Tag: NY

Lee resigned pretty quickly today once it became apparent he could not lie about the hacking bit.

http://politicalwire.com/archi…

Our shot at this seat was botched when Kryzan somehow got the nomination.  What is our bench like in the area?  Would Powers be a good candidate?

Obviously Lee crushed in 2010, but perhaps we have a shot here ala Foley 2006?

Thoughts?

After only two years of a slim 32-30 Democratic majority in the New York State Senate, Republicans in this past election barely took back the chamber that they had previously held continuously for more than forty years. People around the country endlessly ask the question: how is it possible that Republicans have a majority of state senators in a state as “blue” as New York?

There is no simple answer to that question. Sufficed it to say, one of the most important factors is gerrymandering. Republicans did a masterful job of redistricting a very favorable map for themselves ten years ago. The current map is littered with Republican senators holding light blue Obama districts all over Long Island (9-0 Republican) and Upstate (21-4). With the great help of Daves Redistricting App 2.0, I set about in the task of redistricting New York's State Senate districts with three main goals in mind: 1.) connect Democratic towns and cities in Long Island, 2.) preserve majority-minority districts in New York City, and 3.) consolidate small cities Upstate. Much of the basis for my analysis comes from jeffmd's excellent post on the State Senate written in 2009 in which he looked at the numbers for the current districts. Inspecting the presidential toplines, it was determined that the cutoff between Republican and Democratic districts is about 58-60% Obama. My map uses that percentage as the benchmark. It would create 10 Democratic districts at over 58% in Upstate New York and another four at over 62% in Long Island. Combined with New York City, this would be more than enough to give Democrats a two-to-one majority in the State Senate. So without further ado, here is what I came up with:

 

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%		O%	M%
D	1	Hamptons	318633	66	11	3	17	2		62	38
R	2	Brookhaven	318569	89	2	2	6	1		49	51
R	3	Lindenhurst	318229	89	2	1	6	1		47	53
D	4	Huntington	318189	60	17	3	18	2		63	36
R	5	Smithtown	318668	91	1	3	4	1		46	54
R	6	Massapequa	318525	90	0	3	5	1		44	56
D	7	Great Neck	318243	67	12	8	11	2		64	35
D	8	Hempstead	318681	51	26	3	18	2		69	31
R	9	Garden City	318620	86	1	5	7	1		43	56
D	10	Jamaica	317030	9	55	9	15	12	Black Majority	92	8
D	11	Bayside	317619	60	5	18	13	3		62	37
D	12	Astoria	315924	42	5	13	34	5		78	21
D	13	East Elmhurst	318053	15	9	16	57	3	Hispanic Majority	81	18
D	14	St. Albans	318613	22	55	4	13	5	Black Majority	82	17
D	15	Forest Hills	316488	59	5	15	17	5		63	36
D	16	Flushing	317432	24	3	48	21	4	Asian Plurality	68	31
D	17	Bushwick	317715	13	13	7	60	6	Hispanic Majority	87	12
D	18	Bedford-Stuyvesant	317273	26	51	2	17	4	Black Majority	90	9
D	19	Canarsie	317538	28	52	3	14	3	Black Majority	83	17
D	20	Brooklyn Heights	318797	25	51	3	18	3	Black Majority	93	6
D	21	Prospect	318898	19	51	5	22	3	Black Majority	92	7
D	22	East Flatbush	317890	21	56	6	12	5	Black Majority	85	14
R	23	Homecrest	316816	81	1	11	6	2		33	67
D	24	Brighton Beach	317711	56	6	21	13	3		55	44
D	25	North Shore	318201	49	13	10	24	4		66	34
R	26	Arden Heights	323582	84	1	6	7	1		37	62
D	27	East Village	311559	45	6	27	19	3		84	15
D	28	Upper East Side	309905	83	3	8	5	2		75	24
D	29	Upper West Side	310495	73	5	8	11	2		85	14
D	30	Spanish Harlem	309111	22	23	3	50	2	Hispanic Majority	91	8
D	31	Bedford Park	308720	12	19	5	61	3	Hispanic Majority	90	9
D	32	Harlem	309836	2	61	1	33	2	Black Majority	97	2
D	33	Washington Heights	309056	22	12	4	60	2	Hispanic Majority	90	9
D	34	Soundview	309592	10	28	3	55	3	Hispanic Majority	90	10
D	35	Belmont	308704	21	21	3	53	2	Hispanic Majority	84	16
D	36	Mount Vernon	309493	14	60	2	20	4	Black Majority	92	8
D	37	Harrison	309361	73	7	5	13	2		61	38
D	38	Yonkers	309287	56	14	5	21	3		64	35
D	39	Ossining	309454	76	7	3	13	1		59	40
D	40	Clarkstown	317946	72	10	5	10	2		53	47
R	41	Carmel	321768	88	3	2	6	1		46	53
D	42	Poughkeepsie	317728	71	12	2	13	2		58	41
D	43	Kingston	320216	85	6	1	6	2		60	38
D	44	Troy	317388	86	6	3	3	2		58	40
D	45	Plattsburgh	317612	94	2	1	2	2		58	40
D	46	Albany	315314	84	9	2	3	1		63	35
R	47	Moreau	317511	96	1	1	1	1		49	49
R	48	Rome	317470	91	4	1	3	1		44	54
D	49	Syracuse	317634	80	12	2	3	3		62	36
R	50	Utica	317412	91	4	1	2	1		54	45
R	51	Herkimer	316544	96	1	0	2	1		45	53
R	52	Blooming Grove	319845	90	3	1	4	1		46	52
D	53	Ithaca	318178	87	4	3	3	2		61	38
R	54	Penn Yan	317011	95	2	0	2	2		47	51
R	55	Perinton	316789	92	3	3	2	1		51	47
D	56	Rochester	318289	60	26	3	9	2		72	27
R	57	Corning	317311	95	1	1	1	2		42	56
D	58	Amherst	317906	80	14	2	2	1		61	38
R	59	Hamburg	318084	94	1	1	2	2		49	49
D	60	Buffalo	317816	67	23	1	6	3		69	29
R	61	Batavia	318545	94	2	0	2	1		41	57
R	62	Greece	318537	93	3	1	2	1		46	52

Note, also, that I broke the state into four regions for simplicity: Upstate, Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan, Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island, and Long Island. Here is another table that breaks down the numbers by region:

