Month: November 2006

Taking a page from NC Dem Party chair Jerry Meek’s playbook, I thought we could open up the floor to a discussion of possible recruits for Senate races in each of the twenty-one GOP-held seats that are up for re-election in 2008. We’ll go in alphabetical order, starting with the first five. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, in case you need to get your creative juices flowing, and incumbents are in parens:

1) Alabama  (Jeff Sessions)

2) Alaska (Ted Stevens)

3) Colorado (Wayne Allard)

4) Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)

5) Idaho (Larry Craig)

So whom do you like for challengers to these seats? As Meek said, don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

You never know who might be reading this blog – and cribbing ideas from it!

After failing to pick up enough votes in the early phase of hand recount, Larry Kissell has conceded to Robin Hayes. Kissell’s margin was an excruciating 329 votes out of over 121,000 total cast – not even three-tenths of one percent of the overall vote.

The good news is that Kissell – in an e-mail to supporters – today said that he’s going to run in 2008. (Quick, someone update the wiki!) This is great for a lot of reasons. Kissell got a late start this year because of the abortive candidacy of Tim Dunn. The late start and his perceived “replacement” status made it hard for him to garner support early on. (I should note that MoveOn did back Kissell’s play with some $200K in independent expenditures – clearly a great move.)

But now he can capitalize on his tremendous performance (in a decidedly GOP-leaning district) which he managed all on a shoe-string budget. (Less than half-a-million raised as of the last report – which was nonetheless quite an accomplishment, given the above.) An early start is so important these days – it certainly helped Paul Hodes a great deal. And I’d like to think that some of the bigger players will now get behind Kissell early, too.

We’ll be playing a lot of defense in 2008, but we can’t only play defense. We need to keep the playing field wide open, and that’s exactly what Larry Kissell will be doing.

Partisan ID is a clear sign of how a party is doing because those who Identify with a party vote for its candidates at extremely high rates and do so in almost all races.  These numbers can be a window into the future. If nothing else they show either improvement or declines in states  that is valuable to know. The following is VNS data by State and  Party ID for 06 and 04, followed by a quick comment on what the data could mean for 08

Arizona
06
Democrat 32
Republican 41
Independent 27

04
Democrat 30
Republican 44
Independent 26

Quick Take
Five point trimming is not nothing, Pederson won Independents by 9. Maybe a Target State?

California
Party ID
06
Democrat 41
Republican 35
Independent 25

Democrat 39
Republican 33
Independent 25

Quick Take :Partisan vote more in an off Year. Nothing to see here.  California Blue

Connecticut
06
Democrat 38
Republican 26
Independent  36

04
Democrat 37
Republican 30
Independent 33

Quick Take
Republican id falls, Indies not Dems mostly gain.  CT electorate votes for Team Blue

Florida
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 25

04
Democrat 37
Republican 41
Independent 23

Quick Take, No real change, Florida remains swing of all swing states, like movement in 8th and 13th  to Dems , worry about why Mahoney got  only 49%  The Battle Never stops in Florida.

Hawaii
06
Democrat  40
Republican 23
Independent 37%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 24
Independent 36

Quick Take. Yawn. Dems win Hawaii

Illinois
06
Democrat 46
Republican 31
Independent 23

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Note
Boy did Dems destroy and fast. Those are comically bad numbers for the GOP. Wished we had spent more money on Seals.  08 in bag.

Maine 
06
Democrat 37
Republican 29
Independent 34

04
Democrat 31
Republican 30
Independent  38

Quick Take
As goes Maine so goes the nation, hard to imagine it even makes the target list in the next election.

Maryland
06
Democrat 50
Republican 31
Independent  19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 26

Quick Take,
No wonder Erlich went down. That high turnout in the primary was a great sign. Great Time to be a Maryland Democrat. So yes we in it in 08
Massachusetts
06
Democrat 42
Republican 19
Independent 39

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 44

Quick Take
More Partisans vote in off years. Republicans improved to 19% and  in process ended up with 35%  in the Governor’s race as their high point in any statewide office  and 5 our of 40 State Senate Seats .  I am not sure there is a more dead major party anywhere in the country.  Lets hope Mitt Romney can do for The National Party what he did for the State Party. Dems Win in 08.

