Tag: SD-Sen

• MI-Sen: Peter Hoekstra, having just started as a “senior adviser” at Dickstein Shapiro, let Politico know that, despite all appearances associated with his new job, he hasn’t ruled out a 2012 Senate bid, saying he’s keeping his options open. (I know that on my first day on the job, I like to loudly tell everybody that I may not be working there much longer. Really helps you get off on the right foot with your boss.)

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester wasted no time in going after newly-announced Denny Rehberg, drawing connections between Rehberg and Michele Bachmann (and her proposed $4.5 billion in VA cuts). Bachmann will be a featured speaker at the event on Saturday where Rehberg formally announces. Tester raised $128K in Q4 with $562K, a decent amount for the small state of Montana but not much different from Rehberg’s $553K war chest.

• TX-Sen: You might remember talk from a couple years ago where ESPN analyst Craig James was interested in running for what was then expected to be a Senate special election to replace a resigning Kay Bailey Hutchison. That faded into the mists of time, but here’s the first statement of interest I’ve seen from him since the race re-opened up thanks to her retirement. It comes up in the context of him saying that, yes, he believes people in Lubbock would still vote for him despite his role in getting Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach fired.

• UT-Sen: An interesting piece about Orrin Hatch focuses mostly on how he’s trying to avoid the fate of Bob Bennett by reaching out and engaging the local tea party crowd as much as possible; a local ‘bagger comments that Hatch shouldn’t expect their endorsement but his efforts will really limit the outrage that seemed to overwhelm Bennett. (Hatch also has an interesting selling point to offer them: if he’s defeated but the GOP takes the Senate, that puts Olympia Snowe in charge of Finance.) Buried in the story is a provocative comment from Bennett’s vanquisher, Mike Lee, who only says that he’ll “fully support” the GOP nominee without saying anything about backing Hatch.

• AK-AL, NY-13: Here are two House races where the potential challenger has the financial advantage, according to new Q4 numbers. One is the possible GOP primary for Alaska’s at-large seat, where Joe Miller has $825K left in the bank, thanks to money he didn’t get a chance to spend on his legal defense, whereas Don Young has $170K CoH. (Miller, of course, hasn’t said anything specific about a race against Young in 2012, but he and Young have publicly traded some barbs.) The other is NY-13, where surprise Republican victor Michael Grimm actually finds himself in debt, with a net minus-$36K while Democratic ex-Rep. Mike McMahon, who seems to be laying groundwork for a rematch, has $17K CoH leftover.

• IN-05, IN-06: Roll Call looks at the slowly-developing race to replace Mike Pence in the 6th. Most (if not all) the action is on the GOP side so far, with former Wayne Co. Sheriff Matt Strittmatter the only one with a campaign account open so far (which contains $39K). Other GOPers include 1990s-era ex. Rep. David McIntosh, Henry County Council president Nate LaMar, ’10 Senate primary loser Don Bates, and ’10 IN-05 primary loser Luke Messer… but it sounds like Messer, who almost beat the unloved Dan Burton, may be running in the 5th again, seeing as how Roll Call got Burton’s office to confirm that Burton (frequent subject of retirement speculation) plans to run for re-election. One other wrinkle: Republican redistricting efforts to redden Joe Donnelly’s IN-02 may wind up making IN-06 less Republican, so that might encourage Dems to at least consider playing in the 6th.

• MT-AL: With Montana’s at-large House seat suddenly looking like it’s on track to be an open seat, we may actually get some decent Democratic candidates in the race. It’s occasionally been a competitive seat, currently at R+7, though not really hotly contested since the last time it was open, in 2000. Democratic State Rep. Franke Wilmer of Bozeman is already floating her name for the race. (If she won, she’d be the first woman in the seat since the legendary Jeannette Rankin.)

• SD-AL: Now this is interesting: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (haven’t heard anything about a rematch, but this might perk up her ears) is actually leading a hypothetical rematch by one point (46-45) against new Republican Rep. Kristi Noem, according to PPP. PPP points out that she lost by three in 2010, so that small shift is consistent with the small nationwide bump upwards for the Dems over the last month or two. Herseth Sandlin’s favorables are 55/36, compared with Noem’s 38/35 approvals. Over on the Senate side, Tim Johnson (who isn’t up until 2014) is at 47/41 approval.

• LA-AG: We’ve seen a couple dozen legislative party-switchers from the Democrats to the Republicans in southern states in the last few months, in the wake of several states’ chambers finally completing their realignment all the way down to the state level, but nobody at a statewide level doing so… until now. Louisiana AG Buddy Caldwell, facing a potentially tough general election, plans to switch to Republican status. (I’d invoke the cautionary specter of Parker Griffith, but Louisiana uses a jungle primary so switching to a potentially tough primary instead may not be the kiss of death.) Since Caldwell was already the only Democratic AG who had joined the multi-state lawsuit against healthcare reform, his “Democrat” status was pretty negligible at this point.

• MA-St. House: This may be one of the largest constituencies where I’ve seen a race end in a tie (although I’m sure someone in the comments can come up with a historic example of an even bigger race that tied). The November election in Massachusetts’s 6th Worcester district in the state House was just declared a tie by a superior court judge, and (rather than flipping a coin, drawing lots, or sending them to Thunderdome) a do-over special election was ordered. Democratic incumbent Geraldo Alicea and GOPer Peter Durant both got 6,587 votes. No date has been set yet, but we’ll all be on pins and needles that night, seeing as how Dems control that chamber by only a 128-31 margin.

• CA-Referenda: A statewide special election is planned for some point in June, as Jerry Brown seeks a public mandate for extending increases in three different taxes (and he seems to think he has a better shot getting this through a public vote than the legislature). This is likely to be an entirely vote-by-mail affair, presaging a potential California shift in the direction of its west coast brethren. Somewhat counterintuitively (since vote-by-mail is usually considered to boost Dems), though, observers think this might skew the election toward older, whiter voters, as mail delivery is “unreliable in spots” (?!?) in heavily-minority Los Angeles County and voters there still tend to rely heavily on polling places. On the plus side, though, a recent PPIC poll found more support for extending the taxes among the 55+ set (56 yes/38 no) than among the entire population (where there was 50 yes/48 no support). Have the most seriously tax-hating seniors all fled to Arizona?

• Fundraising: The Fix has a bunch more Senate fundraising numbers to report, building on the numbers we gave you yesterday. For the Dems, Bob Casey Jr. seems to be fully engaged with his race, pulling in $621K in Q4 for $1.3 million CoH, while the publicity surrounding FiliBernie seems to have been a big cash cow for Bernie Sanders, who raised $485K for $536K CoH. Bob Menendez raised $237K for $2.4 million CoH, while freshly-elected Joe Manchin seemed to take a breather from fundraising, raising only $18K for $377K. Among not just vulnerable Republicans but basically everybody else in the Senate, Scott Brown is still the unstoppable money machine, in terms of both cash raised and CoH: $734K raised for $7.2 million CoH. Richard Lugar raised $173K for $2.35 million CoH, while Olympia Snowe raised $79K for $1.2 million CoH.

• Census: We’re still waiting for this week’s released of detailed 2010 data for Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia, but the Census Bureau is letting us know that next week they’ll be out with four more: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland.

• WATN?: Rod Grams somehow managed to be one of the least memorable Senators of my lifetime who managed to serve a full term (surprisingly swept in in Minnesota in 1994, easily turned out in 2000), and now he’s working a job that seems befitting his anonymity. He’s working as a Hill staffer, and not even on the Senate side: he’s the new chief of staff to new MN-08 Rep. Chip Cravaack. (Recall that Cravaack did what Grams couldn’t do in 2006: knock off Jim Oberstar, in what was a strange comeback attempt by Grams.)

AK-Sen: It’s not every day you see an incumbent agreeing to debate a primary challenger, but Sen. Lisa Murkowski has done just that. She’ll meet Joe Miller for three debates in the middle of August, just before the primary on the 24th.

CT-Sen: This Politico story reminds me of that scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail where, amidst the Black Plague, the peasant exhorts everyone to “Bring out yer dead!” and dump them on his cart. One not-quite victim protests, “But I’m not dead yet!” So, too, the Rob Simmons campaign. A whole bunch of people – including Rob Simmons himself – plan on voting for Simmons in the August 10th primary. But it’s pretty clear that hope indeed seems to be the plan here, since Simmons still isn’t campaigning and seems to just be praying for an unlikely win. At least it’s a better system of governance than strange women lyin’ in ponds distributin’ swords.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is pulling the trigger on a special legislative session in which he’ll ask lawmakers to add a constitutional amendment to the November ballot which would allow voters to ban offshore drilling. The Miami Herald notes that Crist didn’t lay any groundwork for this special session with state House leaders, meaning he could potentially get negged here. But even that could redound to Crist’s benefit, as he’d be able to campaign against the legislature’s failure to give the people a voice on this pressing issue.

