The end of round 2!
Washington has 9 representatives: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is June 6, primary is Aug 19
West Virginia has 3 representatives: 2 Democrats and 1 Republican
Filing deadline was Jan 26, primary is May 13
Wisconsin has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is July 7, primary is Sept. 9
Wyoming has 1 representative: A Republican
Filing deadline is May 30, primary Aug 19
District: WA-01
Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound
Representative Jay Inslee (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 42-56
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Larry Ishmael, who lost in 2006 ($22K raised, -8K net COH). Inslee has $850K COH
Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)
Assessment safe
District: WA-02
Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound.
Representative Rick Larsen (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 47-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Doug Roulstone raised $700K to Larsen’s $1.5 million. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Probably safe; certainly safe if no one runs.
District: WA-03
Location Southeastern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific
Representative Brian Baird (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 62-38
Bush margin 2004 50-48
Notes on opponents In 2006, Michael Messmore raised $150K to Baird’s $735K. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)
Assessment Probably safe, especially if no one runs
District: WA-04
Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima
Representative Doc Hastings (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 63-35
Notes on opponents In 2004, Sandy Matheson raised $400K to Hastings $560K. In 2006, Richard Wright raised $293K to Hastings $622K.
Current opponents George Fearing ($63K raised, $20K net COH); Hastings has $250K net COH.
Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%), 61st most Republican
Assessment Potentially vulnerable. Hastings is part of the Abramoff scandal.
District: WA-05
Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla
Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers
First elected 2004
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Notes on opponents In 2004, Don Barbieri raised $1.6 million to Rodgers $1.5; in 2006, Peter Goldmark raised $1.2 million to Rodgers $1.9.
Current opponents Mark Mays (no funding info), Rodgers has $280K net COH
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WA-06
Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada.
Representative Norm Dicks (D)
First elected 1976
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 69-31
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-07
Location Seattle
Representative Jim McDermott (D)
First elected 1988
2006 margin 79-16
2004 margin 81-19
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial), 23rd most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: WA-08
Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle
Representative Dave Reichert (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Darcy Burner and Reichert each raised about $3 million. In 2004, Dave Ross and Reichert each raised about $1.5 million
Current opponents Darcy Burner is running again. She has raised $870K and has $600K COH (as of 12/31). Reichert has about $500K COH
Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 8th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
District: WA-09
Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound
Representative Adam Smith (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 63-34
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)
Assessment Safe
District: WV-01
Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD
Representative Alan Mollohan (D)
First elected 1982
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Notes on opponents In 2006, Chris Wakim raised $700K to Mollohan’s $1.7 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Safe, especially if no one runs
District: WV-02
Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD
Representative Shelley Moore Capito (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 57-41
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Callaghan raised $600K to Capito’s $2.3 million. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents
Thornton Cooper (no funding info)
Richard Robb – net COH about $1 K
Anne Barth has raised $330K since starting her campaign in late January. Capito has $600K COH
Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Barth is raising money at a great clip, and has Byrd’s endorsement. Superribbie ranks it the 65th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
District: WV-03
Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA
Representative Nick Rahall (D)
First elected 1976
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 65-35
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Marty Gearhart (no funding info). Rahall has over $1.2 million COH
Demographics 14th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment safe
District: WI-01
Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan.
Representative Paul Ryan (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Marge Krupp has raised about $50K and has about $4K net COH, Ryan has about $1.6 million COH
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-02
Location Central southern WI, including Madison
Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Notes on opponents Dave Magnum ran both times and raised $650K in 2004 and $1 million in 2006. Baldwin raised about $1.5 million each time
Current opponents Dave Redick (no funding info). Baldwin has $360K COH.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: WI-03
Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire
Representative Ron Kind (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2004, Dale Schultz raised $500K to Kind’s $1.2 million; in 2006, Paul Nelson raised $250K to Kind’s $780K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Probably safe
District: WI-04
Location Milwaukee and some suburbs
Representative Gwen Moore (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 70-28
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents
Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%), 50th most Democratic
Assessment
District: WI-05
Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee
Representative Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
First elected 1978
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 67-32
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents Bryan Kennedy ran both times, raising about $300K each time, Sensenbrenner got $700K and $800K
Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 74th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-06
Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh
Representative Tom Petri (R)
First elected 1979
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 67-30
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Notes on opponents Little money
Current opponents Roger Kittleson has raised $7K and has $2K COH, Petri has $877K COH
Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-07
Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior
Representative Dave Obey
First elected 1969
2006 margin 62-35
2004 margin 86-9-5 against a Green and another minor party
Bush margin 2004 49-50
Notes on opponents Nick Reid raised $211K to Obey’s $1.4 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment safe
District: WI-08
Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay
Representative Steve Kagen (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents This seat was open in 2006, and Kagen raised $3.2 million to beat John Gard, who raised $2.8 million
Current opponents John Gard, who lost in 2006, is running again. He’s raised $360K and has $285K COH; Kagen has raised $850K and has about $200K net COH
Demographics 74th most rural (44%), 68th most Whites (92.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 6th most vulnerable Democratic seat.
District: WY-AL
Location Wyoming
Representative Barbara Cubin (R) who is retiring
First elected 1994
2006 margin 1,012 votes of 185,000
2004 margin 55-42
Bush margin 2004 69-29
Notes on opponents In 2006, Gary Trauner raised $950K to Cubin’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Ted Ladd raised $400K to Cubin’s $900K
Current opponents Gary Trauner is running again, no funding info. Several Republicans are running too.
Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%), 13th most Republican
Assessment Cubin’s retirement makes this harder, but I think there’s still a shot. Superribbie ranks it the 39th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list