March 2011 – Swing State Project

A Closer Look at the 25 Fastest-Growing Districts

Yesterday I created lists of the biggest gainers and losers among congressional districts over the period of 2000-10, but only hinted at the changes in racial composition that were underlying the overall population changes. A longer post about the racial composition (analogous to this one I did a year and a half ago) changes is in the works, but as part of that I conceived of this table… which really would have worked better with yesterday’s piece, so I’m giving it its own home here. It shows the numeric change in each district, broken down by the numeric change among each race in each district.

What should stand out here is that among the 25 biggest gainers, in most of the districts, the combined non-white gains exceeded the (non-Hispanic) white gains. Among the few that didn’t, some are districts that are either heavy on retirees (AZ-02, FL-05), some have a large Mormon population (AZ-06, UT-03), with a few a little harder to classify (GA-09 is sort of the exurban white flight receptacle from the rest of the Atlanta area, and ID-01 is a mix of a lot of Mormons and a lot of white flight from southern California). As always, as I’ve cautioned many times before, these districts aren’t an immediate panacea for Democrats and look to stay fairly red for the short term; with most of these districts full of kids (kids who aren’t likely to grow up to be Republicans, though!), gains at the ballot box are going to unfold slooooowly.

District	Rep.	Total change	White change	Black change	Asian change	Hispanic change
NV-03	Heck (R)	378,510	108,587	40,011	71,132	136,127
AZ-02	Franks (R)	331,404	171,702	20,194	14,194	110,853
AZ-06	Flake (R)	330,373	183,522	18,103	23,727	89,920
TX-10	McCaul (R)	329,844	81,819	49,129	31,182	159,747
FL-05	Nugent (R)	289,814	178,699	27,165	10,496	65,238
CA-45	Bono Mack (R)	275,656	56,706	17,886	22,645	170,850
GA-07	Woodall (R)	272,680	10,327	123,993	47,477	80,659
TX-26	Burgess (R)	263,279	112,403	20,457	21,450	100,522
TX-22	Olson (R)	259,220	10,994	66,263	64,288	112,521
TX-31	Carter (R)	250,233	108,700	24,991	16,193	89,632
NC-09	Myrick (R)	232,672	96,914	62,615	15,404	47,784
VA-10	Wolf (R)	225,723	58,443	19,165	65,737	71,862
UT-03	Chaffetz (R)	221,687	116,807	4,236	7,233	79,400
FL-14	Mack (R)	219,658	99,639	23,344	7,121	85,608
AZ-07	Grijalva (D)	214,773	31,852	14,353	7,048	154,255
NC-04	Price (D)	207,446	95,066	30,678	30,282	43,656
CA-44	Calvert (R)	205,748	15,323	8,961	36,006	142,532
CA-25	McKeon (R)	205,552	– 11,603	33,418	23,554	156,518
TX-21	Smith (R)	205,024	69,035	13,983	15,086	102,114
FL-12	Ross (R)	202,103	38,827	46,963	8,079	101,630
TX-28	Cuellar (D)	200,565	25,648	3,741	3,060	166,375
TX-23	Canseco (R)	196,502	36,500	8,704	8,756	139,265
TX-04	Hall (R)	194,642	93,402	19,450	12,972	60,583
GA-09	Graves (R)	193,905	116,666	8,550	9,842	53,801
ID-01	Labrador (R)	193,008	141,065	2,289	3,448	39,020

VA St. Sen. Howell Districts in Dave’s App

[Ed. note: This is impressive work. I took the liberty of moving the list of demographic & political info into a table. – David]

There was a request for the .drf file that I created for the Howell proposal of the VA State Senate, so why not make a diary.

For the .drf file, click here.

Caution: the Howell plan splits precincts, which I don’t think Dave’s App allows for. On some districts, it’s a judgement call, like on the borders of the 15th & 20th districts or the 7th & 14th districts. The non-ability to split precincts is also why districts will have the variances in population.

And yes, the numbers correspond to the Howell numbers, i.e. District 1 below is District 1 in the Howell plan.

Data table below the fold.

District	Obama	McCain	White	Black	Hisp.	Asian	W VAP	B VAP	H VAP	A VAP	2000-09 D	2000-09 R
1	58%	42%	55%	31%	8%	3%	59%	29%	7%	4%	52%	48%
2	70%	30%	38%	51%	5%	3%	41%	50%	4%	3%	65%	35%
3	38%	62%	81%	13%	3%	2%	82%	12%	2%	2%	39%	62%
4	39%	61%	77%	15%	4%	1%	78%	15%	3%	1%	38%	62%
5	74%	26%	35%	55%	5%	3%	38%	53%	5%	3%	69%	32%
6	57%	43%	60%	26%	8%	3%	62%	25%	7%	3%	54%	46%
7	52%	48%	55%	28%	8%	7%	59%	24%	7%	7%	52%	48%
8	63%	37%	53%	30%	10%	5%	57%	28%	9%	5%	56%	44%
9	75%	25%	38%	55%	3%	2%	41%	52%	2%	2%	71%	29%
10	39%	61%	76%	15%	3%	3%	78%	16%	3%	3%	37%	63%
11	42%	58%	68%	25%	4%	1%	70%	25%	3%	1%	40%	60%
12	41%	59%	77%	11%	4%	7%	78%	11%	3%	6%	39%	61%
13	43%	57%	66%	21%	4%	6%	68%	21%	4%	6%	43%	57%
14	37%	63%	81%	9%	4%	3%	83%	9%	4%	3%	38%	62%
15	37%	64%	74%	22%	2%	1%	76%	21%	2%	1%	37%	63%
16	72%	29%	35%	53%	8%	2%	38%	52%	7%	2%	64%	37%
17	51%	49%	70%	17%	8%	2%	72%	17%	7%	2%	47%	53%
18	64%	36%	42%	52%	3%	1%	44%	51%	2%	1%	61%	39%
19	37%	63%	91%	4%	2%	1%	92%	4%	2%	1%	39%	61%
20	49%	51%	66%	28%	4%	1%	69%	27%	3%	0	49%	52%
21	57%	43%	73%	16%	4%	4%	76%	15%	4%	4%	55%	45%
22	51%	49%	65%	9%	10%	13%	67%	9%	9%	13%	46%	54%
23	37%	63%	80%	14%	2%	2%	82%	14%	2%	1%	39%	61%
24	36%	64%	88%	6%	3%	1%	89%	7%	3%	1%	35%	66%
25	58%	43%	81%	10%	4%	3%	82%	9%	3%	4%	56%	44%
26	41%	59%	86%	3%	7%	1%	88%	3%	6%	1%	38%	63%
27	43%	57%	83%	6%	7%	2%	85%	6%	6%	2%	40%	60%
28	44%	56%	71%	16%	7%	3%	73%	16%	6%	3%	41%	59%
29	61%	39%	41%	20%	28%	7%	45%	20%	25%	8%	52%	48%
30	66%	34%	62%	13%	16%	6%	64%	12%	14%	7%	64%	36%
31	62%	39%	68%	5%	12%	12%	69%	5%	11%	12%	60%	40%
32	61%	39%	68%	5%	9%	14%	71%	5%	8%	14%	59%	41%
33	59%	41%	48%	9%	20%	20%	51%	9%	19%	19%	52%	48%
34	57%	43%	61%	5%	11%	19%	63%	5%	10%	19%	54%	46%
35	66%	34%	42%	12%	26%	16%	45%	12%	25%	16%	63%	37%
36	64%	36%	42%	25%	22%	8%	46%	24%	20%	8%	59%	41%
37	57%	43%	52%	7%	15%	23%	54%	7%	14%	23%	52%	48%
38	41%	59%	94%	4%	1%	1%	94%	4%	1%	1%	47%	53%
39	59%	41%	54%	17%	13%	13%	57%	16%	12%	13%	54%	46%
40	33%	67%	95%	2%	1%	0	95%	2%	1%	0	38%	62%