Region	County	Population	Districts	(+/-)	316280	(+/-)
Long Island	Suffolk	1516544
	Nassau	1349555
		2866099	9	0	318323	0.6
New York City	Queens	2320449
	Brooklyn	2588844
	Staten Island	496246
		5405539	17	1	317972	0.5
	Manhattan	1646675
	Bronx	1415056
	Westchester	961565
		4023296	13	1	309484	-2.1
Ustate New York	Rockland	301308
	Other	7010169
		7311477	23	-2	317890	0.5

As you can see from the table, I redraw the map so that NYC gained two seats at the expense of Upstate New York, while Long Island remained the same at 9 districts. The population of each district in each region is very equal with the greatest deviation of -2.1% below the ideal population in the region of Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan. The rest of the seats compensate for this by being about .5% above the ideal. Before discussing the statewide changes that would occur under this redistricting plan, first let me go through the four regions themselves…

Long Island

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%	O%	M%
D	1	Hamptons	318633	66	11	3	17	2	62	38
R	2	Brookhaven	318569	89	2	2	6	1	49	51	Ken LaValle-1, Port Jefferson
R	3	Lindenhurst	318229	89	2	1	6	1	47	53	Lee Zeldin-3, Shirley	Owen Johnson-4, West Babylon
D	4	Huntington	318189	60	17	3	18	2	63	36
R	5	Smithtown	318668	91	1	3	4	1	46	54	John Flanagan-2, East Northport	Carl Marcellino-5, Syosset
R	6	Massapequa	318525	90	0	3	5	1	44	56
D	7	Great Neck	318243	67	12	8	11	2	64	35
D	8	Hempstead	318681	51	26	3	18	2	69	31	Charles Fuschillo-8, Merrick	Dean Skelos-9, Rockville Centre
R	9	Garden City	318620	86	1	5	7	1	43	56	Kemp Hannon-6, Garden City	Jack Martins-7, Mineola

(The table above is a portion derived from the table in the intoduction. However, included in this table and the three that are to follow it, the number for each district has a link to a picture of that district's new boundaries. Also, I included the incumbent senators in whichever district that they would live in if my map went into affect. Each senator's party is denoted by the font color, and the data entries include the number district that each senator currently represents in the State Senate, as well as where they live and a link to their official biographies.)

Long Island has been the province of Republicans in the New York State Senate for many decades. At the height of the Democratic wave in 2008, Long Island elected only two Democratic senators out of nine total. Both of them lost their seats in this last election, returning Long Island to its usual position of having only Republicans represent them in the State Senate. It's not as though Long Island is that conservative overall — indeed, all but one of the current nine senate districts in Nassau and Suffolk Counties was won by Obama. Republicans have been very effective in diluting Democratic votes, thereby allowing many independents who fear a complete Democratically-controlled Albany to elect Republican candidates for the State Senate.

Of the eight Obama-voting Long Island Senate districts, none of them were won by more than about 55%, which is a very managable percentage for incumbent GOP senators, including the new Majority Leader Dean Skelos, who hails from Rockville Centre in Nassau County. In this region, the goal was to be realistic about what could be achieved and very cautious in achieving it. I drew up four Democratic districts each at over 62% for Obama.

Three out of the four new Democratic districts that I created are left open for any Dem who wants them. The most Democratic district in the region — SD-8, based in Hempstead and Long Beach — is occupied by Skelos and Senator Charles Fuschillo. As the Black and Hispanic populations are spread throughout Long Island, each district retains their white majority.

 

Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%		O%	M%
D	10	Jamaica	317030	9	55	9	15	12	Black Majority	92	8	Shirley Huntley-10, Jamaica
D	11	Bayside	317619	60	5	18	13	3		62	37	Tony Avella-11, Whitestone
D	12	Astoria	315924	42	5	13	34	5		78	21	Michael Gianaris-12, Astoria
D	13	East Elmhurst	318053	15	9	16	57	3	Hispanic Majority	81	18	Jose Peralta-13, East Elmhurst
D	14	St. Albans	318613	22	55	4	13	5	Black Majority	82	17	Malcolm Smith-14, St. Albans
D	15	Forest Hills	316488	59	5	15	17	5		63	36
D	16	Flushing	317432	24	3	48	21	4	Asian Plurality	68	31	Toby Ann Stavisky-16, Flushing
D	17	Bushwick	317715	13	13	7	60	6	Hispanic Majority	87	12	Joseph Addabbo-15, Ozone Park	Martin Malave Dilan-17, Bushwick
D	18	Bedford-Stuyvesant	317273	26	51	2	17	4	Black Majority	90	9
D	19	Canarsie	317538	28	52	3	14	3	Black Majority	83	17	John Sampson-19, Canarsie
D	20	Brooklyn Heights	318797	25	51	3	18	3	Black Majority	93	6	Valmanette Montgomery-18, Boerum Hills	Eric Adams-20, Crown Heights	Daniel Squadron-25, Brooklyn Heights
D	21	Prospect	318898	19	51	5	22	3	Black Majority	92	7	Kevin Parker-21, Flatbush
D	22	East Flatbush	317890	21	56	6	12	5	Black Majority	85	14
R	23	Homecrest	316816	81	1	11	6	2		33	67	Martin Golden-22, Bay Ridge
D	24	Brighton Beach	317711	56	6	21	13	3		55	44	Carl Kruger-27, Sheepshead Bay
D	25	North Shore	318201	49	13	10	24	4		66	34	Diane Savino-23, Staten Island
R	26	Arden Heights	323582	84	1	6	7	1		37	62	Andrew Lanza-24, Great Kills

While much of Staten Island remains a stubborn Republican bulwark, Queens and Brooklyn voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama in 2008. They are home to most of New York City's black population, as well as significant Hispanic and Asian communities. Since this area of the state is so heavily Democratic, the overriding goal for this region was not to squeeze out more Democratic seats, but to strengthen a few shaky ones and create new Voting Rights Act (VRA) districts wherever possible. Under my plan, this region would gain one additional seat as a result of new population estimates given by the Census Bureau. 

This map preserves the two African-American majority districts in Queens and adds a fifth black majority district to the four that already exist in Brooklyn. One of the best things about this map is that it creates an Asian plurality district that is based in Flushing and spread throughout many parts of Queens. The 16th district is currently represented by Sen. Toby Ann Stavisky, but if the Asian community were able to unite around a consensus candidate, she could well be displaced in a primary. I found it impossible to make the 16th District any more heavily Asian than 48%, but the next largest racial community was 24% of the population, so if Stavisky were to retire, this would most likely go to an Asian candidate. It also preserves the two Hispanic majority districts in Queens and Brooklyn.

