Month: September 2010

• CA-Sen: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (40)

Other: 6 (-)

Undecided: 17 (11)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

One more poll for the pile with a high-single-digits lead for Barbara Boxer, this time from the very trustworthy PPIC. They also look at the Governor’s race (see below) and a few initiatives: they find Prop 19 (pot) passing 52-41 and Prop 25 (simple majority budget) passing 48-35, but also finding Prop 23 (suspending greenhouse gas limits) passing 43-42.

• IN-Sen: We’d speculated that this was a possibility back around the time of the Indiana GOP primary, when Dan Coats (an unusually tepid gun supporter as far as GOPers go) won. The NRA today endorsed his Democratic opponent, Brad Ellsworth, who’s pretty much walked the pro-gun line in his red House district. (I know we’d said we’d shut up about NRA endorsements of conservaDems, but this one actually has the potential to move some votes in a key race.)

• PA-Sen: Susquehanna for Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 42

Pat Toomey (R): 45

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I wish this had come out in time for our monstrous Pennsylvania wrapup from early this morning, as it’s an interesting post-script. Susquehanna (a Republican pollster, but one who’ve demonstrated that they know what they’re doing in Pennsylvania; for instance, they got the PA-12 special pretty close to right) sees it as a surprisingly close race, finding Sestak within 3. Is this the first sign of Sestak closing, or is this just the optimistic edge of the stable mid-single-digits band that the race has usually been pegged at?

• CA-Gov: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 37 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)

Other: 7 (-)

Undecided: 18 (14)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Unfortunately, this poll closes out the end of a run of remarkable luck for Jerry Brown of polls showing him spiking into the lead (although there’s a lot of movement from both candidates to “Other,” though I’m not sure who that would be). Importantly, though, the polling period ended before Meg Whitman’s illegal housekeeper problem burst into public view. The SEIU is doing its part to keep the issue front and center, pumping $5 million into a Latino outreach effort that’s largely field efforts but also includes an ad starting in a few days hitting Whitman on the housekeeper issue. Whitman’s also doing her part to keep it in the news, saying she’ll employ the scoundrel’s last refuge — a polygraph test — to prove she was unaware.

• NY-Gov: Marist (9/27-29, likely voters, 9/14-19 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (52)

Carl Paladino (R): 38 (33)

Rick Lazio (C): – (9)

Undecided: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

Marist strikes back quickly with another poll following up on the news that Rick Lazio is no longer a candidate, preferring to enjoy the great prestige that comes with a trial court judgeship in the Bronx. At any rate, they don’t see anything changing other than what you’d expect: most of Lazio’s voters from the Conservative line gravitated over to GOP nominee Carl Paladino, with a few, unappetized by the bombastic Paladino, joining the ranks of the undecided.

• OR-Gov: One major explanation for how Chris Dudley has made a major race out of what looked like an easy Dem pickup hold a year ago is… money. (As with so many other races this year…) Dudley has raised $5.6 million all cycle long, as of Tuesday’s reporting deadline, more than doubling up on John Kitzhaber’s $2.6 million, the largest disparity between the two parties ever seen in an Oregon gubernatorial race. (The SEIU has been running ads on Kitzhaber’s behalf, and the DGA has $750K ready to go, but that’s still a big deficit.)

• RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates for WPRI-TV (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Caprio (D): 33

John Robitaille (R): 19

Lincoln Chafee (I): 30

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.4%)

There’s been a general trend in the last month or two toward the Democrat, Frank Caprio, in this race. But the newest poll (apparently the first of this race from Fleming & Associates), on behalf of local TV stations, shows a much closer race, with Caprio up only 3 on his indie opponent, Lincoln Chafee.

• GA-08: American Viewpoint for Austin Scott (9/26-27, likely voters, late July in parentheses):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 38 (44)

Austin Scott (R): 46 (39)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, there’s only one alarming GOP House internal poll today, unlike yesterday’s onslaught. (Also, note the hypertrophied margin of error, based on an n of 300.) Still, this is another race that’s tended to be on the “Lean D” or at least “Tilt D” side of the equation, and one more juggling ball that the DCCC is going to have to keep in the air.

• ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights, like last time, included both Maine House districts as part of their poll, so we actually have some trendlines now. In the 1st, Chellie Pingree is expanding her lead over Dean Scontras, 54-26. However, in the 2nd, Mike Michaud’s lead over Jason Levesque is a little smaller, down to 44-32 (from 48-28). (In a way, that’s reassuring, because that’s evidence that Critical Insights didn’t just stumble into a much Dem-friendlier batch, and that the flight from Paul LePage seems real.)