Under the Howell lines:

21 Senate districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic

2 Senate districts voted for Obama but have a history of voting Republican

17 Senate districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican

FL-Sen: Improvement for Nelson

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Florida voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50 (44)

Mike Haridopolos (R): 34 (32)

Undecided: 17 (24)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (46)

Adam Hasner (R): 32 (30)

Undecided: 20 (25)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (47)

George LeMieux (R): 33 (36)

Undecided: 19 (17)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (44)

Connie Mack IV (R): 34 (36)

Undecided: 18 (20)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 45

Joe Scarborough (R): 32

Undecided: 22

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47

Jimmy Wales (R): 28

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.4%)

At least three names tested here are almost certainly out of consideration. Mack as you know said last week that he wouldn’t run. The NRSC dumped all over Scarborough a few weeks ago after he revealed they’d been recruiting him; the hostility level there soared to “Ernie” almost overnight. And Jimmy Wales is just some libertarian fantasy candidate – he’s the founder of Wikipedia and has plenty of baggage of his own. (Long before Wikipedia, he created the porny site Bomis, and in later years tried to whitewash references to it from his own Wikipedia profile!)

That leave the bumbling Haridopolos, the would-be teabagger fave Hasner, and the one-time Charlie Crist acolyte LeMieux. I’m not writing any of these guys off, but it’s not a terribly inspiring field (which explains why John Cornyn was chatting up Joe Scar). I wouldn’t be surprised at all if another big name got in, whether we’re talking some random rich dude ala Rick Scott, or Rep. Vern Buchanan (who is himself also a rich dude). Bill Nelson got absurdly lucky in 2006 when he faced Katherine Harris; he won’t be that fortunate again, but he may still benefit from a weakish field.

Anyhow, to the numbers. As Tom notes, Nelson’s scores with members of his own party are kinda low:

38% of voters approve of the job Nelson’s doing to 34% who disapprove. Those numbers sound uninspiring but the main reason for them is that only 55% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, where you’d usually expect someone to be in the 70-80% range within their own party. Nelson gets 74-80% of the Democratic vote against each of the Republicans we tested him against so this is a classic case where his base might not love him, but they’re still going to vote for him.

I agree – I think these folks will come home for Nelson, especially with Obama at the top of the ticket. Tom makes another good point:

Most of the time people focus on politicians’ approval number when analyzing their reelection chances and if you do that in Nelson’s case 38% doesn’t look so hot. I think it might be more instructive here though to look at Nelson’s disapproval number – is someone who only 34% of voters are unhappy with really going to get tossed out of office? Seems doubtful – certainly didn’t happen to any Senators or Governors last year.

Not loved, but not hated. That might just be good enough for 2012.

Iowa Redistricting: New Maps Are Out

Iowa’s independent redistricting commission released its first drafts of the state’s Congressional & legislative maps. (Click the link for all kinds of goodness, including a Google Maps overlay.) The new proposed federal plan – which sees the state dropping from five districts to four – is below (click image for larger size):

I’m cribbing from DCCyclone here:

This map throws together Loebsack and Braley, and also Latham and King, while leaving Boswell alone in his Polk-based district. Loebsack could just move down a few miles from Linn County to Johnson (Iowa City). Latham and King won’t be happy, and I bet this map gets rejected for that reason… no way can I imagine the Iowa GOP going along with giving Boswell a free pass while making Latham and King fight it out.

Note that the legislature can reject this map and send the commission back to the drawing board.

UPDATE: Iowa is one of the only states in the nation which keeps all counties whole in redistricting, so that makes presidential results easy to calculate. Here are the new figures by CD (full spreadsheet here):

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
IA-01	58.0%	40.1%	1.9%	53.1%	46.1%	0.8%
IA-02	56.6%	41.2%	2.1%	52.5%	46.5%	1.0%
IA-03	51.9%	45.8%	2.3%	47.1%	52.1%	0.8%
IA-04	48.1%	49.8%	2.1%	44.2%	55.0%	0.9%

UPDATE 2: I’ve added dots on the map to denote current incumbents’ homes, taken from here. To match up dots to congressmen (current CD in parens):

Black Hawk: Braley (1)

Linn: Loebsack (2)

Polk: Boswell (3)

Story: Latham (4)

Sac: King (5)

SSP Daily Digest: 3/31

Senate:

• HI-Sen: Charles Djou reiterated that he’d wait until fellow GOPer Linda Lingle decides whether to run, which he expects by this summer. (So does that mean until Sept. 21st?)

• MA-Sen: This is some… creative spin from the DSCC. Dems, both named and un-named, are saying that the failure of a Democratic challenger to emerge against Scott Brown is all part of a plan, one that involves attacking Brown (by various proxies, it would seem) while giving the Republicans no Dem to attack in response. This plan is so super-genious, it ought to continue right up until November 6th, 2012.

• NV-Sen: The Lahontan Valley News, covering a Jeff-Jack dinner up north that Rep. Shelley Berkley just attended, says that the congresswoman ” confirmed she wants to run” for Senate – but those are their words, not hers. Please hold the microphone closer to the horse’s mouth!

• VA-Sen: President Obama showered some praise on Tim Kaine at a couple of fundraisers in NYC on Tuesday night. Is this part of a lengthy marketing campaign, or an attempted kick in the pants?

Gubernatorial:

• CA-Gov: A lone unnamed source tells Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross of the SF Chronicle that newly-elected Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is planning to run for governor… in 2014. That would mean he either expects the Hon. Gov Jerry Brown, who will be 76 by then, to not run again, or he thinks it would be a good idea to challenge Brown in a primary. Given that it’s Newsom we’re talking about, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the latter.

• WV-Gov: Rick Thompson has another ad out. I’m told that several other Dems are on the air, but I checked all of their YouTube accounts and found no other ads.

House:

• CA-36: The League of Conservation Voters just came out for Debra Bowen, while Rep. Linda Sanchez threw her support behind Janice Hahn.

