Ryan_in_DelCo’s 2010 US Senate Predictions – August 30, 2010

After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.  

Some basic background:

1)  On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.  

2)  Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play.  This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.

3)  Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.

Safe Democratic (7)

Hawaii

Maryland

New York

New York

Oregon

Vermont

West Virginia

Likely Democratic (1)

Connecticut

Leans Democratic (3)

California

Nevada

Washington

Tossup (6)

Colorado

Florida

Illinois

Kentucky

Ohio

Wisconsin

Leans Republican (3)

Missouri

New Hampshire

Pennsylvania

Likely Republican (6)

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

Indiana

Louisiana

North Carolina

Safe Republican (11)

Alabama

Arizona

Georgia

Idaho

Iowa

Kansas

North Dakota

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Utah

4 thoughts on “Ryan_in_DelCo’s 2010 US Senate Predictions – August 30, 2010”

  1. We’re in agreement on most ratings here and on almost all the race outcomes at the moment.  In fact, we’ve got the same number of seats changing hands, the only difference being that I have Giannoulias winning in IL and Paul winning in KY, while you’ve got Kirk winning IL and Conway winning KY.  

    Actually, I also had Crist winning FL last time around, but I think that’s going to change when I re-do my Senate rankings next time, Rubio has been greatly aided by Kendrick Meek’s resurgence in the wake of the D primary there.  (Though, time will tell if Crist is down because of Meek getting a nice primary bounce that will eventually fade)

  2. I also find little to take issue with here.  You did a very reasonable job, and I think this is about where all of these races are at right now.  I think in the end, Democrats win California, Wisconsin, and Washington.  The rest of the toss-ups, we’ll see.

    I think the hardest race to predict is Kentucky.  If the GOP would have gone with Trey Grayson (as generic of an R as you could possibly find), I think that losing by around 12 points or so would have been the best Jack Conway could have expected.  But they went with Dr. Gold Standard.  I could see certain senarios where either Paul or Conway could open a clear lead by election day, or could see this one staying within the margin of error until the votes are counted.

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