Previous diaries
Summary:
NY has 29 congresspeople: 26 D and 3 R; possibly vul:
NY-03 (R) (if King runs for Senate)
NY-13 (D)
NY-20 (D)
NY-23 (R)
NY-24 (D)
NY-29 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
One note on geography – in NYC, a lot of districts are bizarrely shaped, but this doesn’t relate to Dem. vs. Repub., as all of the districts are Democratic, and all but one solidly so. You have to look at the maps to appreciate them.
District: NY-01
Location Eastern Long Island map
Cook PVI 0
Representative Timothy Bishop (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2001
2008 margin 58-42 over Lee Zeldin
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 56-44
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Lee Zeldin, possibly a Republican primary first vs. Randy Altschuler
Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K)
Assessment Bishop beat Zeldin easily, looks safe
District: NY-02
Location Central Long Island map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Steve Israel (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 117.5
First elected 2000
2008 margin 66-34 over Frank Stalzer
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 11th highest income (median = $71K)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-03
Location Mostly south shore of central Long Island map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Peter King (R) May run for Senate
VoteView 271
First elected 1992
2008 margin 64-36 over Graham Long
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Current opponents A lot of Democrats are ‘considering’ running; if King goes for the Senate seat, a lot of Republicans will doubtless run as well.
Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)
Assessment It depends on what King does, if he runs, it’s likely to stay Republican; if he goes for the Senate, then it’s a possible pickup, but still, the district went for McCain.
District: NY-04
Location Western part of southern Long Island map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 1996
2008 margin 64-36 over Jack Martins
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Nonconfirmed
Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-05
Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Gary Ackerman (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1983
2008 margin 70-28 over Elizabeth Berney
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-28
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 37-63
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-06
Location Southeastern Queens, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Gregory Meeks (D)
VoteView 69.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 89-11
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: NY-07
Location Queens and Bronx, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 26
Representative Joseph Crowley (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 54
First elected 1998
2008 margin 85-15 over William Britt
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 74-25
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%), 28th most most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-08
Location West side of Manhattan, southern Brooklyn, and a skinny line connecting them map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Jerrold Nadler (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 50
First elected 1992
2008 margin 80-20 over Grace Lin
2006 margin 85-14
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 74-25
Bush margin 2004 72-27
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian); I don’t have the figure, but it also has one of the highest concentrations of Jews.
Assessment Safe
District: NY-09
Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Anthony Weiner (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin 92-8 over conservative party candidate
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 55-44
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-10
Location A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Edolphus Towns (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 28.5
First elected 1982
2008 margin 94-6 over Salvatore Grupico
2006 margin 92-6
2004 margin 91-7
Obama margin 91-9
Bush margin 2004 13-86
Current opponents Kevin Powell
Demographics 27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: NY-11
Location Central Brooklyn, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Yvette Clarke (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 22
First elected 2006
2008 margin 93-7 over Hugh Carr
2006 margin 90-8
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 90-9
Bush margin 2004 13-86
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 5th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: NY-12
Location Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn map
Cook PVI D + 33
Representative Nydia Velazquez (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 20.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 89-11 over Alan Romaguera
2006 margin 90-10
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 86-13
Bush margin 2004 19-80
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian).
Assessment Safe
District: NY-13
Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Michael McMahon (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 61-33 over Robert Staniere
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This used to be a Republican district, until Fosella got caught driving drunk and committing bigamy. I am not sure how vul. McMahon is. Staniere was not a real test. McMahon has raised almost $600K, and has over $450K COH.
District: NY-14
Location East side of Manhattan, and western Queens map
Cook PVI D + 26
Representative Carolyn Maloney (D) may run for Senate
VoteView 122.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 79-19 over Robert Heim
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 78-21
Bush margin 2004 74-25
Current opponents None confirmed. If Maloney goes for Senate, all bets are off.
Demographics 15th fewest veterans (6.0%)
Assessment Safe for Maloney who whatever Democrat runs, if she leaves.