• NY-26: Dem Kathy Hochul is out with her first ad (NWOTSOTB), in which she touts her accomplishments as a politician… all of which seem to have to do with cars, in one way or another.

• WI-07: Sean Duffy is just a total asshole, but my heart really goes out to the guy who questioned him at a town hall. Said the questioner:

I’m a builder. I haven’t been building too many things in the last couple years with the economy down. My wife is a teacher. I’m fortunate enough to take a bus driving job. Love it. Just love it. But it’s not very much money of course. It’s working for us.

He drives a bus, and still considers himself lucky. Sean Duffy earns $174,000 a year as a member of Congress and complains that “I struggle to meet my bills.” He also declared that the benefits the builder/bus driver’s wife gets as a state employee are “gold-plated” and are better than those he gets as a federal employee. As Steve archly notes: “What, they don’t have an Office of the Attending Physician in Marinette or Eau Claire?”

Other Races:

• Suffolk Co. Lege: It’s some good news… for John McCain! It may also be further down into the weeds than we’ve ever gone at SSP. A Democrat, Sarah Anker, appears to have won a special election in a deeply Republican seat in the Suffolk County Legislature. Republicans are trying to claim that County Exec. Steve Levy’s very high-profile troubles with the law (see SSP Amazing Digest #325) weighed them down in this race… but Levy’s only been a Republican for less than a year!

Remainders:

• Farm Subsidies: An organization called the Environmental Working Group has a fascinating look at the 23 members of Congress (17 Republicans, 6 Democrats) who have received farm subsidies since 1995. Over the last fifteen years, this group of Republicans has pulled in over ten times as much ($5.3 million vs. $500K) than the Dems. Farm subsidies have been a campaign trail issue – they enrage teabaggers, who savaged the #1 recipient, TN-08 Rep. and agribusiness kingpin Stephen Fincher, in the GOP primary last year over the $3.4 million in federal largesse he’s received over the years. The piece also notes that Dems tried to protect rural members by preserving the status quo back in 2008, but that of course has completely failed. With most of those big-age pols now washed out to the hog lagoon, maybe, just maybe, official Democratic policy toward these awful subsidies will change.

• Voter Suppression: The AP has a good roundup on the stepped-up Republican efforts to pass voter ID laws – despite the expense caused by these laws, and by the fact that pretty much no one nowhere has ever proven a single one of these overblown charges of “VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!!!111111111”. States on the list include Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Fortunately, in Democratic-controlled Arkansas, the idea died in the Senate after it passed the House.

• Fundraising: Today is the first day of the rest of your life. It’s also the last day of the first fundraising quarter of the year, so time to start thinking about donations to your favorite Democrats.

Redistricting Roundup:

• DC: The District of Columbia doesn’t often appear in the digest, but this fits our style: The site Greater Greater Washington has a Google Maps-based game of sorts where you can redistrict the city’s wards.

• Florida: Republican legislative leaders have forwarded on Florida’s redistricting ballot measures (passed last year) to the Dept. of Justice for pre-clearance – an application weirdo Gov. Rick Scott withdrew earlier this year. But Mike Haridopolos (oh, you know him) and Dean Cannon, his counterpart in the state House, drafted their request to the DoJ in a way deliberately designed to undermine the amendments. They claimed they would hurt minority voting rights, but I don’t really see how that’s possible, since the VRA would trump any state laws. Hopefully the DoJ will see through this charade and clear these amendments promptly.

• Iowa: Start hitting refresh! Iowa’s first-draft federal map will come out this morning.

• Louisiana: The state House voted to accept a new map on Tuesday, by a 70-28 margin. Most of the votes against were from black Democrats and also from Republicans from Jefferson Parish, which apparently loses a seat to Orleans Parish under this plan.

• Maine: Maine state law says that redistricting must be done in 2013 – which of course would be after the next round of Congressional elections. Two Mainers have filed a lawsuit challenging this practice on “one person, one vote” grounds, pointing out that every other state (except Montana, where federal redistricting isn’t an issue) redraws their maps as soon as they get new Census data in.

• New York: Republican state Sen. Majority Leader Dean Skelos declared last night that redistricting reform is dead. He said the Senate would not take up legislation that would create an independent commission.

• Pennsylvania: Everyone seems to expect that Dems Jason Altmire and Mark Critz will get thrown into a single district by Republicans. Politico examines what the contours of such a mashup might look like.

• Texas: The Texas Tribune did a National Review-style poll of “insiders,” asking them what the state’s four new congressional districts will look like. 54% said they’ll be 3-1 Republican, while 37% said 2-2 Dem.

Analysis of the Proposed Virginia House of Delegates Map

See the map here. Overall, it’s going to be pretty brutal for Democrats in the House of Delegates over the next decade.

The Democrats currently have 39 seats in the House. Three of them have had their districts removed (Bud Phillips in the 2nd, Ward Armstrong in the 10th, and Paula Miller in the 87th). In addition, Al Pollard in the 99th is retiring, which is pretty much a guaranteed Republican pickup.

That puts the Democrats at 35 seats. 28 of those seats are safe, because any district that voted for Deeds is almost assuredly going to elect a Democrat. (Overall, the Republicans left NoVa Dems alone, preferring to go after Democrats in Hampton Roads and SWVA, while attempting to shore up the seats they picked up in 2009.) In addition, the 12th went from 58% Deeds to 49% Deeds, but the reason for that drop is Deeds’ home territory was removed from the district; I would count it as safe, as it’s based in Blacksburg. So that’s 29 seats.

This leaves 6 Democrats in >51% McDonnell districts. The 37th and 41st are in Fairfax and both gave Deeds 47%, so I would count them as pretty secure. The 100th is based on the Eastern Shore, and the incumbent there, Lynwood Lewis, has enough personal popularity to survive there fairly easily (and his district was slightly improved with new precincts in Norfolk).

That gives the Democrats a pretty solid base of 32 seats. The remaining three districts are trouble: Robin Abbott in the 93rd saw her district shrink from 47% Deeds to 43%. Everyone else is writing her off as done for; I think she can still win, but it would be tough. The other two districts, however, are much trickier. Both the Isle of Wight-based 64th and extreme southwestern 4th are gone the second the incumbents retire, and a strong challenger could unseat the incumbents.

As for offense… It doesn’t look good. Obviously Dems have to go after all the NoVa seats, because that’s where they do best. Tom Rust in the 86th remains the most vulnerable Republican, though he saw his district go from 49% to 47% Deeds. The 34th, 42nd, and 67th districts are also ones that should be contested, though again, the numbers have been massaged to get an extra point or two of Republican performance. Of the three new seats in NoVa, the 2nd and 87th would be good targets; they clock in at 41% and 42% Deeds, respectively. They’d be tough to win, but not impossible. Beyond that, there might be outside shots at the 13th, 21st, and 31st. So the Democrats are probably locked into somewhere between 32-40 seats for the next ten years, unless they start to do better again in the more rural parts of the state. Pretty sad, but what can you do?

