Author: Nathaniel90

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

Previous diary on Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland

Previous diary on Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota

The rest below the fold…

Mississippi

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and Senate, Dem House)

Is that important? Nope

The legislature is engaged in moderately high-stakes drama over legislative redistricting, which must be done before the state’s qualifying deadline later this spring. Congressional remapping will, by contrast, be quite simple, with a plan that expands Bennie Thompson’s 2nd to pick up as many majority-black areas as possible and protects newbie GOP incumbents Alan Nunnelee in the north and Steven Palazzo in the south.

Missouri

Districts: 8 (down from 9 in 2002)

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)

Is that important? Yes

I have long expected the legislature — which has almost enough Republicans to override a veto by Gov. Jay Nixon — to dismantle Russ Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis 3rd District and split it up between Lacy Clay’s 1st, Todd Akin’s 2nd, and Jo Ann Emerson’s 8th, since Clay’s district must expand and the two Republicans are safe enough to accommodate a few new Democratic voters. However, renewed chatter about Akin running for the Senate against Claire McCaskill is muddying things a bit. With a 6-2 map feasible — all major areas of Democratic strength concentrated into the 1st and the Kansas City-based 5th — it’s hard to believe Republicans won’t go for it, but it may be too early to declare Carnahan odd man out after all. If Akin does seek a promotion to the Capitol’s north side, the legislature will still probably draw a less hospitable seat for Carnahan, to make that 6-2 split plausible.

Nebraska

Districts: 3

Who’s in charge? Republicans (de facto; legislature is officially nonpartisan)

Is that important? I suppose

Jeff Fortenberry’s Lincoln-area 1st and Lee Terry’s Omaha-based 2nd will contract in area to accommodate the slow-growing rural 3rd, but that is the height of drama here. The only notable thing about Nebraska’s congressional districts in 2012 is that electoral votes will probably no longer be apportioned by CD, denying Obama that Omaha electoral vote he won in 2008.

Nevada

Districts: 4 (up from 3 in 2002)

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor, Dem Legislature)

Is that important? Very

Here we have a very ambitious legislature that would love to carve up Nevada as never before, with one rural/suburban Republican vote-sink for Joe Heck and three Dem-leaning seats (two in Las Vegas and environs, one stretching from Reno down to northern Clark County). The congressional delegation is deeply in flux, with Dean Heller running for the Senate, Shelley Berkley contemplating a Senate bid, and a new seat being added that will almost certainly lean Democratic. I have to assume Gov. Brian Sandoval will veto any plan that does not preserve two Republican seats, one in the north where Heller used to be and one for Heck, but with state Treasurer Kate Marshall considering a run for the 2nd, even that former stipulation is up in the air. The upside here will be for the Democrats, regardless.

New Hampshire

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)

Is that important? Not a bit

New Hampshire’s congressional districts really haven’t changed much in living memory, simply trading towns based on Census figures every ten years. The GOP legislature may try to draw very friendly lines for itself, but as we saw in the last decade, New Hampshire politics functions as a series of tidal wave pendulum swings, if I may mix metaphors. Independents are unpredictable and fickle, and tend to break hard against one party or the other.

As with Texas, it’s possible that I’m using circa-2008 estimates rather than real 2010 Census figures, but given the accuracy of past approximations I doubt the district lines would look terribly different if I drew them using real Census data. I did this so election stats could be included.

Basically, the Republicans can draw up to a 9-4 map in North Carolina, should everything go right and as long as they don’t mind drawing lines even uglier than the Democrats drew ten years ago.

Read below the fold…

This map would protect Renee Ellmers and target Larry Kissell, Brad Miller, and Heath Shuler for defeat. Patrick McHenry would have to accept some new Democrats in Asheville, as would Sue Myrick in Charlotte and Howard Coble in Greensboro.

Here it is in all its revolting glory:

District 1 (brown) – G.K. Butterfield (D)

Demographics: 48% black, 45% white

2008 Vote: Obama 62-37

Geography: western coastal plain

Unfortunately, I did not see an easy way to get the black % over 50, though I might have missed something obvious. In any case, it is still VRA-protected and still heavily Democratic.

District 2 (green) – Renee Ellmers (R)

Demographics: 66% white, 21% black

2008 Vote: McCain 54-45

Geography: clockwise from Danville to Raleigh to Fayetteville

In most states this would be an unusually ugly district, but to create a 9-4 GOP map in 50-50 North Carolina took some seriously unaesthetic boundaries. Compared to the 6th, 12th, and 13th, this one isn’t even so bad, and it should be effective at reelecting Ellmers even against a reasonably strong Democrat (remember, 54-45 McCain is equivalent to roughly 60-39 Bush in 2004).

District 3 (purple) – Walter Jones (R)

Demographics: 76% white, 16% black

2008 Vote: McCain 61-38

Geography: eastern coastal plain, barrier islands

Not much changed, and still a strong GOP seat. I thought about diluting this one to hurt Mike McIntyre, but there are enough Democrats in Fayetteville and Wilmington that it was not practical to crack his seat along with Kissell’s in the southern part of the state.

District 4 (red) – David Price (D)

Demographics: 51% white, 30% black

2008 Vote: Obama 74-25

Geography: Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill

A compact Democratic vote-sink, meant to help Renee Ellmers and hurt Brad Miller. Likely one of the most liberal seats in the South under this map.

District 5 (yellow) – Virginia Foxx (R)

Demographics: 81% white, 10% black

2008 Vote: McCain 59-40

Geography: Appalachians and Piedmont Triad

This remains the most Republican of the western seats, and Foxx should have no trouble getting reelected for the rest of the decade.

District 6 (turquoise) – Howard Coble (R)

Demographics: 73% white, 15% black

2008 Vote: McCain 54-45

Geography: Kannapolis, Greensboro, Durham

Talk about a meandering district! This one is “gerrymandered” to be GOP-leaning but not the GOP vote sink that it has been in the 2000s. It sheds strong GOP areas near Greensboro to the 13th and those in the south to the 8th.

