided. That’s all in the face of a new ad campaign from Americans for Prosperity, who are out with ads in the Orlando market attacking both Grayson and FL-24’s Suzanne Kosmas. (AFP, of course, is the front group for the right-wing billionaire Koch family, and the DCCC has recently filed IRS complaints against AFP for engaging in political advocacy despite its tax-exempt status.)

• FL-22: Allen West is out with a second TV ad focusing on economic issues, like that burdensome debt. (He’s talking about national debt, not his own debts.) Still, most of the buzz in this race right now seems to be about his latest round of unhinged remarks on his campaign website’s blog, in which he called opponent Ron Klein, calling him, among other things, a “cretin,” “little Lord Ron,” a “pathetic liberal,” “little Ronnie,” and “a mama’s boy” to Nancy Pelosi.

• IA-05: Rep. Steve King declined to debate opponent Matt Campbell in about the douchiest way possible: when Campbell showed up at a King town hall to ask King why he wasn’t willing to debate, King said that Campbell had “not earned it.”

• MI-01, MI-07: Well, it looks like the fake Tea Party is truly finished in Michigan. The Michigan Court of Appeals today upheld the Board of Canvassers’ decision them off the ballot because of irregularities in submitted signatures. There were Tea Party candidates ready to go in the 1st and the 7th, both competitive districts where Dems would be glad to have some right-wing votes siphoned off from the GOP candidates.

• MO-04: Rep. Ike Skelton is the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and he wants you to know it. Instead of focusing on the endless jobs-jobs-jobs mantra like many Dems, he’s focusing on military issues and his commitment to veterans. His first two ads featured testimonials from a Marine mother and an Army veteran, and his third ad attacked GOP opponent Vicky Hartzler over her apparently insufficient support of the military.

• NC-11: Two Democratic House members out with internals? Let’s hope this is actually a trend. Buried in a CQ article about his new TV ad (with a buy in the “high five digits”), there are also some details about Heath Shuler’s most recent internal poll. The poll, taken by Anzalone-Liszt, gives Shuler a 51-34 lead over Jeff Miller. More ads are likely to follow, as Shuler leads Miller in the cash department, $1.4 million to $70K.

• NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon’s getting some big name help on the stump. Bill Clinton will join McMahon for a Friday rally on Staten Island.

• NY-20: Scott Murphy’s dipping into his big war chest with another TV spot, this one focusing on his job-preserving efforts. Murphy opponent Chris Gibson, meantime, dropped a bombshell in his first debate against Murphy last week: that government intervention exacerbated the Great Depression rather than mitigated it (a theory advanced by Amity Schlaes and approximately, oh, zero other respected economists).

• PA-10: What’s up with former US Attorneys in Pennsylvania turning out to be thin-skinned, poor campaigners? There’s the Mary Beth Buchanan implosion, of course, but now video has turned up of Tom Marino’s recent encounter with protesters at a Williamsport appearance. Marino yells back to protestors “What do you do for a job?” and “What kind of welfare are you on?” (No word on whether these questions were punctuated with “You hippies!”)

• VA-05: Here’s a guy we haven’t thought about in a long time: Ross Perot. Yet, Tom Perriello is dusting off Perot and holding him up as a guy he liked, especially in terms of his deficit hawkishness. He did so in the context of meeting with the local Tea Partiers (where he also reiterated his support for canning the Geithner/Summers economic team), probably in an effort to find some common ground with them.

• State legislatures: The DLCC has a memorandum out that lays out where they’ll be focusing their efforts this year (and thus what they consider to be the most competitive state legislative chambers). The 10 chambers they’re emphasizing on defense are the Alabama Senate, Colorado Senate, Indiana House, Nevada Senate, New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, Wisconsin Assembly, and Wisconsin House. They’re also going on the offense in the Michigan Senate, Kentucky Senate, Tennessee House, and Texas House..

• WA-Init: SurveyUSA has polls of a handful of initiatives that’ll be on the ballot in November. Most significantly, they find continued (although reduced, from their previous poll) support for I-1098, which would create a state income tax for high earners. It’s currently passing, 41-33. Meanwhile, Washingtonians quite literally want to have their cake and eat it too: they’re favoring I-1107, by a 42-34 margin, which would end sales taxes on candy and end temporary taxes on bottled water and soft drinks.

• Dave’s App: Just in time for the school year, here’s a new time-wasting opportunity: Dave’s Redistricting Application now has partisan data for Pennsylvania. (There’s also partisan data for CA, MD, NC, NM, NY, and TX.)

• Polltopia: PPP wants to know where you think they should poll next. Interesting options include Maine and West Virginia (where there’s the tantalizing prospect of House races being polled, too).

• Ads:

• MO-Sen: Anti-Roy Blunt ad from Robin Carnahan

• NH-Gov: Positive jobs-jobs-jobs spot from John Lynch

• FL-02: Allen Boyd hits Steve Southerland on Social Security privatization, 17th Amendment

• IN-09: Anti-Baron Hill from Todd Young

• IN-09: Anti-Todd Young ad from Baron Hill (Social Security privatization… sensing a theme here?)