KY-Sen: It’s like John Galt forgot the fact that his motors still had to be delivered along public roads: Rand Paul is taking heat from local officials on account of his distaste for using federal money for drug treatment programs. Note that we aren’t talking about the “war on drugs” here, but money used to treat addicts – which Paul says should come from local sources. But the people who actually have to deal with the problem say that Paul doesn’t understand how important federal dollars are for these programs. Not really surprising, given Rand Paul Math:

When tax money flows to the nation’s capitol, half stays there, half is wasted and half of it goes to political cronyism, Paul said.

LA-Sen: David Vitter got a somewhat-prominent primary challenger at the very last minute: retired LA Supreme Court Judge Chet Traylor. There’s also at least one other Some Dude in the race. If for some reason Vitter can’t get 50% in the primary – which is not until August 28th – then he’d have to deal with a runoff on October 2nd, barely a month before the general. Also interestingly, Republican state Rep. Ernest Wooton qualified for the race, too – as an independent. This might be a rare bit of good news for Charlie Melancon. (H/t Darth Jeff.)

NV-Sen: At the state GOP convention, Sharron Angle expressed her support for the party’s platform – a wonderfully nutty document, as Jon Ralston points out, that touts its opposition to a “one-world government.” Angle was later seen leaving the convention on a black helicopter. Meanwhile, President Obama just did a fundraiser for Harry Reid late last week, which apparently raised $800K.

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene won’t face any charges regarding the $10,440 filing fee he paid to run for senate, or over whether he misrepresented his finances when he asked for a public defender after being charged with a crime (showing an obscene photo) last fall. It turns out that Greene really did pull together the scratch himself, mostly from his Army exit pay and a hefty tax refund. It’s not how I would have spent my last ten thousand bucks, but to each his own.

SD-Sen: With zero opponents on the ballot – not even a Some Dude independent – John Thune is shuttering his campaign team. While it’s always painful to see a Republican senate seat go completely uncontested like this, I wonder if this might not be for the best in terms of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s re-election chances. At the very least, it means that Thune won’t be out there stumping on the campaign trail – and won’t provide an attractive top-of-the-ticket draw in November. While it’s probably unprovable, I know a lot of folks here feel that Dick Lugar’s lack of an opponent probably helped us win three house races in Indiana in 2006, a sentiment I tend to share.

WI-Sen: Cute: Zillionaire teabagger Ron Johnson had previously criticized President Obama for pushing BP to set up a fund to pay out claims for damage their oil spill has caused. It turns out that Johnson owns at least $116,000 worth of BP stock. Johnson laughably tried to point out that Wisconsin’s public employee pension fund also invests in BP – and that Russ Feingold is a member of that fund (he was a state legislator before being elected to Congress). Srsly?

WV-Sen: It looks like that statement is no longer operative. On Friday, Gov. Joe Manchin told Politico’s Ben Smith that he would “declare his intentions about a Senate run Monday.” The next day, though, he informed Politico’s Jonathan Martin that he’s going to hold off until two things happen: first, he wants the state legislature (called back for a special session) to clarify the law on special election to replace Sen. Robert Byrd. Second, he wants to name an interim office-holder. Manchin also said that the special session will be held this Thursday at noon. (And in an odd aside, Manchin – who seems all but certain to run for Byrd’s seat – just became head of the National Governors Association.)

AL-Gov: This is probably too late to help much, but term-limited Gov. Bob Riley is endorsing former college chancellor Bradley Byrne in tomorrow’s runoff against state Rep. Robert Bentley. Still, Bentley seems to be in the better position. Despite being something of a dark horse in the first round, Bentley has apparently done a good job of consolidating conservatives, and internal polling has generally showed him in the lead.

AL-02: It’s not like we can love Bobby Bright – but we probably can credit him with running a good campaign. Republican Martha Roby is trying to paint herself as a champion against illegal immigration, but as Politico points out, in past battles on the subject, Bright took a harder line than Roby did. As Alex Isenstadt says, “It’s the newest iteration of a recurring challenge for Roby’s campaign: How do you run to the right of a Democrat who’s been squarely on the conservative end of his party since even before he was elected?” Roby still has a runoff fight tomorrow with Rick “The Barber” Barber.

CA-11: David Harmer, running against Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney, pulled in more than $400K last quarter.

FL-25: Marili Cancio, running against establishment favorite David Rivera in the GOP primary, accused him of “repeat domestic violence” on her Facebook page. There have been some rumors circulating about a potential story here (you can Google for more).

LA-02: State Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, who lost a runoff to then-Rep. Bill Jefferson in 2006, will not seek to challenge Rep. Joe Cao. This leaves state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta as Cao’s most likely opponents. I’m actually a bit surprised that more big names didn’t get into the race, given how tempting a target Cao seems to be.

MI-13: The Detroit Free Press takes a look at the field challenging Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the Dem primary – and points out that Kilpatrick, who only took in 39% in the 2008 primary – doesn’t even have a website. The Freep thinks her two toughest challengers are state Sen. Hansen Clarke and businessman John Broad, while three other Some Dudes round out the field. No one has raised very much, and even Kilpatrick has only $300K on hand. But she may yet benefit from a split field for the second cycle in a row, much like Jean Schmidt.

NM-02: Handsome Harry Teague raised some $320K in Q2 and has $1.2 mil in the bank.

NY-14: Reshma Saujani is claiming that Carolyn Maloney agreed to a debate – but Maloney’s camp says no such thing ever happened. Given Maloney’s consistent stance of refusing to credit Saujani in any way, I have a very hard time believing anything Saujani’s team says about this. And meanwhile, the Washington Post has a pretty puffy profile of Saujani, which if nothing else confirms that she truly is the candidate of the banksters.

NY-18: Self-funding venture capitalist Paul Wasserman has dropped his bid to take on Rep. Nita Lowey in this suburban New York district. Westchester County Republicans are now instead backing 2008 nominee Jim Russell, who has a decidedly less-gaudy campaign warchest ($5,000).

Fundraising: A couple of memos – which were probably designed to be leaked – are now circulating which detail Democratic fears that they will be outspent by conservative interest groups this fall. What I don’t get is why every cycle, people always act like one side outspending the other is some kind of big surprise. New 527s come and go all the time, and it’s not like big Dem or GOP donors all of a sudden forget every January that, hey, there’s an election on! Maybe we should look into this newfangled 527 thing? This stuff is cyclical, and the fact that we’re getting our asses kicked in 2010 is not really news. But if memos like these spook a few rich Dems into opening their wallets, then okay.

Polltopia: Or more like poll dystopia. Media Matters has a distressing piece on McClatchy’s decision to stop polling altogether as part of a budget cutback. (They had previously done about a dozen polls a year with Ipsos.) The piece also details how many, many other news organizations, particularly local newspapers, have also pared down or eliminated their polling in recent years. I know there are far worse problems in the world, but as far as Swingnuts are concerned, this is very, very sad and unfortunate.

• AZ-Sen: Maybe she was scared off by that R2K poll that had her down more than 20-odd points? Nan Stockholm Walden, a wealthy attorney and businesswoman who had been the subject of DSCC interest as a candidate in Arizona, decided not to run. That gives Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman a pretty clear path to the nomination (assuming he runs; he’s still in exploratory mode).

• CT-Sen: Did you know that Linda McMahon actually held (until now) a political position, in addition to, of course, all the important work she does at WWE? She was on Connecticut’s Board of Education (an appointed position, courtesy of Jodi Rell), but just resigned from that role. She says that there are too many restrictions on political activities by board members for her to be able to remain in that position, as she tries to get the GOP Senate nomination.

• SD-Sen: John Thune may have dodged having to run against a Democrat in November, but he won’t be running purely unopposed. He’s still facing off against an independent, perennial candidate Kurt Evans.

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: I had no idea that St. Norbert was the patron saint of fucked-up polls. A poll from Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College is tilted even further in the Republican direction than recent offerings from Rasmussen and the decidedly conservative Wisconsin Policy Research Institute. They find Russ Feingold losing to Tommy Thompson 45-33 (with 14% for an independent/third party, whoever that might be), and beating Generic R by only 40-37. Their gubernatorial numbers find Tom Barrett losing to Scott Walker 44-28 and to Mark Neumann 43-29. Even the GOP primary numbers seem screwy, with underdog Neumann almost even with Walker, who leads 24-23.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman rummaged around in her purse and found another $20 million to throw on the table, bringing her personal contributions to the race up to a whopping $59 million. Despite her big lead over Steve Poizner in the primary, she may need to prepare to shore things up, as Poizner has been telegraphing that he’s going to start going hard at her on the hot-button issue of immigration, in a last-ditch effort to get the state’s right-wingers to pay some attention to him.