The recently-flipped 11th and 15th Districts would be strengthened for the Democrats. Carl Kruger's 27th district in southern Brooklyn would be radically changed into the 24th district, both strengthening our vote there and also allowing for a primary challenge to the less-than-venerable “Amigo.” At 55% for Obama, the 24th is one of two districts that I created below the magic 58% line that I still counted in the Democratic column — largely because presidential voting patterns in southern Brooklyn are volatile and not necessarily indicative of a broader ideological differentiation. What Republican-leaning communities that do exist here would be consolidated into two large McCain majority districts: the 23rd in southern Brooklyn and the 26th in southern Staten Island, both of which are currently represented by Republican Senators anyway.

 

Manhattan, Bronx, and Westchester County

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%		O%	M%
D	27	East Village	311559	45	6	27	19	3		84	15
D	28	Upper East Side	309905	83	3	8	5	2		75	24	Liz Krueger-26, Upper East Side
D	29	Upper West Side	310495	73	5	8	11	2		85	14	Thomas Duane-29, Upper West Side
D	30	Spanish Harlem	309111	22	23	3	50	2	Hispanic Majority	91	8	Jose Serrano-28, Spanish Harlem
D	31	Bedford Park	308720	12	19	5	61	3	Hispanic Majority	90	9	Gustavo Rivera-33, Kingsbridge Heights
D	32	Harlem	309836	2	61	1	33	2	Black Majority	97	2	Bill Perkins-30, Harlem
D	33	Washington Heights	309056	22	12	4	60	2	Hispanic Majority	90	9	Adriano Espaillat-31, Washington Heights
D	34	Soundview	309592	10	28	3	55	3	Hispanic Majority	90	10	Ruben Diaz-32, Soundview	Jeffrey Klein-34, Throgs Neck
D	35	Belmont	308704	21	21	3	53	2	Hispanic Majority	84	16
D	36	Mount Vernon	309493	14	60	2	20	4	Black Majority	92	8	Ruth Hassel-Thompson-36, Williamsbridge
D	37	Scarsdale	309361	73	7	5	13	2		61	38	Suzi Oppenheimer-37, Mamaroneck
D	38	Yonkers	309287	56	14	5	21	3		64	35	Andrea Stewart-Cousins-35, Yonkers
D	39	Ossining	309454	76	7	3	13	1		59	40

This region, encompassing Manhattan, Bronx, and Westchester County, is the most strongly Democratic area in one of the most Democratic-leaning states in the Union. It is home to the largest Hispanic communities in the Northeast United States — mostly Peurto Rican, but also Dominican, Mexican, and other Latin American heritages. The white communities here also tend to be much more liberal than their counterparts in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island. That is especially the case in Manhattan and Westchester, which are home to many educated urban white professionals.

All twelve districts here are represented by Democrats in the State Senate. That would stay the same under my plan, except for the addition of a thirteenth Democratic district. This is the second distric that comes at the expense of Upstate New York — the other one being in Brooklyn.

Both majority African-American districts would remain intact. The map also adds another Hispanic-majority district to the four that currently exist.

Upstate New York

	District	Pop. Center	Pop.	Wh%	Bl%	Asn%	Hisp%	Oth%	O%	M%
D	40	Clarkstown	317946	72	10	5	10	2	53	47	David Carlucci-38, Clarkstown
R	41	Carmel	321768	88	3	2	6	1	46	53	Greg Ball-40, Patterson
D	42	Poughkeepsie	317728	71	12	2	13	2	58	41	Bill Larkin-39, New Windsor	Stephen Saland-41, Poughkeepsie
D	43	Kingston	320216	85	6	1	6	2	60	38
D	44	Troy	317388	86	6	3	3	2	58	40	Hugh Farley-44, Schenectady
D	45	Plattsburgh	317612	94	2	1	2	2	58	40	Betty Little-45, Queensbury	Patty Ritchie-48, Heuvelton
D	46	Albany	315314	84	9	2	3	1	63	35	Neil Breslin-46, Albany	James Seward-51, Milford
R	47	Moreau	317511	96	1	1	1	1	49	49	Roy McDonald-43, Stillwater
R	48	Rome	317470	91	4	1	3	1	44	54	Joseph Griffo-47, Rome
D	49	Syracuse	317634	80	12	2	3	3	62	36	David Valesky-49, Oneida	John DeFrancisco-50, Syracuse
R	50	Utica	317412	91	4	1	2	1	54	45
R	51	Herkimer	316544	96	1	0	2	1	45	53
R	52	Blooming Grove	319845	90	3	1	4	1	46	52	John Bonacic-42, Mount Hope
D	53	Ithaca	318178	87	4	3	3	2	61	38	Thomas Libous-52, Binghamton	Michael Nozzollio-54, Fayette
R	54	Sodus	317011	95	2	0	2	2	47	51
R	55	Perinton	316789	92	3	3	2	1	51	47	James Alesi-55, East Rochester
D	56	Rochester	318289	60	26	3	9	2	72	27
R	57	Corning	317311	95	1	1	1	2	42	56	Thomas O'Mara-53, Big Flats	Catharine Young-57, Olean
D	58	Amherst	317906	80	14	2	2	1	61	38	Tim Kennedy-58, Buffalo
R	59	Hamburg	318084	94	1	1	2	2	49	49	Pat Gallivan-59, Elma	Mike Ranzenhofer-61, Clarence
D	60	Buffalo	317816	67	23	1	6	3	69	29	Mark Grisanti-60, Buffalo
R	61	Batavia	318545	94	2	0	2	1	41	57
R	62	Greece	318537	93	3	1	2	1	46	52	Joe Robach-56, Greece	George Maziarz-62, Newfane

Here more than anywhere else in the state, Republicans dominate in local and state politics. Recently, Democrats lost five of their ten Upstate congressional districts. This is also where Republicans picked up two Senate seats and gained about a half-dozen Assembly seats last fall. Nevertheless, there are still many strongly Democratic areas of Upstate New York: mostly medium- and small-sized cities and liberal inner-suburbs that dot the landscape from the Hudson Valley to the Great Lakes. The goal was to consolidate those areas and churn out as many new Democratic districts as possible. Here again, as in Long Island, the minority ethnic populations are too spread out to create any VRA districts. Instead, this is where the great bulk of Republican Senate seats would hit the buzz-saw.

