Tag: IN-06

Senate:

• HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye says in a new interview that he “will not take sides in the primary,” and Politico ads that his “top aides insist” he won’t be lending quiet, behind-the-scenes support to any candidates either. I hope that’s true, since I was concerned Ed Case might have mended things with Inouye to the point that the latter might get behind the former. But without some special help, I think Case will have a hard time. Also, SMS Research took the most useless poll imaginable, pitting Case against former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in a primary… and absolutely no one else. Whatevs.

• ME-Sen: Olympia Snowe said she raised over $877K in Q1 and has over $2 million on hand.

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown said he raised $1.3 million in Q1 and has $2.5 million on hand.

• VA-Sen: George Allen said he raised $1.5 million in Q1 and has $1.25 million on hand.

Gubernatorial:

• KY-Gov: TX Gov. Rick Perry, current chair of the RGA, says his organization won’t decide how heavily it’ll get involved in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race until after the May 17th primary. He also declined to endorse frontrunner (and establishment choice) David Williams, saying he’s “got a really good feeling about all the men and women who are running.”

House:

• CO-04: Republican Rep. Corey Gardner apparently raised over $300K in Q1.

• CT-04: Dem Rep. Jim Himes estimates he took in over $300K in Q1.

• IN-06, IN-05: Luke Messer, a former official with the state GOP who nearly beat Rep. Dan Burton in a primary last year, now finds himself living just outside Burton’s 5th CD, according to new maps proposed by Republicans in charge of the state lege. Messer is now in the 6th, which is likely to be vacated by Mike Pence, who everyone thinks will run for governor. Messer says he’s buddies with Pence and will consider running to replace him if Pence makes the leap for the statehouse, but he wouldn’t rule out a rematch against Burton (though he says he wouldn’t move in order to do so).

• MN-08: This is pretty wild: Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) says he’s thinking about staging a comeback. It’s wild because Nolan left office in 1981 and is now 68 years old. It’s also rather strange because Nolan represented what was then the 6th CD, which is accurately represented in the map Joe Bodell presents. (His reader update is incorrect.) At the time, Nolan’s district covered the southwestern and central portions of the state; today’s 8th is in the northeastern corner (though they share one county in common, Mille Lacs). And to cap it all off, Nolan was touting himself at a Dem meeting in Bemidji, which is in the 7th CD. Actually, no – the real capper is that Nolan was a practitioner of the ’60s & ’70s fad of “Transcendental Meditation” (whose practitioners claimed they could levitate) and earned a mention in Time Magazine for it.

• MO-03: Not going gently… or padding the warchest for a different race, or perhaps something else down the line? Russ Carnahan raised $333K in Q1, his best first quarter ever, and has $286K on hand. Dave Catanese notes that Lacy Clay raised just $17K (though he has $222K in the bank). Would Carnahan really go up against Clay in a primary? What do you think?

• MS-02: Greenville Mayor Heather McTeer Hudson said she plans to challenge veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson in the Democratic primary next year. She also announced she’s hiring pollster Celinda Lake. Hudson had previously said she wouldn’t seek re-election to her current post. Thompson, meanwhile, ended last year with $1.7 million on hand and has warded off primary challengers before (most recently in 2006, in the form of Chuck Espy, son of former Rep. Mike Espy).

• SD-AL: Though it seems all but certain that ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won’t seek a rematch this cycle (among other things, she just accepted a teaching position at South Dakota State University, where she once worked), she did say she’s open to the possibility of seeking office again at some point in the future. She didn’t specify what post, so you can mentally flag this item as something other than just SD-AL if you like. Speaking of SD-AL, Rep. Kristi Noem (the woman who beat Sandlin) announced she took in $396K in Q1.

Other Races:

• LA-AG: Former Rep. Joe Cao says he plans to challenge Dem-cum-Republican AG Buddy Caldwell this fall. Cao specifically cited Caldwell’s party switch (which only happened in February) and questioned his Republican bona fides – sort of an unusual move in a state where party switching has been very common. We’ll see if he Cao actually has the chops to make a race of it. (Side note: A proud moment in SSP in-the-weeds history: Live-blogging the LA-AG runoff in 2007, when control of the state House was also at stake.)

• MS-AG: A rare bright spot for Mississippi Dems: Attorney General Jim Hood leads Republican Steve Simpson by 49-32 margin in PPP’s latest poll.

• Special Elections: From Johnny L-T:

Two of the three elections last night were landslides; in South Carolina’s SD-16, Republican Greg Gregory trounced Democrat Keith Brann and Libertarian Stan Smith by a 77-18-5 margin, while in Minnesota’s SD-66, DFLer Mary Jo McGuire beat Republican Greg Copeland 80-20. In Connecticut’s HD-128, Democrat Dan Fox won with 39%, while Republican Charles Pia (not Antonacci, my mistake) came in second with 24%. Independents John Mallozzi and Monique Thomas both made strong showings, pulling in 23% and 13%, respectively, and Green Rolf Maurer brought up the rear with about 1%. Note that Mallozzi failed to win the Democratic nomination, so he petitioned his way onto the ballot.