• GA-12: There were some poorly sourced rumors yesterday that Rep. John Barrow — a conservadem in a swing district facing a primary challenge and the ire of a large swath of his African-American constituency after his HCR “no” vote — was going to switch parties. Barrow now says he was never even contemplating that, though.

• KS-03: After the Kansas City Star reported last week that Stephene Moore was going to run to replace her husband, Dennis, in the 3rd, she started acting coy about it (despite insider assurances that it was a done deal). As expected, though, today she made it official, filing a glaring hole in this R+3 open seat.

• LA-03: It looks like the NRCC is finally getting a top-tier participant in the open seat race in the 3rd (despite that winning it won’t be much of a prize, as the 3rd is poised to vaporize in 2012 redistricting). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer says he’ll announce his candidacy very soon. Probably the surest indication that Downer is serious is that state Rep. Nickie Monica, who may have been the strongest GOPer in the field to date, now says he’s getting out of the race to make way for Downer. With attorney Ravi Sangisetty the only Dem willing to stick his neck out for this one, this one’s pretty thoroughly in the GOP column.

• MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark has been putting up some monster fundraising numbers against Michele Bachmann this cycle; I guess that’s what happens when you run against one of the nation’s top lightning rods for teh crazy. She pulled in $505K last quarter, bringing her to $1.1 million in total receipts this cycle. Unfortunately, Clark (or her primary opponent Maureen Reed, who’s also raised well but hasn’t released Q1 numbers yet) will likely have to contend with the presence of spoiler Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson. Anderson pulled in 10% of the vote in 2008 (while Elwyn Tinklenberg lost by only 3%), and he’s seeking the IP’s endorsement again.

• NH-01: RNC committee member Sean Mahoney made a big show out of resigning his post, ostensibly out of disgust with the Michael Steele administration and its free-spending, strip-clubbing ways. Speculation, though, is that Mahoney is planning to run in the GOP primary in the 1st (where Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is considered frontrunner, although so-so fundraising has diminished his luster a bit), which would require him to resign anyway. Mahoney isn’t promising anything on that front yet, though.

• NY-29: The Democrats have literally chosen Some Dude as their standard bearer in the 29th. The party chairs in the eight counties in the district issued a statement where they said they’ve chosen a consensus nominee to replace Eric Massa in the special election that may or may not happen. However, they neglected to actually say who that candidate might be. We’ll know the masked man’s identity next week.

• TN-03: A Huck divided against itself cannot stand? In a prime example of one hand not knowing what the other is doing, HuckPAC (Mike Huckabee’s national financial arm) and Team Huck Tennessee (the local grassroots operation) are endorsing different candidates in the GOP primary in the 3rd. Team Huck is endorsing former state GOP chair Robin Smith, while HuckPAC (and presumably, Huckabee himself) is going with attorney Chuck Fleischmann.

• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron had another fine fundraising quarter as he tries to keep this open seat in Democratic hands; he pulled in $490K last quarter, leaving him with more than $1 million cash on hand. It’s not an expensive district, media-wise, but he has some strong fundraising competition from humble gospel-singing farmer agribusiness mogul Stephen Fincher, who pulled in over $300K himself and is sitting on $820K CoH.

• PA-St. Sen.: As if the Pennsylvania legislature couldn’t be held in any lower esteem, here’s another fresh scandal. Luckily, this one seems to be falling on the Republican side of the aisle: state Sen. Jane Orie, the body’s third-ranking GOPer, was just accused by a grand jury of repeatedly using her staff for political campaigns on the state’s dime (include the campaign of her sister, state Supreme Court justice Joan Orie Melvin). Charges are expected, but Orie is shrugging it off, saying it’s a politically motivated smear by Democratic Allegheny Co. DA Stephen Zappala.

• Filings: The filing deadline in Missouri has passed, on March 30. Rep. Roy Blunt wound up with (count ’em) 10 Republican primary opponents in the Senate race, although state Sen. Chuck Purgason seems the only one worth paying attention to. The number of GOPers vying to take on Ike Skelton in MO-04 also reached the double digits. Probably the biggest surprise and disappointment was in MO-09: not that the DCCC would likely have strongly contested this district that they barely lost in 2008 when it was open, but not a single Democrat showed up to run in this race.

• Teabaggers: Here’s a nice catch from Ruy Teixeira: teabagging is about as popular as socialism. In slightly-differently-worded questions from two different 2010 polls, Gallup found that 37% had a favorable opinion of “the Tea Party movement” (including 14% of Democrats), while 36% had a positive image of “socialism” (including 17% of Republicans?!?).

Welcome to the workin’ week!

FL-Sen: Rudy & Rubio, together at last. Giuliani will become the latest johnny-come-lately to endorse Marco.

GA-Sen: Johnny Isakson, who had been hospitalized twice in one week, is now back home.

KY-Sen: Weirdo Rand Paul is launching a 1,000-point ad buy (that’s big) attacking Trey Grayson as a pro-bailout insider too cozy with DC. The primary is about six weeks away. On the Dem side, The Lexington Herald-Leader reviewed state records and found that Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has spent four times as much taxpayer money on travel, hotels and meals as AG Jack Conway. Mongiardo has also racked up expenses for the security detail that travels with him (Conway doesn’t have security).

NV-Sen: Jon Ralston says that federal investigators are looking to nail John Ensign for “structuring,” which is “a broad term that refers to the crime of creating financial transactions to evade reporting requirements.” Ensign, you’ll recall, had his parents give a $96,000 “gift” to his mistress instead of reporting it as a severance payment. The DoJ is moving very methodically, though, ever-mindful of the wretchedly botched prosecution of ex-Sen. Ted Stevens (which was thrown out on appeal due to prosecutorial misconduct.)

SD-Sen: Ugh. Not only did no Democrats file to run against John Thune, but he’s become the first senator in South Dakota history to run without major-party opposition. My advice to John Thune: Save your $6 million warchest for a 2012 presidential run.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett and his Republican challengers faced off in a debate last Friday, which saw Bennett defend earmarks and get attacked for supporting an individual mandate to buy health insurance. The GOP state convention, which will choose a nominee, is May 8th.

AL-Gov: Hah – Artur Davis, fresh off his vote against healthcare reform, is now pushing a petition on his website attacking Alabama state legislators who voted to “obstruct” the new bill.

IA-Gov: Republican pollster Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies has a survey of the Iowa gubernatorial race, showing Terry Branstand crushing incumbent Dem Chet Culver 50 to 34. Culver leads Bob Vander Plaats 40-39 and Rod Roberts 38-32. It’s unclear to me whether Magellan was polling for fun or if this was on behalf of a client.

MA-Gov: Politico has a piece describing the extraordinary efforts Obama’s political team is making to help Gov. Deval Patrick win re-election. Patrick has visited the White House half a dozen times over the past year, and he’s the only office-seeker so far (other than Harry Reid) to have a fundraiser headlined by the president himself.

PA-Gov: The Philadelphia Daily News obtained an interesting strategy memo penned by the campaign of Dem Dan Onorato. Apparently, Onorato was prepared to challenge the signatures of opponents Joe Hoeffel and Anthony Williams. However, since Hoeffel didn’t move to challenge Williams’ signatures, Onorato’s campaign apparently decided it was better to leave both of them alone, figuring it would be better to have two candidates from the Philly region in the race rather than one. (Onorato hails from Western PA.)

UT-Gov: Salt Lake County Mayor and Dem gubernatorial candidate Peter Corroon says he raised more than $360,000 since the start of the year. No word yet on GOP Gov. Gary Herbert’s haul.

AL-03: Dems found someone to replace Josh Segall on the ballot at the last minute: Montgomery native Steve Segrest, who lost to GOPer Kay Ivey in the Treasurer’s race in 2006. Segrest comes from a political family: His father served in the Alabama House and his grandfather, Napoleon Broward, was elected governor… of Florida… in 1905. In some other Alabama news, state Sen. Jim Preuitt, who had long been on the outs with the Democrats, switched parties to the GOP.

FL-08: GOP Bruce O’Donoghue says he raised $300K since joining the race, and has a similar amount on hand. O’Donoghue’s camp says that this sum does not include any self-donations.

NH-01, NH-02: Dem Ann McLane Kuster, seeking Paul Hodes’ open seat in NH-02, says she raised $285K in Q1, and apparently has made a record haul from New Hampshire residents. Supposedly Katrina Swett will announce a bigger haul, but no numbers yet. Meanwhile, GOPer Frank Guinta, running in NH-01, supposedly raised $250K, including $100K of his own money. (Guinta’s fundraising had been pretty sucky prior to this.)