Sortable tables of the district performances are below (Democrats first, then Republicans; the four Democrats drawn out of their districts are starred):

District	New Deeds %	Old Deeds %	Change	Incumbent
71	79%	75%	4%	McClellan
69	77%	75%	2%	Carr
89	71%	70%	1%	Alexander
92	70%	71%	-1%	Ward
70	70%	75%	-5%	McQuinn
49	69%	69%	0%	Ebbin
47	67%	67%	0%	Hope
74	66%	71%	-5%	Morrissey
80	66%	69%	-3%	James
90	66%	62%	4%	Howell
77	66%	63%	3%	Spruill
57	65%	65%	0%	Toscano
95	64%	67%	-3%	BaCote
46	63%	64%	-1%	Herring
45	62%	61%	1%	Englin
63	59%	58%	1%	Dance
48	59%	63%	-4%	Brink
36	58%	56%	2%	Plum
53	58%	57%	1%	Scott
38	56%	56%	0%	Kory
11	56%	57%	-1%	Ware
44	55%	52%	3%	Surovell
43	54%	52%	2%	Sickles
52	52%	48%	4%	Torian
79	51%	52%	-1%	Joannou
35	51%	48%	3%	Keam
39	51%	49%	2%	Watts
75	50%	50%	0%	Tyler
12	49%	58%	-9%	Shuler
41	47%	45%	2%	Filler-Corn
37	47%	47%	0%	Bulova
93	43%	47%	-4%	Abbott*
100	43%	41%	2%	Lewis
2	42%	36%	6%	Phillips*
87	41%	43%	-2%	Miller*
10	38%	34%	4%	Armstrong*
99	34%	34%	0%	Pollard
64	34%	40%	-6%	Barlow
4	30%	27%	3%	Johnson

District	New Deeds %	Old Deeds %	Change	Incumbent
86	47%	49%	-2%	Rust
34	43%	46%	-3%	Comstock
42	42%	46%	-4%	Albo
67	42%	43%	-1%	LeMunyon
31	40%	40%	0%	Lingamfelter
21	39%	40%	-1%	Villanueva
13	39%	35%	4%	Marshall
60	38%	39%	-1%	Edmunds
94	38%	39%	-1%	Oder
14	38%	41%	-3%	Marshall
51	38%	44%	-6%	Anderson
19	38%	26%	12%	Putney
32	38%	39%	-1%	Greason
50	37%	39%	-2%	Miller
24	37%	36%	1%	Cline
68	37%	39%	-2%	Loupassi
83	37%	38%	-1%	Stolle
28	36%	37%	-1%	Howell
16	36%	33%	3%	Merricks
85	36%	36%	0%	Tata
76	36%	36%	0%	Jones
84	36%	36%	0%	Iaquinto
73	35%	38%	-3%	O’Bannon
40	35%	39%	-4%	Hugo
27	35%	40%	-5%	Robinson
91	35%	31%	4%	Helsel
7	35%	37%	-2%	Nutter
61	34%	34%	0%	Wright
58	34%	39%	-5%	Bell
54	34%	32%	2%	Orrock
20	34%	30%	4%	Bell
72	34%	32%	2%	Massie
33	34%	37%	-3%	May
17	33%	35%	-2%	Cleaveland
8	33%	33%	0%	Habeeb
82	33%	32%	1%	Purkey
62	33%	30%	3%	Ingram
18	33%	32%	1%	Athey
81	33%	30%	3%	Knight
59	33%	40%	-7%	Abbitt
9	32%	31%	1%	Poindexter
96	32%	32%	0%	Pogge
30	32%	31%	1%	Scott
88	32%	30%	2%	Cole
25	32%	28%	4%	Landes
55	32%	25%	7%	Cox
98	31%	30%	1%	Morgan
26	30%	29%	1%	Wilt
78	30%	30%	0%	Cosgrove
23	30%	38%	-8%	Garrett
22	30%	23%	7%	Byron
3	29%	33%	-4%	Morefield
29	29%	29%	0%	Sherwood
56	29%	31%	-2%	Janis
5	28%	27%	1%	Carrico
6	28%	32%	-4%	Crockett-Stark
65	27%	24%	3%	Ware
15	26%	28%	-2%	Gilbert
1	26%	23%	3%	Kilgore
66	25%	26%	-1%	Cox
97	22%	29%	-7%	Peace

NC Independent Redistricting: UPDATED

The following map was drawn to resemble the potential product of a possible non-partisan independent redistricting commission which has been proposed but unlikely to be implemented in North Carolina. The goals I had for drawing the districts consisted of geographic compactness, relevant communities of interest without regard to incumbency, and maintaining a VRA-protected black majority district in northern/eastern NC. Only 13 counties were split, 6 of which were done to draw a VRA district, and I tried to avoid splitting towns where possible.

NC-01 (Blue) (Open)

70.2% Obama 50.0% Black, 38.8% White

The first district is VRA protected and hence was my starting point since it needed to gain around 100,000 people from its current configuration. The major change is that the 1st now includes the heavily black portions of Durham and Raleigh and recedes from the coast to avoid splitting counties. The black voting age population could likely be increased a couple percentage points with precinct level data since the Wake county voting districts are quite large. This was also the only district which required double-crossing counties, but it is still far more compact than the current version.

Politically, this district is still very heavily Democratic, and although it no longer contains G.K. Butterfield’s home of Wilson he would probably run here.

Safe Democratic

NC-02 (Green) Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn)

55.2% McCain 70.9% White

The second district becomes much more compact by shredding its arms into Fayetteville and Sampson County and settling around suburban Wake County. Ellmers would probably like this district since it’s much more Republican, however she is representing a large amount of new territory. Suburban Wake County was also home to a large amount of the region’s explosive growth as people moved into North Carolina, and the district will likely experience substantial change over 10 years. The same disclaimer for NC-01 goes here though: the Wake County voting districts contain very large amounts of people so precinct data would make the 2nd Whiter since it could trade black population to the 1st.

Safe Republican

NC-03 (Purple) Walter Jones (R-Farmville) / G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson)

54.1% McCain 68.6% White, 24.6% Black

As the second part of the map I drew, the 3rd is essentially a complement to the 1st by absorbing its tendrils towards the coast. The most major changes to the 3rd are that it no longer includes Onslow County and Camp Lejeune while including New Bern and Wilson since it is intended to be a district for the northeastern coast and Outer Banks. While both Jones and Butterfield live here, Jones would be heavily favored and fairly lucky that he didn’t get drawn into NC-01. While moderate-to-conservative white Democrats have historically done well in eastern NC, the Democratic primary would contain a large minority voting base which could increase the chances of nominating a minority candidate or someone viewed as too liberal. Furthermore, Jones has a fair amount of crossover support, likely due to his father’s long tenure as a Democratic rep and his own somewhat heterodox positions. Lastly, state Dems suffered heavy losses here in 2010, which could signal the rise of more party polarization among whites.

