plf515 – Swing State Project

Congressional races 2010: Texas

Previous diaries

Summary:

TX has 32 representatives, 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

TX-10 (R)

TX-17 (D)

TX-23 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from AOL

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: TX-01

Location Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Louie Gohmert (R)

VoteView 362

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over an independent

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Current opponents None declare

Demographics 55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 17th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-02

Location Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts! This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston. But it also extends north a bit. map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Ted Poe (R)

VoteView 438

First elected 2004

2008 margin 89-11 over a libertarian

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 56-43

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 94th most Blacks (19%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-03

Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Sam Johnson (R)

VoteView 428

First elected 1991

2008 margin 60-38 over Tom Daley

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 86-8-6 over minor parties

Obama margin 42-57

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents No declared Democrats

Demographics 61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-04

Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Ralph Hall (R) (may retire)

VoteView R + 21

First elected 1980

2008 margin 69-29 over Glenn Melancon

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 68-30

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 44th most rural (50.4%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Hall is the oldest person in the House (born 1923). But, even if he retires, this is solidly Republican territory.

District: TX-05

Location Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)

VoteView 441

First elected 2002

2008 margin 84-16 over a Libertarian

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 35th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-06

Location Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Joe Barton (R)

VoteView 391

First elected 1984

2008 margin 62-36 over Ludwig Otto

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents Ludwig Otto

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-07

Location Western outskirts of Houston map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative John Culberson (R)

VoteView 357

First elected 2000

2008 margin 56-42 over Michael Skelly

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%)

Assessment Vaguely possible, but not at all likely

District: TX-08

Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA map

Cook PVI R + 25

Representative Kevin Brady (R)

VoteView 347.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 73-25 over Kent Hargett

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 25-74

Bush margin 2004 73-28

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 45th lowest income (median = $40K), 8th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-09

Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative Al Green (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 2004

2008 margin 94-6 over a libertarian

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 72-27

Obama margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-10

Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Michael McCaul (R)

VoteView 343

First elected 2004

2008 margin 54-43 over Larry Joe Doherty

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents A primary; then Jack McDonald is considering it and has already raised over $600K.

Demographics 77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%).

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; McDonald should go for it!

District: TX-11

Location Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood map

Cook PVI R + 28

Representative Michael Conaway (R)

VoteView 413

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over a libertarian

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 77-22

Obama margin 24-75

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 3rd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-12

Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Kay Granger (R)

VoteView 358

First elected 1996

2008 margin 68-31 over Tracey Smith

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics 63rd most Latinos (23.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-13

Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM map

Cook PVI R + 29

Representative Mac Thorberry (R)

VoteView 393

First elected 1994

2008 margin 78-22 over Roger Waun

2006 margin 74-23

2004 margin 92-8 against a libertarian

Obama margin 23-76

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 2nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-14

Location Most of the Gulf Coast of TX map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Ron Paul (R)

VoteView 444

First elected 1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 33-66

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics 60th most Latinos (24.9%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-15

Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)

VoteView 164

First elected 1996

2008 margin 66-32 over Eddie Zamora

2006 margin 62-24-15 against two Republicans

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)

Assessment Increasingly safe

District: TX-16

Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)

VoteView 177

First elected 1996

2008 margin 82-10 against an independent

2006 margin 79-21 against a libertarian

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 44-57

Current opponents Tim Besco

Demographics 43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-17

Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Chet Edwards (D)

VoteView 201

First elected 1990

2008 margin 53-45 over Rob Curnock

2006 margin 58-40

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents Rob Curnock is running again, as are other Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican

Assessment Can’t be considered totally safe, but not that vulnerable

District: TX-18

Location Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 24

Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1994

2008 margin 77-20 over John Faulk

2006 margin 77-19

2004 margin 89-6-5 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 28-72

Current opponents John Faulk is running again, as is Tex Christopher

Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 35th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-19

Location Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles. Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock map

Cook PVI R + 26

Representative Randy Neugebauer (R)

VoteView 420

First elected 2003

2008 margin 72-25 over Dwight Fullingim

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 58-40

Obama margin 27-72

Bush margin 2004 78-23

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 5th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-20

Location San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)

VoteView 117.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 72-25 over Robert Litoff

2006 margin 87-13 against a libertarian

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 45-55

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-21

Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Lamar Smith (R)

VoteView 351

First elected 1986

2008 margin 80-20 against a libertarian

2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)

2004 margin 61-30

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents Lainey Melnick

Demographics 25th most veterans (16.8%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-22

Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Pete Olson (R)

VoteView 241

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-45 over Nick Lampson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: TX-23

Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)

VoteView 191

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-42 over Lyle Larson

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Francesco Canseco, maybe others

Demographics 74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).

Assessment Not completely safe, although Rodriguez has raised almost $500K.

