The Census figures won’t be reported until December and not finalized until next spring, but the 2010 elections are now over and it seems redistricting is on everyone’s – and by everyone, I mean everyone in the rarefied world of political blogs and political science academia – minds. Republicans are crowing that their control of the redistricting trifectas in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin will bring them great gains and solidify their new House majority for years to come (funny, much the same was said in 2002, and House control has flipped twice since then, in dramatic numbers each time). So though it’s early, let’s look state-by-state at what is most likely to come of redistricting this decade.
I’m excluding some states – Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and West Virginia – whose redistricting process will likely prove uninteresting this round.
Arizona
Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission
How many seats? 9 (up from 8 in 2002)
Likely shift? +1 competitive seat
The Republicans have a 5-3 majority in Arizona’s delegation, but each party holds a couple generally competitive seats (the 1st and 5th for the Republicans, the 8th for the Democrats), and the commission needs not protect incumbents, so will probably seek to create as close to a tossup seat as possible in the fast-growing suburban areas of Maricopa County (Phoenix). As in 2002 when Rick Renzi’s win in the then-newly created 1st corresponded to slightly expanded Republican majorities nationwide, how the new Arizona seat goes may act as a bellwether of sorts.
California
Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission
How many seats? 53
Likely shift? Totally up in the air
This state saw a genius Democratic gerrymander in 1982, a competitive court-drawn map in 1992, an incumbent protection gambit in 2002, and now nonpartisan redistricting has finally come to California. Republicans are convinced they can net a handful of seats out of a commission-drawn map, but remember we are talking about a presidential year in which Democratic turnout for Obama should be high and that some of the greatest beneficiaries of 2002’s map were suburban Republicans. Bottom line: no one knows what to expect.
Florida
Who’s in control? Republicans, within limits
How many seats? 27 (up from 25 in 2002)
Likely shift? We’ll see
A state constitutional amendment passed on November 2 that banned the legislature from drawing districts designed to favor or disfavor a given political party, so in essence the state is now subject to nonpartisan redistricting. However, the state government is still solidly in GOP control, so the legislature can easily pass a gerrymandered map and just wait for the Democrats to launch a time-consuming court challenge. Meanwhile, the amendment is itself being challenged in court right now by Reps. Corrine Brown and Mario Diaz-Balart, who claim that the new redistricting rules re: compactness jeopardize VRA-protected minority seats. If they win in court, the amendment is out and GOP gerrymandering is in. But should the legislature actually have to follow new rules, we could see quite a few Democratic pickups here, as the state is already ridiculously rigged in Republicans’ favor.
Georgia
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 14 (up from 13 in 2002)
Likely shift? +1-2 R
The only question is how aggressive Republicans want to be. If I were them, I’d craft a new GOP seat in Gwinnett County/eastern Atlanta and pack Sanford Bishop’s south Georgia seat with black population in Macon, then make John Barrow’s Augusta-to-Savannah marginal Dem district a bit more Republican. But if they overreach re: Barrow (or try to target Bishop instead) they could leave frosh GOPer Austin Scott underprotected.
Illinois
Who’s in control? Democrats
How many seats? 18 (down from 19 in 2002)
Likely shift? +2-3 D
The Democrats definitely plan to milk Illinois for all its worth, particularly given GOP gains this year that allow for some serious poaching and the lack of Democratic gerrymandering opportunities elsewhere. Expect a Republican – either Bobby Schilling downstate or Bob Dold/Joe Walsh in the Chicago area – to face elimination and another two (Randy Hultgren and Adam Kinzinger, e.g.) to see their districts cracked or reconfigured.
Indiana
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 9
Likely shift? +1 R
This is a simple enough task for the GOP: protect Larry Bucshon and Todd Young, defeat Joe Donnelly. For the latter purpose, moving Donnelly’s South Bend-area base into the already heavily Democratic 1st District would be all that is required.
Iowa
Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission (with legislative approval)
How many seats? 4 (down from 5 in 2002)
Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match
The nonpartisan commission likely won’t force two Democrats (Braley and Loebsack) or two Republicans (Latham and King) together, so the only plausible outcome, I think, is a match between Latham and Boswell in central Iowa around Des Moines and Ames. This will be a tossup district with maybe a slight edge given to Latham.
Louisiana
Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov, Dem Legislature)
How many seats? 6 (down from 7 in 2002)
Likely shift? -1 R
The only Democratic seat left is Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected 2nd District, which will likely regain lost population by adding a tentacle in Baton Rouge. A Republican – perhaps newcomer Jeff Landry – will have to be cut loose. If it’s Landry as some have suggested, he will be combined with Charles Boustany in a Cajun Country/Gulf-centered seat.