• MN-06: Bio ad from Tarryl Clark

• MN-06: Michele Bachmann wants you to know that she hates taxes

• NJ-12: Emergency Committee for Israel ad against Rush Holt (“modest but real” buy)

• OH-15: Positive bio ad about Steve Stivers’ military service

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski’s first TV ad, hitting Lou Barletta over what a shithole Hazleton is

• SC-05: Bio ad from Mick Mulvaney (his first ad)

• WI-07: DCCC ad attacking Sean Duffy over Social Security privatization (their first independent expenditure ad anywhere)

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 36%, Dan Maes (R) 24%, Tom Tancredo (C) 14%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman (R) 44%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

The new tally:

More updates as we get ’em.

11:50pm: Y’know, I get a lot of spam from the DSCC. It’s been well over an hour since Murkowski has conceded, and the DSCC has yet to put out a statement on the results. Quite the operation they’re running there.

11:33pm: It didn’t occur to me to mention this, but Murkowski also said she’d be “going home” to Alaska at the end of her term — so it’s pretty clear that she won’t be attempting a write-in campaign.

11:21pm: One final ballot update for the night — Miller added 628 votes and Murkowski added 467, bringing the gap to 1,630 for Miller. Which wasn’t far off from where we started the day at!

10:28pm: Murkowski just walked away from the podium without endorsing Joe Miller. Game on!

10:21pm: Murkowski just conceded to Miller.

9:41pm: Murkowski will hold a press conference in twenty minutes.

9:40pm: Being generous, let’s say there are 7000 valid GOP votes left to be counted. Murkowski would need 61% of them to win. She’s done.

9:18pm: Murkowski is basically toast at this point, as she just couldn’t get the juice she needed from Anchorage or the Southeast. 15,700 votes were counted today, and a number of Kenai absentees will be added to the total later in the evening. Murkowski would have to win an absurd amount of the uncounted GOP ballots (which has to be, what, 7K or so at most?) to pull this out. Not happening.

9:04pm: Miller adds 1,062 votes to Murkowski’s 803 in the latest update. Miller’s lead has shot up to 1,469 votes.

8:24pm: So that last batch of votes came from Southeast Alaska, the Kenai Peninsula and Fairbanks — 3,000 more votes from these areas are expected tonight, but it’s starting to look pretty grim for Murkowski.

8:08pm: And we’re back! Since we last checked in, Miller added 1,057 votes and Murkowski took 1,139. The gap is now 1,210 votes.

7:20pm: SSP is taking a temporary break from the liveblog, but we’ll be back shortly. In the meantime, keep your eyes peeled on that DoE page!

7:08pm: We finally have a bit of movement — Miller picks up 353 votes and Murkowski adds 355. 50,241 to 48,949 for Miller.

6:50pm: The ADN reports that the next round of ballots to report will come from Southeast Alaska and the Kenai peninsula — about 5800 absentees and questioned ballots from areas where Murkowski is hoping to romp in. Following that, we’ll get a look at about 2750 votes from Miller-friendly Fairbanks.

5:54pm: In the comments, trhawk notes that it looks like the absentees from Anchorage HDs 27-32 have already reported, and possibly were bundled into the Mat-Su valley results. Murkowski won those HDs by nearly 55% on e-day, and if their absentees were lumped in with the Mat-Su update, that would explain why Murkowski appeared have run so much stronger in those Miller-friendly areas. Meanwhile, the ADN reports that Anchorage is done for the day, although 3000 questioned ballots and a “small number” of absentees remain to be counted there. The next round of votes to be counted will come from Juneau, followed by Fairbanks later in the evening.

5:24pm: Another update — Miller just added 322 votes, Murkowski 488.

5:19pm: From Shira Toeplitz:

There will be 1,273 fewer ballots processed today than planned. Election officials announced that a set of questioned ballots from four state House districts in the Mat-Su Valley area will be opened Friday instead of Tuesday. …During last Tuesday’s primary, the ballots in these four state House districts voted for Miller over Murkowski, 62 percent to 38 percent.

4:29pm: The Anchorage Daily News reports that the latest batch of absentees came from the Mat-Su valley, specifically House Districts 13 through 16. Crunching the numbers myself, on election day, Murkowski won 38% of the vote in those districts. Among the absentees, she’s picking up nearly 48% of the vote — a much bigger improvement than among the Anchorage absentees, but she still has a long way to go.

4:12pm: A bunch more votes just came in — we’re now at 49,566 for Miller and 48,106 for Murkowski. Miller added 1,515 votes and Murkowski added 1,380.

3:55pm: Mike Memoli tweets that Alaska DoE officials are expecting to count ballots until 10pm Eastern tonight.

3:36pm: Crunching the numbers using Jeffmd’s spreadsheet, Murkowski won House Districts 17 through 26 on election day by 53% of the vote. She won 57% from this batch of absentees.

3:25pm: Good news for Jumbo Joe Miller:

It looks like 2,391 votes were counted in this first batch. They’re from Districts 17 through 26, all Anchorage.

As noted below, Murkowski was expected to run strongly here. Miller-friendly areas will report later today.

3:16pm: It’s not yet clear where this batch of votes came from, but ADN reported that the first batch of results was expected to come from the Anchorage area, where Murkowski ran strongly. More votes are expected from the Mat-Su and Fairbanks regions later today, which are more Miller-friendly.

3:10pm: We now have our first update (of several to come) today. Miller added 1,024 votes to his tally today, and Murkowski added 1,367.