District 7 (grey) – Mike McIntyre (D)

Demographics: 57% white, 27% black

2008 Vote: Obama 54-45

Geography: Fayetteville, Lumberton, Wilmington

Not quite a Democratic vote-sink, but a reasonably Dem-leaning seat in the south, ceding its Republican areas to the 8th. I figure that if GOP mapmakers see that they must choose between saving Kissell or McIntyre, they will pick McIntyre due to his 8-term seniority and the loose cannon tendencies of likely candidate Ilario Pantano. In a particularly Republican year they might pick this one up anyway, and especially aggressive party folk have not yet conceded that they can’t unhinge both Kissell and McIntyre.

District 8 (lavender) – Larry Kissell (D)

Demographics: 66% white, 21% black

2008 Vote: McCain 54-46

Geography: Charlotte, High Point, Fayetteville

I wanted to make sure Kissell would lose, and thus did just about everything possible to add Republican areas to a district that, flanked by Charlotte and Fayetteville, really shouldn’t be Republican. Now his district is every bit as conservative as Myrick’s to the west.

District 9 (cyan) – Sue Myrick (R)

Demographics: 78% white, 12% black

2008 Vote: McCain 54-46

Geography: Charlotte, Gastonia

Myrick hopefully won’t mind giving up some conservative turf in her fast-growing district to help her party defeat Kissell.

District 10 (fuchsia) – Patrick McHenry (R)

Demographics: 82% white, 10% black

2008 Vote: McCain 58-41

Geography: Asheville, Hickory, Gastonia

McHenry splits liberal Asheville with Shuler to hurt the latter’s reelection prospects. He should still be plenty safe, however.

District 11 (light green) – Heath Shuler (D)

Demographics: 89% white, 4% black

2008 Vote: McCain 55-44

Geography: Appalachians and Asheville

Cracking Asheville moved this district several points in the Republican direction, perhaps enough so to derail Shuler; though he’s proven resilient until now, remember that 55-44 McCain is equivalent to a Bush ’04 % in the low 60s.

District 12 (white) – Mel Watt (D)

Demographics: 47% black, 36% white

2008 Vote: Obama 72-28

Geography: meanders from Winston-Salem and Greensboro down to Charlotte

It seems impossible to draw a black-majority seat in North Carolina anymore, but this one is decidedly VRA-protected and now arguably not even the ugliest district in the state (the 6th is worse, I think).

District 13 (peach) – Brad Miller (D)

Demographics: 76% white, 14% black

2008 Vote: McCain 53-46

Geography: Greensboro, Raleigh, northern border

Turnabout is fair play, and Miller’s gerrymander will now be turned against him as his most reliable Democratic voters are soaked up by Price’s 4th and Coble’s 6th. Again, 53-46 is not a huge spread but Obama ’08 may have been a relative high watermark. Miller’s liberal reputation will not serve him well either.

In sum, Kissell and Miller should be toast, and I doubt Shuler could make it with a divided Asheville. While a lawsuit is inevitable, I doubt the courts would intervene; precedent says that lines can be ugly as long as they are not racial gerrymanders.  

Now that Dave has uploaded Census data for Texas, I thought I’d give one of the most interesting states this decade a go on his website. There are ups and downs re: the realism of this map. Of the four new seats, I made one new heavily Democratic VRA seat in Dallas-Fort Worth meant to elect an Hispanic (though that % is still under 60), one competitive South Texas seat that is majority but not safely Hispanic (again, under 60%), and overwhelmingly Republican seats in north Houston and — not sure how to describe this region — between Weatherford/Fort Worth in the north and Killeen in the south. As for protecting Republican incumbents, the new GOP Houston seat made it harder for me to help Mike McCaul, whose district barely voted for McCain, and the Hispanic boom in San Antonio can only hurt Quico Canseco (though a better mapmaker than I could have split the difference with Lamar Smith to help Canseco’s reelection chances). But overall, this is a decent map. Take a look below the fold…

RURAL EAST TEXAS: 3 Republicans

District 1 (brown)

Representative: Louie Gohmert (R)

Areas: Tyler, East

Demographics: 70% white

2008 Vote: McCain 69-31

Gohmert stays safe and this seat barely changes.

District 4 (red)

Representative: Ralph Hall (R)

Areas: Rockwall, Texarkana

Demographics: 80% white

2008 Vote: McCain 69-30

Sheds some suburban population but remains similarly situated.

District 8 (lavender)

Representative: Kevin Brady (R)

Areas: Montgomery County, Southeast

Demographics: 80% white

2008 Vote: McCain 74-25

The most densely populated spots in Montgomery County are ceded to the new District 35 in northwest Houston, but this district’s general shape stays the same. It remains among the wealthiest and most Republican seats in the state.

HOUSTON AND SOUTHEAST: 5 Republicans, 3 Democrats

District 2 (green)

Representative: Ted Poe (R)

Areas: Humble, Port Arthur

Demographics: 63% white

2008 Vote: McCain 57-42

Cedes parts of Jefferson County to Ron Paul and northern Harris County to the new District 35.

District 7 (gray)

Representative: John Culberson (R)

Areas: west Houston

Demographics: 67% white

2008 Vote: McCain 57-42

Contracts a bit in area and moves slightly south and east, but stays fairly Republican for near-downtown Houston.

District 9 (turquoise)

Representative: Al Green (D)

Areas: south Houston, north Fort Bend

Demographics: 39% black, 33% Hispanic, 17% white

2008 Vote: Obama 78-22

Surprisingly, I was able to keep black pluralities both here and in District 18 despite the Hispanic population explosion of the last decade.

District 14 (olive)

Representative: Ron Paul (R)

Areas: Galveston, Lake Jackson

Demographics: 65% white

2008 Vote: McCain 63-36

Paul’s district shrinks and becomes even more coastal but stays securely Republican. It still amazes me that a downright libertarian continues to get elected in military-heavy country like southeast Texas.

District 18 (yellow)

Representative: Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

Areas: central Houston

Demographics: 44% black, 34% Hispanic, 17% white

2008 Vote: Obama 80-19

The most Democratic district in Texas remains so, changing only to accommodate population growth.

District 22 (brown)

Representative: Pete Olson (R)

Areas: Sugar Land, Missouri City, Pasadena

Demographics: 57% white (20% Hispanic, 13% Asian – future VRA seat?)

