See the map here. Overall, it’s going to be pretty brutal for Democrats in the House of Delegates over the next decade.
The Democrats currently have 39 seats in the House. Three of them have had their districts removed (Bud Phillips in the 2nd, Ward Armstrong in the 10th, and Paula Miller in the 87th). In addition, Al Pollard in the 99th is retiring, which is pretty much a guaranteed Republican pickup.
That puts the Democrats at 35 seats. 28 of those seats are safe, because any district that voted for Deeds is almost assuredly going to elect a Democrat. (Overall, the Republicans left NoVa Dems alone, preferring to go after Democrats in Hampton Roads and SWVA, while attempting to shore up the seats they picked up in 2009.) In addition, the 12th went from 58% Deeds to 49% Deeds, but the reason for that drop is Deeds’ home territory was removed from the district; I would count it as safe, as it’s based in Blacksburg. So that’s 29 seats.
This leaves 6 Democrats in >51% McDonnell districts. The 37th and 41st are in Fairfax and both gave Deeds 47%, so I would count them as pretty secure. The 100th is based on the Eastern Shore, and the incumbent there, Lynwood Lewis, has enough personal popularity to survive there fairly easily (and his district was slightly improved with new precincts in Norfolk).
That gives the Democrats a pretty solid base of 32 seats. The remaining three districts are trouble: Robin Abbott in the 93rd saw her district shrink from 47% Deeds to 43%. Everyone else is writing her off as done for; I think she can still win, but it would be tough. The other two districts, however, are much trickier. Both the Isle of Wight-based 64th and extreme southwestern 4th are gone the second the incumbents retire, and a strong challenger could unseat the incumbents.
As for offense… It doesn’t look good. Obviously Dems have to go after all the NoVa seats, because that’s where they do best. Tom Rust in the 86th remains the most vulnerable Republican, though he saw his district go from 49% to 47% Deeds. The 34th, 42nd, and 67th districts are also ones that should be contested, though again, the numbers have been massaged to get an extra point or two of Republican performance. Of the three new seats in NoVa, the 2nd and 87th would be good targets; they clock in at 41% and 42% Deeds, respectively. They’d be tough to win, but not impossible. Beyond that, there might be outside shots at the 13th, 21st, and 31st. So the Democrats are probably locked into somewhere between 32-40 seats for the next ten years, unless they start to do better again in the more rural parts of the state. Pretty sad, but what can you do?
Sortable tables of the district performances are below (Democrats first, then Republicans; the four Democrats drawn out of their districts are starred):
| District | New Deeds % | Old Deeds % | Change | Incumbent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 79% | 75% | 4% | McClellan |
| 69 | 77% | 75% | 2% | Carr |
| 89 | 71% | 70% | 1% | Alexander |
| 92 | 70% | 71% | -1% | Ward |
| 70 | 70% | 75% | -5% | McQuinn |
| 49 | 69% | 69% | 0% | Ebbin |
| 47 | 67% | 67% | 0% | Hope |
| 74 | 66% | 71% | -5% | Morrissey |
| 80 | 66% | 69% | -3% | James |
| 90 | 66% | 62% | 4% | Howell |
| 77 | 66% | 63% | 3% | Spruill |
| 57 | 65% | 65% | 0% | Toscano |
| 95 | 64% | 67% | -3% | BaCote |
| 46 | 63% | 64% | -1% | Herring |
| 45 | 62% | 61% | 1% | Englin |
| 63 | 59% | 58% | 1% | Dance |
| 48 | 59% | 63% | -4% | Brink |
| 36 | 58% | 56% | 2% | Plum |
| 53 | 58% | 57% | 1% | Scott |
| 38 | 56% | 56% | 0% | Kory |
| 11 | 56% | 57% | -1% | Ware |
| 44 | 55% | 52% | 3% | Surovell |
| 43 | 54% | 52% | 2% | Sickles |
| 52 | 52% | 48% | 4% | Torian |
| 79 | 51% | 52% | -1% | Joannou |
| 35 | 51% | 48% | 3% | Keam |
| 39 | 51% | 49% | 2% | Watts |
| 75 | 50% | 50% | 0% | Tyler |
| 12 | 49% | 58% | -9% | Shuler |
| 41 | 47% | 45% | 2% | Filler-Corn |
| 37 | 47% | 47% | 0% | Bulova |
| 93 | 43% | 47% | -4% | Abbott* |
| 100 | 43% | 41% | 2% | Lewis |
| 2 | 42% | 36% | 6% | Phillips* |
| 87 | 41% | 43% | -2% | Miller* |
| 10 | 38% | 34% | 4% | Armstrong* |
| 99 | 34% | 34% | 0% | Pollard |
| 64 | 34% | 40% | -6% | Barlow |
| 4 | 30% | 27% | 3% | Johnson |
| District | New Deeds % | Old Deeds % | Change | Incumbent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 47% | 49% | -2% | Rust |
| 34 | 43% | 46% | -3% | Comstock |
| 42 | 42% | 46% | -4% | Albo |
| 67 | 42% | 43% | -1% | LeMunyon |
| 31 | 40% | 40% | 0% | Lingamfelter |
| 21 | 39% | 40% | -1% | Villanueva |
| 13 | 39% | 35% | 4% | Marshall |
| 60 | 38% | 39% | -1% | Edmunds |
| 94 | 38% | 39% | -1% | Oder |
| 14 | 38% | 41% | -3% | Marshall |
| 51 | 38% | 44% | -6% | Anderson |
| 19 | 38% | 26% | 12% | Putney |
| 32 | 38% | 39% | -1% | Greason |
| 50 | 37% | 39% | -2% | Miller |
| 24 | 37% | 36% | 1% | Cline |
| 68 | 37% | 39% | -2% | Loupassi |
| 83 | 37% | 38% | -1% | Stolle |
| 28 | 36% | 37% | -1% | Howell |
