After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.
Some basic background:
1) On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.
2) Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play. This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.
3) Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.
Safe Democratic (7)
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
New York
Oregon
Vermont
West Virginia
Likely Democratic (1)
Connecticut
Leans Democratic (3)
California
Nevada
Washington
Tossup (6)
Colorado
Florida
Illinois
Kentucky
Ohio
Wisconsin
Leans Republican (3)
Missouri
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Likely Republican (6)
Alaska
Arkansas
Delaware
Indiana
Louisiana
North Carolina
Safe Republican (11)
Alabama
Arizona
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
I find little to object to here. Although I consider WI, WA, and CA to be in the same category, be that tossup or Lean D.
We’re in agreement on most ratings here and on almost all the race outcomes at the moment. In fact, we’ve got the same number of seats changing hands, the only difference being that I have Giannoulias winning in IL and Paul winning in KY, while you’ve got Kirk winning IL and Conway winning KY.
Actually, I also had Crist winning FL last time around, but I think that’s going to change when I re-do my Senate rankings next time, Rubio has been greatly aided by Kendrick Meek’s resurgence in the wake of the D primary there. (Though, time will tell if Crist is down because of Meek getting a nice primary bounce that will eventually fade)
I also find little to take issue with here. You did a very reasonable job, and I think this is about where all of these races are at right now. I think in the end, Democrats win California, Wisconsin, and Washington. The rest of the toss-ups, we’ll see.
I think the hardest race to predict is Kentucky. If the GOP would have gone with Trey Grayson (as generic of an R as you could possibly find), I think that losing by around 12 points or so would have been the best Jack Conway could have expected. But they went with Dr. Gold Standard. I could see certain senarios where either Paul or Conway could open a clear lead by election day, or could see this one staying within the margin of error until the votes are counted.