2008 Vote: McCain 58-42

Welcome to the district most likely to become majority-minority during the 2010s. Tom DeLay’s old turf remains Republican enough — slightly more so than the state at large, in fact — but in 2021 we are probably looking at a new VRA district right here.

District 29 (light green)

Representative: Gene Green (D)

Areas: east Houston

Demographics: 69% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 63-37

Green has managed 20 years as an Anglo Congressman for Houston’s Hispanic-majority district, but as the Latino population reaches South Texas levels, can he withstand a primary challenge? Given his seniority, most think so, but GOP mapmakers may try to concentrate Hispanics previously represented by Sheila Jackson Lee or Al Green to mess with him.

District 35 (purple)

Representative: TBD

Areas: northwest Houston, Conroe, south-central

Demographics: 72% white

2008 Vote: McCain 67-33

I made this district too Republican, at the expenses of Mike McCaul, John Culberson, and Ted Poe. A professional gerrymanderer could do better. Regardless, legislators will make a safe GOP seat in north Houston.

DALLAS-FORT WORTH: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats

District 3 (fuchsia-purple)

Representative: Sam Johnson (R)

Areas: Plano

Demographics: 76% white

2008 Vote: McCain 61-38

Huge growth in the Metroplex suburbs means this district is now confined to Collin County.

District 5 (yellow)

Representative: Jeb Hensarling (R)

Areas: Mesquite, east-central

Demographics: 74% white

2008 Vote: McCain 64-35

I’m not sure if Hensarling still lives here, as Districts 30 and 32 both ate up some white areas of north Dallas, but he would move here if need be as this district is quite solid for a Dallas County Republican.

District 6 (teal)

Representative: Joe Barton (R)

Areas: Arlington, east-central

Demographics: 67% white

2008 Vote: McCain 60-39

The former Energy and Commerce Committee chairman remains quite safe in this meandering Arlington-to-rural-East-Texas seat.

District 12 (blue-gray)

Representative: Kay Granger (R)

Areas: Fort Worth

Demographics: 69% white

2008 Vote: McCain 57-42

Now entirely within Tarrant County, this district loses its rural areas but stays fairly Republican. As the Metroplex trends more Democratic, this may become competitive by 2020.

District 24 (dark purple)

Representative: Kenny Marchant (R)

Areas: Carrollton, Irving, Grapevine

Demographics: 65% white

2008 Vote: McCain 58-41

This fast-growing seat may also become a tossup in the next decade, though it remains affluent, suburban, and decidedly Republican.

District 26 (pink)

Representative: Mike Burgess (R)

Areas: Denton County

Demographics: 81% white

2008 Vote: McCain 66-34

I maintained the odd “dripping” shape of this district; in fact, this is one of the least changed seats in the state (in addition to the whitest).

District 30 (peach)

Representative: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

Areas: central and south Dallas

Demographics: 45% black, 28% white, 25% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 79-20

As District 32 moved east, toward Richardson and Garland and away from white-flight Dallas proper, Johnson had to pick up some white areas of north Dallas, though Democratic primaries in the district will still be dominated by African-Americans.

District 32 (orange)

Representative: Pete Sessions (R)

Areas: north Dallas, Garland

Demographics: 62% white

2008 Vote: McCain 55-44

A rapidly diversifying area, this district may be unsalvageable for Republicans in ten years, but for now I did my best to help Sessions (who might not live here) and future area GOPers.

District 36 (gold)

Representative: TBD

Areas: urban Fort Worth-to-Dallas serpent

Demographics: 58% Hispanic, 20% white, 19% black

2008 Vote: Obama 74-25

Republicans really do not have a choice anymore; they must draw a second Democratic vote-sink in the Metroplex, and almost everyone expects it to be a VRA coalition or Hispanic-majority district linking the region’s two primary cities. Low Hispanic turnout might enable a white or black Democrat to win, but any serious primary candidate will need to have ties to the Latino community, at least.

CENTRAL TEXAS: 5 Republicans, 1 Democrat

District 10 (pink)

Representative: Mike McCaul (R)

Areas: northeast Austin, Brazos Valley

Demographics: 63% white

2008 Vote: McCain 50-48

My biggest regret in this map is failing to give McCaul a safe district; he had to lose safe GOP areas of Harris County to enable the creation of a new district around Houston and these were replaced with counties east of Austin that are no more Republican. Again, a more skilled mapmaker can split the difference between this and District 35 to make two safe GOP seats.

District 17 (ash purple/puce)

Representative: Bill Flores (R)

Areas: stretches down to Waco, Temple, College Station

Demographics: 65% white

2008 Vote: McCain 62-37

This once-important district (back when unhinging Chet Edwards was a priority for state Republicans) is now little more than a “leftovers” seat sandwiched between fast-growing seats like the 8th, 10th, and 31st (in addition to the new District 34).

District 25 (salmon pink)

Representative: Lloyd Doggett (D)

Areas: Austin, San Marcos

Demographics: 52% white, 33% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 67-32

Much as Republicans would like to crack Austin’s Democratic base, growing Dem strength in Central Texas is sufficient for them to make a compact, geographically logical seat for Doggett.

District 31 (weak yellow)

Representative: John Carter (R)

Areas: Round Rock, New Braunfels

Demographics: 77% white

2008 Vote: McCain 57-41

Carter’s district had to move south to accommodate the new District 34 and, even then, it contracted considerably in area.

District 34 (green)

Representative: TBD

Areas: Weatherford and Arlington all the way down to Killeen

Demographics: 75% white

2008 Vote: McCain 67-32

Now here’s a classic DeLaymander-style district: it stretches incoherently from the Metroplex in the north down to the heart of Central Texas. In any case, it’s safely Republican, maybe enough so that Carter should be further shored up at its expense.

WEST TEXAS: 3 Republicans

District 11 (lime)

Representative: Mike Conaway (R)

Areas: Midland, San Angelo

Demographics: 65% white

2008 Vote: McCain 75-24

This is actually the least altered district in the state, I believe.