• DSCC: The DSCC is having to put some money into Connecticut, a race they probably thought they could avoid spending on when Richard Blumenthal got into the race. They’re starting with a smallish $250K, though. Other DSCC outlays today include $720K in CO-Sen, $464K in IL-Sen, $362K in MO-Sen, and $386K in WV-Sen.

• NARAL: NARAL rolled out endorsements of twenty different Dems running in House races, almost all of whom received $5K each. You can click for the full list, but it includes Cedric Richmond, Steve Pougnet, John Hulburd, and Joe Garcia on offense (the rest are defensive picks).

• SSP TV:

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski’s out with two different ads, one hitting Joe Miller as outsider, the other a PSA-type ad that verrrry slowly and carefully explains to people how to vote for her

• KY-Sen: Here’s a powerful new ad from Jack Conway hitting Rand Paul on the drug issue yet again, complete with tombstone and tagline “He doesn’t know us” (interestingly, though, the DSCC is following the NRSC’s lead here with an ad buy cancellation for the week of the 5th) (UPDATE: Looks like the DS un-cancelled)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt hits Robin Carnahan over the stimulus, pointing out that another member of the extended Carnahan clan got money for his wind farm

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold tries going back to firing up the base, running an ad based on the merits of health care reform

• MI-01: The NRCC weighs in with an ad in the 1st, an endless circle of meta wherein Dan Benishek attacks Gary McDowell for attacking

• WI-07: Julie Lassa goes back to the theme of Sean Duffy having prematurely abandoned his day job as DA to run for the House

• AJS: Americans for Job Security tries again in VA-09 (remember that’s where their previous ad got bounced for being too egregious), as well as in CO-03 and NY-24

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 51%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 37%, Charles Grassley (R-inc) 55%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 42%, Ron Johnson 54%

Last week, when we made a large round of changes to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings, we promised a second round after we’d ironed out some disagreements, and here it is. There are also some additions, though, that are based on late-breaking polling information, so again it’s a pretty big list.

• AK-Sen: Safe R to Tossup *
• FL-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
• IA-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
• NC-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• NH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
• NY-Sen-B: Safe D to Likely D
• WV-Sen: Lean D to Tossup

• NY-Gov: Safe D to Likely D

• CA-20: Safe D to Likely D
• FL-22: Lean D to Tossup
• FL-25: Lean R to Tossup
• GA-02: Likely D to Lean D
• IA-02: Safe D to Lean D
• IN-08: Tossup to Lean R
• MI-01: Tossup to Lean R
• NC-07: Likely D to Lean D
• NJ-06: Safe D to Likely D
• NM-03: Safe D to Likely D
• NY-13: Likely D to Lean D
• OH-09: Safe D to Likely D
• OH-13: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-10: Lean D to Tossup
• TN-08: Tossup to Lean R
• TX-23: Lean D to Tossup
• WI-07: Tossup to Lean R
• WI-08: Lean D to Tossup

25 of these changes favor Republicans; 1 race (the open seat in FL-25) has moved in the Democratic direction.

You might be wondering about the asterisk in Alaska, which even though it just shot up to “Tossup,” we aren’t really considering a move in the Dems’ direction. That’s just to remind everyone that “Tossup” doesn’t necessarily reflect the Dem candidate’s odds in this race; right now, the “Tossup” is more between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski, with Scott McAdams the wild card.

Ivan Moore Research (9/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Scott McAdams (D): 28

Joe Miller (R): 43

Frederick Haase (L): 2

Lisa Murkowski (volunteered): 18

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.1%)

We saw two polls yesterday finding Lisa Murkowski either winning or in a dead heat, but those polls made no mention of Murkowski’s unusual status as a write-in candidate, which should be viewed as a methodological problem. But now we have the first poll that seems to deal head-on with the write-in problem, and as an added bonus, it’s Ivan Moore, probably Alaska’s best-regarded local pollster. The result shows that Joe Miller might want to stop measuring the drapes.

Stay the same: 55

Write in Lisa Murkowski: 31

Not sure: 15

Scott McAdams (D): 14

Joe Miller (R): 36

Frederick Haase (L): 2

Lisa Murkowski (WI): 44

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4.1%)

So here’s what Moore did: his first round of questioning omitted Murkowski but permitted respondents to volunteer her; then he asked, as a follow up question “As you may know, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate stay the same or would you write in Lisa Murkowski?” The second set of results are then re-computed based on prompted Lisa Murkowski votes. That still may not re-create the actual voting experience, where there isn’t a voice reminding you that Lisa Murkowski is running. But this still seems an improvement from just listing her with the other candidates.