Michigan
06
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Take
Two point improvement isn’t nothing. Indies still key, the dueling 56’s out of Stabenow and Granholm, after all the hang wringing [ and  late million bucks from the NRSC] Make me feel very good about Michigan going into 08.
Minnesota
06
Democrat 40
Republican 36
Independent 24

04
Democrat 38
Republican 35
Independent 27

Quick Take
Partisan Vote more in off year. Dems gain a point of ID which is nice.  The Senate Race and Walz and almost the entire under ticket were nicer.  We should be ok in Minnesota but it is clearly still a close state, Senate Race aside.

Missouri  06
Democrat 37
Republican 39
Independent 25

Democrat 35
Republican 36
Independent  29

Quick Take
Indies save day  in Senate Race. Party ID slight for Republicans. Claire won by enough.  with unpopular Governor Blunt to at least put it on target list at outset.

Montana
06
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

04
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

Quick Take
No Movement in Partisan ID despite Beloved Governor, he won’t be able to carry Dem Pres Candidate. Montana is a Red State at least another Cycle. Tester is awesome.

Nebraska
06
Democrat 27
Republican 50
Independent 23

04
Democrat 24
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
Great Improvement though clearly not enough to change much.  Theses things take time.  Nebraska for whoever the Republicans nominate
Nevada
06
Democrat 33
Republican 40
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26

Quick Take
Rare back sliding in critical battle ground state, also explains high profile loses, including two house seats and governorship. Why are Colorado-Arizona, doing well while Nevada struggles? Still has to be a pick off target for 08.

New Jersey
06
Democrat 41
Republican 28
Independent 31

04
Democrat 39
Republican 31
Independent 30

Quick Take
Nice Five point bump, sealed deal in Senate race.  Dem Partisans also extremely loyal to Dem nominee,allows for slight loss with Indies. Do they really want to try to pick up a Dem held Senate  Seat in New Jersey?  Win in 08

New Mexico
06
Democrat  41
Republican 32
Independent 27%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

Quick Take
Slight Dem increase encouraging,  given extreme close nature of last two Presidential Elections there.  Senate Race also interesting.
New York
06
Democrat 47
Republican 25
Independent 27

04
Democrat 45
Republican 29
Independent 26

Quick Note
Only real news is the NY Republicans are not quite as dead as Massachusetts
Republicans Dems win Presidential vote here.

North Dakota
06
Democrat 29
Republican 38
Independent 33

04
Democrat 27
Republican 41%
Independent 32

Quick Take
Improvement is good, hard to see races it will matter in near future, given Dems already hold whole Congressional Delegation.  Red in 08

Ohio
06
Democrat 40
Republican 37
Independent  23

04
Democrat 35
Republican 40
Independent 25

Quick Take
Awesome  Numbers, Given Kerry Win with Ohio Indies, means Dems have inside track at 08 Electoral College votes.

Pennsylvania
06
Democrat 43
Republican 38
Independent 19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 39
Independent 20

Quick Take
Very good encouraging Numbers, will Republicans want to Contest in Pennsylvania?  Can Rendell-Casey be stopped?  Does Jim Gerlach have a way to riggle out again, tune in next cycle for, As Pennsylvania turns.

Rhode Island
06
Democrat 38
Republican 18
Independent 44

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 45

Quick Take
Probably just noise, in the Party ID numbers, and a party at 18 isn’t going to scary me, though it may have saved their Republican Governor. Rhode Island is blue in 08

Tennessee
06
Democrat 34
Republican 38
Independent 28

04
Democrat 32
Republican 40
Independent 28

Quick Take
Shame it didn’t push Ford across finishing line, but those numbers with our Governor’s 69 means their may still be hope for Tennessee

Texas
06
Democrat 31
Republican 41
Independent 28

Democrat 32
Republican 43
Independent 24

Quick Take
Doesn’t Change much. Texas is Red State. Is Senator Croyn as hated as Perry, can we get only challenger please.