District: TX-24

Location Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Kenny Marchant (R)

VoteView 411

First elected 2004

2008 margin 56-41 over Tom Love

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 47th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-25

Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)

VoteView 122

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-30 over George Morovich

2006 margin 67-26

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)

Assessment safe

District: TX-26

Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Michael Burgess (R)

VoteView 369

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-36 over Ken Leach

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 66-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents Neil Durrance (errr, someone tell him to fix the pic on his website to show his face)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment

District: TX-27

Location The southern Gulf coast map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)

VoteView 175

First elected 1982

2008 margin 58-38 over Willie Vaden

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents James Duerr

Demographics 41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)

Assessment Pretty safe

District: TX-28

Location Southern TX along the Mexican border map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Henry Cuellar (D)

VoteView 216

First elected 2004

2008 margin 69-29 over Jim Fish

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 54-46

Obama margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-29

Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Gene Green (D)

VoteView 173.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 75-24 over Eric Story

2006 margin 74-24

2004 margin 94-6 against a libertarian.

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents Frank Mazzapica

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-30

Location Dallas and southern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

VoteView 60

First elected 1992

2008 margin 83-16 over Fred Wood

2006 margin 80-18

2004 margin 93-7 against a libertarian

Obama margin 82-18

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 26th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-31

Location North and west of Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Carter (R)

VoteView 361

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Brian Ruiz

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 29th most veterans (16.4%)

Assessment long shot

District: TX-32

Location Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Pete Sessions (R)

VoteView 406

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-41 over Eric Roberson

2006 margin 56-41

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Steve Love

Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%)

Assessment Safe

Congressional races 2010: SC, SD, TN

Previous diaries

Summary:

SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

SD has 1 rep: A Democrat

TN has 9 reps: 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

SC-01 (R)

District: SC-01

Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Henry Brown (R)

VoteView 317

First elected 2000

2008 margin 52-48 over Linda Ketner

2006 margin 60-38

2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)

Obama margin 42-56

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents A primary and then possibly Robert Dobbs(others are considering)

Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)

Assessment At least possible; 2008 was close

District: SC-02

Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Joe Wilson (R)

VoteView 404

First elected 2001

2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.

Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)

Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn’t that far back in 2008. But not likely.

District: SC-03

Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor

VoteView 430

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 35-64

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents A bunch of Republicans are running; the only confirmed Democrat is Jane Dyer

Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican

Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican

District: SC-04

Location Northern SC, bordering NC map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Bob Inglis (R)

VoteView 402.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 70-29

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents There is a big Republican primary, but no confirmed Democrat.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track.

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-05

Location map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative John Spratt (D)

VoteView 198.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)

Assessment looks pretty safe

District: SC-06

Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative James Clyburn (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 1992

2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: SD-01

Location The whole state map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)

VoteView 215

First elected 2004

2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien

2006 margin 69-29

2004 margin 53-46

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Current opponents Thad Wasson is the only confirmed Republican, others are considering

Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).

Assessment Safe

District: TN-01

Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Phil Roe (R)

VoteView 394.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 72-25 over Rob Russell

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 29-70

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 16th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-02

Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville. Borders NC map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Duncan (R)

VoteView 434

First elected 1988

2008 margin 69-27 over Doug Vandagriff

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 79-19

Obama margin 34-64

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 40th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-03

Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Zach Wamp (R) Retiring to run for governor

VoteView 353.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents Although there are lots of people considering running, the only confirmed Democrat is Paula Flowers

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-04

Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Lincoln Davis (D)

VoteView 221

First elected 2002

2008 margin 59-38 over Monty Lankford

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 55-44

Obama margin 34-64

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Monty Lankford

Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-05

Location Nashville and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Jim Cooper (D)

VoteView 197

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-31 over Gerald Donovan

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-06

Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Bart Gordon (D)

VoteView 209

First elected 1984

2008 margin 74-26 over an independent

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Dave Evans and Gary Mann are in a Republican primary.

Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-07

Location Another strange shaped district. Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)

VoteView 407.5

First elected 2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Randy Morris

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 33-66

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents Gary Rabidoux

Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 28th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-08

Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative John Tanner (D)

VoteView 220

First elected 1988

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 74-26

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents James Hart and Donn James in a Republican primary.

Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-09

Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Steve Cohen (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2006

2008 margin No Republican

2006 margin 60-22

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents There is a primary, but no declared Republican running

Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

Congressional races 2010: PA and RI

Previous diaries

Summary:

PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

RI has 2 representatives, both D.

Possibly vulnerable:

PA-06 (R)

PA-07 (D)

PA-10 (D)

PA-16 (R)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: PA-01

Location Philadelphia and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 35

Representative Robert Brady (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 86-13

Obama margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-02

Location Philadelphia and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Chaka Fattah (D)

VoteView 77

First elected 1994

2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang

2006 margin 89-9

2004 margin 88-12

Obama margin 90-10

Bush margin 2004 12-87

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: PA-03

Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents Elaine Surma, possibly others

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has raised an impressive $521K, and Surma has no website yet and no fundraising numbers. Should be OK, but Dahlkemper is a freshman in a swing district.

District: PA-04

Location Western PA, bordering OH map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Jason Altmire (D)

VoteView 236

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006, and has now beat her twice

District: PA-05

Location Northern PA, bordering NY map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Glenn Thompson (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).

Assessment

District: PA-06

Location West of Philadelphia map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Jim Gerlach (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents The only confirmed Democrat is Doug Pike, others are considering running. Confirmed Republicans include Curt Schroder and Ryan Costello, with others considering.

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment A prime pickup possibility. This district is trending Democratic, and the Gerlach won narrowly in every election.

District: PA-07

Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats; those considering running include Bryan Lentz and Greg Vitali

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but by no means a sure thing.

