Tag: gerrymandering

So I finally registered on SSP and this map is my first posting of North Carolina. It’s intended to result in 9 safe GOP districts, all of which are 57% McCain or above, and 4 safe majority-minority Dem districts, two of which are plurality VAP black.

Overview:

From East to West:

Finally, a close up of the Triangle and the Triad:

All districts are within 500 of ideal population as follows:

Obama/McCain       White/Black/Hispanic/Asian/Native/other

NC-1 (Blue)        G.K. Butterfield (D)

67.5-32.0        40.9/47.8/7.4/1.7/0.7/1.5

The 1st loses a bit of the coastal region but the only major change is a snaking addition into Raleigh to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters so as to have enough population.

Safe Democratic

NC-2 (Green)        Renee Ellmers (R), Larry Kissell (D)/Mike McIntyre (D)

40.7-58.4        69.3/15.2/9.5/2.5/1.6/2.0

The 2nd undergoes significant changes as it loses area in Raleigh proper and the counties to the northeast and gains heavily Republican territory to the south and west from the current 7th and 8th districts.  Ellmers should be safe here barring a primary challenge from another Republican, but seeing as how she’s very conservative this shouldn’t be a huge problem for her. Incidentally, Kissell’s home in Biscoe and possibly McIntyre’s in Lumberton have both been placed into the 2nd.

Safe Republican

NC-3 (Purple)        Walter Jones (R)

40.8-58.3        76.5/14.6/5.5/1.1/0.4/1.8

The 3rd loses its appendage towards Wilson and Rocky Mount and gains one snaking down the rest of the coast to include Republican friendly territory from the current 7th. Jones’ district becomes slightly more Democratic but that shouldn’t be much of a problem for him.

Safe Republican

NC-4 (Red)        David Price (D)

77.4-21.8        41.6/37.9/11.9/5.9/0.4/2.2

The 4th loses all of the southern 3rd and northwestern section of Wake County and instead bisects it to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters.  The most radical change to the 4th, and what makes this configuration so devastating, is that it extends an arm across Alamance and Guilford counties, picking up very heavily minority and Democratic territory from Greensboro and High Point and in the process screwing over Brad Miller. The 4th is one of the most Democratic districts in the South and would be one of the most Democratic MMD to elect a white Democrat.

Safe Democratic

NC-5 (Yellow)        Virginia Foxx (R)

41.2-57.6        80.7/9.0/7.0/1.6/0.2/1.5

The 5th loses territory around Winston Salem and the counties to the north and west while trading territory with the 11th around Marion, Lenoir, and Hickory.  The district also adds territory in northern Mecklenburg.  Virginia Foxx might have some difficulty here since the 5th has become a moderate amount more Democratic and undergoes a moderate to large change in territory, however this is due to her weakness as a candidate.  Even Foxx should be all right here, and a generic R will have little to no trouble.

Safe Republican

NC-6 (Teal)        Howard Coble (R)

41.0-57.9        75.6/12.8/7.8/1.9/0.4/1.5

The 6th keeps most of its base in Greensboro and suburban Guilford county while the only substantial changes include trading Moore for Chatham county and taking in some outer heavily Democratic precincts in Guilford so that the surrounding Republicans can be shored up. I accidentally drew Coble out of the 6th since he actually lives in Summerfield, but that shouldn’t really be a problem since he’s represented much of the district for decades and probably won’t serve that many more terms anyway. It will probably trend a little Democratic over the decade but should be safe for Coble or any other country club Republican.

Safe Republican

NC-7 (Gray)        Open/Mike McIntyre (D)

63.3-36.0        41.0/37.2/9.5/1.5/8.2/2.6

And here is where the fun begins. I could have just done an 8-3-2 map leaving Shuler and McIntyre in competitive districts, or another configuration of 9-4, but after playing around with DRA a little, I realized it was possible to draw a 4th (heavily gerrymandered) majority-minority district in southeastern NC. So here goes:

The 7th loses most of the whiter parts of its current configuration and adds minority heavy areas to the north in Goldsboro and to the west in territory from the current 8th. Fayetteville is now almost entirely within the 7th. All but one voting block within Mike McIntyre’s hometown of Lumberton is included in the 7th, but that is pretty much irrelevant because McIntyre wouldn’t last two seconds in a primary here seeing as how the district is significantly more Democratic than the current 7th.

Overall, the only reason the GOP would consider allowing for this configuration is that it unambiguously removes Kissell and protects Ellmers and Myrick, but at the cost of securing a seat for a significantly more liberal Democrat than McIntyre.

Safe Democratic

NC-8 (Steel Blue)        Open

40.7-58.4        68.3/18.2/9.5/1.6/0.4/1.9

The 8th here bears no resemblance to the current district and reflects just how screwed Larry Kissell would be since the surrounding districts have gobbled up the entirety of his district.  The new 8th stretches from Wake to Onslow county and is composed mostly of territory from the current 2nd and 3rd. Before 2010 there would have been the chance for a Mike McIntyre clone the right type of Democrat to win here, but Dems got absolutely slaughtered here in 2010 and have a bit of a weak bench.

Safe Republican

NC-9 (Cyan)        Sue Myrick (R)

40.4-58.7        75.8/11.3/8.6/2.4/0.3/1.6

Due to population gains the 9th had to shed a lot of territory and does so by losing all of its area in Gaston and northern Mecklenburg counties.  Since the 9th showed quite a large shift in voting patterns between 04 and 08 I added more conservative territory from the dead carcass of Larry Kissell’s 8th district with the 9th now containing blood red territory to the east of Charlotte.  This district should be safe for Myrick, but it would be interesting to see how it trends over the whole decade due to large gains in population.

Safe Republican

NC-10 (Magenta)        Patrick McHenry (R)

41.9-57.1        78.1/11.4/6.2/2.3/0.3/1.6

The 11th changes significantly in order to allow Republicans to remove Shuler in the neighboring 11th. The district picks up the remnants of the old 9th in Gaston County and reaches an arm into Ashville to annex the majority of its Democratic base.  To compensate for this lunge towards the left, the 10th district trades Democratic leaning Hickory, Lenoir, and Morganton to the 5th in exchange for more dyed-in-the-wool Republicans.  The district becomes significantly more Democratic from extremely safe Republican to just pretty safe Republican, but McHenry now represents a lot of new territory and could be vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Safe Republican

NC-11 (Chartreuse)        Heath Shuler (D)

41.7-57.0        87.6/3.9/5.0/0.7/1.4/1.6

Ah, the other beauty of this map. Since the 9th is able to shift east unhindered by Larry Kissell’s 8th, the 10th is able to also shift east, which provides ultra conservative territory for the 11th to pick up. Ashville and Marion are almost entirely removed from the 11th which deprives Shuler of Democratic base voters, however it is plausible that his appeal to conservative-leaning Dems and Indies could provide a path to victory. Generic R would be heavily favored against Shuler and all but guaranteed against a Generic D.

Likely Republican vs. Shuler

Safe Republican vs. Generic D

NC-12 (Medium Blue)        Mel Watt (D)

73.2-26.1        35.3/43.1/15.3/3.9/0.3/2.1

The 12th loses all of Greensboro, High Point, and Thomasville, but picks up large parts of eastern Charlotte from the old 8th.  There’s nothing else but some minor changes, such as not hugging the county line between Charlotte and Winston-Salem to free up extra Republican voters. There’s no point in crying about not splitting towns and counties when it doesn’t constitute a back door veto on a Democratic gerrymander. Republicans have stated that they won’t draw anything like the current 8th, but it still remains an effective vote sink when drawn from Charlotte to Winston-Salem.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 (Salmon)        Open/Brad Miller (D)

42.0-57.0        77.8/13.0/5.9/1.6/0.3/1.4

Karma has it out for Brad Miller with this map, although pretty much any GOP effort guarantees he’s finished, which is quite a shame.  The 13th loses all of its heavily democratic territory in Greensboro, Burlington, and Cary, and most of it in Raleigh in exchange for the most GOP-friendly parts of northern Wake County. Additionally, the 13th moves westward to pick up large amounts of territory from the 5th by extending across to Yadkin County. Since I didn’t know exactly where Brad Miller lives in central Raleigh, it’s possible he lives in either the 1st or the 13th, but that’s utterly irrelevant since the 13th no longer contains his urban bases in Wake and Guilford counties.

Safe Republican

Intended result:

Summary:

Republicans shore up all of their incumbents, most importantly Ellmers and Myrick, while dividing up fast growing Wake and Mecklenburg counties among various buffered districts. Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, and Mike McIntyre are dead men walking. Miller gets replaced by a conservative Republican, Kissell has no district and a conservative Republican wins the new 8th to the east. McIntyre is defeated in the primary by a much more liberal, minority Democrat if he runs in the new 7th. Heath Shuler likely loses to a Republican without the Democratic base in Ashville. Furthermore, by removing Shuler, Kissell, and McIntyre in 2012 the GOP prevents a statewide challenge from a moderate-to-conservative Democratic sitting congressman in 2016.

This configuration is made entirely possible by its four majority minority Dem vote sinks which lock in the 9-4 split, assuming that Shuler loses, for most, if not all of the decade. Additionally, the 4th is a 77%!!!1!1! Obama district yet only 54.2% VAP minority, and is an ambitious radical, socialist, atheist Marxist’s Democrat’s wet dream.

Now… obviously this map would draw myriad lawsuits after all of two seconds, and state Republicans have claimed they won’t attempt anything like the current 12th, but they were also clamoring for independent redistricting until they found themselves in the majority. It’s not sleek and pretty, and it could only care a little less about city and county lines, but if this map has any chance of surviving in court then having 9 safe seats is much smarter for the Republicans than having 8 or 10 shaky seats with the added bonus that anyone who won the 4 Dem districts would likely be too liberal to win statewide.