Utah
06
Democrat 20
Republican 56
Independent 24

04
Democrat 19
Republican 58
Independent 24

Quick Take
It is Utah. 

Vermont
06
Democrat 29
Republican 27
Independent 44

04
Democrat 31
Republican 27
Independent  41

Quick Take
Vermont’s Indies voted 74% for Bernie Sanders and 67% for John Kerry, so honestly Vermont loves us. Dems in 08

Virginia
06 
Democrat  36
Republican  39
Independent  26

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent  26

Quick Take
No real movement. Virginia Independents were all decisive in 04 and 06 races, do they hold key to Presidency?  Too tempting a target not to try.
Washington
06
Democrat 39
Republican 29
Independent 32

04
Democrat 36
Republican 32
Independent 33

Quick Take
Maybe Washington will find its way off targets list now, look its George Nethercutt, I am scared.

West Virginia
06
Democrat  51
Republican 32
Independent 16

04
Democrat 50
Republican 32
Independent 18

Quick Take
No real change, will Dems return home  30% voted for Bush in 04. Probably Red in 08 but needs to be watched.

Wisconsin
06
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 38
Independent  27

Quick Take
Second only in greatness to Ohio, these are great numbers that give Dems  a great shot at Wisconsin in 08

Wyoming
06
Democrat 27
Republican 56
Independent 17

04
Democrat 25
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
How does this state have a Dem Governor and almost elect a Democrat to Congress. This proves not even Utah should be over looked.

Four States I wish I had data for
Colorado Arkansas New Hampshire and Iowa

It ain’t the prettiest commercial in the world, but it’s a good sign that Democrat Ciro Rodriguez may have a shot in the upcoming (December 12) special election in Texas’ 23rd.  Why?  Because from what I’ve heard, the DCCC commissioned an independent poll last week that would determine how heavily involved they would be on Ciro’s behalf.  The poll must have shown promising results, because otherwise the DCCC would have been a lot more low key about this race.

If you want to help expand the Democratic House Majority, there is an online phonebank that you can use to help Ciro and the DCCC get out the Democratic vote in TX-23.  If you habla español, your efforts would be even more valuable here.

(A very thorough–and very good–post-mortem from a longtime SSPer. – promoted by James L.)

I wrote this diary on Daily Kos a couple of days ago and that it would be equally appropriate here.  I realize it comes nearly three weeks later than most election post-mortems, but nearly all of my free time in the past 20 days has been dedicated to the digestion of as many election returns as possible, particularly in my home state of Minnesota where my knowledge is most prolific.  It was a very good year for Democrats in the state of Minnesota and I will document all the statewide and Congressional races of note, beginning with the two hotly-contested House races and then moving the statewide races.

I had a feeling in the closing weeks of the campaign that Democrat Tim Walz would pull off a victory in what only a few months earlier seemed like a kamikaze run against six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht, but I didn’t think he’d win by a solid six-point margin.  Considering Gutknecht’s mid-summer radio ad buys, I don’t necessarily think that Gutknecht was unable to see this challenge coming.  Nonetheless, his response to the challenge was absolutely abysmal, with boilerplate TV ads where the incumbent couldn’t even be bothered to make an appearance in his own commercials and a series of mismatched debate performances where Gutknecht was very clearly on defense at all times and losing badly to the charismatic Walz. 