District: PA-08

Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Patrick Murphy (D)

VoteView 187

First elected 2006

2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion

2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K)

Assessment Looks fairly safe

District: PA-09

Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Bill Shuster (R)

VoteView 340

First elected 2001

2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-10

Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Christopher Carney (D)

VoteView 234

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Christopher Bain, possibly other.

Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Do you have to be named Christopher to run here? 🙂 This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has raised $350K.

District: PA-11

Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)

VoteView 169.5

First elected 1984

2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents Possible primary; no confirmed Republican.

Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment What happened between 2004 and 2008? This might be vulnerable.

District: PA-12

Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Murtha (D)

VoteView 169.5

First elected 1974

2008 margin 58-42 over William Russell

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Russell is running again, as is Tim Burns. And Murtha has a primary challenge from Ryan Bucchianeri

Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%). 3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment The primary looks easy for Murtha, and, although Russell has raised a huge amount of money (over $1 million), he lost to Murtha pretty badly in 2008, and probably will again.

District: PA-13

Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)

VoteView 162

First elected 2004

2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 56-44

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 43-56

Current opponents Damian Dachowski

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: PA-14

Location Pittsburgh and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Mike Doyle (D)

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate

2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 70-29

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: PA-15

Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Charles Dent (R)

VoteView 255

First elected 2004

2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett

2006 margin 54-43

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents John Callahan (site under construction) is running and Sam Bennett may run again

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot, but possible. Still, if a Democrat can’t win here when Obama won by 13 ….; although some have said that Bennett had some local problems.

District: PA-16

Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Joe Pitts (R)

VoteView 405

First elected 1996

2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Lois Herr (this website needs some more info)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Pitts has not raised much for an incumbent with a challenger (only about $100K). Lois Herr called me up as a potential donor, and she sounds good. Might be vulnerable.

District: PA-17

Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Tim Holden (D)

VoteView 192.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Frank Ryan

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this Republican district. Should be safe.

District: PA-18

Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Tim Murphy (R)

VoteView 259

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O’Donnell

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: PA-19

Location Southern PA including Gettysburg map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Todd Platts (R)

VoteView 254

First elected 2000

2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo

2006 margin 91-4 against a Green

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: RI-01

Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)

VoteView 89

First elected 1994

2008 margin 69-24 over Jon Scott

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 36-62

Current opponents John Loughlin

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: RI-02

Location Most of the state map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Jim Langevin (D)

VoteView 146

First elected 2000

2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria

2006 margin 73-27 against an independent

2004 margin 75-21

Obama margin 61-37

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Current opponents A primary challenge, and then Zaccaria again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

Congressional races 2010: OH, OK, OR

Previous diaries

Summary:

OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

OK has 5 representatives: 1 D, 4 R

OR has 5 representatives: 4 D, 1 R

Possibly vulnerable:

OH-01 (D)

OH-02 (R)

OH-15 (D)

OH-16 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Steve Dreihaus (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 51-50

Current opponents Steven Chabot

Demographics 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there’s a rematch. Vulnerable. Both Dreihaus and Chabot have raised about $400K.

District: OH-02

Location Central part of southern OH, bordering KY map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Jean Schmidt (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 374.5

First elected 2005

2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin. Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents There are 4 confirmed Democrats:

Vic Wulsin

Jack Krikorian (no web site)

Jim Parker

and

Todd Book

Demographics 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)

Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, and this district is becoming more Democratic by the day – although it is still a Republican stronghold. I met Wulsin in 2008, and I like her.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike Turner (R)

VoteView 278

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Jim Jordan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 426

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Bob Latta (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 345

First elected 2007

2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

VoteView 205.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Donald Allen

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%), 62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks safe.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Steve Austria (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Boehner (R)

VoteView 407.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 1982

2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

VoteView 2

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Marcia Fudge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 85-14

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Current opponents Safe

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)

Assessment

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

VoteView 316

First elected 2000

2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Paula Brooks (obviously not a full web site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable; I don’t know anything about Paula Brooks.

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

VoteView 98.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

VoteView 264

First elected 1994

2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O’Neill

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-44

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents David Ryon and Steve Stivers

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Boccieri (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of rumors and people considering running, see the WIKI

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable

District: OH-17

Location Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

VoteView 109

First elected 2002

2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents No Republicans, but a bunch of Democrats are considering primaries, see the WIKI

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe for the Democrat, Ryan or other

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Zack Space (D)

VoteView 217

First elected 2006

2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-52

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents Jeannette Moll, possibly others

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Looks fairly safe; Space fits the district.

District: OK-01

Location Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Sullivan (R)

VoteView 401

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Dan Boren (D)

VoteView 225

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Dan Arnett and David Edmonds

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Boren isn’t exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama. He seems safe.

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

VoteView 315

First elected 1994

2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Obama margin 27-73

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Tom Cole (R)

VoteView 330

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents No Democrats, but there is a primary

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents A lot of Republicans will probably run in a primary for this safe R seat

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)

Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins

District: OR-01

Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Wu (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 132.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Obama margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Stephen Broadhead and Rob Corneilles

Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Greg Walden (R) May run for governor

VoteView 280

First elected 1998

2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 43-54

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Safe for whichever Republican gets it, even if Walden runs.