The region as a whole would lose two seats, mostly from the equalization of populations in each Senate district — which Republicans largely disregarded during the last redistricting ten years ago — as well as the much greater population growth downstate.

I was able to get about half of these 23 districts in the Democratic column. The 40th District, based in Rockland County, is the second of only two districts in this entire map (the other being in southern Brooklyn) that I counted as a Democratic district even though Obama's vote there was less than 58%. The reason is that this seat was one of very few elected offices around the country that Democrats actually gained from the Republicans in this last election. The seat would also bolster its Democratic vote through redistricting, so I figured, if David Carlucci could pick it up for the Dems in a year like 2010, odds are pretty good that he'll be able to hold it in a lot of other political environments.

I was able to get ten of these districts at over 58% for Obama. One of the most certain Democratic gains under this plan would be my native 56th Senate District, based in the City of Rochester and the Town of Brighton. Republican Senator Joe Robach has vexingly been able to hold onto this district for years despite the fact that it voted by a two-to-one margin for Barack Obama in 2008 (66%-33%). Under this plan, Robach's hometown of Greece would be removed from the 56th and replaced by the Democratic-leaning suburbs of Gates and Irondequoit.

The four seats that we do hold here would be strengthened. The 60th District, which is even more Democratic district than the 56th, voted out a Democratic incumbent last fall. This district would remain largely unchanged in the hope that a different Dem might likely be able to win it back from freshman Republican Senator Mark Grisanti.

As is convention when State Senate seats are redistricted in Upstate New York, I left every town intact. In addition, only two cities are divided between different districts: Buffalo and Tonawanda (just south of Niagra Falls). The self-imposed requirement that towns be left undivided was a major constraint, but it would probably help a plan like this to survive a court challenge.

 

Summary:

A major drawback of this map is that without realizing it, I redraw the lines with no attention paid to which district each senator lives in. Hence, a lot of Democratic primaries and games of musical chairs would happen in this plan that might otherwise have been avoided. But, by the time I realized it, it was too late. In any event, many more Republicans get stuck together than Democrats, so that serves to counter-balance this problem.

This map pays tribute to the Voting Rights Act by creating three new majority-minority district: a new Black-majority district in Brooklyn, an Asian-plurality district in Queens, and a fifth Hispanic-majority district in the Bronx.

My plan also evens out the population disparities between regions by making every seat within only a few thousands residents off from the ideal population of 316,280 people per district. In applying a fairer division among the state's population and using new population estimates given by the Census, Upstate New York lost two districts to New York City.

I am confident that if this plan went into affect at the next election, Democrats would hold a large 43-19 majority in the New York State Senate for many years to come. But alas, Republicans won back this chamber last year and thus, it is not to be. However, I'm still convinced that with new population estimates, it will be extremely difficult for Republicans to redistrict another map that would allow them to retain the majority. Their luck has simply run out. They may be able to preserve many incumbents in Upstate and Long Island, but remember that Democrats only need to gain one seat for them to retake the majority (a 31-31 tie would allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Bob Duffy to act as the tie-breaker). And as I've shown through this analysis, downstate will have to gain two seats for the next redistricting plan to be in compliance with the Census.

It took many practice tries, but I believe this map provides the strongest possible plan for a large Democratic majority in the Senate that not only respects existing VRA districts, but also creates three new ones. In short, this is the ideal Democratic redistricting plan for the New York State Senate.

New York State now has partisan data in Daves Redistricting! Thanks to jeffmd for the ton of work he did to make this happen. Please read below the fold before trying this!

Jeffmd created all new shapefiles for New York voting districts. The population numbers are 2010 estimates (gleaned by Jeff from available data), so there’s no need to check “Use new population estimates.” And the partisan data (2008 presidential election) was put together by Jeff to match those districts.

To access this new data, you need to check the “Use Test Data” checkbox in the upper right corner of the app before selecting New York State. (Because the data format is different than I have been using, I’ve separated it into a separate directory on the server.)

Warning: the shapefiles file is very large (17MB). (Texas has the next largest at 7MB.) So it will take minutes to load — go get coffee.

As most of you know, NY will almost definitely lose 1 CD after 2010. I started trying to build a new plan (as I tested out the new data and software changes). Quite a challenge. You already have various minority majority districts in the NYC area (Black majority as well as Hispanic majority). Keeping those balanced correctly while shifting to accomodate 1 fewer district will be a challenge. (And interesting to see neighborhoods in Brooklyn where McCain kicked butt — those of you from the city understand this much better than an outsider like me.) Now, the Hispanic demographic is not broken down further, which could hinder your job. The Census Bureau does have this data and I may be able to make that change in the future, but for now, this is what we have.

Enjoy redistricting NY. Don’t stay up too late and jeopordize your job or marriage!

Update: I uploaded a new version of the app and I think you are going to like this!

(1) Fixed percentages so that they are calculated by rounding. This was simply my coding error.

(2) Made the sizes of the CD labels smaller for the smaller districts. Especially good for NYC.

(3) Made it so you can drag the new CD labels where you want them! Woohoo!

Here in New York City, we’re being deluged with direct mail, not only for Mayor (why doesn’t Bloomberg just save his money, since we all know him, and he’s gonna win, anyway?) but for lower offices, such as Comptroller and DA. This diary will be about the candidates for DA.

There are three candidates in the Democratic primary for New York County DA: Cy Vance, Richard Aborn, and Leslie Crocker Snyder. Amazingly, no-one is running on the Republican line.

Cy Vance, the son of the former Secretary of State under Carter, is endorsed by the New York Times, apparently the Daily News (“Vance stands well above his rivals”), and an array of New York City politicos and activists, including Caroline Kennedy, former Mayor David Dinkins, Gloria Steinem, and Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez, but probably most importantly, the legendary outgoing DA, Robert Morgenthau, who calls him the “best qualified” for the job.