Public Policy Polling (8/27-28, likely voters, 7/27-31 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 38 (37)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (39)

Michael Beitler (L): 6 (7)

Undecided: 13 (17)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in the North Carolina Senate race according to PPP. Richard Burr has put a little distance between him and Elaine Marshall, with most of the movement to Burr coming out of the undecided column, as it seems like he’s finally getting better acquainted with his constituents (he’s up to only 20% “no opinion,” a Paris Hilton level of celebrity compared to where he was a year and a half ago; he has 38/42 approvals). Marshall is still laboring in obscurity by comparison, although she’s at least in positive territory, with 24/21 favorables.

The move from a 2-point Burr lead to a 5-point lead may seem like bad news, but Burr’s leads were 5, 7, and 1 in previous PPP polls, so it’s all routine movement within a narrow band. The overall regression lines are showing some mild tightening; the question is whether there’s enough time and money for Marshall to make her case in the next few months, or whether Burr can ride the national environment to another term.

In lieu of an AM digest, let’s set the stage for what should be yet another dramatic day in the Alaska Republican primary saga.

Change Gonna Come: Since Wednesday, the scoreboard has been frozen like this:

438 of 438 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Lisa Murkowski	45,359	49.10%
Joe Miller	47,027	50.90%

That will all change later today once the folks at the Alaska Division of Elections begin counting their first round of absentee ballots. According to The Hill, 7000 absentees are in the kitty, waiting to be counted today. Given that roughly 70% of the ballots cast on election day were in the Republican primary, we should see the needle move by around 5000 votes. The Anchorage Daily News, however, isn’t getting a straight figure from the DoE, while a Murkowski spokesbot claims that the number of votes counted today will be closer to 15,000 (out of over 25,000 currently uncounted). In any case, we’ll keep you updated as soon as the results are posted.

Paranoid: True to form, Joe Miller is calling for armed guards — or Alaska State Troopers, to be precise — to protect the regional elections offices from Lisa Murkowski’s legion of iPhone-wielding, Diebold-hacking “scrutineers”. The DoE says that Miller’s paranoia is unfounded, saying that there’s no way that NRSC/Murkowski consultant Mike Roman (who also worked on behalf of Norm Coleman during the ’08 Minnesota recount episode) could have tampered with any e-ballots. Murkowski is more or less calling Miller unhinged:

“I believe in our nation’s democratic process, it’s the envy of the world. I have complete faith in our system and I am astounded that Mr. Miller continues to make blatantly false accusations that there is something nefarious happening. Observers from both sides are at regional election offices to ensure that Alaskans get a fair vote count. For someone who wants to be Alaska’s Republican nominee for Senate, Mr. Miller is certainly afraid of Republicans,” Senator Murkowski said.

Burning Down the House: You just have to love how candid Joe Miller is in his radicalism. From a FOX Business News interview late last week (of course!):

“But out of the gate, Joe, what do you start with? Healthcare?” said Asman.

“Oh, absolutely. Defund it. I mean a repeal would be perfect but obviously that would get vetoed. So defund everything. Get rid of the socialist aspects of government, not just in health care but the other entitlement areas that are driving us into insolvency,” Miller said.

Miller went on to say that Congress should have the “courage to shut down the government,” if necessary, to eliminate government programs.

On anyone’s list, the entitlement programs that could drive the nation to “insolvency” in the decades ahead are topped by Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which make up about 40 percent of the federal budget. […]

Miller has said he wants an “orderly transition” away from Social Security, to “privatize” or “personalize” it, while not reducing benefits for anyone who is “currently dependent” on the program.

Referring to Social Security, he told the Anchorage Daily News that “I think in the long run the answer is to get the government out of it, to privatize it.”

Regarding Medicare, he also wants an “orderly transition” to get the government out of that program as well because “The government has broken everything that it’s had its finger in.”

That’s Joe Miller, Pension Killer to his friends.

With a Little Help From My Friends: Here’s a refreshing change of pace — the Politico devotes two pages of text to Democrat Scott McAdams. The article puts the spotlight on the big support that McAdams is getting from Mark Begich, who’s quickly becoming McAdams’ biggest backer in the state. Begich, who not only helped talk McAdams into the race when no other Democrat of note was willing to take the plunge against Murkowski, has been sending staff and fundraising assistance to McAdams, and spent all of last week shopping the Mayor of Sitka around Anchorage.

Politico notes that Alaska Democrats had tried to lure former state legislator Walter Hensley into the race before McAdams jumped in just before the filing deadline, but couldn’t get Hensley to commit to a race against his “longtime friend and ally” Murkowski. There’s now some rumbling that Hensley would be interested in running against Miller, but that boat has clearly sailed. McAdams is standing firm, and the state party has lined up behind him. Begich sums it up:

“There’s no trade-in. There’s no swapping,” Begich said. “And part of the hesitation is that they don’t know Scott. But that’s what campaigns are all about. I didn’t know Joe Miller a few months ago.” […]

“This guy put his name on the line when nobody else would,” Begich said. “That takes a lot of guts and a lot of ability, in my view.”

Meanwhile, McAdams also secured the endorsement of national AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, who clearly liked what he had to see after Begich facilitated a meeting between the two. The Mudflats has the video.