| 16 | 36% | 33% | 3% | Merricks |
| 85 | 36% | 36% | 0% | Tata |
| 76 | 36% | 36% | 0% | Jones |
| 84 | 36% | 36% | 0% | Iaquinto |
| 73 | 35% | 38% | -3% | O’Bannon |
| 40 | 35% | 39% | -4% | Hugo |
| 27 | 35% | 40% | -5% | Robinson |
| 91 | 35% | 31% | 4% | Helsel |
| 7 | 35% | 37% | -2% | Nutter |
| 61 | 34% | 34% | 0% | Wright |
| 58 | 34% | 39% | -5% | Bell |
| 54 | 34% | 32% | 2% | Orrock |
| 20 | 34% | 30% | 4% | Bell |
| 72 | 34% | 32% | 2% | Massie |
| 33 | 34% | 37% | -3% | May |
| 17 | 33% | 35% | -2% | Cleaveland |
| 8 | 33% | 33% | 0% | Habeeb |
| 82 | 33% | 32% | 1% | Purkey |
| 62 | 33% | 30% | 3% | Ingram |
| 18 | 33% | 32% | 1% | Athey |
| 81 | 33% | 30% | 3% | Knight |
| 59 | 33% | 40% | -7% | Abbitt |
| 9 | 32% | 31% | 1% | Poindexter |
| 96 | 32% | 32% | 0% | Pogge |
| 30 | 32% | 31% | 1% | Scott |
| 88 | 32% | 30% | 2% | Cole |
| 25 | 32% | 28% | 4% | Landes |
| 55 | 32% | 25% | 7% | Cox |
| 98 | 31% | 30% | 1% | Morgan |
| 26 | 30% | 29% | 1% | Wilt |
| 78 | 30% | 30% | 0% | Cosgrove |
| 23 | 30% | 38% | -8% | Garrett |
| 22 | 30% | 23% | 7% | Byron |
| 3 | 29% | 33% | -4% | Morefield |
| 29 | 29% | 29% | 0% | Sherwood |
| 56 | 29% | 31% | -2% | Janis |
| 5 | 28% | 27% | 1% | Carrico |
| 6 | 28% | 32% | -4% | Crockett-Stark |
| 65 | 27% | 24% | 3% | Ware |
| 15 | 26% | 28% | -2% | Gilbert |
| 1 | 26% | 23% | 3% | Kilgore |
| 66 | 25% | 26% | -1% | Cox |
| 97 | 22% | 29% | -7% | Peace |
As I understand it, Abbot’s district is still an Obama district, averaged around 49% Democratic in the 2000s, and includes the college city of Williamsburg now. Williamsburg was also moved into Chris Miller’s State Senate district to make it more Democratic. Any challenge to Miller, which is possible with one of the Virginia Beach Republicans threatening to move to run against him, would encourage extra resources to be spent on GOTV in the Williamsburg/James City County area. I think she looks weak only relative to how poorly Deeds did.
I think the 64th is safe until Barlow retires. He’s developed deep roots in the area and was actually more vulnerable when the district included Williamsburg and James City County because he struggled to establish himself north of the river.
I think everyone is depressed when you look at the Deeds performance in these districts. I see no reason why Deeds is the bench mark for Democratic campaigns. A well run campaign has every reason to see Deeds as a floor and something like Obama as the ceiling.
unusually terribly for a Democrat in Virginia. Base it on Kaine or Webb or Obama.
Agree with all of it. Think that the new 2nd district is a good pickup opportunity, some great Prince William precincts there and those Stafford precincts will trend our way over the next few years. The new 87th could go our way as well. Happy to see they weren’t able to make Rust, Albo and Comstock’s districts completely out of reach for us. Beyond that, pretty grim.
By the way, Abbott’s home precinct has been split in two, with her home now represented by Del. Glenn Oder and the other half by Del. Mayme BaCote. Abbott is going to have to move north to Williamsburg if she wants to run.
BTW – we do use Deed’s numbers as a starting off point. If a district got around 40-44% for Creigh, that’s not too shabby, a very well run campaign with a good candidate should win there. If you’re talking higher than that, around 45-49%, I’d almost call that a democratic district. And if Deeds topped 50% and a Democrat can’t win there? They shouldn’t be running in the first place.
Albo, Comstock, LeMunyon, and especially Rust are still really vulnerable. Comstock won by only a few hundred votes in 2009, so I assume she’ll be a top target. Unfortunately, she has a ton of money.
If Dems were able to hold all of their seats, then they’d be up to 44. Of course, that is a huge if. The only way to get a majority would be to have a very strong ticket with a Warner-like performance in 2013 or wait and hope some districts become more suburban and/or diverse.
The Democrats also really need to step up their game in competitive rural districts. Even under the new Republican plan there are a host of districts like the 60th and the 14th where Democrats have been competitive in statewide/congressional races. A local candidate with connections could improve on these performances, but we never seem to recruit someone.
released their maps
The federal map is actually really similar to the one I created, moving the 3rd out of Richmond and creating a Richmond district. The 5th becomes a purely Southside district, and the 7th becomes a swing seat, going from Charlottesville to NOVA. Too bad this won’t happen.
The Senate map is friendlier to Dems than the student maps in my opinion. For example, it creates a Charlottesville-based Dem district, where the other maps carved it up. Still, it really packs Dems in the urban areas.
I don’t have a good feel for the HOD map