District 13 (light brown)

Representative: Mac Thornberry (R)

Areas: Panhandle, Amarillo

Demographics: 76% white

2008 Vote: McCain 77-22

Actually extends into what used to be Kay Granger land to get enough population.

District 19 (chartreuse)

Representative: Randy Neugebauer (R)

Areas: Lubbock, Abilene

Demographics: 64% white

2008 Vote: McCain 72-28

Now looks slightly less silly on its pinched southern flank.

SAN ANTONIO, EL PASO, & SOUTH TEXAS: 4 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 1 competitive

District 15 (orange)

Representative: Ruben Hinojosa (D)

Areas: Victoria down to the Mexican border

Demographics: 72% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 53-46

The first of the “fajita strip” districts intended to maximize Hispanic strength in the Rio Grande Valley. It could still afford to shed a few Latinos to the new District 33, whose Hispanic majority is less than secure for VRA purposes.

District 16 (green)

Representative: Silvestre Reyes (D)

Areas: El Paso

Demographics: 76% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 65-34

This district has essentially been urban El Paso for all of contemporary Texas history.

District 20 (pink)

Representative: Charlie Gonzalez (D)

Areas: San Antonio

Demographics: 68% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 64-35

Much like the 16th, this is a compact urban seat.

District 21 (brown)

Representative: Lamar Smith (R)

Areas: north San Antonio, Hill Country

Demographics: 68% white

2008 Vote: McCain 64-35

Smith remains safe; maybe too safe. But I’m not sure how to transfer significant numbers of Republicans from his district to Canseco’s without begging for a VRA lawsuit.

District 23 (light green)

Representative: Quico Canseco (R)

Areas: between El Paso and south San Antonio

Demographics: 69% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 57-42

This actually got significantly more Democratic, much to my dismay as someone hoping to craft a realistic GOP map. I suppose I could have kept north San Antonio in the district, but the 21st would have become pretty awkward-looking. Still, Republicans will probably do just that.

District 27 (shiny green)

Representative: Blake Farenthold (R)

Areas: coast down to Brownsville

Demographics: 67% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 52-47

From Farenthold’s perspective, this district is no worse than his current one, but if I were him I’d move into the new District 33 (if he doesn’t already live there), which is significantly whiter and slightly more Republican.

District 28 (mauve)

Representative: Henry Cuellar (D)

Areas: east San Antonio down to Mexican border

Demographics: 73% Hispanic

2008 Vote: Obama 60-40

This is a pear-shaped seat now, with a pinched San Antonio and Seguin top and a robust bottom. Again, I could have diluted its and the 15th’s Hispanic pops to make the 33rd closer to safety from otherwise inevitable lawsuits. But hey, at least Laredo is in one district!

District 33 (periwinkle)

Representative: TBD

Areas: Fort Bend County down to Harlingen

Demographics: 58% Hispanic, 35% white

2008 Vote: McCain 51-49

No one will like this district. It’s ugly, geographically incoherent (Houston exurbs and border towns?), not Hispanic enough to avoid a lawsuit, and politically competitive (likely Democratic in a year like 2008 and Republican in a year like 2010). This seat is an unfortunate product of big population growth both in Fort Bend County and the Rio Grande Valley. Again, mapmakers will almost surely come up with a more elegant solution than this.

OVERALL

Texas has twelve VRA-protected districts in this scenario. As I said, there are areas in which I overconcentrated Republicans and would like to spread them thinner to help potentially endangered GOP incumbents. At other times, my districts are just plain fugly. But in general, the map we see from Texas should vaguely resemble this, with a new Dem VRA seat in Dallas, a new GOP seat in Houston, a new GOP seat in Central, and a new Hispanic VRA seat in South Texas that may lean Democratic, but will not be overwhelmingly so.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

Previous diary on Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland

The rest below the fold…

Massachusetts

Districts: 9 (down from 10 in 2002)

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Not from a partisan perspective, no

For a state with an all-Democratic delegation being remapped by Democratic lawmakers, there’s been a surprising amount of drama in the Bay State over whose district will be cut. It was hoped that an older member would announce his retirement, allowing a clean elimination without any messy incumbent vs. incumbent primaries. But Financial Services Committee ranking member Barney Frank, long speculated to be the next retiree, announced he will run again, and so far no member of the congressional delegation appears ready to challenge Sen. Scott Brown, though Mike Capuano’s name is still in the running. Should he go for it, his Boston seat will simply be split up between Frank and Stephen Lynch. In any case, all nine districts should remain strongly Democratic-leaning.

Michigan

Districts: 14 (down from 15 in 2002)

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Yes

As was the case ten years ago, Republicans will draw the lines in Michigan, but unlike then, they really have no room to make gains, only to eliminate one more Democratic incumbent. In most estimations, that incumbent will be two-termer Gary Peters, the only Democrat (other than Hansen Clarke, whose district is VRA-protected) in the state’s delegation elected after 1982. A likely scenario is that his Oakland County swing district will be combined with Sander Levin’s heavily Democratic Macomb County territory in a safe blue seat. Levin’s liberal record and thirty years of seniority should make him a prohibitive favorite over Peters in the Democratic primary, but I suppose at 81 he will be prime congressional retirement age. Other than that, the GOP cannot afford to get too cute with boundaries — they already hold several marginal seats (the 1st, 7th, and 11th come to mind).

Minnesota

Districts: 8

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)

Is that important? Surely

Democrats are counting their lucky stars that Mark Dayton won the gubernatorial race, as the GOP has long aimed to combine Minneapolis and St. Paul into one heavily Democratic seat and now will presumably not have that opportunity. Ten years ago, a three-way deadlock between Independent Gov. Jesse Ventura, a Democratic Senate, and a Republican House forced the courts to step in, but many hope for compromise this time around. Since the state’s high Census participation rate saved it from losing a seat, status quo will probably win the day, with safer seats for Tim Walz, Chip Cravaack, and perhaps Collin Peterson. Ironically, Minnesota just held on to its eighth seat at the expense of fast-growing but lower-participating North Carolina, which was the controversial winner over Utah for the last seat allocated in the 2000 Census.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

The rest below the fold…

Kansas

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Nope

With an all-Republican delegation, GOP mapmakers may simply try to ensure that Kevin Yoder avoids a close race in the next decade.