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood. map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1996

2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Obama margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Peter DeFazio (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 142

First elected 1986

2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Sid Leken an Jaynee Germond

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-05

Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR. map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Kurt Schrader (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of Repubs considering a run, see the WIKI

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe. Schrader has raised $400K

Congressional races 2010: North Carolina, North Dakota

Previous diaries

Summary:

NC has 13 representative: 8 D and 5 R

ND has 1 representative: A Democrat

Possibly vulnerable – I don’t see any

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative G.K. Butterfield (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 69.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 against Dean Stephens

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Bob Etheridge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 168

First elected 1996

2008 margin 67-31 against Dan Mansell

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment

District: NC-03

Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Walter Jones (R)

VoteView 294.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-34 against Craig Webber

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 69-32

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 39th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Price (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 98.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 63-37 against William Lawson

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents 3 Republicans have declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Looks safe, I am not sure why there is so much R interest

District: NC-05

Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Virginia Foxx (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 432

First elected 2004

2008 margin 58-42 over Roy Carter

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Richard Coble (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 383

First elected 1984

2008 margin 67-32 over Teresa Bratton

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

VoteView 223

First elected 1996

2008 margin 67-32 against William Breazeale

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents Breazeale is running again

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Larry Kissell (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-45 against Robin Hayes

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents There is a lot of R interest, see the Wiki, but only Linwood Faulk is confirmed

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Kissell ousted Hayes fairly easily, this should be safe

District: NC-09

Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Sue Myrick (R)

VoteView 402.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 62-36 against Harry Taylor

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

VoteView 417

First elected 2004

2008 margin 58-42 against Dan Johnson

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 34th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

VoteView 232

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-36 against Carl Mumpower

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Possibly a primary; no confirmed Republican, but a lot of potential candidates, see the Wiki.

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%)

Assessment Shuler seems to fit this district, looks pretty safe

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, NC’s “Black” district. Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem. It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th map

Cook PVI D + 16

Representative Melvin Watt (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 57.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 72-28 against Ty Cobb

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Brad Miller (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 151

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 against Hugh Webster

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

VoteView 194.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 62-38 against Duane Sand

2006 margin 64-35

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

Congressional races 2010: New York

Previous diaries

Summary:

NY has 29 congresspeople: 26 D and 3 R; possibly vul:

NY-03 (R) (if King runs for Senate)

NY-13 (D)

NY-20 (D)

NY-23 (R)

NY-24 (D)

NY-29 (D)

One note on geography – in NYC, a lot of districts are bizarrely shaped, but this doesn’t relate to Dem. vs. Repub., as all of the districts are Democratic, and all but one solidly so. You have to look at the maps to appreciate them.

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island map

Cook PVI 0

Representative Timothy Bishop (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2001

2008 margin 58-42 over Lee Zeldin

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Lee Zeldin, possibly a Republican primary first vs. Randy Altschuler

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K)

Assessment Bishop beat Zeldin easily, looks safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Steve Israel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 117.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin 66-34 over Frank Stalzer

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location Mostly south shore of central Long Island map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Peter King (R) May run for Senate

VoteView 271

First elected 1992

2008 margin 64-36 over Graham Long

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Current opponents A lot of Democrats are ‘considering’ running; if King goes for the Senate seat, a lot of Republicans will doubtless run as well.

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment It depends on what King does, if he runs, it’s likely to stay Republican; if he goes for the Senate, then it’s a possible pickup, but still, the district went for McCain.

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 1996

2008 margin 64-36 over Jack Martins

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Nonconfirmed

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1983

2008 margin 70-28 over Elizabeth Berney

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern Queens, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 36

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

VoteView 69.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 89-11

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Queens and Bronx, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative Joseph Crowley (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1998

2008 margin 85-15 over William Britt

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Obama margin 79-20

Bush margin 2004 74-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%), 28th most most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, southern Brooklyn, and a skinny line connecting them map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 50

First elected 1992

2008 margin 80-20 over Grace Lin

2006 margin 85-14

2004 margin 81-19

Obama margin 74-25

Bush margin 2004 72-27

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian); I don’t have the figure, but it also has one of the highest concentrations of Jews.

Assessment Safe

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin 92-8 over conservative party candidate

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Edolphus Towns (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 28.5

First elected 1982

2008 margin 94-6 over Salvatore Grupico

2006 margin 92-6

2004 margin 91-7

Obama margin 91-9

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Current opponents Kevin Powell

Demographics 27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-11

Location Central Brooklyn, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Yvette Clarke (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 22

First elected 2006

2008 margin 93-7 over Hugh Carr

2006 margin 90-8

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 90-9

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 5th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 20.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 89-11 over Alan Romaguera

2006 margin 90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Obama margin 86-13

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian).

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Michael McMahon (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 61-33 over Robert Staniere

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This used to be a Republican district, until Fosella got caught driving drunk and committing bigamy. I am not sure how vul. McMahon is. Staniere was not a real test. McMahon has raised almost $600K, and has over $450K COH.

District: NY-14

Location East side of Manhattan, and western Queens map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative Carolyn Maloney (D) may run for Senate

VoteView 122.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 79-19 over Robert Heim

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Obama margin 78-21

Bush margin 2004 74-25

Current opponents None confirmed. If Maloney goes for Senate, all bets are off.

