Tag: WI

Today was the filing deadline in WI as well as the second day of New York’s four day filing period.  Wisconsin information is partial as some candidates have filed the paperwork but the state has not validated their signatures.

The big news is that each side in Wisconsin will field at least one candidate with no major party opposition.  For Republicans, James Sensenbrenner will face a primary challenger (Jim Burkee) and an Independent on the fall ballot (Robert Raymond) but no Democrat.  Gwen Moore (D, WI-4) will also face an Independent in the fall (Michael LaForest) but no Republican.  

Four Democrats appear to have qualified to oppose Paul Ryan in WI-1 (Paulette Garin, Mike Hebert, Marge Krupp, John Mogk).  They will meet in a September 9 primary.  Roger Kittelson has the signatures to oppose Tom Petri in WI-6 (unopposed in 2006).  He may (or may not) face Mark Wollom in a primary depending on the validation of signatures.

Signatures must also be validated for three Republicans seeking to make the ballot in Wisconsin.  Surprisingly, one of them is John Gard.  This may show a bit of weakness in his candidacy in WI-8.  The others are Peter Theron in WI-2 (vs. Tammy Baldwin) and Paul Stark in WI-3 (vs. Ron Kind).  Could there be another free ride?

In NY, two of the three Republican House incumbents who have actually expressed interest in retaining their seats have filed: Peter King and John McHugh.  It will be interesting to see if a candidate emerges in NY-13 and what the deal is in NY-25 and how many free rides come out of Democratic districts in the City.

The number of Republican House members who have not yet filed or announced their retirement is down to four in the entire country:  Steve Scalise (LA-1), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Mike Castle (DE-At Large), and Randy Kuhl (NY-29).  At this point, I expect all to run.  

On the Democratic side, the biggest question mark as we wrap up filing remains whether we will find an opponent in NY-3 for Peter King.  This is an eminently winnable seat.  I think there may be a cattle call when King retires.  Only when will that be?

An interesting side note is the number of high profile primary challenges to Democratic state senators and assembly members.  Reading the Albany Project blog or the Albany Times-Union (local politics don’t seem as big in the NY City dailies), you’d think the state senate had already changed hands.  

The end of round 2!

Washington has 9 representatives: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is June 6, primary is Aug 19

West Virginia has 3 representatives: 2 Democrats and 1 Republican

Filing deadline was Jan 26, primary is May 13

Wisconsin has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is July 7, primary is Sept. 9

Wyoming has 1 representative: A Republican

Filing deadline is May 30, primary Aug 19

District: WA-01

Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound

Representative Jay Inslee (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Larry Ishmael, who lost in 2006 ($22K raised, -8K net COH).  Inslee has $850K COH

Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)

Assessment safe

District: WA-02

Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound.  

Representative Rick Larsen (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 47-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Doug Roulstone raised $700K to Larsen’s $1.5 million.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Probably safe; certainly safe if no one runs.

District: WA-03

Location Southeastern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific

Representative Brian Baird (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 50-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Michael Messmore raised $150K to Baird’s $735K.  The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)

Assessment Probably safe, especially if no one runs

District: WA-04

Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima

Representative Doc Hastings (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 63-35

Notes on opponents In 2004, Sandy Matheson raised $400K to Hastings $560K.  In 2006, Richard Wright raised $293K to Hastings $622K.

Current opponents George Fearing ($63K raised, $20K net COH); Hastings has $250K net COH.

Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%), 61st most Republican

Assessment Potentially vulnerable.  Hastings is part of the Abramoff scandal.  

District: WA-05

Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla

Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers

First elected  2004

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Notes on opponents In 2004, Don Barbieri raised $1.6 million to Rodgers $1.5; in 2006, Peter Goldmark raised $1.2 million to Rodgers $1.9.

Current opponents Mark Mays (no funding info), Rodgers has $280K net COH

Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: WA-06

Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada.

Representative Norm Dicks (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: WA-07

Location Seattle

Representative Jim McDermott (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 79-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 19-79

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial), 23rd most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: WA-08

Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle

Representative Dave Reichert (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Darcy Burner and Reichert each raised about $3 million.  In 2004, Dave Ross and Reichert each raised about $1.5 million

Current opponents Darcy Burner is running again. She has raised $870K and has $600K COH (as of 12/31). Reichert has about $500K COH

Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 8th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list

District: WA-09

Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound

Representative Adam Smith (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)

Assessment Safe

District: WV-01

Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD

Representative Alan Mollohan (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Chris Wakim raised $700K to Mollohan’s $1.7 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment Safe, especially if no one runs

District: WV-02

Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD

Representative Shelley Moore Capito (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 57-41

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Callaghan raised $600K to Capito’s $2.3 million. The 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents

Thornton Cooper (no funding info)

Richard Robb – net COH about $1 K

Anne Barth has raised $330K since starting her campaign in late January.  Capito has $600K COH

Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  Barth is raising money at a great clip, and has Byrd’s endorsement. Superribbie ranks it the 65th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list

District: WV-03

Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA

Representative Nick Rahall (D)

First elected  1976

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Marty Gearhart (no funding info).  Rahall has over $1.2 million COH

Demographics 14th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment safe

District: WI-01

Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan.

Representative Paul Ryan (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Marge Krupp has raised about $50K and has about $4K net COH, Ryan has about $1.6 million COH

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: WI-02

Location Central southern WI, including Madison

Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents Dave Magnum ran both times and raised $650K in 2004 and $1 million in 2006.  Baldwin raised about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents Dave Redick (no funding info).  Baldwin has $360K COH.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: WI-03

Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire

Representative Ron Kind (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2004, Dale Schultz raised $500K to Kind’s $1.2 million; in 2006, Paul Nelson raised $250K to Kind’s $780K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: WI-04

Location Milwaukee and some suburbs

Representative Gwen Moore (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents

Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%), 50th most Democratic

Assessment

District: WI-05

Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee

Representative Jim Sensenbrenner (R)

First elected  1978

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 67-32

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Bryan Kennedy ran both times, raising about $300K each time, Sensenbrenner got $700K and $800K

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: WI-06

Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh

Representative Tom Petri (R)

First elected  1979

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 67-30

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Little money

Current opponents Roger Kittleson has raised $7K and has $2K COH, Petri has $877K COH

Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: WI-07

Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior

Representative Dave Obey

First elected  1969

2006 margin 62-35

2004 margin 86-9-5 against a Green and another minor party

Bush margin 2004 49-50

Notes on opponents Nick Reid raised $211K to Obey’s $1.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment safe

District: WI-08

Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay

Representative Steve Kagen (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents This seat was open in 2006, and Kagen raised $3.2 million to beat John Gard, who raised $2.8 million

Current opponents John Gard, who lost in 2006, is running again.  He’s raised $360K and has $285K COH; Kagen has raised $850K and has about $200K net COH

Demographics 74th most rural (44%), 68th most Whites (92.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable.   Superribbie ranks it the 6th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: WY-AL

Location Wyoming

Representative Barbara Cubin (R) who is retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 1,012 votes of 185,000

2004 margin 55-42

Bush margin 2004 69-29

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gary Trauner raised $950K to Cubin’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Ted Ladd raised $400K to Cubin’s $900K

Current opponents Gary Trauner is running again, no funding info. Several Republicans are running too.

Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%), 13th most Republican

Assessment Cubin’s retirement makes this harder, but I think there’s still a shot. Superribbie ranks it the 39th most vulnerable Republican seat.  On the DCCC list