Richard Aborn, endorsed by Bill Bratton – the former brilliant NYPD Commissioner, hired early in Giuliani’s administration and eventually forced out because his extremely successful crime-fighting ways made him too popular for Giuliani’s liking – and my congressman, Jerry Nadler, among others, is making reforming the Rockefeller Drug Laws (here’s a critical look at them) his main campaign plank. In his direct mail, he calls for:

treat[ing] substance abuse as a public health problem, not just a criminal one[, providing] drug treatment for non-violent offenders who have a substance abuse problem[, and…]providing retroactive sentencing relief to non-violent offenders still incarcerated under obsolete laws[.]

He doesn’t make clear in the mailing or in the relevant section of his website how he would be able to reform laws as New York County DA, but it seems clear that he would use his “judicial discretion to divert non-violent, low-level drug offenders into treatment programs rather than sentencing them to state prison.”

Finally, there is Leslie Crocker Snyder, a former Judge of the New York City Criminal Court (appointed by Mayor Ed Koch and reappointed by David Dinkins) and New York Court of Claims (appointed by Republican Governor George Pataki) and longtime attorney.

Based on her direct mail, her campaign seems to be an attempt at frightening people into voting for her. In 2005, she tried to beat DA Morgenthau by arguing that he was too old and she should replace him almost just because she is younger. It seemed that everyone who knew and worked with him said that he was extremely sharp mentally and worked long hours tirelessly, so Snyder’s strategy backfired, and she was heavily defeated. Now that the position is open, she appears to consider Cy Vance her main opponent, and seems to be once again trying to get in through sleazy methods. She is sending a 4-page direct mail brochure. On the first page, there is an ugly, mirror-image photograph of what is supposed to look like New York in the bad old days. The text on top of the page says as follows (in all caps):

WHEN TIMES WERE TOUGH IN MANHATTAN WHAT DID THE CANDIDATES FOR DISTRICT ATTORNEY DO?

On the second page:

JUDGE LESLIE CROCKER SNYDER STAYED AND FOUGHT TO PROTECT NEW YORKERS

On the third page:

CY VANCE JR. MOVED TO SEATTLE TO MAKE MILLIONS DEFENDING MURDERERS, MOBSTERS AND WHITE-COLLAR CRIMINALS.

The brochure details two of the criminals he defended, as if their crimes reflect badly on him as a defense lawyer. This is demagogic in the extreme. As Vance said to Snyder in an excerpt from a debate that took place on New York 1 TV (I didn’t hear the whole debate):

I believe that everybody in this country deserves the right to a fair trial, particularly those who are presupposed guilty like the individual in the Sudafed case. I took on that case in a court-appointed capacity. I believe that is the job of a defense lawyer to protect people and to make sure the government proves its case. Now if you believe otherwise, you shouldn’t be running for this job.

My inclination is to vote for Aborn, based on his strong position on the drug laws, which have caused almost incalculable waste in money and human lives, but if I find out that this is really a two-person race between the other candidates, I will vote for Vance without hesitation in order to keep Crocker Snyder out.

I’d welcome your opinions about this race, and any polling data you may have come across.

Previous diaries

Summary:

 NY has 29 congresspeople: 26 D and 3 R; possibly vul:

 NY-03 (R) (if King runs for Senate)

 NY-13 (D)

 NY-20 (D)

 NY-23 (R)

 NY-24 (D)

 NY-29 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

One note on geography – in NYC, a lot of districts are bizarrely shaped, but this doesn’t relate to Dem. vs. Repub., as all of the districts are Democratic, and all but one solidly so.  You have to look at the maps to appreciate them.

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island map

Cook PVI 0

Representative Timothy Bishop (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2001

2008 margin 58-42 over Lee Zeldin

2006 margin  62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Lee Zeldin, possibly a Republican primary first vs. Randy Altschuler

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K)

Assessment Bishop beat Zeldin easily, looks safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Steve Israel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 117.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin  66-34 over Frank Stalzer

2006 margin  70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location Mostly south shore of central Long Island map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Peter King (R) May run for Senate

VoteView 271

First elected 1992

2008 margin  64-36 over Graham Long

2006 margin  56-44

2004 margin  63-37

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Current opponents A lot of Democrats are ‘considering’ running; if King goes for the Senate seat, a lot of Republicans will doubtless run as well.

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment It depends on what King does, if he runs, it’s likely to stay Republican; if he goes for the Senate, then it’s a possible pickup, but still, the district went for McCain.

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 1996

2008 margin  64-36 over Jack Martins

2006 margin  65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Nonconfirmed

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens  map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1983

2008 margin 70-28 over Elizabeth Berney

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern Queens, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 36

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

VoteView 69.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin  Unopposed

Obama margin 89-11

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Queens and Bronx, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative Joseph Crowley (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1998

2008 margin  85-15 over William Britt

2006 margin  84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Obama margin 79-20

Bush margin 2004 74-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, southern Brooklyn, and a skinny line connecting them map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 50

First elected 1992

2008 margin  80-20 over Grace Lin

2006 margin  85-14

2004 margin  81-19

Obama margin 74-25

Bush margin 2004 72-27

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian); I don’t have the figure, but it also has one of the highest concentrations of Jews.

Assessment Safe

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC  map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin  92-8 over conservative party candidate

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents  None confirmed

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location  A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC  map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Edolphus Towns (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 28.5

First elected 1982

2008 margin  94-6 over Salvatore Grupico

2006 margin  92-6

2004 margin 91-7

Obama margin 91-9

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Current opponents Kevin Powell

Demographics  27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-11

Location   Central Brooklyn, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Yvette Clarke (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 22

First elected 2006

2008 margin  93-7 over Hugh Carr

2006 margin  90-8

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 90-9

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 5th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location  Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn  map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 20.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin  89-11 over Alan Romaguera

2006 margin  90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Obama margin 86-13

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian).

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC  map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Michael McMahon (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  61-33 over Robert Staniere

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This used to be a Republican district, until Fosella got caught driving drunk and committing bigamy.  I am not sure how vul. McMahon is.  Staniere was not a real test.  McMahon has raised almost $600K, and has over $450K COH.

District: NY-14

Location  East side of Manhattan, and western Queens  map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative Carolyn Maloney (D) may run for Senate

VoteView 122.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin  79-19 over Robert Heim

2006 margin  84-16

2004 margin  81-19

Obama margin 78-21

Bush margin 2004 74-25

Current opponents None confirmed.  If Maloney goes for Senate, all bets are off.

Demographics  15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe for Maloney who whatever Democrat runs, if she leaves.