And as an added bonus, North Carolina with 5 majority minority districts:



All are majority minority voting age population, and the first remains majority black, but barely so.

What do you all think?

After only two years of a slim 32-30 Democratic majority in the New York State Senate, Republicans in this past election barely took back the chamber that they had previously held continuously for more than forty years. People around the country endlessly ask the question: how is it possible that Republicans have a majority of state senators in a state as “blue” as New York?

There is no simple answer to that question. Sufficed it to say, one of the most important factors is gerrymandering. Republicans did a masterful job of redistricting a very favorable map for themselves ten years ago. The current map is littered with Republican senators holding light blue Obama districts all over Long Island (9-0 Republican) and Upstate (21-4). With the great help of Daves Redistricting App 2.0, I set about in the task of redistricting New York's State Senate districts with three main goals in mind: 1.) connect Democratic towns and cities in Long Island, 2.) preserve majority-minority districts in New York City, and 3.) consolidate small cities Upstate. Much of the basis for my analysis comes from jeffmd's excellent post on the State Senate written in 2009 in which he looked at the numbers for the current districts. Inspecting the presidential toplines, it was determined that the cutoff between Republican and Democratic districts is about 58-60% Obama. My map uses that percentage as the benchmark. It would create 10 Democratic districts at over 58% in Upstate New York and another four at over 62% in Long Island. Combined with New York City, this would be more than enough to give Democrats a two-to-one majority in the State Senate. So without further ado, here is what I came up with:

 

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%		O%	M%
D	1	Hamptons	318633	66	11	3	17	2		62	38
R	2	Brookhaven	318569	89	2	2	6	1		49	51
R	3	Lindenhurst	318229	89	2	1	6	1		47	53
D	4	Huntington	318189	60	17	3	18	2		63	36
R	5	Smithtown	318668	91	1	3	4	1		46	54
R	6	Massapequa	318525	90	0	3	5	1		44	56
D	7	Great Neck	318243	67	12	8	11	2		64	35
D	8	Hempstead	318681	51	26	3	18	2		69	31
R	9	Garden City	318620	86	1	5	7	1		43	56
D	10	Jamaica	317030	9	55	9	15	12	Black Majority	92	8
D	11	Bayside	317619	60	5	18	13	3		62	37
D	12	Astoria	315924	42	5	13	34	5		78	21
D	13	East Elmhurst	318053	15	9	16	57	3	Hispanic Majority	81	18
D	14	St. Albans	318613	22	55	4	13	5	Black Majority	82	17
D	15	Forest Hills	316488	59	5	15	17	5		63	36
D	16	Flushing	317432	24	3	48	21	4	Asian Plurality	68	31
D	17	Bushwick	317715	13	13	7	60	6	Hispanic Majority	87	12
D	18	Bedford-Stuyvesant	317273	26	51	2	17	4	Black Majority	90	9
D	19	Canarsie	317538	28	52	3	14	3	Black Majority	83	17
D	20	Brooklyn Heights	318797	25	51	3	18	3	Black Majority	93	6
D	21	Prospect	318898	19	51	5	22	3	Black Majority	92	7
D	22	East Flatbush	317890	21	56	6	12	5	Black Majority	85	14
R	23	Homecrest	316816	81	1	11	6	2		33	67
D	24	Brighton Beach	317711	56	6	21	13	3		55	44
D	25	North Shore	318201	49	13	10	24	4		66	34
R	26	Arden Heights	323582	84	1	6	7	1		37	62
D	27	East Village	311559	45	6	27	19	3		84	15
D	28	Upper East Side	309905	83	3	8	5	2		75	24
D	29	Upper West Side	310495	73	5	8	11	2		85	14
D	30	Spanish Harlem	309111	22	23	3	50	2	Hispanic Majority	91	8
D	31	Bedford Park	308720	12	19	5	61	3	Hispanic Majority	90	9
D	32	Harlem	309836	2	61	1	33	2	Black Majority	97	2
D	33	Washington Heights	309056	22	12	4	60	2	Hispanic Majority	90	9
D	34	Soundview	309592	10	28	3	55	3	Hispanic Majority	90	10
D	35	Belmont	308704	21	21	3	53	2	Hispanic Majority	84	16
D	36	Mount Vernon	309493	14	60	2	20	4	Black Majority	92	8
D	37	Harrison	309361	73	7	5	13	2		61	38
D	38	Yonkers	309287	56	14	5	21	3		64	35
D	39	Ossining	309454	76	7	3	13	1		59	40
D	40	Clarkstown	317946	72	10	5	10	2		53	47
R	41	Carmel	321768	88	3	2	6	1		46	53
D	42	Poughkeepsie	317728	71	12	2	13	2		58	41
D	43	Kingston	320216	85	6	1	6	2		60	38
D	44	Troy	317388	86	6	3	3	2		58	40
D	45	Plattsburgh	317612	94	2	1	2	2		58	40
D	46	Albany	315314	84	9	2	3	1		63	35
R	47	Moreau	317511	96	1	1	1	1		49	49
R	48	Rome	317470	91	4	1	3	1		44	54
D	49	Syracuse	317634	80	12	2	3	3		62	36
R	50	Utica	317412	91	4	1	2	1		54	45
R	51	Herkimer	316544	96	1	0	2	1		45	53
R	52	Blooming Grove	319845	90	3	1	4	1		46	52
D	53	Ithaca	318178	87	4	3	3	2		61	38
R	54	Penn Yan	317011	95	2	0	2	2		47	51
R	55	Perinton	316789	92	3	3	2	1		51	47
D	56	Rochester	318289	60	26	3	9	2		72	27
R	57	Corning	317311	95	1	1	1	2		42	56
D	58	Amherst	317906	80	14	2	2	1		61	38
R	59	Hamburg	318084	94	1	1	2	2		49	49
D	60	Buffalo	317816	67	23	1	6	3		69	29
R	61	Batavia	318545	94	2	0	2	1		41	57
R	62	Greece	318537	93	3	1	2	1		46	52

Note, also, that I broke the state into four regions for simplicity: Upstate, Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan, Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island, and Long Island. Here is another table that breaks down the numbers by region:

Region	County	Population	Districts	(+/-)	316280	(+/-)
Long Island	Suffolk	1516544
	Nassau	1349555
		2866099	9	0	318323	0.6
New York City	Queens	2320449
	Brooklyn	2588844
	Staten Island	496246
		5405539	17	1	317972	0.5
	Manhattan	1646675
	Bronx	1415056
	Westchester	961565
		4023296	13	1	309484	-2.1
Ustate New York	Rockland	301308
	Other	7010169
		7311477	23	-2	317890	0.5

As you can see from the table, I redraw the map so that NYC gained two seats at the expense of Upstate New York, while Long Island remained the same at 9 districts. The population of each district in each region is very equal with the greatest deviation of -2.1% below the ideal population in the region of Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan. The rest of the seats compensate for this by being about .5% above the ideal. Before discussing the statewide changes that would occur under this redistricting plan, first let me go through the four regions themselves…

Long Island

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%	O%	M%
D	1	Hamptons	318633	66	11	3	17	2	62	38
R	2	Brookhaven	318569	89	2	2	6	1	49	51	Ken LaValle-1, Port Jefferson
R	3	Lindenhurst	318229	89	2	1	6	1	47	53	Lee Zeldin-3, Shirley	Owen Johnson-4, West Babylon
D	4	Huntington	318189	60	17	3	18	2	63	36
R	5	Smithtown	318668	91	1	3	4	1	46	54	John Flanagan-2, East Northport	Carl Marcellino-5, Syosset
R	6	Massapequa	318525	90	0	3	5	1	44	56
D	7	Great Neck	318243	67	12	8	11	2	64	35
D	8	Hempstead	318681	51	26	3	18	2	69	31	Charles Fuschillo-8, Merrick	Dean Skelos-9, Rockville Centre
R	9	Garden City	318620	86	1	5	7	1	43	56	Kemp Hannon-6, Garden City	Jack Martins-7, Mineola

(The table above is a portion derived from the table in the intoduction. However, included in this table and the three that are to follow it, the number for each district has a link to a picture of that district's new boundaries. Also, I included the incumbent senators in whichever district that they would live in if my map went into affect. Each senator's party is denoted by the font color, and the data entries include the number district that each senator currently represents in the State Senate, as well as where they live and a link to their official biographies.)

Long Island has been the province of Republicans in the New York State Senate for many decades. At the height of the Democratic wave in 2008, Long Island elected only two Democratic senators out of nine total. Both of them lost their seats in this last election, returning Long Island to its usual position of having only Republicans represent them in the State Senate. It's not as though Long Island is that conservative overall — indeed, all but one of the current nine senate districts in Nassau and Suffolk Counties was won by Obama. Republicans have been very effective in diluting Democratic votes, thereby allowing many independents who fear a complete Democratically-controlled Albany to elect Republican candidates for the State Senate.

Of the eight Obama-voting Long Island Senate districts, none of them were won by more than about 55%, which is a very managable percentage for incumbent GOP senators, including the new Majority Leader Dean Skelos, who hails from Rockville Centre in Nassau County. In this region, the goal was to be realistic about what could be achieved and very cautious in achieving it. I drew up four Democratic districts each at over 62% for Obama.

Three out of the four new Democratic districts that I created are left open for any Dem who wants them. The most Democratic district in the region — SD-8, based in Hempstead and Long Beach — is occupied by Skelos and Senator Charles Fuschillo. As the Black and Hispanic populations are spread throughout Long Island, each district retains their white majority.