Kentucky

Districts: 6

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor and House, GOP Senate)

Is that important? Perhaps

I have heard rumors that Republicans hope to stall the redistricting process past the 2011 state elections, expecting to topple both Gov. Beshear and the Democratic House majority this November. But assuming a continuation of the status quo, Ben Chandler should get a slightly more favorable district than the one he nearly lost in 2010.

Louisiana

Districts: 6, down from 7 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and House, Dem Senate)

Is that important? Not really

The outcome of reapportionment in Louisiana has scarcely been in doubt since Jeff Landry was elected last November. He will be forced against fellow Republican Rep. Charles Boustany in a coastal district. Meanwhile, Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected seat will have to absorb a lot of new population near Baton Rouge, and Rodney Alexander’s underpopulated northern seat will expand southwest a bit.

Maine

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? No

Maine does not even traditionally redraw its maps before the election year ending in 2. Sometime in 2013, the commission will make some boundary adjustments, and both Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree should remain reasonably secure should they still be in office two years from now.

Maryland

Districts: 8

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Perhaps

The question here is how aggressive Democrats perceive they can afford to be. They already constructed a master gerrymander in 2002, moving the delegation from a 4-4 split to a thoroughly safe 6-2 Democratic edge. Now, some are pushing for a 7-1 map that remakes Andy Harris’s Eastern Shore seat for a moderate Dem like Frank Kratovil. However, such a map presents serious issues: how to maintain VRA-mandated black majorities in the 4th (represented by Donna Edwards) and 7th (Elijah Cummings)? How to keep the four other Dem incumbents completely safe? With today’s redistricting technology, it can probably be done, but the 1st cannot be made securely Dem lest other districts be jeopardized…only politically competitive enough for Kratovil to stage a comeback.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

The rest below the fold…

Idaho

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? Nope

Idaho competes with Hawaii for the prize of least interesting congressional redistricting process of the decade. The commission will move some precincts around to achieve population equality, and Reps. Labrador and Simpson will likely stay in office with huge majorities throughout the 2010s.

Illinois

Districts: 18, down from 19 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Extremely

This will be the first time in a long while that Democrats control redistricting in Illinois, and as their only obvious major gerrymandering opportunity of the decade, they will milk the state for every seat it’s worth. In such a blue state with an 11-8 Republican majority in its congressional delegation, big swings should not be difficult. They will likely eliminate a GOP seat in the Chicago area (my guess: force Bob Dold and Joe Walsh together in a more Republican North Shore district), though there’s been some discussion of eliminating a downstate district instead (say, Bobby Schilling’s or Aaron Schock’s). That is only the beginning. Lessening the minority percentages by just a little in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th could ruin suburban Republicans like Adam Kinzinger and Peter Roskam, while liberal urban districts like the 9th and 5th could easily stretch westward to lessen GOP fortunes in nearby seats. In using Dave’s application, I found it possible to create an ethnically diverse, heavily Democratic 11th District for Kinzinger simply by lowering the African-American percentages for Rush and Jackson to the 52-53% range.

I think the Democrats will seek to gain perhaps three seats, for an 11-7 Democratic edge. Given the necessity of VRA protection in those four Chicago seats, any more would be pushing their luck. The most likely Republican casualties are Dold, Walsh, Kinzinger, Roskam, and Schilling, though at least one of them will likely be strengthened by the new gerrymander.

Indiana

Districts: 9

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Yes

The bad news for Democrats is that Joe Donnelly is almost certainly toast — split up South Bend and Michigan City between two districts and he will be running in a much more GOP-friendly seat than the current Obama-supporting 2nd District. The silver lining is that Republicans can’t make things much worse for them otherwise. Democratic vote concentration in Lake County and Indianapolis will ensure solid vote sink districts for Pete Visclosky and Andre Carson, and Gov. Mitch Daniels has urged his party not to go crazy with boundary lines (this probably applies more to legislative districts, since only the 2nd will be significantly politically altered in this case).

Iowa

Districts: 4, down from 5 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission, with legislative approval

Is that important? Yes

Since the commission will not want to combine two Democrats (Braley and Loebsack) or two Republicans (King and Latham), it is almost sure that Tom Latham will face Leonard Boswell in a politically competitive Des Moines/Ames district. Latham has generally overperformed GOP baseline in his district while Boswell has had a number of tough races over the years and will be 78 next year. I could see the latter retiring if forced to run against Latham. But time will tell. Boswell’s tenacity — winning races since 1996 that, more often than not, have been relatively close — may ultimately pay off.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Extend a thought today to Rep. Giffords, her family, and the families of those killed yesterday in Arizona.

The rest below the fold…

Florida

Districts: 27, up from 25 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Yes, but how important?

To date, Florida’s map has been one of the most effective Republican gerrymanders in the country, with Democrats packed efficiently into six ultra-safe seats: the VRA-protected black-majority 3rd (stretching from Jacksonville to Gainesville to Orlando), 17th (in north Miami), and 23rd (in Palm Beach/Broward), and three liberal, mostly white, urban districts: the 11th (Tampa Bay), 19th (Palm Beach/Broward), and 20th (mostly Broward). There are two seats you could call swing districts – the 8th, around Orlando, and the 22nd, on the north end of South Florida’s wealthy Gold Coast, and at the moment they are both represented by Republicans (Dan Webster and Allen West, respectively).

With the state gaining two seats, the GOP should superficially be primed for more gains, but 19-6 is a pretty lopsided majority in a state that voted for Obama and closely matched nationwide margins in 2000 and 2004. Worse for the Republicans, voters passed referenda in 2010 aimed at curtailing gerrymandering in the state. The language of the initiatives – using terms like “compact” and “existing political/geographic boundaries” – was definitely open to interpretation, but if GOP legislators preserve monstrosities like the 16th, for example, they are likely to face lawsuits on the basis of Amendment 6 (whose own validity is being questioned in court right now by Reps. Brown and Diaz-Balart). Even if Amendment 6 is struck down by the district court, though, it is hard to imagine Republicans carving out another two seats. My guess is they will seek to protect their 19 incumbents, add a new GOP seat along the Gulf Coast, and add a new Dem seat in Central FL (near Orlando or Kissimmee, perhaps) to soak up liberal-leaning voters currently represented by Sandy Adams or Dan Webster.