Here’s Moore, with some circumspect analysis of what he tried:

Now, the reality of the situation is that neither of these results is going to be correct. The first should be perceived as a minimum for Lisa, the latter a maximum. The reality lies somewhere in between… the question is where? Personally, I think the second measure is what will happen in an ideal, impediment-less world, and should be adjusted downwards by what we’d reasonably expect the attritional effects of the write-in to be. I have always maintained these will be relatively minimal, maybe not much more than a few percent of people who somehow remain unaware come election day that Lisa is an option, or get her name wrong, or don’t fill in the oval, or decide they can’t be bothered to write a name.”

There are also results from the (comparatively uneventful) gubernatorial and House races.

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 35

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 53

Other: 6

Undecided: 6

Harry Crawford (D): 32

Don Young (R-inc): 65

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Was Joe Miller’s Twitter account hacked, or is he really this astoundingly arrogant?

The Mudflats, linked above, has even more. Just wow.

Recall that Miller was previously heard openly speculating about what committees he’d like to serve on. And, of course, this wasn’t the first time that Miller was apparently caught tweeting something that he shouldn’t have – before deleting it.

Minnesota Public Radio/Hubert Humphrey Institute (9/22-26, likely voters, 8/25-29 in parentheses):

Mark Dayton (D): 38 (34)

Tom Emmer (R): 27 (34)

Tom Horner (I): 16 (13)

Undecided: 20 (19)

(MoE: ±5.1%)

The Minnesota gubernatorial race seemed to take a dangerous dip a few weeks ago, with very close polls from MPR, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen. The last few days, though, have seen a 9-point Mark Dayton lead in a Star Tribune poll and now an even bigger lead in a reprise from MPR.

I’m not sure what caused that momentary swoon (and its seemingly abrupt end), but I can diagnose what Tom Emmer’s problem is: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who seems to give moderate GOPers an escape hatch from the Palin-backed knuckle-dragger Emmer. 22% of Republicans are opting for Horner, while only 10% of Democrats are.

Critical Insights for Maine News Today (9/27, likely voters, 9/13 in parentheses):

Libby Mitchell (D): 30 (25)

Paul LePage (R): 29 (38)

Eliot Cutler (I): 9 (11)

Shawn Moody (I): 5 (4)

Kevin Scott (I): 0 (1)

Undecided: 26 (21)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Last we heard from Paul LePage, he was busy letting us know he’d tell Barack Obama to go to hell, and before that, he was having a televised freakout on Sept. 14 when reporters pushed him about a sketchy homestead exemption for his wife. We had an inkling that all these shenanigans were starting to take a toll on LePage with a Libby Mitchell internal from last week showing her down 4 but more importantly showing LePage’s faves dropping from 33/19 to 38/36 since July… but dang, that’s a dramatic reversal of fortune in this race that seemed DOA for the Dems.

The massive flight of voters from LePage’s camp got split two ways: half to Mitchell, half to undecided, so anything’s still possible depending on what those undecideds do. I’m surprised that none gravitated toward Eliot Cutler, who had been touted as not just a spoiler but a possible victor. I’d initially expected Cutler to draw mostly on moderate GOPers unable to deal with the teabagging LePage, but he has seemed to draw on moderate Democrats instead. Now that LePage’s true colors seem to have finally been revealed, it’ll be interesting to see if Cutler starts gaining ground, or if he starts getting viewed primarily as spoiler and dwindles down into single-digit Chris Daggett-style territory.

Suffolk (9/24-27, registered voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 40

Pat Toomey (R): 45

Dan Onorato (D): 40

Tom Corbett (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Suffolk (who, as they don’t hesitate to point out themselves, was the closest pollster to nailing the scope of Joe Sestak’s primary victory over Arlen Specter) has an interesting methodological variation: they do a likely-voter oversample of Erie County, which they consider the state’s best bellwether, and it’s much closer, with Toomey leading 42-41 and Corbett leading 43-42.

Franklin & Marshall (9/20-26, likely voters, 8/16-23 in parentheses):

Joe Sestak (D): 29 (31)

Pat Toomey (R): 38 (40)

Undecided: 32 (26)

Dan Onorato (D): 32 (27)

Tom Corbett (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 38 (31)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Franklin & Marshall, as is their usual style, has a buttload of undecideds. With a registered voter model, there’s even more: among RVs, Toomey leads the Senate race 32-29, and Corbett leads the Governor’s race 33-30. (Interestingly, that means there’s a lot of enthusiasm gap at work in the Senate race, but almost none in the gubernatorial.)

Muhlenberg for Allentown Morning Call (9/18-23, likely voters, 4/5-7 in parentheses):

Joe Sestak (D): 39 (22)

Pat Toomey (R): 46 (33)

Undecided: 14 (34)

Dan Onorato (D): 37 (18)

Tom Corbett (R): 46 (42)

Undecided: 17 (40)

(MoE: ±5%)

Magellan (9/21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 41

Pat Toomey (R): 49

Undecided: 8

Dan Onorato (D): 38

Tom Corbett (R): 50

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Just a little caveat: Magellan has previously done micro-targeting work for the Toomey campaign.

Susquehanna for Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Onorato (D): 40

Tom Corbett (R): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Putting all these polls together, we see, well, pretty much what we already knew: that Pat Toomey’s leading Joe Sestak in a narrow, consistent band in the high single digits. (Suffolk comes within 5, but they’re still using a registered voter model here.) There’s a little more variation in the gubernatorial race results, with Tom Corbett’s lead ranging from 4 to 12, but averaging out to basically the same thing: high single digits too.

Fundraising: Today is the last day of the fundraising quarter, so now is a good time to donate to any Dems you like out there. Decisions on whom to help will be made in the final weeks of the election season based in part on who shows fundraising strength in this final quarter.

AK-Sen: It’s not small – no no no. Republican Joe Miller has failed to file a personal finance disclosure with the Senate, something any candidate who raises or spends more than $5,000 is required to do within 30 days by law. Miller’s been out of compliance with the law since at least April. The penalty? Up to $50,000. Politico caught up with Miller at a fancy DC fundraiser, but he refused to answer any questions about the issue.

Meanwhile, Dem Scott McAdams sends out a fundraising ask via email in response to word that the Tea Party Express will be pouring resources into the state to finish the job they started. McAdams reminds us of something we’ve been saying all along: “In some Alaskan towns it costs only $30 to run a radio ad and $200 for a TV spot.” So if you still have some spare change to give, he still needs your help – and it will indeed make a difference, no matter how much you can afford to give.

PA-Sen, PA-07, PA-08: VoteVets is launching a half-million dollar canvassing effort on behalf of Joe Sestak, who of course is one of them. They’ll also be helping out another pair of veterans, Bryan Lentz and Patrick Murphy.

FL-Gov: Man, dejected gubernatorial loser Bill McCollum is serving up the cat fud personally, on a fucking silver platter. Rick Scott’s been hitting Alex Sink on the airwaves over her alleged mismanagement of the state’s investments while serving as Chief Financial Officer. But at a recent public meeting of the board of trustees of Florida’s pension funds, McCollum made sure to repeatedly question a top administrator about the soundness of the funds – and was assured they were. It’s like he’s fact-checking and doing p.r. for Sink all at once! Someone hire this guy!

NY-Gov: Here’s something that’s no surprise: Carl Paladino was awarded the Conservative Party’s ballot line. Here’s something else that’s no surprise: He’s a motherfucking spazz who can’t control his temper – even around reporters, even on camera. The video is fuzzy and the sound quality poor, but watch Paladino get into it with conservative New York Post political columnist Fred Dicker. The most amusing thing is that Paladino seems to think Dicker, who, uh, as I said, works for the Post, is a Cuomo plant.

AL-05: This parsing almost reaches Clintonian levels: Dem Steve Raby has been hammering Mo Brooks for opposing earmarks, thanks to some teabagger pledge that Brooks signed. This is not a popular position in Alabama, and Brooks had his name removed from the group’s website – but claimed he was only opposing pork, not earmarks. Someone buy this poor fucker a thesaurus, stat!

AZ-05: Harry Mitchell’s got a poll out from Bennett, Petts & Normington, showing him up 43-40 over David Schweikert.

LA-03: In the very last primary of the year, coming up this Saturday, a survey by a robopollster called ElectPoll shows Jeff Landry crushing fellow Republican Hunt Downer, 66-34. Can’t say I’m too surprised, given that Landry missed avoiding a runoff by less than 200 votes. I doubt Downer made the right choice by continuing the fight. Meanwhile, Ravi Sangisetty becomes the latest anti-Pelosi Dem, saying he wouldn’t vote to keep her as Speaker of the House. Somehow I doubt he’ll have the chance to vote on that issue one way or another.