 

Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%		O%	M%
D	10	Jamaica	317030	9	55	9	15	12	Black Majority	92	8	Shirley Huntley-10, Jamaica
D	11	Bayside	317619	60	5	18	13	3		62	37	Tony Avella-11, Whitestone
D	12	Astoria	315924	42	5	13	34	5		78	21	Michael Gianaris-12, Astoria
D	13	East Elmhurst	318053	15	9	16	57	3	Hispanic Majority	81	18	Jose Peralta-13, East Elmhurst
D	14	St. Albans	318613	22	55	4	13	5	Black Majority	82	17	Malcolm Smith-14, St. Albans
D	15	Forest Hills	316488	59	5	15	17	5		63	36
D	16	Flushing	317432	24	3	48	21	4	Asian Plurality	68	31	Toby Ann Stavisky-16, Flushing
D	17	Bushwick	317715	13	13	7	60	6	Hispanic Majority	87	12	Joseph Addabbo-15, Ozone Park	Martin Malave Dilan-17, Bushwick
D	18	Bedford-Stuyvesant	317273	26	51	2	17	4	Black Majority	90	9
D	19	Canarsie	317538	28	52	3	14	3	Black Majority	83	17	John Sampson-19, Canarsie
D	20	Brooklyn Heights	318797	25	51	3	18	3	Black Majority	93	6	Valmanette Montgomery-18, Boerum Hills	Eric Adams-20, Crown Heights	Daniel Squadron-25, Brooklyn Heights
D	21	Prospect	318898	19	51	5	22	3	Black Majority	92	7	Kevin Parker-21, Flatbush
D	22	East Flatbush	317890	21	56	6	12	5	Black Majority	85	14
R	23	Homecrest	316816	81	1	11	6	2		33	67	Martin Golden-22, Bay Ridge
D	24	Brighton Beach	317711	56	6	21	13	3		55	44	Carl Kruger-27, Sheepshead Bay
D	25	North Shore	318201	49	13	10	24	4		66	34	Diane Savino-23, Staten Island
R	26	Arden Heights	323582	84	1	6	7	1		37	62	Andrew Lanza-24, Great Kills

While much of Staten Island remains a stubborn Republican bulwark, Queens and Brooklyn voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama in 2008. They are home to most of New York City's black population, as well as significant Hispanic and Asian communities. Since this area of the state is so heavily Democratic, the overriding goal for this region was not to squeeze out more Democratic seats, but to strengthen a few shaky ones and create new Voting Rights Act (VRA) districts wherever possible. Under my plan, this region would gain one additional seat as a result of new population estimates given by the Census Bureau. 

This map preserves the two African-American majority districts in Queens and adds a fifth black majority district to the four that already exist in Brooklyn. One of the best things about this map is that it creates an Asian plurality district that is based in Flushing and spread throughout many parts of Queens. The 16th district is currently represented by Sen. Toby Ann Stavisky, but if the Asian community were able to unite around a consensus candidate, she could well be displaced in a primary. I found it impossible to make the 16th District any more heavily Asian than 48%, but the next largest racial community was 24% of the population, so if Stavisky were to retire, this would most likely go to an Asian candidate. It also preserves the two Hispanic majority districts in Queens and Brooklyn.

The recently-flipped 11th and 15th Districts would be strengthened for the Democrats. Carl Kruger's 27th district in southern Brooklyn would be radically changed into the 24th district, both strengthening our vote there and also allowing for a primary challenge to the less-than-venerable “Amigo.” At 55% for Obama, the 24th is one of two districts that I created below the magic 58% line that I still counted in the Democratic column — largely because presidential voting patterns in southern Brooklyn are volatile and not necessarily indicative of a broader ideological differentiation. What Republican-leaning communities that do exist here would be consolidated into two large McCain majority districts: the 23rd in southern Brooklyn and the 26th in southern Staten Island, both of which are currently represented by Republican Senators anyway.

 

Manhattan, Bronx, and Westchester County

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%		O%	M%
D	27	East Village	311559	45	6	27	19	3		84	15
D	28	Upper East Side	309905	83	3	8	5	2		75	24	Liz Krueger-26, Upper East Side
D	29	Upper West Side	310495	73	5	8	11	2		85	14	Thomas Duane-29, Upper West Side
D	30	Spanish Harlem	309111	22	23	3	50	2	Hispanic Majority	91	8	Jose Serrano-28, Spanish Harlem
D	31	Bedford Park	308720	12	19	5	61	3	Hispanic Majority	90	9	Gustavo Rivera-33, Kingsbridge Heights
D	32	Harlem	309836	2	61	1	33	2	Black Majority	97	2	Bill Perkins-30, Harlem
D	33	Washington Heights	309056	22	12	4	60	2	Hispanic Majority	90	9	Adriano Espaillat-31, Washington Heights
D	34	Soundview	309592	10	28	3	55	3	Hispanic Majority	90	10	Ruben Diaz-32, Soundview	Jeffrey Klein-34, Throgs Neck
D	35	Belmont	308704	21	21	3	53	2	Hispanic Majority	84	16
D	36	Mount Vernon	309493	14	60	2	20	4	Black Majority	92	8	Ruth Hassel-Thompson-36, Williamsbridge
D	37	Scarsdale	309361	73	7	5	13	2		61	38	Suzi Oppenheimer-37, Mamaroneck
D	38	Yonkers	309287	56	14	5	21	3		64	35	Andrea Stewart-Cousins-35, Yonkers
D	39	Ossining	309454	76	7	3	13	1		59	40

This region, encompassing Manhattan, Bronx, and Westchester County, is the most strongly Democratic area in one of the most Democratic-leaning states in the Union. It is home to the largest Hispanic communities in the Northeast United States — mostly Peurto Rican, but also Dominican, Mexican, and other Latin American heritages. The white communities here also tend to be much more liberal than their counterparts in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island. That is especially the case in Manhattan and Westchester, which are home to many educated urban white professionals.

All twelve districts here are represented by Democrats in the State Senate. That would stay the same under my plan, except for the addition of a thirteenth Democratic district. This is the second distric that comes at the expense of Upstate New York — the other one being in Brooklyn.

Both majority African-American districts would remain intact. The map also adds another Hispanic-majority district to the four that currently exist.

Upstate New York

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%	O%	M%
D	40	Clarkstown	317946	72	10	5	10	2	53	47	David Carlucci-38, Clarkstown
R	41	Carmel	321768	88	3	2	6	1	46	53	Greg Ball-40, Patterson
D	42	Poughkeepsie	317728	71	12	2	13	2	58	41	Bill Larkin-39, New Windsor	Stephen Saland-41, Poughkeepsie
D	43	Kingston	320216	85	6	1	6	2	60	38
D	44	Troy	317388	86	6	3	3	2	58	40	Hugh Farley-44, Schenectady
D	45	Plattsburgh	317612	94	2	1	2	2	58	40	Betty Little-45, Queensbury	Patty Ritchie-48, Heuvelton
D	46	Albany	315314	84	9	2	3	1	63	35	Neil Breslin-46, Albany	James Seward-51, Milford
R	47	Moreau	317511	96	1	1	1	1	49	49	Roy McDonald-43, Stillwater
R	48	Rome	317470	91	4	1	3	1	44	54	Joseph Griffo-47, Rome
D	49	Syracuse	317634	80	12	2	3	3	62	36	David Valesky-49, Oneida	John DeFrancisco-50, Syracuse
R	50	Utica	317412	91	4	1	2	1	54	45
R	51	Herkimer	316544	96	1	0	2	1	45	53
R	52	Blooming Grove	319845	90	3	1	4	1	46	52	John Bonacic-42, Mount Hope
D	53	Ithaca	318178	87	4	3	3	2	61	38	Thomas Libous-52, Binghamton	Michael Nozzollio-54, Fayette
R	54	Sodus	317011	95	2	0	2	2	47	51
R	55	Perinton	316789	92	3	3	2	1	51	47	James Alesi-55, East Rochester
D	56	Rochester	318289	60	26	3	9	2	72	27
R	57	Corning	317311	95	1	1	1	2	42	56	Thomas O'Mara-53, Big Flats	Catharine Young-57, Olean
D	58	Amherst	317906	80	14	2	2	1	61	38	Tim Kennedy-58, Buffalo
R	59	Hamburg	318084	94	1	1	2	2	49	49	Pat Gallivan-59, Elma	Mike Ranzenhofer-61, Clarence
D	60	Buffalo	317816	67	23	1	6	3	69	29	Mark Grisanti-60, Buffalo
R	61	Batavia	318545	94	2	0	2	1	41	57
R	62	Greece	318537	93	3	1	2	1	46	52	Joe Robach-56, Greece	George Maziarz-62, Newfane

Here more than anywhere else in the state, Republicans dominate in local and state politics. Recently, Democrats lost five of their ten Upstate congressional districts. This is also where Republicans picked up two Senate seats and gained about a half-dozen Assembly seats last fall. Nevertheless, there are still many strongly Democratic areas of Upstate New York: mostly medium- and small-sized cities and liberal inner-suburbs that dot the landscape from the Hudson Valley to the Great Lakes. The goal was to consolidate those areas and churn out as many new Democratic districts as possible. Here again, as in Long Island, the minority ethnic populations are too spread out to create any VRA districts. Instead, this is where the great bulk of Republican Senate seats would hit the buzz-saw.

The region as a whole would lose two seats, mostly from the equalization of populations in each Senate district — which Republicans largely disregarded during the last redistricting ten years ago — as well as the much greater population growth downstate.

I was able to get about half of these 23 districts in the Democratic column. The 40th District, based in Rockland County, is the second of only two districts in this entire map (the other being in southern Brooklyn) that I counted as a Democratic district even though Obama's vote there was less than 58%. The reason is that this seat was one of very few elected offices around the country that Democrats actually gained from the Republicans in this last election. The seat would also bolster its Democratic vote through redistricting, so I figured, if David Carlucci could pick it up for the Dems in a year like 2010, odds are pretty good that he'll be able to hold it in a lot of other political environments.