District: NY-15

Location  Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens map

Cook PVI D + 41

Representative Charlie Rangel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 109

First elected 1970

2008 margin  87-9 over Ed Daniels

2006 margin  94-6

2004 margin  91-7

Obama margin 93-6

Bush margin 2004 90-9

Current opponents

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), 2nd most Democratic

Assessment Rangel is corrupt, and too conservative for this district, but a primary is probably hopeless.  Rangel was born in 1930 … will he ever retire?  In any case, a safe D seat.

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 41

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

VoteView 8.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin  97-3 over Ali Mohamed

2006 margin  95-5

2004 margin  95-5

Obama margin 95-5

Bush margin 2004 89-10

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics The most Democratic district in the USA; 3% may be the lowest percentage gotten by a major party candidate

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location  Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson  map

Cook PVI D + 18

Representative Elliot Engel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin  79-21 over Robert Goodman

2006 margin  76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Obama margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)  map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

VoteView 28.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin  68-32 over Jim Russell

2006 margin  71-29

2004 margin  70-30

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics

Assessment Safe

District: NY-19

Location  Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT  map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative John Hall (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2006

2008 margin  58-42 over Kieran Lalor

2006 margin  51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents John MacEnroe (no not John McEnroe) and Greg Ball are in a Republican primary

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment With two wins under his belt, Hall looks more or less safe

District: NY-20

Location  Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany  map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Scott Murphy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2009

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment After an extremely close race, this has to be counted as vulnerable.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there  map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Paul Tonko (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2008

2008 margin  62-35 over James Buhrmaster

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NY-22

Location  If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1992

2008 margin  66-34 over George Phillips

2006 margin  63-37

2004 margin  71-29

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents George Phillips

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT  map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John McHugh (R) Retiring to be Secretary of the Army

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents Since Obama chose McHugh, there is a lot of interest in this race.  Confirmed Democrats include Mike Oot, who ran and lost badly to McHugh in 2008 (I cannot find a website for the 2010 run) and Danny Francis (I couldn’t find a site for him, either).  

Demographics 8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Vulnerable.  We have to see who the candidates are.

District: NY-24

Location  Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario  map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

VoteView 160.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin  51-49 over Richard Hanna

2006 margin  54-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-48

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable, although Arcuri has already raised over $400K.  

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Dan Maffei (D)

VoteView 263

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-42 over Dale Sweetland

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Current opponents Paul Bertan

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Maffei won his 2008 race pretty easily (after losing a close one in 2006), and Obama also won pretty easily; not completely safe, but not bad. Maffei has raised almost $900K.

District: NY-26

Location  Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Chris Lee (R)

VoteView 309

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-40 over Alice Kryzan

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 46-52

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo  map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

VoteView 115.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin  74-23 over Daniel Humiston

2006 margin  79-21

2004 margin  51-49

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Looks pretty safe

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip  map

Cook PVI D + 15

Representative Louise Slaughter (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 50.5

First elected 1986

2008 margin  78-22 over David Crimmen

2006 margin  73-27

2004 margin  73-25

Obama margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Eric Massa (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Randy Kuhl  

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents Tom Reed; a Republican primary seems likely

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Massa barely ousted Kuhl, so it’s not completely safe. Massa has raised over $500K

Today was the filing deadline in WI as well as the second day of New York’s four day filing period.  Wisconsin information is partial as some candidates have filed the paperwork but the state has not validated their signatures.

The big news is that each side in Wisconsin will field at least one candidate with no major party opposition.  For Republicans, James Sensenbrenner will face a primary challenger (Jim Burkee) and an Independent on the fall ballot (Robert Raymond) but no Democrat.  Gwen Moore (D, WI-4) will also face an Independent in the fall (Michael LaForest) but no Republican.  

Four Democrats appear to have qualified to oppose Paul Ryan in WI-1 (Paulette Garin, Mike Hebert, Marge Krupp, John Mogk).  They will meet in a September 9 primary.  Roger Kittelson has the signatures to oppose Tom Petri in WI-6 (unopposed in 2006).  He may (or may not) face Mark Wollom in a primary depending on the validation of signatures.

Signatures must also be validated for three Republicans seeking to make the ballot in Wisconsin.  Surprisingly, one of them is John Gard.  This may show a bit of weakness in his candidacy in WI-8.  The others are Peter Theron in WI-2 (vs. Tammy Baldwin) and Paul Stark in WI-3 (vs. Ron Kind).  Could there be another free ride?

In NY, two of the three Republican House incumbents who have actually expressed interest in retaining their seats have filed: Peter King and John McHugh.  It will be interesting to see if a candidate emerges in NY-13 and what the deal is in NY-25 and how many free rides come out of Democratic districts in the City.

The number of Republican House members who have not yet filed or announced their retirement is down to four in the entire country:  Steve Scalise (LA-1), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Mike Castle (DE-At Large), and Randy Kuhl (NY-29).  At this point, I expect all to run.  

On the Democratic side, the biggest question mark as we wrap up filing remains whether we will find an opponent in NY-3 for Peter King.  This is an eminently winnable seat.  I think there may be a cattle call when King retires.  Only when will that be?

An interesting side note is the number of high profile primary challenges to Democratic state senators and assembly members.  Reading the Albany Project blog or the Albany Times-Union (local politics don’t seem as big in the NY City dailies), you’d think the state senate had already changed hands.  

continuing through the alphabet

NY has 29 representatives: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans (5 of whom are on the DCCC list

Filing deadline is July 17, primary is Sept 9

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island

Representative Tim Bishop (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, William Manger raised $1.3 million to Bishop’s $1.9 million; in 2006, Italo Zinzi raised $300K to Bishop’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Lee Zeldin

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K),

Assessment Safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island

Representative  Steve Israel (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location More of central Long Island, especially the south shore

Representative Peter King (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents In 2004, Blair Mathies raised $200K to King’s $500K; in 2006, David Meijas raised $900K to King’s $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment On the DCCC list , but we need a candidate!

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island (i.e. close to NYC)

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, James Garner raised $300K to McCarthy’s $1.7 million.  In 2006, Martin Blessinger raised $100K to McCarthy’s $1.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

First elected  1983

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern part of Queens, NYC

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

First elected 1998  

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Some of Queens, some of Bronx, NYC

Representative Joseph Crowley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian), 27th most Democratic (tie with NY08)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, part of lower Manhattan, southern Brooklyn

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 85-14

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents In 2004, Peter Hort raised $140K to Nadler’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian)

Assessment Safe.  