I have mapped Florida multiple times on DRA and have tried to create a 21-6 GOP majority. As I usually draw the new central district, it could potentially be won by a moderate Republican with appeal in the Hispanic community. But it would be a strong Obama ’08 seat and good territory for a Dem legislator like Darren Soto. Really, 20-7 is about the best any party can hope to do in a swing state, even one that tilts its own way.

Georgia

Districts: 14, up from 13 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Sort of

Republicans should have no trouble adding a new GOP seat in the Atlanta suburbs (most likely around Gwinnett, Rockdale, Walton, and Newton Counties), but from there it gets more complicated. Most observers agree they will make Sanford Bishop’s district VRA-protected, adding mostly black areas of Macon to protect Austin Scott from competition in the 8th, but we seem to be divided over whether they will target John Barrow for defeat. Arguments for: he’s white, it’s not a VRA-protected district, and his bases of support in Augusta and Savannah could easily be lumped with neighboring safe Republican districts to ruin any chances he had for reelection. Arguments against: a VRA lawsuit would be inevitable because black voters currently hold sway in the district’s Democratic primaries, Jack Kingston and Paul Broun don’t particularly want a bunch of new Dem-voting constituents, and there are a lot of rural African-Americans in eastern and east-central Georgia who have to go somewhere and will comprise a large portion of the district however it is drawn.

Personally, I don’t think they will target Barrow much; they may attempt to dilute his black % a little bit, or they may do the opposite to make serious primary competition more likely. Either way, there are too many Democrats in that part of the state for mapmakers to crack the district very effectively.

Hawaii

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? No

Well, this is the snoozeville of congressional redistricting right here. Dem incumbents Hirono and Hanabusa are already fairly safe and native son Barack Obama will be on the ballot in 2012. The commission will very slightly tinker with the lines and it should mean nothing for either woman’s reelection prospects.

Later: Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa!

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at California, Colorado, and Connecticut.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

The rest below the fold…

California

Districts: 53

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? Heck yes

Boy, is this the big kahuna. With California’s delegation comprising 12.2% of the entire House, and 17.6% of the whole Democratic caucus, the Golden State was already a dominant player in the nationwide redistricting wars, but with its recent switch from legislative control (which would have meant a Democratic gerrymander in 2011) to a nonpartisan commission, any semblance of certainty is out the window. The commission must preserve VRA-protected minority seats, of which there are at least 12 (Barbara Lee’s 9th, Jim Costa’s 20th, Xavier Becerra’s 31st, Judy Chu’s 32nd, Karen Bass’s 33rd, Lucille Roybal-Allard’s 34th, Maxine Waters’s 35th, Laura Richardson’s 37th, Grace Napolitano’s 38th, Linda Sanchez’s 39th, Joe Baca’s 43rd, and Loretta Sanchez’s 47th) and  several more if you interpret the law as protecting Latino-majority/plurality districts represented by non-Hispanic whites.

Republicans say the losers in California redistricting will be white Democrats representing less-than-completely-solid seats (such as Jerry McNerney and Dennis Cardoza), seats likely to be broken up and redistributed between other districts (such as Lois Capps), or seats likely to be turned into VRA-protected minority districts (such as one of the San Fernando Valley Dems: Berman, Sherman, or Schiff). Democrats say that the current map is not that gerrymandered in their favor, and is instead an incumbent protection gambit; they argue that nonpartisan redistricting will ruin as many GOP incumbents (Ken Calvert and Gary Miller, say) as Dem incumbents. In any case, few solid predictions can be made at this point, and I’d like very much to hear what those of you at SSP think will happen. If forced at gunpoint to predict something about the new map, I’d say a seat will be shifted from the Bay Area to the Inland Empire, and that Jerry McNerney is the likely “eliminee,” though it could also be a longtimer like George Miller or Pete Stark. Also, a competitive Central Coast district will be recreated à la the California 22nd in the 1990s, hurting the reelection prospects of both Lois Capps and Elton Gallegly. Demographics will also compel the commission to create a couple new Hispanic districts, at least one of which will be a reconfiguration of a seat now represented by a white L.A. Democrat.

The commission’s membership has been finalized and its work should be complete by sometime this autumn. I, for one, greatly look forward to the fireworks.

Colorado

Districts: 7

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor and Senate, GOP House)

Is that important? Not really

The bare Republican majority in Colorado’s House should ensure a safer seat for Scott Tipton in the 3rd (represented by a Republican from 1992 to 2004 and a Democrat from 2004 to 2010), but otherwise won’t change the partisan dynamics much in Colorado. Overwhelming Democratic edges for Diana DeGette in Denver and Jared Polis in the Boulder area may be diluted a bit to create a rock-solid constituency for Ed Perlmutter, but that will be the only tangible benefit for Team Blue.

Connecticut

Districts: 5

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? No

An overwhelmingly Democratic legislature will draw districts for an already all-Democratic House delegation. Jim Himes and Chris Murphy should get slightly safer seats at the marginal expense of rock-solid incumbents John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, but that will be the extend of remapping drama in the Nutmeg State.

Later this week: Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii!

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and I’ll go alphabetically, starting with Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas.

The rest below the fold…

Alabama

Districts: 7

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? No

Don’t expect too much drama in Alabama, as Republicans seek an incumbent protection map that ensures no Democrat getting elected in the 2nd (represented by Martha Roby) or 3rd (Mike Rogers). The 7th remains a VRA-protected black-majority district, and the only Democratic stronghold in the state.

Arizona

Districts: 9, up from 8 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? Oh, yes

Whenever a nonpartisan commission is involved, most (but not all) bets are off. Both Hispanic-majority VRA districts — the 4th, represented by Ed Pastor, and Raul Grijalva’s 7th — will have to be kept majority-minority, and the weird lines in northern Arizona separating the Hopi (in Trent Franks’ 2nd) from the Navajo (in Paul Gosar’s 1st) will remain. But the commission is under no obligation to protect incumbents, and that goes for Gosar, Grijalva, Giffords, Quayle, Schweikert, and anyone else who may face trouble in the next decade. In any case, most observers predict a new GOP seat in the Phoenix area, since Democratic areas are sufficiently concentrated in the 4th and much of the state’s population growth has occurred in conservative suburban Maricopa County.

