Previous diaries
Summary:
NC has 13 representative: 8 D and 5 R
ND has 1 representative: A Democrat
Possibly vulnerable – I don’t see any
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: NC-01
Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative G.K. Butterfield (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 69.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 70-30 against Dean Stephens
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)
Assessment Safe
District: NC-02
Location Central NC, including Raleigh map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Bob Etheridge (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 168
First elected 1996
2008 margin 67-31 against Dan Mansell
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)
Assessment
District: NC-03
Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Walter Jones (R)
VoteView 294.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 66-34 against Craig Webber
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 69-32
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 39th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: NC-04
Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative David Price (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 98.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 63-37 against William Lawson
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents 3 Republicans have declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Looks safe, I am not sure why there is so much R interest
District: NC-05
Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Virginia Foxx (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 432
First elected 2004
2008 margin 58-42 over Roy Carter
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 59-41
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: NC-06
Location Central NC map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Richard Coble (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 383
First elected 1984
2008 margin 67-32 over Teresa Bratton
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 73-27
Obama margin 36-63
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican
Assessment
District: NC-07
Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Mike McIntyre (D)
VoteView 223
First elected 1996
2008 margin 67-32 against William Breazeale
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 73-27
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Breazeale is running again
Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: NC-08
Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Larry Kissell (D) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-45 against Robin Hayes
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents There is a lot of R interest, see the Wiki, but only Linwood Faulk is confirmed
Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)
Assessment Kissell ousted Hayes fairly easily, this should be safe
District: NC-09
Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Sue Myrick (R)
VoteView 402.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 62-36 against Harry Taylor
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)
Assessment Long shot
District: NC-10
Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Patrick McHenry (R)
VoteView 417
First elected 2004
2008 margin 58-42 against Dan Johnson
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 36-63
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 34th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: NC-11
Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Heath Shuler (D)
VoteView 232
First elected 2006
2008 margin 62-36 against Carl Mumpower
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Possibly a primary; no confirmed Republican, but a lot of potential candidates, see the Wiki.
Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%)
Assessment Shuler seems to fit this district, looks pretty safe
District: NC-12
Location A really weird, snaky district, NC’s “Black” district. Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem. It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th map
Cook PVI D + 16
Representative Melvin Watt (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 57.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 72-28 against Ty Cobb
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 71-29
Bush margin 2004 37-63
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: NC-13
Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Brad Miller (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 151
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-34 against Hugh Webster
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 59-41
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 47-52
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: ND-AL
Location The whole state map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)
VoteView 194.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-38 against Duane Sand
2006 margin 64-35
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe
Kissell “should be safe”? How much are you willing to bet on that, especially if people don’t treat that race as top-tier and operate a major GOTV drive?
All of the Republican incumbents except Patrick McHenry are over 65 and Howard Coble is way up there. McHenry is kind of flamboyantly uber conservative and flamboyantly gay at the same time (not that he admits his gay-ness). Something could develop in one of these races although nothing should.
I suspect that because the pharmaceutucal industry is a major employer in NC-4 (Research Triangle Park), Republicans are having pipe drams about the district and health reform. Nuts but sometimes they do that.