I was able to get ten of these districts at over 58% for Obama. One of the most certain Democratic gains under this plan would be my native 56th Senate District, based in the City of Rochester and the Town of Brighton. Republican Senator Joe Robach has vexingly been able to hold onto this district for years despite the fact that it voted by a two-to-one margin for Barack Obama in 2008 (66%-33%). Under this plan, Robach's hometown of Greece would be removed from the 56th and replaced by the Democratic-leaning suburbs of Gates and Irondequoit.

The four seats that we do hold here would be strengthened. The 60th District, which is even more Democratic district than the 56th, voted out a Democratic incumbent last fall. This district would remain largely unchanged in the hope that a different Dem might likely be able to win it back from freshman Republican Senator Mark Grisanti.

As is convention when State Senate seats are redistricted in Upstate New York, I left every town intact. In addition, only two cities are divided between different districts: Buffalo and Tonawanda (just south of Niagra Falls). The self-imposed requirement that towns be left undivided was a major constraint, but it would probably help a plan like this to survive a court challenge.

 

Summary:

A major drawback of this map is that without realizing it, I redraw the lines with no attention paid to which district each senator lives in. Hence, a lot of Democratic primaries and games of musical chairs would happen in this plan that might otherwise have been avoided. But, by the time I realized it, it was too late. In any event, many more Republicans get stuck together than Democrats, so that serves to counter-balance this problem.

This map pays tribute to the Voting Rights Act by creating three new majority-minority district: a new Black-majority district in Brooklyn, an Asian-plurality district in Queens, and a fifth Hispanic-majority district in the Bronx.

My plan also evens out the population disparities between regions by making every seat within only a few thousands residents off from the ideal population of 316,280 people per district. In applying a fairer division among the state's population and using new population estimates given by the Census, Upstate New York lost two districts to New York City.

I am confident that if this plan went into affect at the next election, Democrats would hold a large 43-19 majority in the New York State Senate for many years to come. But alas, Republicans won back this chamber last year and thus, it is not to be. However, I'm still convinced that with new population estimates, it will be extremely difficult for Republicans to redistrict another map that would allow them to retain the majority. Their luck has simply run out. They may be able to preserve many incumbents in Upstate and Long Island, but remember that Democrats only need to gain one seat for them to retake the majority (a 31-31 tie would allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Bob Duffy to act as the tie-breaker). And as I've shown through this analysis, downstate will have to gain two seats for the next redistricting plan to be in compliance with the Census.

It took many practice tries, but I believe this map provides the strongest possible plan for a large Democratic majority in the Senate that not only respects existing VRA districts, but also creates three new ones. In short, this is the ideal Democratic redistricting plan for the New York State Senate.

A hyper-partisan Democratic gerrymander of Texas.  Probably not VRA compliant and Texas might even have some laws against such whacked-outness.  However when drawing hyper-partisan maps I like to take “screw the other party over as much as possible and forget the law” approach.  This another full Texas map, the first I drew was before partisan data was available.

The two crowning achievements of this map are the three Democrats out of Travis County (City of Austin), which is something I posted earlier and worked to further perfect, and six Democrats out of Harris County (City of Houston).  

Every Republican seat is a major vote sink, only 4 of the 14 GOP seats are less than 70% McCain.  Which means there are 10 seats that are R+24 or higher including what would be the most Republican district in the country at R+30.

For the sake of classifying districts 59% Obama and higher are labeled as Safe D, 56-58% is Likely D and <56% is Lean D.  There is only one district that is less than 56% Obama than isn’t a GOP vote sink.

Overall this is a 22-14 Democratic Map with one district that could be won by the GOP in a wave year.  So I think the worst case scenario for the Dems would be 21-15

District 13

Obama 23%

McCain 76%

69% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic

The most Republican district in the state and probably the most conservative in the country.  Interestingly enough despite being a R+30 district it is 22% Hispanic.

Safe R

District 17

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

67% White, 5% Black, 26% Hispanic

A R+27 West Texas District that is 26% Hispanic.  Includes the cities of Midland, Odessa and San Angelo.

Safe R

District 19

Obama 27%

McCain 72%

67% White, 6% Black, 25% Hispanic

This is a third West Texas district that is over 20% Hispanic.  That definitely doesn’t help in this district.  Includes the cities of Abilene and Lubbock

Safe R

 

District 4

Obama 31%

McCain 68%

81% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic

North East Texas and part of Collin County

Safe R

District 5

Obama 28%

McCain 71%

76% White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic

Tyler-Longview based district for Louie Gohmert.  Hey we got to keep the most entertaining Republicans right!

Safe R

District 8

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

81% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic

Includes most of the very fast growing Montgomery County.

Safe R

District 11

Obama 28%

McCain 71%

74% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic

This is my favorite GOP vote sink based on unattractiveness.  It gets all the Republican vote that would have ended up jeporadizing district 10, 31 and 9 if no counties were split.

Safe R

District 14

Obama 29%

McCain 70%

73% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic

Another GOP vote sink near Houston.  

Safe R

District 25

Obama 27%

McCain 72%

78% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic

East Texas GOP district.  

District 35

Obama 26%

McCain 73%

78% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic

Like the rest of the GOP districts, another vote sink carefully drawn.

District 16

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

24% White, 3% Black, 70% Hispanic

Most of El Paso but I also used 16 to grab some of the more Republican counties from district 23 in order to help make 23 more Democratic.

Safe D

District 23

Obama 55%

McCain 44%

27% White, 2% Black, 69% Hispanic

Shedding some of the more Republican counties and picking up part of Southern El Paso shifts this district 4 points towards the Democrats compared to it’s previous 51% Obama/48% McCain breakdown.  In 2010 Conseco beat Rodriguiz by 5 points.

Lean D

District 36

Obama 29%

McCain 70%

80% White, 2% Black, 16 Hispanic

Contains a decent amount of Lamar Smiths current district including the conservative parts of North Bexar County.

Safe R  

District 15

59% Obama

40% McCain

19% White, 1% Black, 78% Hispanic

Most of McAllen and the most Republican parts of Corpus Christi are here.  

Safe D

District 27

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

22% White, 2% Black, 74% Hispanic

Solomon Ortiz’s loss to Blake Farenthold was definitely a sign of a GOP wave.  The old district 27 was 53%/46%.  I would want to rate this district Safe D since Farenthold won by 1 point and the shift by 5 probably would have safed Ortiz, but I’d be breaking break my own rules.

Likely D

District 28

Obama 59%

McCain 41%

19% White, 3% Black, 76% Hispanic

This district shifts a few more points Democratic from his current 56%/43% district.  It was difficult to get a good image capture of this district since it is drawn like it is.

Safe D

District 20

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

30% White, 5% Black, 61% Hispanic

I tried so hard to get two 59% Obama districts in San Antonio and just couldn’t do it.  58% is really close and as much as I want to label this a safe D district I can’t since my intro says 59% will be considered a safe D district.

Likely D

District 21

Obama 58%

McCain 41%

33% White, 10% Black, 54% Hispanic

Eastern San Antonio and southern Bexar county.  

Likely D

I would have zoomed in more but that would have cut off several of the districts originating from Houston.

District 2

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

36% White, 26% Black, 33% Hispanic

Very Democratic part of North Houston and the Democratic parts of Huntsville in East Texas

Safe D

District 7

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

35% White, 24% Black, 30% Hispanic, 11% Asian

District 9

Obama 59%

McCain 41%

38% White, 27% Black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian

Stretches from Galveston up into Brazos County, most of the Democratic vote is in Fort Bend.  Interesting note is this district is 12% Asian

Safe D

District 18

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

39% White, 25% Black, 28% Hispanic

South and West Houston district.

Safe D

District 22

Obama 60%

McCain 40%

39% White, 32% Black, 26% Hispanic

The most Democratic district partially in Houston also includes Beaumont, Port Arthur, Hudson and Nacodoches.  

Safe D

District 29

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

29% White, 10% Black, 57% Hispanic

A good piece of Green’s current district is in the new 29, he should have no problem winning here.

Safe D

Like Houston I had to take this photo to account for the sprawly districts

District 10

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

52% White, 6% Black, 38% Hispanic

This district includes most of Lloyd Doggetts current district in South Austin and it sort of stretches all the way down into South Texas.  

Safe D

District 31

Obama 58%

McCain 40%

47% White, 24% Black, 25% Hispanic

Squeezing a third Democratic district out of Travis County was great.  This district includes parts of Travis County, Waco, Killeen, Temple, College Station

Likely D

District 33

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

67% White, 7% Black, 19% Hispanic

Most of Austin is in this district including Round Rock.

Safe D

District 3

Obama 60%

McCain 38%

39% White, 18% Black, 38% Hispanic

The most Democratic district in the state with Obama winning by a 22 point margin.  It loops around the very conservative Park Cities and Preston Hollow area of Dallas County

District 12

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

45% White, 21% Black, 29% Hispanic

Contains much of the City of Fort Worth.  I’d like to see Lon Burnam run in this one.  He’s a very liberal State Representative in Fort Worth.

Safe D

District 24

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

53% White, 18% Black, 21% Hispanic

Contains the Democratic parts of Arlington in Tarrant County and Southwest Dallas County.   The college town Denton is also roped into the district.

Safe D

District 30

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

40% White, 19% Black, 35% Hispanic

Mostly West Dallas including southern parts of the city and Democratic pieces of Collin/Denton County

Safe D

District 32

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

45% White, 28% Black, 21% Hispanic

South Dallas and some eastern Dallas suburbs including Garland.  I think Eddie-Bernice Johnson would run in this one.