My prediction: Republicans +1, all things being equal. Multiple incumbent defeats are, however, very possible depending on the new lines.

Arkansas

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Probably not

While Democrats have the redistricting trifecta in Arkansas as they did not in 2002, I cannot imagine them exploiting it particularly well. The trends in this state are as plain as the nose on your face, and Democrats know from rising GOP fortunes both within the Natural State and within all its neighboring states that their days in power are numbered. If anything, they may attempt to strengthen Mike Ross’ 4th District, the only blue seat, but I don’t see them working to dislodge Tim Griffin or Rick Crawford, both of whom represent districts that just ten years ago were considered reliably and ancestrally Democratic. It’s not easy being a Democrat in the South, particularly not the slow-growing Old South consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, et al.

In the next edition: California, Colorado, and Connecticut.

The Census figures won’t be reported until December and not finalized until next spring, but the 2010 elections are now over and it seems redistricting is on everyone’s – and by everyone, I mean everyone in the rarefied world of political blogs and political science academia – minds. Republicans are crowing that their control of the redistricting trifectas in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin will bring them great gains and solidify their new House majority for years to come (funny, much the same was said in 2002, and House control has flipped twice since then, in dramatic numbers each time). So though it’s early, let’s look state-by-state at what is most likely to come of redistricting this decade.

I’m excluding some states – Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and West Virginia – whose redistricting process will likely prove uninteresting this round.

Arizona

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission

How many seats? 9 (up from 8 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 competitive seat

The Republicans have a 5-3 majority in Arizona’s delegation, but each party holds a couple generally competitive seats (the 1st and 5th for the Republicans, the 8th for the Democrats), and the commission needs not protect incumbents, so will probably seek to create as close to a tossup seat as possible in the fast-growing suburban areas of Maricopa County (Phoenix). As in 2002 when Rick Renzi’s win in the then-newly created 1st corresponded to slightly expanded Republican majorities nationwide, how the new Arizona seat goes may act as a bellwether of sorts.

California

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission

How many seats? 53

Likely shift? Totally up in the air

This state saw a genius Democratic gerrymander in 1982, a competitive court-drawn map in 1992, an incumbent protection gambit in 2002, and now nonpartisan redistricting has finally come to California. Republicans are convinced they can net a handful of seats out of a commission-drawn map, but remember we are talking about a presidential year in which Democratic turnout for Obama should be high and that some of the greatest beneficiaries of 2002’s map were suburban Republicans. Bottom line: no one knows what to expect.

Florida

Who’s in control? Republicans, within limits

How many seats? 27 (up from 25 in 2002)

Likely shift? We’ll see

A state constitutional amendment passed on November 2 that banned the legislature from drawing districts designed to favor or disfavor a given political party, so in essence the state is now subject to nonpartisan redistricting. However, the state government is still solidly in GOP control, so the legislature can easily pass a gerrymandered map and just wait for the Democrats to launch a time-consuming court challenge. Meanwhile, the amendment is itself being challenged in court right now by Reps. Corrine Brown and Mario Diaz-Balart, who claim that the new redistricting rules re: compactness jeopardize VRA-protected minority seats. If they win in court, the amendment is out and GOP gerrymandering is in. But should the legislature actually have to follow new rules, we could see quite a few Democratic pickups here, as the state is already ridiculously rigged in Republicans’ favor.

Georgia

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 14 (up from 13 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1-2 R

The only question is how aggressive Republicans want to be. If I were them, I’d craft a new GOP seat in Gwinnett County/eastern Atlanta and pack Sanford Bishop’s south Georgia seat with black population in Macon, then make John Barrow’s Augusta-to-Savannah marginal Dem district a bit more Republican. But if they overreach re: Barrow (or try to target Bishop instead) they could leave frosh GOPer Austin Scott underprotected.

Illinois

Who’s in control? Democrats

How many seats? 18 (down from 19 in 2002)

Likely shift? +2-3 D

The Democrats definitely plan to milk Illinois for all its worth, particularly given GOP gains this year that allow for some serious poaching and the lack of Democratic gerrymandering opportunities elsewhere. Expect a Republican – either Bobby Schilling downstate or Bob Dold/Joe Walsh in the Chicago area – to face elimination and another two (Randy Hultgren and Adam Kinzinger, e.g.) to see their districts cracked or reconfigured.

Indiana

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 9

Likely shift? +1 R

This is a simple enough task for the GOP: protect Larry Bucshon and Todd Young, defeat Joe Donnelly. For the latter purpose, moving Donnelly’s South Bend-area base into the already heavily Democratic 1st District would be all that is required.

Iowa

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission (with legislative approval)

How many seats? 4 (down from 5 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

The nonpartisan commission likely won’t force two Democrats (Braley and Loebsack) or two Republicans (Latham and King) together, so the only plausible outcome, I think, is a match between Latham and Boswell in central Iowa around Des Moines and Ames. This will be a tossup district with maybe a slight edge given to Latham.

Louisiana

Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov, Dem Legislature)

How many seats? 6 (down from 7 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 R

The only Democratic seat left is Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected 2nd District, which will likely regain lost population by adding a tentacle in Baton Rouge. A Republican – perhaps newcomer Jeff Landry – will have to be cut loose. If it’s Landry as some have suggested, he will be combined with Charles Boustany in a Cajun Country/Gulf-centered seat.

Massachusetts

Who’s in control? Democrats

How many seats? 9 (down from 10 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 D

This cancels out Louisiana from a partisan standpoint. RealClearPolitics recently pointed out that the Western Mass 1st District, held by 70-something Rep. John Olver, seems a likely target for elimination but that liberals would much rather devise a way to get rid of Stephen Lynch in South Boston. And then, of course, there’s freshman Bill Keating. The decision may rest more on personality than on politics, given the lack of partisan intrigue innate to a bunch of veteran Democrats picking which veteran Democrat to force out of Congress.