Safe Republican

NC-04 (Red) David Price (D-Chapel Hill) / Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)

61.1% Obama 70.4% White, 14.2% Black

The 4th district trades large amounts of Wake County among neighboring districts so that it contains the rest of Raleigh and Durham, in addition to Chapel Hill and most of Cary. Like the 2nd, this district contains some of the highest-growth parts of the state, but unlike the second would have a very large proportion of white liberals. A Democrat is virtually guaranteed to win here, but since both Price and Miller have a large part of their base in the district it would be interesting to see who would emerge from a primary, although it is possible that Price would retire instead.

Safe Democratic

NC-05 (Yellow) Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk)

59.1% McCain 84.1% White

The 5th is largely unchanged from the current district but on the whole moves slightly westward to accommodate the changes to the 10th. It still contains about half of Winston-Salem which only makes up a fifth of the total district. Unfortunately, this means that Virginia Foxx could and would win here.

Safe Republican

NC-06 (Teal) Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe)

60.6% McCain 79.2% White

The 6th was drawn to constitute represent small town/rural central NC and therefore loses its large portions of Guilford County. The largest city in the new 6th is now Burlington with 50,000 people and the next two largest cities are around half that size. While Kissell is drawn into the district, it’s much more likely that he would run in the neighboring 8th if he ran at all and that Howard Coble would run here since it contains a decent portion of his current district. In the event that Coble retired, a Republican would have little trouble holding this seat.

Safe Republican

NC-07 (Gray) (Open)

54.7% McCain 72.4% White, 17.6% Black

The new 7th was drawn to include the southernmost portion of the NC coast and as a result contains Wilmington, Jacksonville, and then Goldsboro at the northern end since I thought it more appropriately belonged to eastern NC than to a Raleigh metro area district. Mike McIntyre might consider running here since he already represents Wilmington and over half the total district. Like the 3rd, this district contains areas which have been friendly to conservative white Democrats, so McIntyre wouldn’t be completely screwed, but would still be facing a very difficult challenge.

Likely Republican

NC-08 (Slate) Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton)

55.8% Obama 48.2% White, 32.3% Black, 8.8% Native, 7.3% Hispanic

The 8th district changes significantly by losing Charlotte and becoming anchored around Fayetteville and Robeson County, which contains McIntyre’s home of Lumberton. This district forms a better community of interest for inland southeastern NC and also has a significant minority presence due to a large black and Native American population. Mike McIntyre wouldn’t stand a chance here though since he’s far too conservative for a 56% Obama district and would likely face a challenge from a minority/liberal Democrat. Larry Kissell on the other hand might be able to win here since it contains a majority of the current 8th and Kissell probably has more credibility to move to the left than McIntyre would. Regardless of who wins the eventual primary barring a Coakley repeat, Democrats would be heavily favored.

Safe Democratic

NC-09 (Cyan) (Open)

59.6% McCain 77.5% White

The 9th changes significantly by moving out of almost all of Charlotte proper and instead forms around the suburbs and exurbs to the east and north of the city. As drawn, this district had the most growth of any over the past 10 years and will probably continue to see significant growth as the Charlotte metro area grows. Sue Myrick technically lives in Charlotte, but she would probably have no trouble running and winning here despite half the territory being new.

Safe Republican

NC-10 (Magenta) Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville)

62.3% McCain 81.9% White

The biggest change to the 10th is that it now includes all of Gastonia and Appalachian territory to the 5th and 11th. The core of the district is a bit more southwestern Piedmont NC now than Appalachian, but still contains elements of both. Like with Virginia Foxx, McHenry is essentially still representing his own seat due to geographic constraints.

Safe Republican

NC-11 (Chartreuse) Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville)

52.2% McCain 88.9% White

The 11th undergoes the least change of all the districts since it is tucked into a corner. The only changes include the addition of Mitchell County and more of Rutherford County. As a result, this district stays fairly swingy, but Shuler should have a strong advantage due to his incumbency and conservatism.

Likely D with Shuler

Tossup/Tilt R if Open

NC-12 (Steel Blue) Mel Watt (D-Charlotte) / Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte)

66.4% Obama 48.1% White, 33.5% Black, 11.7% Hispanic

Nearly everyone who’s learned of gerrymandering in civics class in the last 20 years knows of the infamous NC-12 (though usually in the context of it helping Democrats… yeah, I’m not sure how that still happens either). Well fear no more, the arm up I-85 is gone! The 12th is not a legally mandated VRA district and thus can avoid worrying about retrogression. The district now contains almost all of Charlotte proper in addition to the western edge of Mecklenburg County. It’s still majority minority, but plurality white. However, this district grew significantly from 2000-2010 and went from 55.9% to 44.2% white by total population. Anyway, Mel Watt should be pretty well situated to win here if he can avoid a primary challenge; only 1/3rd of the district is currently in the 12th, but it consists mostly of black Democrats who form Watt’s base.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 (Salmon) Howard Coble (R-Summerfield)

57.6% Obama 58.3% White, 31.0% Black, 6.5% Hispanic

The 13th is essentially a different district, and here it gives the Triad its own district since the 12th is now removed. Since I wanted to make the 5th and 6th as compact as I could without having them surround the 13th, I ended up splitting Winston-Salem and giving the more minority heavy parts to the 13th. An alternative drawing places all of Winston, High Point, and Greensboro in the 13th and has the 5th and 6th readjust to take in Rockingham and Caswell counties plus rural/suburban Guilford, but I felt that this was too much of a gerrymander and it also splits another county. In any event, Coble stands no chance here and probably calls it quits, but since he has supposedly forsworn his House pension and retirement benefits, he might run in the 6th instead. Democrats should easily hold this version of the 13th.

Safe Democratic

Alternate NC-5/6/13:

NC-05 62.3% McCain

NC-06 60.2% McCain

NC-13 60.3% Obama

The likely result: 5D – 7R – 1(Shuler)

Summary:

Overall the district lines have become much cleaner, especially in eastern NC. All but 3 of the seats are practically safe for the incumbent party, and the likely partisan change in the near-term results in Republicans picking up the 7th district. From a compactness standpoint, the districts correlate fairly clearly to distinct communities of interest, especially in Eastern NC, and Charlotte and the Triad get their ‘own’ seats. Again, the black % of the 1st can be increased with a more precise mapping tool since the Wake County voting districts are huge.

What I really liked about this map was the division of southeastern and coastal NC since they constitute pretty coherent communities of interest. Additionally, both the 7th and 3rd contain areas where moderate to conservative Democrats performed fairly well, although Dems lost several statehouse seats there in 2008, but the partisan numbers for Obama/McCain are somewhat misleading since he significantly underperformed Kay Hagan in 2008. Therefore, Dems would have a decent chance to win the 7th with a strong moderate candidate in the right environment, but barring a McIntyre upset in 2012, and thus continued incumbency, would still be the definite underdogs. Regardless, the coastal area is likely a region where Democrats are losing their influence due to increasing ideological and race-based voting polarization.