This article by the New York Times highlights what we here on the ground already knew: The political winds are turning against the Republicans here. I already detailed this with my two previous diaries, but i want to add another part: the state of the local races here two very competitive Assembly districts.

Recently, Art Pedroza of the Orange Juice Blog recently wrote a scathing criticism of the leadership and the workings of the OC Democratic Party. While i disagree with him on certain issues, he makes a strong point by saying:

Make no mistake about it- the Republican Party of Orange County is the enemy.  They hate Mexicans.  They hate homosexuals.  They hate the poor.  They are corrupt, for the most part.  Stop kissing up to these people!

Now on to the locally contested races:

AD-68

Challengers: Phu Ngyuen (D) vs Allan Mansoor (R)

Registration: 40.1% Rep./32.7% Dem./21.9% Ind

Analysis: Located in the South-west part of OC, this district is extremely diverse with Hispanic enclave Stanton to the north, down to famed Little Saigon and the ethnically diverse meltingpot known as Costa Mesa. Democrat Phu Ngyuen is running a strong campaign against Costa Mesa Mayor Allan Mansoor, who is known for his Joe Arapaio-like bullying of immigrants. Ngyuen was recruited by the Dems for his strong ties to the Vietnamese community, a very competitive voting group and has the backing of the entire OC Democratic Party leaders. According to the Secretary of State, Ngyuen has $136,604 CoH while Mansoor is at a jaw-dropping $8,617! However, this race is still favorable to Mansoor due to his stature in Costa Mesa and the generally pro-Republican lean of 2010. Still, if Ngyuen can pull within single digits, that’s a win in itself.

Rating: Leans Republican

AD-70

Challengers: Melissa Fox (D) vs Don Wagner (R)

Registration: 42.3% Rep./30% Dem./23% Ind

Analysis: This race is gonna be one to watch on election day. Attorney Melissa Fox is up against Don Wagner, a member of the Coastal Community College District and a vocal social conservative. This district is open after Chuck DeVore’s pathetic attempt to beat Carly Fiorina in the Republican Senate race. Fox has been hitting the ground hard, running a stellar grassroots campaign and recently won the Democracy for America’s Allstar Grassroots campaign. However her fundraising is small, having raised only around $27,000 and having an anemic $7,747. But Wagner manages to beat (or stump below?) that, having raised $163,208 he is now at an amazing….$425. Yes, four-hundred and twenty-five dollars. But to be fair, he did face a very crowded Republican Primary, where he was the underdog against favorite Steven Choi, an Irvine Councilman. The folks at Orange Juice and the Liberal OC have been relentlessly going after Wagner since the campaign’s started. It amazes me that even though this district, with its large Republican registration, not only voted for Obama (51-47) but against! Prop 8 (50-50 narrowly) and yet they keep giving us Chuck DeVore-style religious wacko’s like Wagner. Nevertheless, my heart says this race is a Tossup but my mind tells me its another Leans R, but i’m letting my heart win for today.

Rating: Tossup

For those who are interested, here’s some links:

http://cal-access.ss.ca.gov/Ca… — Secretary of State’s Website for Campaign Funds

http://orangejuiceblog.com — In my opinion, the best place for knowledge on OC politics. Some posters have libertarian tendencies (such as Art Pedroza) while others are solid progressives (like Vern Nelson), but its still a very telling website to learn more on OC Politics.

http://votemelissafox.com — Melissa Fox, Democratic Nominee for AD-70

http://votephu.com — Phu Ngyuen, Democratic Nominee for AD-68

(Note: Wednesday is my first day of school (go juniors!), so my presence on SSP will be limited. But i’ll be back as much as i can to catch up on any delicious cat fud that may appear and of course i’ll stay for the November elections, so this may be my final (diary) post for a while. =)

(Note 2: This post was intended to focus on all local OC races, but i only picked AD-68 and AD-70 because of the competitiveness and visibility it has gotten.)

One of the things I like best about SSP is finding out about interesting downballot races that would otherwise escape my notice. So in that spirit, I’ve put together a massively comprehensive guide to the state races in Kansas in 2010.

Wherefore art thou, Sean Tevis, oh star of the 2008 KS State House races?

While Kansas isn’t exactly high on anyone’s radar for this election cycle, there are plenty of competitive races (KS-03 & KS-04, plus nearly all the statewide offices this year) throughout the state. Join me, won’t you, for a look at what’s happening downballot in the Kansas state Legislature?

But before we get into an analysis of the various districts in play this cycle, there are a few things to keep in mind…one is that this diary wasn’t meant to be published so soon. It was also way too long, so I was going to publish it in parts, but I hadn’t decided on what those parts were. Apparently, I’ll be doing it in thirds, since I just did seats 1-40, the competitive ones, at any rate.