I wrote a diary in September on how Tim Walz could eke out a victory in MN-01 with huge margins in his native Mankato and the college town of Winona, along with fighting Gutknecht to a draw in his native Rochester.  In the end, Walz won by huger margins that I would have deemed possible in Mankato and Winona, but also managed to win Rochester by an astounding eight percentage points.  Walz outperformed my expectations pretty much everywhere, padding his margin with wins in a few of the more conservative southwestern farm counties.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walz holds up in 2008 and (hopefully) subsequent election cycles.  The one thing that concerns me is that Walz’s presence on the campaign trail is his chief asset….and that presence will not be as abundant if he’s stuck legislating in DC rather than travelling the district full-time as he did in 2005 and 2006.  Nonetheless, an excellent win for Walz, who I saw speak on two occasions and evoked a level of passion that I haven’t seen since Paul Wellstone.  Keep an eye on this guy.  Big things could be coming from him.

As for MN-06, a number of things went wrong and helped voters in this conservative district fall into the arms of wingnut Republican Michelle Bachmann even though I predicted last summer that Bachmann was too conservative even for MN-06.  Since Bachmann got 50%, it’s not fair to say that center-left Independence Party candidate John Binkowski cost Wetterling the election, but it would have probably at least been close without him in the race.  Nonetheless, far too many things went wrong in this race for Binkowski to shoulder the blame.

Wetterling hemmed and hawed for months, stating at one point that she couldn’t win in this district and then pursued a Senate run.  When it was clear she wouldn’t get the nomination against Amy Klobuchar, Wetterling made an eleventh hour leap into this House race, breaking her word against a moderate Democrat El Tinklenberg who, in hind sight, would have probably been a much better candidate against Bachmann.  Bachmann’s reputation as the Legislature’s wingnut-in-chief helped Wetterling pull off a small lead in September polls, but that’s when the bottom fell out of her campaign. 

The polished Bachmann always mopped the floor up with the political novice Wetterling in debates and public forums and managed to mask her nutball tendencies to the voting public, all while the Wetterling campaign failed to effectively define her opponent.  In the end, some controversial ads by the Wetterling campaign (which I never saw) were heavily scrutinized by the local media and by the final week of the campaign, my dad was hearing from campaign insiders that Wetterling was toast. 

In retrospect, Wetterling’s respectable performance in 2004 was the product of running against Mark Kennedy and having him step into the trap of swiftboating a figure as sympathetic as Wetterling.  Without Kennedy making her look good by comparison this time around, Wetterling’s flaws were more easily apparent.  I’m expecting that Bachmann will make a regular habit of embarrassing Minnesota on the national stage, and could find herself perennially vulnerable in her district.  Here’s hoping the Dems give El Tinklenberg another shot in 2008.

(Click Read More for additional commentary.)

Regarding the statewide races, I start out with egg on my face over my early predictions of a close Senate race.  As recently as six months ago, I ascribed to the conventional wisdom that Mark Kennedy would be a formidable Republican candidate and that the Minnesota Senate race would be close.  Considering Klobuchar’s home base of Hennepin County and familial ties to the Iron Range was being pitted up against Kennedy, the golden boy of outer suburbia, I spun this as a classic Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota grudge match (which we ended up getting in the state’s gubernatorial election which I’ll get to later) that really excited me as an aficianado of Minnesota politics.

But what we ended up with excited me oh so much more.  How could I have possibly predicted that Mark Kennedy would put forth the lamest Minnesota Senate campaign since Democrat Ann Wynia in 1994?  Even in my wildest dreams, I could not have envisioned Amy Klobuchar riding out a 21-point landslide.  Her success touched nearly every nook and cranny of the state.  She won 79 of Minnesota’s 87 counties, as opposed to John Kerry who won 24 in 2004, and even Bill Clinton who scored what seemed like an insurmountable Democratic record of 76 counties back in 1996.  Klobuchar eked out narrow wins in some stalwart GOP counties such as the German-American settled Republican bastions of McLeod County (Hutchinson) and Brown County (New Ulm), counties that I never expected would be won by a Democrat in a statewide election in my lifetime. 

Kennedy even performed miserably in outer suburbia, winning only two of the six counties in his Congressional district, and by paltry margins of less than three points each at that.  In the end, the combination of the anti-Republican tide and Kennedy’s astounding weakness make me think even the hapless incumbent Senator Mark Dayton could have beaten Kennedy, but I’m thankful to Amy Klobuchar for not making me sweat out that prophesy.