Remainders:

• Pay-to-Play: MaryNYC, the First Lady of the Swing State Project (aka my wife), has an interesting backgrounder on the SEC’s new regulations which attempt to curtail Wall Street from engaging in “pay-to-play” with elected officials. What’s interesting about the rules is that they make it very difficult for employees of financial firms to donate to state and local officeholders who have a stake in municipal investment decisions, but generally speaking doesn’t affect donations to federal officeholders. So, in a hypothetical example, New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas, who is weighing a run for Senate, might find Wall Street’s doors shut, while Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is already in the race, would face no such problems.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Indiana: We’ll have a lengthier redistricting-only digest later today, but I wanted to bring you this information ASAP. A source involved in Indiana politics informs me that these are the Obama percentages for each CD in the new map proposed by Republicans in the state lege:

IN-01: 63.2

IN-02: 49.4

IN-03: 42.9

IN-04: 44.4

IN-05: 46.5

IN-06: 43.5

IN-07: 66.3

IN-08: 48.0

IN-09: 46.1

• FL-Sen: Meg Whitman seems like a strange place to start talking about the Florida Senate race, but hear me out. She’s in the news today for the outrageously large sums of money she paid to her top campaign staff (although, to be fair, in her particular frame of reference, I’m sure those seemed like outrageously small sums of money), including $948K paid to her campaign manager, Jill Hasner. If that name sounds vaguely familiar, she’s the wife of former Florida state House majority leader Adam Hasner, currently making trips to DC to lay groundwork for a run in the GOP primary. If that $948K gets plowed straight into Hasner’s bid, that’s a pretty significant nut to start out with. Money is also the reason you keep hearing Rep. Vern Buchanan’s name associated with this race, even if he hasn’t said anything publicly indicating his interest for 2012; he has $956K in his House account, second most of all the Florida House delegation, which would give him a head start if he transferred that over to a Senate bid.

• MA-Sen: Not content to rest on his already-tops-in-the-2012-class $7 million cash stash, Scott Brown has set a fundraising target of $25 million for his Senate race. Whether he actually can hit that is an open question, but the fact that he can even credibly lay down a marker like this is a reminder that this race is no gimmee for the Dems. Also, here’s a neat story that’s more about the meta of reporting on campaigns in their formative stages, and how, in the absence of useful information, we’re all pretty much just talking in circles about rumors that quickly become unclear where they started. It’s a piece from a central Massachusetts blog that investigates where the heck the idea of Fitchburg mayor Lisa Wong running for Senate came from and how that bubbled up to the national level, despite her having done nothing to indicate any interest in the race… and today, closing the circle of meta, Politico, the main purveyor of such campaign-rumor grist, reported on the story. I don’t know whether to be ashamed or pleased that Swing State Project is cited as one of the key players in this particular game of telephone; either way, clearly we’ve hit the big time.

• MI-Sen: Buried in a Roll Call article that does a lot of pointless Debbie Stabenow/Russ Feingold comparing are two names from potential GOP candidates I’d never heard of, although, without knowing more about their self-financing abilities, they seem to be at the Some Dude end of the spectrum. They cite businessman Al Pease, and former juvenile court judge Randy Hekman (who seems to be working a social con angle).

• NE-Sen: Ben Nelson’s most recent statement on the Senate race was only that he was “leaning toward” another run, which isn’t very confidence-inspiring considering that he’d previously said that he was running. But here’s a more clear tell that he is running; he just re-hired his 2006 CM, Paul Johnson, as campaign manager.

• NJ-Sen, NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with some New Jersey numbers, although it’s approvals only… and, in what seems like an unusual departure from tradition, they actually find New Jerseyites, dare I say, liking their politicians?!? Is the giant nationwide wave of bile actually starting to ebb as the economy improves? At any rate, Bob Menendez (44/36), Frank Lautenberg (45/40), and Chris Christie (52/40) all sport positive approvals.

• SC-Sen: PPP fleshes out the 2014 Lindsey Graham situation with some more detailed numbers among Republicans, which they already hinted at with how his approvals broke down in their general electorate sample. His approvals among that group are 42/40, but he also has re-elects of only 37/52. He beats ex-Gov. Mark Sanford easily in a hypothetical primary (52-34), but against a non-Appalachian-Trail-hiking opponent, Rep. Joe Wilson, he trails 43-41.

• NC-Gov: It hadn’t occurred to me that Republican former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory might not seek a rematch against Bev Perdue in next year’s gubernatorial race; when asked about whether he’d run at an appearance Friday, his answer was just “I hope to.”