Safe D

Well it happen?  No, but a Democrat can dream 🙂

File this under: “crazy gerrymanders that have no chance of happening”. Here are two majority-minority districts drawn in my home region of northern virginia:

True to the original spirit of gerrmandering my new districts look kind of like a pink dragon (the 10th) breathing green fire (the 11th) down along the I-95.

Demographics:

VA-10:

49% White, 9% Black, 0% Amer-Indian, 17% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 2% other

VA-11:

49% White, 21% Black, 0% Amer-Indian, 9% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 2% other

I suppose you could say that these districts are not “truly” majority minority, because they are white plurality and probably have a white-majority electorate due to lower nonwhite turnout. Those are both valid and logical points, but this is not supposed to be a valid and logical map so who cares. And the white-plurality thing is probably bound to happen no matter what, as many of the minority-heavy areas of NoVA are a giant mix of black, asian, and hispanic populations. There are a lot of precincts there, especially along the Columbia Pike corridor, that are almost split 25/25/25/25 white/black/hispanic/asian, give or take about 10% for each race, and some precincts down in Woodbridge/Dale City that are close to 33/33/33 white/black/hispanic.

The one problem with this map is that both districts are about 40,000 under population target. That is admittedly pushing it in terms of pop deviation, but it seems to be just barely tolerable. Any higher and the districts go above 50% white. If we were at a point where legislatures are going to these extents to gerrymander districts, I doubt anyone would be that worried about a 40,000 person deviation.

I propose that Obama pick up FDR’s old idea of packing the Supreme Court, appoint a bunch of hardcore liberals to the bench, then have Eric Holder sue Bob McDonnell to force him to draw districts like this, creating five majority-minority districts in Virginia. After that he can move on to suing Jerry Brown to get 40 majority minority districts out of California.

The Land of Lincoln is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise gloomy redistricting cycle.  Through Governor Quinn’s come-from-behind narrow reeelection victory, we have the trifecta in this state.  At the same time, the GOP elected five freshmen congressmen from Illinois, some in districts like the 17th, that have historically elected Democrats.  Before these congressmen can get situated, they will be put through the ringer of a partisan reapportionment.

Here are my basic assumptions in drawing this map:

1) As one of the few states where Democrats can make a big difference, Illinois Democrats will squeeze out as much seats as possible.  Realistically, Maryland will only net us one more seat (7-1 seems more realistic than 8-0) and in the other states we control like MA we actually will lose a seat.  Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is an old-school Democratic pol; he knows a thing or two about screwing the Republicans and he will.  Unlike 10 years ago when Denny Hastert could deliver goodies to Chicago and thus needed to be placated, there is no reason to accommodate any Republicans, and there will be no accommodation.

2) A second Hispanic seat is almost inevitable, given the VRA and the explosive growth of the Latino population in Chicago.  But see #3.

3) As Madigan’s boy, Lipinski will be given another seat that he can win.  He will not be drawn out, which is more geographically logical, because he is Madigan’s boy.  Don’t know about Madigan and Quigley, but a Democrat is not going to sacrifice a seat here.  Instead, I drew Peter Roskam out of a seat; the 6th now joins the 4th as Chicago’s 2nd Hispanic seat.

4) Of the incumbent Democrats who got defeated in 2010, Debbie Halvorson will get the sweetest deal?  Why?  She’s a former majority leader (the #2 position in the caucus under Emil Jones) in the State Senate and thus in my view still has clout in Springfield.  Phil Hare will get a better seat.  And I drew a better seat for Foster to return to.  That leaves out Melissa Bean.  Oh well – not much of a Democrat is she?  

5) Partisan numbers: when the time comes for these to be uploaded, could you please put in the Kerry 2004 numbers if you are also going to do Obama numbers?  Obama got about what an average national Democrat would get below Springfield (home state advantage cancels out with the latent racism that I see every day living now in Southern Illinois among want-to-be southerners down here) but north of Springfield, particularly north of I-80, he got vote totals in Republican counties that no other national Democrat would have gotten.  No Democratic presidential candidate wins 55% of the vote in DuPage… I can see 47-50% nowadays as that county is becoming more moderate, but Obama PVI gives Democrats false assurance about redistricting.  Perhaps my map is one of those, I don’t know.  I did try to retain as much as possible of each Democratic congress person’s base in Chicago so that they would still be more than okay.

So it is hard to say for sure that all my districts will elect what I think they will elect.  But I think I’ve drawn a map that yields 14 reasonably safe Democratic seats (all the seats that string in and out of Chicago plus Jerry Costello’s 12th downstate and the newly configured 15th downstate cities seat), 1 swing seat (for Melissa Bean – the 8th), and 3 uber-Republican seats (the 16th, the 18th, and the 13th).  Following Illinois custom, the Biggert seat (the current 13th) got axed and its number migrated downstate to become Shimkus’s new seat number.

Chicagoland

District 1 (blue) Rush-D

50% Black, 41% white

Even though Rush has got a past with the Black Panthers, he should be all-right here.  One of the goals that any Democratic gerrymander of Illinois must achieve is the unpacking of enough Democratic voters from Chicago so that Debby Halvorson can win again (and I created a tailor-made new 11th district right below Jesse Jackson Jr.’s 2nd to make that happen.  Goes now into southern DuPage County and includes the home of soon-to-be ex-congresswoman Judy Biggert.

District 2 (dark green) Jackson, Jr.-D

50% Black, 40% white

Same story here as with the newly configured First Congressional District.  Removes Hispanic and white areas of South Chicago and its suburbs, which now go in the 11th to help Halvorson make a comeback to Congress, and snakes into Will County a bit and then up like a U to parts of DuPage.  If Jackson still nurses his statewide aspirations, this would be the perfect district for that.

District 3 (purple) Lipinski-D

White 65%, Hispanic 20%, Black 9%



Extends a bit further into suburban Cook County into areas once in the former 13th (so probably slightly lean Republican) but balances that off of black voters in south Chicago not needed by any of the 3 VRA protected districts.  Lipinski should be fine in any case.

District 4 (red) Randy Hultgren (R) but not for much longer!!

61% Hispanic, 28% White, 7% Black



I believe Gutierrez lives in my new 6th district and that this district contains more Mexicans rather than Puerto Ricans (but can a Chicagoan please correct me on this if I am wrong).  Don’t know whether this would pass VRA muster or not, but I see no reason why a Hispanic could not get elected from here even if his/her voters are not 61% Hispanic.  

To accommodate Lipinski for all the reasons spelled out above, and to help crack Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, this district now snakes all the way to Hispanic-Aurora.  Still no crazier than the current configurations of the 4th district.

District 5 (yellow) Quigley-D

69% White, 14% Hispanic

I believe the Du Page areas I added to this district, along with Elk Grove, are at worst 50-50.  With both Quigley and Schakowsky I tried to maintain as much as possible their Chicago bases of support while rejiggering a bit the suburban parts.

District 6 (teal) Gutierrez-D

56% Hispanic, 33% White, 4% Black

Also snakes a bit now into DuPage County.  I believe this is all-right with the VRA given that the district contains a lot of Puerto Ricans who are already citizens?  Please, a Chicago resident, correct me if I am grossly in error here.

District 7 (grey) Davis-D

50% Black, 37% White

Finishes the job of cracking Peter Roskam with throwing his key base, Wheaton, in a black-majority district.  Some of the 37% who are white, though, are white liberals out of Oak Park, so Davis will not face a problem here.

District 8 (purple) 50-50 rematch between Bean and Walsh, thinking that I’ve given Bean somewhat of a slight advantage here but am not sure

Grabs Waukegan and subtracts a bit in heavily-Republican McHenry.  I think I’ve given Bean a ticket back to Congress – especially when one considers that we are dealing with Governor Quinn, and thus a Democratic trifecta with redistricting, because State Senator Jim Brady- Tea Party got about 50k fewer votes than did Mark Kirk in the collar counties.  Joe Walsh is a one-term fluke; these Republicans are moderate and will probably cross over to vote for Obama and Bean in two years just as they did to reelect my governor when everyone said he was toast.  Could have gone the extra mile and grabbed Elgin but I wanted to make sure that the 14th was amenable to voting for a Democrat as well, so I did not.

District 9 (light blue) Schakowsky-D

Extends a bit further north into Republican-leaning Wheeling Township, but I made sure to keep enough of Evanston and the Lake Front of Chicago – her bases of support.  Look a Democratic gerrymander is going to have to unpack the black VRA seats and Schakowsky’s liberal bastion if it Schakowsky is going to be able to have a chance of voting for Speaker Pelosi again.  And I think Schakowsky knows that and will play along.

District 10 (pink) possibly now a Democrat wins?

Added about 100,000 new Chicago coast residents that make it practically impossible for Dolt to win reelection here.  One of the two really wonderful benefits of unpacking Democrats in Chicago a bit.

District 11 (light green) VACANT (tailor-designed for Halvorson-D)

Condenses to just Will County (minus 3 Republican townships in the 2nd) so Kinzinger is drawn out of the seat but… wait… this is Halvorson’s base.  Adds a finger of about 150,000 Cook County residents to the seat and… voila… I think I’ve just created a district that voted for Obama probably in the 60% range now.  I’d dare Kinzinger to try to win from here.

The rest of northern Illinois

District 14 (brown-green) VACANT

Built a district that connects slightly Republican-leaning Kane County (which it is, minus Aurora), slightly-Democratic DeKalb next door (because of NIU), and added what I imagine is heavily Democratic Rockford to the mix.  Looks compact and probably is enough Democratic to elect Bill Foster should he wish to run again.  This is the district that I want to test the most with Kerry 04 numbers, though.

District 16 (green) Kinzinger (R) vs. Manzullo (R) vs. Schilling (R)

Northern Illinois GOP vote sink.  Did the petty thing and drew all three Republican congressmen from this region into the same district, leaving the 17th and the 14th next door both vacant.