It’s hard to say whether Klobuchar had coattails or whether the DFL mood of the electorate transcended her, but either way, Democratic candidates vastly exceeded expectations across the ballot in Minnesota.  In the back of my mind, I considered incumbent Republican Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer to be beatable, but I also believed that the inclination of center-left voters in Minnesota to cast their ballot third-party in low-profile races would likely drag Kiffmeyer across the finish line once again.

If DFL candidate Mark Ritchie was going to take out Kiffmeyer, with her built-in advantages in the St. Cloud area where she always scores huge margins, I figured it would be by the skin of his teeth.  Once again, I was wrong.  Ritchie beat Kiffmeyer by a convincing five points, winning big in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, where third-party candidate strength derailed Buck Humphrey’s chances in 2002, but also fighting Kiffmeyer to a near tie in the three main suburban counties (Anoka, Dakota, and Washington).  If you’re a Republican winning Dakota County by less than one percentage point, you will not win statewide.  Such was the case with Kiffmeyer.  And good riddance!

A Minnesota Poll from September showing DFL Attorney General candidate Lori Swanson with a nearly 20-point lead should have clued me in to how powerful not being a Republican was going to be in Minnesota this election cycle.  In some sense it did, as even though the Minnesota Poll always oversamples Democrats, the margin Swanson was polling against Republican challenger Jeff Johnson helped me breathe a sigh of relief that we would hold that office.  Nonetheless, I was surprised by the blistering margin of 13 points that Swanson won by, scoring victories throughout the state and winning 65 Minnesota counties compared to Johnson’s 22.

A much bigger shocker was the State Auditor race where I found it hard to believe an incumbent with the surname Anderson in Scandinavian-heavy Minnesota could lose to a challenger named Otto in a low-profile down-ballot race.  But much to my surprise, Democrat Otto smashed Anderson almost as strongly as Swanson did Johnson in the Attorney General’s race, winning by 11 points and winning 56 out of the 87 counties.  Anderson even got trounced in her home county (Dakota), which is a suburban enclave where she won by 16 points in 2002.

Just as stunning were the tremendous gains the DFL made in the Legislature, notwithstanding the sad defeat of Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson in his increasingly conservative central Minnesota district (unfortunately, I could see Johnson’s defeat coming more than a year ago).  Nonetheless, the breadth of DFL gains throughout the state was breathtaking and the list of Republican casualties jaw-dropping.  Phil Krinkie in Lino Lakes.  Gone!  Brian LeClair in Woodbury.  Outta there!  Carrie Ruud in Bemidji.  Good to know ya! The DFL picked up even more legislative seats in Rochester and somehow managed to pick up a Senate seat in freakin’ Fergus Falls, perhaps the deepest red redoubt of outstate conservatism.  The DFL now has nearly 2-1 supermajorities in both Houses, and we will definitely need them given that the DFL once again failed to pick up the statehouse.

And with that segue, I’ll now focus on the one disappointment for Minnesota Democrats on election night, and that of course is the gubernatorial election where incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty held on by a one-point margin.  I’m of the mind that DFLer Mike Hatch’s eleventh-hour implosion cost him the election, although there are plenty who disagree with that consensus.  Judi Dutcher’s “What’s E-85?” gaffe probably didn’t do it alone, but it probably cost Hatch votes in the corn belt as Hatch’s numbers were softer than expected in the lower reaches of the proverbial “L”.  There’s no other explanation for me why ethanol-heavy Swift County, a western Minnesota DFL stronghold and birthplace of the Farmer-Labor Party went for Hatch by only 7 points, and why the swing county of Renville (even more ethanol-heavy) a few miles down the road went for Pawlenty by nearly eight points.