Massachusetts
Who’s in control? Democrats
How many seats? 9 (down from 10 in 2002)
Likely shift? -1 D
This cancels out Louisiana from a partisan standpoint. RealClearPolitics recently pointed out that the Western Mass 1st District, held by 70-something Rep. John Olver, seems a likely target for elimination but that liberals would much rather devise a way to get rid of Stephen Lynch in South Boston. And then, of course, there’s freshman Bill Keating. The decision may rest more on personality than on politics, given the lack of partisan intrigue innate to a bunch of veteran Democrats picking which veteran Democrat to force out of Congress.
Michigan
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 14 (down from 15 in 2002)
Likely shift? -1 D
Much speculation has centered on who the unlucky Democrat will be but I’m actually reasonably certain it will be two-termer Gary Peters in Oakland County. The Detroit area has lost population, but both VRA districts (Hansen Clarke’s 13th and John Conyers’ 14th) can and will be preserved, so the simplest solution is to combine Peters with longtimer Sander Levin in a heavily Democratic suburban seat. I doubt the Republicans will target Dingell or Kildee either, since that would spread GOP votes too thin in an already gerrymandered map.
Minnesota
Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov, GOP Legislature) assuming Dayton wins the gov. race
How many seats? 7 (down from 8 in 2002)
Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match
If Tom Emmer wins the gubernatorial recount, we are in for a whole new ballgame as Republicans finally combine Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district, but should Dayton prevail this may involve a competitive seat between Collin Peterson and Chip Cravaack up north or between Tim Walz and John Kline down south.
Missouri
Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov, GOP Legislature)
How many seats? 8 (down from 9 in 2002)
Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match
RealClearPolitics noted that the GOP’s legislative majorities are almost veto-proof and that, if black Democrats ally with Republicans, they could pass a GOP- and minority-friendly map over Gov. Nixon’s objections. But the most likely outcome here is a suburban St. Louis race between Todd Akin and Russ Carnahan that favors Akin (since Carnahan will need to cede some Democratic votes to Lacy Clay’s population-losing 1st District).
Nevada
Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov, Dem Legislature)
How many seats? 4 (up from 3 in 2002)
Likely shift? +1 D
The legislature will probably pass a plan that protects newbie Republican Joe Heck but compensates with a new Dem-leaning seat in Reno or suburban Clark County.
New Jersey
Who’s in control? Bipartisan commission
How many seats? 12 (down from 13 in 2002)
Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match
North Jersey’s population loss means Bill Pascrell could be combined with Rodney Frelinghuysen or Scott Garrett in a moderate suburban district. The commission is bipartisan, not nonpartisan, so swing votes can easily be swung and incumbent protection for the other 11 districts is almost assured.
New York
Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov and House, GOP Senate)
How many seats? 27 (down from 29 in 2002)
Likely shift? 1 D and 1 R
I am assuming the Senate stays in Republican hands; this should involve the elimination of one upstate seat and one city-area seat. RCP predicts the unlucky upstater will be a Democrat and the unlucky downstater a Republican (Pete King or, if he wins, Randy Altschuler). But I always assumed it would be the opposite. In all predicted scenarios, incumbents of the same party will be combined with each other. We shall see.
North Carolina
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 13
Likely shift? +2 R
Republicans will seek to aggressively undo the Democratic gerrymander of ’02 by dismantling Larry Kissell and either Heath Shuler or Mike McIntyre. They could conceivably target all three and spread Republican votes extremely thin. David Price, Brad Miller, Mel Watt, and G.K. Butterfield should be fine in any case.
Ohio
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 16 (down from 18 in 2002)
Likely shift? 1 D and 1 R
I am convinced the GOP will not seek to eliminate two Democrats. That would, quite simply, jeopardize their incredibly lopsided majority in the state delegation. I’ve long thought they’d combine Dennis Kucinich and Betty Sutton in a new Cleveland-to-Akron seat and two freshman Republicans elsewhere (best bet? Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs in the rural east, or Gibbs and Jim Renacci from Canton). Meanwhile, they’ll shore up regained GOP seats in Cincinnati and Columbus.
Pennsylvania
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 18 (down from 19 in 2002)
Likely shift? -1 D and possibly +1 R
As in Michigan and Ohio, we are already working with a GOP-gerrymandered map in the aftermath of a GOP-friendly election so the Republicans can’t afford to target the remaining Dem incumbents much. The most they can do is eliminate Mark Critz and make Jason Altmire’s seat more Republican.