NY-19: The Republican field to take on Dem Rep. John Hall still seems very unsettled. Ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth has gotten a lot of love from the NRCC, but a broad swath of the GOP establishment in the 19th CD doesn’t seem to feel similarly, and she faces several strong opponents. One of them, former Pentagon analyst Kristia Cavere, says she raised $200K in Q1 & will soon convert her exploratory committee into the real thing. Meanwhile, ex-Tuxedo Mayor David McFadden says he’s raised about $100K. He also says that if he doesn’t win the party’s nomination at the May convention, he’ll drop out.

PA-07: Dem Bryan Lentz is challenging the validity of GOP opponent Pat Meehan’s signatures. As we noted previously, Lentz is also questioning the impartiality of the investigator, which happens to be Republican AG Tom Corbett’s office. Lentz now has a new arrow in his quiver: Some of the same people who circulated petitions for Meehan also did so for Corbett. Even better, it looks like some local GOP leaders may have signed false affidavits saying they personally gathered signatures, even though others may have actually carried the petitions.

SD-AL: Physician Kevin Weiland had planned to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary after she voted “no” on healthcare. But Weiland pulled out at the last minute, after receiving calls from Steny Hoyer, and Chris Van Hollen. He also spoke with Herseth Sandlin herself, and reportedly “negotiated an assurance from Herseth Sandlin that she would reconnect with her Democratic base in South Dakota and never vote for a repeal of the health care plan.” Doesn’t sound like much. He also apparently cheesed off one-time Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand, who declined to run himself but worked overtime to help Weiland gather signatures (he only had a week in which to do it) to qualify for the ballot.

TN-06: Another veteran is entering this open-seat race on the Democratic side. Brett Carter, an attorney and TN National Guardsman who served in Iraq, joins Marine Capt. Ben Leming in the Dem field.

TN-08: Things are really starting to get hot in the GOP primary in Tennessee’s 8th CD. The Republican establishment isn’t just stumping for agribusiness magnate Steve Fincher – they’re actively attacking his opposition. Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, whose trip to Fincher’s district we noted in an earlier digest, slammed physician Ron Kirkland for allegedly being wobbly on the healthcare reform bill and for his past support of Democrats. (Kirkland previously said he liked most of what was in the bill, except for the public option – and when he was chair of the American Medical Group Association when they made donations to Max Baucus.) Kirkland is no random teabagger pushover, which is why he’s drawing fire. This could be an unusually interesting primary.

TX-17: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the two Republicans in a run-off for the privilege of facing Dem Chet Edwards in the fall: 2008 nominee Rob Curnock and oil exec Bill Flores. Here’s an interesting detail: Flores voted in the Democratic presidential primary in 2008, supposedly “casting his ballot against Barack Obama.” That’s some cute spin, but if he voted for Hillary Clinton (he won’t say), I don’t really see how that helps him. But in any event, Flores outraised Curnock by a huge margin, $214K to $16K, in newly-filed pre-runoff FEC reports.

WA-03: Ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D) says he raised $350K in the first quarter (including $150K of his own money), leaving him with $530K on hand.

Census: There’s a bill pending in both houses of the NY state legislature that would require counting prison inmates as part of their home communities, rather than upstate, where most prisons are located. Given how dysfunctional the lege is, though, there’s no telling if this badly-needed reform will actually see the light of day.

Fundraising: GOP bigs are hitting the trail on behalf of their brethren during the congressional recess. John Boehner is helping Californians Mary Bono Mack and Ken Calvert, Pete Sessions is helping Illinoisans Randy Hultgren and Adam Kinzinger, and a bunch of other top Republicans are also putting their backs into things.

Redistricting: Former DCCC nat’l field director Casey O’Shea will replace Brian Smoot as head of the National Democratic Redistricting Trust. Smoot is leaving to head up the DSCC’s independent expenditure arm. (And O’Shea and Smoot are consulting partners.)

WATN: Dede Scozzafava says she’s working on a memoir about last year’s special election race. Can’t wait to read it! She also says she’s unsure about whether she’ll seek reelection to her seat in the Assembly this year.

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{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Best I can tell, there are five 2010 U.S. Senate races that still don’t have a Democratic candidate.

State	Republican Incumbent	Filing Deadline
Alaska	Lisa Murkowski	June 1
Georgia	Johnny Isakson	April 30
Idaho	Mike Crapo	March 19
Oklahoma	Tom Coburn	June 9
South Dakota	John Thune	March 30

It should be unacceptable to not run a candidate.  For Party building and grassroots organizing, for holding the Republican incumbent accountable, and for the rare occasion when we catch lightning in a bottle, there should not be a race for U.S. Senate that doesn’t feature a Democratic option on the ballot.

Of the five, the soonest deadlines are Idaho (March 19 – this Friday!) and South Dakota (March 30 – two weeks from today).  While no race should go unchallenged, these two would be among our most uphill of challenges.  In 2008, of course a very Democratic-friendly year, the Democratic nominee in Idaho, a former Congressman, could only achieve 34% on Election Day.  (Note that Idaho is, technically, not without a Democratic candidate.  Attorney William Bryk has said that he will seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Idaho.  The one hang-up: he lives in Brooklyn, New York.  He simply believes that no race should go unchallenged and doesn’t think that the Idaho Democratic Party will field a candidate.  Though Idaho law states that a candidate need only be a resident of the state by the day of the general election, obviously no out-of-state candidate will be taken seriously.)  Further, John Thune enjoys significant popularity in South Dakota, without any recent murmurs of Democratic challengers.  While seemingly unlikely at this point, I hope Democratic candidates of some substance emerge in these two states.

The next two deadlines on the list – Georgia (April 30) and Alaska (June 1) – would be the most unforgivable of the five if Democrats were unable to find credible challengers.  Georgia is a state where Democrats can surprise Republican incumbents.  Recall the 2008 election in which Democrat Jim Martin entered the race relatively late, won a crowded primary, and forced incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss to a run-off by holding him under 50% on Election Day.  On top of that, the 2010 Republican incumbent, freshman backbencher Johnny Isakson, has poor approval numbers.  Public Policy Polling recently put Isakson’s numbers at 36% approve, 38% disapprove.  Less than a year ago, a hypothetical match-up by Research 2000 between Isakson and Democratic former Governor Roy Barnes showed a statistical dead heat.  Isakson can be beaten.  Georgia has Democrats strong enough to take on and defeat Isakson.  Currently, the Democratic primary for Governor is crowded, though former Governor Barnes has comfortably led the pack.  Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker has been running second to Barnes in the primary pack.  Also in the Democratic scrum is David Poythress.  Poythress hasn’t been able to get traction with primary voters to climb out of single digits in any poll, but he brings with him an outstanding resume of service to Georgia: an Air Force veteran, a former Georgia Secretary of State, a former State Labor Commissioner, and a former Adjutant General leading Georgia’s National Guard, having been elected statewide multiple times and appointed to office by Governors of both Parties.  If either Baker or Poythress switched gears from a gubernatorial bid to a Senate bid, either could sew up the nomination and offer Isakson an extremely tough race.  Baker is running strongly enough in some primary polls that it would be unlikely that he’d switch gears; but, Poythress – again, unable to climb out of single digits in the Democratic primary against Barnes and Baker – might be more amenable to a switch from a likely-fruitless gubernatorial bid to a high profile, winnable Senate campaign.

In Alaska, incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski apparently enjoys higher approval among her constituents than Isakson does among his.  Nevertheless, Murkowski is beatable.  In recent years, the Alaska Republican Party has become synonymous with corruption.  The blowback from this Alaska GOP Culture of Corruption culminated with the 2008 dethroning of Ted Stevens.  And Murkowski herself has been touched by considerable controversy of her own.  You may recall that she started off on the wrong foot when she won her job courtesy of nepotism.  Her dad, Frank, appointed her to his old seat when he became Governor.  (Thanks in part to this nepotism, Frank was himself kicked out of office courtesy of a primary loss to small town Mayor Sarah Palin.)  Since then, Murkowski dipped her toe into the Alaska GOP Corruption pool when she took part in a sweetheart land deal, purchasing prime property at well below market value from, of all people, one of Ted Stevens’ corporate cronies – only selling back the land at the discount price for which she received it once the media caught wind of the shenanigans.  Murkowski’s shady dealings earned her a spot in the 2007 edition (in PDF) of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington’s annual “most corrupt members of Congress” list.  Alaska Dems have about two and a half months to secure a credible challenger.  Please share your thoughts on a potential strong recruit in the comments.

Finally, Oklahoma (June 9), like Idaho earlier on this list, had a 2008 Democratic Senate nominee who enjoyed substantial charisma and a solid message, but was unable to crack 40%.  No doubt, Oklahoma would be a similarly uphill race for any Democrat.  Even popular Democratic Governor Brad Henry trailed Republican incumbent Tom Coburn by double digits in a 2009 hypothetical match-up by Public Policy Polling.  Still, as always, not finding any Democratic candidate of substance to run is political malpractice.