Demographics 15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe for Maloney who whatever Democrat runs, if she leaves.

District: NY-15

Location Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens map

Cook PVI D + 41

Representative Charlie Rangel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 109

First elected 1970

2008 margin 87-9 over Ed Daniels

2006 margin 94-6

2004 margin 91-7

Obama margin 93-6

Bush margin 2004 90-9

Current opponents

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), 2nd most Democratic

Assessment Rangel is corrupt, and too conservative for this district, but a primary is probably hopeless. Rangel was born in 1930 … will he ever retire? In any case, a safe D seat.

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 41

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

VoteView 8.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 97-3 over Ali Mohamed

2006 margin 95-5

2004 margin 95-5

Obama margin 95-5

Bush margin 2004 89-10

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics The most Democratic district in the USA; 3% may be the lowest percentage gotten by a major party candidate

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location Northern Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson map

Cook PVI D + 18

Representative Elliot Engel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin 79-21 over Robert Goodman

2006 margin 76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Obama margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC) map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

VoteView 28.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin 68-32 over Jim Russell

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 70-30

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics

Assessment Safe

District: NY-19

Location Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative John Hall (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2006

2008 margin 58-42 over Kieran Lalor

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents John MacEnroe (no not John McEnroe) and Greg Ball are in a Republican primary

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment With two wins under his belt, Hall looks more or less safe

District: NY-20

Location Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Scott Murphy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2009

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment After an extremely close race, this has to be counted as vulnerable.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Paul Tonko (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2008

2008 margin 62-35 over James Buhrmaster

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NY-22

Location If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1992

2008 margin 66-34 over George Phillips

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents George Phillips

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John McHugh (R) Retiring to be Secretary of the Army

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents Since Obama chose McHugh, there is a lot of interest in this race. Confirmed Democrats include Mike Oot, who ran and lost badly to McHugh in 2008 (I cannot find a website for the 2010 run) and Danny Francis (I couldn’t find a site for him, either).

Demographics 8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Vulnerable. We have to see who the candidates are.

District: NY-24

Location Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

VoteView 160.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 51-49 over Richard Hanna

2006 margin 54-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-48

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable, although Arcuri has already raised over $400K.

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Dan Maffei (D)

VoteView 263

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-42 over Dale Sweetland

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Current opponents Paul Bertan

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Maffei won his 2008 race pretty easily (after losing a close one in 2006), and Obama also won pretty easily; not completely safe, but not bad. Maffei has raised almost $900K.

District: NY-26

Location Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Chris Lee (R)

VoteView 309

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-40 over Alice Kryzan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 46-52

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

VoteView 115.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 74-23 over Daniel Humiston

2006 margin 79-21

2004 margin 51-49

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Looks pretty safe

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip map

Cook PVI D + 15

Representative Louise Slaughter (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 50.5

First elected 1986

2008 margin 78-22 over David Crimmen

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Eric Massa (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Randy Kuhl

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents Tom Reed; a Republican primary seems likely

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Massa barely ousted Kuhl, so it’s not completely safe. Massa has raised over $500K

Congressional races 2010: NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM

Previous diares

Summary:

NE has 3 reps: all R

NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R

NH has 2 reps: both D

NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R

NM has 3 reps: All D

Possibly vulnerable:

NE-02 (R) (a little)

NV-03 (D) (a little)

NH-01 (D) (a little)

NH-02 (D)

NJ-03 (D)

NJ-07 (R)

NM-02

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha. Borders MO and IA map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

VoteView 267

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 over Max Yashrin

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location Omaha and suburbs map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Lee Terry (R)

VoteView 373

First elected 1998

2008 margin 52-48 over Jim Esch (D)

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Possible. NE-02 wen narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup.

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

VoteView 371

First elected 2006

2008 margin 77-23 over Jay Stoddard

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-68

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Current opponents Rebekah Davis (this website needs help!)

Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NV-01

Location Las Vegas map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Shelley Berkley Not confirmed

VoteView 180

First elected 1998

2008 margin 68-28 over Kenneth Wegner

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 66-31

Obama margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Dean Heller (R)

VoteView 384

First elected 2006

2008 margin 52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Paul Reeves (I couldn’t find a website, but he’s on Facebook) is running and others considering.

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment Possible. The 2008 race wasn’t exactly decisive.

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Dina Titus (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 47-42 over Jon Porter

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot are considering.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment A little vulnerable. Winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

VoteView 134

First elected 2006

2008 margin 52-46 over Jeb Bradley

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents At least two Republicans: Frank Guinta and Robert Bestani.

Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008. Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has got $180K COH.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents A whole bunch of people considering (see the Wiki). Confirmed Democrats include: Ann McLane Kuster (more developed site is in the works) and Mark Fernald. Both websites paint fairly progressive portraits.

Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment An open seat is never safe.

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Robert Andrews (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 72-26 over Dale Glading

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

VoteView 244

First elected 1994

2008 margin 59-39 over David Kurkowksi.

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot. Although this is an increasingly D district, LoBiondo seems popular.