In 2010, only Kansas House of Representatives seats are up, with the exception of …

STATE SENATE:

KS-StSen-07: Moderate state Sen. David Wysong resigned, leading Republicans to choose state Rep. Terrie Huntington as his replacement. With a fairly moderate profile, she must now fend off challenges from the left and right in the only Senate seat being contested this cycle (the full Senate, including this seat, is up in 2012). Republican David Harvey is coming at her from the right, but she survived (barely) with 54% in the primary. Democrat Wayne E. Hodges awaits in the general. Possessing a master’s in public administration, Hodges is an adjunct professor at Park University and a sometime writer/reporter. We could do a lot worse, although Hodges starts at a distinct disadvantage over a battle-tested moderate Republican. Hodges bio

In 2004, Wysong won with 56% of the vote, and was re-elected with 54% in 2008. So it’s not a totally unwinnable district. If Hodges can’t win it in 2010, I’m betting state Rep. Mike Slattery (KS-HR-24) might try to move up in 2012. Of course, even if Hodges wins, Republicans will still dominate the upper chamber 30-10. Rating: Likely Republican

With that little appetizer out of the way, let’s get to the main course of this feast of local political analysis…

Democratic nominee Stephene Moore wields the power of delicious baked goods in her quest for KS-03.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated.  Out of the roughly 1.7 million registered voters, there are also about 10,000 registered Libertarians, along with 1,169 members of the Reform Party. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.

District Map    <—-this is the official map from the Legislature’s website KSLegislature.org.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

Before we start, I’d meant to put something in about how off-year elections are actually the better ones for KS Democrats. A smaller electorate is generally a more moderate and better-informed one in Kansas. Sure, the teabaggers may be out in force, but that’s nothing new in Kansas. And Democrats, as you’ll see, have a lot of competitive candidates up and down the ballot, not only Stephene Moore & Raj Goyle for Congress, not only the best statewide slate we’ve had in a long while (Holland, Kultala, Six, McKinney & Biggs), but even in many state legislative races, Democrats are now fielding pretty solid candidates who can compete and possibly win. So below, find the first chunk of contested districts, all the ones I’ve ranked as competitive that number between 1 & 40.

Among these, there are some that are either totally safe (thanks to PVI heavily favoring one party) or uncontested completely. In districts 1-40, those seats are:

Uncontested Democrats: 05, 08, 32, 33, 34, 37

Safe Dem:  01, 02, 03, 31, 35, 36

Uncontested or intraparty-only Republicans: 06, 07, 09, 11, 13 26, 27, 30

Safe Republican:  12, 21

Geographically, seats 1-40 are centered on the eastern edge of the state, hence the seemingly high quantity of competitive seats. (generally speaking, KS gets more conservative as you go West). Most of the competitive ones below are in suburban Johnson County, which has been going from rosy red to quite purple rather quickly. The exceptions in competitive seats in 1-40 are the rural, Fort Scott-based 4th, the 10th, which takes in the suburban/exurban/rural areas south of Lawrence, and the Fort Leavenworth-based 40th. The two Fort districts border Missouri, and Lawrence is just one county over from the state line (via Johnson or Wyandotte, aka-the Dot) from the state line.  

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-04: 46R/27.4D/26U : District Map : (D) Shirley Palmer (good name, good pic at left) defeated incumbent Lynne Oharah (a man, surprisingly) in 2006 in this Fort Scott-centric district with 51.3% of the vote and won again in 2008 with 53% in a rematch. This year, she’ll face a new opponent in Caryn Tyson, whose father-in-law was a local state Senator and a woman with deep local ties. Tyson’s website, at least, is a careful balance–conservative but not too conservative. She’ll be a tough opponent, but Palmer’s been a solid representative, has excellent education credentials and her local ties are just as strong.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-10: 37R/29D/33U : District Map : (D) Tony Brown –  Brown will face off against Terri Lois Gregory, who’s coming off a strong primary victory. Frankly, Gregory is a rather creepy lady staffer for state Rep. Mike Kiegerl (KS-HR-43) and a fairly hardcore conservative. Brown was elected in 2008 with just 49% of the vote (a Libertarian took 5% and the Republican got 45%). Interestingly, this is Dem gubernatorial nominee Tom Holland’s old legislative district, which I would expect to yield a big enough boost for Brown that he’ll pass the 50% mark this time, in addition to the sophomore swing and going up against a hardcore right-winger.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-14: 43R/25D/31U : District Map : (R) Incumbent Lance Kinzer faces off against Elliott Lahn, a city planner for nearby Merriam. Kinzer’s gotten around 60% in his previous races, but Lahn’s got a good website, raised some money, and has snagged a few endorsements. Kinzer doesn’t have quite the conservative stink of other members of the JoCo delegation, but he also hasn’t faced very many competitive opponents. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-15: 43R/24D/32U : District Map  : (R) Arlen Siegfreid – Archconservative Siegfreid, now Speaker Pro Tem (2nd in command of KS House Republicans), has essentially become too conservative for this district, which was once staunchly conservative. In 2002, Siegfried won the newly-formed seat with 60% of the vote, but it has blued rapidly, with Siegfried’s vote share declining steadily to a narrow 52-48% victory over Sean Tevis in 2008 (McCain got 60% here). If Sean Tevis were running here again, I’d rate it a Tossup, but I’m doubting the website-less and rather invisible Wright will do as well as Tevis. Look for Siegfried to use his influence to draw himself a redder seat after redistricting, or perhaps one in the state Senate. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-16: 46R/25D/28U : District Map  : (D) Gene Rardin – Elected in 2006 by a hair after the moderate Republican incumbent went down in the primary, Rardin has survived two very close calls with less than 51% of the vote. This cycle, Rardin again faces a very conservative opponent in teabagger Amanda Grosserode, which should allow him to squeak to another term, despite representing one of the most heavily Republican districts in the county.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-17: 46.5R/24D/28.5U : District Map  : (Open/R) Jill Quigley – The moderate Quigley faced a primary against teabagger Kelly Meigs as she tried to win her second full term after being appointed in 2007, but Meigs won 53-47 amid a decent turnout (for a primary). A moderate Republican can easily hold this seat–Quigley nabbed about 62% in her first try against modest opposition–but an anti-school teabagger would be considered a prime target. Waiting to swoop in and pick up the seat is Democrat Bryan Cox….now here’s where it gets interesting. Conservative blogs KansasProgress.com (intentional irony alert!) and KawandBorder.net are reporting that Cox is considering stepping aside and letting Quigley have his place on the ballot. She’d switch parties, of course, and run as a Democrat. Also, the $16k left in her campaign account would become useable again, an upgrade on Cox’s $200 haul. Why would Cox step aside? Well, he might if he’s the Bryan Cox that’s a high-level Democratic Party operative who’s now running Lisa Johnston’s Senate campaign and was recently (still?) the Riley County Field Coordinator. Once Cox bails, the 8 local precinct committee(wo)men choose a replacement–perhaps now-Democrat Jill Quigley? Stay tuned folks, because if Quigley switches sides, this will instantly become one of the hottest races around and a great pickup opportunity.