Of the five U.S. Senate races still seeking a credible Democratic candidate, two are not only potentially competitive but truly winnable with the right candidate.  Your thoughts?  Do you have a preferred candidate in Georgia or Alaska (or the other three states)?  Do you have a preferred course of action – a movement to urge/persuade/beg David Poythress to switch races or a draft effort in Alaska?  Share in the comments!

A whopping eight months since my last Senate roundup, I figured it was high time to survey the landscape again. Overall, things have gotten significantly better for the Republicans in the last year, though not nearly as overwhelmingly so as the drama-prone national media might have you believe.

A continued Democratic majority in the Senate is all but assured after November (and is still quite likely in the House as well). The probable range, IMO, is a Democratic caucus in the 112th Senate of between 54 seats at the low end and 58 seats at the high end.

Read a race-by-race analysis (with pretty maps) below the fold…

This is the playing field in 2010: Democratic open seats in North Dakota, Connecticut, and Delaware; Republican open seats in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Kansas. And here is my (early) results projection:

I am fairly certain of Republican pickups in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Nevada at this time, while the true tossup races for now are in Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Delaware, and New Hampshire. The Democrats remain very slight favorites to hold Illinois and Pennsylvania, and the Republicans retain edges in Florida, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

As always, seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping:

1. North Dakota (open) – Byron Dorgan (D) retiring after 3 terms

Outlook: Very Likely Republican pickup

Dorgan’s retirement is indeed a huge blow to the Democrats, though perhaps canceled out by Dodd’s bowing out in Connecticut. Gov. John Hoeven (R) is in and will almost certainly be the junior Senator from North Dakota.

2. Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D) seeking third term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

Lincoln’s numbers are getting uglier against all opponents (the best she does is an eight-point deficit) and show no signs of recovering. Barring an eleventh-hour miracle, her Senate career is over, it seems.

3. Nevada – Harry Reid (D) seeking fifth term

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

Reid has such a fundraising advantage and some time left to up his approval ratings, but few longtime incumbents recover from these dismal numbers. Many Democrats are probably quietly hoping that Reid “pulls a Dodd” in the next few months.

4. Colorado – Michael Bennet (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup

Bennet faces a tough challenge in the Democratic primary from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and neither candidate seems secure against ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or any of the other Republican prospects. The Democrats definitely have a good chance to hold this seat, with neither candidate carrying much prior baggage, but I sense that this race will go however the national climate goes, and at this moment, that means it will go to the GOP.

5. Delaware (open) – Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Tossup

I know that most polls have shown longtime Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), but I for one am fairly convinced this race will tighten and the trends go Biden’s way once he declares and the state’s Democrats start “coming home.” Interestingly, Castle will be 71 years old on election day, to Biden’s 41, so there will likely be a noticeable contrast in tone and style between these two highly familiar candidates.

6. Missouri (open) – Kit Bond (R) retiring after four terms

Outlook: Tossup

Polls here have been close but consistent, with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) barely ahead of Rep. Roy Blunt (R), always within the margin of error. Still, considering the GOP-friendly trends elsewhere during the last several months, this seems a promising sign for the Show Me State Democrats. For now, this is the Dems’ best opportunity for a pickup.

6. Ohio (open) – George Voinovich (R) retiring after two terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Even with nationwide Republican advances of late, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has never built a convincing lead against either Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). Fisher is favored to win the primary, and at the point I expect the race to become a tossup. If the election were today, Portman would win.

7. New Hampshire (open) – Judd Gregg (R) retiring after three terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) has a slight lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) — grain-of-salt-worthy pollster ARG has her ahead 43-36, hardly a game-ending advantage. Like Ohio, Hodes should close the gap over the spring and summer, and if he doesn’t, we should be worried.

8. Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (D) seeking sixth term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

Specter is in for a close fight (if he makes it to the general election) against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), the hardline conservative who nearly unseated him in the GOP primary back in 2004. In the meantime, Rep. Joe Sestak is giving Specter reason to watch his left flank. But Specter has been careful to compile a fairly progressive record since switching parties last spring, and my own prediction is that this gives him a clear edge for the nomination. At that point, disaffected Democrats and moderate-minded Independents will gradually line up behind the incumbent in big enough numbers to carry him to victory over Toomey, especially if the winds shift back to the Dems over the summer.

9. Illinois (open) – Roland Burris (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

The polls have been unclear about who has the advantage in a race between Republican Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while (due to name recognition) Kirk polls well ahead of lesser-known Dems David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson. Considering the state’s recent history, it’s hard to imagine Kirk winning on any but an exceptionally fortunate night for the GOP.

10. Florida (open) – George LeMieux (R) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

Gov. Charlie Crist has long been the favorite for this seat in a general election, as his cross-partisan popularity remains high, but his biggest problem will be winning the GOP primary against conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. If Rubio beats Crist, as many now expect (though his momentum could always stall), expect a competitive and expensive race between Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

11. North Carolina – Richard Burr (R) seeking second term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

I’ve been surprised by the sporadic polling in this race. Burr faces a reputable challenger in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), even if this is a Southern state in a GOP-leaning election cycle. Burr is far from universally popular or even universally recognized, but for now the DSCC clearly has to prioritize defense.

12. Kentucky (open) – Jim Bunning (R) retiring after 2 terms

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

The Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway has been nasty, while “small government conservative” Rand Paul has by several accounts taken the upper hand in the GOP primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the establishment choice. Considering Kentucky’s traditional balance of social conservatism with economic liberalism, Paul would seem an unorthodox general election choice, but polls show he would do well against the Democrats. Definitely a primary to watch, even if either Republican is clearly favored in November.

Just below competitive:

– California for the Democrats (Boxer clearly ahead of Carly Fiorina, but not quite out of the woods)

– Gillibrand (New York B) for the Democrats (against anyone but Rep. Peter King, who might keep the race competitive, Gillibrand should win easily, assuming she wins the primary)

– Louisiana for the Republicans (Vitter leads Rep. Charlie Melancon, but his personal issues make it hard for me to rate him as “safe”)

The Democrats should be fine in Connecticut (Blumenthal trouncing Simmons/McMahon/Schiff), as should the Republicans in Kansas (either Tiahrt or Moran). Meanwhile, Republican incumbents seem solid (in the general election, at least) in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah. Democratic incumbents should win without trouble in Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

• AR-Sen: State Sen. Kim Hendren got some early attention as the first entrant in the GOP field to take on Blanche Lincoln, but a few feet-in-mouth later, he doesn’t seem to be taken seriously much anymore. He seems to be trying to fix that by loaning himself $200K for his campaign.

• AZ-Sen: A new poll from Republican pollster the Tarrance Group (paid for by Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, presumably on John McCain’s behalf, as it also did anti-J.D. Hayworth message testing) shows McCain faring much better in a potential Republican primary against ex-Rep. Hayworth than a Rasmussen poll did last month; they have McCain beating Hayworth 56-36, and with a 78/20 favorable. Also, Grant Woods, a former Arizona Attorney General (and more significantly, a former McCain chief of staff) filed an FEC complaint against Hayworth, accusing him of using his talk radio bullhorn to promote his potential candidacy.

• CO-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is facing something of a teabagger deficit, having been ordained as the GOP establishment’s candidate. But she’s trying to make up for that with some red meat that pleasantly surprised members of the hard right she was appearing in front of: she advocated eliminating the Dept. of Education. (Actually, maybe that should be described as green meat, considering how long that moldy idea has been sitting on the shelf. Ask President Bob Dole how that one went over.)

• CT-Sen: Ralph Nader reiterated his interest to the Princeton University newspaper (his alma mater) in running as a Green in the Connecticut race, saying he’s encouraged by the nation’s anti-incumbent mood. The netroots’ other least favorite person, Joe Lieberman, is heading the opposite direction: aware that any hope of winning a Democratic nomination in 2012 vaporized this week, he’s now making noises about seeking the Republican nomination instead. One other 2010 note: Barack Obama plans to appear on NBC’s “WWE Tribute to the Troops” special to deliver a tombstone piledriver to Linda McMahon. Ooops, actually, it looks like he’s just delivering a holiday message to the troops.

• IL-Sen: It looks like all that pandering to the right wing is finally paying off for Rep. Mark Kirk; he got $5,000 from the Koch Industries PAC (Koch is one of the biggest funders of the right, including of operations like Freedom Works and the Cato Institute). It also got him a brief bit of praise from Sarah Palin via Twitter, after months of tugging at her sleeve for help. Erick Erickson still isn’t buying what Kirk is selling, though, saying in his usual understated manner that Kirk “will knife [conservatives] in the chest with a smile once he gets to D.C.”