Lastly, this map goes to show how even an independent or non-partisan map still has its obvious downside since it’s very easy to pack in Democrats in urban areas, and is among other reasons why I think it’s preferable to have some mix of proportional representation. An independent commission wouldn’t pass the General Assembly either since Republicans now have full control of the process, but it is nonetheless interesting to create a theoretically commission-drawn map.

UPDATE:

Per suggestions by user displacedyankdem I redrew the map to feature a rural NC-01 that doesn’t include any of Raleigh or Durham… and it ends up being pretty ridiculous, which leads me to think that it would have to contain either Durham or Raleigh. But here it is with two different configurations for Fayetteville:

In both versions the 4th is now a Chapel Hill, Durham, Chatham County/Southern Wake County district, while the 13th is Raleigh and Cary. The Triad is now the 8th due to that district being eliminated. The 1st also meanders down the entire eastern interior of the state to find black voters, and it’s still only 50% VAP black. The 3rd is now the entire coast north of Wilmington. For these districts, the major change is that the 3rd becomes significantly whiter and more Republican while the Dem friendly district based in the southeast moves to form a third Dem district further north.

The variation between these two maps comes from Fayetteville; I had wanted to draw the 7th as a New Hanover, Robeson, and Cumberland County based district, but Fayetteville had too much population for that so in the first version it’s split while in the second it’s all given to the 2nd district. The split version makes the 7th 51.7% Obama and the 2nd 58.8% McCain, while the second version the 7th is 53.7% McCain and the 2nd is 52.1% McCain. Mike McIntyre would probably be all right in the version where his district contains Fayetteville, but would likely have a tough time in the other version.

Anyway, this all goes to show how difficult it is to draw a VRA district without including one of the major cities since North Carolina’s black population is so diffuse.

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NC Independent Redistricting

The following map was drawn to resemble the potential product of a possible non-partisan independent redistricting commission which has been proposed but unlikely to be implemented in North Carolina. The goals I had for drawing the districts consisted of geographic compactness, relevant communities of interest without regard to incumbency, and maintaining a VRA-protected black majority district in northern/eastern NC. Only 13 counties were split, 6 of which were done to get a VRA district, and I tried to avoid splitting towns where possible.

NC-02 (Green) Renee Ellmers (R)

55.2% McCain 70.9% White

The second district becomes much more compact by shredding its arms into Fayetteville and Sampson County and settling around suburban Wake County. Ellmers would probably like this district since it’s much more Republican, however she is representing a large amount of new territory. Suburban Wake County was also home to a large amount of the region’s explosive growth as people moved into North Carolina, and the district will likely experience substantial change over 10 years. The same disclaimer for NC-01 goes here though: the Wake County voting districts contain very large amounts of people so precinct data would make the 2nd Whiter since it could trade black population to the 1st.

Safe Republican

NC-12 (Steel Blue) Mel Watt (D-Charlotte)

66.4% Obama 48.1% White, 33.5% Black, 11.7% Hispanic

Nearly everyone who’s learned of gerrymandering in civics class in the last 20 years knows of the infamous NC-12 (though usually in the context of it helping Democrats… yeah, I’m not sure how that still happens either). Well fear no more, the arm up I-85 is gone! The 12th is not a legally mandated VRA district and thus can avoid worrying about retrogression. The district now contains almost all of Charlotte proper in addition to the western edge of Mecklenburg County. It’s still majority minority, but plurality white. However, this district grew significantly from 2000-2010 and went from 55.9% to 44.2% white by total population. Anyway, Mel Watt should be pretty well situated to win here if he can avoid a primary challenge; only 1/3rd of the district is currently in the 12th, but it consists mostly of black Democrats who form Watt’s base.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 Howard Coble (R-Summerfield)

57.6% Obama 58.3% White, 31.0% Black, 6.5% Hispanic

The 13th is essentially a different district, and here it gives the Triad its own district since the 12th is now removed. Since I wanted to make the 5th and 6th as compact as I could without having them surround the 13th, I ended up splitting Winston-Salem and giving the more minority heavy parts to the 13th. An alternative drawing places all of Winston, High Point, and Greensboro in the 13th and has the 5th and 6th readjust to take in Rockingham and Caswell counties plus rural/suburban Guilford, but I felt that this was too much of a gerrymander and it also splits another county. In any event, Coble stands no chance here and probably calls it quits, but since he has supposedly forsworn his House pension and retirement benefits, he might run in the 6th instead. Democrats should easily hold this version of the 13th.

Safe Democratic

Alternate NC-5/6/13:

NC-05 62.3% McCain

NC-06 60.2% McCain

NC-13 60.3% Obama

The likely result: 5D – 7R – 1(Shuler)

Summary:

Overall the district lines have become much cleaner, especially in eastern NC. All but 3 of the seats are practically safe for the incumbent party, and the likely partisan change in the near-term results in Republicans picking up the 7th district. From a compactness standpoint, districts correlate fairly clearly to distinct communities of interest, especially in Eastern NC, and Charlotte and the Triad get their ‘own’ seats. Again, the black % of the 1st can be increased with a more precise mapping tool since the Wake County voting districts are huge.

What I really liked about this map was the division of southeastern and coastal NC since they constitute pretty coherent communities of interest. Additionally, both the 7th and 3rd contain areas where moderate to conservative Democrats performed fairly well, although Dems lost several statehouse seats there in 2008, but the partisan numbers for Obama/McCain are somewhat misleading since he significantly underperformed Kay Hagan in 2008. Therefore, Dems would have a decent chance to win the 7th with a strong moderate candidate in the right environment, but barring a McIntyre upset in 2012, and thus continued incumbency, would still be the definite underdogs. Regardless, The coastal area is likely a region where Democrats are losing their influence due to increasing ideological and race-based voting polarization.

Lastly, this map goes to show how even an independent or non partisan map still has its obvious downsides, most notably that it’s very easy to pack in Democrats in urban areas, and is among other reasons why I think it’s preferable to have some mix of proportional representation. An independent commission wouldn’t pass the General Assembly either since Republicans now have full control of the process, but it is nonetheless interesting to create a theoretically commission-drawn map.

What are your thoughts?

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A Less Competitive New Hampshire

New Hampshire currently has two districts that have changed hands a total of four times in the last five years. Whilst it is probably a good thing to have competitive districts, a question we could ask about New Hampshire is what might the map look like if there was bipartisan agreement to split the congressional districts between the parties?

CD 1 (Blue): 48.9% Obama

CD 2 (Green): 60.5% Obama

PPP versus the rest

So, our friends over at RRH think they’ve found a flaw in the way PPP are conducting their polls. Too many liberals and not enough independents they say. The assumption is they are somehow skewing their results in favor of Democratic candidates. Since November we haven’t really seen much polling from firms other than PPP. But there have been some, particularly with regard to Senate races. I thought it might be worth bringing them all together here to compare and contrast.