Rating: Tossup, for the sheer insanity of it all…. it’s Lean D with Quigley as a D, Lean or Likely Republican if it’s Meigs Vs. Cox

KS-HR-18: 44.6R/27D/27.8U : District Map : (D) Cindy Neighbor – Interesting career. First elected in 2002 to this seat as a moderate Republican, she lost the Republican primary in 2004, then returned to win the seat as a Democrat in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote, and got re-elected in 2008 with 52.5% of the vote against Republican John Rubin, an Army JAG officer who is back again in 2010. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-19: 43.6R/25.3D/30.5U : District Map : (D) Dolores Furtado – A former Johnson County Commissioner, she won this seat in 2008 with 51% of the vote, and faces a strong challenge from Jim Denning, the CEO of Discover Vision Centers, who won his primary with a convincing 77%. But Furtado’s a tough old bird and she’s not going down without a fight. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-20: 49R/24D/27U : District Map : (Open/R/Kevin Yoder) – The district where I was raised for 15 years. A swingier-than-it-looks surburban Overland Park seat whose Republicans are heavily moderate, being vacated by former moderate Kevin Yoder. Yoder protege Rob Bruchman won a stunning 70% victory in the primary against Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who, despite Yoder’s supposed moderate reputation, ran to Bruchman’s left, favoring opening up liquor sales, keeping abortion legal, and not hating immigrants. With Bruchman squarely in the conservative camp, Dems do have a chance, especially because the candidate for the Ds is Rob McKnight, apparently (I couldn’t confirm this) a former GOP consultant turned Democrat and longtime local resident. He’s been a good fundraiser (including some notable local moderate Republican names) and scoring good endorsements, as well. McKnight is actively campaigning and has a website that, smartly, appeals to a sense of neighborliness against the carpetbagging Bruchman: Kansas20.org. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-22: 34.6R/32D/32.5U : District Map : (D) Lisa Benlon –   Another former Republican state representative, Benlon returned to politics in 2008 as a Democrat, winning 53% to succeed Democrat Sue Storm, who rose to a seat on the state Board of Education. Benlon did draw a fairly strong opponent in Greg Smith, the father of the late Kelsey Smith. Still, the district’s blue tint, and Smith’s super-conservative profile, should be enough to save Benlon. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-23: 33.5R/32.2D/33.5U : District Map : (D) Milack Talia – After running twice before (once for a different state rep seat, the 29th), Talia captured 56% of the vote in his 2008 race. Helpfully for his electoral chances, he’ll defend the seat against “Conservative Constitutionalist”/teabagger Michael Foltz. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-24: 36R/32D/31.5U : District Map : (D) Mike Slattery – The scion of the apparent Slattery Democratic dynasty-in-the-making, Slattery scored a narrow Democratic primary victory in 2008 for one of the most Dem-leaning seats in the county, then went on to win the general fairly handily. Since only Talia’s and Benlon’s districts are more Democratic in Johnson County, Slattery stands a good chance of being re-elected. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-25: 45.5R/27D/26.6U : District Map : (R) Open/Barbara Bollier – Appointed to fill Terrie Huntington’s seat by local Republicans, this will be retired anathesiologist Barbara Bollier’s first race. Huntington got 57% in 2002 to win the seat, 56.5% in 2004, just 54.5% in 2006, and rebounded to 61% against a weak opponent in 2008. Bollier will face off against Shana Althouse, who is actively campaigning, quotes Gov. Sebelius, and is all about education–a good profile for this district.  Her website is good, too: www.shanaalthouse.com   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-28: 57R/18D/24.5U : District Map : (R) Pat Colloton, generally identified as a moderate, is used to cruising to re-election, having no opponents in ’04 and ’06 and taking 75% against a token opponent in 2008. She’ll face the somewhat stronger Elise Chapline in 2010, who has self-funded $7k thus far, but I doubt Colloton’s sweating it much in her dark red seat. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-29: 48.6R/21D/29.5U : District Map : (R) Sheryl Spalding – Two-term incumbent Spalding survived a right-flank primary challenge by 29 votes from the teabaggy Richard Downing and will face Democrat Doug Dowell (good name) in the general. Having survived her primary, the moderate Spalding will probably survive with solid numbers.  Rating: Likely Republican

The shadow of Siegfreid looms large across Olathe.