District 17 (purple) VACANT (Phil Hare-D?  or is there another Quad Cities Democrat who is more good at not losing his seat)

Quad Cities, Peoria (but not the part of Peoria that our glam-congressman lives in), snakes through mildly Democratic Bureau and LaSalle Counties to grab Kankakee.  Still looks a bit fugly, but in some ways is an improvement over the current district’s configurations.  Besides, no more ultra-Republican Quincy to muck up the works.

District 18 (yellow) Schock-R

Figure if you can’t get rid of this glamour-boy, straight out of central casting, and you really cannot, you might as well give him then a GOP vote sink so you can elect Democrat congressmen to the north and south.  This district now contains no major cities at all.

Southern Illinois

District 15 (orange) Johnson-R probably a Democrat wins now or after Johnson retires

The other district that I would like to have tested with Kerry numbers.  Connects Dansville, Urbana-Champaign, Normal-Bloomington, Decatur, and Springfield together in a reasonably-looking district.  Adds historically Democratic Montgomery County to the mix.  I think this district probably voted for Kerry, but I don’t know and Obama by a bit more.  Kerry didn’t do well in Southern Illinois.

District 12 (light blue) Costello-D

Changes very little, goes north into Macoupin and surrounding Democratic-leaning counties to make up for population loss.  This is my local congressman and about the only way to draw Southern Illinois nowadays to guarantee a Democrat in congress from that region.

District 13 (pink) Shimkus-R

Again, largely the same.  Goes a bit northward into where the old 15th was to enable the reconfiguration of that district into a district that will probably elect a Democrat now.  Shimkus is a scumbag, but realistically you need a Republican vote sink down here.

So, there you have it.  Is this something reasonably safe enough for a Democratic gerrymander?  Or did I just draw a dummymander?  Let me know.

Had a whole write up posted but it got deleted. No comments this time but you guys know the deal by now. Its a 17-16-3 Democratic gerrymander.

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 1 (Blue) 54 Obama 66 Hispanic

El Paso and Odessa

Lean/Likely D

District 2 (Green) 57 O 72 H

El Paso and tentacles

Likely D

District 3 (Purple) 56 O 78 H

Mexican Border and some other counties

Likely D

District 4 (Red) 55 0 74 H

Mexican Border and it snakes up

Lean/Likely D

District 5 (Yellow) 55 0 72 H

Mexican Border and Corpus Christi

Likely D

District 6 (Teal) 34 O 59 White

Counties that border the Gulf of Mexico and going inward.

Safe R

San Antonio: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 7 (Gray) 55 O 58 H

Southern San Antonio and surrounding areas

Likely D

District 8 (Lilac Purple) 54 O 54 H

Middle of San Antonio and some other parts of Bexar county.

Lean/Likely D

District 9 (Sky Blue) 33 O 69 W

Northern San Antonio and its conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Safe R

Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 10 (Bright Pink) 55 O 57 W

Austin and its suburbs

Likely D

District 11 (Lime Green) 54 O 63 W

Austin

Lean/Likely D

District 12 (Periwinkle) 53 O 67 W

Austin and Killeen

Lean D

District 13 (Burt Sienna) 31 O 74 W

Waco, Temple and empty spaces

Safe R

District 14 (Gold) 25 O 66 W

A lot of space and part of lubbock

Safe R

District 15 (Orange) 25 O 66 W

More Nothing.

Safe R

Fort Worth: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 16 (Kelly Green) 52 O 51 W

Surprisingly Conservative Fort Worth

Toss-Up

District 17 (Navy Blue) 30 O 84 W

Suburbs of Fort Worth

Safe R

Dallas: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 18 (Golden Yellow) 59 O, 30 Black 19 Hispanic 5 Asian

Dallas

Safe D

District 19 (Puke Green) 54 O, 22 Black 27 Hispanic 2 Asian

Dallas and a few southward counties

Likely D

District 20 (Rose) 55 O, 39 Hispanic 14 Black 6 Asian

Dallas and Irving

Likely D

District 21 (Blood Red) 50 O, 54 W

Dallas  and surrounding areas

Toss-Up

District 22 (Poo Brown) 39 O 72 W

North of Dallas and FW

Safe R (Winnable with a great candidate in a good year or an incumbent in an ok one, but tilts very r)

District 23 (Robin’s Egg Blue) 35 O 75 W

North of FW to OK border

Safe R

District 24 (Dark Purple) 29 O 72 W

Wraps Around 19, 13 to the end of 11

Safe R

District 25 (Salmon)  35 O, 79 W

North Of Dallas

Safe R

District 26 (Dark Gray) 33 O, 77 W

Between OK Border and 24

Safe R

District 27 (Seafoam Green)31 O 72 W

Along the LA Border

Safe R

Houston: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

Note: I made a small error here in the large map. It is fixed in the numbers and in the close–up of houston (part of the district didn’t connect)

District 28 (Really Light Purple) 58 O  28 Black 13 Asian 26 Hispanic

Southwest Houston

Safe D

District 29 (Sage Green) 33 O 73 W

Northeast of Houston

Safe R

District 30 (Pinkish-Red near houston) 33 O 70 W

Wraps Around Houston

Safe R

District 31 (Pale Yellow) 39 O, 61 W

South of Houston

Safe R (See District 22)

District 32 (Bright Red) 37 O, 66 W

Wraps even closer around Houston then does 30

Safe R

District 33 (Denim Blue) 56 O, 24 B 7 A 28 H

Houston

Likely D

District 34 (Green in Houston) 51 O, 12 B 6 A 34 H

Houston

Toss-up

District 35 (Purple in Houston) 53 O, 16 B 3 A  43 H

North Houston

Lean D

District 36 (Orange in Houston) 62 O, 26 B 42 H

Southeast Houston riding up to Northwest Houston

Safe D

What I think makes this most effective is that the Democratic districts will only get more liberal over the Decade, cementing the safety of Incumbents and helping unseat any republicans who manage to pull an upset or win a toss-up.

Please reply, this took a while 🙂

And a big thank you for my girlfriend for help with the names of colors (You can tell which parts she left for, lol)

With Pennsylvania set to lose a congressional district in 2010, and with the GOP now in charge of the process (again), here’s what a 12-6 map might look like.  It’s quite ugly but ugliness is perhaps the only way the GOP can take a light blue state and cement a 12-6 hold on its congressional delegation!  (Bear in mind, Bush II never carried PA).  Even as is, I think a 12-6 map, eliminating just one Democratic congressman, is perhaps a dummymander.  Southeastern PA, especially, is trending away from them.  But I see no way the GOP is going to sacrifice one of their own to make a more sensible 11-7 map.

Ok, here goes… and I’ve renumbered the districts roughly west to east… can’t understand why PA, OH, FL, TX, and a few other states have district numbers that jump all over the place!

District 1 (blue): Altmire (D) OR Dahkemper (D): Erie, New Castle, Dem areas of SW PA

Obama 55, McCain 44

This is perhaps the ugliest district in the entire map, and its purpose is as a Democratic vote sink so that neighboring CD #2 becomes much safer for the GOP.  Still surprising that it isn’t all that Democratic-performing going by Obama’s vote percentage.

District 2 (green): Kelly (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Kelly gets a considerably safer district with the removal of Erie into CD #1.

District 3 (purple): Doyle (D)

Obama 68, McCain 31

Still a ridiculous vote sink around the Pittsburgh area.  District extends south a bit to gain some of the southern-most suburbs and thereby helps Murphy’s district become a bit redder.

District 4 (red): Murphy (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Republican suburbs in southern Allegany County, most Republican areas of Washington County, and almost all of now GOP-leaning Westmoreland County.  Murphy should be happy with this district.

District 5 (yellow): Thompson (R)



Obama 44, McCain 54

A more condensed version of the PA wilds district that you drive through on I-80.

District 6 (teal green): Shuster (R) vs. Critz (D)



Obama 41, McCain 58

If you were to get rid of a Democrat out of the 7, Critz is the safest one to get rid of.  The ruby-red mountains of PA drown out whatever Democratic votes Critz may be able to get out of Johnstown or Fayette/Somerset counties.  This should be safe for Shuster, unless he forgot how to campaign like Gekas in 2002.

District 7 (grey): Platts (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Stays largely the same.

District 8 (purple): Marino (R)

Obama 44, McCain 54

The GOP is faced with a real dilemma in NE PA in that they have 2 GOP freshmen incumbents to protect in an area that should by rights only elect one of them.  Because of this, they realistically cannot target Holden as they did in 2002.  Because of the need to give safer districts to Barletta (and, realistically, Dent – certainly if I were a GOP mapmaker I’d hedge my bets there), this district shifts south to grab all of Dauphin County.  The Democrats of Harrisburg are drowned out by the Republicans of Lycoming and other GOP counties between the two…. Best of all, while it is possible for a Democrat to win this district, Christopher Carney no longer lives in this district.

District 9 (sky blue): Barletta (R)

Obama 45, McCain 54

Through clever conceding of the most Democratic areas of his current district to Tim Holden’s neighboring 10th, this district becomes a carbon-clone of the 9.  Goes from the Republican T south to northern Berks County, but aside from swingy areas in Lackawanna and Luzerne County, this is a lean-GOP district, although it includes the home of Chris Carney, most of the district would be unfamiliar to him.

District 10 (pink): Holden (D)

Obama 61, McCain 37

This is Northeastern PA’s Democratic vote sink.  It accordingly helps out Baretta and Dent.  It helps out the latter by removing Bethlehem, the city of Dent’s 2010 challenger, and about 1/2 of Allentown, through a narrow ugly tendril southward from Carbon County.  Hoping that the part that Dent lives in is in neighboring CD 11; if not, it can easily be rectified by swapping precincts in Allentown.  From there it extends north to include all of the Democratic-rich areas of Scranton and its environs; ditto with Wilks-Barre and other Democratic areas of Luzerne.  It also includes the more Democratic eastern half or so of Schuylkill County, where Holden lives.