But Hatch pointed the shotgun barrel at his other foot and squeezed the trigger with the “Republican whore” brouhaha.  When the first 10 minutes of a televised debate the Friday before the election is dedicated to the “frontrunner” defending his potty mouth, it’s unlikely he’ll be a frontrunner much longer.  I’m kind of surprised that didn’t hurt Hatch even more than it did, and probably would have if it had gotten more media coverage outside of the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market.  Visiting my parents in southeastern Minnesota the Friday before the election, the story was barely a blip on the local news, and Hatch’s numbers did not seem to be as suppressed in that region as they were in the metro area.  Similarly, Hatch’s numbers did not seem to take a beating in the state’s southwestern corner as much as they did in west-central Minnesota, which is in the Twin Cities media market.  Voters in the Worthington area are largely beholden to the Sioux Falls, South Dakota, media market, where Minnesota politics merits hardly a word, and where Dutcher’s gaffe probably never passed their ears.

And, of course, Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, can conclusively be branded a spoiler this cycle, with the DFL stronghold of Ramsey County giving Hutchinson nearly 10% of the vote (with most of it coming from the bluest districts in the city of St. Paul) and almost accounting for the difference between Hatch and Pawlenty by itself.  I’m not one to blame third-party candidates for DFL defeats, but if there was ever a clearcut example of that phenomenon in play it was this gubernatorial election.  Ultimately, it might be a blessing to have Pawlenty around heading in the 2008 Senate election, as DFL fatigue would be more likely to set in had Hatch been victorious amidst DFL supermajorities in the Legislature, and with Norm Coleman poised to be the beneficiary of that fatigue.  On the other hand, Pawlenty’s veep stock went up significantly with his victory, and he would now make a very attractive running mate for somebody like John McCain, increasing the likelihood of a Republican upset in Minnesota in the 2008 Presidential election.

As stated earlier, the Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota dynamic that I predicted would be in play in the Klobuchar-Kennedy race actually did take hold in the gubernatorial election, with Pawlenty winning in much the way he did in 2002, scoring supersized margins in the suburbs and benefitting from a third-party spoiler.  This warrants mentioning for 2008 because the Senate race is likely to follow the same trajectory.  It’s too soon to comment much on this matter without a DFL challenger selected, but Norm Coleman’s 2002 victory is likely to follow the exact same formula as Pawlenty’s this year.  Finding a challenger that can peel off more of those second-ring suburban voters than Mike Hatch or Walter Mondale (circa 2002) were able to is imperative in beating Coleman, because we’re at the point now where we can’t win statewide if we’re not victorious in the second-ring suburbs…and they will likely be just as difficult to take away from Coleman as they were from Pawlenty.

Then again, I totally underestimated Minnesota’s DFL tide in 2006.  I’ll remain optimistic for now that we can keep the ball rolling heading into the next cycle.

(I believe PeterB is making us an offer we can’t refuse. – promoted by DavidNYC)

OK, all the gung-ho folks have already given by now, and the rest of us who haven’t gotten around to giving to the Carter campaign are left.

Time is growing short before the runoff – $ needs to be given to the campaign now to have the greatest effect.

Until 9pm PST tomorrow, I am offering a little inducement by matching any Carter donations made at my ActBlue page up to $10 – dollar for dollar.

I’ll donate up to $250 to her campaign if I can get 24 more donors.

Won’t you be one of them?

Barry Welsh’s Fifty State Strategy page – which tracked candidates for every single House race in the nation – was an invaluable resource this past campaign season. Barry was busy running for Congress, and yet he realized he was part of a much bigger movement. Maintaining this page (which he did with the help of several folks, including SSPer Benawu) was something Barry didn’t have to do, but he did anyway.

And while you might think this project was a time-waster, Barry did nearly ten points better than the last Dem who ran in this ultra-Republican district. Not too shabby for a guy no one had ever heard of, running in a race that was on no one’s radar outside of the netroots. But of course, making an improvement like that costs money, no matter how frugal you are, and Barry wound up with around $3,800 in debt he didn’t expect.