South Carolina
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 7 (up from 6 in 2002)
Likely shift? +1 R
John Spratt’s defeat makes this an easy call- pack the black population and Democrats in general into Jim Clyburn’s 6th to squeeze out one more Republican seat either up north or near Charleston.
Texas
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 36 (up from 32 in 2002)
Likely shift? +3 R and +1 D
This is a fascinating case. The Republicans have unlikely freshmen in Quico Canseco and Blake Farenthold; how to protect them without diluting the Hispanic populations in the 23rd and 27th and thereby violating the VRA? Meanwhile, RCP is convinced they can carve out four new GOP districts, but every way I’ve run the math the Democrats are due a new seat in Dallas-Fort Worth. The scenario I suggest may actually be the best possible outcome for the Republicans, since if they protect Canseco and Farenthold too much they may see their map tossed out in court. One more parting shot: pack every available Hispanic into the already heavily Latino 29th to see if they can finally knock Gene Green out in a Democratic primary.
Utah
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 4 (up from 3 in 2002)
Likely shift? +1 R
The big question is whether the legislature will try once again to ruin Democratic survivor Jim Matheson, whose district is already heavily rural and ridiculously conservative, or just give him a moderate Salt Lake City-based district to ensure the election of three Republicans? It seems to me they can’t make his seat much more Republican without making the new 4th District a comparably liberal SLC seat.
Virginia
Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov and House, Dem Senate)
How many seats? 11
Likely shift? None
At the moment everyone presumes we will see an incumbent protection map, but consider the following scenario: Republicans stall on redistricting until after the 2011 elections, hoping to flip control of the Senate and thereby run the whole process. They then draw a map the following year that cracks Gerry Connolly’s base and allows for a 9-2 GOP majority. Of course, that assumes the wind is still at Republicans’ backs next November, and a year is indeed an eternity in politics.
Washington
Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission
How many seats? 10 (up from 9 in 2002)
Likely shift? +1 competitive
The commission is not obliged to protect incumbents, so anything can happen with the existing delegation or with the new 10th District. Both suburban Seattle and the inland have grown, and the two regions’ politics stand in stark contrast, so…we shall see.
Wisconsin
Who’s in control? Republicans
How many seats? 8
Likely shift? None or +1 R
The most they could do at this point is crack Ron Kind’s district, but that would represent a huge risk since Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble are new in town. Duffy, particularly, would benefit from Kind getting a more Democratic seat in western Wisconsin.
1. I expect NC Republicans to try to reduce the Democratic delegation to 4. And Brad Miller, who drew his own district in 2001, will likely be targeted.
2. Virginia has to redistrict its legislative map before the 2011 elections (as does New Jersey). That means that Dems are guaranteed a seat at the table. The real question is whether they will be able to tie down their majority in the state senate.
3. I fully expect Maryland to go for D + 1 (in all probability, Kratovil gets a “comeback district,” though I would try to carve out a new district in the DC suburbs and attach the entire eastern shore to Baltimore).
I hope we can get some partisan data for Illinois, because I think that would be perfect for this year’s contest.
Thanks for the roundup.
mid-cycle redistricting in New York.
The latest projections have Minnesota keeping 8 seats but I guess we will have to wait another month and a half to know for sure.
As for the governorship there is know way Emmer comes out on top. This is not like 2008, there is a nearly 9,000 vote difference between the candidates not a couple hundred. I have as good a chance of being the next Governor of Minnesota as Emmer does.
If Minnesota keeps 8 seats look for the map to look a lot like the current one. The Courts drew this map so if there is not a compromise reached between Dayton and the Legislature I would expect the courts to use the current map as the basis of the new map.
If Minnesota loses a seat then things will really get messy. Dayton would certainly veto any map that puts Minneapolis and St Paul in the same district and I just don’t see a compromise map both sides would like. if Minnesota loses a seat I am almost positive the courts will end up drawing the map. What that map would look like I have no idea.
The more I think about it, there’s not that much reason not to eliminate both Kucinich and Sutton.
Given the following:
1. Latuorette needs to expand somewhere. He can only go into Fudge’s district or Ryan’d district.
2. Sutton has a fair amount of R territory that can move into Renacci’s district. So does Kucinich.
3. Kaptur has some Toledo suburbs that can be scraped off.
There’s not enough population in that territory left in that area to feed 4 districts once you make the above 3 changes.
Most of the growth has been here, and all the pols hungry for promotion are here.
I just remembered Assembly Speaker John Oceguera will be termed out come 2012. Well, he now has quite the upper hand in redistricting…
I was unaware of the possibility of redistricting ending Rep. Akin’s career. That would be great.
may be mandated to create a Charleston-area VRA seat. Clyburn’s district is already maxed-out (I think) in regards to population and size, you can’t put much more in there without violating compactness requirements.