• NV-Sen: This ought to just further rev up right-wingers who view former state GOP chair and former Miss New Jersey Sue Lowden as a RINO in the making. Turns out she claimed to be pro-choice when representing a Dem-leaning state Senate seat in the 1990s, while today she’s claiming Roe v. Wade is a “bad decision.” One more flip-flop that’ll have to be dealt with, just like her previous support of Harry Reid.

• NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper had been making noises about a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand for many months, but apparently a face-to-face meeting with her was more than satisfactory to him, and he came out of it with an effusive endorsement of Gillibrand instead. And while we discussed the possibility of a William Thompson primary yesterday on the front page, there were also some other numbers from yesterday’s Siena and Quinnipiac polls. Quinnipiac tested out Rudy Giuliani numbers, and found that on the off chance he runs, he’d beat both Gillibrand (50-40) and Thompson (52-36). Siena went with a whole bunch of permutations, finding Gillibrand losing to Giuliani 49-42, but beating ex-Gov. George Pataki (46-43) and Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman (52-22). Thompson loses to both Giuliani (56-34) and Pataki (49-36) but beats Blakeman (40-23). They even tried out an improbable-looking GOP primary, finding Giuliani at 57 and Pataki at 26, followed by ex-state Sen. Michael Balboni at 7, Liz Feld at 6, and Blakeman at 4.

• SD-Sen: John Thune can consider himself safe for next year. He beats a Generic Dem 56-33 (fitting, since no one is running against him yet), and has approvals of 57/35. The only cloud on his horizon is that his constituents don’t want him to run for President, by a 28/55 margin.

• FL-Gov: Rasmussen threw in a Florida gubernatorial race general election question to their Senate race sample (which leads to the question: are there going to be Meek/Crist and Meek/Rubio numbers forthcoming?). They find that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a small lead over Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 44-39, but that Sink has more room to grow (24% have no opinion of Sink vs. 16% for McCollum).

• KS-Gov: That didn’t last long: the Kansas Dems thought they finally had a decent gubernatorial candidate in retired businessman Tom Wiggans, but he just ended his infant campaign. He cited trouble fundraising, although recent bad press about a settlement by his pharmaceutical company probably helped prompt his move too.

• NY-Gov: That same Quinnipiac sample also took a look at the New York Governor’s race, finding a la Siena, that the resurrection of David Paterson (from DOA to slightly less DOA) continues apace. They find Paterson beating Republican ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 41-37, and with an approval of 40/49 and favorable of 38/44. Paterson shouldn’t break out the champagne, though, as he still loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo, 60-23, and Cuomo goes on to beat Lazio 62-22.

• CT-05: The former occupant of the 5th, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson, endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to try and take the seat back for the GOP. The awkward part is, Caligiuri’s primary opponent Justin Bernier is still touting Johnson’s endorsement of him too. Johnson said that she did in fact back Bernier — up until the moment Caligiuri (her 2002 campaign co-chair) got into the race.

• FL-08: I’m a little confused here, because it seemed like the GOP was desperately casting about for any sort of elected official to go up against Rep. Alan Grayson for a long time, and finally settled on businessman Bruce O’Donoghue… but now that all that sturm and drang is over, state Rep. Kurt Kelly says he’s likely to get into the race against Grayson. Kelly’s name rarely appeared on the list of potential candidates, leaving me to wonder why the NRCC didn’t express any interest in him and whether they’ll continue to back O’Donoghue here.

• HI-01: Hawaii may try something new in the wake of the realization that it doesn’t have the money to hold a special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Elections officer Kevin Cronin says that he can’t fight that feeling anymore that Hawaii may have to follow the lead of the northwestern states and conduct an all mail-in ballot. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Ed Case isn’t wasting any time; he’s already hitting the airwaves with his first TV spot.

• KS-03: Despite party efforts to coalesce behind state Sen. Nick Jordan, we’ve definitely got a contested GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. State Rep. Kevin Yoder confirmed he’s getting into the race.

• MD-01: What is this, the 80s? The NRCC is actually pulling out the “soft on crime” card as they road-test different lines of attack on freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil. Kratovil made his name as the Queen Anne’s County state’s attorney (and escaped previous “soft on crime” attacks last year in his first matchup against state Sen. Andy Harris), so they’re trying to hit him on his strengths.

• NJ-07: One swing district with a freshman GOPer where the Dems have had no luck filling out their dance card is the wealthy suburban 7th. Without an elected officials interested in the race, Dems are looking at cumbersome-named Dem fundraiser Zenon Christodolou to go up against Rep. Leonard Lance.

• NY-23: A month after the fact, we finally have our official count from the special election in the 23rd (hence our finally calling our predictions contest!). Bill Owens got 73,137 votes (48.3%) to 69,553 (46.0%) for Doug Hoffman and 8,582 (5.7%) for Dede Scozzafava; the final count brought Hoffman a little closer.

• NC-08: With a lot of liberals feeling burned by freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s voting record since getting into the House, there’s actually talk of a primary challenge happening. Chris Kouri, who ran for the seat in 2002 and surprised a better-known Dem in the primary before losing the general to Robin Hayes, is being courted by some in the district for another run. Kouri is the general counsel for the Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

• PA-06: State Rep. Curt Schroder got an endorsement from a once-prominent conservative, ex-Rep. Bob Walker, a key Newt Gingrich henchman back in the day as well as an Elmer Fudd lookalike. Walker used to represent part of Chester County, much of which was contained in the 16th under the 1990s map. That didn’t deter one more no-name Republican from getting in the already-crammed field: geologist Walt Hufford, who sits on the board of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council and plans to run as a moderate.

• TN-01: Get ready for Roe v. Davis, part III. Ex-Rep. David Davis, narrowly beaten by Rep. Phil Roe in a GOP primary in this dark-red district in 2008, says to Politico that he’s “strongly leaning” toward another matchup.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy has a slight problem that could hurt him in his GOP primary in the open seat race to succeed Bart Gordon: in the 1990-2002 time period, he voted in six Democratic primaries (Tennessee voters can crossover in primaries) and only two GOP primaries. Of course, Tracy offers the defense that, in that part of the state, there was nothing to vote for but Democrats back then, but that’s more grist for the teabagger mill as other candidates (like Lou Ann Zelenik) seek to woo the hard right.

• Retirements: A little more followup on the retirements front, in the wake of our front-page post yesterday: Rick Boucher and Allen Boyd have now confirmed with party leaders that they, too, will be back for re-election next year. (No surprise on Boyd, as he’s already hitting the airwaves in his primary fight.) Lincoln Davis also reaffirmed his commitment, saying he’s “running come hell or high water,” and also saying he’s not worried about the specter of GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, saying he can’t be put “in any more conservative district.” (SSP’s crack team of redistricters may disagree with him on that one!)

• House: Nancy Pelosi seems to be getting fed up with the Senate in many ways, and one smart way she’s fighting back is saying that the House won’t be going first on the tough votes anymore, and that she’ll act on potentially divisive issues like EFCA and immigration reform only after the Senate has hashed it out. She has to be concerned with shielding her most vulnerable members from voting on tough votes like HCR and cap and trade only to see the legislation head into purgatory in the Senate.

• CT-Sen: Joe Biden is stopping by Connecticut yet again to fill up Chris Dodd’s coffers with a fundraising event tomorrow. This comes against a backdrop of increasing questions from the press of whether or not Dodd will be retiring (or getting pushed out the door by the party)… suggesting the beginning of the same self-fulfilling downward spiral that dragged down Jim Bunning, who’d similarly worn down his welcome on the other side of the aisle.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio is making a strange ploy here, when the substance of his previous campaign has all been more-conservative-than-thou. He now says he would have accepted stimulus funds, had he been governor. Maybe he’s already thinking ahead to how he’ll have to moderate things, once he’s in the general?

• IL-Sen: With the Illinois primary fast-approaching, believe it or not, Alexi Giannoulias is hitting his cash stash to already go on the air with a second TV spot, again focusing on his jobs-saving efforts. On the GOP side, it looks like Rep. Mark Kirk‘s frequent flip-flopping is starting to catch the attention of the legacy media; the Sun-Times and AP are taking notice of his new McCain-ish attempts to harp on earmarks despite his own earmark-friendly past.

• NV-Sen: Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, recently cleared on corruption charges, had previously said that he wouldn’t seek to challenge Harry Reid in the Senate race. Now sources are saying Krolicki is, in fact, “interested.” It’s unclear whether Krolicki sustained an unfixable amount of damage as a result of the charges, though, or what sort of space he could seek to carve out in the already overcrowded GOP primary field.

• SD-Sen: You might recall a while back we noted that Matt McGovern, a clean energy activist, was considering a run to follow in his grandfather George’s footsteps in the Senate. Today he declined a run, leaving the Democrats without any candidate to go up against John Thune next year.