KS-HR-38: 45R/23.4D/31U : District Map : (R) Anthony Brown was elected in 2004 after wining the Republican primary (no Democrat filed that year). In 2006, he took 56% of the vote and in ’08 nabbed 57%. Brown is now fully identified with the conservative faction in the legislature, and faces off against JCCC professor and psychologist Roberta Eveslage, This fast-growing district contains the northwesternmost edges of Johnson County along with Eudora & the fringes of Lawrence in Douglas County. While Brown is from conservative Eudora, Eveslage is from moderate Lenexa. The battleground is booming DeSoto, where well-to-do parents are concerned about school funding battles because they need to expand their schools pretty rapidly to handle the population influx. Eveslage’s laser-like focus on the issue is smart, her website is decent (http://robertaforkansas.com/) and she’s actively campaigning. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-39: 42R/26D/31.4U : District Map : (R) Owen Donohoe – Elected in 2006, Donohoe has proven to be a staunch conservative, not a great fit for this moderate district, as evinced by his weak victories, 52.3% in ’06 and 51.3% in ’08. Donohoe’s up against retired school principal Joe Novak, who ran in ’08 and nearly won. Now that he’s so clearly identified with conservatives, Donohoe is going to bleed moderate Republicans, probably enough to let Novak eke out a victory this time around. He’s also BFFs with Kansas’ worst legislator, Connie O’Brien, so he obviously sucks.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-40: 32R/35D/31.6U : District Map : (D) Melanie Meier – Our candidate here is awesome and profile-wise, fits her Fort Leavenworth-based district like a glove. Raised in a military family that eventually settled in Leavenworth, Melanie Meier was elected in 2008 (with 56%) but resigned her post to serve in Iraq. When she returned, KS Dems reappointed her to the seat she’d won. Active in her community, her husband’s also in the military, and she’s a Catholic, so it’s tough to imagine a better candidate for this district. She’d be an excellent candidate for higher office, too, perhaps the state Senate or even Congress against Lynn Jenkins. Rating: Likely Democrat

Next up, seats 40-80, including central and eastern Kansas (basically everything from Lawrence to Salina along I-70), some suburban Wichita seats, still a few more Johnson County seats, plus the Chet Edwards(es) of Kansas. Click here to read about the next 40 seats.

Photo credit for potentially the best photo ever of Arlen Siegfreid: the Olathe Republican Party.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s gotta be wondering why all those former employees couldn’t wait until after the November election to up and die. With the death two weeks ago of Lance McNaught still in the news, another WWE star, Luna Vachon, died over the weekend. An autopsy is scheduled, but the WWE paid for rehab for substance abuse for Vachon last year.

• KY-Sen: Democrat Jack Conway’s out with his first TV ad for the general election. The ad buy, touting Conway’s work against prescription drug abuse and child pornography as AG, is for about $150K. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Paul is out with a doozy of a legislative proposal: to audit the nation’s gold reserves. As with many things that come out of the gray area between ultra-libertarianism and black helicopters-territory, the “huh? why?” part is best answered by reading the comments on the article, which apparently suggest that our nation’s gold supply actually been given away as collateral on all our debt to commercial banks/our Chinese overlords/the UN/the Bavarian Illuminati. Why is this getting filed under KY-Sen? Partly because those reserves are (allegedly!!!!1!) in Kentucky at Fort Knox, but also because at some point Rand Paul is going to inevitably get called on the carpet to say whether he agrees with dad’s latest scheme.

• NC-Sen: Civitas is out with a new poll of the Senate race in the Tar Heel State, but it’s an odd little critter, only polling “unaffiliated” voters. They seem to mirror the larger split statewide, with Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 39-32 (with 7 for Libertarian Michael Beitler). 34% of respondents had still never heard of Marshall. Burr is also out with his first TV ad of the cycle, focusing on his down-home-ness, presumably to ward off the “gone Washington” problem that sank Elizabeth Dole two years ago. The buy is for $578K (click the link to see the breakdown among the state’s many media markets).

• NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne just got a big score: the endorsement of the Manchester Union-Leader, the state’s largest newspaper and also one of the most consistently right-wing editorial pages anywhere. Newspaper endorsements can usually be shrugged off, but the Union-Leader’s endorsement of Lamontagne in the 1996 GOP gubernatorial primary helped him pull of the surprise upset of Rep. Bill Zeliff. Can this help him in a four-way split, though, instead of just a two-way, especially when Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie have dramatically outspent him so far? Lamontagne is also finally hitting the airwaves with his first TV ad, with the primary approaching in just a couple weeks. (No dollar figure given, but it’s only a one-week cable buy.)

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle just keeps handing gift after gift to Harry Reid, this time unfortunately timed to coincide with Katrina’s 5th anniversary: video has surfaced from Angle’s 2006 NV-02 bid in which she says she would have voted against Katrina relief funds. One other minor Nevada point, also courtesy of Jon Ralston: Clark County‘s GOP chair just resigned, leaving more disarray in the local Republican hierarchy as far as staying organized and disciplined for November.