Sure, protecting all the incumbents there would be a feat in and of itself for the Republicans, but do you think they can do it? Any chance of breaking Tim Holden while they are at it?
I’ve been trying to draw the lines here, and I’m not quite sure how they even have this many seats. Jim Gerlach seems basically dead unless you start drawing districts out into the T, and there’s not much to do to help the Bucks County or Lehigh Valley seats without breaking them. Assuming they aren’t worried about Carney coming back, I assume they massage the 10th and 11th to make them more even partisan-wise.
I’m not a wizard here, but it seems that it would be a lot easier to concede Gerlach’s seat in addition to the 3 Philly city seats (Brady, Fattah, Schwartz), and make all the other seats (including Tim Holden’s) more Republican.
In PA, I predict that Republicans will do the following:
Create 2 safe Dem seats in the West:
1. Pitt seat for Doyle
2. A seat designed on the Western Border which captures downtown Erie and then snakes down the border to capture all the dem portions of Altmire’s and Critz’ districts.
Central PA:
1. Create a safe district for Holden which will encompass downtown Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Allentown, and Harrisburg. This will make Barletta and Dent safer
Philly Burbs:
1. The 2 Philly seats need to expand outward, which will allow them to soak up a lot of dem voters in Delaware County
2. Convert Schwartz district to soak up all the dems in the inner suburbs.
This will eliminate 1 seat, make all other incumbents safer.
Couldn’t the VA GOP do their redistricting now with the dem held state senate (make it incumbent protection), then, assuming they retake the senate in 2011, do a mid-decade redistricting the same way texas and georgia did, in time for the 2012 elections?
Also, does anybody know whether the redistricting for state leg districts in va has to happen before the 2011 elections? With pop growth in NoVA and decline in the southern part of the state, that could significantly affect whether dems keep control of the state sen post-2011.
For a one-paragraph rundown, I think that's a pretty good summary of the situation in Michigan. Shameless plug: I run though a variety of possible maps here. Despite falling off the front page, discussion is still ongoing.
The more I play with the maps, the more I think that the congressional Republicans in Michigan are actually more screwed than most people think. They can probably ax one of Gary Peters' 9th or Sander Levin's 12th, but it's actually a lot more complicated than one with think. The really hard part though, is dealing with the outstate.
The current map is 9-6. The Republicans will be trying to take it to 9-5. Out of those 9, though, only three currently R+5 or better. The 1st, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 11th are all between PVI even and R+3. You can't really shore any of them up except at the expense of a neighboring (weak) district. (Or at the expense of making one of the three safe districts unsafe.) The 7th is particularly helpless — I haven't found any way to make that anything other than a swing district.
1) Arizona: I’ve heard suggestions that the most likely thing for Arizona’s 9th District would be some sort of Phoenix Center/Tempe white liberal district. That would shore up the existing 5th and also the 3rd for the GOP. Congressman Terry Goddard, anyone?
2) Maryland: Dems will likely find a way to draw a 7th Democratic district; the question is which option do they take? A more Democratic 1st, or a new 6th that takes in a big chunk of Montgomery County? Depends on who’s drawing the map.
3) Missouri: If I’m Jay Nixon and Missouri Democrats, I just let the courts draw the map; they probably can’t do worse than 3 Democratic districts anyways.
4) Michigan: As covered in the discussion, I think the GOP has a very tricky task. I wouldn’t muck about in suburban Detroit too much; Thad McCotter is a complete unknown when it comes to tough races, and I’ve never, ever been too impressed with his margins in the 11th.
5) Texas: I honestly think this will be an even split. Under the Bush DOJ, Craddick/DeLay could do whatever the heck they wanted to, consequences be whatever they were. For pure partisan reasons, Dems are going to get something else in the DFW Metroplex. The GOP would be colosally stupid not to; TX-24 and 32 are on the wrong side of the demographic cliff for them. They probably also have to carve out another South Texas tortilla strip as well. The GOP gets another seat in the Houston metro area and another in East Texas somewhere.
6) South Carolina: I have severe doubts that the GOP can get away with drawing an effective, long term 6-1 map. I know people will say that they’ve managed to do it in places like Alabama and Louisiana, but South Carolina is 5 points more Democratic than those two, and I can name at least four plausible white Dems who are Congressional material. No, if I’m the GOP, I create two black majority minority districts (one based in North Charleston and the other centered on Richland County) to deny Dems a stepping stone opportunity to higher office, shore up the 5th, and call it a day.
I would be surprised if this becomes an issue but I thought it was interesting.
http://www.omaha.com/article/2…