• TX-Sen: South Carolina’s Jim DeMint, increasingly the go-to guy for right-wing kingmaking, issued his fourth endorsement in a Senate primary, although this is the primary that may or may not ever happen. He gave his imprimatur to Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, who’s been a darling of the rightosphere but who’s polled in the single-digits in the few polls of the special election field.

• MN-Gov: Here’s a fundraising boost to state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, who has lots of behind-the-scenes support in her DFL gubernatorial bid but a big name rec deficit against names like former Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. She secured an EMILY’s List endorsement, giving her a nationwide base to tap into.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford may have dodged his final bullet, allowing him to serve out his last year in ignominious peace. A 7-member state House Judiciary subcommittee voted 6-1 against impeachment and instead unanimously for censure. The matter still goes before the full Judiciary committee, but they seem unlikely to reverse course.

• Governors: PPP has one of their frequent good observations: of the nation’s governors who have the worst approval ratings, most of them are ineligible or not planning to run for re-election in 2010 (Baldacci, Doyle, Perdue, Rendell, Schwarzenegger). The three who are running for re-election next year are all likely casualties in their own primaries (Brewer, Gibbons, and Paterson).

• FL-12: Outgoing Rep. Adam Putnam, who’s leaving his job to run for Florida’s Ag Commissioner, has given his endorsement to former state Rep. Dennis Ross to replace him. It’s something of a formality, with no other major GOPers in the race, but should help keep anyone else from last-minute gate-crasing.

• IL-10: Lots of endorsements in the 10th. On the GOP side, state Rep. Beth Coulson got the endorsement of moderate ex-Gov. Jim Edgar, the state’s only recent ex-Gov who’s still on the right side of the law. For the Dems, Dan Seals got the endorsement of the powerful New Trier Township Democrats, while state Rep. Julie Hamos was endorsed by Citizen Action.

• IL-14: Recent dropout Mark Vargas finally confirmed that he’ll be pulling his name off the ballot, leaving only the two biggest names. This comes as a relief to the camp of state Sen. Randy Hultgren, who were worried that name of Vargas (who endorsed Ethan Hastert) would stay on the ballot to split the anti-Hastert vote.

• LA-03: Wondering why no one prominent is leaping at the chance to fill the open seat left behind by Charlie Melancon? They know what we redistricting nerds at SSP already know… that seat is likely to vaporize in 2012, leaving any victory a short-lived booby prize. No elected officials of either party have thrown their hat in yet; attorney Ravi Sangisetty and oil field manager Kristian Magar are the only Dem and GOPer, respectively, who’ve gotten in.

• MN-07: Long-time Rep. Collin Peterson says he won’t decide until February on whether to run for re-election (although he has filed his paperwork to run). That may have a few hearts skipping a beat at the DCCC, where a Peterson retirement would leave another GOP-leaning rural seat to defend — but Peterson says a late decision on sticking around is always standard operating procedure for him.

• NY-19: An initially generic Roll Call profile of Nan Hayworth, the moderate, wealthy ophthalmologist who’s the last GOPer left to go up against Rep. John Hall after more conservative and polarizing Assemblyman Greg Ball dropped out, has some interesting dirt buried deep in the article. They say that county-level party officials aren’t necessarily behind her, that there are three other (unnamed) persons interested in running, and there’s still a movement afoot in the district to get Ball back in the race.

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi, the underdog gaining steam in the Dem primary in the 6th, got an endorsement from a key moderate in the Pennsylvania delegation: the 10th district’s Chris Carney. Doug Pike got his own Congressional endorsement too, although from a little further afield: from Massachusetts’s Niki Tsongas. There are also rumors of a third potential Dem entrant to complicate matters: Lower Merion Township Commissioner Brian Gordon (not to be confused with his commission-mate Scott Zelov, who’s now considering a run on the GOP side).

• TN-08: State Rep. Jimmy Naifeh confirmed that he won’t run in a Democratic primary against state Sen. Roy Herron to take over retiring Rep. John Tanner’s seat. Naifeh, the House speaker for 18 years, is a legendary figure in Tennessee politics and would have posed a big challenge to Herron. Meanwhile, in a sign of their optimism, the NRCC bumped their farmer/gospel singer candidate, Stephen Fincher, up a slot in their three-tiered “Young Guns” program, from “On the Radar” up to “Contender.”

• VA-02, VA-05: The two top contenders in the GOP primary in the 2nd have already had one big proxy fight, backing different candidates in the Dec. 5 primary for an open, dark-red state Senate seat in Virginia Beach. Auto dealer Scott Rigell apparently won the skirmish, backing Jeff McWaters, who defeated Virginia Beach city councilor Rosemary Wilson, who was backed by businessman Ben Loyola. Loyola is running to the right of Rigell (who contributed to Barack Obama last year). Meanwhile, in the 2nd and the 5th, the GOP is faced with the same decision that often bedevils them: pick a nominee by primary election, party canvass, or party convention? With state Sen. Rob Hurt a strong general election contender in the 5th but generating suspicions among the base (for voting for Mark Warner’s tax hike), and with activist-dominated conventions often yielding unelectable candidates (see Gilmore, Jim), the decision can affect the GOP’s general election chances in each one.

• WA-01: Spunky Microserf rides to the rescue, against an entrenched, well-liked suburban Representative… on behalf of the GOP? That’s what’s up in the 1st, where never-before-elected Microsoft veteran James Watkins will go up against Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee, who’s had little trouble holding down the Dem-leaning district.

• NY-Comptroller: The New York Post (so keep the salt shaker handy) is reporting that ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer is still interested in a return to politics, and is looking seriously at the Comptroller’s race. It seemed up in the air as to whether he’d run in the Democratic primary against appointed incumbent Tom DiNapoli (also under reported primary threat from William Thompson) or as an independent.

• GA-St. Sen.: A famous family name is looking to get back into Georgia politics. Jimmy Carter’s grandson, 34-year-old attorney Jason Carter, is looking to run in the upcoming special election in the 42nd Senate district, a reliably Democratic area in western DeKalb County where current Senator David Adelman is resigning to become Ambassador to Singapore. Interestingly, Carter may run into trouble with the district’s large Jewish population, where his grandfather’s name has lost some of its luster because of his pronouncements on the Israel/Palestine saga.

• Mayors: In what seems like an astonishingly fast recount, state Sen. Kasim Reed was confirmed as victor in the Atlanta mayoral race. He defeated city councilor Mary Norwood by 714 votes, losing a grand total of one vote from the original count. Norwood has now conceded.

• House: Here’s a concept from the 70s we don’t hear much about anymore: the “misery index.” But Republican pollster POS dusted off the idea, looking at 13 “change” midterm elections where the average Election Day misery index (unemployment plus inflation) was 10.1, and in which the average loss among the White House party was 26 seats. They point out that today’s misery index is 10.02 (although, assuming unemployment declines over the next year, so too will the misery index).

• Redistricting: Moves are afoot in two different states to make the redistricting process fairer. In Illinois, a statewide petition drive is underway to take redistricting out of hands of the legislature and give it to an independent commission. And in Florida, as we’ve discussed before, two initiatives are on their way to the ballot that would require districts to be compact and not take partisanship into account. The GOP-held legislature is challenging them, however, in the state Supreme Court; part of their argument is that this runs afoul of the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision on “crossover” districts in Bartlett v. Strickland.

• Volunteering: Marriage/partnership equality campaigns in three states are looking for help down the home stretch. The best part is, you don’t even have to leave your chair – all three organizations are looking for folks to make calls to help get out the vote. So if you’d like to help, follow the links for Maine, Washington state, and Kalamazoo, Michigan. The folks in Kalamazoo are also looking for in-person volunteers – click here if you are in the area. (D)

• CT-Sen: With Joe Lieberman back to his usual self-promoting mavericky ways, vis a vis the public option, and with the netroots worked up into a lather, it’s a perfect time for Ned Lamont to step back into the spotlight. The 2006 Democratic primary winner attacked Lieberman’s statements, although he sounded interested but noncommital about the idea of a 2012 rematch.

• FL-Sen: Here’s another sign that the Charlie Crist camp is starting to take the Marco Rubio threat more seriously. They’ve launched an anti-Rubio website, TruthAboutRubio.com.