District: NJ-03

Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA. map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Adler (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48 over Chris Myers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable, Adler is a freshman in a swing district

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton. Bordering PA and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

VoteView 243

First elected 1980

2008 margin 66-32 over Josh Zeitz

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 67-32

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Long shot

District: Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs NJ-05

Location map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

VoteView 415

First elected 2002

2008 margin 56-42 over Dennis Shulman

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment It would be so nice to get rid of this troglodyte.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Frank Pallone (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 35.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin 67-32 over Robert McLeod

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter . map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Leonard Lance (R)

VoteView 252

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-42 over Linda Stender

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable.

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Bill Pascrell

VoteView 67

First elected 1996

2008 margin 71-28 over Ron Stratten

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Steven Rothman (D)

VoteView 102.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 68-32 over Vincent Micco

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents There’s a Democratic primary

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Donald Payne (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1988

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin No major party opposition

Obama margin 87-13

Bush margin 2004 82-18

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 16th most Blacks (56.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Rodney Freylingheusen (R)

VoteView 276

First elected 1994

2008 margin 62-37 over Tom Wyka

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Rush Holt (D)

VoteView 38

First elected 1998

2008 margin 63-36 over Alan Bateman

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Mike Halfacre

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Save

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap map

Cook PVI D + 21

Representative Albio Sires (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 2006 (special election)

2008 margin 75-22 over Joseph Turula

2006 margin 78-19

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert map

Cook PVI 275

Representative Martin Heinrich (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-45 over Darren White

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Jon Barela

Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%), 92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Not completely safe, but should be OK. Heinrich has raised an impressive $600K to Barela’s $73K

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Harry Teague (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 56-44 over Edward Tinsley

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Steve Pearce

Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment A district that went for McCain can’t be considered safe for a freshman D. But, OTOH, he did win in 2008. Teague has raised $620 K already, to Pearce’s $63K.

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT. map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Ben Ray Lujan (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 57-31 over Daniel East

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Probably safe

Congressional races 2010: NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM

Previous diares

Summary:

NE has 3 reps: all R

NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R

NH has 2 reps: both D

NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R

NM has 3 reps: All D

Possibly vulnerable:

NE-02 (R) (a little)

NV-03 (D) (a little)

NH-01 (D) (a little)

NH-02 (D)

NJ-03 (D)

NJ-07 (R)

NM-02

The meaning, importance of Blue Dogs (and how to get rid of them)

I, personally, am on the left wing of the Democratic party. On that political compass thing, I get about – 9 on social and – 8 on economic issues. I like my rep (Nadler, NY-08) pretty well. But NY-08 is not the country. And, although I wish I lived in a country where Nadler was a typical representative, and Sanders a typical Senator, I don’t.

In this diary, I will attempt to use data and analysis to answer several questions. Using data and analysis is what I do for a living (I’m a statistician) and I find it fun (I’m a geek). The questions:

Who are the Blue Dogs?

Why are they Blue Dogs?

Should we get rid of Blue Dogs and if so, Which ones? and How?

Are Blue Dogs as bad as Republicans?

more below the fold

Who are Blue Dogs?

There seem to be two common uses of the term. One is for a group of self-identified members of congress – Democrats in the House who have centrist voting patterns. But not all these people are the most conservative Democrats, and some very conservative House Dems are not self-identified. Another use is for any conservative Democrat, especially in the House. I’m going to use this second definition. So, who are they?

First, we need some measure of conservatism vs. liberalism. There are several possibilities, but one I like a lot is the scale developed by Keith Poole and his colleagues called optimal classification, and available at VoteView. I gave more details on this, and why I like it, in this diary. Next, we need to decide how conservative a person has to be to be a Blue Dog. Any decision is arbitrary, so, let’s look at the 50 most conservative Democrats in the 110th House. (The list is below, in the table).

Why are they Blue Dogs?

I think the positions a representative takes are going to be some mix of his or her own views and his or her perceptions of what voters want. I’m not sure how this mix is balanced, and it probably varies from person to person. Certainly there is some overlap. But people who are way out of step with their district are likely to face strong challenges, and may lose.

So, people are Blue Dogs from a combination of their own views and their constituents. We don’t have good ways of looking at the representatives’ own views, but we do have some for constituents. One good look is how they vote for POTUS. The nice thing about this is that it doesn’t depend on polls, it isn’t issue by issue specific, and it’s easily available. I’ll look at Obama % and Kerry %.

If a representatives votes (represented by VoteView rank) are out of line with the constituents’ views (represented by the Cook number), then it’s likely that those views are personal; and those are districts where challenges are more likely to succeed. If the rep’s views are too conservative, they may get replaced by a Republican; if too liberal, they may get replaced by a more progressive Democrat.

Should we get rid of Blue Dogs; which ones?

Clearly, if we can replace a BD with a progressive, we should. But BDs are better than Repubs (see below). One way to judge the likelihood of this is by the POTUS vote; a district that went for Obama may be ready for a progressive.