Florida – Incumbent Bill Nelson (D)

In December PPP found Nelson leading Connie Mack by 8, Mike Haridopolos by 12, Adam Hasner by 16 and George

LeMieux by 11.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In February Mason-Dixon found Nelson up by 5 on Mack, by 21 on Haridopolos, by 22 on Hasner and 14 on LeMieux.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

The latest PPP numbers find Nelson leading Mack by 13, Haridopolos by 16, Hasner by 16 and LeMieux by 15.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Michigan – Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D)

In December PPP found Stabenow up by 1 point on Pete Hoekstra.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In February EPIC-MRA found Stabenow up by 2 points on Hoekstra.

http://www.epicmra.com/press/S…

The latest PPP numbers have Stabenow up 12 points on Hoekstra.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Montana – Incumbent Jon Tester (D)

In November PPP found Tester trailing Denny Rehberg by 2 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In January Opinion Diagnostics found Rehberg leading by 6 points.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/D…

In March Mason-Dixon found Tester leading Rehberg by 1 point.

http://helenair.com/news/artic…

Nebraska – Incumbent Ben Nelson (D)

In December Magallan found Nelson trailing Jon Bruning by 14 points and Don Stenberg by 6 points.

http://www.magellanstrategies….

In January PPP found Nelson trailing Bruning by 11 points and Stenberg by 4 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

New Jersey – Incumbent Bob Menendez (D)

In January Fairleigh Dickinson University found Menendez leading Tom Kean, Jr. by 10 points and Kim Guadagno by 21 points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/oandm/

In January PPP found Menendez leading Kean by 2 points and Guadagno by 15 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Pennsylvania – Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

In January PPP found Casey leading Rick Santorum by 7 points, Jim Gerlach by 16 points and Charlie Dent by 20 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In February Municipoll found Casey leading Santorum by 12 points, Gerlach by 14 points and Dent by 19 points.

http://municipoll.com/yahoo_si…

Massachusetts – Incumbent Scott Brown (R)

In December PPP found Brown leading Mike Capuano by 16 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In March Western New England College found Brown leading Capuano by 13 points.

http://assets.wnec.edu/112/Sen…

District	Obama	McCain	White	Black	Hisp.	Asian	W VAP	B VAP	H VAP	A VAP	2000-09 D	2000-09 R
1	58%	42%	55%	31%	8%	3%	59%	29%	7%	4%	52%	48%
2	70%	30%	38%	51%	5%	3%	41%	50%	4%	3%	65%	35%
3	38%	62%	81%	13%	3%	2%	82%	12%	2%	2%	39%	62%
4	39%	61%	77%	15%	4%	1%	78%	15%	3%	1%	38%	62%
5	74%	26%	35%	55%	5%	3%	38%	53%	5%	3%	69%	32%
6	57%	43%	60%	26%	8%	3%	62%	25%	7%	3%	54%	46%
7	52%	48%	55%	28%	8%	7%	59%	24%	7%	7%	52%	48%
8	63%	37%	53%	30%	10%	5%	57%	28%	9%	5%	56%	44%
9	75%	25%	38%	55%	3%	2%	41%	52%	2%	2%	71%	29%
10	39%	61%	76%	15%	3%	3%	78%	16%	3%	3%	37%	63%
11	42%	58%	68%	25%	4%	1%	70%	25%	3%	1%	40%	60%
12	41%	59%	77%	11%	4%	7%	78%	11%	3%	6%	39%	61%
13	43%	57%	66%	21%	4%	6%	68%	21%	4%	6%	43%	57%
14	37%	63%	81%	9%	4%	3%	83%	9%	4%	3%	38%	62%
15	37%	64%	74%	22%	2%	1%	76%	21%	2%	1%	37%	63%
16	72%	29%	35%	53%	8%	2%	38%	52%	7%	2%	64%	37%
17	51%	49%	70%	17%	8%	2%	72%	17%	7%	2%	47%	53%
18	64%	36%	42%	52%	3%	1%	44%	51%	2%	1%	61%	39%
19	37%	63%	91%	4%	2%	1%	92%	4%	2%	1%	39%	61%
20	49%	51%	66%	28%	4%	1%	69%	27%	3%	0	49%	52%
21	57%	43%	73%	16%	4%	4%	76%	15%	4%	4%	55%	45%
22	51%	49%	65%	9%	10%	13%	67%	9%	9%	13%	46%	54%
23	37%	63%	80%	14%	2%	2%	82%	14%	2%	1%	39%	61%
24	36%	64%	88%	6%	3%	1%	89%	7%	3%	1%	35%	66%
25	58%	43%	81%	10%	4%	3%	82%	9%	3%	4%	56%	44%
26	41%	59%	86%	3%	7%	1%	88%	3%	6%	1%	38%	63%
27	43%	57%	83%	6%	7%	2%	85%	6%	6%	2%	40%	60%
28	44%	56%	71%	16%	7%	3%	73%	16%	6%	3%	41%	59%
29	61%	39%	41%	20%	28%	7%	45%	20%	25%	8%	52%	48%
30	66%	34%	62%	13%	16%	6%	64%	12%	14%	7%	64%	36%
31	62%	39%	68%	5%	12%	12%	69%	5%	11%	12%	60%	40%
32	61%	39%	68%	5%	9%	14%	71%	5%	8%	14%	59%	41%
33	59%	41%	48%	9%	20%	20%	51%	9%	19%	19%	52%	48%
34	57%	43%	61%	5%	11%	19%	63%	5%	10%	19%	54%	46%
35	66%	34%	42%	12%	26%	16%	45%	12%	25%	16%	63%	37%
36	64%	36%	42%	25%	22%	8%	46%	24%	20%	8%	59%	41%
37	57%	43%	52%	7%	15%	23%	54%	7%	14%	23%	52%	48%
38	41%	59%	94%	4%	1%	1%	94%	4%	1%	1%	47%	53%
39	59%	41%	54%	17%	13%	13%	57%	16%	12%	13%	54%	46%
40	33%	67%	95%	2%	1%	0	95%	2%	1%	0	38%	62%