• OH-Sen: The national Chamber of Commerce is out with a new positive ad touting Rob Portman, which is odd since Portman has enough money in the bank that he can pay his own way and then some. (The establishment, free-tradin’ Portman is definitely their kind of guy, though, much more so than the teabaggers cluttering a number of other close Senate races.) NWOTSOTB.

• AL-05: Republican Mo Brooks (who blew out party-switching Parker Griffith in the GOP primary) has a decent, but not overwhelming, lead over Dem Steve Raby, at least according to his own internal courtesy of POS. Brooks leads 48-37; taking into consideration that it’s an internal, this race isn’t a likely pickup but certainly still on the table.

• KY-06: One other ad to consider today: Ben Chandler’s out with another spot, this time going negative against local attorney Andy Barr, hitting him on the issue of the bad kind of SSP (social security privatization).

• MI-01, MI-03, MI-07: We Ask America is out with a trio of House district polls in Michigan. As is their usual modus operandi, the Republicans are in the lead. In the Dem-held open seat 1st, Dan Benishek leads Gary McDowell 45-29 (even WAA admits they expect that to tighten a lot, based on Benishek’s name being in the news from the ultra-close GOP primary). In the reddish open-seat 3rd being vacated by GOPer Vern Ehlers, Justin Amash leads Patrick Miles 51-30. And the state’s most vulnerable Dem incumbent, Mark Schauer trails ex-Rep. Tim Walberg in a rematch, 45-37.

• OH-17: “Trafican’t” just got turned into “Trafican.” Although there’s no official word, supporters of ex-con ex-Rep. Jim Traficant are saying that re-canvassing of petitions has yielded enough valid signatures to get him on the ballot as an independent. He was only 20 shy, and they’ve found at least 27 new valid signatures. Traficant isn’t likely to be much of a factor against incumbent Rep. Tim Ryan in this solidly blue district, though.

• AGs: I know I can rely on Louis Jacobson to go even deeper into the weeds than we here at SSP ever will. Writing for Governing magazine, he handicaps and encapsulates the nation’s many state Attorney General races. He finds the Dems (who currenly have a 32-18 edge in AG positions) in danger of losing at least six seats this year, including Dem-held open seats in California, Arizona, and Georgia. One of the Dems’ best (if only) offensive opportunities is Bill McCollum’s old post in Florida. The St. Petersburg Times has a deeper profile of the race between Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber, and the Sarah Palin-backed Hillsborough Co. prosecutor Pam Bondi.

• Mayors: Here’s a second poll in a week’s time showing current Washington, DC mayor Adrian Fenty significantly trailing in his bid for re-election, against Democratic primary opponent Vincent Gray. The Washington Post finds Gray leading Fenty 53-36 among likely voters, or 49-36 among registered voters.

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 57%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 37%, Mary Fallin (R) 52%

• OK-Sen: Jim Rogers (D) 24%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 67%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 19%, Jim DeMint (R) 63%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 48%, John Raese (R) 42%

After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.  

Some basic background:

1)  On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.  

2)  Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play.  This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.

3)  Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.

Safe Democratic (7)

Hawaii

Maryland

New York

New York

Oregon

Vermont

West Virginia

Likely Democratic (1)

Connecticut

Leans Democratic (3)

California

Nevada

Washington

Tossup (6)

Colorado

Florida

Illinois

Kentucky

Ohio

Wisconsin

Leans Republican (3)

Missouri

New Hampshire

Pennsylvania

Likely Republican (6)

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

Indiana

Louisiana

North Carolina

Safe Republican (11)

Alabama

Arizona

Georgia

Idaho

Iowa

Kansas

North Dakota

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Utah

Oh please, oh please:

The Tea Party Express, which spent some $600,000 on Alaska Republican Joe Miller’s primary challenge to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), says it’s preparing to do the same on behalf of Christine O’Donnell (R) in Delaware. […]

Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell said Monday that his organization is already cutting TV and radio ads in Delaware and expects to be on the air by the end of the week. Russell said he hopes to match the support the group offered in GOP primaries in Utah, Nevada and Alaska this year.  

“All of our spending is dependent on the enthusiasm of the Tea Party Express members,” Russell said. “It’s up to that race and that candidate to capture their imagination.”

As to whether O’Donnell has done that to this point, Russell admits “not quite yet.” But he expressed confidence that the money will flood in over the coming days.  

“I’m sure we’ll be spending six figures in Delaware,” Russell predicted.

After powering Mike Lee, Sharron Angle and Joe Miller to stunning primary victories (or, in Miller’s case, a still-unconfirmed kill), the weight of the Tea Party Express’ independent expenditures cannot be ignored.

Establishment Republicans in Delaware appear to be livid at this news (and O’Donnell’s candidacy in general), with state GOP chair Tom Ross call O’Donnell “a perennial candidate who lacks the standing in Delaware to get elected to anything.” The Politico recently profiled O’Donnell’s long-shot bid, and she had some choice quotes on Castle, describing him as “not a church-friendly candidate” and “the most liberal Republican in the House” who could be toppled in a closed GOP primary. (Less savory was O’Donnell’s campaign manager spouting off about Castle being a “70-year-old bad heart Republican.”)

Meanwhile, the rest of us are hiding quietly behind the washing machine.