So, let’s look at some data:

Rep and district Rank Obama % Kerry % Notes Lampson TX-22 1 41 36 Now R Cazayoux LA-06 2 41 40 Now R Childers MS-01 3 37 37 Barrow GA-12 4 36 34 Marshall GA-08 5 43 39

Altmire PA-04 6 44 45 Donnelly IN-02 7 54 43 Carney PA-10 8 45 40 Ellsworth IN-08 9 47 38 Shuler NC-11 10 47 43 Giffords AZ-08 11 46 47 Mitchell AZ-05 12 47 45 Hill IN-09 13 48 40 Foster IL-14 14 55 44 Native son O Matheson UT-02 15 40 31 Bean IL-08 16 56 44 Native son O Boren OK-02 17 35 41 Gillibran NY-20 18 51 46 Murphy (D) McIntyre NC-07 19 47 44 Mahoney FL-16 20 47 43 Now R Davis TN-04 21 34 41 Tanner TN-08 22 43 47 Taylor MS-04 23 32 31 Melancon LA-03 24 37 41 Space OH-18 25 45 43 Cuellar TX-28 26 56 46 Native son B Herseth SD-AL 27 45 38 Peterson MN-07 28 47 43 Ross AR-04 29 39 48 Boyda KS-02 30 43 40 Now R Chandler KY-06 31 43 41 Cramer AL-05 32 38 41 Griffith (D) Gordon TN-06 33 37 40 Skelton MO-04 34 38 35 Salazar CO-03 35 48 44 Wilson OH-06 36 48 49 Boyd FL-02 37 45 46 Perlmutt CO-07 38 59 51 Primary! Klein FL-22 39 52 53 Primary? Costa CA-20 40 60 51 Primary! Cardoza CA-18 41 59 49 Primary! Edwards TX-17 42 32 30 Davis AL-07 43 74 65 Retiring! Spratt SC-05 44 46 42 Cooper TN-05 45 56 52 Primary! Moore KS-03 46 51 44 Pomeroy ND-AL 47 45 36 Boswell IA-03 48 53 48 Holden PA-17 49 48 42 Lipinski IL-03 50 64 59 Primary?

Native son O indicates that the vote for Obama in Illinois districts may not be indicative of a trend to Democrats; similarly, native son B indicates that TX districts may be less conservative than Bush’s numbers appear.

The two most conservative Democrats were replaced by Republicans. And of the ten most conservative, only one district voted for Obama or for Kerry.

The most conservative representative to be replaced by a Democrat was Giilibrand, and Murphy’s election was, as you may recall, very close.

The most conservative Democrat whose district went for both Kerry and Obama is Perlmutter, in CO-07. This looks like a primary possibility; especially since CO-07 gave Obama a considerable margin. We also have Klein and Costa being too conservative for their districts. Davis (AL-07) is way too conservative for his district, but he’s running for statewide office ….let’s get a real progressive in there, pronto! Lipinski (IL-03) looks like a perfect person to primary, and we tried in 2008.

This list gives us 6 races to concentrate on; if we can replace those 6 with more progressive people, that would be excellent for us. It is unlikely that any will be lost to the Repubs.

How should we get rid of Blue Dogs?

There are two ways, I think. Above, I outlined a strategy for identifying BD who can be safely and sensibly primaried. But that’s just one way to get rid of Blue Dogs. The other way is to get on the ground and work to convince the people that liberal ideas are good. Get them writing to their congress people. Get them active! While I found 6 people above who do not represent their constituents’ views; there are an unfortunate number who do represent their views, because there are too many conservatives in the USA. It’s hard to convince a RWNJ that liberalism/progressivism is good. But, people who are centrists are halfway there already.

This works two ways: First, if the BD hear from a lot of people, they might change their votes (it could happen!). And, if they don’t change their votes? Well, elections come every two years.

Are Blue Dogs as bad as Republicans?

The short answer is “no”.

The slightly longer answer is to look at the Vote View methodology and notice that it perfectly separates the parties (this is usually not the case; prior to the 109th House, there was usually some overlap).

Another slightly longer answer is to say that the most conservative Democrat is somewhat similar to the most liberal Republican; but more similar to typical Democrats than to typical Republicans.

The really full answer is to look at individuals. None of the Blue Dogs is anywhere near as bad as, say, Flake of AZ-06, or any of the other RWNJ. A lot of votes in congress are lopsided; if a bill passes 400-20 then voting for it is not a big deal. In general, voting on close votes is more crucial. In the 110th Congress, here is a list of votes with close margins. But the list is mostly not too informative, as it doesn’t give much detail about the bills; still, we can probably assume that we would want people to take the Democratic position rather than the Republican one.

Let’s look at those 50 Blue Dogs again, and their votes on some close bills that were about policy and of general interest.

I’ve listed: Vote 189 on taxpayer assistance, which was tied (21 D in favor, 207 opposed; 3 R opposed, 189 in favor).

vote 316 which amended appropriations for Homeland Security; passed by 3 votes (209 D in favor, 16 opposed).

vote 814 which was a broad appropriations bill, failed 212-216 (216 opposed, 14 in favor; R unanimous in favor).

vote 382 on the budget (passed 214-210, 214 D in favor, 14 opposed; R unanimous opposed)

and

vote 658 which is (I am pretty sure) the big Obama stimulus package (passed 213-208, 213 D in favor, 16 opposed)

A D indicates the person voted the way most of the Democrats voted; R Republican, and ? no data or not voting