District	Obama	McCain	White	Black	Hisp.	Asian	W VAP	B VAP	H VAP	A VAP	2000-09 D	2000-09 R
1	58%	42%	55%	31%	8%	3%	59%	29%	7%	4%	52%	48%
2	70%	30%	38%	51%	5%	3%	41%	50%	4%	3%	65%	35%
3	38%	62%	81%	13%	3%	2%	82%	12%	2%	2%	39%	62%
4	39%	61%	77%	15%	4%	1%	78%	15%	3%	1%	38%	62%
5	74%	26%	35%	55%	5%	3%	38%	53%	5%	3%	69%	32%
6	57%	43%	60%	26%	8%	3%	62%	25%	7%	3%	54%	46%
7	52%	48%	55%	28%	8%	7%	59%	24%	7%	7%	52%	48%
8	63%	37%	53%	30%	10%	5%	57%	28%	9%	5%	56%	44%
9	75%	25%	38%	55%	3%	2%	41%	52%	2%	2%	71%	29%
10	39%	61%	76%	15%	3%	3%	78%	16%	3%	3%	37%	63%
11	42%	58%	68%	25%	4%	1%	70%	25%	3%	1%	40%	60%
12	41%	59%	77%	11%	4%	7%	78%	11%	3%	6%	39%	61%
13	43%	57%	66%	21%	4%	6%	68%	21%	4%	6%	43%	57%
14	37%	63%	81%	9%	4%	3%	83%	9%	4%	3%	38%	62%
15	37%	64%	74%	22%	2%	1%	76%	21%	2%	1%	37%	63%
16	72%	29%	35%	53%	8%	2%	38%	52%	7%	2%	64%	37%
17	51%	49%	70%	17%	8%	2%	72%	17%	7%	2%	47%	53%
18	64%	36%	42%	52%	3%	1%	44%	51%	2%	1%	61%	39%
19	37%	63%	91%	4%	2%	1%	92%	4%	2%	1%	39%	61%
20	49%	51%	66%	28%	4%	1%	69%	27%	3%	0	49%	52%
21	57%	43%	73%	16%	4%	4%	76%	15%	4%	4%	55%	45%
22	51%	49%	65%	9%	10%	13%	67%	9%	9%	13%	46%	54%
23	37%	63%	80%	14%	2%	2%	82%	14%	2%	1%	39%	61%
24	36%	64%	88%	6%	3%	1%	89%	7%	3%	1%	35%	66%
25	58%	43%	81%	10%	4%	3%	82%	9%	3%	4%	56%	44%
26	41%	59%	86%	3%	7%	1%	88%	3%	6%	1%	38%	63%
27	43%	57%	83%	6%	7%	2%	85%	6%	6%	2%	40%	60%
28	44%	56%	71%	16%	7%	3%	73%	16%	6%	3%	41%	59%
29	61%	39%	41%	20%	28%	7%	45%	20%	25%	8%	52%	48%
30	66%	34%	62%	13%	16%	6%	64%	12%	14%	7%	64%	36%
31	62%	39%	68%	5%	12%	12%	69%	5%	11%	12%	60%	40%
32	61%	39%	68%	5%	9%	14%	71%	5%	8%	14%	59%	41%
33	59%	41%	48%	9%	20%	20%	51%	9%	19%	19%	52%	48%
34	57%	43%	61%	5%	11%	19%	63%	5%	10%	19%	54%	46%
35	66%	34%	42%	12%	26%	16%	45%	12%	25%	16%	63%	37%
36	64%	36%	42%	25%	22%	8%	46%	24%	20%	8%	59%	41%
37	57%	43%	52%	7%	15%	23%	54%	7%	14%	23%	52%	48%
38	41%	59%	94%	4%	1%	1%	94%	4%	1%	1%	47%	53%
39	59%	41%	54%	17%	13%	13%	57%	16%	12%	13%	54%	46%
40	33%	67%	95%	2%	1%	0	95%	2%	1%	0	38%	62%

District	Obama	McCain	White	Black	Hisp.	Asian	W VAP	B VAP	H VAP	A VAP	2000-09 D	2000-09 R
1	58%	42%	55%	31%	8%	3%	59%	29%	7%	4%	52%	48%
2	70%	30%	38%	51%	5%	3%	41%	50%	4%	3%	65%	35%
3	38%	62%	81%	13%	3%	2%	82%	12%	2%	2%	39%	62%
4	39%	61%	77%	15%	4%	1%	78%	15%	3%	1%	38%	62%
5	74%	26%	35%	55%	5%	3%	38%	53%	5%	3%	69%	32%
6	57%	43%	60%	26%	8%	3%	62%	25%	7%	3%	54%	46%
7	52%	48%	55%	28%	8%	7%	59%	24%	7%	7%	52%	48%
8	63%	37%	53%	30%	10%	5%	57%	28%	9%	5%	56%	44%
9	75%	25%	38%	55%	3%	2%	41%	52%	2%	2%	71%	29%
10	39%	61%	76%	15%	3%	3%	78%	16%	3%	3%	37%	63%
11	42%	58%	68%	25%	4%	1%	70%	25%	3%	1%	40%	60%
12	41%	59%	77%	11%	4%	7%	78%	11%	3%	6%	39%	61%
13	43%	57%	66%	21%	4%	6%	68%	21%	4%	6%	43%	57%
14	37%	63%	81%	9%	4%	3%	83%	9%	4%	3%	38%	62%
15	37%	64%	74%	22%	2%	1%	76%	21%	2%	1%	37%	63%
16	72%	29%	35%	53%	8%	2%	38%	52%	7%	2%	64%	37%
17	51%	49%	70%	17%	8%	2%	72%	17%	7%	2%	47%	53%
18	64%	36%	42%	52%	3%	1%	44%	51%	2%	1%	61%	39%
19	37%	63%	91%	4%	2%	1%	92%	4%	2%	1%	39%	61%
20	49%	51%	66%	28%	4%	1%	69%	27%	3%	0	49%	52%
21	57%	43%	73%	16%	4%	4%	76%	15%	4%	4%	55%	45%
22	51%	49%	65%	9%	10%	13%	67%	9%	9%	13%	46%	54%
23	37%	63%	80%	14%	2%	2%	82%	14%	2%	1%	39%	61%
24	36%	64%	88%	6%	3%	1%	89%	7%	3%	1%	35%	66%
25	58%	43%	81%	10%	4%	3%	82%	9%	3%	4%	56%	44%
26	41%	59%	86%	3%	7%	1%	88%	3%	6%	1%	38%	63%
27	43%	57%	83%	6%	7%	2%	85%	6%	6%	2%	40%	60%
28	44%	56%	71%	16%	7%	3%	73%	16%	6%	3%	41%	59%
29	61%	39%	41%	20%	28%	7%	45%	20%	25%	8%	52%	48%
30	66%	34%	62%	13%	16%	6%	64%	12%	14%	7%	64%	36%
31	62%	39%	68%	5%	12%	12%	69%	5%	11%	12%	60%	40%
32	61%	39%	68%	5%	9%	14%	71%	5%	8%	14%	59%	41%
33	59%	41%	48%	9%	20%	20%	51%	9%	19%	19%	52%	48%
34	57%	43%	61%	5%	11%	19%	63%	5%	10%	19%	54%	46%
35	66%	34%	42%	12%	26%	16%	45%	12%	25%	16%	63%	37%
36	64%	36%	42%	25%	22%	8%	46%	24%	20%	8%	59%	41%
37	57%	43%	52%	7%	15%	23%	54%	7%	14%	23%	52%	48%
38	41%	59%	94%	4%	1%	1%	94%	4%	1%	1%	47%	53%
39	59%	41%	54%	17%	13%	13%	57%	16%	12%	13%	54%	46%
40	33%	67%	95%	2%	1%	0	95%	2%	1%	0	38%	62%