• CA-36: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn rolled out more endorsements today, most notably former NBA player Magic Johnson, whom I understand may have some goodwill of some sort in the LA area. She also boasts the endorsement of Assemblyman Warren Furutani (a rumored candidate for a day or two) and ex-Asm. George Nakano, as well as a slew of other city councilors in LA and its southern suburbs. The big question is whether Hahn will get the endorsement of Jane Harman herself; recall that Hahn was Harman’s guest at the State of the Union last month, for what that’s worth. There’s also one other GOPer to add to the list: Redondo Beach city attorney Mike Webb.

• IN-06: With Mike Pence likely to run for Governor and leaving behind an open red district, look for this crowd to grow. Republican Henry County Councilor Nate LaMar is now actively telling local party chairs that he intends to run.

• NY-26: I’d file this more under general “schadenfreude” than a definite Congressional career-killer, but this little indiscretion can’t make things any better for sophomore GOP Rep. (and possible redistricting truncation victim) Chris Lee.

• Chicago mayor: The big story here may not be that Rahm Emanuel keeps gaining in the polls — he’s at 54% in the new poll from Richard Day Research, taken for ABC-7, which is enough to avoid a runoff — but that Carol Mosely Braun is in complete free-fall. In the wake of calling a minor opponent in the race a crackhead and various other lesser gaffes, she’s down to 6%! While there aren’t trendlines from this pollster, based on where other polls have been, Emanuel seems to be the main beneficiary of this flight, as Gery Chico and Miguel del Valle are still hanging far back, at 14 and 8 respectively.

• Votes: Here’s an interesting bit of left/right convergence against the middle, on one of those rare common-ground issues: the Patriot Act. The House failed to renew the Patriot Act by a 277-147 margin, with 26 GOP nays joining 122 Dems. (For some reason, the leadership was doing this under suspension of rules, which means they needed 2/3rds to pass it. It looks like they’ll simply do it again and pass it under normal rules.) Knee-jerk pundits have been presenting this as a triumph of the tea partiers newly elected to Congress, but a more detailed look between the lines finds less than half of the Tea Party Caucus voting against it, and only eight of the GOP freshmen voting against it. Interestingly, two GOP House members more on the establishment end of things who are likely to be running for Senate in 2012, Connie Mack IV and Dean Heller, voted against it, showing the amazing progress in the Patriot Act’s transition from legislative slam-dunk ten years ago to a potential electoral liability now.

• VRA: The Dept. of Justice seems to have kicked things into high gear with redistricting and off-year elections approaching. They just granted VRA preclearance to California to proceed with its nonpartisan citizen redistricting panels (not a controversial proposal, certainly, but still requiring preclearance because of four California counties), and to Louisiana to restore its jungle-style primary at the federal level in addition to the state level.

• Voter suppression: Welcome Tennessee to the growing club of states with Republican-controlled legislatures who are getting on the bandwagon of requiring voter IDs. The proposal cleared a state Senate committee yesterday.

• MI-Sen: Peter Hoekstra, having just started as a “senior adviser” at Dickstein Shapiro, let Politico know that, despite all appearances associated with his new job, he hasn’t ruled out a 2012 Senate bid, saying he’s keeping his options open. (I know that on my first day on the job, I like to loudly tell everybody that I may not be working there much longer. Really helps you get off on the right foot with your boss.)

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester wasted no time in going after newly-announced Denny Rehberg, drawing connections between Rehberg and Michele Bachmann (and her proposed $4.5 billion in VA cuts). Bachmann will be a featured speaker at the event on Saturday where Rehberg formally announces. Tester raised $128K in Q4 with $562K, a decent amount for the small state of Montana but not much different from Rehberg’s $553K war chest.

• TX-Sen: You might remember talk from a couple years ago where ESPN analyst Craig James was interested in running for what was then expected to be a Senate special election to replace a resigning Kay Bailey Hutchison. That faded into the mists of time, but here’s the first statement of interest I’ve seen from him since the race re-opened up thanks to her retirement. It comes up in the context of him saying that, yes, he believes people in Lubbock would still vote for him despite his role in getting Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach fired.

• UT-Sen: An interesting piece about Orrin Hatch focuses mostly on how he’s trying to avoid the fate of Bob Bennett by reaching out and engaging the local tea party crowd as much as possible; a local ‘bagger comments that Hatch shouldn’t expect their endorsement but his efforts will really limit the outrage that seemed to overwhelm Bennett. (Hatch also has an interesting selling point to offer them: if he’s defeated but the GOP takes the Senate, that puts Olympia Snowe in charge of Finance.) Buried in the story is a provocative comment from Bennett’s vanquisher, Mike Lee, who only says that he’ll “fully support” the GOP nominee without saying anything about backing Hatch.