Rep and district 189 316 814 382 658 Lampson TX-22 R D D R R Cazayoux LA-06 D ? ? R R Childers MS-01 ? ? ? R R Barrow GA-12 R R R R D Marshall GA-08 R R R ? D

Altmire PA-04 R R R D D Donnelly IN-02 R R D R D Carney PA-10 R D R D D Ellsworth IN-08 R R R R D Shuler NC-11 R R R ? R Giffords AZ-08 R R R R D Mitchell AZ-05 R R D R D Hill IN-09 R D R R R Foster IL-14 R ? ? R D Matheson UT-02 R R R R D Bean IL-08 R R R ? D Boren OK-02 R R R R D Gillibran NY-20 R D D D R McIntyre NC-07 R D R D D Mahoney FL-16 R D D D D Davis TN-04 D D D D D Tanner TN-08 D R D D R Taylor MS-04 D D R D R Melancon LA-03 D D D D D Space OH-18 R R D D D Cuellar TX-28 D D D D D Herseth SD-AL D D D D R Peterson MN-07 D D D D D Ross AR-04 D D D D D Boyda KS-02 D D D D D Chandler KY-06 R D D D D Cramer AL-05 D R D D D Gordon TN-06 D D D D D Skelton MO-04 D D D D D Salazar CO-03 D D D D D Wilson OH-06 D D D D D Boyd FL-02 D D D D R Perlmutt CO-07 D D D D D Klein FL-22 D D D D D Costa CA-20 D D D D ? Cardoza CA-18 D D D D D Edwards TX-17 D D D D D Davis AL-07 D D D D D Spratt SC-05 D D D D D Cooper TN-05 D D D D R

Moore KS-03 D D D D D Pomeroy ND-AL D D D D D Boswell IA-03 D R D D D Holden PA-17 D D D D D Lipinski IL-03 D D D D D

That is, of the 50 most conservative Democrats, every one voted with the Democrats on at least one of these 5 close and key votes.

If even a large handful of these Democrats were replaced by Republicans, some of those bills would have failed.

Congressional races 2010: MN, MS, MO, MT

Previous diares

Summary:

MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R

MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R

MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R

MT has 1 rep, a Repub.

Possibly vulnerable:

MN-03 (R) MN-06 (R)

MO-09 (R) (maybe)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: MN-01

Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Tim Walz (D)

VoteView 190

First elected 2006

2008 margin 63-33 over Brian Davis

2006 margin 53-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment Safe

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Kline (R)

VoteView 397

First elected 2002

2008 margin 57-43 over Steve Sarvi

2006 margin 56-40

2004 margin 56-40

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010. Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Erik Paulsen (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%), 80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)

Assessment This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.

District: MN-04

Location St. Paul and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2000

2008 margin 69-31 over Ed Matthews

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Obama margin 64-32

Bush margin 2004 34-57

Current opponents Ed Matthews

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MN-05

Location map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

VoteView 11

First elected 2006

2008 margin 71-22 over Barb White

2006 margin 56-21

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 40th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)

VoteView 399

First elected 2006

2008 margin 46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson. It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).

2006 margin 50-42 over John Binkowski

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)

Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Bachmann is vulnerable. She’s insane. But she’s already raised $600K. On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K. For a challenger, that’s impressive. I have no figures for Tinklenburg.

District: MN-07

Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 214

First elected 1990

2008 margin 72-28 over Glenn Menzie

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment Safe. OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.

District: MN-08

Location map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative James Oberstar (D)

VoteView 107

First elected 1974

2008 margin 68-32 over Michael Cummins

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Travis Childers (D)

VoteView 239

First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)

2008 margin 54-44

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment Safe. Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here. Easily.

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

VoteView 45

First elected 1993

2008 margin 69-31 over Richard Cook

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe.

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast. Borders both LA and AL map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Gregg Harper (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 63-37 over Joel Gill

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents Joel Gill

Demographics 18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%

Assessment Long shot.

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

VoteView 219

First elected 1989

2008 margin 75-25 over John McKay

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS. I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%). At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.

Assessment Safe.

District: MO-01

Location St Louismap

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative William Lacy Clay

VoteView 39.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Obama margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 75-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: MO-02

Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Todd Akin (R)

VoteView 412

First elected 2000

2008 margin 62-35 over Bill Haas

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MO-03

Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 153

First elected 2004

2008 margin 66-30 over Chris Sander

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 53-45

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Ike Skelton (D)

VoteView 208

First elected 1976

2008 margin 66-34 over Jeff Parnell

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 66-32

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican

Assessment Safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 2004

2008 margin 64-36 over Jacob Turk

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 55-42

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MO-06

Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Sam Graves (R)

VoteView 382

First elected 2000

2008 margin 59-37 over Kay Barnes

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-35

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.

District: MO-07

Location map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki

Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican

Assessment This looks like a long shot for any Democrat

District: MO-08

Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 265

First elected 1996

2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Allen

2006 margin 72-26

2004 margin 72-27

Obama margin 36-62

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 50-47 over Judy Baker

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%)

Assessment Not impossible, but if we couldn’t win it as an open seat, it’s going to be tough to win against an incumbent

District: MT-AL

Location Whole state map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 304

First elected 2000

2008 margin 64-32 over John Driscoll

2006 margin 61-36

2004 margin 65-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant

Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here.