So let’s join with Markos here and do Barry Welsh a solid – let’s help him retire that campaign debt. Kossacks have already made a big dent, but we can chip in some more. Look at it this way: If you’re an elections junkie like me, you would have PAID for a resource like the Fifty State page – at least $10, probably more like $20, if not more. So if you can help Barry out now, consider it payment for extremely valuable services rendered. He deserves it.

(And on a related note, the Swing State Project is helping to carry on the spirit of the Fifty State Strategy page with our 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go check it out!)

(Cross posted on Daily Kos)

Since Election Day, all of the election-related talk has naturally been about 2008, with a few Kissell, Jennings, and Jefferson stories sprinkled in between them. But I say wait a cotton pickin’ minute because we have some southern gubernatorial races to deal with in 2007. Below the fold, I’ll try and go through some background on the three races, the likely contenders, and our chances. I am a Yankee and live in none of the three states, so take my analyses with the required grain of salt.

Mississippi

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Haley Barbour

Possible Democratic Candidates:
Wayne Dowdy – Former Congressman and current head of the Mississippi Democratic Party
James Graves – Member of the Mississippi Supreme Court
Ray Mabus – Former governor, 1988-1992, and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Mike Moore – Former Attorney General, 1988-2004
Ronnie Musgrove – Former governor, 2000-2004, defeated in 2003 by Barbour in a close election

Governor’s Approval Rating:
59%

Analysis:
Probably will be the least competitive of the three gubernatorial races, but that’s not to say it can’t get interesting.  The only way, in my opinion, this race is winnable is if Musgrave or Moore throw their respective hats in the ring.  Moore is apparently well-liked in the state for most notably taking on tobacco companies and getting them to reimburse the state for treating patients of smoke-related illnesses.  Musgrove, being a recent former governor, obviously has the name recognition to make the race potentially competitive.  He did however lose in 2003 to Barbour, so quite a few things would have to go right for him to win again in this deep-red state.

No matter who runs however, they face a huge uphill battle facing a fairly popular Republican governor in a Republican state.

Louisiana

Date of election:
October 20, 2007 & November 17, 2007 (if necessary)

Likely Democratic Nominee:
Incumbent Kathleen Blanco

Possible Republican Candidates:
Bobby Jindal – U.S. Congressman for Louisiana’s 1st congressional district
John Georges – CEO of several large Louisiana based businesses
Walter Boasso – State Senator from Arabi

Governor’s Approval Rating:
39%

Analysis:
Blanco may face a strong challenge from Mitch Landrieu, the current Lieutenant Governor, if he decides to enter the race, which some local pundits expect him to do.  Former Senator John Breaux has been mentioned as another candidate, but has said he would not enter if Blanco runs for re-election, which she has stated she intends to do.  Although she must be considered the favorite among Democrats, a strong challenge from Landrieu would be devastating to her chances as he’ll sifend much needed money from her and potentially cost her an outright victory or, at the least, might allow a Republican into the run-off election.

Bobby Jindal has already announced he will run against Blanco, and from what I can tell, he is already considered the frontrunner in the race.  A poll of 600 people in late October showed Jindal with 52% to Blanco’s 20%.  Landrieu is polling at 9%.  That being said, a lot can happen between Oct 2006 and Oct 2007, but it seems like Blanco has an uphill battle here – a large part of which has to be contributed to the exodus of African-American New Orleans residents leaving the state.  An unpopular Democratic governor in a Republican state is not a good thing.  Throw in that a large part of her base is gone, and it’s hard to see Blanco winning re-election.  One X-factor that’s in her favor is that Jindal is not very battle-tested in that he has won every election by a landslide since taking office.

The other two potential Republicans would not be very significant to the race if they entered.

Note: Louisiana has a run-off election system where if one candidate does not take more than 50% of the vote on Primary Day, another election with the top two finishers is held.