Michigan

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 14 (down from 15 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 D

Much speculation has centered on who the unlucky Democrat will be but I’m actually reasonably certain it will be two-termer Gary Peters in Oakland County. The Detroit area has lost population, but both VRA districts (Hansen Clarke’s 13th and John Conyers’ 14th) can and will be preserved, so the simplest solution is to combine Peters with longtimer Sander Levin in a heavily Democratic suburban seat. I doubt the Republicans will target Dingell or Kildee either, since that would spread GOP votes too thin in an already gerrymandered map.

Minnesota

Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov, GOP Legislature) assuming Dayton wins the gov. race

How many seats? 7 (down from 8 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

If Tom Emmer wins the gubernatorial recount, we are in for a whole new ballgame as Republicans finally combine Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district, but should Dayton prevail this may involve a competitive seat between Collin Peterson and Chip Cravaack up north or between Tim Walz and John Kline down south.

Missouri

Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov, GOP Legislature)

How many seats? 8 (down from 9 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

RealClearPolitics noted that the GOP’s legislative majorities are almost veto-proof and that, if black Democrats ally with Republicans, they could pass a GOP- and minority-friendly map over Gov. Nixon’s objections. But the most likely outcome here is a suburban St. Louis race between Todd Akin and Russ Carnahan that favors Akin (since Carnahan will need to cede some Democratic votes to Lacy Clay’s population-losing 1st District).

Nevada

Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov, Dem Legislature)

How many seats? 4 (up from 3 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 D

The legislature will probably pass a plan that protects newbie Republican Joe Heck but compensates with a new Dem-leaning seat in Reno or suburban Clark County.

New Jersey

Who’s in control? Bipartisan commission

How many seats? 12 (down from 13 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

North Jersey’s population loss means Bill Pascrell could be combined with Rodney Frelinghuysen or Scott Garrett in a moderate suburban district. The commission is bipartisan, not nonpartisan, so swing votes can easily be swung and incumbent protection for the other 11 districts is almost assured.

New York

Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov and House, GOP Senate)

How many seats? 27 (down from 29 in 2002)

Likely shift? 1 D and 1 R

I am assuming the Senate stays in Republican hands; this should involve the elimination of one upstate seat and one city-area seat. RCP predicts the unlucky upstater will be a Democrat and the unlucky downstater a Republican (Pete King or, if he wins, Randy Altschuler). But I always assumed it would be the opposite. In all predicted scenarios, incumbents of the same party will be combined with each  other. We shall see.

North Carolina

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 13

Likely shift? +2 R

Republicans will seek to aggressively undo the Democratic gerrymander of ’02 by dismantling Larry Kissell and either Heath Shuler or Mike McIntyre. They could conceivably target all three and spread Republican votes extremely thin. David Price, Brad Miller, Mel Watt, and G.K. Butterfield should be fine in any case.

Ohio

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 16 (down from 18 in 2002)

Likely shift? 1 D and 1 R

I am convinced the GOP will not seek to eliminate two Democrats. That would, quite simply, jeopardize their incredibly lopsided majority in the state delegation. I’ve long thought they’d combine Dennis Kucinich and Betty Sutton in a new Cleveland-to-Akron seat and two freshman Republicans elsewhere (best bet? Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs in the rural east, or Gibbs and Jim Renacci from Canton). Meanwhile, they’ll shore up regained GOP seats in Cincinnati and Columbus.

Pennsylvania

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 18 (down from 19 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 D and possibly +1 R

As in Michigan and Ohio, we are already working with a GOP-gerrymandered map in the aftermath of a GOP-friendly election so the Republicans can’t afford to target the remaining Dem incumbents much. The most they can do is eliminate Mark Critz and make Jason Altmire’s seat more Republican.

South Carolina

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 7 (up from 6 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 R

John Spratt’s defeat makes this an easy call- pack the black population and Democrats in general into Jim Clyburn’s 6th to squeeze out one more Republican seat either up north or near Charleston.

Texas

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 36 (up from 32 in 2002)

Likely shift? +3 R and +1 D

This is a fascinating case. The Republicans have unlikely freshmen in Quico Canseco and Blake Farenthold; how to protect them without diluting the Hispanic populations in the 23rd and 27th and thereby violating the VRA? Meanwhile, RCP is convinced they can carve out four new GOP districts, but every way I’ve run the math the Democrats are due a new seat in Dallas-Fort Worth. The scenario I suggest may actually be the best possible outcome for the Republicans, since if they protect Canseco and Farenthold too much they may see their map tossed out in court. One more parting shot: pack every available Hispanic into the already heavily Latino 29th to see if they can finally knock Gene Green out in a Democratic primary.

Utah

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 4 (up from 3 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 R

The big question is whether the legislature will try once again to ruin Democratic survivor Jim Matheson, whose district is already heavily rural and ridiculously conservative, or just give him a moderate Salt Lake City-based district to ensure the election of three Republicans? It seems to me they can’t make his seat much more Republican without making the new 4th District a comparably liberal SLC seat.

Virginia

Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov and House, Dem Senate)

How many seats? 11

Likely shift? None

At the moment everyone presumes we will see an incumbent protection map, but consider the following scenario: Republicans stall on redistricting until after the 2011 elections, hoping to flip control of the Senate and thereby run the whole process. They then draw a map the following year that cracks Gerry Connolly’s base and allows for a 9-2 GOP majority. Of course, that assumes the wind is still at Republicans’ backs next November, and a year is indeed an eternity in politics.

Washington

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission

How many seats? 10 (up from 9 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 competitive

The commission is not obliged to protect incumbents, so anything can happen with the existing delegation or with the new 10th District. Both suburban Seattle and the inland have grown, and the two regions’ politics stand in stark contrast, so…we shall see.

Wisconsin

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 8

Likely shift? None or +1 R

The most they could do at this point is crack Ron Kind’s district, but that would represent a huge risk since Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble are new in town. Duffy, particularly, would benefit from Kind getting a more Democratic seat in western Wisconsin.