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Edolphus Towns (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 92-6  (! and his opponent was a Republican!)

2004 margin 91-7 (!)

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared, although there is a primary challenger

Demographics 27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment You’re kidding, right? He might lose a primary, though

District: NY-11

Location Central Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Yvette Clarke (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 90-8

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn (this one won a ‘contest’ for most convoluted map of a district)

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Vito Fosella (R)

First elected  1997

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2004, Frank Barbaro raised $400K to Fosella’s $1.1 million; in 2006, Stephen Harrison raised $100K to Fosella’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Harrison , who ran in 2006; Domenic Recchia.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the 34th most vulnerable Republican seat.  We can win this one!

District: NY-14

Location East side of Manhattan, and western Queens

Representative  Carolyn  Maloney (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 24-74

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-15

Location Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens

Representative Charles Rangel (D)

First elected 1970

2006 margin 94-6 (! against a Republican)

2004 margin 91-7

Bush margin 2004 9-90

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 95-5 (!)

2004 margin 95-5 (!)

Bush margin 2004 10-89

Notes on opponents The same guy ran twice, with no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Lowest income in the USA (median = $19K), most in poverty (42.2%), 2nd fewest veterans (3.9%), fewest Whites (2.9%), 45th most Blacks (30.3%), 15th most Latinos (62.8%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson

Representative Elliot Engel (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents Richard Hoffman ran in 2004 and 2006, and raised less than $100K each time; Lowey raised about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th highest income (median = $69K).

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-19

Location Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT

Representative  John Hall (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hall ousted Sue Kelly, with $1.6 million to her $2.5 million

Current opponents Kieran Lalor

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 15th most vulnerable Democratic seat.  However, Lalor looks like a nut job, so if there’s no better opponent….Several people have rule out running, see the WIKI

District: NY-20

Location Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gillibrand ousted John Sweeney, raising $2.5 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Sandy Treadwell, Richard Wager, John Wallace, Michael Rocque, possibly John Sweeney

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 8th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there

Representative  Michael McNulty (D) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 72-20

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents The Democrat is Tracey Brooks ; (others, too, please see the Wiki page, which I just updated) no declared Republican

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the other hand, if no Republicans run, it’s safe

District: NY-22

Location If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  George Phillips, Bruce Layman

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT

Representative John McHugh (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Johnson raised $160K to McHugh’s $750K

Current opponents Mike Oot

Demographics  8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-24

Location Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat; Arcuri raised $2 million and his opponent $1.5 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 38th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Of course, with no opponent, it’s safe

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse

Representative  Jim Walsh (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin Unopposed by Democrats

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Notes on opponents In 2006, Dan Maffei raised $900K to $1.8 million for Walsh

Current opponents Dan Maffei is the Democrat, no announced Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable.  On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the second most vulnerable Republican seat. And, if no one runs….it’s a gimmee!

District: NY-26

Location Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie

Representative  Tom Reynolds retiring

First elected  1998

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents Jack Davis ran in 2004 and 2006. In 2006, he raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5 million; in 2004, $1.4 million to $2.5 million

Current opponents Democrats: Jon Powers

Alice Kryzan .  Reynolds just announced his retirement, and Davis is considering running again, as well

Demographics 55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 27th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 79-21

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Higgins beat Nancy Naples, each raising about $1.5 million.  In 2006, Michael McHale raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list .  But, again, no opponent, so….

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip

Representative Louise Slaughter (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA

Representative Randy Kuhl (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-41

Bush margin 2004 56-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Eric Massa raised about $1.5 million, as did Kuhl

Current opponents Eric Massa

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this as the 14th most vulnerable Republican seat

The 2006 midterm elections took a big bite out of Northeast Republicans.  They went from contributing 35 seats to the majority party to providing just 24 seats to the minority.  Many survived by the skin of their teeth and others were not targeted in districts with a Democratic lean or a small Republican lean.  So how have the suruvivors fared?  I have compared the most recent fund raising report with the year end totals from 2005 (the same spot in the 2006 cycle).  Both a dummary report and a more detailed explaination follow.

The 24 Republicans as a group have 22.6% less cash on hand than 2 years ago ($12,702,583 vs. $16,403,287).  The average GOP member from this group has a balance of $529,274 compared to $683,470 two years ago.  Four members from this group have announced their retirement.  Two of those four have a slightly higher balance but two have much lower balances.  In addition, Tom Reynolds had a balance of $2.3 million as head of the NRCC;  he’s at $862 K now.  Still, the numbers are lower, even after adjustments.

Individual results follow below the fold:

CT  Chris Shays, CT 4

Shays is the only one of 3 CT Republicans to survive the last election.  In fact, the moderate congressman from the NYC suburbs is the last Republican House member from New England.  Shays has run a bunch of expensive and exhausting but ultimately successful re-electioin campaigns.  This time around, he’s facing Jim Himes and his fund raising is lagging.  At $797,413, Shays is down $95,000 from two years ago.  Of course, Joe Lieberman will not be campaigning for him either.

NY  Peter King, NY-3

Last cycle, Democrats hoped to entice a name opponent to take on King but failed.  Dave Mejias still managed to take a big bite out of King’s sizeable stash of cash.  Two years ago, King was a committee chairman and a “millionaire” (cash on hand of $1,058,043).  Now the chair is gone and cash is down more than 40% to $604,240.  Peter King is considerably weakened.

NY  Vito Fossella, NY-13

Fossella has come back from the dead, raising $304,000 to bring his cash up from $50,000 to $250,000 in the last quarter of 2007.  That said, Fossella is greatly weaker than two years ago.  Then, he had $572,952; now it’s $250,501.  A good candidate can take him out.  A medium candidate might but would probably drain him to the breaking point.  

NY  John McHugh,  NY-23

McHugh has been rumored to be a possible retiree.  Maybe one reason is his fund raising.  The veteran incumbent has uist $203,402 a drop of nearly 50% from two years ago.  Hmm.

NY  James Walsh,  NY-25

Walsh had a very tight battle against Dan Maffei in 2006 and this looked like a re-match.  Except that Walsh decided to retire.  Walsh had managed to keep pace with last cycle ($511,611 to $508,704 in 2005).  Maffei will have a huge edge over any fill-in.