District 11 (neon green): Dent (R)

Obama 53, McCain 46

This district becomes a bit safer for Dent by extending north a bit along the Delaware River to Monroe, Pike, and Wayne counties.  It loses Bethlehem and part of Allentown through a narrow tendril in the 10th district.  Although Dent easily gets reelected in his district, his 2010 opponent, the mayor of Bethlehem, presented Dent with a tough race.  He now can run in a Democratic primary against Holden if he wishes.

District 12 (slate blue, I guess): Gerlach (R)

Obama 52, McCain 47

For slaving it out cycle after cycle, Gerlach gets a much safer more exurban district.  Lebanon, the rest of Berks not in CD 10, including all of Reading, which Gerlach can handle, a bit of northern Montgomery, and the northern half or so of Chester, where Gerlach is from.

District 13 (peach): Pitts (R)

Obama 47, McCain 52

Lancaster and the southern bit of Chester, where Pitts is from.  One is tempted to make this even more Democratic still to help out fellow SEPA Republicans elsewhere, but Pitts would be endangered if this district got any bluer than it is.  Indeed, if Lancaster follows Chester in becoming the next red-to-blue suburb of SE PA, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitts retired and was replaced either with a more moderate Republican or a Democrat.

District 14 (ugly green): Meehan (R)

Obama 53, McCain 46

mostly the same as before in Delaware County, with a few more heavily-Democratic areas such as Media, the areas around Swarthmore College, and heavily black areas in Upper Darby and Lansdowne removed into Brady’s 18th.  The district extends a bit further into carefully chosen precincts in Montgomery County, with Schwartz taking the most Democratic ones.  Meehan should be fine.

District 15 (orange): Fitzpatrick (R)

Obama 52, McCain 47

Bucks County finally gets partitioned, with Bristol, the home of Murphy, and the most Democratic areas nearest Philadelphia removed into Schwartz’s 16th and replaced with more GOP areas in Montgomery County.  The district gets 2-3% more Republican than currently is the case as a result.  About the best that can be done for Fitzpatrick.

District 16 (light green): Schwartz (D)

Obama 64, McCain 35

There we have it, an effective Democratic vote sink in SEPA that helps out all of the endangered GOP congressmen surrounding it.  It carefully takes in the most Democratic areas of Montgomery and Bucks and connects the two through also taking in a large part of NE Phily.  

District 17 (dark purple): Fattah (D)

Obama 88, McCain 12

55% black, 34% white, 5% Hispanic

Largely the same as before, gaining more areas in NE Phily to equalize its population.  Black % drops but still VRA-compliant by a long way.

District 18 (yellow): Brady (D)

Obama 87, McCain 13

44% black, 30% white, 18% Hispanic

Again, largely the same as before.  Extends a bit further into Delaware County to vacuum up heavily-Democratic precincts in favor of Meehan; likewise it takes a bit more of NE Phily than it did before.  Still, it retains its position as a minority-majority VRA-complaint coalition district.

The Census figures won’t be reported until December and not finalized until next spring, but the 2010 elections are now over and it seems redistricting is on everyone’s – and by everyone, I mean everyone in the rarefied world of political blogs and political science academia – minds. Republicans are crowing that their control of the redistricting trifectas in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin will bring them great gains and solidify their new House majority for years to come (funny, much the same was said in 2002, and House control has flipped twice since then, in dramatic numbers each time). So though it’s early, let’s look state-by-state at what is most likely to come of redistricting this decade.

I’m excluding some states – Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and West Virginia – whose redistricting process will likely prove uninteresting this round.

Arizona

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission

How many seats? 9 (up from 8 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 competitive seat

The Republicans have a 5-3 majority in Arizona’s delegation, but each party holds a couple generally competitive seats (the 1st and 5th for the Republicans, the 8th for the Democrats), and the commission needs not protect incumbents, so will probably seek to create as close to a tossup seat as possible in the fast-growing suburban areas of Maricopa County (Phoenix). As in 2002 when Rick Renzi’s win in the then-newly created 1st corresponded to slightly expanded Republican majorities nationwide, how the new Arizona seat goes may act as a bellwether of sorts.

California

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission

How many seats? 53

Likely shift? Totally up in the air

This state saw a genius Democratic gerrymander in 1982, a competitive court-drawn map in 1992, an incumbent protection gambit in 2002, and now nonpartisan redistricting has finally come to California. Republicans are convinced they can net a handful of seats out of a commission-drawn map, but remember we are talking about a presidential year in which Democratic turnout for Obama should be high and that some of the greatest beneficiaries of 2002’s map were suburban Republicans. Bottom line: no one knows what to expect.

Florida

Who’s in control? Republicans, within limits

How many seats? 27 (up from 25 in 2002)

Likely shift? We’ll see

A state constitutional amendment passed on November 2 that banned the legislature from drawing districts designed to favor or disfavor a given political party, so in essence the state is now subject to nonpartisan redistricting. However, the state government is still solidly in GOP control, so the legislature can easily pass a gerrymandered map and just wait for the Democrats to launch a time-consuming court challenge. Meanwhile, the amendment is itself being challenged in court right now by Reps. Corrine Brown and Mario Diaz-Balart, who claim that the new redistricting rules re: compactness jeopardize VRA-protected minority seats. If they win in court, the amendment is out and GOP gerrymandering is in. But should the legislature actually have to follow new rules, we could see quite a few Democratic pickups here, as the state is already ridiculously rigged in Republicans’ favor.

Georgia

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 14 (up from 13 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1-2 R

The only question is how aggressive Republicans want to be. If I were them, I’d craft a new GOP seat in Gwinnett County/eastern Atlanta and pack Sanford Bishop’s south Georgia seat with black population in Macon, then make John Barrow’s Augusta-to-Savannah marginal Dem district a bit more Republican. But if they overreach re: Barrow (or try to target Bishop instead) they could leave frosh GOPer Austin Scott underprotected.

Illinois

Who’s in control? Democrats

How many seats? 18 (down from 19 in 2002)

Likely shift? +2-3 D

The Democrats definitely plan to milk Illinois for all its worth, particularly given GOP gains this year that allow for some serious poaching and the lack of Democratic gerrymandering opportunities elsewhere. Expect a Republican – either Bobby Schilling downstate or Bob Dold/Joe Walsh in the Chicago area – to face elimination and another two (Randy Hultgren and Adam Kinzinger, e.g.) to see their districts cracked or reconfigured.

Indiana

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 9

Likely shift? +1 R

This is a simple enough task for the GOP: protect Larry Bucshon and Todd Young, defeat Joe Donnelly. For the latter purpose, moving Donnelly’s South Bend-area base into the already heavily Democratic 1st District would be all that is required.

Iowa

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission (with legislative approval)

How many seats? 4 (down from 5 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

The nonpartisan commission likely won’t force two Democrats (Braley and Loebsack) or two Republicans (Latham and King) together, so the only plausible outcome, I think, is a match between Latham and Boswell in central Iowa around Des Moines and Ames. This will be a tossup district with maybe a slight edge given to Latham.

Louisiana

Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov, Dem Legislature)

How many seats? 6 (down from 7 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 R

The only Democratic seat left is Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected 2nd District, which will likely regain lost population by adding a tentacle in Baton Rouge. A Republican – perhaps newcomer Jeff Landry – will have to be cut loose. If it’s Landry as some have suggested, he will be combined with Charles Boustany in a Cajun Country/Gulf-centered seat.

Massachusetts

Who’s in control? Democrats

How many seats? 9 (down from 10 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 D

This cancels out Louisiana from a partisan standpoint. RealClearPolitics recently pointed out that the Western Mass 1st District, held by 70-something Rep. John Olver, seems a likely target for elimination but that liberals would much rather devise a way to get rid of Stephen Lynch in South Boston. And then, of course, there’s freshman Bill Keating. The decision may rest more on personality than on politics, given the lack of partisan intrigue innate to a bunch of veteran Democrats picking which veteran Democrat to force out of Congress.

Michigan

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 14 (down from 15 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 D

Much speculation has centered on who the unlucky Democrat will be but I’m actually reasonably certain it will be two-termer Gary Peters in Oakland County. The Detroit area has lost population, but both VRA districts (Hansen Clarke’s 13th and John Conyers’ 14th) can and will be preserved, so the simplest solution is to combine Peters with longtimer Sander Levin in a heavily Democratic suburban seat. I doubt the Republicans will target Dingell or Kildee either, since that would spread GOP votes too thin in an already gerrymandered map.

Minnesota

Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov, GOP Legislature) assuming Dayton wins the gov. race

How many seats? 7 (down from 8 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

If Tom Emmer wins the gubernatorial recount, we are in for a whole new ballgame as Republicans finally combine Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district, but should Dayton prevail this may involve a competitive seat between Collin Peterson and Chip Cravaack up north or between Tim Walz and John Kline down south.

Missouri

Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov, GOP Legislature)

How many seats? 8 (down from 9 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

RealClearPolitics noted that the GOP’s legislative majorities are almost veto-proof and that, if black Democrats ally with Republicans, they could pass a GOP- and minority-friendly map over Gov. Nixon’s objections. But the most likely outcome here is a suburban St. Louis race between Todd Akin and Russ Carnahan that favors Akin (since Carnahan will need to cede some Democratic votes to Lacy Clay’s population-losing 1st District).

Nevada

Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov, Dem Legislature)

How many seats? 4 (up from 3 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 D

The legislature will probably pass a plan that protects newbie Republican Joe Heck but compensates with a new Dem-leaning seat in Reno or suburban Clark County.