• AK-AL, NY-13: Here are two House races where the potential challenger has the financial advantage, according to new Q4 numbers. One is the possible GOP primary for Alaska’s at-large seat, where Joe Miller has $825K left in the bank, thanks to money he didn’t get a chance to spend on his legal defense, whereas Don Young has $170K CoH. (Miller, of course, hasn’t said anything specific about a race against Young in 2012, but he and Young have publicly traded some barbs.) The other is NY-13, where surprise Republican victor Michael Grimm actually finds himself in debt, with a net minus-$36K while Democratic ex-Rep. Mike McMahon, who seems to be laying groundwork for a rematch, has $17K CoH leftover.

• IN-05, IN-06: Roll Call looks at the slowly-developing race to replace Mike Pence in the 6th. Most (if not all) the action is on the GOP side so far, with former Wayne Co. Sheriff Matt Strittmatter the only one with a campaign account open so far (which contains $39K). Other GOPers include 1990s-era ex. Rep. David McIntosh, Henry County Council president Nate LaMar, ’10 Senate primary loser Don Bates, and ’10 IN-05 primary loser Luke Messer… but it sounds like Messer, who almost beat the unloved Dan Burton, may be running in the 5th again, seeing as how Roll Call got Burton’s office to confirm that Burton (frequent subject of retirement speculation) plans to run for re-election. One other wrinkle: Republican redistricting efforts to redden Joe Donnelly’s IN-02 may wind up making IN-06 less Republican, so that might encourage Dems to at least consider playing in the 6th.

• MT-AL: With Montana’s at-large House seat suddenly looking like it’s on track to be an open seat, we may actually get some decent Democratic candidates in the race. It’s occasionally been a competitive seat, currently at R+7, though not really hotly contested since the last time it was open, in 2000. Democratic State Rep. Franke Wilmer of Bozeman is already floating her name for the race. (If she won, she’d be the first woman in the seat since the legendary Jeannette Rankin.)

• SD-AL: Now this is interesting: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (haven’t heard anything about a rematch, but this might perk up her ears) is actually leading a hypothetical rematch by one point (46-45) against new Republican Rep. Kristi Noem, according to PPP. PPP points out that she lost by three in 2010, so that small shift is consistent with the small nationwide bump upwards for the Dems over the last month or two. Herseth Sandlin’s favorables are 55/36, compared with Noem’s 38/35 approvals. Over on the Senate side, Tim Johnson (who isn’t up until 2014) is at 47/41 approval.

• LA-AG: We’ve seen a couple dozen legislative party-switchers from the Democrats to the Republicans in southern states in the last few months, in the wake of several states’ chambers finally completing their realignment all the way down to the state level, but nobody at a statewide level doing so… until now. Louisiana AG Buddy Caldwell, facing a potentially tough general election, plans to switch to Republican status. (I’d invoke the cautionary specter of Parker Griffith, but Louisiana uses a jungle primary so switching to a potentially tough primary instead may not be the kiss of death.) Since Caldwell was already the only Democratic AG who had joined the multi-state lawsuit against healthcare reform, his “Democrat” status was pretty negligible at this point.

• MA-St. House: This may be one of the largest constituencies where I’ve seen a race end in a tie (although I’m sure someone in the comments can come up with a historic example of an even bigger race that tied). The November election in Massachusetts’s 6th Worcester district in the state House was just declared a tie by a superior court judge, and (rather than flipping a coin, drawing lots, or sending them to Thunderdome) a do-over special election was ordered. Democratic incumbent Geraldo Alicea and GOPer Peter Durant both got 6,587 votes. No date has been set yet, but we’ll all be on pins and needles that night, seeing as how Dems control that chamber by only a 128-31 margin.

• CA-Referenda: A statewide special election is planned for some point in June, as Jerry Brown seeks a public mandate for extending increases in three different taxes (and he seems to think he has a better shot getting this through a public vote than the legislature). This is likely to be an entirely vote-by-mail affair, presaging a potential California shift in the direction of its west coast brethren. Somewhat counterintuitively (since vote-by-mail is usually considered to boost Dems), though, observers think this might skew the election toward older, whiter voters, as mail delivery is “unreliable in spots” (?!?) in heavily-minority Los Angeles County and voters there still tend to rely heavily on polling places. On the plus side, though, a recent PPIC poll found more support for extending the taxes among the 55+ set (56 yes/38 no) than among the entire population (where there was 50 yes/48 no support). Have the most seriously tax-hating seniors all fled to Arizona?