• KS-Sen: Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe endorsed Rep. Todd Tiahrt in the GOP primary in the open seat Senate race in Kansas. Inhofe seems to be the first sitting senator to endorse Tiahrt (although Rick Santorum already did); several senators (John McCain, John Thune, and Inhofe’s colleague Tom Coburn) have already endorsed the less hardline Rep. Jerry Moran.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Niki Tsongas (the only woman in the Massachusetts House delegation) endorsed AG Martha Coakley in the Dem primary for the upcoming Senate special election. It’s Coakley’s first endorsement from a House member; four other House members have gotten behind Rep. Michael Capuano.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall has another poll of the Pennsylvania races out, and like a lot of other pollsters, they’re finding that people aren’t very enthused about Arlen Specter, and are getting even less enthusiastic, giving him a 28/46 favorable (down from 35/42 in August), and a 23/66 reading on the “deserves re-election” question. Specter currently leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey 33-31 (down from 37-29 in August), and beats Rep. Joe Sestak in the Dem primary 30-18 (down from 37-11). Sestak loses to Toomey, 28-20. F&M also look at the gubernatorial primaries (no general matchups, though). AG Tom Corbett leads on the GOP side over Rep. Jim Gerlach, 30-8, while the Dem field plays out: 10 for Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, 9 from Auditor Jack Wagner, 6 for ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel, 3 for Tom Knox, and 3 for Scranton mayor Chris Doherty.

• SD-Sen: Democrats may turn to an old family name for a Senate candidate against John Thune: Mark McGovern, the 37-year-old grandson of former Senator and presidential candidate George McGovern. McGovern is state director for Repower America, a clean energy advocacy group, and was state director for the 2008 Obama campaign.

• CT-Gov: The campaign for Democratic SoS Susan Bysiewicz is making references to an internal poll that has her trailing by only 6 to the once-thought-unassailable Jodi Rell in 2010, 47-41. (And that assumes Rell runs — given her fundraising, and now the possibility of a hard race, she may not be on track to do so.) The poll also finds Bysiewicz overperforming Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (who loses to Rell 52-31), and beating Malloy in the primary, 44-12.

• SC-Gov: An impeachment resolution against Mark Sanford was introduced today by Republican state Rep. Greg Dellenny during the brief special session. However, fellow Republican speaker Bobby Harrell ruled it out of order, as outside the scope of the special session. It’ll have to wait until January.

• VA-Gov (pdf): Looks like we’ll have to wait another day (and probably a lot longer than that) for signs of life in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Virginia Commonwealth issued their first poll of the race, giving Bob McDonnell a 54-36 edge over Creigh Deeds (51-33 without leaners pushed). Rasmussen chimes in with similar numbers at 54-41 for McDonnell (finding a spreading McDonnell lead like most pollsters; two weeks ago they had it at 50-43). Pollster.com‘s regression line has the overall total moving today to the exact same result: 54-41.

• TX-Gov: Maybe this falls under the category of an endorsement you don’t really want to tout, but Kay Bailey Hutchison needs every vote she can get in what looks like a tight GOP primary with incumbent Gov. Rick Perry. KBH secured the endorsement of Dick Cheney today.

• CA-19: I’m still not sure what conservative Rep. George Radanovich did to wrong the local GOP, but the hunt goes on for an even more conservative Republican to challenge him in the primary. One possible challenger is former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, who’s looking for a new political gig. (Patterson ran for Congress in 2002 in then-new CA-21, losing the GOP primary to Devin Nunes.) Patterson may also be interested in replacing termed-out Mike Villines in the state Assembly.

• FL-08: Buried in a longer Politico piece titled, appropriately, “Rivals shy away from Alan Grayson” are three more potential Republican challengers: first-term state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, attorney Will McBride (who lost the 2006 Senate primary to Katherine Harris), and businessman Bruce O’Donoghue. O’Donoghue, who’s close to Mel Martinez, sounds like the likeliest of those three to run.

• NY-23: Big money continues to flow into the 23rd on the pro-Bill Owens side, with another $245K from the DCCC, and $200K from the AFSCME. MoveOn.org has also started flogging this race in its fundraising e-mails, saying that it’s a chance to rebuke the Palin/teabagger wing of the GOPers. Meanwhile, Doug Hoffman continues to rack up the endorsements from people that no one in the 23rd has ever heard of: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, and even Oklahoma House candidate Kevin Calvey and California Senate candidate Chuck DeVore. RNC chair Michael Steele is still standing by Dede Scozzafava, though.

• TN-09: It looks like former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton may self-destruct before Rep. Steve Cohen even lays into him in the Dem primary in the 9th. Herenton is reportedly the target of a criminal probe by the local US Attorney’s office focusing on “personal business transactions” during his time as mayor. Herenton, naturally, is calling the investigation politically-motivated.

• VA-02: Here’s a screwup for Ben Loyola, one of the Republicans jostling to take on freshman Dem Rep. Glenn Nye and one who made a big self-funding impact last quarter. Loyola may have low-balled estimates of the value of a division of his company that he sold to a Swedish firm, at best a disclosure violation in terms of reporting his net worth, and at worst an illegal campaign contribution.

• EMILY’s List: EMILY’s List added four Democratic House members to its list of endorsees. Three are swing-district freshmen (Debbie Halvorson, Ann Kirkpatrick, and Dina Titus), and the other one is the perpetually shaky Carol Shea-Porter.

• WA-Init: A slew of polls out of Washington yesterday and today, containing good news. UW’s Washington Poll finds that R-71 (a referendum in favor of expanded domestic partnership) is passing 57-38, while I-1033 (the latest TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is failing 40-49. These numbers are confirmed by SurveyUSA, which finds R-71 passing 50-43, and I-1033 going down 38-50. The Washington Poll also looks at the King County Executive race, which (though ostensibly nonpartisan) sees Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine beating Republican former news anchor Susan Hutchison 47-34 — they don’t have trendlines, and the only comparison point is SurveyUSA, who last showed Hutchison with a surprising 47-42 lead, so this one still bears watching. The Washington Poll finds Joe Mallahan leading Mike McGinn in the Seattle mayor’s race, 44-36.

• Census: An independent analysis of the effect of the proposed David Vitter legislation that would only count U.S. citizens for purposes of reapportionment finds a very different looking House. California post-2010 would lose five House seats, and Texas would gain only one House seat (instead of the projected three). The proposed change would also spare Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania the expected loss of one seat each. (The study is worth a look also because it projects which states gain and lose seats according to normal rules, and also looks at which metro areas are experiencing ‘brain drain.’)

• NY-20 (pdf): This morning’s official tally from the BoE gives Scott Murphy a whopping lead of 268. This new number reflects the addition of all the remaining absentees from Columbia County, where Murphy performed well on Election Day and apparently even better among absentees. There are still 1,200 absentee ballots that haven’t been counted because they were subject to challenge; they’ll be reviewed starting Monday.

Jim Tedisco isn’t waiting around for those ballots, though; he’s already asking the courts to declare him the victor. Wait… what? Isn’t he the one who’s behind? (The Tedisco camp has tried to clarify that they were re-filing a motion that they filed on Election Day, to also have Tedisco declared the winner, as some sort of ‘insurance policy.’ OK, that makes me feel much better.)

• CA-10: BigDust broke the story yesterday in diaries: Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, seeing his gubernatorial campaign sputtering and lured by the siren call of a term-limits-free job, has more-or-less confirmed that the rumors are true and he’s jumping into the 10th District special election, where state senator Mark DeSaulnier had already nailed down the ‘establishment’ candidate mantle. (Unlike other frequent job-hopper Tom McClintock, Garamendi actually has the advantage of living in the district.)

• KY-Sen, SD-Sen: The message can’t get much clearer than this. Mitch McConnell is hosting a fundraiser in the state of Kentucky for his fellow senator… John Thune? That’s right; McConnell would rather help a guy from South Dakota defending a safe seat than help his fellow Kentuckian Jim Bunning, who has already been complaining about how McConnell is sucking up all the fundraising oxygen in the state.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd may have raised a million bucks last quarter, but only five donors were from his home state of Connecticut. And before you can say “But what about donations below $200 which don’t require detailed disclosure?”, we’ll just point out that Dodd took in under $2,300 total from that category of donors. Sigh. (D)

On the plus side for Dodd, he got a hearty endorsement and a promise of future help from someone a little more popular than him: Barack Obama. “Chris is going through a rough patch,” says Obama.

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes raised $225K this quarter, which doesn’t seem like a whole lot, does it? (D)

• NJ-Gov: Governor Jon Corzine, facing a tough re-election, has another problem: his gross income last year was negative $2.75 million. You’ve got to assume that his overall net worth (once estimated at $300 million) has taken a much, much larger hit, so that calls into question his willingness, if not ability, to moneybomb the race as he did with his last two runs for office.

• TX-Gov: I never thought I’d have to say this out loud, but Governor Rick Perry may not have a winning issue on his hands when he makes veiled secession threats. A Rasmussen snap-poll finds that 75% of Texans would prefer to remain a part of the USA. 18% prefer secession, and 7% just aren’t sure. Not coincidentally, a similar percentage of the Texas state senate (71%) just voted, 22-9, to ignore Perry and accept the $550 million in federal stimulus money to keep their state unemployment trust fund from going broke.

• Words: Here’s a fun time-suck: a website that lets you create a word cloud for most-used words in a particular day, week, month, or year in the Congressional Record, or for a particular lawmaker.