New Jersey

Who’s in control? Bipartisan commission

How many seats? 12 (down from 13 in 2002)

Likely shift? Dem vs. GOP incumbent match

North Jersey’s population loss means Bill Pascrell could be combined with Rodney Frelinghuysen or Scott Garrett in a moderate suburban district. The commission is bipartisan, not nonpartisan, so swing votes can easily be swung and incumbent protection for the other 11 districts is almost assured.

New York

Who’s in control? Split (Dem Gov and House, GOP Senate)

How many seats? 27 (down from 29 in 2002)

Likely shift? 1 D and 1 R

I am assuming the Senate stays in Republican hands; this should involve the elimination of one upstate seat and one city-area seat. RCP predicts the unlucky upstater will be a Democrat and the unlucky downstater a Republican (Pete King or, if he wins, Randy Altschuler). But I always assumed it would be the opposite. In all predicted scenarios, incumbents of the same party will be combined with each  other. We shall see.

North Carolina

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 13

Likely shift? +2 R

Republicans will seek to aggressively undo the Democratic gerrymander of ’02 by dismantling Larry Kissell and either Heath Shuler or Mike McIntyre. They could conceivably target all three and spread Republican votes extremely thin. David Price, Brad Miller, Mel Watt, and G.K. Butterfield should be fine in any case.

Ohio

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 16 (down from 18 in 2002)

Likely shift? 1 D and 1 R

I am convinced the GOP will not seek to eliminate two Democrats. That would, quite simply, jeopardize their incredibly lopsided majority in the state delegation. I’ve long thought they’d combine Dennis Kucinich and Betty Sutton in a new Cleveland-to-Akron seat and two freshman Republicans elsewhere (best bet? Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs in the rural east, or Gibbs and Jim Renacci from Canton). Meanwhile, they’ll shore up regained GOP seats in Cincinnati and Columbus.

Pennsylvania

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 18 (down from 19 in 2002)

Likely shift? -1 D and possibly +1 R

As in Michigan and Ohio, we are already working with a GOP-gerrymandered map in the aftermath of a GOP-friendly election so the Republicans can’t afford to target the remaining Dem incumbents much. The most they can do is eliminate Mark Critz and make Jason Altmire’s seat more Republican.

South Carolina

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 7 (up from 6 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 R

John Spratt’s defeat makes this an easy call- pack the black population and Democrats in general into Jim Clyburn’s 6th to squeeze out one more Republican seat either up north or near Charleston.

Texas

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 36 (up from 32 in 2002)

Likely shift? +3 R and +1 D

This is a fascinating case. The Republicans have unlikely freshmen in Quico Canseco and Blake Farenthold; how to protect them without diluting the Hispanic populations in the 23rd and 27th and thereby violating the VRA? Meanwhile, RCP is convinced they can carve out four new GOP districts, but every way I’ve run the math the Democrats are due a new seat in Dallas-Fort Worth. The scenario I suggest may actually be the best possible outcome for the Republicans, since if they protect Canseco and Farenthold too much they may see their map tossed out in court. One more parting shot: pack every available Hispanic into the already heavily Latino 29th to see if they can finally knock Gene Green out in a Democratic primary.

Utah

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 4 (up from 3 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 R

The big question is whether the legislature will try once again to ruin Democratic survivor Jim Matheson, whose district is already heavily rural and ridiculously conservative, or just give him a moderate Salt Lake City-based district to ensure the election of three Republicans? It seems to me they can’t make his seat much more Republican without making the new 4th District a comparably liberal SLC seat.

Virginia

Who’s in control? Split (GOP Gov and House, Dem Senate)

How many seats? 11

Likely shift? None

At the moment everyone presumes we will see an incumbent protection map, but consider the following scenario: Republicans stall on redistricting until after the 2011 elections, hoping to flip control of the Senate and thereby run the whole process. They then draw a map the following year that cracks Gerry Connolly’s base and allows for a 9-2 GOP majority. Of course, that assumes the wind is still at Republicans’ backs next November, and a year is indeed an eternity in politics.

Washington

Who’s in control? Nonpartisan commission

How many seats? 10 (up from 9 in 2002)

Likely shift? +1 competitive

The commission is not obliged to protect incumbents, so anything can happen with the existing delegation or with the new 10th District. Both suburban Seattle and the inland have grown, and the two regions’ politics stand in stark contrast, so…we shall see.

Wisconsin

Who’s in control? Republicans

How many seats? 8

Likely shift? None or +1 R

The most they could do at this point is crack Ron Kind’s district, but that would represent a huge risk since Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble are new in town. Duffy, particularly, would benefit from Kind getting a more Democratic seat in western Wisconsin.

So, I said I’d actually play around with Dave’s Redistricting App.  Unfortunately, I don’t really know my geography that well, as to what parts of what district are D or R leaning, or have significant populations of what minority groups, or where college town communities are, etc..  But I needed a goal to work toward.

I started trying to see how I could redistrict Rhode Island as closely following county lines as possible.  But that was boring.  The insane maps–such as abgin’s New York Baconmandering–are more fun.  But I don’t know where anything is.  Wait…I’ll stroke my ego by writing out my username’s initials!

The other requirements for this map were to get as close to an even division of population as possible, and to retain five districts.

Map and other info below the fold.

Fitting the G in there was rather hard.  It still looks rather sloppy.  Well, granted, so does the M.  Next time, I should pick appropriate states for doing what I want to do with them…

I know a lot of cities were cracked.  This is mostly for population balancing and location (i.e. letter-drawing) reasons.

FWIW, the population figures for these districts are as follows, according to Dave’s App.  (They might not be totally correct: for example, a tiny district east of New Britain seems to contain no voters for some reason.)

Interestingly, I’ve ended up with three districts of about seventy-something percent white populations.  Dunno if CT has enough minorities to trigger VRA restrictions, but I didn’t take them into account here anyway.

Who goes where?  First thoughts suggest that all but the new 4th district might stay D, especially the second (central CT cities except Hartford and Middletown) and third (Hartford, Middletown, and Norwich).  However, after trying to think for a bit about which incumbent should go where,…I became very confused.  Maybe Himes could get the new CT-05, and give DeLauro the new CT-02, while Courtney and Larson can decide who gets CT-03 and CT-04.  Larson would likely take 03, but amusingly, I would suddenly become represented by Joe Courtney.  (Well, it was close anyway, I live next to Tolland County which is currently in Courtney’s district.)  I guess this leaves C. Murphy to take CT-01…?

(Yes, Salisbury and Sharon are covered by the table, but you can safely assume they’re in the new 4th district.)

And then I pressed “Use New Pop Est”.  And all the numbers changed and now I’m off by like 10,000 people in some districts.  And I can’t change them back.  And I don’t know how to load a map back into the App…  Are these the new population counts from the 2010 Census data?

For some reason, coming up with a title for this made me think of “My Little Pony”.  I’m not a fan of it, but I just realized that it might be amusing to produce a My Little Ponymander.

Unrelated note: If anyone was wondering what happened in the general election rematch for probate judge in my area between Brian Griffin and Marianne Lassman Fisher, here are the results: Griffin 13,458; Lassman Fisher 11,679.  Griffin again won Windsor by a big enough margin to overcome Lassman Fisher’s combined smaller margins in East Windsor and South Windsor.

Hi folks –

GERRYMANDERING is going to be in theaters nationwide this week.  The last time I wrote about it here, lots of folks wanted to know when it would hit certain areas, so here’s our opening salvo.

I’ll be doing Q&As in a bunch of places, so I hope folks come out and ask hard questions!  

10/12*: Camera 3 – San Jose, CA

10/12*+: Catamount Arts – St. Johnsbury, VT

10/12*+: Cinema Paradiso – Ft. Lauderdale, FL

10/12*: Lake Worth Playhouse – Lake Worth, FL

10/12*: Varsity Cinema – Davis, CA

10/12*+: 5 Points Theatre – Jacksonville, FL

10/12*: Mos’ Art – Lake Park, FL

10/12*+: Theatre N – Wilmington, DE

10/12*+: Palm Theater – Telluride CO

10/12*+: Riviera Theatre – Three Rivers, MI

10/12*: Beach Theater – St. Pete Beach, FL

10/13*: Pickford Film Center – Bellingham, WA

10/13*: Galaxy Cinema – Cary, NC

10/14-24+: Hawaii International Film Festival, Honolulu, HI

10/14-25+: Philadelphia Film Festival – Philadelphia, PA

10/15+: Village East – New York, NY

10/15+: Nuart – Los Angeles, CA

10/15: Lumiere – San Francisco, CA

10/15: Shattuck – Berkeley, CA

10/15: Ken – San Diego, CA

10/15-17+: Downbeach Film Festival – Atlantic City, NJ

10/19*: Crest Theater – Sacramento, CA

10/20-24: IndieMemphis Film Festival – Memphis, TN

10/22-24: Tallgrass Film Festival – Wichita, KS

10/22*: Byrd Theater – Richmond, VA

10/25*: Belcourt Theater – Nashville, TN

10/29+: West End Theatre – Washington, D.C.

11/1*: Salt Lake City Film Society – Salt Lake City, UT

11/1*: University of Maryland – College Park, MD

11/12*: Miami City Hall – Miami, FL

11/12: Valley Art – Phoenix, AZ

BOLD = Full Theatrical Engagements

*One-night only

+Q&As (Check local listings for details

We’ll be updating screenings here: http://www.gerrymanderingmovie…

Advance word has been terrific thus far:

“An exceptionally entertaining film.” – Bilge Ebiri, New York Magazine

“Every American voter should see this.” – Paul Constant, The Stranger

“****.  If you care about the future of America, see this movie.” – Matt Thomas, NY Examiner

“Cinematic – in the best way – all the way through.” – Howard Feinstein, Screen International

“A film seemingly made for Jon Stewart’s ‘Restoring Sanity’ movement.” – Stan Hall, The Oregonian