Kentucky

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Ernie Fletcher

Possible Democratic Candidates:
John Y. Brown III – Former Kentucky Secretary of State; son of former Governor of Kentucky John Y. Brown, Jr.
Julian Carroll – Member of the Kentucky State Senate; former Governor of Kentucky, 1974-1979; former Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives
Ben Chandler – Representative from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District
Martha Layne Collins – Former Governor of Kentucky, 1983-1987
Brereton Jones – former Governor of Kentucky, 1991-1995
Greg Stumbo – Attorney General of Kentucky
Otis Hensley, Jr – Private contractor

Governor’s Approval Rating:
35%

Analysis:
This is probably the most interesting of the races to watch in 2007, with a whole slew of Democratic heavy-hitters lined up to take on the very corrupt Fletcher.  The only Democrat who has announced his candidacy thus far is Hensley (who received 3% of the vote in the 2003 Democratic primary), but as you can see, there are a lot of big names that are rumored to jump into this race.

On the surface – which is about the only place I’m capable of making judgements from – there doesn’t seem to be the one or two stand-out candidates that would make a formidable challenger like there is in Mississippi and Louisiana.  Chandler seems like he would make a very formidable candidate, and his seat would not be at-risk as it is heavily Democratic.  You probably can’t go wrong with a former governor – which there seems to be a plethora of on the Democratic side – either.  Perhaps some Kentucky Swing Staters can shed some light on this race.  One thing I do know, however, is that Fletcher is not liked and will face an uphill battle no matter who he faces.

(I couldn’t agree more. Smith is one of the few GOPer senators to represent a blue state, and he has got to be a prime target. And if you want a good example of how to defeat a conservative with a faux-moderate record, just take a look at how my man Paul Hodes demolished Charlie Bass. – promoted by DavidNYC)

Oregon has, encouragingly, been trending blue for two decades.  20 years ago, the state had a Republican governor, two Republican senators, and a congressional delegation split 2R-3D.

Since then, we’ve seen 20 years of Democratic governors, a Democratic Senator, no Republican has been elected to state office since an election for Labor Commissioner in 1994, and the Democrats just this month took control of both chambers of the statehouse.  The only Republican congressman left is in the Eastern half of the state, which isn’t going to elect a Democrat anyway.  But why, then, can’t Oregon seem to shake off our last Republican holdout, Senator Gordon Smith?

Gordon Smith was first elected in 1996, and has spent the last ten years portraying himself in the mold of moderate Republicans who can actually get elected statewide here.  Problem: There are no more Republicans like that in Oregon.  Gordon Smith replaced the last of ’em!  (Mark Hatfield)  Since then, the Oregon Republican Party has been increasingly dominated by right wing anti-tax, anti-choice zealots who play well to their primary base, but can’t win statewide.  But I digress.

Smith wants, even needs, to be seen like a moderate, sensible Republican in order to get elected, and every now and then drops a position so the mainstream press in Oregon can wax poetic about their dying breed of moderate Republican.  Holding out on a budget bill because of excessive Medicaid cuts (although he ended up voting for it), adding Gays and Lesbians to the Hate Crimes Statute (although voting for the Federal Marriage Ammendment), Smith is a die hard social conservative with a knack for knowing just how much he needs to feint to the left in order to preserve the moderate image.

My point is this: the electorate in Oregon wants to believe that moderates of both parties can exist.  After the Hatfields and McCalls and even Packwoods of a generation ago, there is a deep seated desire for pragmatic, bipartisan leadership.  Gordon Smith looks like he fits this model, and unless the people of Oregon can be shown that he is like every other social conservative they’ve spent 20 years rejecting, he will continue to be re-elected.  The only way this is going to happen is with a coordinated, effective campaign by the blogosphere and activist class to show who Smith really is and that campaign needs to start today.  Oregon is still a blue state, Gordon Smith is not wildly popular and he can be made to be vulnerable, but his vulnerability will only come about if we make it. 

(As long as they’ve got special run-off elections going on in Texas, I think the SSP is gonna be Karl’s home-away-from-home. – promoted by DavidNYC)

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