• Fundraising: The Fix has a bunch more Senate fundraising numbers to report, building on the numbers we gave you yesterday. For the Dems, Bob Casey Jr. seems to be fully engaged with his race, pulling in $621K in Q4 for $1.3 million CoH, while the publicity surrounding FiliBernie seems to have been a big cash cow for Bernie Sanders, who raised $485K for $536K CoH. Bob Menendez raised $237K for $2.4 million CoH, while freshly-elected Joe Manchin seemed to take a breather from fundraising, raising only $18K for $377K. Among not just vulnerable Republicans but basically everybody else in the Senate, Scott Brown is still the unstoppable money machine, in terms of both cash raised and CoH: $734K raised for $7.2 million CoH. Richard Lugar raised $173K for $2.35 million CoH, while Olympia Snowe raised $79K for $1.2 million CoH.

• Census: We’re still waiting for this week’s released of detailed 2010 data for Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia, but the Census Bureau is letting us know that next week they’ll be out with four more: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland.

• WATN?: Rod Grams somehow managed to be one of the least memorable Senators of my lifetime who managed to serve a full term (surprisingly swept in in Minnesota in 1994, easily turned out in 2000), and now he’s working a job that seems befitting his anonymity. He’s working as a Hill staffer, and not even on the Senate side: he’s the new chief of staff to new MN-08 Rep. Chip Cravaack. (Recall that Cravaack did what Grams couldn’t do in 2006: knock off Jim Oberstar, in what was a strange comeback attempt by Grams.)

• NV-Sen: By far the most interesting news of what’s been a very slow news day is that John Ensign appears to be running again, at least according to one of his spokespersons. While he’s been acting like he’d run again (and he was probably encouraged by that recent PPP poll showing him leading Dean Heller in a GOP primary), it’s still a little surprising, given the disrepair his fundraising operation has fallen into, and the pile of ethics and potentially criminal investigations he’ll have to navigate next year. (H/t sebby123.)

• FL-Sen: Can’t a man publish an op-ed in a major in-state newspaper without people thinking he’s running for a higher office? Well, apparently not, based on reaction to a column written by Rep. Connie Mack IV in the Orlando Sentinel that took Bill Nelson to task over extension of Bush-era tax cuts. Beltway code-talkers are interpreting this as the first salvo of a likely Senate race.

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov, WV-02: GOP Rep. Shelly Moore Capito is sounding studiously noncommital about her plans for 2012. A challenge to newly-elected (in a special election) Sen. Joe Manchin? “I’m not ruling it out…” but also “I have given no thought to it…” (other than, by definition, the amount of thought needed in order to decide not to rule it out). She also didn’t rule out running for Governor in 2012, although she did pretty explicitly rule out running for Governor if the legislature decides they should have a fast odd-numbered-year special election to replace Manchin in 2011. A Manchin/Capito match would be between two super-popular politicians: a Blankenship (the pollster, not the coal company) survey just found Manchin with 80% approvals and Capito at 77%.

• AL-02: Bobby Bright popped up today to criticize the Dems’ decision to retain Nancy Pelosi as leader, but he also offered some vague “never say never” sentiments about a return engagement for his seat, saying he wouldn’t rule it out in 2012.

• IN-06: With Mike Pence looking likelier that he’s up and out of the House after this term — although whether he’s running for Governor or President is unclear — Roll Call names some potential replacements. One is a blast from the past: ex-Rep. David McIntosh, who represented an earlier iteration of this district (then IN-02) from 1994 to 2000, when he lost the Governor’s race. Other names include Wayne Co. Sheriff Matt Strittmatter, former state Rep. Luke Messer (whom you might remember from narrowly losing the IN-05 primary to Dan Burton this year), and rich guy Don Bates (who finished 4th in the IN-Sen primary this year, and has also been rumored for a Richard Lugar primary challenge).

• LA-SoS: Here’s an interesting career pivot: soon-to-be-ex. Rep. Joe Cao is considering a run for Louisiana Secretary of State. He’d face a primary against Tom Schedler, a Republican who will be acting SoS for the next year (current SoS Jay Dardenne is about to be sworn in as Lt. Governor) and will be running for a permanent slot next year. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

I guess it’s time to start up a new House open seat watch, huh?

NewsChannel 15 political analyst and Republican Allen County Recorder John McGauley says Congressman Mike Pence will run for Indiana governor in 2012.

McGauley said that information came straight from people who work for Pence .

“He’s running for governor. He’s laying the groundwork with all these bus tours that he’s doing; supporting legislative candidates [in Indiana]. And he’s even out there right now recruiting county coordinators for a governor’s race,” said McGauley.

Pence is staying mum for now, but it sure looks like he may be the man to challenge Evan Bayh in two years.

DE-Sen: Mike Castle says he raised $826K in Q1 and has $2.3 mil cash-on-hand. Dem Chris Coons did quite well, too, raising $635K in just six weeks, including contributions from over half the Dems in the Senate.