NY  Tom Reynolds, NY-26

Reynolds was head of the NRCC last cycle and actually did a good job in a thankless assignment.  Compare his results to Liddy Dole (dollars, won-lost).  Reynolds managed to save more seats than were lost. Dole lost everything but Kentucky and had to get massive help from the RNC.  Still, Reynolds was raising national bucks two years ago and is not, now.  That means that Jon Powers may have a good shot in what was a 52-48 district last cycle.  $862,809 vs. $2,351,883 in 2006.

NY  Randy Kuhl, NY-29

Kuhl is a two termer who is struggling in a decent district for NYS Republicans.  It shows in the fund-raising.  Kuhl has $326,513 vs. $389,128 in 2005.  Shot gun Randy is vulnerable to Eric Massa.  Rumor had Randy expecting to lose his last general election.  Maybe this is the time.

NJ  Frank LoBiondo,  NJ-2

The district leans Democratic but LoBiondo had the support of local labor unions against a weak local Democrat.  That may not be the case as Jeff Van Drew, a “hot” state senator, is considering a run.  Lo Biondo has a nice stash ($1,391,321) but less than two years ago ($1,628,568).  It’s doable.  Too bad he wasn’t drained a bit more.

NJ  Jim Saxton,  NJ-3

Saxton is also running in a tough district.  Only he decided to hang it up.  Saxton’s treasure chest of $1,079,955 will (at best for the GOP) be spread out a bit.  That’s down from a hefty $1,434,892 but Jim was still a million dollar man.  Looking very good here as the Democrats have their preferred candidate.

NJ  Chris Smith,  NJ-4

Smith is up but still vulnerable.  He’s got a tough district and just $401,066 in the bank.  And yes, last quarter he was fund raising.  Smith was at just $225,195 last cycle.

NJ  Scott Garrett,  NJ-5

Garrett was first elected with 61% theen fell to 58% and 55% last cycle. He is way out of touch with his moderate district and would fit in with the deep south.  Any other Republican would breeze here.  Garrett?  Maybe not.  So, he has $352,001 this cycle vs. $291,452.  Last time around, reluctance to fund a challenger who had a primary badly hurt Paul Aronsohn who had to overcome Camille Abate.  This time around blind rabbi Ben Shulman also is hamstrung by the presence of Abate.  These “rules” are keeping the winger Garrett alive.  A little flexibility, guys?  (or drop out Camille).

NJ  Rodney Frelinghuysen,  NJ-11

Frelinghuysen’s family held a NJ House seat in the 1700s.  And the 1800s.  And the 1900s,  And the 2000s.  Still, in a district that mainly covers Morris County, Rodney has less cash to play with.  $551,141 vs. $751,195.  Rodney has tended to spread excess cash in $2,000 donations to candidates around the country.  This gives him far less clout than by using the NRCC but Rodney does it.  Maybe he’ll have less to spend this time.  Maybe Tom Wyka will gain a few points in a very slowly blue-ing district (i live there and it’s a long climb).

PA  Phil English,  PA-3

English represents northwest PA.  It is a district where Bush got 54% and English got 53% in 2006 against a lackluster opponent.  English has significantly bolstered his cash this time around as he tries to hold on against the tide.  He’s got $537,340 vs. $323,253 in 2005.  English is a massive guy and rumors do swirl of personal scandal. So this one is not perfectly safe.

PA  John Peterson, PA-5

Peterson is not a massive fundraiser.  He’s retired leaving a modest $117,457 in the kitty.

That’s slightly more than the 2005 sum of $114,865.

PA  Jim Gerlach,  PA-6

Gerlach is off two tight races but seems to be running out of gas.  Or cash.  Without a marquis opponent, he’s got just $500,238 vs. $1,074,827.  Are his days in the House numbered?

PA  Bill Shuster,  PA-9

Shuster is referred to as Bud Lite, because he is the son (and legacy) of ex-Congressman Bud Shuster.  The cash is low ($188,177)but more than last cycle ($138,699).  Time to give the pipsqueak a run?  (one of the great political nicknames was given to Thomas P. O’Neil III, Tip’s son: “tipsqueak”, he aged into the nose, too).

PA  Charles Dent,  PA-15

Dent nearly ran unopposed but a candidate who needed a write-in to make the ballot gave him a hard time in a Democratic lean district.  He’s certainly expecting a harder time this time around but is in the same cash situation.  COH is $535,091 vs. $542,891.  Is this the year the Lehigh Valley goes back blue (it was during the Clinton years).?

PA  Joe Potts,  PA-16

Potts has a decent stash in a friendly district but it is still down from two years ago.  It’s $175,897 vs. $283,335.  Is Joe starting to wind it down?  

PA  Tim Murphy,  PA-18

Murphy has the most cash of any Pennsylvania Republican in the House.  That’s actually a scary thing as it indicates that people like English, Gerlach, and Dent are in trouble.  For stat hounds, Murphy’s balance of $663,484 is down from the $685,083 of two years ago.  Bad news for Gerlach who was way ahead in this race two years ago.

PA  Todd Platts,  PA-19

Platts is the limbo incumbent.  How low can you go?  In Todd’s case it is an anemic $59,032, the lowest figure for any Republican incumbent in the region.  Todd has just $132,025 two years ago so this is nothing new.  he makes lists but so far no waves.

MD   Wayne Gilchrest,  MD-1

The moderate Gilchrest is anti-war and that’s enough to stir up a primary challenge.  It also got Wayne to fund raise a bit in a normally safe district ($424,364 vs. $214,862).  The money is going to the primary where a winger is given a real chance of knocking off the veteran congressman.

MD  Roscoe Bartlett,  MD-6

Bartlett is old (82 I think, and he looks it) and many thought he was headed for retirement.  Not so, as he filed for re-election.  That may come soon, though.  Bartlett has just $276,985 this time, down from $346,618.  It is a safe Republican district.

DE  Mike Castle,  DE At Large

Mike has been rumored for retirement and he’s been rumored as running for the Senate if Joe Biden retires.  The fund raising does not argue retirement.  Mike has the biggest cash on hand balance of any Republican House member in the Northeast and he’s growing it.  It was $1,212,788 and is now $1,527,167.  This is the most Democratic district in the nation represented by a Republican but in the clubby atmosphere of Delaware it “seems” safe.  Oddly, Joe Biden’s son, Beau, would seem like the most likely candidate to unseat the aging and sickly Castle.  Hint, hint.