District: NY-15
Location Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens map
Cook PVI D + 41
Representative Charlie Rangel (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 109
First elected 1970
2008 margin 87-9 over Ed Daniels
2006 margin 94-6
2004 margin 91-7
Obama margin 93-6
Bush margin 2004 90-9
Current opponents
Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), 2nd most Democratic
Assessment Rangel is corrupt, and too conservative for this district, but a primary is probably hopeless. Rangel was born in 1930 … will he ever retire? In any case, a safe D seat.
District: NY-16
Location South Bronx, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 41
Representative Jose Serrano (D)
VoteView 8.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 97-3 over Ali Mohamed
2006 margin 95-5
2004 margin 95-5
Obama margin 95-5
Bush margin 2004 89-10
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics The most Democratic district in the USA; 3% may be the lowest percentage gotten by a major party candidate
Assessment Safe
District: NY-17
Location Northern Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson map
Cook PVI D + 18
Representative Elliot Engel (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin 79-21 over Robert Goodman
2006 margin 76-24
2004 margin 76-22
Obama margin 72-28
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 44th most Blacks (30.4%)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-18
Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC) map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Nita Lowey (D)
VoteView 28.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 68-32 over Jim Russell
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 62-38
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics
Assessment Safe
District: NY-19
Location Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative John Hall (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Kieran Lalor
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents John MacEnroe (no not John McEnroe) and Greg Ball are in a Republican primary
Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)
Assessment With two wins under his belt, Hall looks more or less safe
District: NY-20
Location Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Scott Murphy (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents
Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)
Assessment After an extremely close race, this has to be counted as vulnerable.
District: NY-21
Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Paul Tonko (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 77
First elected 2008
2008 margin 62-35 over James Buhrmaster
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: NY-22
Location If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)
VoteView 17
First elected 1992
2008 margin 66-34 over George Phillips
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents George Phillips
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: NY-23
Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative John McHugh (R) Retiring to be Secretary of the Army
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Current opponents Since Obama chose McHugh, there is a lot of interest in this race. Confirmed Democrats include Mike Oot, who ran and lost badly to McHugh in 2008 (I cannot find a website for the 2010 run) and Danny Francis (I couldn’t find a site for him, either).
Demographics 8th most rural (65.3%),
Assessment Vulnerable. We have to see who the candidates are.
District: NY-24
Location Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Michael Arcuri (D)
VoteView 160.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 51-49 over Richard Hanna
2006 margin 54-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable, although Arcuri has already raised over $400K.
District: NY-25
Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Dan Maffei (D)
VoteView 263
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-42 over Dale Sweetland
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-50
Current opponents Paul Bertan
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Maffei won his 2008 race pretty easily (after losing a close one in 2006), and Obama also won pretty easily; not completely safe, but not bad. Maffei has raised almost $900K.
District: NY-26
Location Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Chris Lee (R)
VoteView 309
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-40 over Alice Kryzan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 46-52
Bush margin 2004 55-43
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 55th most Whites (92.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: NY-27
Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Brian Higgins (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 74-23 over Daniel Humiston
2006 margin 79-21
2004 margin 51-49
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Looks pretty safe
District: NY-28
Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Louise Slaughter (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 50.5
First elected 1986
2008 margin 78-22 over David Crimmen
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K)
Assessment Safe
District: NY-29
Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Eric Massa (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-49 over Randy Kuhl
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Tom Reed; a Republican primary seems likely
Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment Massa barely ousted Kuhl, so it’s not completely safe. Massa has raised over $500K
If health care reform and the stimulus become popular then a freshman Republican from a swing district who fought those measures could lose reelection over it.
Dan Maffei ran and lost a nail-biter in 2006 before winning easily for an open seat in 2008. 2008, of course, was his second election campaign, not his “first race.”
IIRC the loss was to Walsh.
It goes to NY 1.
29 percent black is a pretty high number for an upstate NY district even with two or three urban centers. Was this an area of significant migration? Sorry if these questions are strange or insensitive but high areas of minority concentration outside the south and big cities are fascinating to me.