FL-Sen: For almost any other candidate in almost any other race, a $1.1 million quarter would be a sweet haul – but not for Charlie Crist, who got smoked by Marco Rubio’s $3.6 million take. Crist’s fundraising has dropped every quarter he’s been running, from $4.4 to $2.5 to $2.1 and now to this. Crist still has an impressive $7.5 million on hand, though, while Rubio hasn’t announced his cash figures.

IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth says he raised $625K in the six weeks he’s been running for the Senate and, thanks to money he already had in his House account, now has over a million on hand.

AZ-08: Dem Rep. Gabby Giffords says she raised about $500K in Q1 – but so has GOP opponent Jonathan Paton, a former state senator. Giffords has about $2 mil in the bank.

HI-01: A poll for the DCCC supposedly shows a tie between Ed Case and Charles Djou at 32, with Colleen Hanabusa at 27. There are no other details to go on (such as who the pollster was & when the survey was in the field), but this alone doesn’t seem to support the “she’s so toxic, the D-Trip has no choice but to back Case” theory.

IN-06: Dem Barry Welsh, a figure known to many in the netroots, says he’s going to challenge Mike Pence a third time. Welsh, in a bout of dour realism about this R+10 district, states: “I don’t have any delusions of winning.”

LA-02: Looks like Joe Cao put in an appearance at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference this past weekend. Admittedly, it took place in his home district, but still, attending a wingnut festival where you have the likes of Haley Barbour defending Bob McDonnell’s love of the Confederacy doesn’t seem like a wise political move. Fortunately, the wingers hate Cao, too – click the link to see more.

MD-01: Jack Wilson, “a semi-retired owner of an electrical contracting business, Navy veteran and former union steam fitter” – and teabagger – will run as an independent.

MI-01: A few names are surfacing on the Dem side to replace retiring Rep. Bart Stupak: State Reps. Mike Lahti and Gary McDowell, and state Sen. Mike Prusi. On the GOP side, state House Min. Leader Kevin Elsenheimer said he’s taking a “serious look” at the race and will make a decision soon.

PA-07: After a setback in court, Bryan Lentz has withdrawn his challenge to Pat Meehan’s ballot petitions. However, the state Attorney General’s office is still investigating what look like serious irregularities in the filings.

PA-12: There’s a third guy on the ballot in the PA-12 special election: Libertarian Demo Agoris. He’s practically the dictionary definition of a perennial candidate, running five times for the same state House seat, with a different political party each time, including once as a member of the Green Party. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like he has “Whig” under his belt – yet.

VA-02: Another one (see MD-01 item): Kenny Golden, a former chair of the Virginia Beach GOP, says he’s dropping out of the Republican primary to instead run as an independent.

Minnesota: The aptly-named MinnesotaMike fills us in on what went down at five different CD-level conventions in his state this weekend. Two Dem and three GOP House nominees were chosen.

Census: Another reason to hate on hipsters: The lowest census form return rate in NYC so far is in Williamsburg, Brooklyn – aka hipster central, whose denizens apparently can’t take time out from cooing over their fixies to fill out a simple piece of paperwork.

Polltopia: The boys over at Public Policy Polling want your suggestions on where to poll next. Tell them!

Passings: Former GOP Rep. Bob Franks, who lost the 2000 senate race to Jon Corzine and was touted for a possible return to his old seat in the 7th CD as recently as 2008, passed away last week at the age of 58.

How about Mike Pence? From the Politico:

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will speak with aides this afternoon to discuss whether to jump into the Indiana Senate race. […]

But aides are skeptical he’ll pull the trigger. There are concerns that he publicly passed on the opportunity to run last month, citing the GOP’s strong position in the House. Further, he’s considered among the strongest candidates for governor of Indiana in 2012.

Privately, aides to Pence say he was concerned about Bayh’s $13 million in the bank, but now Pence could be able to “walk into the seat,” according to an aide.

I find it hard to imagine Mike Pence actually doing this — the mechanics seem to be too difficult to pull off with the filing deadline so soon. That said, the rumors are swirling; we’re even hearing some chatter about Gov. Mitch Daniels plunging into the race.

For the Democrats, speculation seems to be centering on current Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (the current Ambassador to India), and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who is viewed as one of the party’s leading candidates for the gubernatorial race in 2012. But of course, Democrats may need to make sure that the ballot is clear before getting the opportunity to hand the nomination over to any of these guys. (And, as it stands right now, that’s an open question.) Otherwise, we may be looking at a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign.

UPDATE (Crisitunity): So what about Tamyra d’Ippolito, college-town coffee shop owner and erstwhile Senate candidate? TPM contacted her camp and finds that she’s currently 1,000 votes short of the required 4,500, with a particular shortage in IN-08 (she needs at least 500 in each congressional district). Somehow, given the choice between running her or naming their own preferred candidate, I don’t think the party will get actively involved in the efforts to help her to get on the ballot in time. Neither does d’Ippolito: “So I have no idea what they will do, but they have not been cooperative so far,” d’Ippolito added. “It would be nice if they turned around and became cooperative, but I don’t know.”

