Tag: ND

Previous diaries

Summary:

 NC has 13 representative: 8 D and 5 R

 ND has 1 representative: A Democrat

 Possibly vulnerable – I don’t see any

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative G.K. Butterfield (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 69.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin  70-30 against Dean Stephens

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Bob Etheridge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 168

First elected 1996

2008 margin 67-31 against Dan Mansell

2006 margin  67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment

District: NC-03

Location  Most of the Atlantic coast of NC map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Walter Jones (R)

VoteView 294.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-34 against Craig Webber

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin  71-29

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 69-32

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 39th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Price (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 98.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 63-37 against William Lawson

2006 margin  65-35

2004 margin  64-36

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents 3 Republicans have declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Looks safe, I am not sure why there is so much R interest

District: NC-05

Location  Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Virginia Foxx (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 432

First elected 2004

2008 margin 58-42 over Roy Carter

2006 margin  57-43

2004 margin  59-41

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Richard Coble (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 383

First elected 1984

2008 margin 67-32 over Teresa Bratton

2006 margin  71-29

2004 margin  73-27

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

VoteView 223

First elected 1996

2008 margin 67-32 against William Breazeale

2006 margin  73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents Breazeale is running again

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location  Central part of southern NC, bordering SC map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Larry Kissell (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-45 against Robin Hayes

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents There is a lot of R interest, see the Wiki, but only Linwood Faulk is confirmed

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Kissell ousted Hayes fairly easily, this should be safe

District: NC-09

Location  A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Sue Myrick (R)

VoteView 402.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 62-36 against Harry Taylor

2006 margin  67-33

2004 margin  70-30

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

VoteView 417

First elected 2004

2008 margin 58-42 against Dan Johnson

2006 margin  62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 34th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

VoteView 232

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-36 against Carl Mumpower

2006 margin  54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Possibly a primary; no confirmed Republican, but a lot of potential candidates, see the Wiki.

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%)

Assessment Shuler seems to fit this district, looks pretty safe

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, NC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th map

Cook PVI D + 16

Representative Melvin Watt (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 57.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 72-28 against Ty Cobb

2006 margin  67-33

2004 margin  67-33

Obama margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA  map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Brad Miller (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 151

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 against Hugh Webster

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

VoteView 194.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 62-38 against Duane Sand

2006 margin  64-35

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

Continuing through the alphabet

North Carolina has 13 representatives: 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats

The filing deadline was Feb 29, primary is May 6

North Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline is April 11, primary is June 10

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound

Representative George Butterfield (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment  Unopposed

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh

Representative Bob Etheridge (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2004, Billy Creech raised $130K to Etheridge’s $1 million. In 2006, Dan Mansell raised little

Current opponents None

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment Unopposed

District: NC-03

Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC

Representative Walter Jones (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 68-32

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents   Marshall Adame

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary

Representative David Price (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Augustus Cho

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-05

Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA

Representative Virginia Foxx (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Harrell raised $400K to Foxx’s $1.2 million.  In 2006, Roger Sharpe raised $100K

Current opponents Roy Carter

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC

Representative Howard Coble (R)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Teresa Sue Bratton

Jay Ovittore and

Johnny Carter

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment This is a solidly Republican seat, but Coble is getting old (born 1931) and hasn’t had a serious fight in a while…

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Will Breazeale

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC,

Representative Robin Hayes (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 329 votes out of 121,000

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Larry Kissell raised $800K to Hayes’ $2.5 million; in 2004, Beth Troutman raised $200K to Hayes’ $1.6 million

Current opponents Larry Kissell

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 20th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it is on the DCCC list

District: NC-09

Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC

Representative Susan Myrick (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ross Overby

Harry Taylor , possibly Bill Glass

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Steve Ivester

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shuler ousted Charles Taylor, raising $ 1.8 million to Taylor’s $4.4 million

Current opponents John Armor, Carl Mumpower

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%), 90th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, SC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th

Representative Mel Watt (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Notes on opponents Ada Fisher ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004 he raised $100K, in 2006, $400K.  Watt raised about $500K each time

Current opponents Ada Fisher again

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA

Representative Brad Miller (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Vernon Robinson raised $2.2 million to Miller’s $1.8 million.  In 2004, Virginia Johnson raised $350K to Johnson’s $1.2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 63-34

Notes on opponents In 2004, Duane Sand raised $1 million to Pomeroy’s $1.8 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe