Month: March 2010

Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, Alabama voters, no trend lines):

Artur Davis (D): 32

Bradley Byrne (R): 48

Ron Sparks (D): 30

Bradley Byrne (R): 43

Artur Davis (D): 33

Tim James (R): 42

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Tim James (R): 38

Artur Davis (D): 37

Roy Moore (R): 43

Ron Sparks (D): 37

Roy Moore (R): 42

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Also included in the poll was state Treasurer Kay Ivey, who announced today that she’ll be switching races to the less-crowded Lt. Governor’s race. Ivey leads Davis by 44-33 and Sparks by 39-33.

In every permutation of this race tested by PPP, a greater share of Democrats are undecided compared to Republicans — especially in the match-ups against Byrne, where twice as many Democrats are undecided. Even if most of those voters come home, Democrats will need some lucky breaks in order to win here… breaks such as a Roy Moore primary win, for instance.

So a new pollster, We Ask America, has been running some gaudy numbers for Republican candidates and issues.  They released a slew of Illinois House polls with the following results:

IL-08 – Walsh (R) 38, Bean (D) 38

IL-10 – Seals (D) 40, Dold (R) 37

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 42, Halvorson (D) 30

IL-14 – Hultgren (R) 38, Foster (D) 36

IL-17 – Hare (D) 39, Schilling (R) 32

So here’s the rub.  We Ask America has Obama approval at 47-50 … IN ILLINOIS!!!

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0…

Rasmussen had Obama approval in Illinois at 56-44 on March 10, just one day before We Ask America’s 47-50 finding.  The pollster.com average NATIONWIDE is 48-48.  Illinois was 20 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2008, so if we crudely extrapolate that, we get 58-38 Obama approval in Illinois.

But let’s take Rasmussen’s 56-44 approval rating, which is 15 POINTS better than We Ask America’s 47-50 in Illinois, and (again crudely) reconfigure the We Ask America polls:

IL-08 – Bean (D) 46, Walsh (R) 31

IL-10 – Seals (D) 48, Dold (R) 30

IL-11 – Halvorson (D) 38, Kinzinger (R) 35

IL-14 – Foster (D) 44, Hultgren (R) 31

IL-17 – Hare (D) 47, Schilling (R) 25

Seems more realistic to me given the probable differences in name recognition.  IL-11 is a close race, and the others are competitive – incumbents (and Seals who has run twice before) below 50%, with the challengers needing to play catchup in the name recongition department.

Kinzinger is an impressive candidate, and it would not surprise me if he is polling close with Halvorson.  But up 12?  Halvorson won an open seat by 20+% in 2008 and has represented a largely overlapping State Senate district for years.

If you look on the We Ask America website, they are also running some daunting healthcare numbers for members who voted yes, with roughly 60% or more of people in swing districts being more likely to vote against the incumbent for the “yes” vote.  I would love to know We Ask America’s Obama approval numbers in those districts.

I am not writing to disparage We Ask America.  I know nothing about them.  I have expressed my concerns about Rasmussen before, but I am even more concerned about new pollsters coming out of the woodwork and creating favorable narratives for one party.  I am reminded of the gaudy numbers for Scott Brown from Pajamas Media and Merriman River Group during his election, not to necessarily disparage either of those outfits either.  I just cannot remember this phenomenon happening in previous cycles.  In previous cycles, we seemed to get fairly consistent and credible polling information from a narrow group of seemingly reliable pollsters.

Something feels wrong here.  Certainly, polling seems very different and more partisan than it ever has before.  I hope that people with more expertise and bigger soapboxes than me will continue to vet these pollsters carefully and call them out if something is amiss.  

What I do know is that Obama at 47-50 approval in Illinois is embarrassingly inconsistent with all of the other information out there.  It would probably put Obama’s nationwide approval into the 30’s.  Things are tough for the Democrats, but they’re not that tough.

UPDATE: So I did some research on the identity of We Ask America.  Its website only discloses that it is a division of “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.”  But it does not tell the reader what exactly that means, which turns out to be quite significant.

Xpress Professional Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association, which is an anti-union, anti-tax, and anti-Health Care Reform industry advocacy organization.  

Its CEO is Greg Baise, who was a 1990 Republican candidate for Treasurer, losing to Pat Quinn by 11%.  He is also Treasurer of the Economic Freedom Alliance, which has targeted Democrat Bill Foster with advertising labeling him as a “job killer” for his support of card check legislation.

Its COO is Gregg Durham, a former spokesman for the Illinois Republican House Caucus and Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.  

The bottom line is that this is a partisan Republican pollster and an arm of the pro-business Illinois Manufacturer’s Association.  There is nothing wrong with being a Republican pollster or being an arm of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association.  However, there is something wrong with the half-ass disclosure on the website of an affiliation with “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.,” which could be anything, instead of a full disclosure of the direct link to the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association and its Republican principals.

Here are two local Illinois news articles on We Ask America’s ties:

http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x…

http://www.suburbanchicagonews…

The Democratic primary for Scott Brown’s former Massachusetts State Senate seat is just 13 days away, on Tuesday, April 13th.

Two strong candidates are facing off for the nomination.

-Needham Town Meeting member Dr. Peter Smulowitz

http://petersmulowitz.com

and

-Needham, Dover and Medfield State Representative Lida Harkins

http://www.lidaharkins.com

Over the last few months, the race for the Democratic nomination, which many had expected to be a cakewalk for Harkins, has turned into an almost toss-up due to unexpectedly strong fundraising by Smulowitz and the strong grassroots campaign he has put together. Harkins still has to be considered the slight favorite though, because of her 21 years of service as State Representative to the largest voting town in the District.

So far, Smulowitz has been courting progressive voters and independents (who can vote in the D primary in MA) with his message as a left-leaning, reform-minded outsider who can take on the culture of corruption that permeates Beacon Hill.

Harkins, for her part, has been wooing the traditional Democratic constituencies like organized labor, and has gained a number of high-profile endorsements from unions and women’s groups.

The biggest issues thus far in the campaign have been the candidate’s differing positions on the issue of bringing legalized gambling to Massachusetts in the form of numerous resort-style casinos (Harkins is in favor, Smulowitz opposes), and Harkins’ history as a member of the House leadership on Beacon Hill where three consecutive speakers have been indicted on Federal charges.

Waiting in the wings for whoever emerges from the Democratic primary is State Rep. Richard Ross, R-Wrentham.

http://www.voteross.org/

Ross has to be seen as the favorite in this Republican-leaning District, although the fact that Scott Brown’s predecessor as State Senator was a liberal, openly lesbian Democrat has to give the Democrats some hope.

Campaign finance reports must be filed with the State by the end of business on April 5th (Monday), so at that time we will have a little more information available to see which campaigns are humming along and which are sputtering.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic Primary here, expect to see the State Parties and perhaps even national organizations get involved here. This seat has a symbolic value for both parties that can’t be underestimated.

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of House race ratings for the 2010 election cycle:

You can also check out our House Vulnerability Index. We welcome your thoughts in comments.

Safe R:

     LA-03 (OPEN)

     NY-29 (OPEN)

     TN-06 (OPEN)

Last Updated: Nov. 2, 2010 at 8:15 AM

Previous Ratings

Quinnipiac (3/23-29, registered voters, 2/16-21 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (37)

Rob Portman (R): 37 (40)

Undecided: 21 (21)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (35)

Rob Portman (R): 37 (40)

Undecided: 23 (23)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (44)

John Kasich (R): 38 (39)

Undecided: 15 (15)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Compared to many of the other offerings we’ve seen out of Ohio lately, this poll contains some pretty welcome news. Still, it’s worth keeping in mind that Quinnipiac has had one of the friendlier records for Democrats in the gubernatorial race, probably due to the fact that Quinnipiac does not screen for likely voters.

Still, there’s good news to be found here for sure: Obama’s job approval has improved from 44-52 in February to 47-48 today, and the favorability of healthcare reform has shot up to 43-50 from 36-55. Those are the kinds of numbers that Democrats will need to see stabilized in order to have a shot in the Senate race.

IL-Sen: Have I mentioned lately that Mark Kirk is an utter wiener? No? Well, Mark Kirk is an utterly predictable wiener. After charging gung-ho in the direction of “Repeal!”, Kirk has decided to quickly drop his push to roll back healthcare reform, preferring instead to remind everyone how expensive it is.

NV-Sen: Here’s some bitter tea for fans of right-wing vote-splitting. It appears that Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian is facing criminal charges for theft relating to bad checks he allegedly wrote for his asphalt business. Ashjian won’t have to withdraw his candidacy if arrested, but headlines like these can’t help him syphon off any substantial amount of votes from the GOP’s flank.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter landed a huge endorsement in his primary battle against Joe Sestak yesterday, with the news that the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO has elected to back the five-term incumbent.

TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison will announce her future plans in San Antonio this morning, flanked by Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn. I think it’s probably a safe guess to say that she’s likely going to serve out the remainder of her term, despite her many promises otherwise.

FL-Gov: Republican Bill McCollum leads Democrat Alex Sink by 49-34 according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll of the race.

GA-Gov: 31 douchebags Republican state legislators have signed a resolution calling for the impeachment of Democratic AG Thurbert Baker after his refusal to challenge the constitutionality of the recent healthcare reform legislation. Baker, who has been struggling in the polls for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against ex-Gov. Roy Barnes, is probably enjoying the free publicity, if nothing else.

MA-Gov: State Treasurer Tim Cahill got busted for sending out a mass fundraising solicitation for his Independent gubernatorial bid to state legislators from his official e-mail account, which is a violation of Massachusetts campaign finance rules.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich confirmed on Tuesday that he will attempt a comeback against Democrat Martin O’Malley this year.

AR-01: This one ranks pretty low on the list of unexpected political news. Retiring Democratic Rep. Marion Berry will endorse his former chief of staff, Chad Causey, for the Dem nomination to succeed him. Causey also recently picked up the support of the Arkansas AFL-CIO.

FL-19: At least one of these things may strain your credulity. Republican Ed Lynch, running in the April 13 special election to replace Democrat Robert Wexler in the House, says that his fundraising has seen “probably a thousand percent increase” since Congress passed healthcare reform, and that “polling we’ve done” shows him ahead of Democrat Ted Deutch. Of course, his campaign isn’t coming forward with any evidence of the existence of any such polls.

GA-12: Republican Ray McKinney, a nuclear power project manager who lost the GOP primary in 2008 for the right to take on John Barrow, says that he’s going to try again this year. McKinney joins Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith, retired businessman Mike Horner, activist Jeanne Seaver and restaurant owner George Brady in the GOP primary.

MI-13: Metro Detroit pastor Glenn Plummer, the founder of the African American Christian Television Network, has announced that he’ll challenge Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick in the Democratic primary, joining state Sen. Hansen Clarke for a three-way race. Don’t expect Plummer to be a progressive choice, though: he freely admits that he voted for Bush in 2004, spoke to a GOP convention that same year, and has also used his pulpit to argue in favor of a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Yuck.

MO-03: Rusty Wallace — not the NASCAR champion, but a CAD technician and avid teabagger — will join the highly-touted Ed Martin in the Republican primary for the right to upset Dem Rep. Russ Carnahan.

MO-07: It looks like a couple of high profile candidates have slipped under the wire for the race to fill the seat of Senatorial aspirant Roy Blunt. Ex-state Rep. Steve Hunter will become the ninth GOP candidate in the mix, which some local observers suspect may be a ploy from one of the other candidates to syphon off votes from state Sen. Gary Noodler, who shares Hunter’s regional base. For the Democrats, Scott Eckersley, an attorney who served in ex-Gov. Matt Blunt’s administration, also filed to run for this R+17 seat. Eckersley settled a wrongful termination lawsuit with the state last year after alleging that he was dismissed for raising questions within the administration over the destruction of controversial state e-mails. Eckersley isn’t committed to a run, though, and said he filed in order to keep his options open.

NV-03: Ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) is leading Democratic frosh Rep. Dina Titus by 40-35, according to a new internal poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies for Heck’s campaign.

NY-29: Local Democrats still haven’t settled on a nominee for the special election in this upstate New York district, but at least we now know the names of six of the potential candidates:

The interviewed candidates include Southern Tier native Matthew Zeller, former Allegany County District 4 Legislator Michael McCormick, David Nachbar, a former state Senate candidate and businessman from Pittsford, Rush-Henrietta Central School District teacher David Rose, and Assemblyman David Koon, D-Perinton. Mary Wilmot, an aide to Gov. David Paterson, was the lone women interviewed.

PA-10: I never thought I’d say this, but why can’t we have more Dems like Chris Carney? After harshly criticizing Sarah Palin for putting his House district in literal cross hairs, Carney defended his HCR vote to a local TV station:

“You can’t vote worried about your career, you have to vote the right way,” Carney said. “You have to vote your conscience and for me this was a vote of conscience.”

Remember when the GOP tried to recruit Carney to join their caucus?

SC-05: John Spratt is a true hero. Just a day after filing for re-election in the face of persistent retirement rumors fueled by NRCC schemers and beltway natterers, Spratt has announced that he’s been diagnosed with early stage Parkinson’s disease. Spratt insists that his symptoms are mild and that his condition won’t impede his ability to serve in Congress — or run a vigorous re-election race.

SD-AL: Physician Kevin Weiland has dropped his plans to challenge Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, citing his concern for party unity. Weiland issued a joint press release with Herseth Sandlin announcing the news, and based his decision partly on assurances from Herseth Sandlin that she would not vote to repeal healthcare reform. (Hat-tip: doug tuttle)

TN-06: Democrats have finally found a candidate to run for the seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. Marine Capt. Ben Leming, an Iraq War veteran, received permission from the secretary of the Navy to file his candidacy. However, Leming can’t actively campaign until his active duty ends on May 1st.

WA-01: This seat isn’t on anyone’s radar, but Republican businessman James Watkins recently released an internal poll, conducted by Moore Information, showing him trailing Democrat Jay Inslee by 41-27.

WI-03: Is this what state Sen. Dan Kapanke signed up for when he decided to run for Congress against Democrat Ron Kind? Kapanke jumped into the race with much fanfare in the anticipation that Kind would bail on the race to run for Governor. That didn’t happen, and now Kapanke is facing a primary from ex-banker Bruce Evers, who has some truly wild ideas on constraining government spending.

Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, primary voters):

Artur Davis (D): 38

Ron Sparks (D): 28

Sam Franklin Thomas (D): 9

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bradley Byrne (R): 27

Roy Moore (R): 23

Robert Bently (R): 10

Kay Ivey (R): 10

Tim James (R): 9

Bill Johnson (R): 1

James Potts (R): 0

Charles Taylor (R): 0

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Interestingly, not all is rosy for ArturD2 in the Democratic primary: among primary voters, Davis’ favorable rating is 28-34 compared to 27-17 for Sparks. If Sparks can exploit it, Davis may have opened up a big vulnerability with his vote against healthcare reform: 80% of primary voters surveyed by PPP support the recent bill passed by Congress (compared to 14% opposed). Davis may have gambled that Sparks was incapable of riding the issue to a primary win in favor of keeping a more conservative profile for the general election, but the opportunity certainly is there for Sparks to exploit.

Meanwhile, Roy “The Ten Commandments” Moore may be the most well-known and well-liked among Republican primary voters, but he’s not attracting the most support:

The fact that Moore is the most well known and liked of the GOP candidates but still trails is a sign that many voters like him but don’t necessarily think Governor is the position he’s best suited for.

In a field sliced and diced as widely as this one, though, you never know what may happen.

UPDATE: Hah! Check out PPP’s hilarious response to accusations from the Tim James campaign that PPP was cooking their books:

James put out a press release attacking our Alabama primary poll today because it showed Barack Obama with an 84% approval rating when he only got 40% of the vote in the state in 2008. That would be a valid criticism…except for the fact that the 84% approval rating for Obama was with Democratic primary voters! Reading comprehension is evidently not one of the stronger suits of the James campaign. Nor is making sure it has its facts straight before putting out a press release.

Quinnipiac (3/25-28, likely voters, 2/16-21 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 33 (29)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 26 (20)

Undecided: 40 (48)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

The votes in this race won’t be counted until primary day on May 4th, but early voting begins today, meaning this primary should be in high gear right about now. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has had a small but consistent lead in all of the primary polling we’ve seen of this race (done almost entirely by Quinnipiac, it should be mentioned), but with 40% of voters undecided and 65% of those who are backing a candidate saying they might change their mind, plenty of votes are still up for grabs.

The question, though, is how can Brunner, whose fundraising woes are by this point well-documented, swoop up those undecided and soft Fisher voters? A well-funded campaign might have had the ability to make a real impression right now, which is exactly why Brunner is paying for her months of weak fundraising efforts so dearly today. As it is, she can rely on activist shoe leather to keep Fisher on guard, but snatching the primary win may turn out to be an opportunity that Brunner blew when she couldn’t persuade donors to invest in her campaign.

Tommy, can you hear me?

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Tommy Thompson (R): 44

Undecided: 8

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 52

Terrence Wall (R): 37

Undecided: 11

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 54

Dave Westlake (R): 36

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4%)

These results line up very well with the latest offering from PPP giving Feingold a 3-point edge on Thompson, pushing back a bit further against the recent WPRI and Rasmussen polls that have given T-Squared a slight lead.

Interestingly, in terms of their favorability ratings, R2K is kinder to both Feingold and Thompson; both men have nearly identical favorable scores (53-41 for Feingold and 53-42 for Thompson), whereas PPP had Thompson starting off this hypothetical race struggling to keep his head above water at 40-44 to Feingold’s 45-41.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Sen