UPDATE: It’s now sounding like Mike Pence won’t run, despite an hour or two of interest. Chris Cillizza tweets that Pence’s spokesman’s official statement is: “Mr. Pence has filed for re-election to the 6th Congressional District of Indiana.” Which apparently is code for “no.”

LATER UPDATE (James): d’Ippolito’s campaign manager has told Real Clear Politics that their chances of getting all the required signatures are “slim to none”, but that they won’t step aside if they somehow do.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Cross former Democratic Governor Joe Kernan off the list; he says he won’t run.

A bullet dodged for Evan Bayh:

As many of you are aware, I have been approached about running for the United States Senate in 2010. Karen and I have been humbled by the outpouring of support and encouragement which we received from across Indiana, especially since there are several capable and qualified candidates already seeking the Republican nomination.

After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th Congressional District in 2010.

I am staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.

As it stands now, Bayh’s highest-profile Republican opponent is ex-Rep. John Hostettler, who is not known as the strongest of campaigners. Still, if Dan Quayle could beat an longtime, respected incumbent…

Indiana is where I live now, so I thought I’d do a rundown here too, though I don’t know the politics as well and the results won’t be as interesting as for the Arizona races.  The big story here is a colossal recruiting failure on the part of Republicans in IN-01, IN-02, and IN-08, and a sticky situation for them in IN-09.  As of now, I predict only one competitive race in the entire state in 2010.  Read on for more…

IN-Sen: Evan Bayh is beloved in this state.  I’ve heard liberals and conservatives alike talk about how great he is — it’s the darnedest thing.  Plus, he’s sitting on $12 million, which is what happens when you don’t seriously challenge a guy for twelve years.  State Sen. Martin Stutzman and former Rep. John Hostettler aren’t going to give Bayh much of a scare.  Rep. Mike Pence could pose a stiffer challenge, but it’s not at all clear that he’s going to pull the trigger.  Even if Pence did run, the smart money would still be on Bayh; his iconic status and unbelievable warchest would make him difficult to beat even in the best of electoral climates for Republicans.  Prediction: Likely Dem hold.

IN-01: Exhibit A in the GOP’s recruiting woes saga in this state.  Rep. Pete Visclosky is embroiled in scandal and being investigated by the FBI, and even though it’s a deep-blue district, the Republicans should put up a Joe Cao-like candidate in case Visclosky’s legal troubles worsen.  So far, all they’ve been able to manage is frequent candidate and carpenter Mark Leyva, last seen getting pasted by Visclosky last cycle…and the cycle before…and the one before that…and the one before that.  Yes, Leyva has been the Republican nominee against Visclosky four consecutive times, and is trying for his fifth — a situation roughly analogous to that in IN-09.  Leyva’s best showing was 32% back in 2004, so there’s nothing going on in this district unless someone else steps up.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

IN-02: Rep. Joe Donnelly is always afraid he’s going to lose this red seat, but he just keeps getting lucky.  The GOP’s infamous recruiting failure here last cycle resulted in their hand-picked candidate, Luke Puckett, nearly losing the primary to a neo-Nazi sympathizer en route to getting steamrolled 67-30 by Donnelly.  Republicans put some muscle into getting a better recruit this time, but the candidate they got, State Rep. Jackie Wilarski, is scarcely better than Puckett.  Given the national climate and the district’s lean, this seat should be the Republicans’ for the taking, but “Wacky Jackie” isn’t going to cut the mustard.  Unless someone else steps up for the Republicans, Donnelly only loses in a 70-seat landslide.  Prediction: likely Dem hold.

IN-03: The Democrats have a better candidate in this race than they have any right to expect given the national mood and the hard-right lean of the district: Tom Hayhurst, a medical doctor and former Fort Wayne City Councilman.  Hayhurst came shockingly close to beating Rep. Mark Souder back in 2006, garnering 46% of the vote despite a complete lack of national Democratic support.  Had he made his second try in a better year for Democrats — for instance, in 2008 — Hayhurst might have had a shot at this seat.  As it is, the national Democrats will have too many incumbents to defend to bother with a long-shot race like this one, and Souder righted his sputtering campaign machine in a convincing 2008 win over 28-year-old attorney Michael Montagano.  Souder has to be heavily favored to win both his primary against former congressional aide Phil Troyer and Paulist Rachel Grubb, and the general election against Hayhurst.  If Grubb or Troyer somehow beat Souder in the primary, however, Hayhurst might have a chance.  Prediction: likely GOP hold.