NM-01: So classic – another anti-government spending Republican who has embraced government spending for himself. It’s really no different than the teabaggers who declare “Hands off my Medicare!” Anyhow, Jon Barela is the latest offender. His film production company has received cash assistance from taxpayers thanks to a special New Mexico rebate program designed to encourage movie-making in the state.

NY-20: Always gotta be careful not to read too much into stories about staff departures, but this is awfully late in the game to be losing your campaign manager – which just happened to Republican Chris Gibson. One red flag: That they didn’t have someone lined up to replace Patrick Ziegler, who was supposedly recruited by the RNC to help with broader election efforts in the Hudson Valley. Another: Ziegler had almost no political experience and apparently was overwhelmed by the job. And finally: Ziegler himself has sought the GOP nomination, but dropped out of the race in March. A week later, he was hired by none other than Gibson. So perhaps this was not quite a match made in heaven in the first place.

OH-18: SEIU is sending out a mailer attacking Dem Zack Space, who flip-flopped and voted against healthcare reform in the end. No word on how much they’re spending, though it seems to me that this fight really should have happened during the primaries. I mean, would they really prefer Bob Gibbs?

PA-06: A nice get for Manan Trivedi: He secured the endorsement of the Sierra Club, one of those groups which likes to back “moderate” Republicans to bolster their supposed bi-partisan cred. While they haven’t backed Jim Gerlach in recent years, they haven’t supported his opponents, either, so it’s good to see them take the right side this time.

VA-02: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, typically friend to Republicans the world over, endorsed Democrat Glenn Nye. Somehow I don’t think it’ll stop the attacks that he’s a libruhl who votes with Nancy Pelosi 743% of the time.

NRSC: Aaron Blake says Tom Coburn’s going to give $1 million to the NRSC.

NRCC: Meanwhile, John Boehner just gave $1 million more to the NRCC, and supposedly succeeded in getting $4 million more in pledges from his buddies.

NRA: We are most definitively done with the NRA whip count, which got boring long ago. If you really want to keep checking up on it, keep this link handy.

SSP TV:

• AR-02: Dem Joyce Elliott touts her non-DC background as a teacher, and links herself to still-popular Gov. Mike Beebe
• NC-02: Renee Ellmers accuses Bob Etheridge of cutting half a trillion from Medicare to pay for “Obamacare”
• NM-02: Harry Teague attacks Steve Pearce for being pro-shipping-jobs-to-India
• SC-02: Rob Miller’s campaign asks people how they know Rep. Joe Wilson has “gone Washington,” but apparently folks need the help of a poster to answer

It’s all over now, baby blue:

Longtime Republican congressman Mike Castle has ruled out a write-in campaign in the U.S. Senate race in Delaware.

Castle is also a former two-term governor and the longest serving congressman in state history. He lost the GOP primary earlier this month in a stunning upset to tea party favorite Christine O’Donnell.

He issued a statement Wednesday night saying he had ruled out a write-in campaign, which many supporters had asked him to consider.

Still, of course, no O’Donnell endorsement.

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/24-28, likely voters, no trend lines):

Scott McAdams (D): 22

Joe Miller (R): 38

Lisa Murkowski (I): 36

(MoE: ±3%)

Craciun Research for the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (9/24-25, likely voters, no trend lines):

Scott McAdams (D): 19

Joe Miller (R): 30

Lisa Murkowski (I): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Nate Silver, however, hits on some problems with the methodologies of both polls:

The issue with each of these polls, however, is that they made no particular accommodation to account for the fact that Ms. Murkowski will be a write-in candidate, as her name was mentioned alongside Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams.

Indeed, and as Nate later tweeted, perhaps the best approach that pollsters should take would be to ask voters if they’re voting for McAdams, Miller, or a write-in. That would then be followed by a prompt to ask who they’re writing in (rather than offering Murkowski as a choice). However, this methodology would be difficult for a robo-pollster to accommodate (though it shouldn’t be too hard for Opinion Research or Craciun, who use live interviewers). After all, the way these pollsters are framing the choice doesn’t reflect the realities of the ballot.

It’s also worth noting that Scott McAdams only went up on the air last night for the first time, so add that as another reason why these polls may represent something of a high-water mark for Murkowski that she is unlikely to obtain in November.

Meanwhile, CNN/Time also polled the gubernatorial race…

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 57

(MoE: ±3%)

Interestingly, Berkowitz’s margin is actually slightly worse among registered voters (at 58-36). The guy is tenacious, but this looks pretty tough.