IN-04: Last cycle, attorney Nels Ackerson briefly posed a serious challenge to Rep. Steve Buyer before completely imploding on the campaign trail.  This year, no one is even bothering to run against the well-funded and effective Buyer.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

IN-05: In the most conservative district in Indiana, the only question is which of the ten thousand conservative Republicans running — including incumbent Rep. Dan Burton — will be on hand to steamroll cancer physician Nasser Hanna in the general election.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

IN-06: This district, represented by arch-conservative Rep. Mike Pence, is actually somewhat interesting in that it’s the most moderate district in Indiana currently represented by a Republican — more so than IN-03, which was seriously in play during the past two cycles.  Pence’s personal popularity and influence in Washington has kept it safe for him, but with rumors that he’ll be moving up to Senate or Presidential races soon (either this cycle or next), there would seem to be an opening here for a popular and/or well-funded Democrat.  On the other hand, the complete lack of Dem candidates running for the seat this cycle — exactly zero last time I checked — indicates that this isn’t the year to bank on a pickup here.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

IN-07: Republicans used to do well in this district because the incumbent, former Rep. Julia Carson, was too ill to campaign.  When her grandson Andre trounced the most popular Republican in the district by 13 points in a 2007 special election, the GOP realized those days were over.  The Republicans aren’t even trying this cycle; college professor Marvin Scott, last seen getting 38% of the vote against Evan Bayh in 2004, won’t pose much of a threat to Carson.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

IN-08: The “bloody Eighth” stopped being bloody after wildly popular sheriff Brad Ellsworth beat Rep. John Hostettler by 24 points back in 2006.  The Republicans might have a shot at this seat given the national climate, but Ellsworth is so popular that no serious candidate has stepped up thus far.  Hostettler would rather make a kamikaze run against Evan Bayh than face Ellsworth again, and cardiologist Larry Bucshon won’t even make Ellsworth break a sweat.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

IN-09: This is the main show in Indiana this cycle, and it’s one residents of the district have seen four times before.  Get ready for the fifth installment of Rep. Baron Hill vs. former Rep. Mike Sodrel.  Hill is 3-1 in their previous matchups, including a 20-point pasting of Sodrel in 2008 (all three of the other races were very close).  A new poll, however, shows Sodrel beating Hill by eight points if the election were held today.  I don’t doubt that people in this district are fed up with Hill — his milquetoast campaign style has failed to make him as entrenched as Ellsworth is in the neighboring district — but I really can’t see them voting for Sodrel after they basically told him to take his ball and go home just fourteen months ago.  If Sodrel wins his primary against attorney Todd Young and teabagger Travis Hankins, I’d have to say Hill is favored to win reelection.  It’s just as likely, though, that the establishment candidate Young will beat the more conservative Sodrel, and if that happens, Hill’s toast.  Since Hill wants to run for governor in 2012, he might also decide to bail on this race; in that case, term-limited Bloomington Mayor Mark Kruzan, who’s been trying to build a national profile lately, might run for the seat, but he’s too liberal for the district and would be heavily outgunned by either Sodrel or Young.  On balance, I’d give the slight advantage to the Republicans here.  Prediction: tossup.

Seats in order of likelihood of flipping: IN-09, IN-Sen, IN-02, IN-03, IN-01, IN-07, IN-06, IN-08, IN-05, IN-04.

Predicted outcome: Republicans pick up IN-09, Burton loses to another Republican in IN-04, all other seats stay in the same hands (I’m least sanguine about IN-09, and wouldn’t count Dems out yet).

Something to keep an eye on over the next few days:

Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) says he and his wife will “take the weekend” to decide whether to run for the Senate this year.

Pence said Friday on WIBC radio host Greg Garrison’s program that he’s been “flattered” and “humbled” by calls for him to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D). […]

Though Pence hasn’t come to a decision, he seemed to lay out a stronger case for continuing to serve in the House, where he has a safe seat. Pence noted that he holds a leadership position and thinks Republicans can win a majority in the House this year. The path to a Republican majority in the Senate, however, is even more difficult.

“Whether it be fiscal responsibility or traditional moral values or a strong defense, the fact that conservatives could get control of one chamber of the Congress in 2010 and begin to restore those principles to government is a very significant opportunity and a serious opportunity,” Pence said. “So we’re weighing those things. … Karen and I are going to take the weekend, take a hard look at it, commit the matter to prayer and try and make a decision in the near future.”

Pence, the number three Republican in the House, also confirmed that he recently met with NRSC Chair John Cornyn and his staff. He’d have a lot to lose by giving up his comfy perch in the House, especially since, as he correctly notes, the GOP has a real shot at retaking that chamber this year. However, I don’t think that Evan Bayh is an unbeatable incumbent in a year like this, and the platform of a Senate seat has to be tempting for a guy who may be angling for Presidential contender status soon.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-06